CNOTES 2022-2023 NBA TRENDS, NEWS, BEST BETS AND OPINIONS THRU THE PLAYOFFS !

Cnotes53

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NBA OCTOBER'S OPINION'S AND BEST BETS !

10/24/22................8-8-0....................50.00%..................-4.00
10/23/22................7-7-0....................50.00%..................-3.50
10/22/22................8-8-0....................50.00%..................-4.00
10/21/22..............10-10-0..................50.00%..................-5.00
10/20/22.................3-1-0...................75.00%..................+9.50
10/19/22...............11-11-0..................50.00%..................-5.50
10/18/22..................2-2-0..................50.00%..................- 1.00

TOTALS..............49-47-0...................51.04%................-13.00


BEST BETS

10/24/22..................4-3-0...................57.14%................+3.50
10/23/22..................4-4-0...................50.00%.................-2.00
10/22/22..................6-6-1...................50.00%.................-3.00
10/21/22..................6-4-2...................60.00%.................+8.00
10/20/22..................3-1-0...................75.00%.................+9.50
10/19/22..................3-6-0..................33.33%.................-18.00
10/18/22..................2-2-0..................50.00%..................- 1.00

TOTALS..............28-26-2...................51.85%.................- 3.00
 

Udog

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Armadillo Sports

Tuesday’s 6-pack
NFL leaders in receiving yardage:
701— Tyreek Hill, Miami
656— Stefan Diggs, Buff
654— Justin Jefferson, Minn
607— Cooper Kupp, Rams
533— Jaylen Waddle, Miami
503— AJ Brown, Phil

Quote of the Day
“Right now the move is for Sam (Ehlinger) to be the starter for the rest of the season.”
Colts coach Frank Reich

Tuesday’s quiz
Last time the Chicago Bears played in a Super Bowl, who was their QB?

Monday’s quiz
In what state was the Mary Tyler Moore Show set in?

Sunday’s quiz
Aaron Rodgers/Jared Goff both played their college football for the Cal Bears.

****************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

We’ll start today with a story from a long time ago; don’t think I’ve told this one here, if I have, then my bad, but I don’t think I have. Anyway………

Way back in 1986 or so, I was in my mid-20’s, still living at home. That football season, for the first 5-6 weeks that season, my dad’s insurance guy would show up at our house on Monday night with something for my dad to sign. He would stay for the first half of the football game; it just seemed like he liked hanging out and talking ball, so he made excuses to show up, which made sense. My dad was fun to talk to.

Anyway, we’re sitting there one night, and I hardly know this guy, but he says to me, “Are you putting money away for your future? Because if you’re not, then you’re a f—-ing idiot!!!”

My eyes are bugging out of my head; I hardly knew this guy and he is cursing me out in my own house. I mean, what he said was right, but jeez, not great people skills on his part. My dad was sitting there, half-smiling. It was a little weird.

The insurance guy played ball at the Colonie Athletic Club with couple friends of mine, but I was never there— we were pretty much strangers, but I listened to him; entered the Deferred Compensation program where I worked, and started putting money away every payday, so now, 36 or so years later, things are better than they would have been otherwise.

Sadly, a couple years later he passed away after playing either hoops or handball— he was in his early 40’s, I think. But my Deferred Comp letter that comes four times a year came in the mail Monday; whenever it does, it reminds me of that night, and how odd it was.

Sometimes, wisdom comes in unusual forms.

Bears 33, Patriots 14
— Chicago scored on 7 of its 11 drives.
— Bears outgained New England, 390-260.
— Chicago converted 11 of 18 third down plays.
— 2nd-year QB Fields is now 5-12 as an NFL starter; he threw the ball for 179 yards, ran for 82 more.

— Patriots benched QB Jones after three scoreless drives.
— Zappe led TD drives on his first two drives, but after that……
— 5 drives, 24 plays, 78 yards, 3 turnovers.
— Patriots are 20-21 SU since Brady left; 11-9 ATS at home.
— New England gave up 20-37-27-33 points in their losses; 14-0-15 in wins.

— Gambling is difficult; no one saw this result coming.

— Bears have a WR named Equanimeous St Brown; his brother Amon-Ra St Brown plays for Detroit. I’m looking thru the stats and I can’t stop thinking “Who the bleep names their kid Equanimeous?” so I did some research.

In case you were wondering, the word “equanimeous” means having emotional stability and composure, particularly in times of high stress. So now we know that.

— Was interesting to hear that Chicago QB Justin Fields acknowledged that WR Darnell Mooney is a great friend of his; Mooney has been targeted 39 times in seven games; next-highest on the Bears is 20 targets (St Brown). Pretty big difference; if you have a fantasy football team, you want WR’s who are best buddies with the QB.

— World Series odds: Astros -185, Phillies +150

— National League teams won the last three World Series. Astros are in World Series for 4th time in six years, winning in 2017, losing in 2019, 2021.

— April will be the last time Jim Nantz calls a Final Four; he will step away from the college basketball mike after this season, with Ian Eagle taking his place.

— Indianapolis Colts benched QB Matt Ryan for this week’s game with Washington; Sam Ehlinger will make his first NFL start in Ryan’s place.

Since Frank Reich has been the Colts’ coach, these QB’s have started for Indianapolis:
Philip Rivers 11-6
Andrew Luck 11-7
Carson Wentz 9-8
Jacoby Brissett 7-8
Matt Ryan 3-3-1
Brian Hoyer 0-1
Ehlinger will be the Colts’ 7th starting QB the last 4.5 years. Not ideal.

— NFL injuries:
Jets’ RB Breece Hall tore his ACL, is out for the year.
Chargers’ DB JC Jackson (knee) is out for the year.
Chargers’ WR Mike Williams (ankle) is out for several weeks.

— Jets acquired RB James Robinson from Jacksonville, for a 6th-round pick.

— Georgia Bulldogs are favored by 23.5 points over Florida this week, the most points Georgia has ever been favored by in this rivalry- the previous high was in 1971, when the Dawgs were a 21-point favorite over the Gators.

— Robert Griffin III is on ESPN’s Monday night pregame show; he had a very strange playing career. Washington broke the bank by trading draft picks so they could take RGIII with the 2nd pick in the 2012 draft- they went 10-6 in Griffin’s rookie year, made the playoffs, but from that point on, RGIII had a 7-20 record as an NFL starter.

Since then, Washington has only made the playoffs twice; their last playoff win was in 2005.

The NFL Draft is a fascinating study because in a business where each team is worth $3-4B, the draft is very much an inexact science. You trade a bundle of picks to draft a guy, that guy better be good, or there is a price to pay.

Think about it this way; RGIII is 32 years old, and his TV career is well underway. The last two Super Bowl-winning QB’s are 45 and 34 years old.
 

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WASHINGTON is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) on Tuesday nights in the last 3 seasons.

DALLAS are 30-16 Under (12.4 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games in the last 3 seasons.

LA CLIPPERS are 26-11 ATS (13.9 Units) in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 in the last 3 seasons.

PHOENIX is 14-3 Under (10.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 25


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Udog

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NBA

Tuesday, October 25


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Trend Report
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Detroit @ Washington
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games on the road
Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

Dallas @ New Orleans
Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Dallas is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games at home

LA Clippers @ Oklahoma City
LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 5 games
LA Clippers is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Clippers

Golden State @ Phoenix
Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Golden State's last 13 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Phoenix's last 13 games when playing Golden State


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Udog

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Hoop Trends for Tuesday, October 25
Vince Akins

ATS Trend of the Day
Matchup: Detroit Pistons vs. Washington Wizards (NBA League Pass, 7:00 p.m. ET)

The Wizards are 0-10 ATS since November 22 as a favorite of more than four points.


OU Trend of the Day
Matchup: Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns (TNT, 10:00 p.m, ET)

The Warriors are 0-10-1 OU since January 15, 2018 when the total is under 239 and they are coming off a game where both teams scored at least 125 points.


Choice Trend of the Day
Matchup: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (NBA League Pass, 8:00 p.m. ET)

The Thunder are 0-7-1 ATS since February 9 at home as more than a 2 and less than a 13 point dog.
 

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The total has gone OVER in four of Dallas' last six games.
The Mavs are 2-5 SU in their last seven games.
The Mavs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against New Orleans.
The total has gone OVER in seven of New Orleans' last eight games.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Orleans' last 18 games against Dallas.
The total has gone OVER in five of New Orleans' last six home games.
The Mavs are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against New Orleans.
The Mavs are 1-7 SU in their last eight road games.
The Mavs are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against New Orleans.


The Warriors are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games.
The Warriors are 5-1 SU in their last six games.
The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
The total has gone UNDER in six of Phoenix's last eight games.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Phoenix's last 13 games against Golden State.
The Suns are 5-1 SU in their last six home games.
The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Phoenix.
The Warriors are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games against Phoenix.
The Warriors are 3-6 ATS in their last nine road games.
The total has gone UNDER in six of Golden State's last seven road games against Phoenix.
 

Cnotes53

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TUESDAY, OCTOBER 25
DET at WAS07:00 PMDET +6.0
O 220.5
+500 +500
DAL at NO07:30 PMNO +6.0
O 218.5
+500 +500
LAC at OKC08:00 PMOKC +8.5
O 216.0
+500 +500
GS at PHO10:00 PMGS +1.5
O 227.0
+500 +500
 

Cnotes53

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NBA OCTOBER'S OPINION'S AND BEST BETS !

10/25/22................4-4-0....................50.00%..................-2.00
10/24/22................8-8-0....................50.00%..................-4.00
10/23/22................7-7-0....................50.00%..................-3.50
10/22/22................8-8-0....................50.00%..................-4.00
10/21/22..............10-10-0..................50.00%..................-5.00
10/20/22.................3-1-0...................75.00%..................+9.50
10/19/22...............11-11-0..................50.00%..................-5.50
10/18/22..................2-2-0..................50.00%..................- 1.00

TOTALS..............53-51-0...................50.96%................-15.00


BEST BETS

10/25/22..................3-3-0...................50.00%................-1.50
10/24/22..................4-3-0...................57.14%................+3.50
10/23/22..................4-4-0...................50.00%.................-2.00
10/22/22..................6-6-1...................50.00%.................-3.00
10/21/22..................6-4-2...................60.00%.................+8.00
10/20/22..................3-1-0...................75.00%.................+9.50
10/19/22..................3-6-0..................33.33%.................-18.00
10/18/22..................2-2-0..................50.00%..................- 1.00

TOTALS..............31-29-2...................51.66%.................- 4.50
 

Udog

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Wednesday’s 6-pack
NFL leaders in rushing yardage:
740— Nick Chubb, Clev
726— Saquon Barkley, NJG
633— Josh Jacobs, LV
536— Derrick Henry, Tenn
510— Lamar Jackson, Balt
504— Dameon Pierce, Hst

Quote of the Day
“This has been a very tough day for me and, honestly speaking, coach was the most caring person I ever met. He cared so much for his players and honestly speaking it would (be) very difficult for me to put on a jasper’s uniform again if coach ain’t on those sidelines. Love you coach!”
Manhattan basketball player Jose Perez

Wednesday’s quiz
First time the Rams played in a Super Bowl, who was their QB?

Tuesday’s quiz
Last time the Chicago Bears played in a Super Bowl, Rex Grossman was their QB.

Monday’s quiz
Mary Tyler Moore Show was set in the Twin Cities of Minnesota.

******************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

Notes on how NFL divisions are doing against the spread, in non-divisional games:
— NFC East— (14-5) 9-2 ATS at home, 7-3 as underdogs, 7-2 as favorites.
— NFC North— (8-10) 2-5 ATS on road, 4-5 as underdogs, 3-4 as favorites.
— NFC South— (6-12) 3-5 ATS on road, 4-8 as underdogs, 2-4 as favorites.
— NFC West— (9-10) 3-6 ATS as favorites, 6-4 as underdogs, 4-6 at home

— AFC East— (12-8) 0-4 ATS as home dogs, 6-1 as road dog, 7-3 as favorites
— AFC North— (11-9) 5-2 ATS as underdogs, 6-4 on road, 6-7 as favorites
— AFC South— (6-8) 3-5 ATS as road underdogs, 2-3 at home, 1-2 as favorites
— AFC West— (6-10) 1-5 ATS as home favorites, 4-3 as road favorites.

— Scheduling quirk; Indianapolis Colts have already played five of their six division games. There are six teams that have only played one divisional game so far.

— Green Bay is +10.5 at Buffalo this week, just second time in last 11 years they’ve been a double digit underdog. In 2017, Packers (+13) lost 31-28 in Pittsburgh.

— QB Bailey Zappe has had an interesting path to the NFL:
He played three years at I-AA Houston Baptist. The offensive coordinator there got a better job at Western Kentucky— he took Zappe and HBU’s best receiver with him. Zappe threw for 62 TD’s in three years with the Huskies.

At Western Kentucky, Zappe threw for another 62 TD’s, but in one season. New England took him in the 4th round of last spring’s draft.

So far in his rookie season, Zappe has thrown for 596 yards, four TD’s.

— World Series starts Friday night; games are on FOX. Problem is, the FOX station in Albany is having a price war with DirecTV, as in, the station is no longer being shown on DirecTV, which means the World Series won’t be on my TV Friday night, unless these greedy bastards come to an agreement on their dispute.

Oy.

Called both parties to complain; they both blamed the other side. Go figure.

The DirecTV guy did tell me that I can probably watch the ballgame on my phone, so there is that. Can also go out and watch it at a bar that doesn’t have DirecTV.

— Miami Marlins named Cardinals’ bench coach Skip Schumacher as their new manager; he also spent four years coaching in the San Diego Padres’ organization, after playing 11 years in the majors, for three different teams.

— George Clooney/Julia Roberts have now been in six movies together; by way of contrast, Spencer Tracy and Katharine Hepburn were in nine movies together.

— Manhattan Jaspers fired their basketball coach Tuesday, less than two weeks before the season starts. Bad timing.

Manhattan had been picked to finish second in the MAAC in the preseason coaches’ poll; good luck with that, seeing how a lot of Manhattan’s players voiced their displeasure with Steve Masiello getting fired— he had been there for 11 years.

Manhattan made the NCAA’s in 2014 and 2015, but they haven’t had a winning season since; Masiello’s contract was up in April.

Manhattan has 10 seniors, who are not happy; the players could petition the NCAA to be immediately eligible if they transfer, which could create a small tsunami of players going elsewhere. Stay tuned.

— Speaking of the MAAC, the league made a big jump last year, ranked #16 out of 32 college hoop conferences. That is 11 spots higher than the year before, and highest ranking for the league since 2013, when the MAAC was #14 in the country.

— There are 11 Division I college basketball programs in the state of Indiana.

— In the NBA, Portland Trailblazers are 4-0 for the first time since 1999.

— Denver G Ish Smith is playing for his 13th NBA team, which is an NBA record. In his 13 seasons, he’s scored 5,465 points, with 2,800 assists. Interesting career.

— Halloween is coming up next week; few years ago, I spent Halloween weekend at the SouthPoint Casino in Las Vegas, a very good place.

The rodeo was also in Las Vegas; first couple nights I was there, 80% of the people in the casino were wearing cowboy garb— tins of Skoal, the whole deal. I felt like an extra in an old western movie. Bartenders were annoyed; apparently, cowboys aren’t good tippers.

The night after the cowboys went home, they laid out a red carpet at the front door of the casino; asked a security guard what the deal was, it was the Fetish and Fantasy Ball.

Talk about an eye-opening experience; some very interesting costumes. I rode up in the elevator with a couple; the guy was dressed up as a prison guard, his female friend was his prisoner, with a cuffs on and all that, even around her neck. Her costume was cut in strategic places.

Difficult to concentrate on your gambling with costumes like that roaming around the casino all night, but I do highly recommend Halloween in Las Vegas.
 

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CLEVELAND is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

ATLANTA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 points or more in the last 3 seasons.

NEW YORK is 169-124 ATS (32.6 Units) in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games since 1996.

BROOKLYN is 42-22 Under (17.8 Units) after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher since 1996.

Doc Rivers is 120-83 ATS (28.7 Units) in road games vs. division opponents (All games)

SAN ANTONIO is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

CHICAGO is 16-2 ATS (13.8 Units) in home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 15-38 ATS (-26.8 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.

MIAMI is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.

DENVER is 17-42 ATS (-29.2 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 in the last 3 seasons.
 

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NBA

Wednesday, October 26


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Trend Report
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Orlando @ Cleveland
Orlando
Orlando is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 14 games when playing Orlando
Cleveland is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Orlando

Atlanta @ Detroit
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Philadelphia @ Toronto
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Charlotte @ New York
Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Charlotte's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Charlotte's last 17 games when playing on the road against New York
New York
New York is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Brooklyn @ Milwaukee
Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Brooklyn's last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Brooklyn's last 13 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing at home against Brooklyn

Indiana @ Chicago
Indiana
Indiana is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Indiana's last 11 games
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Indiana

San Antonio @ Minnesota
San Antonio
San Antonio is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games
San Antonio is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio

Houston @ Utah
Houston
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games
Utah
Utah is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games at home

LA Lakers @ Denver
LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games on the road
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 10 games

Miami @ Portland
Miami
Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Portland
Miami is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Portland
Portland
Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


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The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
The Nets are 1-6 SU in their last seven games.
The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Milwaukee.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Milwaukee's last 14 games.
The Bucks are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Milwaukee's last 13 games against Brooklyn.
The Bucks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
The Nets are 1-5 SU in their last six games against Milwaukee.
The Nets are 1-4 SU in their last five road games.
The total has gone UNDER in six of Brooklyn's last seven road games against Milwaukee.


The Lakers are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
The Lakers are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games.
The Nuggets are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games.
The total has gone OVER in eight of Denver's last ten games.
The Nuggets are 3-7 SU in their last ten games.
The total has gone OVER in four of Denver's last five games against the Lakers.
The total has gone OVER in four of Denver's last five home games.
The Lakers are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games against Denver.
The Lakers are 1-6 SU in their last seven road games.
The total has gone OVER in six straight matchups between the Lakers and Nuggets in Denver.
 

Cnotes53

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WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 26
ATL at DET07:00 PMDET +7.5
O 229.5
+500 +500
ORL at CLE07:00 PMORL +8.5
O 215.5
+500 +500
BK at MIL07:30 PMMIL -3.5
U 231.0
+500 +500
CHA at NY07:30 PMNY -7.5
O 226.0
+500 +500
PHI at TOR07:30 PMPHI -1.5
U 211.5
+500 +500
IND at CHI08:00 PMCHI -7.0
U 233.5
+500 +500
SA at MIN08:00 PMMIN -9.5
O 234.5
+500 +500
HOU at UTA09:00 PMUTA -8.0
O 232.5
+500 +500
MIA at POR10:00 PMMIA -2.5
U 220.0
+500 +500
LAL at DEN10:00 PMDEN -5.0
U 228.5
+500 +500
 

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NBA OCTOBER'S OPINION'S AND BEST BETS !

10/26/22...............13-6-1...................67.50%.................+32.00
10/25/22................4-4-0....................50.00%..................-2.00
10/24/22................8-8-0....................50.00%..................-4.00
10/23/22................7-7-0....................50.00%..................-3.50
10/22/22................8-8-0....................50.00%..................-4.00
10/21/22..............10-10-0..................50.00%..................-5.00
10/20/22.................3-1-0...................75.00%..................+9.50
10/19/22...............11-11-0..................50.00%..................-5.50
10/18/22..................2-2-0..................50.00%..................- 1.00

TOTALS..............66-57-0...................53.65%................+17.00


BEST BETS

10/26/2022..............6-5-0...................54.54%................+2.50
10/25/22..................3-3-0...................50.00%................-1.50
10/24/22..................4-3-0...................57.14%................+3.50
10/23/22..................4-4-0...................50.00%.................-2.00
10/22/22..................6-6-1...................50.00%.................-3.00
10/21/22..................6-4-2...................60.00%.................+8.00
10/20/22..................3-1-0...................75.00%.................+9.50
10/19/22..................3-6-0..................33.33%.................-18.00
10/18/22..................2-2-0..................50.00%..................- 1.00

TOTALS..............37-34-2...................52.11%.................- 2.00
 

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Armadillo Sports

Thursday’s 6-pack
NFL teams with worst record vs the spread (all 2-5):
— Carolina
— Denver
— Green Bay
— Jacksonville
— New Orleans
— Tampa Bay

Quote of the Day
“I think that, you know, we have to be truthful with one another, and sometimes the truth hurts. I didn’t sit there and listen to the whole thing. So I just think you have to get to the root of the truth. And that gives you an opportunity to learn and grow. And we can’t run away from that, ever. And no different than when we’re in those team meetings. You always call it how it is. And I don’t think anybody’s off limits, starting with myself.”
Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur

Thursday’s quiz
Joel Embiid played one season of college hoop, for which school?

Wednesday’s quiz
First time the Rams played in a Super Bowl, Vince Ferragamo was their QB.

Tuesday’s quiz
Last time the Chicago Bears played in a Super Bowl, Rex Grossman was their QB.

***********************


Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

— We talked a few days ago, about how starting next year, Amazon Prime will televise an NFL game the day after Thanksgiving. Putting an NFL game on at 3:00 in the afternoon on a Friday seems unusual, but there is this: if Amazon can keep people out of shopping malls for a few hours on one of the busiest shopping days of the year, those people are more likely to do their shopping online, where the #1 option is………Amazon.

Go figure.

— Under is 63-44-1 in NFL games this season; only three teams have played more overs than unders— Raiders, Browns, Saints.

Broncos, Colts, Bucs have gone under in six of seven games, Bills/Rams in five of six.

— Best teams against spread this season:
6-1— Falcons, Giants
4-1-1—- Bills
5-2— Bengals, Cowboys, Jets

— Watched one of my all-time favorite movies Wednesday; Fast Break, with Gabe Kaplan as the manager of a New York City deli who quits to become a college basketball coach in Nevada. The movie came out in 1979, when I was a college student who hoped to be a basketball coach one day. Hadn’t seen the movie in a very long time, so this was fun.

I mention this because in the movie, the players at Cadwallader University wear Nikes, when Nike wasn’t that big a deal in 1979— the company didn’t go public until 1980. Nike registered the “swoosh” with the patent/trademark people in 1974.

The basketball parts of this movie are excellent; Gabe Kaplan had being a coach down pat; one of his players was Bernard King, the great NBA player. Michael Warren played at UCLA- he has 87 acting credits on IMDB.com.

— The question of whether to pay Lamar Jackson as a top-flight QB is a quandary the Baltimore Ravens will soon face; Jackson is the #5 rusher in the NFL right now, with 510 yards— no one else on the Ravens has more than 189 rushing yards. Very unusual for a quarterback.

Baltimore beat the Browns 23-20 last week, with Jackson throwing for only 120 yards; he ran for 59 more. Ravens won; Jackson is 42-18 as an NFL starter, impressive. It’ll be fascinating to see what they wind up doing, especially with Jackson acting as his own agent.

— Philadelphia Eagles acquired DE Robert Quinn from the Bears, for a 4th-round draft pick. Eagles are going all-in on a Super Bowl run this season. Eagles are 4th team for Quinn over the last five seasons— he was an All-Pro player for Chicago last year.

— Was watching Kansas State’s football game Saturday; Kurt Warner’s son Kade is a receiver for the Wildcats. Jake Rubley is a backup QB for K-State; his dad TJ Rubley started seven games for the Rams in 1993, but played in only one more NFL game after that, for Green Bay in 1995.

TJ Rubley was Jake’s high school coach, so the kid is well-schooled.

— St Louis Cardinals fired lot of their coaches this week, including pitching coach Mike Maddux. Veteran pitcher Adam Wainwright will be back next year, for his 18th big league season, all with the Redbirds.

— Phillies manager Rob Thomson took the team over this season, when Philly was 22-29; he is trying to join Jack McKeon/Bob Lemon as the only managers to win a World Series after taking the team over during a season.

— Winger Phil Kessel played in his 990th consecutive NHL game this week, setting a record; you have to be a tough SOB to not miss an NHL game for over 12 seasons.

—- Houston, Oklahoma City have the two youngest rosters in the NBA.

— Valparaiso University has switched its nickname from the Crusaders to the Beacons.

— Belmont/Murray State jumped from the OVC to the Missouri Valley Conference this season; Belmont went 94-14 in OVC games the last six years, but played in the NCAA’s only one time in those six years (there was no tourney in 2020).

— Since 2012, Missouri Valley squads are 12-1 in first round of the NCAA Tournament. Jumping from the OVC to the MVC is a large jump, for both programs.
 

Udog

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BROOKLYN is 23-40 ATS (-21 Units) when the total is 22-229.5 in the last 3 seasons.

LA CLIPPERS are 26-12 ATS (12.8 Units) in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 in the last 3 seasons.

MIAMI is 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

MEMPHIS are 19-5 ATS (13.5 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, October 27


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NBA

Thursday, October 27


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Trend Report
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Dallas @ Brooklyn
Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Brooklyn's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Brooklyn's last 15 games

LA Clippers @ Oklahoma City
LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games on the road
Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games at home
Oklahoma City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

Miami @ Golden State
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 8 games when playing Golden State
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Golden State
Golden State is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing Miami

Memphis @ Sacramento
Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games


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Cnotes53

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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 27
DAL at BK07:30 PMDAL -2.5
U 225.5
+500 +500
LAC at OKC08:00 PMLAC -6.5
U 219.0
+500 +500
MIA at GS10:00 PMGS -6.0
O 227.0
+500 +500
MEM at SAC10:00 PMSAC +2.5
O 236.0
+500 +500
 

Cnotes53

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Nov 5, 2017
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NBA OCTOBER'S OPINION'S AND BEST BETS !

10/27/22................3-5-0....................37.50%.................-12.50
10/26/22...............13-6-1...................67.50%.................+32.00
10/25/22................4-4-0....................50.00%..................-2.00
10/24/22................8-8-0....................50.00%..................-4.00
10/23/22................7-7-0....................50.00%..................-3.50
10/22/22................8-8-0....................50.00%..................-4.00
10/21/22..............10-10-0..................50.00%..................-5.00
10/20/22.................3-1-0...................75.00%..................+9.50
10/19/22...............11-11-0..................50.00%..................-5.50
10/18/22..................2-2-0..................50.00%..................- 1.00

TOTALS..............69-62-0...................52.67%...................+ 4.50


*********************************************

BEST BETS


10/27/22..................2-4-0....................33.33%..............-12.00
10/26/22..................6-5-0...................54.54%................+2.50
10/25/22..................3-3-0...................50.00%................-1.50
10/24/22..................4-3-0...................57.14%................+3.50
10/23/22..................4-4-0...................50.00%.................-2.00
10/22/22..................6-6-1...................50.00%.................-3.00
10/21/22..................6-4-2...................60.00%.................+8.00
10/20/22..................3-1-0...................75.00%.................+9.50
10/19/22..................3-6-0..................33.33%.................-18.00
10/18/22..................2-2-0..................50.00%..................- 1.00

TOTALS..............39-38-2...................50.64%..................- 14.00
 

Udog

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Armadillo Sports

Friday’s 6-pack
Colleges with most players on NBA rosters:
27— Kentucky
25— Duke
12— UCLA
11— USC
11— North Carolina
10— Arizona

Quote of the Day
“It’s not even close. I know there’s stuff going around the league right now, there’s some issues. Hands down, we should be playing on grass. Hands down, we should be on grass. And that’s all I’m going to say.”
Cooper Kupp, not a fan of artificial turf

Friday’s quiz
Tom Brady was once drafted in the baseball amateur draft, as a catcher; who drafted him?

Thursday’s quiz
Joel Embiid played one season of college hoop, for Kansas.

Wednesday’s quiz
First time the Rams played in a Super Bowl, Vince Ferragamo was their QB.

*************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with weekend here…….

— Question for you to discuss amongst yourselves:

If somehow we could have a football league with every player ever playing in their prime, under today’s rules, and you had the first pick, who would you want your quarterback to be?

It is an interesting debate.

Ravens 27, Buccaneers 22
Ravens in first half: 41 plays, 141 yards, 3 points.
Ravens in second half: 34 plays, 289 yards, 24 points.
Ravens are 10-1 ATS last eleven games with spread of 3 or less.
Jackson threw ball for 238 yards, ran for 43 more.
AFC North teams are 12-9 ATS in non-divisional games.

3rd down conversions: Ravens 6-13, Bucs 4-13
Rushing yardage: Ravens 33-231, Bucs 15-44
Tampa Bay lost five of its last six games (0-6 ATS)
Tampa Bay is 0-4 this year when it gives up more than 15 points.
NFC South teams are 6-12 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Ryan Fitzpatrick is sitting there on the halftime show for Amazon; he played QB for 17 years in the NFL. I’d rather hear his insights than Kirk Herbstreit’s. Herbstreit never played in the NFL; plus he works college games on Saturday.

NC State 22, Virginia Tech 21
Hokies led 21-3 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
State was 8-19 on third down, Tech 1-11.
Freshman QB Morris was 20-29/265 passing, with three TD’s.

Southern Miss 39, Louisville 24
Golden Eagles led 29-11 at halftime.
Southern Miss had TD passes of 52-76 yards.
USM salted game away with a 52-yard pick-6 with 1:14 left.

— Los Angeles Lakers are 0-4, first time Lebron James has been 0-4 since his rookie year back in 2003. Lakers, by the way, are shooting 22.3% on the arc this season; when you have a great passer on your team, it seems like a wise thing to surround him with good shooters.

— Bengals’ star WR Ja’Marr Chase is out 4-6 weeks with a hip injury, a huge blow to Cincinnati’s chances this season.

— Mac Jones is starting at quarterback for the New England against the Jets Sunday.

— New Jersey Giants drafted WR Kadarius Toney in the first round last year, under a different regime; they traded him to Kansas City Thursday, for 3rd/6th round draft picks. Toney played in only 12 of a possible 23 games with the Giants, catching 41 passes for 420 yards.

— World Series starts tonight; Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola and Astros’ 3B Alex Bregman were college roommates at LSU.

— Houston-Philly World Series goes for the next week; the Week 9 Thursday night NFL game is also Houston-Philly, with Eagles visiting the Texans.

— David Stearns quit as Milwaukee Brewers’ president of baseball operations; Brewers missed the playoffs by a game this year, after making the playoffs the last four years.

Stearns is only 37 years old; guys don’t generally quit big jobs like that. Hope he is OK.

— Doing my preseason college basketball homework, lot of teams have jumped leagues for this season. Belmont/Murray State bolted the OVC for the Missouri Valley. Sun Belt Conference has four new teams, Loyola Chi is in the Atlantic-10 (A-15?) now, CAA added four new teams.

— Dolphins-Lions this week; Jared Goff’s first NFL start came against Miami in 2016, a game I’ve talked about in this space many times. Rams led 10-0 with 5:00 left, lost 14-10. Six years later, lot of people on both sides have changed jobs since then.

— There has been only one kick/punt return for a TD in the NFL this season, Devin Duvernay for the Ravens in Week 2.

— I enjoy researching trends, and thinking about handicapping and then picking winners; one thing that pretty much baffles me is prop betting. I’m not clear on how the bettor has any edge on prop bets; so much depends on coaching adjustments, injuries that happen after the game starts.

If you just want action, prop bets must be awesome; you can wager on most anything, but if you are serious about turning a profit, not sure how great prop bets are.
 
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