CNOTES 2022-2023 NBA TRENDS, NEWS, BEST BETS AND OPINIONS THRU THE PLAYOFFS !

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 27

DET at CHA	07:00 PM	CHA -6.5 U 234.5	+500 +500
MIA at PHI	07:00 PM	MIA +6.0 O 217.0	+500 +500
BOS at NY	07:30 PM	NY +2.5 O 224.0	+500 +500
ORL at NO	08:00 PM	ORL +4.0 O 227.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks

Past Completed Picks

02/27/2023	5-3-0	62.50%	+850	Detail
02/26/2023	8-10-0	44.44%	-1500	Detail
02/25/2023	5-9-0	35.71%	-2450	Detail
02/24/2023	9-7-0	56.25%	+650	Detail
02/23/2023	12-6-0	66.67%	+2700	Detail
02/16/2023	2-3-1	41.67%	-650	Detail
02/15/2023	6-14-0	30.00%	-4700	Detail
02/14/2023	5-5-0	50.00%	-250	Detail
02/13/2023	13-8-1	61.36%	+2100	Detail
02/12/2023	3-1-0	75.00%	+950	Detail
02/11/2023	8-8-1	50.00%	-400	Detail
02/10/2023	12-10-0	54.55%	+500	Detail
02/09/2023	0-5-0	0.00%	-2750	Detail
02/08/2023	11-7-0	61.11%	+1650	Detail
02/07/2023	1-11-0	8.33%	-5550	Detail
02/06/2023	7-8-1	46.88%	-900	Detail
02/05/2023	4-8-0	33.33%	-2400	Detail
02/04/2023	13-5-0	72.22%	+3750	Detail
02/03/2023	11-5-0	68.75%	+2750	Detail
02/02/2023	7-5-0	58.33%	+750	Detail
02/01/2023	5-9-2	37.50%	-2450	Detail

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

Tuesday’s 6-pack
College hoop teams turning the ball over the least, and their records:
13.1%— Penn State (17-12, 8-10)
13.3%— Oral Roberts (27-4, 18-0)
13.4%— Wisconsin (16-12, 8-10)
13.5%— Notre Dame (10-19, 2-16)
13.5%— NC State (22-8, 12-7)
13.8%— Virginia (21-6, 13-5)

Quote of the Day
“It’s easier to fool someone than to convince them that they’ve been fooled.”
Mark Twain

Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Trailblazers’ star Damian Lillard play his college basketball?

Monday’s quiz
Stan Kroenke owns the Los Angeles Rams; he also owns Colorado Avalanche in the NHL and Denver Nuggets in the NBA.

Sunday’s quiz
Baltimore Colts drafted John Elway, then traded him to the Broncos, then moved the franchise to Indianapolis the next year.

*********************************

Tuesday’s Den: Random stuff on a snowy day……..

Atlantic Sun tournament
— Bellarmine 76, North Florida 74— Knights lost by 12 at North Florida three days ago, but won this game on a neutral court, scoring a hoop with 0:00.4 left. Bellarmine now plays at Liberty on Tuesday night, quick turnaround for the lower seed.

— Queens 61, Florida Gulf Coast 55— This is first season in Division I for the Queens Royals; they had lost five of last six games before this win. Queens plays at Kennesaw State Tuesday in the next round of the A-Sun Tournament.

This was the first conference tournament to start; a few more start tonight.

— ACC is having a down basketball season; going into Monday night’s games, Duke (#34), Miami (#37) were the two highest-ranked teams on KenPom.com.

Every year since at least 2002, ACC has had 2+ teams finish in KenPom’s top 20, so they’ve got some work to do for that to happen this year.

— Patriot League tournament is played on higher-seeded teams home courts, but home teams are 47-43 SU in Patriot League games this season, worst home court record for any league in the country.

— Mountain West tournament is in Las Vegas; funny that even though they’re the host school, UNLV hasn’t won the Mountain West tournament since 2008.

— Atlanta Hawks signed Quin Snyder to a 5-year deal to be their new coach; the Duke alum replaces another ACC alum, NC State’s Nate McMillan. Hawks are 31-30, the #8-seed in the East as I type this. McMillan was 110-92 in three years coaching Atlanta.

This is my annual reminder to you that the Hawks’ owner is Tony Ressler, a hedge fund guy and obviously a billionaire. Ressler has been married to actress Jami Gertz for 34 years; she was in Less Than Zero, a terrific movie with Andrew McCarthy/Robert Downey Jr. Funny how a really rich guy has a beautiful wife. Go figure.

Couple years when the Hawks missed the playoffs, Jami Gertz represented them at the NBA’s Draft Lottery. Atlanta is trying for its third straight winning season; we’ll see if the coaching change makes any difference. Snyder was 393-294 coaching the Jazz, only 21-30 in playoff games.

— Milwaukee Bucks got sold this week, to the Haslam family that also owns the Cleveland Browns. Haslam’s paid $3.5B for the Bucks, that’s billion, with a B.

— I watch a ton of college basketball on TV; to me, the TV analyst I learn the most from is Dalen Cuff on ESPN. He isn’t a shill for anyone; he’ll speak the truth and not everyone does that.

— Super Bowl champion Chiefs did the expected, promoted Matt Nagy to offensive coordinator, replacing the departed Eric Bieniemy, who left to be OC at Washington.

— Charger-Bronco games should be interesting next year; Denver hired Joe Lombardi as their new offensive coordinator, six weeks after the Chargers fired him from the same job. Chargers quickly hired former Dallas OC Kellen Moore to replace Lombardi.

— Washington Commanders cut QB Carson Wentz, who went 2-5 as Washington’s starter this past season. Wentz will be on his 4th different team in four years next season; could a reunion with former Colts’ coach Frank Reich happen in Carolina?

— There was a story in The Athletic last week saying at this time last year, Russell Wilson was trying get Pete Carroll fired as coach of the Seahawks; the whole thing ended with Seahawks trading Wilson to Denver, where the Broncos floundered, but now they have Sean Payton as coach, so 2023 should be better for them.

Carroll has coached Seattle for 13 years; he is 138-90-1 there, with a Super Bowl title in 2013.

— Week 2 XFL:
Battlehawks 20, Seattle 18
St Louis won its first two games by a combined 5 points.
Seattle lost its first two games by a combined 6 points.
St Louis kicked a 44-yard FG as time expired for the win.

Defenders 18, Vipers 6
Las Vegas led 6-0 at half, didn’t score in 2nd half on a rainy night in desert.
Vipers completed only 11-23 passes, for 93 yards.
Defenders outgained Las Vegas, 319-177

Brahmas 30, Guardians 12
Total yardage was only 210-175, but San Antonio won going away.
Former Wisconsin QB Coen was 16-24/165 passing, with TD throws to 3 different guys.
Orlando is hurting at QB; Paxton Lynch got benched again. Backup Francois was 6-13 passing for 8 yards.

Roughnecks 23, Renegades 14
Wade Phillips’ team won first two games, by 21-9 points.
Total yardage was 242-125, Houston.
Thru two weeks, favorites are 4-4 ATS, over is 5-3.

— You realize you watch too much TV when you’re sitting there are 5am watching re-runs of The Jetsons on HBO Max; loved that show when I was a kid, but that was also 50 years ago.

— After three days of spring training games, baseball is winning the public relations war with the new pitch clock rules; games have been 20-25 minutes shorter this spring, and announcers on broadcasts are selling the rule changes pretty well

 

[Udog]

WASHINGTON is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) when playing 4 or less games in 10 days in the last 3 seasons.

TORONTO is 12-3 Over (8.7 Units) after scoring 105 points or less in the current season.

MILWAUKEE is 8-0 Under (8 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins in the current season.

MEMPHIS are 15-5 ATS (9.5 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season of the season over the last 2 seasons.

SACRAMENTO is 25-11 Over (12.9 Units) in February games in the last 3 seasons.

HOUSTON is 13-36 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more in the last 3 seasons.

INDIANA is 14-1 Over (12.9 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=13 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

SAN ANTONIO is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) after 6 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 10-1 Over (8.9 Units) in road games in February games over the last 2 seasons.

GOLDEN STATE is 13-1 ATS (11.9 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

 

[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, February 28

 

[Udog]

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, February 28

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WASHINGTON (28 - 32) at ATLANTA (31 - 30) - 2/28/2023, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 61-77 ATS (-23.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 66-82 ATS (-24.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 6-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (28 - 33) at TORONTO (30 - 32) - 2/28/2023, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 16-26 ATS (-12.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 7-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 7-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (43 - 17) at BROOKLYN (34 - 26) - 2/28/2023, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 117-167 ATS (-66.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.
BROOKLYN is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 33-23 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 64-79 ATS (-22.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 48-63 ATS (-21.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 24-47 ATS (-27.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 9-7 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 10-6 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
12 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (29 - 32) at MEMPHIS (36 - 23) - 2/28/2023, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 86-63 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 68-50 ATS (+13.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 59-42 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 50-27 ATS (+20.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
MEMPHIS is 246-195 ATS (+31.5 Units) in home games after allowing 100 points or less since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 227-170 ATS (+40.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 44-31 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 4-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 5-3 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (35 - 25) at OKLAHOMA CITY (28 - 32) - 2/28/2023, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) as an underdog this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 57-40 ATS (+13.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 42-28 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 6-3 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 8-1 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (43 - 19) at HOUSTON (13 - 47) - 2/28/2023, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 20-32 ATS (-15.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
HOUSTON is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.
HOUSTON is 22-32 ATS (-13.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
HOUSTON is 38-64 ATS (-32.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 32-54 ATS (-27.4 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-27 ATS (-12.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
HOUSTON is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) after allowing 130 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 39-65 ATS (-32.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 56-82 ATS (-34.2 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
HOUSTON is 27-40 ATS (-17.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 6-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 8-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (27 - 35) at DALLAS (32 - 30) - 2/28/2023, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
DALLAS is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in non-conference games this season.
DALLAS is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (14 - 47) at UTAH (31 - 31) - 2/28/2023, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 24-37 ATS (-16.7 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 23-37 ATS (-17.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-37 ATS (-18.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in road games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in February games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 33-24 ATS (+6.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
UTAH is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against Southwest division opponents this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 171-131 ATS (+26.9 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 445-379 ATS (+28.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
UTAH is 43-60 ATS (-23.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 4-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 5-3 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (31 - 32) at LA CLIPPERS (33 - 30) - 2/28/2023, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 121-156 ATS (-50.6 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 40-24 ATS (+13.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 45-30 ATS (+12.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 6-4 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 7-3 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (29 - 31) at GOLDEN STATE (31 - 30) - 2/28/2023, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 62-78 ATS (-23.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 28-42 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 144-185 ATS (-59.5 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 4-4 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 5-3 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NBA

Tuesday, February 28

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Trend Report
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Chicago @ Toronto
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Toronto
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Washington @ Atlanta
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington

Milwaukee @ Brooklyn
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee

LA Lakers @ Memphis
LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games
Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Memphis is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games at home

Sacramento @ Oklahoma City
Sacramento
Sacramento is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Sacramento

Denver @ Houston
Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Denver
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver

Indiana @ Dallas
Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing at home against Indiana
Dallas is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Indiana

San Antonio @ Utah
San Antonio
San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah
Utah is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio

Minnesota @ LA Clippers
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
LA Clippers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Portland @ Golden State
Portland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State
Golden State is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Portland
Golden State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home


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[Cnotes53]

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 28

WAS at ATL	07:30 PM	ATL -7.0 U 234.0	+500 +500
MIL at BK	07:30 PM	BK +6.5 O 230.5	+500 +500
LAL at MEM	07:30 PM	LAL +9.0 O 230.5	+500 +500
CHI at TOR	07:30 PM	TOR -5.0 U 219.5	+500 +500
SAC at OKC	08:00 PM	SAC -3.0 U 234.5	+500 +500
DEN at HOU	08:00 PM	DEN -10.5 U 232.0	+500 +500
IND at DAL	08:30 PM	DAL -9.0 O 237.5	+500 +500
SA at UTA	09:00 PM	UTA -10.0 U 236.0	+500 +500
MIN at LAC	10:00 PM	LAC -6.5 U 233.0	+500 +500
POR at GS	10:00 PM	POR +4.0 U 235.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks

Past Completed Picks

02/28/2023	8-12-0	40.00%	-2600	Detail
02/27/2023	5-3-0	62.50%	+850	Detail
02/26/2023	8-10-0	44.44%	-1500	Detail
02/25/2023	5-9-0	35.71%	-2450	Detail
02/24/2023	9-7-0	56.25%	+650	Detail
02/23/2023	12-6-0	66.67%	+2700	Detail
02/16/2023	2-3-1	41.67%	-650	Detail
02/15/2023	6-14-0	30.00%	-4700	Detail
02/14/2023	5-5-0	50.00%	-250	Detail
02/13/2023	13-8-1	61.36%	+2100	Detail
02/12/2023	3-1-0	75.00%	+950	Detail
02/11/2023	8-8-1	50.00%	-400	Detail
02/10/2023	12-10-0	54.55%	+500	Detail
02/09/2023	0-5-0	0.00%	-2750	Detail
02/08/2023	11-7-0	61.11%	+1650	Detail
02/07/2023	1-11-0	8.33%	-5550	Detail
02/06/2023	7-8-1	46.88%	-900	Detail
02/05/2023	4-8-0	33.33%	-2400	Detail
02/04/2023	13-5-0	72.22%	+3750	Detail
02/03/2023	11-5-0	68.75%	+2750	Detail
02/02/2023	7-5-0	58.33%	+750	Detail
02/01/2023	5-9-2	37.50%	-2450	Detail

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

Wednesday’s 6-pack
Conferences whose games are played at the fastest tempo:
1) MEAC
2) Ohio Valley Conference
3) West Coast Conference
4) Ivy League
5) AAC
6) Western Athletic Conference

Quote of the Day
“You’ve got to learn to love the boredom of practicing free throws.”
Steve Kerr

Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie A Star is Born, what well-known actor played Bradley Cooper’s brother?

Tuesday’s quiz
Trailblazers’ star Damian Lillard played his college basketball at Weber State.

Monday’s quiz
Stan Kroenke owns the Los Angeles Rams; he also owns Colorado Avalanche in the NHL and Denver Nuggets in the NBA.

*********************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

— Boise State 66, San Diego State 60— Broncos outscored San Diego State 14-0 over final 4:48; huge win for Boise’s at-large hopes- they’re 13-3 in their last 16 games. Max Rice, the coach’s son, scored 26 points to lead the Broncos.

— Iowa 90, Indiana 68— Hawkeyes made 13-23 on arc, following up on their comeback win vs Michigan State over the weekend, when they scored 23 points in last 1:34 of regulation to force overtime.

— San Jose State 63, Colorado State 46— Spartans are 18-12; this is their best season since 1981. If they win at Air Force Saturday, San Jose gets its first-ever bye in Mountain West tourney.

— Boston College 71, Wake Forest 69— Bad loss for the Deacons; they’re 4-7 in their last 11 games, after a 14-5 start. BC has won three in row; they evened their record at 15-15.

Sun Belt tournament
— Arkansas State 86, Coastal Carolina 69— Red Wolves made 14-25 on the arc; they scored 52 points in second half. ASU won three of last four games, after a 1-13 skid; they play Troy State in the next round.

Horizon tournament
— Detroit 81, Fort Wayne 68— Antoine Davis scored 38 points, needs 26 more to become the all-time scoring leader in D-I history.

Pete Maravich- 3,667 points in 83 games
Antoine Davis- 3,642 points in 143 games, and still going.

Both players played for their dad in college.

— Charleston basketball coach Pat Kelsey signed a 5-year contract extension that will pay him $1.1M a year. Cougars are 28-3 this season, 45-17 in two years under Kelsey.

— I’m a big list maker; one thing on my list for next season in college basketball is adding the Atlantic Sun to the leagues we follow religiously. There are 32 D-I conferences; right now there are eight I mostly ignore; have to decide whether to keep following the OVC or just exchange the ASUN with them.

OVC has gone way downhill, with so many teams defecting; should consider adding the Big South, another conference that has surpassed the OVC.

Elsewhere……..
— If you’re a fan of the Showtime series Billions, there is very good news to report; Damian Lewis is returning to the show to play Bobby Axelrod this coming season.

Lewis left Billions after his wife in real life passed away two years ago; he is scheduled to return midway thru Season 7. The show was still good without him, but it was different, the conflicts a little forced. Axelrod is the main character of the show, so Damian Lewis’ return will invigorate the series, for sure.

— NFL announced that the Hall of Fame Game in Canton this summer is Jets-Browns; once you heard that Joe Klecko/Darrelle Revis were getting inducted, it made sense that the Jets would be in Canton that weekend.

— Half the NFL teams will have new offensive coordinators next year; 16 of 32 teams, which is the highest OC turnover since 2019.

— Atlanta Falcons saved $2M in salary cap space by cutting QB Marcus Mariota, who went 5-8 as a starter for Atlanta last year. His career NFL record is 35-41, 1-1 in playoff games.

— Buffalo Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is stepping away from football this coming season, expects to return in 2024. Whether that will be with Buffalo is still unclear.

— Over the last 10 years, amount of cornerbacks drafted in Rounds 1-3 from Power 5 conferences:
SEC— 36
Big 14— 20
ACC— 19
Pac-12— 19
Big X— 6

— This from NFL expert Warren Sharp:
WR Terry McLaurin has played four seasons with Washington; here are the QB’s he has played with, not exactly a Who’s Who of the position:

201 passes from Taylor Heinicke
98 from Dwayne Haskins
52 from Alex Smith
43 from Carson Wentz
41 from Case Keenum
31 from Kyle Allen
7 from Colt McCoy
6 from Sam Howell
4 from Garrett Gilbert

— Baseball injuries:
Dodgers’ IF Gavin Lux tore his ACL, is out for the year.
Rays’P Tyler Glasnow has an oblique injury, is out 6-8 weeks.
Padres’ P Joe Musgrove broke a toe in a weight-lifting accident.

— NBA injuries
Lakers’ Lebron James (foot) is out at least two weeks; he’ll be re-evaluated then.
Hornets’ LaMelo Ball broke his ankle in a non-contact injury.

— Welcome to March, one of the best months of the year.

 

[Udog]

DETROIT is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.

CHARLOTTE is 102-140 ATS (-52 Units) after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread since 1996.

NEW YORK is 10-2 Over (7.8 Units) in home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 in the current season.

BOSTON is 11-2 Over (8.8 Units) in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in the current season.

PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 ATS (9.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or less in the current season.

HOUSTON is 13-37 ATS (-27.7 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more in the last 3 seasons.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in the current season.

MILWAUKEE is 12-3 Over (8.7 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

NEW ORLEANS are 8-0 Under (8 Units) after scoring 95 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

 

[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 1

 

[Udog]

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (28 - 34) at DETROIT (15 - 47) - 3/1/2023, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) after scoring 100 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
DETROIT is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 7-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 9-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHOENIX (33 - 29) at CHARLOTTE (20 - 43) - 3/1/2023, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 23-37 ATS (-17.7 Units) after allowing 105 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 82-56 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home games in March games since 1996.
PHOENIX is 138-109 ATS (+18.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 108-84 ATS (+15.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 55-38 ATS (+13.2 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game this season.
CHARLOTTE is 241-290 ATS (-78.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 3-2 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 4-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BROOKLYN (34 - 27) at NEW YORK (36 - 27) - 3/1/2023, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 64-80 ATS (-24.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 48-64 ATS (-22.4 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 120-97 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 53-29 ATS (+21.1 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 46-30 ATS (+13.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 139-94 ATS (+35.6 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 5-5 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 9-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (39 - 25) at BOSTON (44 - 18) - 3/1/2023, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 50-68 ATS (-24.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 41-63 ATS (-28.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game since 1996.
BOSTON is 89-73 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) after allowing 105 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 5-3 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 5-3 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (39 - 21) at MIAMI (33 - 29) - 3/1/2023, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 35-25 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 28-18 ATS (+8.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or less this season.
MIAMI is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games this season.
MIAMI is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or less this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 9-5 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-6 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEMPHIS (37 - 23) at HOUSTON (13 - 48) - 3/1/2023, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in road games this season.
MEMPHIS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 87-63 ATS (+17.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 69-50 ATS (+14.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 60-42 ATS (+13.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 54-37 ATS (+13.3 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 228-170 ATS (+41.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 45-31 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 22-35 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 20-33 ATS (-16.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
HOUSTON is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.
HOUSTON is 22-33 ATS (-14.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
HOUSTON is 38-65 ATS (-33.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 34-51 ATS (-22.1 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 32-55 ATS (-28.5 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-28 ATS (-13.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
HOUSTON is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) after allowing 130 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 39-66 ATS (-33.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 56-83 ATS (-35.3 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
HOUSTON is 27-41 ATS (-18.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 4-3 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 6-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA LAKERS (29 - 33) at OKLAHOMA CITY (28 - 33) - 3/1/2023, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 98-120 ATS (-34.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 167-213 ATS (-67.3 Units) in March games since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-3 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 5-3 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ORLANDO (26 - 36) at MILWAUKEE (44 - 17) - 3/1/2023, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 34-23 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or less this season.
ORLANDO is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
MILWAUKEE is 223-286 ATS (-91.6 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 118-167 ATS (-65.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 102-136 ATS (-47.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 5-3 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 8-0 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (30 - 32) at PORTLAND (29 - 32) - 3/1/2023, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 41-55 ATS (-19.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against Southwest division opponents this season.
PORTLAND is 62-79 ATS (-24.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 46-60 ATS (-20.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 4-3 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 4-3 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

NBA

Wednesday, March 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Phoenix @ Charlotte
Phoenix
Phoenix is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games on the road
Charlotte
Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Chicago @ Detroit
Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home

Cleveland @ Boston
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Boston
Boston is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Philadelphia @ Miami
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Miami
Miami is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Miami is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

Brooklyn @ New York
Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games on the road
New York
New York is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New York is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

LA Lakers @ Oklahoma City
LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Lakers's last 7 games
LA Lakers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Oklahoma City is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against LA Lakers

Orlando @ Milwaukee
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Orlando's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Orlando's last 13 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando

Memphis @ Houston
Memphis
Memphis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Memphis's last 16 games
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games

New Orleans @ Portland
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games at home


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

xx

 

[Cnotes53]

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 1

PHO at CHA	07:00 PM	CHA +10.5 O 229.0	+500 +500
CHI at DET	07:00 PM	DET +6.0 O 222.5	+500 +500
BK at NY	07:30 PM	BK +7.5 O 223.5	+500 +500
PHI at MIA	07:30 PM	PHI +1.5 U 215.0	+500 +500
CLE at BOS	07:30 PM	CLE +5.0 O 219.0	+500 +500
LAL at OKC	08:00 PM	LAL +3.5 O 228.0	+500 +500
MEM at HOU	08:00 PM	MEM -10.0 U 230.5	+500 +500
ORL at MIL	08:00 PM	MIL -8.5 U 227.5	+500 +500
NO at POR	10:00 PM	POR -2.5 O 234.0	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks

Past Completed Picks

03/01/2023	11-6-1	63.89%	+2200	Detail

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

Thursday’s 6-pack
Conferences whose games are played at the slowest tempo:
32) Metro Atlantic
31) Big 14
30) Mountain West
29) Patriot League
28) Big South
27) Big Sky

Quote of the Day
“We don’t feel like we’re pressed, but that doesn’t mean our eyes aren’t on a quarterback.”
Detroit Lions’ coach Dan Campbell

Thursday’s quiz
In the old TV show Gilligan’s Island, what was the rich guy’s name?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie A Star is Born, Sam Elliott played Bradley Cooper’s brother.

Tuesday’s quiz
Trailblazers’ star Damian Lillard played his college basketball at Weber State.

********************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

— Alabama 90, Auburn 85 OT— This was as fiercely played a regular season game as I can remember seeing; Auburn led by 17 at one point, but in a game that didn’t end until 9:50 pm (started at 7:00), the host Crimson Tide won and with it, the regular season title in the SEC is also theirs.

Auburn has lost eight of its last eleven games, is now a bubble team that is trending in the wrong direction.

— Tennessee point guard Zakai Zeigler tore his ACL Tuesday night, is out for the year; Zeigler was averaging 10.7 ppg, 5.4 assists/game for the 22-8 Vols.

— Iowa State tossed senior guard Caleb Grill off the team Wednesday, a week before the Big X tournament, a huge red flag for the team. On January 10, the Cyclones were 13-2, but since then they’ve lost nine of 13 games, losing last four in a row, scoring only 57 ppg.

Grill said “I said something that I regret which has cost me the opportunity to finish out my dream at Iowa State.”

Losing can be stressful for a team; sounds like the pot boiled over for Iowa State, and now a team that is #203 in bench minutes is without one of its better guards.

— TCU 75, Texas 73— Horned Frogs even though their star Mike Miles scored only one point in 36:00. Texas has lost four in a row on road, by 8-7-9-2 points.

— Missouri 81, LSU 76— Mizzou was down 43-24 late in first half; they win even though LSU made 14-28 on the arc. This is Missouri’s best season since 2014.

— Vanderbilt 68, Kentucky 66— Wildcats outscored Vandy 25-10 on foul line, but were just 25-35 on the charity stripe; 10 missed free throws in a 2-point loss is no bueno. Vandy has won seven of its last eight games; they’re 36-30 the last two seasons.

— Survive and advance; Jim Valvano used to talk about that, how in the NCAA Tournament, you give your all to win your next game, then you move on to the next line in the bracket, and do the same thing all over again. Play one game at a time.

This season, with no dominant team, no obvious favorite to win the title, survive/advance will become a mantra once again. Picking our brackets ain’t going to be easy.

— Going thru some NCAA Tournament trends, found a weird one on the play-in games that get the field down from 68 to 64 teams.

There are two levels of play-in games, the two #16-seed games, with the worst of the league champs facing off, then the worst four at-large teams also have two play-in games. It almost seems like JV and Varsity play-in games.

How do the four teams that win the play-in games do in the Round of 64?

Over the last ten years, the two teams who won the 16-seed play-in games went 1-1 against the spread in the next round all 10 years. None of them won SU; we know that UMBC is the only #16-seed to ever beat a #1-seed, and they weren’t a play-in team.

So none of the #16-seeds won, but they’ve gone 10-10 ATS, 1-1 every year.

As for the “varsity” play-in games, the bigger schools involved, over the last seven years, they also went 1-1 ATS in the next round, but six of the seven teams who covered also won SU.

So, of the last 14 teams to be an at-large team that played an extra game in Dayton, six of those 14 teams won the 2nd game too, and got to the Round of 32.

— A study showed over the last three years, NFL games had an average of 154 plays/game, while college games had an average of 180 plays. Is there any other sport where the college version is longer than the pro version?

College football leaders are looking at ways to shorten their game; not stopping the clock after first downs seems to be the easiest one.

— Philadelphia Eagles hired a new offensive coordinator, Sean Desai, who spent last year with the Seahawks after working with Chicago before that. Desai’s mentor is Vic Fangio; don’t expect the Eagles to blitz a lot.

Eagles promoted Brian Johnson to offensive coordinator, replacing the departed Shane Steichen after he became the Colts’ new coach.

Johnson played QB at Utah, was Dak Prescott’s QB coach at Mississippi State.

— If I ran MLB Network, there would be a fantasy league where the team managers would be
a) former players
b) MLB Network personalities
c) non-baseball celebrities
d) two fans picked via some kind of contest

The draft itself would be great TV, then a weekly zoom call with league members with trades and players getting cut. I’m telling you, this is a good idea. People would follow it. You could even bet on which teams would win.

— Padres’ P Joe Musgrove broke his toe when he dropped a barbell on his foot while working out. He isn’t going to throw for a few weeks while his foot heals.

— The great TV show M*A*S*H went off the air 40 years ago this week; it has lived on in re-runs since then, I still watch them sometimes on Hulu. Very funny show, great writing/acting.

Always try to laugh a little before bed every night; M*A*S*H and Odd Couple are a great help.

 

[Udog]

TORONTO is 12-4 Over (7.6 Units) after scoring 105 points or less in the current season.

DALLAS are 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.

INDIANA is 13-3 Under (9.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

LA CLIPPERS are 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.




NBA

Thursday, March 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto @ Washington
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Toronto is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games

Philadelphia @ Dallas
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Dallas is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Indiana @ San Antonio
Indiana
Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Antonio's last 8 games when playing Indiana
San Antonio is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Indiana

LA Clippers @ Golden State
LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State
Golden State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home


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[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, March 2

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 2

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TORONTO (31 - 32) at WASHINGTON (29 - 32) - 3/2/2023, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 170-212 ATS (-63.2 Units) in March games since 1996.
TORONTO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
TORONTO is 372-312 ATS (+28.8 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or less since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 62-77 ATS (-22.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 168-210 ATS (-63.0 Units) off an upset win as an underdog since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 5-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (40 - 21) at DALLAS (32 - 31) - 3/2/2023, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 650-554 ATS (+40.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in non-conference games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or less this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
DALLAS is 23-37 ATS (-17.7 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
DALLAS is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (28 - 35) at SAN ANTONIO (15 - 47) - 3/2/2023, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 622-539 ATS (+29.1 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 217-174 ATS (+25.6 Units) in March games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 420-355 ATS (+29.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 937-829 ATS (+25.1 Units) after allowing 105 points or less since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 25-37 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 24-37 ATS (-16.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 23-37 ATS (-17.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 3-2 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (33 - 31) at GOLDEN STATE (32 - 30) - 3/2/2023, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 5-4 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 5-4 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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