Cnotes NL 2024-2025 Schedule, Best Bets, Opinons, News !

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s 6-pack:
Interesting bowl spreads……..
— Memphis -4.5 vs West Virginia
— California -1.5 vs UNLV
— Indiana @ Notre Dame -7.5
— SMU @ Penn State -9
— Clemson @ Texas -11
— Tennessee @ Ohio State -7.5

Quote of the Day
“You can shear a sheep many times, but only skin him once.”
Amarillo Slim

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the New York Knicks, who has scored the most points?

Thursday’s quiz
Who is the Kansas City Chiefs’ all-time leader in passing touchdowns?

Wednesday’s quiz
Jameis Winston played his college football at Florida State.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s 6-pack:
Interesting bowl spreads……..
— Memphis -4.5 vs West Virginia
— California -1.5 vs UNLV
— Indiana @ Notre Dame -7.5
— SMU @ Penn State -9
— Clemson @ Texas -11
— Tennessee @ Ohio State -7.5

Quote of the Day
“You can shear a sheep many times, but only skin him once.”
Amarillo Slim

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the New York Knicks, who has scored the most points?

Thursday’s quiz
Who is the Kansas City Chiefs’ all-time leader in passing touchdowns?

Wednesday’s quiz
Jameis Winston played his college football at Florida State.

***************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….​

— Rams 12, 49ers 6
Rams’ first five drives: 23 plays, 51 yards, five punts
Rams’ last five drives: 45 plays, 218 yards, four field goals.
Steady rain in 2nd quarter; no rain in second half, until last 2:00
Rams won 44-42 last week, 12-6 this week.
Really good teams find different ways to win games.
Rams outgained San Francisco, 302-191; there were no TD’s in this game.
QB Stafford threw for 160 yards, 97 of them to WR Nucua.
RB Williams ran ball 29 times for 108 yards.
49ers completed only 14-31 passes (3.8 yards/attempt).
San Francisco has now lost four of its last five games.

— In a year where strange things keep happeniong, Bill Belichick is the new football coach at North Carolina, at age 72. Belichick won six Super Bowls as an NFL head coach; he has never coached in college. This is going to be very interesting.

— Iowa State 89, Iowa 80
Cyclones trailed 62-53 with 11:37 left in the game.
Both teams shot 11-28 on the arc.
ISU’s Jefferson was 10-12 on foul line; entire Iowa team was 13-15.

— Strange but true stat: So far this season, SEC basketball teams are 26-3 vs ACC teams.

— QB Tommy DeVito is starting at QB for the Giants this week against Baltimore; Drew Lock is in a walking boot.
Saints are giving Jake Haener his first NFL start this week, with Derek Carr hurt.

— QB transfer info:
QB Thomas Castellanos is bolting from Boston College to Florida State, where he will re-unite with FSU’s new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, who coached Castellanos at UCF.
QB Connor Weigman is bolting from Texas A&M to Houston, which is 4-8 in its first season as a Big X team.

— Former UNLV coach Barry Odom is now the Purdue coach, after going 19-8 with the Rebels the last two seasons. Odom had previously gone 25-25 in four years at Missouri.
Purdue has some advantages that UNLV doesn’t; a strong alumni base led by former NFL star Drew Brees, a recently renovated stadium, other upgraded facilities and a reputation as a cradle of quarterbacks. UNLV has Allegiant Stadium, but not much of a football history.
Big 18 is also a much deeper pond than the Mountain West; Purdue has finished under .500 in 10 of their last 13 seasons.

— Famous birthdays, December 13:
Dick Van Dyke, 99
Ferguson Jenkins, 82
Lemar Parrish, 77
Larry Kenon, 72
Andre Turner, 60
Jamie Foxx, 57
Scott Zolak, 57
Ricky Nolasco, 43
Taylor Swift, 35
Luis Garcia, 28
Gleyber Torres, 28
Brock Bowers, 22

— 1B/2B Spencer Horwitz had himself an eventful day Tuesday; first, the Blue Jays traded him to Cleveland, part of a 4-player deal.
Later that day, the Guardians traded him to Pittsburgh, for P Luis Ortiz and two prospects.
Horwitz played in 97 games for Toronto LY, hitting .265 with 12 home runs, and a .790 OPS. Not often a guy gets traded twice in the same day.

— Texas Rangers acquired 1B/3B Jake Burger from Miami, in exchange for three prospects; Burger hit .250 with 29 homers for the Marlins LY, with a .750 OPS.
He is expected to mostly be a DH for the Rangers.

— Unusual to read that 3B Nolan Arenado is asking off the St Louis Cardinals because he thinks they’re in decline; he has a no-trade clause in his contract, but supposedly will agree to be dealt to a contending team— he might even agree to move to first base.
Arenado is an 8-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove winner who is entering his age-34 season and coming off his worst offensive year (.272/.325/.394) since his rookie season.

— White Sox traded P Garrett Crochet to Boston to four prospects, two of whom got a strong thumbs-up from MLB Network analyst/former Colorado GM Dan O’Dowd.
Catcher Kyle Teel, OF Braden Montgomery are the two prospects.

— Rule 5 Draft was this week: it is designed to prevent teams from stockpiling too many young players. Players not on a team’s 40-man roster can be chosen by other clubs.
If a player is chosen in the Rule 5 draft, the player must be kept on the selecting team’s major league active roster for the entire season that follows the draft, so the 15 guys taken this week will be in the big leagues this entire season.
11 of the 15 players chosen this week are pitchers.

— RIP George Kreske, better known as the Amazing Kreskin, who passed away this week at age 88; when I was a kid, Kreskin was a fixture on a lot of talk shows- he was on The Tonight Show 88 times.
Kreskin was a “mentalist”, kind of like a psychic; one of his best-known tricks was to find his own paycheck for his current performance.
If he did not find it, he didn’t get paid for that day. He would instruct the audience to hide an envelope containing his paycheck, while he was escorted off stage and into seclusion by other members of the audience. He then re-emerged and hunted through the audience, almost always being able to find where it was.
It was fun to watch his act, especially as a kid. RIP, sir.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Teams that have scored most points in the 4th quarter this year:
118— Colts
116— Eagles
114— Buccaneers
112— Bills
108— Ravens
102— Bears

Quote of the Day
“Baseball hasn’t forgotten me. I go to a lot of Old Timers’ games and I haven’t lost a thing. I sit in the bullpen and let people throw things at me, just like old times.”
Bob Uecker

Saturday’s quiz
Josh Harris owns the NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers and the NHL’s New Jersey Devils; which NFL team does he own?

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the New York Knicks, Patrick Ewing has scored the most points.

Thursday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes is the Kansas City Chiefs’ all-time leader in passing touchdowns.

*********************************************

Saturday’s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind……..​

— Houston Astros traded OF Kyle Tucker to the Cubs Friday, for 3B/1B Isaac Paredes, P Hayden Wesneski and IF prospect Cam Smith.
Tucker has a career OPS of .870, hitting 112 homers the last four years; he is a free agent after next season.

— Cubs also added C Carson Kelly on a 2-year, $11.5M contract; Kelly has played most of his career with Arizona- he is .224 career hitter who is well thought of defensively.

— Milwaukee Brewers traded closer Devin Williams to Bronx for P Nestor Cortes and a prospect; New York apparently also tossed $4.5M in to complete the deal.
Williams had 36 saves in 2023, was hurt a lot of last year, had only 14 saves- he had a 1.25 ERA in his 21.2 IP last year.
Cortes was 9-10, 3.77 in 30 starts last year; he was 33-20, 3.61 in 84 starts for New York the last four seasons.

— Two short years ago, Juan Soto turned down a 15-year, $440M deal with Washington; now he has a 15-year contract worth $325M more than that.

— Nebraska 85, Indiana 68
Cornhuskers shot 62.9% inside arc, scored 1.23 points/possession.
Indiana is 2-3 vs top 100 teams; they shot 8-35 on the arc.

— Seattle Redhawks are bolting from the WAC to the WCC next year; Seattle is off to a slow 3-6 start this season, but the last three years, they were 66-35, 36-20 in WAC games.

— Bronny James played in his first road game in the G-League Thursday; he scored 30 points for the South Bay Lakers in a 106-100 loss to the Valley Suns. ,Lakers are 4-9, 0-6 on the road. Not really sure why James didn’t play in their first five road games.

Famous birthdays, December 14th:
Dee Wallace, 76
Cynthia Gibb, 61
Craig Biggio, 59
Scott Hatteberg, 55
Billy Koch, 50
Nicolas Batum, 36
Adam Frazier, 33
Ryan McMahon, 30
DK Metcalf, 27

— I’m not a fan of Thursday night NFL games; I think the product isn’t as good- football wasn’t meant to be played on three days’ rest.
Understood that NFL owners just want to wring as much $$$ as they can out of the TV system and Amazon is helping them with the Thursday package, but at same point, the quality of the product needs to matter.
I’d be in favor of Monday night NFL doubleheaders instead of Thursday games.

— As far as I can tell, there are seven teams playing in bowls this month who have changed head coaches, either firing theirs or having them move on to a different job.
Irony for $500, Alex: North Carolina’s bowl game is in Fenway Park, where a long time ago, the Patriots used to play home games. Bill Belichick is UNC’s new head coach; am guessing he’ll do the TV rounds to get publicity to help their recruiting.

— QB Hank Brown is bolting from Auburn to Iowa; he threw for 403 yards, six TD’s for Auburn this season. He has three years of eligibility left. Brown played high school ball at Lipscomb Academy in Tennessee, where his coach was former NFL QB Trent Dilfer.

— UNLV named ESPN analyst Dan Mullen its new football coach; he worked on ESPN the last three years (and was very good) after going 69-46 as the coach at Mississippi State, 34-15 at Florida. He has a 7-3 record in bowl games.

— Florida Atlantic named 33-year old Zach Kittley their new football coach; he is the youngest I-A head coach in the country. Kittley originally went to Abilene Christian to play basketball, but transferred to Texas Tech and worked as a student assistant to coach Sonny Cumbie, then became a grad assistant, where he worked with a QB named Patrick Mahomes.
He’s been Tech’s offensive coordinator the last three years. Red Raiders are 8-4 this season; they scored 56-52 points in their last two games.

— Kenny Dillingham is Arizona State’s 34-year old football coach; he started coaching when he was 17 years old, after tearing his ACL in high school. ASU is 11-2 this season and won the Big X title in their first year in the league.
2007-12- Chaparral HS, QB coach
2013- Chaparral HS, offensive coordinator (age 21)
2014-15- Offensive assistant, Arizona State
2016- Grad assistant, Memphis
2017- QB/TE coach, Memphis
2018- Offensive coordinator/QB coach, Memphis
2019- Offensive coordinator/QB coach, Auburn
2020-21- Offensive coordinator/QB coach, Florida State
2022- Offensive coordinator/QB coach, Oregon
2023-present- Head coach, Arizona State

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday’s 6-pack:
NFL teams with best record against spread:
10-3— Steelers, Broncos
9-4— Lions, Chargers
8-4-1— Vikings, Commanders
8-5— Eagles, Arizona, Bucs, Bills, Colts
7-5-1— Jaguars
6-5-2— Bears

Quote of the Day
“Any time coaches leave to take other jobs, it is emotional, and kids that are 18 to 22 years old are going to make emotional decisions instead of just breathing for a day or two.”
Marshall football coach Tony Gibson; his team had to opt out of their bowl game because lot of the players transferred after the previous coach moved on to another job

Sunday’s quiz
Who won the first Super Bowl played in a domed stadium?

Saturday’s quiz
Josh Harris owns the NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers and the NHL’s New Jersey Devils; he also owns the NFL’s Washington Commanders.

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the New York Knicks, Patrick Ewing has scored the most points.

**************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……..​

— UConn 77, Gonzaga 71
UConn shot 62.9% inside the arc.
Huskies are 4-0 since their 0-3 trip to Maui.
Gonzaga is 2-3 in its last five games; they’re 4-3 vs top 100 teams

— UCLA 57, Arizona 54
Arizona led by 13 with 10:11 left in the game.
UCLA survived shooting 7-16 on foul line, 4-21 on arc.
Arizona is off to a 4-5 start, albeit vs schedule #24.

— Tennessee 66, Illinois 64
Gainey scored 23 off bench; he scored on driving layup at the buzzer for the win.
Illinois led by six with 10:21 left to play.
Teams combined to shoot 10-47 on the arc.

— Dayton 71, Marquette 63
Marquette led by 10 at halftime.
Dayton shot 59.5% inside the arc.

— SMU 74, LSU 64
LSU led by six points at halftime.
SMU’s bench outscored LSU’s subs 21-4.

— Western Kentucky 81, Murray State 76
Murray State led by 8 with 6:42 to play.
6-2 senior McHenry scored 29 points for the Hilltoppers.
— Marquette, Troy, as well as Army/Navy, are only basketball teams in country who haven’t had a player transfer on or off their team this season.

Famous birthdays, December 15th:
Art Howe, 78
Charlie Scott, 76
Don Johnson, 75
Helen Slater, 61
David Wingate, 61
Mo Vaughn, 57
Rodney Harrison, 52
Jonathan India, 28

— Memphis 87, Clemson 82 OT
Clemson led 69-63 with 2:22 left in regulation.
Memphis led 10-0 early; they shot 12-25 on the arc.

— St Bonaventure 74, Providence 70
St Bonaventure had 19 offensive rebounds led 35-26 at the half.
Big win for 10-1 Bonnies, who’ve played schedule #284

— Texas A&M 70, Purdue 66
Aggies out-rebounded Purdue, 34-23; they had 14 offensive boards.
6-9 F Payne was 6-6 from floor, had 16 points in 24:00 off bench.

— DePaul 91, Wichita State 72
Last 4 years, DePaul was 33-72; they’re 8-2 this year.
DePaul is #70 in experience, #356 in continuity; lot of transfers.

— Random knowledge:
The minimum salary for an NBA rookie: $1,157, 153
Minimum salary for a 10-year NBA veteran: $3,303,771

— Navy 31, Army 13
Navy QB Horvath ran ball for 204 yards, threw for 107 more.
Navy outgained Army, 378-178
Only third time in last 20 years this game went over the total.

— NBA in-season tournament:
Bucks 110, Hawks 102
Milwaukee outscored the Hawks 28-19 in 4th quarter.
Bucks were 14-45 on the arc, 24-41 inside arc.
Giannis Antetokounmpo was 12-18 on the foul line.

Thunder 111, Rockets 96
Thunder outscored Houston 34-27 in third quarter.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 20 of his 32 points in the 2nd half.
Rockets shot 36.5% from the floor
Bucks-Thunder play in the championship game Tuesday night.

— South Alabama 30, Western Michigan 23
QB Davenport threw for 271 yards, in his 2nd start of the year.
Jeremiah Webb caught six passes for 182 yards.
Jaguars outgained Western Michigan, 537-317

Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)
Sun Belt 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS
MAC. 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Sunday, December 15

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 15

Sunday’s games
Ravens (-14.5) @ Giants
Ravens (8-5)
Baltimore split its last six games, after a 5-game win streak.
Baltimore is 8-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-5 if they score less than 28
Ravens are 5-5 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Ravens are 3-1 SU/0-4 ATS in last four post-bye games.
Team total: over 8-5
Opponents’ team total: over 9-4


Ravens are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite.
Over is 10-3 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 69-28 as an NFL starter.
Since 2018, Ravens are 8-5 ATS as a double digit favorite.
Over is 6-1 in Baltimore road games this season.
Ravens are 9-5 ATS last 14 games vs NFC opponents.
AFC North road favorites are 6-2 ATS in non-divisional games.


Giants (2-11)
Giants are 0-8 SU/1-7 ATS in last eight games.
Giants are 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS at home, scoring 10.1 points/game.
Giants haven’t had a positive turnover ratio in any games TY.
Team total: under 8-5
Opponents’ team total: over 6-1 last seven


Last eight games, Giants were outscored 104-32 in first half.
Under Daboll, Giants are 9-8-1 ATS as a home underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 15-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB DeVito is 3-4 as an NFL starter.
Under is 9-4 in their games this season.
Last three weeks, Giants gained 272.3 yards/game.
NFC East home teams are 5-12 ATS in non-divisional games.


Home team won last six series games.
Ravens lost their last three visits to the Garden State (vs Giants)
Under is 2-1-2 in last five meetings


Jets (-3.5) @ Jaguars
Jets (3-10)
Jets are 1-9 SU/2-8 ATS in last ten games.
Four of their last five losses were by 3-1-5-6 points.
Jets are 3-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 0-9 if they allow 23+.
Jets are 0-6 scoring less than 21 points.
Team total: under 6-3 last nine
Opponents’ team total: over 7-1 last eight


Jets are 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS on the road this season.
Jets are 2-9-1 ATS last 12 games as a road favorite.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Jets are 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS since their coaching change.
Last four games, Jets ran for only 85.8 yards/game.
Jets held last three opponents to 91-84-44 rushing yards.
AFC East road teams are 8-12 ATS in non-divisional games.


Jaguars (3-10)
Jaguars upset Tennessee LW, snapped a 5-game losing skid.
Jaguars covered six of their last seven games.
Jaguars have 15 turnovers in last nine games (minus-8)
Team total: under 8-5
Opponents’ team total: over 5-4 last nine


Jaguars are 7-3 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
Last six games, Jaguars were held to 69.3 rushing yards/game.
Jaguars are 1-10 if they score less than 32 points.
Jaguars are 1-9 if they give up 18+ points.
Backup QB Jones is 19-27 as an NFL starter.
Six of their last nine games went over the total.
AFC South underdogs are 8-12 ATS in non-divisional games.


Jaguars won three of last four games.
Jets are 1-4 SU/ATS in last five visits to Jacksonville.


Cowboys (-2.5) @ Panthers
Cowboys (5-8)
Dallas lost six of its last eight games.
Cowboys are 1-8 when they allow more than 20 points.
Last seven games, Cowboys gave up 27 TD’s on 88 drives.
Dallas is 1-5 ATS TY in games coming off a loss
Team total: under 7-3 last ten
Opponents’ team total: over 6-2 last eight


Dallas is 4-2 SU/3-3 ATS on road this season.
Cowboys are 11-5 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite.
Backup QB Rush is 7-4 as an NFL starter.
Cowboys converted only 21 of last 67 third down plays.
Over is 3-1 in last four Dallas games.
Dallas is minus-11 in turnovers in its losses, +5 in wins.
NFC East non-divisional favorites are 5-8 ATS


Panthers (3-9)
Carolina is 2-3 SU/5-0 ATS in its last five games.
Those five games were decided by total of 16 points.
Last two weeks, Panthers gave up 236-209 rushing yards.
QB Young is 4-20 as an NFL starter.
Team total: over 6-6-1
Opponents’ team total: over 8-5


Carolina is 4-5 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Panthers are 11-8-1 ATS last 20 games as a home underdog.
Carolina covered its last three home games.
Over is 9-4 in Carolina games this year.
Carolina is 0-9 when they give up more than 22 points..
Last four games, Panthers are +2 in turnovers.
NFC South home teams are 7-11 ATS in non-divisional games.


Dallas won eight of last ten series games.
Cowboys are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in last six visits to Charlotte
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.


Commanders (-7) @ Saints
Commanders (8-5)
Washington lost three of last four games, after a 7-2 start.
Commanders are 1-5 if they give up more than 22 points.
Rookie QB Daniels is 8-5 as an NFL starter.
Washington is 6-3 ATS last nine games on artificial turf.
Team total: over 10-3
Opponents’ team total: under 7-6
NFC East non-divisional favorites are 5-8 ATS in non-divisional games.


Washington allowed 26+ points in all five losses.
They’re 7-0 when they give up less than 26 points.
Washington was held under 300 TY in three of five losses.
Commanders are 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
Commanders are 1-6 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
Over is 8-3 in their last eleven games.


Saints (4-8)
New Orleans is 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS since their coaching change.
Saints blocked 35-yard FG on last play to preserve 14-11 win LW.
New Orleans is 2-8 when it scores less than 35 points.
Saints are 0-7 when they give up 20+ points.
Team total: under 5-2 last seven
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1 last four


Saints are 6-9 ATS last 15 games as a home underdog.
New Orleans is 10-15-2 ATS last 27 games coming off a win.
Saints are 2-4 in one-score games this year.
Saints QB Carr is out; #3 QB Haener could be making first NFL start.
If not, #4 QB Rattler is 0-3 as a starter this year.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
NFC South home underdogs are 4-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


These teams haven’t met since 2021.
Saints won last three meetings, scoring 33-43-34 points.
Commanders are 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS in last five visits to Bourbon Street
Over is 7-0 in last seven meetings.


Bengals (-5) @ Titans
Bengals (5-8)
Short week for Bengals after Monday’s win in Dallas.
Bengals lost three of last four games, giving up 34.3 ppg.
Bengals are 5-1 if they allow 24 or fewer points, 0-7 if they allow more than 24.
Over is 9-3 in their last dozen games.
Team total: over 8-5
Opponents’ team total: over 8-4-1


Bengals are 4-0 ATS as a road favorite TY.
Bengals are 11-5 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite.
Cincinnati
Bengals are 15-7-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win
Cincinnati is 2-7 SU in games decided by fewer than 7 points.
QB Burrow is 39-32-1 as an NFL starter.
AFC North road teams are 12-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Titans (3-8)
Titans coach Callahan was a Bengal assistant the last five years.
Tennessee is 2-7 SU/1-8 ATS in last nine games.
Titans scored 19 or fewer points in their losses; 31-20-32 points in wins.
Tennessee is minus-11 in turnovers, with 12 takeaways.
Team total: under 9-3-1
Opponents’ team total: over 6-4-3


Titans are 2-7 ATS as an underdog this season.
Tennessee is 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home underdog.
Tennessee has been outscored 180-103 in second half.
QB Levis is 5-14 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee is 2-7 ATS in last eight games coming off a loss.
AFC South underdogs are 8-14 ATS in non-divisional games.


Cincinnati won five of last seven series games.
Bengals are 3-2 SU/4-1-1 ATS in last five visits to Tennessee.
Under is 7-3 in last ten meetings.


Chiefs (-4.5) @ Browns
Chiefs (12-1)
Chiefs are 12-1, but they’re 0-7 ATS last seven games.
Kansas City has only one win this year by more than 10 points.
Chiefs are 11-22 ATS in last 33 games coming off a win.
Chiefs ran for less than 100 yards in four of last five games.
Team total: over 5-4 last seven
Opponents’ team total: over 5-2 last seven


Chiefs’ last four wins were by 2-3-2-2 points.
QB Mahomes is 102-26 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 8-11 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite.
Chiefs have only three takeaways in last seven games (minus-1).
Chiefs are 10-0 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Over is 3-0 in Chiefs’ last three road games.
AFC West favorites are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Browns (3-10)
Cleveland is 1-9 when they score less than 24 points.
Browns lost four of last five games, giving up 29.8 ppg
Browns are 2-4 SU/ATS at home this season.
Browns are minus-9 in turnovers the last seven games.
Team total: under 10-3
Opponents’ team total: over 8-5


Browns are 6-15-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss.
Browns are 7-4-1 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Last time was first time in 7 weeks the Browns ran ball for 100+ yards.
Cleveland allowed 20+ points in 11 of 13 games.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
AFC North underdogs are 7-6 ATS in non-divisional games.


Kansas City won last five series games (4-1 ATS)
Chiefs are 3-2 SU/ATS in last five visits to Cleveland.
Over is 7-4 in last 11 meetings.


Dolphins @ Texans (-3)
Dolphins (6-7)
Dolphins won four of last five games, after a 1-6 skid.
Miami is 1-6 when it gives up 20+ points, 5-1 if they allow less.
Miami scored 32 points LW, despite being 1-9 on 3rd down
Tagovailoa is 37-24 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 6-6-1
Opponents’ team total: over 8-5


Under McDaniel, Miami is 6-8 ATS as a road underdog.
In games 5-8, Dolphins ran ball for 170 yards/game.
Last four games, Miami ran ball for 59.4 yards/game.
Dolphins are 29-19 ATS in last 48 games coming off a win.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
AFC East road underdogs are 5-9 ATS in non-divisional games.


Texans (8-5)
Houston is 3-4 in last seven games, after a 5-1 start.
Texans have six wins by 6 or fewer points.
Texans are +13 in turnovers their last eight games.
Houston is 2-5 when it gives up more than 20 points.
Team total: under 7-5-1
Opponents’ team total: under 5-3-1 last nine


Texans lost last two home games, to Detroit/Houston.
Texans are 5-15 ATS last 20 games as a home favorite.
Houston is 7-11 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 18-12 as an NFL starter.
Texans are 6-4 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Houston is 3-3 SU/1-5 ATS in last six post-bye games.
AFC South favorites are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Home team won last five series games.
Dolphins are 0-5 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Houston.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Colts @ Broncos (-4)
Colts (6-7)
Indy lost 4 of last 6 games, are 1-4 ATS in last five games,
Colts are 3-6 giving up 20+ points.
Colts have played 11 games (t-5) decided by 8 or fewer points.
Team total: under 6-5-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-3 last eight


QB Richardson is 7-6 as an NFL starter.
Colts are 3-1-1 ATS as a road underdog this year.
Indy is 13-9-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog
Colts are 3-4 SU on road, with wins by 1-1-3 points.
Over is 3-1 in Colts last four games.
Colts are 5-1 SU/4-1-1 ATS in last six post-bye games.
AFC South road underdogs are 4-11 ATS in non-divisional games.


Broncos (8-5)
Broncos won last three games, scoring 38=29-41 points.
Denver is 7-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-5 if they score 20 or less.
Last six games, Broncos converted 42-83 third down plays.
Broncos are 1-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Team total: over 8-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 8-5


Favorites are 6-0 SU/ATS in Denver home games.
Denver is 10-12-1 ATS last 22 games as a home favorite (4-0 TY).
In wins, Broncos are +9 in turnovers; in losses, minus-6.
Denver is 11-3 ATS in last 14 post-bye games.
Seven of Broncos’ last nine games went over the total.
Last four games, Denver held opponents to 57-50-69-77 rushing yards.
AFC West home favorites are 8-3 ATS in non-divisional games.


Teams split their last six series games.
Colts spit their last six visits to Denver.
Under is 3-0 in last six series games.


Patriots @ Cardinals (-6)
Patriots (3-10)
Patriots lost four of their last five games, are 3-4 ATS on road.
Last three games, New England gave up 28-34-25 points.
Patriots are 1-10 when they allow more than 10 points.
Patriots are 1-7-1 ATS last nine games vs NFC opponents.
Team total: under 6-5-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-0 last three


NE is 11-22-1 ATS in last 34 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 32-49 SU since Tom Brady left town.
Patriots are 6-3 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
Rookie QB Maye is 2-6 as an NFL starter.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
AFC East road underdogs are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Cardinals (6-7)
Arizona is 0-3 since its bye, losing 16-6/23-22/30-18.
Cardinals are 18-13 ATS last 31 games coming off a loss.
In its six wins, Arizona outscored foes 77-30 in second half.
Team total: over 7-6
Opponents’ team total: under 8-5


LW, QB Murray threw two INTs on Arizona’s first three drives.
Cardinals were held under 300 TY in four of six losses.
Arizona is 4-3 SU/ATS at home this season.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Cardinals are 2-5 when the opponent runs for 100+ yards.
Arizona is 13-6 ATS last 19 games vs AFC opponents.


New England is 5-1 SU/ATS in last six meetings.
Patriots are 3-0 SU/ATS in last three visits to Arizona.
Under is 9-3 in last 12 series games.


Bills @ Lions (-2.5)
Bills (10-3)
Bills won seven of their last eight games (6-2 ATS)
Buffalo gave up 35-23-44 points in its losses (9-0 allow less than 23).
Buffalo outscored last seven opponents 154-74 in second half.
Last nine games, Bills are +12 in turnovers (17-5).
Team total: over 11-2
Opponents’ team total: under 8-5


Buffalo is 2-3-1 ATS in last six games as a road underdog.
Bills are 5-6 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
QB Allen is 78-38 as an NFL starter.
Last eight Buffalo games went over the total.
Buffalo is 6-7-1 ATS in last 14 games vs NFC opponents.
Bills are 10-0 when they give up less than 400 yards.
Bills are 18-6-1 ATS last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.


Lions (11-1)
Detroit won its last eleven games (8-3 ATS).
Last seven games, Lions outscored opponents 111-55 in 2nd half.
Detroit is 6-1 SU/4-3 ATS at home this season.
Opponents have converted only 32 of last 103 third down plays.
Team total: over 6-4 last ten
Opponents’ team total: under 8-5


Under Campbell, Lions are 13-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 13-6 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 20-11 ATS in games coming off a win.
Lions have outscored opponents 57-16 in last 2:00 of each half.
Lions are 14-4 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Goff is 82-55-1 as an NFL starter, 38-25-1 with Detroit.
Lions held 4 of last 5 opponents under 300 total yards.


Buffalo won last four series games, by 2-3-1-3 points.
Bills won two of last three visits to Detroit.
Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.


Buccaneers @ Chargers (-3)
Buccaneers (7-6)
Bucs are 3-0 since their bye, scoring 30-26-28 points.
Bucs are 2-4 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU/ATS on the road this year.
Bucs are 8-6 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 10-3
Opponents’ team total: over 8-5


Bucs are 4-3 ATS as an underdog this season.
Tampa Bay is 9-2 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
QB Mayfield is 49-54 as an NFL starter, 17-15 with Buccaneers.
Seven of Tampa Bay’s last ten games went over the total.
Bucs are 12-10-2 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Bucs turned ball over 14 times in last seven games (minus-4).
Tampa Bay is 6-7 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC opponents.


Chargers (8-5)
Chargers are 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS in last seven games.
LA is 3-5 scoring 23 or fewer points, 5-0 scoring 24+.
Last three games, Chargers ran ball for only 83-56-94 yards.
Last six games, Chargers are +5 in turnovers.
Team total: over 7-6
Opponents’ team total: under 8-4-1


Chargers are 4-0 ATS this season as home favorites.
Bolts are 12-8-3 ATS last 23 games vs NFC opponents.
Chargers are 3-0 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
QB Herbert is 38-38 as an NFL starter.
Over is 3-0 in their last three home games.
Chargers are 9-28-7 ATS last 44 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.


Tampa Bay is 3-0 SU/2-0-1 ATS in last three meetings.
Over is 4-0-1 in last five series games.


Steelers @ Eagles (-5.5)
Steelers (10-3)
Steelers won/covered seven of their last eight games.
Pittsburgh’s losses were by 3-3-5 points.
Last nine games, Steelers are +15 in turnovers.
Pittsburgh is 7-1 when it scores 20+ points.
Team total: over 6-2 last eight
Opponents’ team total: under 7-6


Steelers are 15-6-1 in its last 22 games coming off a win.
Pittsburgh is 10-4 ATS in last 14 games vs NFC opponents.
Last eight games, Pittsburgh outscored opponents 131-72 in 2nd half.
Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Wilson is 130-80-1 as an NFL QB, 6-1 with Pittsburgh.
Steelers are 24-12 ATS last 36 games as a road underdog.
AFC North underdogs are 5-3 ATS in non-divisional games.


Eagles (11-2)
Eagles are 9-0 SU/6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
Last four weeks, Eagles ran ball for 222.8 yards/game.
Eagles outscored last eight opponents 98-55 in first half.
Last two weeks, Philly threw for 112-83 yards; WR’s aren’t happy.
Team total: over 6-2 last eight
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3 last nine


Philly is 4-1 SU/1-4 ATS at home this season.
Last seven games, Eagles are +10 in turnovers.
QB Hurts is 47-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games vs AFC opponents.
Eagles are 6-4 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
NFC East home favorites are 4-6 ATS in non-divisional games.


Home team won last six series games.
Steelers are 0-3 SU/ATS in last three visits to Pittsburgh
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Packers (-3) @ Seahawks
Packers (9-4)
Packers won seven of last nine games (3-0 ATS last three).
Green Bay is 5-3 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Green Bay’s last four road tilts were decided by 1-3-5-3 points.
Team total: over 8-5
Opponents’ team total: under 9-3 last 12


GB is 3-11-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite (1-2 TY).
Packers are 8-9-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
Green Bay is 8-0 when they allow less than 24 points.
Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Green Bay is 16-14-1 ATS last 31 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Packers played last two Thursdays, had extra time to prep for this.

Seahawks (8-5)
Seahawks are 4-0 since their bye, giving up 17-6-21-18 points.
Seattle allowed 26+ points in losses, 21 or less in wins.
Seahawks are 15-21-2 ATS in last 38 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 9-4
Opponents’ team total: over 7-6


QB Smith is 38-42 as an NFL starter, 26-23 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 11-10-1 in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Seattle was held under 300 TY in four of last six games.
Under is 4-3 in their last seven games.
Seattle is 4-1 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Seahawks are minus-9 in turnovers in losses, +4 in wins.


Hime team won last nine series games.
Packers are 1-4 SU/1-2-2 ATS in last five visits to Seattle.
Over is 7-5 in last dozen meetings.

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 15​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
KC at CLE	01:00 PM	CLE +4.5 U 41.5	+500 +500
NYJ at JAC	01:00 PM	JAC +3.0 O 40.5	+500 +500
CIN at TEN	01:00 PM	TEN +6.0 U 46.0	+500 +500
MIA at HOU	01:00 PM	MIA +2.5 O 46.5	+500 +500
WAS at NO	01:00 PM	WAS -7.5 O 44.5	+500 +500
BAL at NYG	01:00 PM	NYG +17.0 O 42.5	+500 +500
DAL at CAR	01:00 PM	CAR -2.5 U 43.0	+500 +500
PIT at PHI	04:25 PM	PIT +5.5 O 43.0	+500 +500
IND at DEN	04:25 PM	IND +4.0 U 43.5	+500 +500
TB at LAC	04:25 PM	LAC -3.0 O 46.0	+500 +500
BUF at DET	04:25 PM	DET -2.5 U 54.0	+500 +500
NE at ARI	04:25 PM	ARI -6.0 U 46.0	+500 +500
GB at SEA	08:20 PM	GB -2.5 U 47.0	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL BEST BETS FOR DECEMBER !

12/15/2024.................5 - 12 - 0...................29.41%.......................- 36.00
12/12/2024...................1 - 1 - 0...................50.00%........................- 0.50
12/09/2024...................0 - 2 - 0...................00.00%........................- 11.00
12/08/2024...................9 - 8 - 0....................52.94%.........................+ 1.00
12/05/2024....................0 - 2 - 0....................00.00%....................- 11.00
12/02/2024....................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%....................+ 10.00
12/01/2024.....................3 - 7- 0.....................30.00%.....................- 23.50

TOTALS........................20 - 32 - 0.....................38.46%.................... - 71.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday’s 6-pack:
Some interesting spreads for Week 16:
— Broncos @ Chargers (-3)
— Texans (-2) @ Kansas City
— Steelers @ Baltimore (-6.5)
— Patriots @ Buffalo (-14)
— Rams (-3) @ Jets
— Eagles (-3.5) @ Washington

Quote of the Day
“I was trying to run up in the pocket, obviously 4th down, trying to make a play happen, and as I threw the ball, I kind of got hit — and I haven’t seen it — but it felt like someone hit me from behind as well. And so I kind of just got rolled up on. It kind of happens in football, and so I tried to bounce back up, but obviously, it hurt a little bit. But now we’ll just get after the rehab part of it and try to be ready for next week.”
Patrick Mahomes, describing his ankle injury

Monday’s quiz
25 years ago, the Rams won the Super Bowl for the first time, behind QB Kurt Warner, who was the backup during training camp. Who was the Rams’ starting QB that summer, before he blew his knee out in an exhibition game?

Sunday’s quiz
Dallas Cowboys won the first Super Bowl played in a domed stadium; they beat Denver 27-17 in the New Orleans Superdome.

Saturday’s quiz
Josh Harris owns the NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers and the NHL’s New Jersey Devils; he also owns the NFL’s Washington Commanders.

**********************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….​

Bills 48, Lions 42
Bills scored 30+ points for 8th game in a row.
Buffalo won eight of its last nine games (7-2 ATS)
Bills’ first three drives: 25 plays, 221 yards, 21 points.
Buffalo averaged 10.6 yards/pass attempt.
Bills are first team since 1966 to play consecutive games where both teams scored 40+ points.
Detroit’s 11-game win streak was snapped.
Goff threw for 494 yards and five TD’s.
St Brown caught 14 passes for 193 yards and a TD.
Lions are tied in loss column with Vikings atop NFC North.
Detroit-Minnesota play at Ford Field in Week 18.

Packers 30, Seahawks 13
Packers won eight of last ten games (4-0 ATS last four).
Green Bay outgained Seattle, 369-208.
Green Bay’s first four drives: 33 plays, 277 yards, 20 points.
Packers are 9-0 when they allow less than 24 points.
QB Smith hurt his knee, missed most of 2nd half (check status)
Seahawks/Rams are now tied atop NFC West (Rams won 1st meeting)
Seattle in 2nd half: 35 plays, 83 yards, 10 points.
Seattle allowed 26+ points in its losses, 21 or less in wins.

Ravens 35, Giants 14
QB Jackson threw 5 TD passes, 4 of them plays of 20+ yards.
Ravens averaged 9.8 yards/pass attempt.
Baltimore is 9-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-5 if they score less than 28.
Ravens are 12-6 ATS in last 18 games as a road favorite.
Ravens were 9-11 on third down, Giants 2-12.
Giants are 0-9 SU/1-8 ATS in last nine games.
Last nine games, Giants were outscored 125-39 in first half.
Giants are 0-8 SU/2-5-1 ATS at home, scoring 10.6 points/game.

Jets 32, Jaguars 25
Adams caught 9 passes for 198 yards, 2 TD’s, all in second half.
Jaguars led 13-7 at halftime.
Jets in second half: 38 plays, 330 yards, 25 points.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Jaguars are 1-6 SU/5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
Jaguars are 1-10 if they give up 18+ points.
Backup QB Jones is 19-28 as an NFL starter.
Seven of their last ten games went over the total.

Cowboys 30, Panthers 14
Dallas led this game 10-7 at halftime.
Cowboys’ first four drives in 2nd half: 27 plays, 176 yards, 20 points.
Cowboys are 5-0 when they allow 20 or fewer points.
Dallas is 12-5 ATS last 17 games as a road favorite.
Carolina drove 72 yards on its first drive, but lost a fumble.
Dallas outgained the Panthers, 410-235.
Over is 10-4 in Carolina games this year.
NFC South home teams are 8-12 ATS in non-divisional games.

Commanders 20, Saints 19
Down 20-13, Saints scored TD on last play of the game.
They went for 2 points and the win, but they failed.
Saints in first half: 20 plays, 28 yards, trailed 14-0 at half
Saints in second half: 33 plays, 237 yards, 19 points.
Washington’s first three drives: 30 plays, 125 yards, 14 points.
Commanders were 9-17 on third down, New Orleans 3-11
Saints sacked rookie QB Daniels eight times.
Commanders are 8-0 if they give up less than 26 points.

Bengals 37, Titans 27
Cincinnati converted 10-13 third down plays.
Bengals won their last two games, scoring 27-37 points.
Bengals are 5-0 ATS as a road favorite TY.
Over is 10-3 in their last thirteen games.
Titans turned ball over six times, had 12 penalties for 110 yards
Bengals turned ball over four times, had 14 penalties for 113 yards
Tennessee is 2-8 SU/1-9 ATS in last ten games.
Titans are 2-8 ATS as an underdog this season.

Famous birthdays, December 16:
Joyce Bulifant, 87
Jan van Breda Kolff, 73
Jeff Ruland, 66
Jerry Gray, 62
Benjamin Bratt, 61
Bill Ripken, 60
Alcides Escobar, 38
Bryan De La Cruz, 28

Chiefs 21, Browns 7
Mahomes sprained his ankle late in game (check status)
Chiefs are 13-1, but this was their first cover in eight games.
Cleveland turned ball over six times on 13 drives.
Kansas City led 14-0 at halftime.
Winston threw three INT’s, eventually got yanked.
Cleveland is 1-10 when they score less than 24 points.
Browns are 2-5 SU/ATS at home this season.
Browns are minus-15 in turnovers the last eight games.
Browns’ team total: under 11-3

Texans 20, Dolphins 12
Dolphins outgained Houston, 224-181.
Miami turned ball over on four of their last seven drives.
Miami is 1-7 when it gives up 20+ points, 5-1 if they allow less.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 6-9 ATS as a road underdog.
AFC East road underdogs are 6-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Houston won despite averaging only 3.5 yards/pass attempt.
Texans clinched AFC South when the Colts lost in Denver.
Texans are +16 in turnovers their last nine games.
Houston is 6-4 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 19-12 as an NFL starter.

Broncos 31, Colts 13
Colts led 13-7 early in 3rd quarter; RB Taylor ran for what appeared to be an easy TD, but he was too cool and dropped the ball on purpose, but before he was in the end zone. Not good.
Colts after that play: 32 plays, 96 yards, no points.
Indy lost 5 of last 7 games, are 1-5 ATS in last six games.
AFC South road underdogs are 4-12 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts turned ball over five times, Denver three times.
Broncos won despite being outgained 310-193.
Broncos won last four games, scoring 38-29-41-31 points.
Denver is 8-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-5 if they score 20 or less.

Cardinals 30, Patriots 17
Cardinals were 10-15 on third down, New England 0-6
Patriots lost five of their last six games, are 3-5 ATS on road.
Last four games, New England gave up 28-34-25-30 points.
NE is 11-23-1 ATS in last 35 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 32-50 SU since Tom Brady left town.
Arizona’s first five drives: 40 plays, 235 yards, 16 points.
Patriots’ first three drives: 13 plays, 40 yards, no points.
RB Conner ran for 110 yards, two TD’s.
Arizona is 14-6 ATS last 20 games vs AFC opponents.
Cardinals snapped a three-game losing skid.

Buccaneers 40, Chargers 17
Buccaneers outscored Chargers 27-0 in second half.
Chargers in second half: 23 plays, 82 yards, no points.
Tampa Bay is 4-0 since its bye, scoring 30-26-28-40 points.
WR Evans caught nine passes for 159 yards, two TD’s.
Tampa Bay is 10-2 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Buccaneers’ team total: over 11-3
Tampa Bay outgained the Chargers, 506-206.
Buccaneers were 9-15 on third down, Bolts 0-6.
Chargers only ran the ball 11 times, for 32 yards.
Chargers are 9-29-7 ATS last 45 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Eagles 27, Steelers 13
Eagles are 10-0 SU/7-3 ATS in their last ten games.
Philly outgained the Steelers, 401-163.
Philly outscored the Steelers 10-0 in second half.
Steelers lost for only second time in their last nine games.
Eagles went out of their way to pad their WR’s stats:
Brown caught eight passes for 110 yards, Brown nine for 109.
Eagles were 10-17 on third down, Pittsburgh 3-10.
Philly is 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
Eagles are 7-4 ATS in last eleven games coming off a win.

Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)

Sun Belt 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS

MAC. 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS

Favorites: 1-0 ATS

Totals: under 1-0

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Thursday, December 12

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 15

Monday’s games
Bears @ Vikings (-7)
Bears (4-9)
Bears lost last seven games, four of then by 3 or fewer points.
Bears are on road for the third week in a row.
Chicago were outgained 452-162 in first game without Eberflus.
Bears scored 24+ points in their wins (0-8 score less than 24)
Team total: under 7-5-1
Opponents’ team total: under 9-4


Bears are 8-14-1 ATS last 23 games as a road underdog.
Chicago is 13-15-2 ATS in last 30 games coming off a loss.
Bears ran ball for less than 80 yards in five of last six games.
Last seven games, Bears are 0-7 despite being +4 in turnovers.
Chicago is 3-1 ATS in last four NFC North road games.
Bears are 0-7 when they allow 19+ points.


Vikings (11-2)
Minnesota won last six games, scoring 31.7 ppg in last three.
Vikings allowed 31-30 points in their two losses.
Under is 9-4-1 in Minnesota’s last 14 home games.
Vikings are 7-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Team total: over 8-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 7-6


Minnesota is 9-17 ATS in last 26 games as home favorite.
Minnesota has 26 takeaways in 12 games (+7 turnovers).
Minnesota gave up 391/386 TY in its two losses.
Vikings are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS at home this season.
QB Darnold is 31-37 as an NFL starter, 10-2 with Vikings.
Vikings are 12-4-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Vikings are 1-6 ATS in last seven NFC North home games.


Vikings (-2.5) won 30-27 in OT at Chicago three weeks ago.
Bears threw for 320 yards in that game.
Vikings won seven of last eight series games.
Bears are 4-2 SU/ATS in last six visits to Minnesota.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Falcons (-4) @ Raiders
Falcons (6-7)
Atlanta is 0-4 SU/ATS last four games, after a 6-3 start.
Last three games, Falcons gave up 32.3 ppg.
Falcons were held to 21 or fewer points in all seven losses.
Atlanta scored 22= points in all of its wins.
Team total: under 5-2 last seven
Opponents’ team total: over 6-3-1 last ten


Atlanta is 6-5 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
Falcons are 8-15-1 ATS last 24 games as a favorite overall.
Falcons are 9-14-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
QB Cousins is 82-78-2 as an NFL starter.
Five of Falcons’ last seven games stayed under the total.
NFC South underdogs are 11-13 ATS in non-divisional games.


Raiders (2-11)
#3 QB Ridder gets his first start for the Raiders here.
Ridder was 8-9 as a starter for Atlanta the last two years.
Raiders are 0-9 SU/3-6 ATS in last nine games.
Raiders have 25 turnovers in 13 games (minus-17).
Team total: over 8-5
Opponents’ team total: over 9-4


Raiders are 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS at home this season.
Raiders held four of last six opponents under 100 rushing yards.
QB Ridder is 8-9 as an NFL starter, with Atlanta.
Over is 8-4 in their last 12 games.
Raiders are 7-10-1 ATS last 18 games vs NFC teams.
Las Vegas is 18-23-1 ATS in last 42 games coming off a loss.
AFC West underdogs are 6-9 ATS in non-divisional games.


Atlanta is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in last five series games.
Falcons thrashed Raiders 43-6 in last meeting, in 2020.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 16​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
CHI at MIN	08:00 PM	MIN -7.0 U 43.5	+500 +500
ATL at LV	08:30 PM	LV +5.5 U 44.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL BEST BETS FOR DECEMBER !

12/16/2024................. 3 - 1 - 0....................75.00%.......................+ 9.50
12/15/2024.................5 - 12 - 0...................29.41%.......................- 36.00
12/12/2024...................1 - 1 - 0...................50.00%........................- 0.50
12/09/2024...................0 - 2 - 0...................00.00%........................- 11.00
12/08/2024...................9 - 8 - 0....................52.94%.........................+ 1.00
12/05/2024....................0 - 2 - 0....................00.00%....................- 11.00
12/02/2024....................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%....................+ 10.00
12/01/2024.....................3 - 7- 0.....................30.00%.....................- 23.50

TOTALS........................23 - 33 - 0.....................41.07%.................... - 61.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Some interesting spreads for Week 16:
— Lions (-7) @ Chicago
— Vikings (-2.5) @ Seattle
— Patriots @ Buffalo (-13.5)
— Jaguars @ Las Vegas (-1)
— 49ers @ Miami (-1.5)
— Buccaneers (-4) @ Dallas

Quote of the Day
“We got problems in college football…….the way the portal is and the timing of it and the way our team is playing, and when you play the position of quarterback and there’s only one spot and those spots are filling up, he felt like he was put in a no-win situation, and I agree with him.”
Penn State football coach James Franklin, talking about backup QB Beau Pribula entering the transfer portal

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder, who has scored the most points?
(Hint: They started playing in Oklahoma in 2008-09)

Monday’s quiz
25 years ago, the Rams won the Super Bowl for the first time, behind QB Kurt Warner, who was the backup during training camp. Trent Green was the Rams’ starting QB that summer, before he blew his knee out in an exhibition game.

Sunday’s quiz
Dallas Cowboys won the first Super Bowl played in a domed stadium; they beat Denver 27-17 in the New Orleans Superdome.

******************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….​

Vikings 30, Bears 12
Chicago in first half: 28 plays, 107 yards, trailed 13-0.
Bears are 0-8 SU/2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
Bears are 8-15-1 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
Bears scored 24+ points in their wins (0-9 score less than 24)
Vikings’ first four drives: 37 plays, 175 yards, only 13 points.
Minnesota was 7-14 on third down, Chicago 1-12.
Minnesota won last seven games, scoring 31.3 ppg in last four.
Vikings are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS at home this season.

Falcons 15, Raiders 9
Falcons snap a four-game losing skid.
Atlanta blocked a punt and an extra point.
Atlanta is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite.
Six of Falcons’ last eight games stayed under the total.
Raiders are 0-10 SU/3-7 ATS in last ten games.
Raiders are 2-11 SU, need three more losses to clinch #1 pick in ’25 Draft.
Falcons ran ball 37 times for 168 yards.
Las Vegas has 28 turnovers in 14 games (minus-19).

— Wake Forest football coach Dave Clawson has resigned, bad news for college football and college sports in general.
Clawson was 67-69 at Wake Forest, 5-2 in bowl games; Wake is the smallest of the Power 5 football schools. Clawson will stay at Wake Forest and work as a fundraiser, which these days is really important, since the players are getting paid (legally) now.
Clawson led Wake Forest to seven consecutive bowl games and had the Deacons in the top 10 in 2021/2022, the highest they’ve ever been ranked, but when QB Sam Hartman bolted Wake Forest for Notre Dame’s big $$$, the Deacons went 4-8/4-8 the last two years.

— Quarterback coming/goings:
Former Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold bolted from the Sooners to Auburn
Former USC QB Miller Moss bolted from USC to Louisville.
Former Texas/Duke QB Maalik Murphy is in the transfer portal. Again.
Murphy threw for a school-record 26 TD passes in leading Duke to a 9-3 record, but he’s quit on his teammates before their bowl game.
Duke will replace Murphy with former Tulane QB Darian Mensah.
Oy.

— Former NFL QB Teddy Bridgewater won a state championship in his first season as coach at his alma mater, Miami Northwestern High- he led the Bulls to the Florida Class 3A state title with a 41-0 win Saturday.
Bridgewater was a backup QB for the Lions last year; now he has joined the growing list of former NFL Players who have become high school coaches- Carson Palmer is on that list now, also.

— Marshall dropped out of their Independence Bowl game against Army in Shreveport, because a bunch of Marshall players entered the transfer portal after Thundering Herd coach Charles Huff bolted to Southern Mississippi.
Louisiana Tech will now play Army in the December 28th game.

Famous birthdays, December 17th:
Eugene Levy, 78
Bill Pullman, 71
Albert King, 65
Claire Forlani, 53
Chase Utley, 46
Daniel Vogelbach, 32
Buddy Hield, 32
Ryan Weathers, 25
Caden Dana, 21

— Was watching the Gonzaga-UConn game Saturday night that was played in Madison Square Garden; Jason Benetti mentioned that this week was the 46th anniversary of Billy Joel’s first concert at MSG. He’s now done 100 concerts at MSG.

— Tampa Bay Bucs WR Mike Evans had a big game against the Chargers Sunday; back when he was in high school in Galveston HS, the other receiver on the school’s football team was Nick Williams, who wound up playing five years in the major leagues as an outfielder.
Must’ve been fun coaching a team with two big league athletes playing receiver.

— SEC has 8 of the 25 teams in this week’s AP Top 25 basketball poll.

— Cal-Davis is bolting the Big West for the Mountain West in 2026, in all sports but football.
UTEP< Hawai’i, Grand Canyon and Cal-Davis are the four new teams in the league; Grand Canyon doesn’t have a football team- the Cal-Davis football team will stay at the I-AA level.

— When Colts RB Jonathan Taylor dropped the ball before he got to the goal line in Denver Sunday, it rolled out of the end zone for a Broncos touchback. Not only did the Colts get outscored 24-0 the rest of the way, you wonder how many people won/lost their fantasy league playoff games because of that blunder.

— It must be fun to be really, really rich; Phoenix Suns minority owner Justin Ishbia, and the brother of Suns majority owner Mat Ishbia, is interested in buying the Minnesota Twins, who are said to be worth $1.5B and $2B. Justin Ishbia has a net worth of $5B.

— A’s will be playing in Sacramento the next three years; they added another starting pitcher last week, acquiring Jeffrey Springs from Tampa Bay. He was 9-5, 2.46 in 25 starts in 2022, then was off to a great start in ’23, before he got hurt and missed a year.
With Springs and Luis Severino in the rotation, the A’s figure to be improved in 2025.

— Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)
Sun Belt 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS
MAC. 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS

Favorites: 1-0 ATS
Totals: under 1-0

 

[Udog]

WEEK 16

Thursday, December 19

Saturday, December 21

Sunday, December 22

Monday, December 23

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 16

 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 16

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Trend Report
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Denver vs LA Chargers
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Chargers's last 11 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games at home

Houston vs Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Houston

Pittsburgh vs Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Cleveland vs Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Cleveland's last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Detroit vs Chicago
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Chicago is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Chicago is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home

NY Giants vs Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants

New England vs Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Buffalo is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

Arizona vs Carolina
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games at home
Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona

Tennessee vs Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Tennessee

LA Rams vs NY Jets
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing LA Rams

Philadelphia vs Washington
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

Minnesota vs Seattle
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota

Jacksonville vs Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

San Francisco vs Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Miami
San Francisco is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing San Francisco

Tampa Bay vs Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay

New Orleans vs Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
College hoop teams shooting the best on the foul line:
84.8%— Wisconsin
83.8%— Cal-Irvine
82.4%— Tex-San Antonio
82.2%— Valparaiso
81.5%— Canisius
81.3%— Campbell

Quote of the Day
“He’s got to play better. We have to find a way to get him to play better. We have to play better at the quarterback position.”
Falcons coach Raheem Morris, before he benched Kirk Cousins Tuesday

Wednesday’s quiz
Which NFL team drafted Kirk Cousins in 2012?

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook has scored the most points.

Monday’s quiz
25 years ago, the Rams won the Super Bowl for the first time, behind QB Kurt Warner, who was the backup during training camp. Trent Green was the Rams’ starting QB that summer, before he blew his knee out in an exhibition game.

***************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……​

— NFL teams who get the highest %age of their first downs on 3rd down plays:
33.3%- Chiefs
30.4%- Dolphins
29.4%- Broncos
28.8%- Eagles
28.5%- Steelers

— NFL teams who get the lowest %age of their first downs on 3rd down plays:
20.6%- Packers
22.0%- Browns
22.0%- Falcons
22.9%- Lions
23.1%- Vikings

— NFL screwed around with the Week 17 (next week) schedule, moving some games:
Saturday December 28:
Chargers @ Patriots, 1:00
Broncos @ Bengals, 4:00
Cardinals @ Rams, 8:00
Sunday, December 29:
Falcons @ Commanders, 8:20

— Minnesota Vikings are 12-2, having a great year; are they really going to let QB Sam Darnold walk next spring? The franchise tag for a QB figures to be around $41M next year, which would be a crimp in Minnesota’s salary cap, but quarterbacks are really important, and Darnold is leading a 12-2 team this season.
Rookie JJ McCarthy hasn’t played yet; he’s already had two knee procedures. Will Minnesota really let Darnold walk and let McCarthy take over, with Giants’ reject Daniel Jones as the #2 quarterback? Tough decision they’ll have to face after the season.

— Falcons are benching QB Kirk Cousins, will start rookie Michael Penix this week against the Giants, giving the rookie QB his first NFL start.
Tennessee Titans are benching QB Will Levis; Mason Rudolph is the likely starter- Trevor Siemian is their other QB. Rudolph has a 9-6-1 record as an NFL starter, mostly with Pittsburgh.
Cleveland Browns are benching QB Jameis Winston, will start #3 QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson against Cincinnati. Bailey Zappe is Cleveland’s other QB. Thompson-Robinson was 1-2 as a starter for Cleveland last year.

— Memphis 42, West Virginia 37
Tigers led 28-17 at halftime.
West Virginia outgained Memphis, 534-474
Mountaineers ran ball for 206 yards, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
Memphis threw an 89-yard pass that wasn’t a TD; it was the longest pass play in the country this year that didn’t result in a touchdown.

— Ohio U is playing Jacksonville State in a bowl game in Orlando Friday; both teams have had really good years, so good that both head coaches have already bolted to greener pa$ture$.

Famous birthdays, December 18th:
Steven Spielberg, 78
Bobby Jones, 73 (basketball player)
Roy Howell, 71
Brad Pitt, 61
Charles Oakley, 61
Don Beebe, 60
Dan McGwire, 57
Byron Buxton, 31
Ronald Acuna, 27
Jayden Daniels, 24

— Chicago Cubs traded OF/1B Cody Bellinger to New York Tuesday, in exchange for P Cody Poteet- the Cubs are dumping most of Bellinger’s salary. Chicago will send $5M to New York as part of the deal, but Bellinger is going to make $52.5M the next two years, so the Cubs dump $47.5M in salary.
Bellinger hit 18 homers LY with a .751 OPS; his numbers figure to go up with the short right field fence in the Bronx.

— Baltimore Orioles signed P Tomoyuki Sugano to one-year, $13M deal; the 35-year old Sugano had a 1.67 ERA in 24 starts LY in Japan, but had only 111 strikeouts in 156.2 IP. Sugano has spent his entire 12-year pro career with the Yomiuri Giants.

— Bucks 97, Thunder 81
Milwaukee wins the NBA Cup championship; not sure what that means.
Lakers won its last year; they fired their coach after the season.
Bucks have won 11 of their last 13 games.

— WCC (Gonzaga’s league) is ranked #7 this year; this is the highest the league has been ranked in the last 25 years, partly because having Washington State/Oregon State for this year only has provided a boost.
Oregon State is 12-6, ranked #65; Wazzu is 11-7, ranked #72; they give the WCC more depth than it has had in quite a while.
Of course, Gonzaga is off to the Mountain West in a couple years, and Coogs/Beavers will be back in the Pac-12 then, so the WCC has darker days ahead.

— Florida 90, North Carolina 83
11-0 Gators outscored Carolina 13-3 over the final 4:03
Tar Heels were only 5-28 behind the arc.
SEC is 28-3 against the ACC this year, which is pretty amazing.

— South Carolina 91, Clemson 88 OT
Gamecocks led by 14 in first half; they shot 56% inside the arc.
Clemson led 69-67 with 5:09 left in the game.
Carolina has won five games in a row, after a 3-3 start.

— Drake 73, Kansas State 70 OT
Drake was up 29-9 in first half of this game.
K-State was up by a hoop with 1:19 left to play.
Drake is 10-0, with four starters who were playing D-2 ball last season.

— Dayton 66, UNLV 65
UNLV led 62-58 with 1:25 left in the game.
Dayton shot 63.3% inside the arc.

— Cal-San Diego 75, Utah State 73
Tritons of Big West have won eight in a row, are 10-2.
Cal-San Diego shot 70% inside arc; they were 23-27 on foul line.

— Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)
AAC 1-0 SU/0-1 ATS
Big X 0-1 SU/1-0 ATS
MAC. 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
Sun Belt 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS

Favorites: 1-1 ATS
Totals: under 1-1

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
Most TD passes thrown for the Buffalo Bills:
237— Jim Kelly
192— Josh Allen
181— Joe Ferguson
80— Ryan Fitzpatrick
77— Jack Kemp
55— Drew Bledsoe

Quote of the Day
“I mean, you really want to get me going today. Yeah, I think to be honest with you, I think that’s complete and total bullshit if you want my honest opinion. These guys are tough (bleep)ers, man, they go after it every day……I can’t even wrap my mind around how that would even be a conversation. I mean, just because we don’t win games doesn’t mean we’re soft.”
Titans coach Brian Callahan

Thursday’s quiz
Which two starting QB’s in the NFL have fathers who played major league baseball?

Wednesday’s quiz
Washington Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft.

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook has scored the most points.

********************************************

Thursday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….​

— James Madison 27, Western Kentucky 17
Dukes get their first-ever I-A bowl win.
Hilltoppers led 14-7 at halftime.
JMU ran ball for 212 yards, outgained WKU 394-318

— UNLV 24, California 13
Rebels get their first bowl win since 2000.
UNLV won despite completing only 6-19 passes.
Cal’s QB bolted; they used two backups in this game.

— Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)

AAC 1-0 SU/0-1 ATS

ACC 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS

Big X 0-1 SU/1-0 ATS

C-USA 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS

MAC 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS

MWest 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS

Sun Belt 2-0 SU/2-0 ATS

Favorites: 2-2 ATS
Totals: under 3-1

— UConn 94, Xavier 89 OT
Xavier shot 13-24 on arc; they led by 5 with 5:16 left.
UConn shot 55.6% inside the arc.

— Oklahoma 87, Michigan 86
11-0 Sooners were down 11 with 9:55 left to play.
Oklahoma was 12-25 on arc, Wolverines 4-28

— Memphis 64, Virginia 62
Virginia led by 11 early in second half.
PJ Haggerty played all 40:00, scored 27 points for 9-2 Memphis

— New Mexico 78, VCU 71
Donovan Dent scored 40 points for the Lobos.
VCU was only 13-24 on the foul line.

— Atlanta Falcons added kicker Riley Patterson to replace Younghoe Koo, who is on IR and is done for the regular season.

— As we speak, the Chicago White Sox win total for 2025 in 49.5, the lowest in recent memory. Last year, the A’s were supposed to suck; their win total was 57.5. White Sox were 41-121, an incredibly terrible season. The 2024 A’s wound up 69-93, by the way.

— Famous birthdays, December 19:
Tim Reid, 80
Kevin McHale, 67
Bill Wegman, 62
Jennifer Beals, 61
Arvydas Sabonis, 60
Joe Slusarski, 58
Tom Gugliotta, 55
Alyssa Milano, 52
Warren Sapp, 52
Jake Plummer, 50

— When the Carolina Panthers were favored over the Cowboys Sunday, it was the first time in 34 games that the Panthers were favored to win. It didn’t go well.

— Former NFL QB Michael Vick is the new football coach at Norfolk State, which went 3-8/4-8 the last two years at the I-AA level.
Vick is 44 years old; he last played in the NFL in 2015 for Pittsburgh. He has no formal coaching experience, but he played QB in the NFL for 13 years and was a coaching intern for the Chiefs five years ago. He’ll need to hire experienced assistant coaches.

— Quarterback TJ Finley should write a book someday; he recently transferred to Tulane, which will be his fifth college team. He’’ll be 23 in March.
2020— started five games for LSU (2-3)
2021-22— started six games for Auburn (2-4)
2023— started the whole season at Texas State (8-5)
2024— started three games for Western Kentucky (2-1)
2025— Tulane.

— Wake Forest hired former Washington State coach Jake Dickert as its new football coach; he replaces Dave Clawson, who is a really good coach, but Wake Forest doesn’t have the resources that its competitors have, so Clawson resigned.
Dickert was 23-20 in three years at Wazzu, 8-4 this season. Washington State wasn’t in a league this year; they’ll eventually be in the re-configured Pac-12 with a lot of Mountain West teams.

— Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia was granted eligibility for the 2025 season, very good news for the Commodores; he’s been arguing that junior college seasons should not count against NCAA eligibility, which could open up a whole new can of worms.

— Modern college football: Alabama poached the long snapper from the Cal Bears.

— In his excellent career, NBA star James Harden has scored 40+ points in 103 games.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Thursday, December 19

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 16

Sunday’s games
Rams (-3) @ Jets
Rams (8-6)
Rams won seven of their last nine games, after a 1-4 start.
Rams are 5-0 scoring 26+ points, 3-6 scoring less than 26.
11 of their 14 games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
Rams won/covered their last four road games.
Team total: under 9-5
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3-1 last ten


Rams won/covered their last four road games.
Favorites are 6-1 ATS in their road games.
Last nine games, Rams are +6 in turnovers.
Rams are 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
LA is 6-10-1 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 3-1 in their last four road games.
Rams are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games vs AFC teams.
NFC West road favorites are 5-6 ATS in non-divisional games.


Jets (4-10)
Jets are 2-9 SU/3-8 ATS in last 11 games.
Four of their last five losses were by 3-1-5-6 points.
Jets are 3-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 1-9 if they allow 23+.
Jets are 0-6 scoring less than 21 points.
Team total: under 6-4 last ten
Opponents’ team total: over 8-1 last nine


Jets are 2-4 SU/ATS at home this season.
Jets are 9-14 ATS last 23 games as a home underdog.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Jets are 2-7 SU/3-6 ATS since their coaching change.
Last five games, Jets allowed 28.4 points/game.
AFC East underdogs are 12-16 ATS in non-divisional games.


Jets won three of last four series games.
Jets (+17) won last meeting 23-20, four years ago.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Eagles (-3.5) @ Commanders
Eagles (12-2)
Eagles are 10-0 SU/7-3 ATS in their last ten games.
Last four weeks, Eagles ran ball for 204.4 yards/game.
Eagles outscored last nine opponents 115-68 in first half.
LW, Philly had two WR’s with 100+ receiving yards.
Team total: over 7-2 last nine
Opponents’ team total: under 7-3 last ten


Philly is 6-1 SU/ATS in true road games this year.
Last eight games, Eagles are +9 in turnovers.
QB Hurts is 48-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 4-3-1 ATS in last eight NFC East road games.
Eagles are 7-4 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
Under is 5-1 in their last six games.
Eagles held 8 of last 10 opponents under 300 TY.


Commanders (9-5)
Washington won last two games 42-19/20-19, after an 0-3 skid.
Commanders are 1-5 if they give up more than 22 points.
Rookie QB Daniels is 9-5 as an NFL starter.
Washington held last three opponents to 65 rushing yards/game.
Team total: over 10-4
Opponents’ team total: under 8-6


Washington allowed 26+ points in all five losses.
Commanders are 5-2 SU/ATS at home this season.
Washington was held under 300 TY in three of five losses.
Commanders are 4-8-2 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog.
Commanders are 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 NFC East home games.
Over is 3-0 in their last three home games.


Eagles (-4.5) beat Washington 26-18 at home in Week 11.
Philly ran for 228 yards, outgained Commanders 434-264
Eagles won six of last seven series games.
Philly is 6-1 SU/4-2-1 ATS in last seven visits here.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Giants @ Falcons (-8.5)
Giants (2-12)
Giants are 0-9 SU/1-8 ATS in last nine games.
Giants are 2-4 SU/ATS on road this year.
Giants haven’t had a positive turnover ratio in any games TY.
Team total: under 8-6
Opponents’ team total: over 7-1 last eight


Last nine games, Giants were outscored 125-39 in first half.
Under Daboll, Giants are 11-9 ATS as a road underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 15-13-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB Lock is 9-16 as an NFL starter.
Under is 9-5 in their games this season.
Last four weeks, Giants gained 263.3 yards/game.
NFC East road underdogs are 10-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Falcons (7-7)
Rookie QB Penix gets his first NFL start here.
Atlanta is 1-4 SU/ATS last five games, after a 6-3 start.
Falcons were held to 21 or fewer points in all seven losses.
Atlanta scored 22= points in six of its seven wins.
Team total: under 6-2 last eight
Opponents’ team total: over 6-4-1 last 11


Atlanta is 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS at home this year.
Falcons are 6-18-1 ATS last 25 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
Last six games, Atlanta is minus-7 in turnovers
Six of Falcons’ last eight games stayed under the total.
NFC South home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Falcons won last three meetings, by 3-3-4 points.
Giants lost 23-20/34-0 in last two visits to Atlanta.
Under is 6-0 in last six series games.


Cardinals (-5) @ Panthers
Cardinals (7-7)
Cardinals are 2-4 SU on road; both wins were by one point.
Arizona is 1-3 since its bye; they lost three of last four on road.
Arizona is 6-1 scoring 24+ points, 1-6 scoring less than 24.
In its seven wins, Arizona outscored foes 94-44 in second half.
Team total: over 8-6
Opponents’ team total: under 9-5


Last three years, Arizona is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Last three weeks, Cardinals gained average of 385.7 yards/game.
Arizona is 3-1 in games decided by 5 or fewer points.
Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Cardinals held four of last six opponents under 300 total yards.
NFC West favorites are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Panthers (3-11)
Carolina lost its last four games, is 5-1 ATS in last six.
Five of their last six games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Last three weeks, Panthers gave up 236-209-211 rushing yards.
QB Young is 4-21 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 7-6-1
Opponents’ team total: over 9-5


Carolina is 4-6 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Panthers are 11-8-1 ATS last 20 games as a home underdog.
Carolina is 3-1 ATS in its last four home games.
Over is 10-4 in Carolina games this year.
Carolina is 0-10 when they give up more than 22 points..
NFC South home underdogs are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Panthers won four of last five series games.
Cardinals are 2-5 SU/2-4-1 ATS in last seven visits to Charlotte
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Browns @ Bengals (-7.5)
Browns (3-11)
#3 QB Thompson-Robinson gets his first start TY
Thompson-Robinson is 1-2 as an NFL starter (starts were LY)
Cleveland is 1-10 when they score less than 24 points.
Browns lost five of last six games, giving up 28.3 ppg
Team total: under 11-3
Opponents’ team total: over 8-6


Browns are 6-16-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a loss.
Browns are 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS on road this season.
Browns are 11-18-1 in last 30 games as a road underdog.
Cleveland allowed 20+ points in 12 of 14 games.
Browns are minus-11 in turnovers the last four games.
Browns are 4-12 ATS in last 16 AFC North road games.


Bengals (6-8)
Bengals won last two games, scoring 27-37 points, after a 1-4 skid.
Last six games, Bengals scored 34 ppg, but went 3-3
Bengals are 5-1 if they allow 24 or fewer points, 1-7 if they allow more than 24.
Over is 10-3 in their last thirteen games.
Team total: over 9-5
Opponents’ team total: over 9-4-1


Bengals are 1-5 SU/ATS at home this season.
Bengals are 10-7-2 ATS last 19 games as a home fave (1-4 TY).
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in last five AFC North home games.
Bengals are 16-7-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win
Four of their six wins are by 10+ points.
QB Burrow is 40-32-1 as an NFL starter.


Bengals (-5.5) won 21-14 in Cleveland in Week 5.
Browns outgained Cincinnati 336-233, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
Under is 3-1-1 in last five meetings.


Titans @ Colts (-3.5)
Titans (3-11)
Titans will start backup QB Rudolph this week.
He is 9-6-1 as an NFL starter, mostly with Pittsburgh
Titans lost three in row, five of last six games.
Tennessee is 2-8 SU/1-9 ATS in last ten games.
Team total: under 9-4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 7-4-3


Titans are 2-8 ATS as an underdog this season.
Tennessee is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
Tennessee has been outscored 193-116 in second half.
Six of their last seven losses were by 10+ points.
Tennessee is minus-13 in turnovers, with 16 takeaways.
Tennessee is 2-8 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.
Titans are 10-6 ATS in last 16 AFC South road games.


Colts (6-8)
Indy lost 5 of last 7 games, are 1-5 ATS in last six games,
Colts don’t have a win by more than six points.
Colts are 3-7 when they give up 20+ points.
Colts have played 11 games (6-5) decided by 8 or fewer points.
Team total: under 6-6-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-4 last nine


QB Richardson is 7-7 as an NFL starter.
Colts are 4-1 ATS last five games as a home favorite (2-0 TY)
Indy is 12-13 ATS in last 25 games coning off a loss.
Over is 4-1 in Colts last five games.
Colts are 4-2 if they score more than 20 points, 2-6 if they don’t.
Indy is 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 AFC South home games.


Colts (+2.5) won 20-17 at Tennessee in Week 6.
Indy outscored Titans 10-0 in 4th quarter of the game.
Colts won/covered last three series games.
Colts are 4-2 SU/ATS in last six visits to Nashville.
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.


Lions (-6.5) @ Bears
Lions (12-2)
Detroit won 11 of its last 12 games (8-4 ATS).
Last two games, Lions gave up 31-48 points.
Lions gave up 10.6 yards/pass attempt last week.
Detroit is 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS on road this season.
Team total: over 7-4 last eleven
Opponents’ team total: under 8-6


Under Campbell, Lions are 8-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 7-1 ATS in NFC North road games.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 10-4 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Lions have outscored opponents 64-16 in last 2:00 of each half.
QB Goff is 82-56-1 as an NFL starter, 38-26-1 with Detroit.
This is only 2nd outdoor game for Detroit TY (W24-14 at Lambeau Week 9)


Bears (4-10)
Bears are 0-8 SU/2-6 ATS in last eight games.
Bears are 3-3 SU/4-2 ATS at home this year.
Chicago was outscored 68-25 in two games without Eberflus.
Bears scored 24+ points in their wins (0-9 score less than 24)
Team total: under 8-5-1
Opponents’ team total: under 9-5


Bears are 7-5 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Chicago is 13-16-2 ATS in last 31 games coming off a loss.
Last four weeks, Bears ran ball for 84.3 yards/game.
Last seven games, Bears are 0-8, despite being +4 in turnovers.
Chicago is 3-11 ATS in last 14 NFC North home games.
Bears are 0-9 when they allow 19+ points.


Bears (+10) lost 23-20 in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.
Detroit won four of last five series games.
Lions are 2-4 SU/ATS in last six visits to Chicago.
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.


Vikings (-3) @ Seahawks
Vikings (12-2)
Minnesota won last seven games, scoring 31.3 ppg in last four.
Vikings allowed 31-30 points in their two losses.
Minnesota is 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS on road this season.
Vikings are 7-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Team total: over 9-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 8-6


Short week for Vikings after their home win Monday night.
Under O’Connell, Minnesota is 9-2-2-ATS as a road favorite.
Minnesota has 27 takeaways in 13 games (+7 turnovers).
Minnesota gave up 391/386 TY in its two losses.
QB Darnold is 32-37 as an NFL starter, 11-2 with Vikings.
Vikings are 13-4-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
Last three games, Vikings are +4 in turnovers.


Seahawks (8-5)
Seahawks are 4-0 since their bye, giving up 17-6-21-18 points.
Seattle allowed 26+ points in losses, 21 or less in wins.
Seahawks are 15-21-2 ATS in last 38 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 9-4
Opponents’ team total: over 7-6


QB Smith is 38-42 as an NFL starter, 26-23 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 11-10-1 in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Seattle was held under 300 TY in four of last six games.
Under is 4-3 in their last seven games.
Seattle is 4-1 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Seahawks are minus-9 in turnovers in losses, +4 in wins.


Teams haven’t met since 2021
Seahawks won six of last seven series games.
Vikings are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS last five visits to Seattle.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.


Patriots @ Bills (-14)
Patriots (3-11)
Patriots are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in last four games.
Last four games, New England gave up 28-34-25-30 points.
Patriots are 1-11 when they allow more than 10 points.
Patriots are 3-5 ATS last eight AFC East road games.
Team total: under 7-5-1
Opponents’ team total: over 4-0 last four


NE is 11-23-1 ATS in last 35 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 32-50 SU since Tom Brady left town.
Patriots are 3-4 ATS as a road underdog this year.
Rookie QB Maye is 2-7 as an NFL starter.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Five of Patriots’ 11 losses were by 14+ points.


Bills (11-3)
Buffalo split its last two games, 42-44/48-42.
Bills won eight of their last nine games (7-2 ATS)
Buffalo gave up 35-23-44 points in its losses (9-0 allow less than 23).
Last ten games, Bills are +13 in turnovers (18-5).
Team total: over 12-2
Opponents’ team total: under 8-6


Buffalo is 4-2 ATS as a home favorite TY.
Bills are 7-3 ATS TY in games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 79-38 as an NFL starter.
Last nine Buffalo games went over the total.
Buffalo is 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 AFC East home games.
Last two games, Bills gave up 457-521 yards, with both games in domes.
Last two games, Bills threw ball for 342/362 yards.


Bills are 7-2 SU/5-4 ATS in last six meetings.
Patriots are 1-4 SU/3-2 ATS in last five visits to Buffalo.
Over is 6-2 in last eight series games.


Jaguars @ Raiders (-1.5)
Jaguars (3-11)
Jaguars lost six of their last seven games (5-2 ATS).
Jaguars covered six of their last eight games.
Last four games, Jaguars are minus-6 in turnovers.
Team total: under 8-6
Opponents’ team total: over 6-4 last ten
Jaguars are 2-8 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.


Jaguars are 6-3 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
Jaguars are 1-11 if they score less than 32 points.
Jaguars are 1-10 if they give up 18+ points.
Backup QB Jones is 19-28 as an NFL starter.
Seven of their last ten games went over the total.
AFC South road underdogs are 4-10 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jaguars are 9-12-1 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points.


Raiders (2-12)
Raiders are 0-10 SU/3-7 ATS in last ten games
Raiders have 28 turnovers in 14 games (minus-19).
Last three weeks, Las Vegas scored only 13 ppg.
How are the Raiders favored over anyone???
Raiders are 1-3 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Team total: over 8-6
Opponents’ team total: over 9-5


Raiders are 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS at home this season.
Last two weeks, Raiders were held to 286-249 TY.
QB O’Connell is back; he is 5-9 as a starter, 0-4 TY.
Under is 3-0 in their last three games.
Las Vegas is 18-24-1 ATS in last 43 games coming off a loss.
AFC West favorites are 15-6 ATS in non-divisional games.


Jaguars are 5-3 in last eight series games.
Jaguars split their last four visits to Oakland
This is their first-ever visit to Las Vegas.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.


49ers @ Dolphins (-1)
49ers (6-7)
49ers lost four of last five games, are 1-5 ATS since their bye.
49ers are 1-7 when they score less than 30 points.
Last five weeks, 49ers are minus-8 in turnovers. .
49ers are 0-7 when they gain less than 400 yards.
Team total: under 8-6
Opponents’ team total: over 8-5-1


49ers are 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS on the road this year.
49ers are 13-9 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss.
QB Purdy is 27-12 as an NFL starter.
Over is 8-4 in their last 12 games.
49ers are 5-9 ATS last 14 games vs AFC teams.
49ers are 9-11 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points.
NFC West road teams are 7-8-1 ATS in non-divisional games.


Dolphins (6-8)
Dolphins won last three home games, scoring 34-34-32 points.
Miami is 1-7 when it gives up 20+ points, 5-1 if they allow less.
Last two games, Miami is 5-22 on 3rd down
Tagovailoa is 37-25 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 7-6-1
Opponents’ team total: over 8-6


Miami is 2-5 ATS at home this season.
In games 5-8, Dolphins ran ball for 170 yards/game.
Last six games, Miami ran ball for 58.2 yards/game.
Dolphins are 11-16 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
Over is 5-0 in their last five home games.
Miami is 9-12 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less points.
AFC East home teams are 6-10 ATS in non-divisional games.


Teams split last four meetings.
49ers lost 31-24/14-9 in last two visits to Miami (last one, 2016).
Last four series games went over the total.


Buccaneers (-4) @ Cowboys
Buccaneers (8-6)
Bucs are 4-0 since their bye, scoring 30-26-28-40 points.
Bucs are 2-4 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU/ATS on the road this year.
Bucs are 9-6 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 11-3
Opponents’ team total: over 8-6


Bucs are 5-2 SU/ATS on the road this season.
Under Bowles, Tampa Bay is 5-5 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Mayfield is 50-54 as an NFL starter, 18-15 with Buccaneers.
Eight of Tampa Bay’s last 11 games went over the total.
Bucs are 3-1 SU/ATS in domed stadiums this year.
Bucs held last five opponents under 100 yards rushing.
NFC South road teams are 9-7 ATS in non-divisional games.

Cowboys (6-8)
Dallas won three of its last four games, after an 0-5 skid.
Cowboys are 1-8 when they allow more than 20 points.
Last seven games, Cowboys gave up 27 TD’s on 88 drives.
Dallas is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Team total: under 7-4 last eleven
Opponents’ team total: over 6-3 last nine


Dallas is 4-3 SU/ATS at home this season.
Cowboys are 2-6 ATS last eight games as a home dog.
Backup QB Rush is 8-4 as an NFL starter.
Cowboys converted only 27 of last 79 third down plays.
Over is 8-3 in last eleven Dallas games.
Dallas is minus-11 in turnovers in its losses, +8 in wins.
NFC East non-divisional home underdogs are 1-7 ATS


Teams split their last six meetings.
Bucs are 1-5 SU/3-2-1 in last six visits to Dallas.
Under is 7-1 in last eight series games.


Monday’s game
Saints @ Packers (-14.5)
Saints (5-9)
New Orleans is 3-2 SU/ATS since their coaching change.
Saints failed on 2-point try on last play of LW’s 20-19 loss.
New Orleans is 2-9 when it scores less than 35 points.
Saints are 0-8 when they give up 20+ points.
Team total: under 6-2 last eight
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1 last five


Saints are 16-7-1 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Saints are 2-5 in one-score games this year.
#3 QB Rattler is 0-4 as a starter this year.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
NFC South road underdogs are 7-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Saints are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS in outdoor games this year.


Packers (10-4)
Packers won eight of last ten games (4-0 ATS last four).
Green Bay has four wins by 16+ points.
Last four weeks, Green Bay scored 32.3 points/game.
This is Packers’ third night game in four weeks.
Team total: over 9-5
Opponents’ team total: under 10-3 last 13


GB is 5-4-1 ATS in last 10 games as a home favorite (3-3 TY).
Packers are 10-7 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Green Bay is 9-0 when they allow less than 24 points.
Under is 5-2 in their home games.
Last four games, Green Bay is +5 in turnovers.
NFC North home favorites are 12-6 ATS in non-divisional games.

Teams split their last ten meetings.
Saints are 1-3 SU/2-1-1 ATS last four visits to Lambeau
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.