Cnotes 2018 - 2019 NBA Thru The Playoffs-Picks/Trends/News !

[Cnotes53]

Warriors beat Blazers 119-117 in OT for NBA Finals berth
May 20, 2019
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PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) The Golden State Warriors swept their way to a fifth straight NBA Finals, getting triple-doubles from Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in a 119-117 overtime victory over the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday night.

Green had 18 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists, and made a key 3-pointer in overtime. Curry added 37 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists. He and Green became the first teammates to have triple-doubles in the same playoff game.

The Warriors will face the winner of the Eastern Conference finals between Toronto and Milwaukee. The Bucks lead that series 2-1 with Game 4 on Tuesday night in Canada.

The Warriors erased another big deficit, coming back from 17 down after erasing an 18-point deficit in Game 3 and a 17-point hole in Game 2.

''We've been here before. We've seen everything, every experience you can imagine. So we relied on that,'' Curry said.

Playing without Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala and DeMarcus Cousins, the Warriors became the first team to reach five straight finals since the Boston Celtics went to 10 in a row from 1957-66.

Damian Lillard, playing with separated ribs, had 28 points and 12 assists for Portland. He missed a 3-point attempt as time ran out in the extra period. Meyers Leonard added a career-high 30 points along with 12 rebounds.

The Warriors were up 114-113 in the extra period after Green missed the first of a pair of free throws. CJ McCollum's jumper from out front briefly gave Portland the lead but Alfonzo McKinnie's basket put Golden State back ahead and Green made a 3-pointer to push it to 199-115 with 39 seconds left.

Lillard made a layup and Curry missed a jumper to give Portland back the ball. Facing stifling defense from both Green and Klay Thompson, Lillard couldn't get off a shot but the ball went out of bounds in the scramble. The Blazers got it back with 3.3 seconds left but Lillard's final shot didn't fall.

For the third straight game the Trail Blazers led at the half. They stretched the lead to 17 points in the third quarter, but the Warriors went on a 12-0 run to close within 95-90 early in the final period.

Green's long baseline jumper gave the Warriors a 108-106 lead with 3:30 left. Lillard's 3-pointer put the Blazers back ahead and Leonard's dunk extended it to 111-108 with just under 2 minutes to go.

After Thompson's 3-pointer tied it up again both Curry and Lillard missed 3s. Curry made a 3 from the corner with 10.7 seconds left but he was called for traveling first and it didn't count.

Lillard's layup bounced around the rim and out and the game went to overtime.

Iguodala was out because of a sore left calf. The veteran swingman, who is averaging 10.1 points in the playoffs, was hurt in the second half of Saturday's Game 3 victory.

It was not known how long he'd be out, but the Warriors said an MRI Sunday was clear.

Golden State was already missing Durant because of a sore right calf. It's unknown when the two-time NBA Finals MVP will return.

Lillard separated his ribs in Game 2 but was playing through the pain. He averaged 33 points in the first-round playoff series against Oklahoma City, hitting a series-clinching 3-pointer in Game 5, but he struggled against Golden State's defensive focus on him.

Portland, playing with urgency in an elimination game, pulled in front 30-28 in the opening quarter on CJ McCollum's layup and free throw, but Curry answered on the other end with a step-back 3-pointer.

Portland went ahead 59-50 after back-to-back 3-pointers from Leonard, who finished with five 3s in the first half.

Curry hit a 3-pointer with 2.6 seconds left in the half to close the Warriors within 69-65 at the break.

Portland pushed the lead to 83-72 on McCollum's 3-pointer. After he made another 3 to push the lead to 91-78, he gestured to the crowd to make noise.

TIP INS:

Warriors: Curry has made a 3-pointer in a playoff-record 106 games. ... Quarterback Colin Kaepernick was among the fans at the game, sitting a few seats down from the Warriors bench. ... Per Elias Sports and the Warriors, Curry had a streak of 81 consecutive free throws made in the fourth quarter and overtime in the postseason - before he missed one with 9:25 left in the game against the Blazers.

Trail Blazers: Leonard, who didn't even play in five of Portland's postseason games, had a playoff-high 16 points in Game 3. After scoring 25 in the first half, fans at the Moda Center chanted his name.

HONORING LOWE

Former Oregon wide receiver Keanon Lowe got a standing ovation when he was introduced to the crowd at the Moda Center in the first quarter. Lowe, a coach at Portland's Parkrose High School, stopped a student who came to the school armed with a shotgun on Friday.

''I saw the look on his face, the look in his eyes, I looked at the gun, I realized it was a real gun and then my instincts just took over,'' Lowe, 27, said about wrestling the gun away from the teenager. Lowe spoke to reporters before the game.

The suspect, 19-year-old Angel Granados-Diaz, pleaded not guilty earlier Monday during a brief court hearing.

 

[Cnotes53]

SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY MAY 21, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:35 PM Milwaukee Bucks Toronto Raptors Scotiabank Arena

SCHEDULE FOR THURSDAY MAY 23, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:35 PM Toronto Raptors Milwaukee Bucks Fiserv Forum

SCHEDULE FOR SATURDAY MAY 25, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:35 PM Milwaukee Bucks Toronto Raptors Scotiabank Arena

SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY MAY 27, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:35 PM Toronto Raptors Milwaukee Bucks Fiserv Forum


********************************


NBA PLAYOFF RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

05/20/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
05/19/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
05/18/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
05/17/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
05/16/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
05/15/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/14/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
05/12/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/10/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
05/09/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
05/08/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/07/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
05/06/2019 1-2-1 33.33% -6.00
05/05/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/04/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/03/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.00
05/02/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/01/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals..............20-29-1 40.81% -60.00


******************************


BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS


05/20/2019.............0 - 1....................-5.50.....................0 - 1.................-5.50..............-11.00
05/19/2019.............0 - 1....................-5.50.....................0 - 1.................-5.50..............-11.00
05/18/2019.............0 - 1....................-5.50.....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............-0.50
05/17/2019............,0 - 1....................-5.50.....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............-0.50
05/16/2019.............0 - 1....................-5.50.....................0 - 1..................-5.50.............-11.00
05/15/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/14/2019.............1 - 0...................+5.00....................0 - 1..................-5.50..............-0.50
05/12/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1..................-0.50.............-1.00
05/10/2019.............0 - 1....................-5.50....................0 - 1...................-5.50.............-11.00
05/09/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1...................-0.50............-11.50
05/08/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1...................-0.50.............-1.00
05/07/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1...................-0.50.............-11.50
05/06/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 0..................+5.00.............-6.00
05/05/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-1.00
05/04/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/03/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-11.50
05/02/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/01/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................1 - 0.................+5.00..............-0.50


Totals...................7 - 18.....................-64.00..................13 - 11.................+4.50...........-59.50


**************************

APRILS NBA BEST BETS


Totals....................23 - 21..................-0.50.................25 - 27................-19.50..............-20.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday?s 6-pack

Odds for this week?s Charles Schwab Challenge:

9-1? Justin Rose

12-1? Jon Rahm

14-1? Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth

16-1? Xander Schauffele

20-1? Francesco Molinari

25-1? Casey, DeChambeau, Finau

Quote of the Day
?We?re all motivated by different things. I?ve always been somebody who if you tell me I can?t do something, I?m going to give everything I have to spite you. Whether that?s a good quality or not, that?s just who I am.?
UNLV basketball coach TJ Otzelberger

Tuesday?s quiz
Which college football bowl game is played in El Paso every December?

Monday?s quiz
In the movie Dave, Ben Kingsley played the Vice-President.

Sunday?s quiz
Former Colorado Rockie Todd Helton (246) has the most career hits against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

******************************

Tuesday?s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but??

13) There was some grumbling in Toronto Monday when last week?s AL Player of the Week, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, was given a day off for the Blue Jays? Victoria Day game with Boston, a game the Red Sox won easily, 12-2.

Why give a 20-year old kid a day off when he is hot? When you have a big crowd in the house on a holiday? When you can use him at DH and at least let him get four AB?s in front of the home crowd, which is rooting for a lousy Toronto team this season?

12) Strange stat: Boston?s Andrew Benintendi is 2-for-35 in his first at-bat of a game; he is hitting .326 in all his other AB?s.

11) The softball coach at Oklahoma, who has won four national titles, makes $1M a year. We were guessing Sunday night how much softball coaches get paid, so I did a google search and was stunned to find that out.

10) Washington Redskins? LB Reuben Foster was carted off the field Monday with a knee injury during the Redskins? OTAs.

9) Tampa Bay Bucs released DT Gerald McCoy, who was set to make $13M this season.

8) Mets? OF Yoenis Cespedes suffered multiple fractures in his right ankle on his ranch down in Florida, so who knows when he?ll be back in the major leagues. Unlike Gerald McCoy, Cespedes will keep getting paid, because baseball contracts are guaranteed- most NFL contracts aren?t.

7) Conference USA reached a broadcast deal with NFL Network, which will show 10 of their games next season.

6) ESPN?s Hubie Brown said over the weekend that he has worked with 21 different TV play-by-play broadcasters during his career, including Al Michaels, Brent Musburger, Marv Albert, Dick Stockton and Mike Breen. He is 85 years old and still going strong. Amazing guy.

5) Toronto?s Ryan Feierabend returned to the majors Saturday as a knuckleballer; he is the first lefty knuckleballer in the major leagues since Baltimore?s Danny Boone, in 1990.

4) All the passengers on a flight at JFK Airport in NYC had to deplane before takeoff Monday afternoon due to a guy who refused to turn his phone off after they closed the boarding door. Police removed him, but only after everyone else was off the plane first.

3) Former Florida State QB Deondre Francois will walk on at Florida Atlantic this fall; hr got tossed from FSU because of a couple of domestic violence incidents. He will compete for the QB job with LY?s starter Chris Robison, who was suspended this spring due to an investigation into an alleged sexual battery that led to no charges being filed.

Francois played in 25 games at quarterback for the Seminoles, throwing for 6,291 yards, 36 TDs and 21 INTs.

2) Vegas Dave, the huckster/tipster featured on Showtime?s Action series last month, had been indicted in January by the Federal Government on 19 felony counts carrying a potential sentence of 40+ years in federal prison, but in the end winds up with no felony convictions.

A judge ordered that he must stay out of Las Vegas sportsbooks for three years; he also gets three years probation, must get gambling treatment and do 150 hours of community service.

1) Am guessing there is no way to know this, but I?d be curious how many fantasy baseball leagues there are in this country. Every time Mike Trout or Bryce Harper hits one out, how many owners are they helping out?

Am also guessing that being an official scorer for major league games has become a much tougher job, with people having money on the line, as far as what is a hit and what isn?t.

 

[Cnotes53]

Leonard, Raptors hope to shake off fatigue for Game 4
May 20, 2019
By The Associated Press

TORONTO (AP) For Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors, Monday was all about rest and recovery.

Coming off a season in which he sat out 22 regular-season games and never played on back-to-back nights as part of a plan to manage his workload, Leonard played a playoff career-high 52 minutes in Toronto's double-overtime victory over the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday.

The Raptors cut their deficit to 2-1 in the Eastern Conference finals, but it may have come at a cost. Leonard battled through both extra sessions while dealing with soreness in his leg. Pascal Siakam also had a long night, playing 51 minutes for Toronto, which will try to even the series in Tuesday's Game 4.

Leonard didn't speak to reporters Monday, but Raptors coach Nick Nurse said the star player isn't injured, just fatigued.

''The consensus today is he's tired, and he's got two days and will be ready to go,'' Nurse said. ''Those are kind of the words coming out of his mouth: little tired, but he'll get his rest, got two days, and he'll be ready.''

Leonard played only nine games in 2017-18 because of a quadriceps injury. He was traded from San Antonio to Toronto after that season, and the Raptors made keeping him fresh a priority.

He acknowledged feeling sore after scoring 36 points in Game 3, including eight in the second overtime, but insisted he'd be ready to go on Tuesday.

The Bucks are still expecting Leonard to be at his best.

''He's going to shoot with one, two, sometimes even three or four guys on him,'' Milwaukee's Khris Middleton said. ''I keep saying this over and over: He's a great player. You can't stop great players. You can only make it tough on them.''

Leonard isn't just an offensive force. A two-time Defensive Player of the Year, he helped limit Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo to 12 points on 5-for-16 shooting in Game 3.

Raptors guard Kyle Lowry called Leonard ''probably the best two-way basketball player in the NBA.''

Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer was asked Monday whether his team might fare better in Game 4 with Leonard battling fatigue.

''I don't know that we can go any harder at Kawhi than we are,'' Budenholzer said. ''We've been throwing a lot at Kawhi, and we'll continue to do that.''

Here are some other things to know before Game 4:

CHART TOPPER

Sunday marked the sixth time in 15 playoff games with Toronto that Leonard has scored 35 or more. That gives Leonard as many 35-point games in the playoffs as former Raptors stars Vince Carter and DeMar DeRozan combined. Carter (15 career playoff games with the Raptors) and DeRozan (51) each had three such games.

UNDER MY THUMB

Lowry is still wearing a compression glove on his left hand, trying to manage the thumb injury he sustained in Game 7 against Philadelphia in the previous round. Lowry said the thumb bothers him when he tries to make steals.

''It's going to hurt, it's going to be sore, but you've got to push through,'' Lowry said.

BENCH PRODUCTION

Budenholzer said he doesn't plan on moving either Malcolm Brogdon or George Hill into the starting lineup. Hill led the Bucks with 24 points in Game 3, while Brogdon - a starter in the regular season before he was sidelined by a foot injury - had 20.

''We'll continue to think about it and wrestle with everything but, generally speaking, I think that seems like it's in a good place,'' he said.

ONE IN THE CHAMBER

Danny Green was surprised when Nurse ran a play for him in the first overtime, even though Green had missed all eight attempts so far.

''We put him back in and I said to him, `You've gotta hit one here for us, man,''' Nurse said.

Green made a 3, his only successful field goal of the game.

''A lot of coaches did a great job of letting me mature as an adult and professional shooter to not let those other shots be in my mind,'' Green said. ''When I came around the screen, I didn't think twice. I just thought the next one was going in.''

ON THE SHELF

Toronto F OG Anunoby (appendectomy) and G Patrick McCaw (personal) are out for Game 4.

 

[Cnotes53]

 

[Cnotes53]

503Milwaukee -504 Toronto
MILWAUKEE is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games after a loss in the current season.



NBA (PROFESSIONAL)

DUNKEL'S HIGHLIGHTED GAME

Milwaukee at Toronto - Tuesday May 21, 2019
The Milwaukee Bucks enter today?s contests with the highest Dunkel road power rating on the board at 131.388. Milwaukee is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 games following a SU loss. The Toronto Raptors come in with a home power rating of 126.466. Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. The Milwaukee Bucks have the highest Dunkel O/U rating on the board at 222.163. The Bucks have gone over in seven of their last eight road games. Dunkel?s Pick: Milwaukee (-2; Over).


TUESDAY MAY 21, 2019

Milwaukee
@
Toronto
Game 503-504
May 21, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating: Milwaukee
131.388
Toronto
126.466
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Milwaukee
by 5
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Milwaukee
by 2
216
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee
(-2); Over


NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, May 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (70 - 24) at TORONTO (67 - 30) - 5/21/2019, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) on Tuesday nights this season.
MILWAUKEE is 144-105 ATS (+28.5 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
MILWAUKEE is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 43-56 ATS (-18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 24-36 ATS (-15.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 11-9 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 11-9 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
10 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, May 21

Leonard scored 36 in Game 3 OT win; other Toronto starters shot 43.2% from floor, big upgrade from previous games, though their subs were only 10-33. Antetokounmpo fouled out in OT in Game 3; Bucks were +3 when he was on court, -9 when he was off floor. Bucks won six of last eight games with Toronto; they won/covered three of last four visits to Canada. Seven of last ten series games went over. Milwaukee won six of its last seven games overall, scoring 116.8 ppg; over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Underdogs covered seven of last ten series games.


NBA

Tuesday, May 21

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Milwaukee's last 19 games
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games on the road
Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Milwaukee is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto

Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Toronto's last 16 games
Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Toronto is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Toronto is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

 

[Cnotes53]

G4 - Bucks at Raptors
Chris David

Eastern Conference Finals ? Game 4 (Bucks lead 2-1)

Milwaukee at Toronto (TNT, 8:35 p.m. ET)

The Raptors needed 58 minutes and a huge night from Kawhi Leonard to capture a 118-112 double-overtime victory over the Bucks in Game 3 on Sunday. With the win, Toronto cut Milwaukee?s lead in the Eastern Conference Finals to 2-1.

Leonard played a game-high 52 minutes and finished with 36 points, nine rebounds and five assists while shooting 11-of-25 from the field. Also logging 50-plus minutes for Toronto was Pascal Siakam, who had the opportunity to end the game in regulation but he missed two free throws and Milwaukee forced the extra session with a game-tying shot.

Toronto covered Game 3 as a 2 ?-point favorite and it?s fair to say that the right team won. The Bucks couldn?t buy a shot from the field (37.3%) and they also struggled from the free throw line (66.7%). Milwaukee did have the chance to steal the win in overtime but the shots continued to miss and the club didn?t receive a great offense effort from its best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo. This year?s likely league MVP finished with 12 points on 5-of-16 shooting and he fouled out in the second overtime.

NBA expert Tony Mejia analyzed the performance of the Bucks All-Star in Game 3 and others on both squads.

He said, ?Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 23 rebounds but missed 11 of his 16 shots and has to get used to playing decoy the rest of the way if Kawhi Leonard will continue to serve as the primary defender against him. Toronto?s defensive game plan has centered on making sure Antentokounmpo sees multiple bodies whenever he faces up to drive towards the rim and has really cut off his opportunities in transition, so others have to emerge. It says a lot about how difficult it is to stop the Bucks that Game 3 went to double-overtime despite the starting backcourt of Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton combining to finish 6-for-32 by each missing 13 of their 16 shots, shooting just 2-for-12 from beyond the arc.?

While the starting backcourt of the Bucks struggled for 20 total points, head coach Mike Budenholzer got a huge lift from their backups. George Hill (24) and Malcolm Brogdon (20) combined for 44 points off the bench and will likely see more minutes if the starters can?t connect again.

The shooting woes were contagious at the Scotiabank Arena for both teams as Toronto has more misses than makes.

Mejia explained, ?Danny Green continues to struggle for Toronto and he missed eight of his nine shots in Game 3, so it?s hard to forecast a second consecutive ?over? in this series considering multiple overtime periods were required to eclipse the posted total on Sunday night and both teams are gaining increased familiarity with one another. Unless word comes down that Toronto head coach Nick Nurse is contemplating a lineup change and set to utilize Norman Powell in the starting five, riding the ?under? seems like the way to go.?

I felt that Nurse and the Raptors needed to muck it up in Game 3 and capture a low-scoring win and they accomplished that objective for the most part. Unfortunately for Toronto, the oddsmakers don?t believe the club can produce that effort again on Tuesday.

Milwaukee opened as a one-point road favorite and the number has risen to -2 ? as of Tuesday morning. NBA handicapper Kevin Rogers talks about the rarity of this number.

He said, ?The Raptors are listed as home underdogs for the first time this season and they haven?t received points at Scotiabank Arena since a 108-105 win against Houston on March 9, 2018 as three-point ?dogs. Toronto was last a playoff home ?dog in Game 4 of the 2017 Eastern Conference Finals against Cleveland and it lost 109-102 when receiving seven points.?

Rogers also noted how the point-spread hasn?t mattered for Milwaukee. ?The Bucks failed to cover in these playoffs for only the second time in 12 games even though they stretched the Raptors to double-overtime in Game 3. Milwaukee has covered in all 10 playoff wins, including a 2-0 ATS mark as a road favorite in the opening round against Detroit.?

Overall, the Bucks are 4-1 both SU and ATS on the road in this year?s playoffs and the ?over? has gone 4-1 in those games. Including Sunday?s win, Toronto has gone 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS at home in this year?s playoffs.

It certainly wouldn?t be surprising to see Toronto even up the series but Milwaukee has shown incredible bounce-back numbers and you can see why it?s a serious threat to win this year?s NBA Finals.

During the regular season, the Bucks posted the best overall record and they accomplished that feat by staying away from losing skids. They only dropped back-to-back games once this season and they?re a league-best 21-1 (95%) after a loss. What?s more impressive is they went 18-4 (81%) against the spread in those games. After losing Game 1 of the second round to the Celtics by 22 points (112-90), Milwaukee rebounded for a 123-102 win and cover in Game 2.

As Mejia mentioned above, bettors on the ?under? were squeezed on Sunday as the game went to double-overtime and that was the first time that the ?over? cashed in this series.

The Game 4 total opened as high as 220 and most books are now holding 216 and I agree with the move down.

Milwaukee?s offense, which hasn?t been clicking lately, always has the ability to help you cash ?over? tickets but Toronto?s attack makes you pump the brakes. The Raptors have scored over 100 points in all three games of this series but it?s been a major struggle to get there. The club is shooting 39 percent from the field and the lack of scoring depth outside of Leonard has been noticeable since the second round versus Philadelphia. Barring another marathon, Toronto?s Team Total Under (106 ?) seems more than doable.

Despite cutting into the series deficit, the Raptors are still 9/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $450) on the series while the Bucks are healthy 1/6 favorites (Bet $100 to win $16).

Make a note that Golden State clinched a spot in the NBA Finals again it?s listed as a 1/2 favorite (Bet $100 to win $50) to pull off the 3-peat. Milwaukee is +170 while Toronto is a 20/1 choice and bettors should be aware that the two clubs in the Eastern Conference will have homecourt advantage in the upcoming series.

Game 5 of this best-of-seven matchup will take place on Thursday from the Fiserv Forum.

 

[Cnotes53]

TUESDAY, MAY 21
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIL at TOR 08:30 PM

TOR +3.0

O 217.5

 

[Udog]

Bucks vs Raptors NBA betting picks and predictions: Bucks rolling on the road
Monique V?g

Milwaukee Bucks guard Eric Bledsoe has struggled to score against the Toronto Raptors during the NBA Eastern Conference Finals, but is due for a big offensive game.

The Toronto Raptors won Game 3 of their playoff series against the Milwaukee Bucks in a double-overtime thriller on Sunday night. Toronto hopes to even up the series at 2-2 with a win today as 3-point underdogs at home.

We break down the odds and give our predictions and best bets for this pivotal Game 4 in the NBA Eastern Conference Finals.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS AT TORONTO RAPTORS (Milwaukee -3, 217.5)

QUICK HITTER

Toronto got out to a quick start at home last game scoring 30 first quarter points, while holding the Bucks to only 21. All season long, these have been two of the better teams defensively in the first quarter with Toronto holding opponents to only 25.6 points at home, and Milwaukee limiting foes to 26.6 ppg on the road. Look for an emphasis on defense early.

PREDICTION: First quarter total - Under 53.5

FIRST HALF BET

In the most recent three games in the head-to-head the average score at halftime has been very low, 55-52 in favor of the Bucks. The Raptors surrender the sixth-fewest first half points per game at 52.7 at home, and Milwaukee ranks third away from home at 53.3.

PREDICTION: First half game total - Under 106.5

TEAM/PLAYER PROP

Milwaukee?s Eric Bledsoe has struggled throughout this series, being held to three made field goals in each game. His shooting has been very poor compared to the 48.4 field goal percentage he put up in the regular season. He has still been active on both sides of the floor averaging 4.5 rebounds throughout the most recent three games and logging two games with five or more assists. Look for him to finally record another game with double digit scoring.

PREDICTION: Eric Bledsoe Over 20.5 points, rebounds, assists

FULL GAME TOTAL

The Raptors have been held to 37, 42, and 39 percent shooting from the floor in each game versus Milwaukee in the postseason and have really struggled putting up points. The Bucks have also seen their scoring decline this series as they average 117.9 points per game, but have only eclipsed that number once, in the second game. Look for defense to be a focal point for both sides, as the Bucks continue their defensive dominance by forcing the Raptors into tough shots.

PREDICTION: Under 217.5

FULL GAME SIDE

The Raptors have played their best at home winning 38 of 49 games at Scotiabank Arena. They've gone 6-1 in their most recent seven games in Toronto. However, Milwaukee has been the best team in the NBA away from home with a 31-15 record and have won six of the most recent eight versus the Raptors. Look for Milwaukee to be too much to handle and take a commanding 3-1 lead before they return home for Game 5.

PREDICTION: Milwaukee Bucks -3

 

[Cnotes53]

Raptors rout Bucks to even East finals
May 21, 2019
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TORONTO (AP) Kyle Lowry scored 25 points, Kawhi Leonard had 19 and the Toronto Raptors beat the Milwaukee Bucks 120-102 on Tuesday night to even the Eastern Conference finals at two games apiece.

Serge Ibaka had 17 points and 13 rebounds for the Raptors, who improved to 7-2 at home this postseason. Reserve Norm Powell scored 18 points, and Marc Gasol had 17 points and a team-high seven assists.

The home team has won all four games in the series so far. Game 5 is Thursday night in Milwaukee.

Giannis Antetokounmpo had 25 points and 10 rebounds for the top-seeded Bucks. Khris Middleton scored 30 points.

Milwaukee lost its second straight following a six-game winning streak. It dropped consecutive games just once during the regular season, at Utah on March 2 and at Phoenix on March 4.

Toronto's Fred VanVleet, who missed 16 of 20 shot attempts through the first three games of the series, went 5 for 6 from the field in Game 4. He made each of his three 3-point tries and finished with 13 points.

Ahead 94-81 to start the fourth, the Raptors extended their lead with a 10-3 spurt, including seven points from VanVleet. Powell's fast-break layup with 8:35 left put Toronto up 104-84.

Antetokounmpo shot 5 for 8 in the opening frame, matching the number of made baskets he had during Milwaukee's double-overtime loss in Game 3. However, the Bucks star went 4 for 9 the rest of the way.

Leonard missed three of his four attempts in the first but Lowry scored 12 points for the Raptors, who rallied from an early seven-point deficit to lead 32-31 after one.

After scoring the final four points of the first quarter, the Raptors widened their lead with a 9-0 run to begin the second. Ibaka's dunk with 9:56 to go gave Toronto a 41-31 lead.

Leonard and Pascal Siakam, who both played more than 50 minutes in Game 3, looked sluggish in the opening half. Leonard missed the only shot he took in the second, while Siakam played fewer than three minutes in the second after picking up his third foul. Siakam had two points at halftime.

Leonard came up limping after dunking against Antetokounmpo early in the third, but remained in the game. Moments later, Siakam completed a three-point play that put Toronto up 73-60 with 8:43 left. Leonard played through leg soreness in Game 3.

Ilyasova missed a 3 with 3:50 remaining in the third that could have cut the deficit to four points. Powell replied with a 3 and, following miss by Malcolm Brogdon, Leonard drained a jumper to push Toronto's lead to 86-74.

TIP-INS

Bucks: Middleton missed his first attempt of the game, and then made the next eight in row. He finished 11 for 15. ... Antetokounmpo air-balled his first free-throw attempt in the first quarter. ... Brogdon shot 0 for 5 in the first half and missed seven straight before connecting late in the third. He finished 2 for 11.

Raptors: Lowry scored 12 of Toronto's first 17 points. He finished 10 for 10 at the line. ... The Raptors are 4-0 on Tuesdays in these playoffs. ... Toronto outscored Milwaukee 28-6 on bench points in the first half. The Raptors finished with a 48-23 advantage in bench scoring.

 

[Cnotes53]

SCHEDULE FOR THURSDAY MAY 23, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:30 PM Toronto Raptors Milwaukee Bucks Fiserv Forum

SCHEDULE FOR SATURDAY MAY 25, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:30 PM Milwaukee Bucks Toronto Raptors Scotiabank Arena

SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY MAY 27, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:30 PM Toronto Raptors Milwaukee Bucks Fiserv Forum


********************************


NBA PLAYOFF RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

05/21/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/20/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
05/19/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
05/18/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
05/17/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
05/16/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
05/15/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/14/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
05/12/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/10/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
05/09/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
05/08/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/07/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
05/06/2019 1-2-1 33.33% -6.00
05/05/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
05/04/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/03/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.00
05/02/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/01/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals..............22-29-1 43.13% -50.00


******************************


BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS

05/21/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00............+10.00
05/20/2019.............0 - 1....................-5.50.....................0 - 1.................-5.50..............-11.00
05/19/2019.............0 - 1....................-5.50.....................0 - 1.................-5.50..............-11.00
05/18/2019.............0 - 1....................-5.50.....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............-0.50
05/17/2019............,0 - 1....................-5.50.....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............-0.50
05/16/2019.............0 - 1....................-5.50.....................0 - 1..................-5.50.............-11.00
05/15/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/14/2019.............1 - 0...................+5.00....................0 - 1..................-5.50..............-0.50
05/12/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1..................-0.50.............-1.00
05/10/2019.............0 - 1....................-5.50....................0 - 1...................-5.50.............-11.00
05/09/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1...................-0.50............-11.50
05/08/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1...................-0.50.............-1.00
05/07/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1...................-0.50.............-11.50
05/06/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 0..................+5.00.............-6.00
05/05/2019.............1 - 1....................-0.50.....................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-1.00
05/04/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/03/2019.............0 - 2....................-11.00...................1 - 1..................-0.50..............-11.50
05/02/2019.............1 - 0....................+5.00....................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
05/01/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................1 - 0.................+5.00..............-0.50


Totals...................8 - 18.....................-59.00..................14 - 11.................+9.50...........-49.50


**************************

APRILS NBA BEST BETS


Totals....................23 - 21..................-0.50.................25 - 27................-19.50..............-20.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

? It snowed in Denver Tuesday. On May 21st. Good grief.

? DT Ndamukong Suh signed a 1-year deal with the Buccaneers.

? Giants 4, Braves 3? SF scored 3 in 9th; Panik had walk-off single.

? Baseball injuries: Angels put SS Andrelton Simmons (ankle) on IL

? Mariners put 2B Dee Gordon, 3B Ryan Healy on IL.

? Before Tuesday, Washington?s bullpen had 6.46 ERA; next-worst in MLB is Miami?s (5.35)


**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings??.

13) Mets have a problem with Robinson Cano, who twice didn?t run out balls last weekend, both of which resulted in double plays. Cano is making $24M a year from now thru 2023; is it too much to ask him to at least pretend that he cares?

I don?t need him sprinting to first on a ball where he has no chance to be safe; Aledmys Diaz of the Astros got hurt doing that Friday. Tampa Bay lost Evan Longoria for 87 games once when he pulled a hamstring sprinting on a ball he had no chance to beat out.

But Cano has to at least go 60-75% to first base; he is an elder statesman of the game, the team is struggling badly, the manager?s job is hanging in the balance. It isn?t a lot to ask.

12) Mets were shut out both Saturday and Sunday in Miami, the first time since 1967 that the Mets had two or fewer hits in consecutive games.

11) According to guys on ESPN.com, a 6-foot-11 Croatian forward named Luka Sumanic made the biggest impression at the NBA Combine this weekend.

10) According to observers, LSU PG Tremont Waters outplayed fellow point guards, Tennessee?s Jordan Bone and St John?s Shamorie Ponds

9) Sunday, the A?s scored two runs in top of the 7th inning to take a 5-3 lead in Detroit, but rain stopped the game and it never resumed. The game will resume September 6, when hopefully it will matter if Oakland can get the last nine outs of the game.

A?s lost the last six Sundays; at least they didn?t lose this game, and it?ll be resumed on a Friday, so that helps.

8) Tampa Bay Rays have two catchers active; Travis d?Arnaud ad Erik Kratz; neither guy was in the Tampa Bay organization two weeks ago.

7) Jerry Glanville is going to the defensive coordinator of the XFL team in Tampa; he was in the CFL working under June Jones LY, but didn?t go to Houston?s XFL team with Jones.

6) Brooks Koepka?s +4 Sunday was the highest final round score by a major champion since Vijay Singh at the 2004 PGA. Thats when it is good to have a 7-stroke lead.

5) Eight golfers have finished 2nd in all four majors: Mickelson, Nicklaus, Norman, Oosthuizen, Palmer, Tom Watson, Craig Wood and now, Dustin Johnson.

You make a boatload of money for finishing 2nd in a major.

4) Training camp in the CFL started last weekend. Football is coming close to being a year-round thing.

3) When Bronx-Red Sox play couple of baseball games in London next month, the games will be played on artificial turf. MLB had use of the stadium for 21 days; they decided there wasn?t enough time to install real grass, so artificial turf it is.

2) Providence basketball coach Ed Cooley turned Michigan down Tuesday, as John Beilein?s old job remains open. Cooley got a contract extension from Providence.

1) No Buffalo Bill has worn #32 since OJ Simpson left the team in 1977, but free agent RB Sinorise Perry was wearing #32 during Buffalo?s OTAs this week.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday?s 6-pack

Odds to win the NASCAR race in Charlotte Sunday night:

3-1? Kyle Busch

9-2? Kevin Harvick

6-1? Martin Truex

7-1? Brad Keselowski

8-1? Joey Logano, Chase Elliott

14-1? Clint Bowyer

Quote of the Day
?I am very excited about the opportunity to lead the University of Michigan?s storied basketball program. I have been very fortunate to be part of a great championship organization in the Miami Heat for the last nine years ? three as a player and six as a coach. It was always going to take something incredibly special to for me to leave Miami; however, I know in my heart this is the right place and the right time.?
Juwan Howard

Thursday?s quiz
Which former NBA star is the head coach/GM of the Las Vegas Aces in the WNBA?

Wednesday?s quiz
OJ Simpson finished his NFL career with the 49ers.

Tuesday?s quiz
The Sun Bowl is played in El Paso every December.

*********************

Thursday?s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud??.

13) Michigan hired Juwan Howard as its new basketball coach; Howard had been as assistant with the Miami Heat and of course is a Michigan alum, playing in the Fab Five era.

12) Giancarlo Stanton looks like an NFL tight end, but good grief, he gets hurt a lot.

First, a biceps strain; rehab from that led to a shoulder issue. Then, in his first rehab game in Florida, he strains a calf muscle trying to avoid a pitch in a Class A game, so now he?s been shut down another 7-10 days. Oy.

Stanton has been on my fantasy team since since he was an 18-year old in the Florida State League, so I?ve been down this road before:
? Missed 39 games in 2012
? Missed 46 games in 2013
? Missed 88 games in 2015
? Missed 43 games in 2016
? Missed 45 games already this season.

Guy gets paid $30M a year; would be nice if he played more.

11) Monday is Stanton Bobblehead Day in the Bronx; that should go over well.

10) Race for the two Wild Cards in the AL:
? Tampa Bay 27-18
? Boston 25-23
? Cleveland 25-23
? Texas 24-23
? Oakland 25-25
? LA Angels 22-26

9) Gleyber Torres has 11 homers this year; nine of them were against Baltimore.

8) Iowa passed a sports betting bill this week; their goal is to begin taking wagers around August 10th.

7) Baseball stuff:
? Cleveland DFA?d OF Carlos Gonzalez.
? Rockies put P Wade Davis (oblique) on IL.
? Angels put C Kevan Smith on 7-day concussion IL.

6) St Louis Blues came into the NHL in the fall of 1967, and made the Stanley Cup finals their first three years in the NHL, going 0-12 in those finals. This will be the first time since then that they?re back in the finals, playing the same Bruins? squad they lost to in 1970.

5) Colonial Country Club is hosting a PGA Tour event this week for the 72nd consecutive year, the second-longest streak behind Augusta National.

4) Vanderbilt hired Faragi Phillips as an assistant basketball coach; he went 105-31 in four years as a head coach at the high school level in Memphis, winning two state titles. Memphis is a very fertile recruiting ground in basketball.

3) Future NFL Draft sites: 2021: Cleveland, 2023: Kansas City. No word on 2022.

NFL Combine is staying in Indianapolis for at least the next couple years.

2) A?s 7, Indians 2? Oakland won its last six games, is back at .500 (25-25).

1) Robinson Cano actually ran out a ground ball last night, so of course he leaves the game right after with a strained quad muscle.

 

[Cnotes53]

Bucks need better bench play in Game 5
May 22, 2019
By The Associated Press

MILWAUKEE (AP) The Bucks are back in Milwaukee looking to regain momentum in the Eastern Conference finals.

Coach Mike Budenholzer believes the play of his bench will be a major factor in what happens in Game 5 on Thursday.

The Bucks reserves played so well in the first two games of the series that the teams' apparel shop unveiled a ''Bench Mob'' T-shirt, celebrating the efforts of Malcolm Brogdon, Ersan Ilyasova, George Hill and others. Milwaukee's bench outscored Toronto's reserves 130-78 through the first three games of the series.

But it was the Raptors' bench, led by forward Norman Powell's 18 points, that decided Game 4 - scoring 48 points Tuesday as Toronto evened the series at 2-2.

''They need to play well,'' Budenholzer said Wednesday of his reserves. ''I think our whole team, whether it be the bench or the starters, needs to be better defensively. I think there's things offensively where the bench can, you know, just like the rest of us, we have to execute a little bit better. ... this series, the benches have been critical and very influential and credit to Toronto's bench, particularly. They really stepped up and had a huge game, and we need that from our group.''

Serge Ibaka gave the Raptors a lift off the bench Tuesday with 17 points and 13 rebounds. Fellow Toronto reserve Fred VanVleet added 13 points and six assists. Their efforts came as the Raptors got only 19 points from a hobbled Kawhi Leonard.

Raptors coach Nick Nurse is confident his bench will continue to play well in Milwaukee because of Toronto's style of play.

''That's really kind of our system, would be that we create opportunities and everyone's involved and everybody's touching the ball,'' he said. ''Everybody's moving and cutting. It's kind of a free-flowing, open system.

''If we play with the effort we've put in the last two games, actually three of the four games in the series, we are going to have a really good chance to win,'' Nurse said. ''We are going to put ourselves in position to win, and I don't think it's any tricky schemes or fabulous game plans. I think it's our players playing their butts off, really.''

Brogdon, who returned from a foot injury in the Eastern Conference semifinals, missed his first seven shots Tuesday night and finished with just four points. None of the Milwaukee reserves scored in double digits.

''It was disappointing, but I mean, the series is 2-2,'' said Bucks forward Kris Middleton, who finished with a game-high 30 points. ''It's not the end of the world. They protect their home court just like we did, and I know the fight is going to be a dogfight. First team to two wins. Can't feel sorry for ourselves that we lost two in a row here. We have to go protect home court and go from there.''

Here are some other things to know going into Thursday's Game 5:

DEFENSIVE STANDOUTS

Some of the league's best defensive players are in the Eastern Conference finals.

Bucks MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee guard Eric Bledsoe Wednesday were named NBA first-team all-defensive performers.

Toronto forward Kawhi Leonard was named second team.

NO TIMETABLE FOR ANUNOBY

Raptors coach Nick Nurse said OG Anunoby does not have a timetable for returning from an emergency appendectomy that has sidelined the 21-year-old forward for the entire postseason.

''He is being more active every day,'' Nurse said. ''I think we are getting closer to a point where we're - you know, unpack is the next step for him. He's moving pretty good, he's shooting, etc., but still a ways away from being able to take hits and contact in the areas that he needs to test out.''

TWICE IS ENOUGH

Milwaukee isn't accustomed to losing back-to-back games in 2019 - in fact, it's happened only twice.

Before the two losses to Toronto in the Eastern Conference finals, the only other time Milwaukee dropped back-to-back games was in March, losing at Utah on March 2 and at Phoenix on March 4.

THE DRAKE FACTOR

Drake's impromptu massage of Nurse's shoulders is getting a lot of attention, though the Raptors' coach said he didn't even realize it had happened.

''I didn't even know I got the shoulder rub last night until somebody showed me a picture today,'' Nurse said. ''I didn't even feel it. I was so locked into the game. Didn't distract me at all.''

Drake has been very animated at courtside, and Budenholzer said if the rapper steps onto the court, it crosses the line.

''I don't know how much he's on the court. It sounds like you guys are saying it's more than I realize,'' Budenholzer said. ''There's certainly no place for fans and, you know, whatever it is exactly that Drake is for the Toronto Raptors. You know, to be on the court, there's boundaries and lines for a reason, and like I said, the league is usually pretty good at being on top of stuff like that.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Gobert headlines NBA All-Defensive teams
May 22, 2019
By The Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and MVP finalists Giannis Antetokounmpo and Paul George were the leading vote-getters for the All-Defensive first team.

Boston's Marcus Smart and Milwaukee's Eric Bledsoe rounded out the first team that was announced Wednesday.

Gobert finished with 97 first-team points and 196 points, giving the Utah center his third straight first-team selection. George had 96 first-team votes and 195 points, followed by Antetokounmpo (94, 193).

Smart and Bledsoe both earned their first All-Defensive team selections.

The second team included Golden State's Draymond Green and Klay Thompson, who earned his first selection. They were joined by Toronto's Kawhi Leonard, Philadelphia's Joel Embiid and New Orleans guard Jrue Holiday.

The teams were selected by a panel of 100 writers and broadcasters.

 

[Cnotes53]

 

[Cnotes53]

507Toronto -508 Milwaukee
MILWAUKEE is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) off an upset loss as a road favorite in the current season.


NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, May 23

Toronto @ Milwaukee

Game 507-508
May 23, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
130.156
Milwaukee
127.699
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2 1/2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 7
217
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+7); Under


NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, May 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (68 - 30) at MILWAUKEE (70 - 25) - 5/23/2019, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 213-269 ATS (-82.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 48-31 ATS (+13.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 29-19 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 11-10 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 12-9 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
11 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, May 23

Home side won all four series games; Raptors are 2-3 in last five visits to Milwaukee- over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Toronto?s bench outscored the Bucks? subs 48-23 in Game 4, allowing Leonard to do less, which is good. Powell/VanVleet/Ibaka were combined +78 in 81:37. Now the question is, can Raptors do it on road? Toronto lost four of last five road games (under 3-2). Milwaukee won/covered its last four home games, winning by average of 19 points. Underdogs covered eight of last 11 series games.


NBA

Thursday, May 23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games on the road
Toronto is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee

Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
Milwaukee is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Milwaukee's last 20 games
Milwaukee is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 11 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

 

[Cnotes53]

G5 - Raptors at Bucks
Tony Mejia

Eastern Conference Finals ? Game 5 -- Series tied 2-2

No. 2 Toronto at No. 1 Milwaukee (-7/216.5), TNT, 8:30 p.m. ET

May 21 ? Raptors (+3, +135) 120 vs. Bucks 102 (Over 217.5)
May 19 ? Raptors (-2) 118 vs. Bucks 112, 2OT (Over 221.5)
May 17 ? Bucks (-6.5) 125 vs. Raptors 103 (Over 219)
May 15 ? Bucks (-6.5) 108 vs. Raptors 100 (Under 218)

Jan. 31 ? Bucks (+2.5) 105 at Raptors 92 (Under 232)
Jan. 5 ? Raptors (+5.5) 123 at Bucks 116 (Over 227)
Dec. 9 ? Bucks (+5) 104 at Raptors 99 (Under 229.5)
Oct. 29 ? Bucks (+2) 124 vs. Raptors 109 (Over 222.5)

It wasn?t all that stunning that the Raptors got even at home against the Bucks on Tuesday night.

Toronto was one of the NBA?s top home teams, finishing in a tie for third with its 32-9 mark in its gym. Although both the Magic and 76ers got a game up at ScotiaBank Arena, each team saw their season end there. Game 3 saw the Bucks fight gamely, but ultimately fall short in double-overtime as their inconsistent shooting finally proved too much to overcome.

The surprising part about the Eastern Conference finals entering a Game 5 at 2-2 revolves around how Toronto managed to notch things up, putting together its most complete effort of these playoffs in securing a 120-102 result on a night where star forward Kawhi Leonard was off his game, visibly hampered by a nagging quad injury.

Everyone from the assistant trainer to the PA announcer to super fan Drake stepped up.

Kyle Lowry finished with a team-high 25 points, his second-largest output of this postseason, setting the tone early by attacking. Marc Gasol had a team-high seven assists, finishing with 17 points and knocking down three 3-pointers. Serge Ibaka relieved him and delivered 17 points and 13 rebounds in 24 minutes, while Norman Powell came in and ultimately fired up 13 shots from beyond the arc, knocking down four and often finding himself on the business end of a wide-open look as the Raptors manipulated Milwaukee?s defense with their ball movement.

Backup point guard Fred VanVleet hit five of six shots after entering Tuesday?s game 4-for-20 in the series, which was an improvement on shooting 12.9 percent in the 76ers series.

Toronto looked capable of winning a championship in Game 4, showing off its skill, length and depth.

Whether it can sustain that excellence remains to be seen, especially since the Eastern Conference finals shift back to Milwaukee, where the Bucks have only lost once in these playoffs and posted the top home record (33-8) in the East, finishing only behind Denver (34-7) in the entire NBA.

Depth was expected to be a major asset for the Raptors, but then the playoffs arrive and VanVleet and Ibaka went into a shell. Powell has been hit-or-miss and Nick Nurse has committed to solely using an eight-man rotation, so that perceived edge went out the window. No one who watched Toronto overcome Philadelphia?s talent would doubt the Magic of Leonard, but he?s clearly not 100 percent after aggravating a leg injury in the first half of Game 3. Considering he?s averaging 38.4 minutes per playoff game and has logged the fourth-most miles per game this postseason, per Second Spectrum, it?s unlikely he?ll be even 75 percent again in this series given the venue changes going forward before an Eastern Conference champion is decided.

Despite dominating the Bucks on Tuesday, the line opened with Milwaukee as a 6.5-to-7-point favorite. VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers points out that this critical swing game in a series has historically been a rough one for teams coming out of the visiting locker room, particularly this season.

?Backing the home team in Game 5 of the playoffs with the series tied at 2-2 has been money in the bank in 2019. Home squads in this situation are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this postseason,? Rogers said. ?The Warriors failing to cash as six-point favorites in a five-point win over the Rockets in the second round is the lone non-cover. Dating back to the start of the 2018 playoffs, home teams have won 10 straight Game 5?s with a series tied at 2-2, including five victories by 10 points or more.?

Milwaukee led the league in point differential this season and have managed to cover all 10 times it has walked off the floor a winner in these playoffs, but we?re about to find out whether it has the mental fortitude to overcome adversity. If you believe the Bucks have the talent to dethrone the Warriors, you?re going to need to see how they respond to their first losing streak since March 4. This is only the second time they?ve dropped consecutive games this season and they didn?t lose a third in a row, rebounding to blow out the Pacers at home.

After being the lone team to post 60 victories this season and largely coasting through these playoffs prior to Sunday?s loss, the Bucks are going to be confronted with some tough questions about Giannis Antetokounmpo?s ability to lead a team and adjust to being the focal point of an opposing defense that has been designed to take the ball out of his hands and keep him from getting comfortable. Milwaukee led the NBA in offensive and defensive efficiency this season. In the playoffs, their offensive efficiency prior to going to Toronto was at 113.5, while their defensive efficiency was 98.4 for a league-best differential of +15.1.

In their losses to the Raptors, their offensive efficiency registered at 99.1, while their defensive number came in at 110.2. The Bucks looked like a shell of themselves. Will getting back home change matters the way it did for Toronto? Will we continue to see the Raps figure things out on the offensive end after their second and third-largest scoring output of the postseason?

The ?over? is on a 3-1 run in this series and Thursday?s total opened as high as 219 but is now sitting at 216.5 as of Thursday morning. VegasInsider.com totals expert Chris David offered up his thoughts on the number for Game 5.

?I was very surprised that Toronto put up 120 points in Game 4 after coming off a double-overtime victory in Game 3. The Raptors have always been a tough out at home and their ability to avoid the fatigue factor in this series against a deeper team was very impressive. The question I have now is how much gas does Toronto have left in its tank? The oddsmakers aren?t expecting the offense to travel, listing their Team Total at 105 ? for Game 5 and based on what we?ve seen, you have to agree with them. The Raptors are averaging 100.1 PPG in seven road playoff games this season, and their highest output was 107 in Game 4 at Orlando in the first round,? said David. ?If you?re handicapping is going to stick with the home-away tendencies, then I would put more trust in the Bucks offense.

?Milwaukee has averaged 114.7 PPG at the Fiserv Forum in seven games and despite that production, the ?under? has gone 4-3 but that?s because the Bucks defense (99 PPG) has been great in those games. Their Team Total is 112 ? for Game 5 and a close game could certainly keep that number in check. However, this club hasn?t dropped three consecutive losses all season and the one time they did lose two in a row, they rebounded with a clinical 117-98 win at home. I believe Thursday?s outcome will be in the same neighborhood.? If you?re interested on getting in on an exact series price:

7 Games Bucks Win +135
6 Games Bucks Win +175
6 Games Raptors Win +450
7 Games Raptors Win +500

If you?re looking for an x-factor, Bucks point guard Eric Bledsoe may be worth targeting in props since the bar is so low due to his brutal play thus far. The length of Pascal Siakam, who is playing off him and conceding the 3-pointer, has played a major role in keeping him from even getting started. Bledsoe, a borderline All-Star this season, has been terrible in the series, shooting 24 percent from the field and averaging 8.3 points after scoring 16 per game over the first two rounds. He shot 12-for-43 from beyond the arc against the Pistons and Celtics but is just 2-for-19 against the Raptors.

Malcolm Brogdon?s return gave Mike Budenholzer another option alongside George Hill, who has been surprisingly steady in these playoffs, but he shot just 2-for-11 in Game 4. Perhaps getting back home to Fiserv Forum will be the remedy for him as well. Shooters Khris Middleton, Nikola Mirotic, Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova are all capable of making Toronto pay for the extra attention they?re paying to Antetokounmpo, but most of them struggled in Toronto and must rediscover their stroke before they?re put in the first must-win situation of this postseason.

From that standpoint, the Raptors have the edge in experience, having already survived an elimination game against the 76ers, who they also won Game 5 against when that series was tied 2-2. Although Toronto has famously never reached an NBA Finals in franchise history, its leader is a champion.

How effective will Leonard be after another flight and another stretch of steady treatment? Can he continue to make big shots and be a steady force for the Raps? halfcourt offense? Will he still be able to physically hang with the ?Greek Freak,? making him work for everything?

The books are making it awfully easy to back Toronto if you believe Leonard can hold up physically, yet two-thirds of the early public money has come in on the favored Bucks.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday's Top Wager
May 23, 2019
By Bookmaker
by Kyle Markus

NBA Game 5 Preview - Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks

The Toronto Raptors were left for dead by a portion of NBA analysts after their two early losses in the Eastern Conference Finals, but this team is clearly not going down without a fight. Toronto rallied back with a pair of home wins to even their series at 2 against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Next up is a critical Game 5, and if Toronto can sneak out with the win, suddenly it will be in the catbird seat in the race to the NBA Finals. It certainly won?t be easy, as the Bucks are the superior team and get this game at home.

Most people are hoping for a Bucks-Warriors matchup in the NBA Finals and Milwaukee needs to take care of business in this one to pull to within one game of that reality in NBA gambling.

This NBA basketball game between the Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks will be held at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin at 8:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 23rd, 2019. The game will be nationally televised on TNT.

We'll have NBA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2019 NBA season.

Odds Analysis

The Bucks come in as the seven-point favorites in Game 5. They are the -290 favorites on the moneyline while the Raptors are the +237 underdogs to pull the upset. The scoring total is listed at 218 points. There has not been any movement since these lines were originally set so it seems like they are pretty well-marked.

The Raptors were slight underdogs in Game 4 despite being at home and cruised to the win to easily cover the spread and pay off nicely on the moneyline. The ?over? hit on the total in NBA odds.

Last Time Out

The Raptors took control in the second quarter to head into halftime with a double-digit lead and never let up in the 120-102 Game 4 victory. Kyle Lowry was impressive, finishing with 25 points, six rebounds and five assists. Everyone knows Kawhi Leonard is the team?s star, but this series could come down to the supporting cast. If Lowry can score like that consistently the rest of the way, Toronto will have a great shot at pulling the upset.

Leonard finished with 19 points, seven rebounds and four steals. Khris Middleton had 30 points, seven assists and six rebounds to lead Milwaukee and shot a super efficient 11-of-15 from the floor. Giannis Antetokounmpo bounced back from a poor Game 3 with 25 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks, but they were the only two Milwaukee players who made a significant difference. They will need more help in Game 5.

Player To Watch

Serge Ibaka -- The Raptors have made some adjustments as this series has moved along, one of which has been a bigger role for the athletic big man. Ibaka was great in Game 4, finishing with 17 points and 13 rebounds in 24 minutes off the bench. He shot 7-of-12 from the field and Toronto outscored Milwaukee by 24 points when he was on the court.

Ibaka figures to play a prominent role once again in Game 5, and if he can significantly affect the game again, Toronto should be able to at least cover and possibly pull the upset.

Free NBA ATS Picks

There are plenty of reasons why the Raptors should be feeling good right now, but the Bucks are going back home and it seems like they are too good to play poorly again. Milwaukee is a solid favorite, but even so, this line is too low.

Toronto generally goes as its supporting cast goes, and in this one Leonard is not going to get enough help. The Bucks are the pick to cover, with the ?under? the choice as the Raptors are not going to score efficiently in NBA odds.

NBA ATS Pick: Milwaukee Bucks 113, Toronto Raptors 104

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, MAY 23
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOR at MIL 08:30 PM

TOR +7.0

U 215.5