NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 5
Sunday’s games
Jets vs
Vikings (-2.5) (@ London)
Jets (2-2)
Jets scored 24-24 points in wins, 19-9 in losses.
Jets outscored opponents 20-3 in first half.
Jets’ last three opponents were 10-37 on third down.
Team total: over 2-1-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1
Under Saleh, Jets are 17-26 ATS as an underdog.
Under Saleh, Jets are 15-17 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Saleh, Jets are 4-11-1 ATS vs NFC teams.
Rodgers is 161-87-1 as an NFL starter.
Last three QB’s Jets faced: Levis, Brissett, Nix. Not good.
Vikings (4-0)
Minnesota won first four games, scoring 29 ppg.
Vikings have outscored opponents 69-17 in first half.
Vikings are 9-5-3 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents
Team total: over 4-0
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1
QB Darnold is 25-35 as an NFL starter, 4-0 with Vikings.
Darnold was 13-25 as Jets’ QB from 2018-20.
Vikings are 8-1-1 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
Vikings are 14-10-3 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Minnesota has ten takeaways in four games (+3 turnovers)
Minnesota won last three series games, scoring 27-37-30 points.
Last four meetings went over the total.
Rodgers is 17-11-1 in his career, against the Vikings.
Panthers @
Bears (-3.5)
Panthers (1-3)
Carolina split Dalton’s two starts, scoring 36-24 points.
Panthers scored 7 TD’s on 20 drives, were 12-26 on third down.
Dalton averaged 7.8/5.4 yards/pass attempt (3.9/2.5 weeks 1-2).
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1
Carolina is 8-16-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog.
Over is 3-1 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers opponents are 26-53 on third down.
Dalton is 84-83-2 as an NFL starter, mostly with Cincinnati.
Bears (2-2)
Bears scored 24-24 points in its win, 13-16 in losses.
Chicago was outscored 46-23 in first half of those games.
Bears outscored opponents 54-29 in second half of those games.
Team total: under 2-1-1
Opponents’ team total: under 4-0
Under Eberflus, Bears are 4-3-1 ATS as home favorites.
Home team won all four of their games (favorites 3-1 ATS)
Bears are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Rookie QB Williams averaged 3.0/3.0/5.9/5.1 yards/pass in his games.
Under is 3-1 in Chicago’s four games.
Bears swindled Carolina in big trade last year, just before the draft.
Chicago won six of last seven series games.
Panthers are 0-5 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Chicago.
Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Ravens (-2.5) @
Bengals
Ravens (2-2)
Baltimore won last two games, scoring 28-35 points.
Ravens have outscored opponents 61-28 in first half.
Ravens are 18-4 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1
Ravens are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
Over is 3-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 62-25 as an NFL starter.
Baltimore is 15-17 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
Last two weeks, Ravens ran ball for 274-271 yards.
Last five years, Ravens are 9-6 ATS in AFC North road games.
Bengals (1-3)
Last three games, Bengals scored 25-33-34 points.
Last two games, Bengals scored 8 TD’s on 17 drives.
Cincinnati lost its two home games, by 6-5 points.
Team total: over 3-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1-1
Bengals are 7-4-2 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog.
QB Burrow is 35-27-1 as an NFL starter.
Cincinnati is 13-4-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win
Last three games, Bengal defense has allowed 26-38-24 points.
Bengals are 9-6 ATS last 15 AFC North home games.
Baltimore is 9-5 in last 14 series games.
Ravens are 1-3 SU/2-2 SU in last four visits to Cincinnati.
Over is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Dolphins (-1) @
Patriots
Dolphins (1-3)
Miami has QB injury issues; recently-signed Huntley gets his 2nd start here.
Huntley is 3-8 as an NFL starter.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-2 ATS in AFC East road games.
Team total: under 4-0
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1
Last three games, Dolphins have two touchdown on 33 drives.
Miami has been outscored 67-23 in first half of games.
Last two games, Dolphins were outscored 36-9 in second half.
Miami is 7-11 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last two games, Dolphins were 3-24 on 3rd down.
Miami has played four QB’s in four games; not ideal.
Patriots (1-3)
Patriots have scored only four TD’s on their first 40 drives.
New England lost last three games, outscored 51-19 in first half.
Patriots are 30-42 since Tom Brady left town.
Team total: under 2-1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1
NE is 1-6-1 ATS in last eight games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
New England gave up 23-24-30 points in losing last three games.
Patriots were 13-43 on third down in those games.
Patriots are 3-6 ATS in last nine AFC East home games.
Patriots QB Brissett is 19-33 as an NFL starter.
Miami won five of last six series games.
Dolphins covered four of last five visits to Foxboro.
Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
Browns @
Commanders (-3)
Browns (1-2)
Cleveland scored 17-18-15 points in its 1-2 start.
Browns are 8-43 on 3rd down so far, 7-11 on 4th down.
Browns have gained 230-297-217 yards in their three games.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1
Browns won their only road game; visitors are 3-0 ATS in their games.
QB Watson is 38-33 as an NFL starter, 9-6 with Browns.
Cleveland is 11-3-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Browns have averaged 2.74.8/3.3 yards/pass attempt.
Commanders (3-1)
Commanders won/covered last three games, scoring 38-42 points in last two.
First time since 1991 that Washington scored 38+ points in consecutive games.
Last three games, Commanders scored 10 TD’s, kicked 10 FG’s on 22 drives.
Team total: over 3-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-2
Commanders are 3-7 ATS last ten games as a home favorite (1-0 TY).
Washington converted 21 of last 35 third down plays.
Commanders are 18-9-1 ATS in last 28 games coming off a win.
Washington is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC opponents.
Over is 3-1 in Washington games this year.
Cleveland won last two series games, 24-10/34-20.
Browns lost two of last three visits to Washington.
Three of last four meetings went over the total.
Colts @
Jaguars (-3)
Colts (2-2)
Colts won their last two games, by 5-3 points.
39-year old backup QB Flacco was 16-26/168 LW, with 2 TD passes.
Just like LY, Indy is better off with its backup QB than Richardson.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: under 2-2
Last three weeks, Colts ran ball for 140-150-133 yards.
Indy is 17-16 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
Flacco is 113-88 as an NFL starter, 5-9 since 2020.
Under Steichen, Colts are 2-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Steichen, Colts are 10-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Jaguars (0-4)
Jaguars lost first four games, scoring six TD’s on 39 drives.
In four games, Jaguars are 11-44 on third down.
Last three games, Jaguars were outscored 64-19 in first half.
Team total: under 3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1
Jacksonville has been outscored 32-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
Lawrence has averaged only 5.8/5.8/2.9/4.6 yards/pass attempt.
QB Lawrence is 21-35 as an NFL starter.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 4-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Last five years, Jaguars are 8-6 ATS in AFC South home games.
Jaguars are 11-19 ATS in last 30 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Jaguars won three in row, five of last seven series games.
Colts are 0-9 SU/ATS in last nine visits to Jacksonville.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Bills @
Texans (-1.5)
Bills (3-1)
Bills scored 34-31-47 points in their wins; their loss was 35-10.
Buffalo have converted 15 of 42 third down plays.
Bills scored 13 TD’s on their first 26 drives; they had one TD on 10 drives LW.
Team total: over 3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-2
Buffalo is 9-4-2 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
Bills are 4-5 ATS in last nine games coming off a loss.
QB Allen is 71-36 as NFL starter.
Bills are 15-4-1 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Buffalo outscored first four foes 17-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
Texans (3-1)
Texans have wins by 2-6-4 points.
Their only loss was 34-7 at 4-0 Minnesota.
Last three games, Texans ran ball for 75-38-101 yards.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1
Texans are 4-12 ATS last 16 games as home favorites.
Houston is 4-9 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 13-8 as an NFL starter.
Houston is 5-7 ATS in last 12 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under is 3-0 in their last three games.
Houston WR Diggs wasn’t happy when he left Buffalo.
Texans won five of last seven series games.
Bills are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in last four visits to Houston.
Raiders @
Broncos (-3)
Raiders (2-2)
Raiders have given up 22-23-36 points in their 1-2 start.
Las Vegas is 6-3 ATS in last nine games following a win.
Raiders’ two wins were by 3-4 points, losses by 12-14.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: over 2-2
Raiders are 19-12 ATS last 31 games as a road underdog.
Raiders are 9-7 ATS in their last 16 AFC West road games.
Raiders have converted only 16-49 third down plays.
Under is 17-10 in their last 27 road games.
QB Minshew is 17-24 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.
Broncos (2-2)
Denver lost only home game 13-6; visitor is 4-0 ATS in their games.
Broncos outscored last three opponents 22-6 in second half.
Denver is only 14-57 on third down conversions.
Team total: over 2-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1
Under Payton, Denver is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Denver held last three opponents to 251/223/248 yards.
Last three opponents scored two TD’s on 33 drives.
Rookie QB Nix hasn’t thrown TD pass yet, has four INT’s.
Broncos are 9-16 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Denver’s last three games stayed under the total.
Las Vegas won nine in row (8-1 ATS) against the Broncos.
Raiders won their last four visits (3-1 ATS) to Denver.
Over is 3-2 in last five series games.
Cardinals @
49ers (-7.5)
Cardinals (1-3)
Arizona lost last two games, scoring 13-14 points (28-41 weeks 1-2)
Cardinals are 15-12 ATS last 27 games coming off a loss.
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in last six NFC West road games.
Team total: over 2-2
Opponents’ team total: under 2-2
QB Murray is 29-40-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals are 15-8 ATS last 23 games as a road underdog.
Last two games, Arizona converted 5-20 on third down (14-24 first two games).
Last two games, opponents are 15-24 on third down.
Over is 3-1 in Arizona games this year.
49ers (2-2)
49ers gave up 19-13 points in their wins, 23-27 in losses.
49ers have gained 399+ total yards in all four games.
Last two weeks, SF averaged 9.3/10.1 yards/pass attempt.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1-1
49ers are 12-6 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.
QB Purdy is 23-7 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is 7-5 ATS last 12 NFC West home games.
49ers are 14-10-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
49ers outscored last two opponents 34-10 in first half.
49ers won/covered last four meetings.
Cardinals split their last six visits to Santa Clara.
Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
Packers (-3.5) @
Rams
Packers (2-2)
Green Bay’s two losses were 34-29/31-29.
Packers have three takeaways in all four games (+6 turnovers)
Green Bay outscored last two foes 30-7 in first half.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1
First three games, Packers ran ball for 163/261/188 yards.
Last week, Green Bay ran for only 86 yards.
Green Bay is 2-9-1 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite.
Green Bay is 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Over is 3-1 in their first four games.
Rams (1-3)
Rams have been outscored 58-19 in first half of games.
Even in their one win, they trailed 14-0 early on.
Under McVay, Rams are 24-17-3 ATS coming off a loss.
Team total: under 3-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1
Rams have been outrushed 662-353 in four games.
Rams are 17-46 on third down, opponents 22-52.
LA is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games as a home dog.
Under McVay, Rams are 3-4 ATS in their pre-bye game.
Rams’ last three games went over the total.
Green Bay won four in row, nine of last ten meetings.
Rams’ only win in last ten meetings was 29-27 in 2018.
Packers won four of last five road series games.
Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Giants @
Seahawks (-6.5)
Giants (1-3)
Giants scored six TD’s on 19 drives in their two road games.
Giants haven’t scored a TD on 19 drives in their two home games.
Big Blue has been outscored 41-15 in second half of games.
Team total: under 3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-2
All four of their games stayed under the total. .
Under Daboll, Giants are 13-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Daboll, Giants are 10-7 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Jones is 24-40-1 as an NFL starter.
Opponents are only 17-48 on third down.
Seahawks (3-1)
Short week for Seattle after its Monday night loss in Detroit
QB’s they beat so far: Nix, Brissett, Thompson. Not great.
Goff was 18-18/292 passing in Monday nite’s game.
Team total: over 4-0
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1
QB Smith is 33-38 as an NFL starter, 21-19 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 2-0 at home, beating Denver 26-20/Miami 24-3
Seahawks are 18-13 in last 31 games coming off a loss.
Opponents have converted 15 of 52 third down plays.
Seattle has Thursday nite divisional tilt with 49ers on deck.
Seahawks won/covered six of last seven series games.
Giants are 2-4 SU/3-3 ATS in last six visits to Seattle.
Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Cowboys @
Steelers (-2.5)
Cowboys (2-2)
Cowboys gave up 17-15 points in wins, 44-28 in losses.
Road team won/covered all four of their games.
Dallas is 20-15 ATS in last 35 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 3-1
Opponents’ team total
ver 2-2
Dallas is 7-10 ATS last 17 games as a road underdog.
QB Prescott is 77-48 as an NFL starter.
Dallas is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
Cowboys allowed 14.2/12.1 yards/pass attempt in their losses.
Over is 3-1 in Dallas games this season.
Steelers (3-1)
Steelers allowed 10-6-10 points in wins; their loss was 27-24.
Pittsburgh beat Chargers 20-10 in its only home game.
Steelers are 5-4 ATS last nine games as a home favorite.
Team total: under 3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1
Steelers gave up a total of 2 TD’s in first three games- Colts had 3 TD’s LW.
QB Fields is 13-29 as an NFL starter (3-1 with Steelers).
Pittsburgh is 14-8 in its last 22 games coming off a loss.
Steelers are 14-7-1 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under is 3-1 in their games this season.
Steelers won three of last five series games.
Teams split two meetings in Pittsburgh.
Over is 3-2 in last five series games.
Saints @
Chiefs (-5)
Saints (2-2)
New Orleans lost its last two games, by 3-2 points.
Saints scored 47-44 points in wins, 12-24 in losses.
New Orleans has outscored opponents 82-36 in first half.
Team total: over 3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1
Saints are 16-5-1 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
Last week, Saints gave up TDs on offense, special teams, lost 26-24.
Last 5+ years, New Orleans is 20-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB Carr is 74-90 as an NFL starter.
Over is 3-1 in their games this season.
Chiefs (4-0)
Chiefs won their first four games, by 7-1-5-7 points.
Kansas City is 4-0 despite being minus-6 in turnovers.
Chiefs trailed at halftime in three of the four games.
Team total: under 4-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-2
KC is 15-18 ATS last 33 games as a home favorite.
QB Mahomes is 93-25 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in last 11 regular season games vs NFC teams.
Chiefs have outscored opponents 49-22 in second half.
KC is 10-16 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
Chiefs won last three meetings, by 3-6-3 points.
Saints are 1-1 SU/2-0 ATS in last two visits to Arrowhead.
Under is 3-1-1 in last five series games.