Cnotes53 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

[Cnotes53]

Friday's Best Bets
April 26, 2018

Friday NBA Playoffs Best Bets

We are reaching the end of the first round of the 2018 NBA playoffs and all three Game 6's that hit the floor on Friday night should be intriguing. Toronto, Cleveland, and Utah all have the opportunity to advance to Round 2 with a victory, and with the former two teams trying to do so on the road, the hostile atmospheres will be something tough for them to deal with.

Utah on the other hand has their own issues to deal with after blowing a 20+ point 3rd quarter lead in Game 5 as they sat back and watch Russell Westbrook and Paul George take over the game. Oklahoma City looked down and out, off-season travel plans in tow, but their comeback showed that at least some guys on that team weren't ready to be done. The Jazz are back at home for Game 6 and probably have to close it out in this game to move on, but how they respond to blowing that huge lead will be a huge storyline for Game 6.

So with three big games on tap, where should your money be going? Here is where mine will be:

Best Bet #1: Toronto +2 and ML (+110)

This is a series that's been dominated by the home team so far (home teams are 5-0 SU and ATS) which is a little surprising given it's the 1 vs 8 matchup. But this Toronto Raptors team has looked more like the one of year's past rather then the one that earned the #1 seed this year, as they've not put Washington away until late in the 4th quarter of their three wins, and they've looked like a team that simply can't win a playoff game on the road. Performing at a high level away from home in the playoffs has been one of the biggest knocks on this Toronto franchise the past few years and so far in Round 1 it looks like nothing has changed.

However, if Toronto does indeed want to get where they want to go in these playoffs, finding ways to win as visitors is a must and should they advance, it's only going to get harder the rest of the way. #1 seeds are supposed to put away a #8 seed in four or five games and Toronto just hasn't really looked the part. Granted, Washington may not be your typical #8 seed with a backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal causing havoc, but they are only two guys. Toronto is a much deeper team then the Wizards and it's that depth that I'm counting on to end this thing in six games.

For one, Toronto's bench has been spoken highly of all year long (for good reason), but they are still a young group that hasn't got a ton of experience this time of year. They really struggled in Games 3 and 4 in Washington, but now that they've gone through that, I'm expecting a much bigger level of comfort to sweep over that unit in Game 6. The starters like DeRozan, Lowry, Ibaka etc, will do their part in containing and keeping pace with Wall and Beal, but it's been Toronto's bench play that has allowed the Raptors to pull away in their home games, and now it's time to do it on the road. G Fred VanFleet could be returning as well, which makes the rotations all the more familiar for Toronto's ?bench mob? and it will be them that becomes the difference in Game 6 and sends Toronto onto Round 2.

Best Bet #2: Cleveland +1 and ML (-105)

Speaking of getting to Round 2, I'm looking for the Cleveland Cavaliers to get there as well after Friday night as they look to put the finishing touches on their series with the Pacers. Cleveland may not be the team they've been the past few years, but LeBron has no problem putting this team on his shoulders and carrying the workload. It doesn't hurt that he routinely gets the benefit of the doubt on calls/non-calls as he definitely goaltended Oladipo's layup late in Game 5, but he still hit a three to win it and without question he does not want to see a Game 7 in Round 1.

LeBron and the Cavs have negated Oladipo's scoring since Game 2, and by forcing others on the Pacers to beat them, the Cavs have turned this series around. Yes, all three of Cleveland's wins have been by four points or less and every game since Game 1 has been decided by that margin, but we've yet to see a complete game by Cleveland where LeBron gets plenty of help and when that comes, these close games will end.

The Pacers had to feel like they have blown multiple opportunities in this series to take a stranglehold on the proceedings (Game 4, up 7 at half in Game 5), and I'm not sure this young team who many did not expect to be in this situation at the beginning of the year have really much left in the tank, mentally or physically.

I look for LeBron to put the Cavs on his back early again in Game 6, get some guys going so that he can get some significant help, and put this series to bed.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday's NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds

The opening round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs continues Friday night with a busy schedule of three Game 6s. The Wizards, Pacers, and Thunder all face elimination at the hands of the Raptors, Cavaliers, and Jazz respectively.

Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards (-2, 214.5)

The Washington Wizards are confident they can force a do-or-die Game 7 with the Toronto Raptors and they'll get a chance to do just that when they host Game 6 on Friday. "We love our chances," point guard John Wall told reporters of the eighth-seeded Wizards' quest to stave off elimination at home. "We're very confident."

Washington won games 3 and 4 at home before the Raptors seized a 3-2 series advantage with Wednesday's 108-98 win in Toronto, but the Wizards are victorious in their last eight playoff games in the nation's capital. DeMar DeRozan scored 32 points and handed out five assists to lead the top-seeded Raptors in the critical Game 5 win. Delon Wright chipped in 18 points in 26 minutes off the bench in the win, eliciting some trash talk from Wizards forward Kelly Oubre Jr. that should add some spice to what has been a contentious series at times. "The next game is a different story," Oubre told the media of Wright. "We're back at home. Just like Delon doesn't play well anywhere else, you know, other than at home. You can kind of chalk it up as the same story."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, NBATV, ESPNews, Sportsnet (Toronto), NBCS Washington

SERIES PRICE (PER WESTGATE LV SUPERBOOK):

BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Wizards opened as 1-point home favorites with their backs against the wall in Game 6. That number has been nudged up to -2 despite 53 percent of consensus wagers being on the Raptors. The total hit betting boards at 214.5 and has yet to move.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (62-25 SU, 46-40-1 ATS, 44-42-1 O/U): Coach Dwane Casey discovered something down the stretch in Game 5 with an odd grouping of DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, C.J. Miles, center Jonas Valanciunas - who had yet to play in the fourth quarter this series - and Wright. "I thought Delon Wright did a good job down the stretch handling the ball," Casey told reporters. "It gave us an opportunity for Kyle and DeMar to get off the ball a little bit more and I thought that was the difference." Valanciunas is averaging 13.4 points on 61.4 percent shooting to go along with 8.8 rebounds in the series.

ABOUT THE WIZARDS (45-42 SU, 39-47-1 ATS, 39-46-2 O/U): Oubre, who is 3-of-16 from 3-point range in the series, might gain a larger role if fellow forward Otto Porter Jr. is unable to go. Porter has been wrestling with a bone bruise in his left leg and will be reassessed Friday, and coach Scott Brooks knows he needs more from the Georgetown product, who averaged 14.7 points this season but has been held to single digits three times in the series. "We need Otto to be more than a 9-10 point scorer for us to win this series," Brooks told reporters.

INJURY REPORT:

Raptors - PG F. VanVleet (Questionable, Shoulder).

Wizards - SF O. Porter Jr. (Probable, Leg), SG J. Meeks (Out For Season, Suspension).

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Over is 4-1 in Raptors' last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 4-0 in Wizards' last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.




Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers (-1, 204)

As long as LeBron James is on the floor, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a chance to win. James, who beat the buzzer to give his team a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven Eastern Conference first-round series on Wednesday, will try to lead the Cavaliers into the semifinals when they visit the Indiana Pacers for Game 6 on Friday.

James capped off a 44-point, 10-rebound, eight-assist performance by nailing a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Cavaliers a 98-95 victory in Game 5 and their first lead of the series. "As a kid, you always have those 'three-two-one' moments, and being able to have one of those moments, that's what it kind of felt like," James told reporters of the last shot. "Felt like I was a kid all over again. Just playing basketball at my house, makeshift hoops and my socks as a basketball. Making the [swish] noise." James' buzzer-beater came after he swatted away a dunk attempt by Indiana's Victor Oladipo at the other end - a play the NBA declared on Thursday should have been called a goaltend. "It is what it is," Pacers center Myles Turner told reporters. "It was clearly a goaltend. They didn't review it. There's not anything you can say about it. It's frustrating. It doesn't change the fact that LeBron still hit that game-winning shot, but it's still a pivotal moment in the game that I feel does need a review."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, FS Ohio (Cleveland), FS Indiana

SERIES PRICE (PER WESTGATE LV SUPERBOOK):

BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Pacers opened as 1.5-point home favorites and we saw a little bit of reverse line movement early with the pointspread coming down to -1 despite 61 percent of consensus wagers being on the home favorites. The total hit betting boards at 204.5 and has dropped slightly to 204.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (53-34 SU, 33-53-1 ATS, 39-46-2 O/U): Kevin Love added a double-double with 11 points and 10 rebounds on Wednesday and felt confident that his teammate was the right person to take the final shot. "We wanted to free up 'Bron as best we could," Love told reporters. "He had to make a read whether to go low or high and caught the ball. He seems to shoot that shot a lot in practice as well as many others; but going to his left and rising without a pump-fake ? he was in a good rhythm and hit an amazing shot. It was unbelievable." Kyle Korver was the only other player to score in double figures with 19 points on 6-of-11 shooting for Cleveland.

ABOUT THE PACERS (50-37 SU, 51-36 ATS, 32-54-1 O/U): Indiana guard Victor Oladipo started out hot in the series but is struggling over the last three games and was just 2-of-15 from the floor while scoring 12 points on Wednesday. The All-Star is 12-of-50 over the last three contests after going 20-of-37 in the first two games. "The series ain't over," Oladipo told reporters. "You got to win four games for the series to be over, right? So, we got a chance to win on Friday. I don't think anybody is discouraged or upset."

INJURY REPORT:

Cavaliers - PG G. Hill (Questionable, Back).

Pacers - PG J. Young (Questionable, Illness).

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 6-0 in Cavaliers' last 6 overall.
* Under is 8-0-1 in Pacers' last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 7-0-1 in the last 8 meetings.




Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz (-6, 206)

The Oklahoma City Thunder staged a comeback for the ages to avoid elimination and now attempt to tie the first-round series against the host Utah Jazz at three games apiece on Friday. Oklahoma City trailed by 25 points with 20 1/2 minutes to play in Wednesday's Game 5 before roaring back to record a 107-99 victory.

Point guard Russell Westbrook scored 33 of his 45 points and in the second half while Paul George tallied 21 of his 34 after halftime as the unexpected explosion kept the Thunder alive. "It was win or go home," Westbrook told reporters. "Regardless of what is going on in the game, you have to give yourself a chance to win, and I thought our guys did a good job of that. They did an amazing job of sticking together." The Jazz will need to put the epic collapse behind them after it looked like they were on their way to finishing off Oklahoma City in five games. "They made adjustments and we didn't make the right adjustments back," Utah guard Donovan Mitchell told reporters. "We will watch the film and figure out what went wrong, but from my analysis right after the game, we just stopped getting back in transition and they just fed off of that."

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, FS Oklahoma, AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain (Utah)

SERIES PRICE (PER WESTGATE LV SUPERBOOK):

BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Jazz opened as 5.5-point home favorites and that number has been pushed up slightly to -6 as of Thursday night. 54 percent of consensus early wagers have been on the desperate Thunder. The total hit betting boards at 206 and has yet to move.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (50-37 SU, 36-50-1 ATS, 39-48 O/U): Westbrook didn't even reach 20 points in two of the first four games of the series and was having a ho-hum Game 5 before erupting in MVP-caliber form. Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan was pleased with the reversal in caliber of play but he also made it clear he has no interest in finding himself in a similar situation in Game 6. "I don't look at it like we're carrying any momentum," Donovan told reporters. "We've got to go in there and we've got to play and play better. This is a team that had us down by 25 points. Now, I'm obviously thrilled with the comeback and it was a great job, but you get down 25 points on the road, that's hard to overcome."

ABOUT THE JAZZ (51-36 SU, 46-41 ATS, 42-44-1 O/U): The Utah collapse occurred during a time center Rudy Gobert picked up his fourth foul and then - after an 81-second return - his fifth foul and there was no recovering from the assault. "When Rudy went out, that impacted us. But that said, I thought our struggles on the offensive end impacted our defense too much," Utah coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "We've known during the year if we struggle offensively that our defense has to stay solid. But I thought when they did start making plays and Rudy went out, that we were fighting it, but we didn't execute as well as we needed to offensively." Gobert notched four straight double-doubles and is averaging 14.4 points and 10.8 rebounds in the series.

INJURY REPORT:

Thunder - SG Andre Roberson (Out For Season, Knee).

Jazz - SF Thabo Sefolosha (Out For Season, Knee).

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 vs. NBA Northwest.
* Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Under is 13-6 in Thunder's last 19 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Over is 12-4 in Jazz's last 16 vs. Western Conference.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Utah

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, April 27


Toronto @ Washington

Game 509-510
April 27, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
116.283
Washington
120.687
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 4 1/2
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
214 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-1 1/2); Under

Cleveland @ Indiana

Game 511-512
April 27, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
117..302
Indiana
120.411
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 3
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 1
204
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(-1); Over

Oklahoma City @ Utah

Game 515-516
April 27, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
120.340
Utah
130.122
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 10
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 6
206
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-6); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, April 27

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TORONTO (62 - 25) at WASHINGTON (45 - 42) - 4/27/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 198-249 ATS (-75.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 38-47 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 19-33 ATS (-17.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
WASHINGTON is 408-476 ATS (-115.6 Units) in home games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 153-201 ATS (-68.1 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 9-7 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 11-5 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (53 - 34) at INDIANA (50 - 37) - 4/27/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 50-36 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
INDIANA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 221-166 ATS (+38.4 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
INDIANA is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
INDIANA is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
CLEVELAND is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games when leading in a playoff series since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 14-5 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 14-7 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
11 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (50 - 37) at UTAH (51 - 36) - 4/27/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-50 ATS (-20.0 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-28 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
UTAH is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-7 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, April 27

Raptors (3-2) @ Wizards


Home side won all five series games, three of which went over total. Washington is 5-10 in its last 15 games vs Toronto, but Raptors won/covered only once in their last four games in this arena. Toronto won 8 of last 11 games overall; they?re 1-3 vs spread in last four away games. Over is 4-2 in their last six games, 6-4 in last ten Wizard games. Washington lost seven of last ten games overall, but they covered their last three home games. Over is 6-4 in their last ten games.

Cavaliers (3-2) @ Pacers

Oladipo is 12-50 from floor in last three series games, after he was 20-37 in first two games. Home side won six of last eight series games; under is 7-0-1 in those games. Cleveland is 1-3 SU/ATS in last four games played here. Cleveland split its last four road games (3-1 vs spread); their last six games overall stayed under total. Indiana split its last four home games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games. James had 44 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists, 6 assists in Game 5; he needs some help (Smith/Love were 2-19 in Game 5).

Thunder @ Jazz (3-2)

Utah was up 25 in third quarter of Game 5 with chance to close series out, but Thunder stormed back to win game and stay alive. Westbrook/George scored 79 of their 107 points. OKC was -6 with Anthony on floor, +14 with him on bench. Thunder lost last two games in this arena by 17-13 points; they?re 3-2 vs spread in last five road games overall. Jazz won nine of last 12 games overall; they won their last five home games, covered last four. Six of last nine series games stayed under.

Wizards-Raptors
Tor 114-106, -7.5, O211
Tor 130-119, -7, O214
Wsh 122-103, -1, O217.5
Wsh 106-98, +1.5, U217
Tor 108-97, -7, U216

Heat-76ers
Phil 130-103, -6.5, O212
Mia 113-103, +6.5, U217
Phil 128-108, -2.5, O213.5
Phil 106-102, -4, U212.5
Phil 104-91, -10, U215.5
76ers win series, 4-1

Bucks-Celtics
Bos 113-107 OT, -4.5, O199.5
Bos 120-106, -1, O200
Mil 116-92, -5, O205.5
Mil 104-102, -5.5, O203.5
Bos 92-87, -4.5, U202.5
Mil 97-86, -4.5, U201.5

Pacers-Cavaliers
Ind 98-80, +7.5, U212.5
Clev 100-97, -8, U209
Ind 92-90, -1.5, U209.5
Clev 104-100, -1.5, U206.5
Clev 98-95, -6.5, U206

Spurs-Warriors
GState 113-92, -8, U209.5
GState 116-101, -9 O205.5
GState 110-97, -3.5, O205.5
SA 103-90, +5.5, U206.5
GState 99-91, -11, U204.5
Warriors win series, 4-1

Pelicans-Blazers
NO 97-95, +5.5, U216.5
NO 111-102, +6, U216
NO 119-102, -3.5, O215.5
NO 131-123, -6.5, O217
Pelicans win series, 4-0

Jazz-Thunder
OKC 116-108, -4.5, O205
Utah 102-95, +4, U206.5
Utah 115-102, -5, O209
Utah 113-96, -5, O208
OKC 107-99, -2.5, U207.5

Wolves-Rockets
Hst 104-101, -11.5, U215.5
Hst 102-82, -10.5, U212.5
Minn 121-105, +6, O217
Hst 119-100, -6, O217
Hst 122-104, -12, O217
Rockets win series, 4-1




NBA

Friday, April 27

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Trend Report
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Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games
Toronto is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Toronto is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington Wizards
Washington is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Washington is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Washington is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto


Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Cleveland is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Indiana
Cleveland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Cleveland is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana Pacers
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indiana is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games
Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Indiana is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indiana's last 11 games at home
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Indiana is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Indiana is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Indiana is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland


Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Oklahoma City's last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Oklahoma City's last 21 games when playing Utah
Oklahoma City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Oklahoma City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oklahoma City's last 10 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah Jazz
Utah is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Utah is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Utah's last 16 games
Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games at home
Utah is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Utah's last 21 games when playing Oklahoma City
Utah is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Utah is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Utah's last 10 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

 

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, APRIL 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOR at WAS 07:00 PM
WAS -1.5
O 214.5

CLE at IND 08:00 PM
IND -1.0
U 204.0

OKC at UTA 10:30 PM
UTA -6.5
O 207.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Pelicans' Holiday playing with 'rage' after finding peace
April 27, 2018

NEW ORLEANS (AP) If it looks like the normally low-key Jrue Holiday has been having the time of his life in the NBA playoffs - from interacting with fans after big shots to, in one instance, mocking an opponent who'd been dunked on - the Pelicans' guard offers an explanation.

''I'm in a really good place. Everything in my life is pretty good - family, basketball, financially,'' Holiday began after practice this week, as the Pelicans prepared for a second-round playoff match-up with Golden State.

''I got a bonus this year, so that's awesome,'' Holiday added, drawing some chuckles as he referred to his whopping, five-year, $126 million contract last offseason. ''I mean, yeah. I feel pretty good.''

Once upon a time, Holiday was a young Eastern Conference All-Star guard with Philadelphia who seemed to possess a world of potential. A draft-day trade in 2013 paired him with emerging star big man Anthony Davis in New Orleans, but during the next four years, one thing or another conspired against him.

During his first season with the Pelicans, he developed a stress fracture in his lower leg that required surgery, but one of the screws used to repair the fracture became an irritant, forcing additional procedures. That wiped out much of his first two seasons. He returned on minute restrictions in his third season and showed promise, only to have that campaign cut short by a fluky eye injury caused by an inadvertent elbow to the head.

Holiday was finally healthy heading into his fourth season in New Orleans - but his wife, former U.S. Soccer star Lauren Holiday, was not. She was diagnosed with a brain tumor while pregnant with the couple's first child, and Holiday took an extended leave of absence to attend to family.

Now the 6-foot-4 Holiday looks reinvigorated by a recent convergence of positive trends in his life.

In addition to being content with his family life and career trajectory, he's also about as healthy as he's been in half a decade, and his team is in the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Now he can focus purely on winning and being as feisty as it takes to do so.

''I always feel like I'm aggressive, but (playoff) games are a little different where you can key in on a certain team and be able to study them for a long time because you know you have at least four games,'' Holiday explained. ''Mentally, just locking in to the matchup or the schemes or whatever it is, brings out a little more intensity.''

Holiday was a big reason the sixth-seeded Pelicans swept third-seeded Portland in the first round of the postseason. He scored 33 points in Game 2 and 41 points in the clinching Game 4. His performances have been dynamic. He's made big perimeter shots, such as his late 3-pointer in Game 4, and he's been a strong finisher at the rim. He shot about 57 percent for the series.

Defensively, he helped hold Portland All-Star guard Damian Lillard in check and came up with pivotal, late-game steals or blocks.

''I know what type of player he's been since he's been here, but I think this has been a great year for him,'' Davis said. ''People are really starting to notice.''

Davis and fellow teammates have been particularly amused by the transformation of Holiday's on-court persona, and won't say a word to discourage it.

Holiday has rarely been all that animated on the court or much of a trash talker. But against Portland his gesticulations - or his eagerness to sprint into scuffles after a hard foul- were impossible to miss.

''I have no idea where that came from, talking smack to the fans. I've never seen it,'' Davis said. ''I love it. If he can keep getting 40 for us then I'll make him mad every game.

On a more serious note, Davis added, ''I think everybody just recognized the type of team that we have and realized that we can be something special, so it just brings a lot out in everybody.''

Veteran guard Rajon Rondo, long known to exchange verbal barbs with opponents, grinned when he recalled Holiday pointing at Jusuf Nurkic after Davis had dunked on the Portland center in Game 3.

''It's just a different side of him. He's playing with a lot of rage,'' Rondo said. ''He's overlooked a lot. What he's doing now, the world's finally seeing the real Jrue Holiday and I love every minute of it.

''He's still a smooth player,'' Rondo continued. ''But when he has a mentality of attacking and no one can stay in front of him and he can score against anyone, I think that's when we're at our best.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Oladipo, Pacers force Cavaliers to Game 7 with 121-87 rout
April 27, 2018

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) Victor Oladipo scored 28 points and posted the first postseason triple-double of his career Friday night, leading the Indiana Pacers to a 121-87 blowout over the Cleveland Cavaliers to even the series at three.

Game 7 will be played Sunday in Cleveland.

The three-time defending Eastern Conference champs again were led by LeBron James with 22 points, seven assists and five rebounds despite sitting out the entire fourth quarter. Nobody else scored more than 13 points as the Cavaliers lost their first closeout game in 14 tries dating to 2009. James had won 11 consecutive closeout games and is 12-0 all-time in the first-round series.

Kevin Love hurt his left wrist on a hard fall midway through the second quarter and wound up scoring just seven points while shooting 3 of 10 from the field.

RAPTORS 102, WIZARDS 92

WASHINGTON (AP) - Toronto overcame a halftime deficit in a road playoff game for the first time in 24 tries, using 24 points from Kyle Lowry and a tremendous effort from its finally whole second unit to beat Washington in Game 6 and end the Eastern Conference first-round series.

Toronto trailed by as many as 12 points in the first quarter and was down 53-50 at the end of the second. The Raptors' first lead did not come until the third quarter, and they were back down by five points entering the final period.

But with star guards Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, who had a personal series-low 16 points, resting to begin the fourth, reserves led by point guard Fred VanVleet turned around the game. Bothered by a bad right shoulder, VanVleet had played a total of three minutes in the series until Friday, but he was just what Toronto needed in this game, with five points, four assists and four rebounds

John Wall had 23 points and eight assists in Game 6. Bradley Beal led Washington with 32 points. But the Wizards' run of eight home playoff wins in a row came to a close.

 

[Cnotes53]

JAZZ 96 OKC 91


************************

SCHEDULE FOR SATURDAY APRIL 28, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:00 PM Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics TD Garden
10:30 PM New Orleans Pelicans Golden State Warriors ORACLE Arena


**********************


NBA PLAYOFF RECORD

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

04/27/2018 1-5-0 16.67% -22.50
04/26/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
04/25/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
04/24/2018 4-2-0 66.67% +9.00
04/23/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
04/22/2018 1-7-0 12.50% -33.50
04/21/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
04/20/2018 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
04/19/2018 1-5-0 16.67% -22.50
04/18/2018 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
04/17/2018 4-2-0 66.67% +900
04/16/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
04/15/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
04/14/2018 1-6-1 14.29% -28.00

TOTALS.........33-49-1........40.24%.....-99.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack

? Ole Miss transfer QB Shea Patterson is eligible to play at Michigan this fall.

? AL Central is 21-49 outside the division so far this season.

? Colorado Rockies won 1-0 in Miami Friday night, just their 20th-ever 1-0 win, which is the fewest in MLB since 1993.

? Steelers drafted Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph; is he Big Ben?s successor?

? New Pitt basketball coach Jeff Capel hired his brother Jeff as an assistant coach.

? Jason Witten will retire from the Cowboys and be the analyst on Monday Night Football this fall.

Quotes of the Day
?Hey Dallas! The last time you were in a Super Bowl, these draft picks weren?t BORN!?
Former Eagles kicker David Akers, at the NFL Draft in Dallas

Saturday?s quiz
Where did Jason Witten play his college football?

Friday?s quiz
Paul Tagliabue was commissioner of the NFL before Roger Goodell.

Thursday?s quiz
Cleveland Browns are 2-41 in their last 43 games; Johnny Manziel and Robert Griffin III were the Browns? starting QB?s in those two wins.


**********************


Saturday?s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind??.

13) Utah Jazz led Oklahoma City by 25 in Game 5 of their series before the Thunder came back and won Game 5 of their series.

A guy in Las Vegas had $4,000 on the Thunder (-2.5); he tossed the ticket in the trash when Utah got up by 25, and he had to do some mad scrambling thru the garbage to get the ticket back after OKC stormed back for the win/cover.

Luckily for him, a) the trash hadn?t been emptied and b) he found the ticket.

12) In the 6th inning Wednesday nite, Tampa Bay Rays put a lefty reliever named Jonny Venters in to face lefty slugger Chris Davis. No big deal; that stuff happens over and over all throughout baseball. Lefty vs lefty. One batter. Venters retired Davis on four pitches.

But this was different; Venters hadn?t appeared in a major league game in six years, or 2,008 games; he was 15-10, 2.25 in 230 games for the Braves from 2010-12.

Since then, Venters has had three Tommy John surgeries on his left elbow; the hours and hours of rehab he went through?- there had to be times he thought Wednesday night would never come, but now he is back in the major leagues. Good for him.

11) Carolina Panthers took WR DJ Moore with the 24th pick Thursday night; the kid had 8 QB?s in his three years playing WR at Maryland. Eight QB?s in three years is an awful lot.

Norv Turner is the Panthers? new OC; Cam Newton will be a fascinating follow this season.

10) Eagles got an extra 2nd round pick in 2019 for dropping down 20 spots in this draft so the Ravens could take Lamar Jackson.

9) Cal-Riverside has a new basketball coach (David Patrick); one of the Highlanders? new assistant coaches is Mike Magpayo, who at one time was the CEO of a multimillion dollar real estate firm in SoCal.

8) Seattle?s Jean Segura has come to bat with a man on 3rd base 10 times this season; he knocked that runner in all 10 times.

7) Players who have come to bat with most men on base this season (thru Thursday):
Khris Davis 94, Didi Gregorius 86, Giancarlo Stanton 85, Marcell Ozuna 84

6) Players who have driven in the highest %age of baserunners this season (min 50 PA):
Brad Miller 33.3%, David Peralta 32.4%, Preston Tucker 28.3%, Nick Ahmed, 27.8%

5) Portland Trailblazers had an excellent season, going 49-33, but now they?ve lost their last 10 playoff games so you hope it doesn?t cost coach Terry Stotts his job.

4) Dodgers/Kershaw were -$380 to beat the Marlins Wednesday night; they lost. Long time ago, I read something that said laying anything more than $-150 in baseball is a bad idea. Whether that is still true or not I?m not sure, but laying more than -$200 isn?t wise.

3) Miami Dolphins drafted TE Mike Gesicki in the 2nd round; for some reason. NFL Network showed highlights of Gesicki playing high school basketball? he scored over 1,800 points in HS, which is nice, but its a football draft.

2) It is April 28 and national baseball writers are already speculating on where stars on struggling teams or small market teams will be traded to. As an A?s fan, few things make my blood boil as quickly as this, like Oakland, Tampa Bay and the Orioles are bleepin? farm clubs for the %$#@& rich teams.

1) Umpire Will Little worked home plate in April 21?s Toronto-New York game, the 8th time in last four years Little has done the plate in a Bronx Bomber game. Here is how those games went:

2015
Bronx W5-2 @ Baltimore +$123 U9

Bronx W3-1 @ Seattle -$115 U7

2016
Bronx W6-3 vs Tampa Bay +$103 O8
Bronx W7-3 vs Kansas City -$130 O8

2017
Bronx W3-2 vs St Louis +$123, U8

Bronx W3-2 vs Oakland -$145, U9.5
Bronx W7-4 @ Baltimore +$121, O9.5

2018
Bronx W9-1 vs Toronto -$148, O9

8-0, outscoring opponents 43-18, and they were an underdog four times. Not going to say another bleeping word except this: if you were a big league manager, would you want Will Little umping the plate in a game against the Bronx Bombers?

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's Best Bet
April 27, 2018

Saturday NBA Playoffs Best Bet
Milwaukee vs. Boston ? Game 7 (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)

While it's not certain we will have any more Game 7's in the first round of the NBA playoffs at the time of this writing, we've at least got one, as the Bucks look to knock of Boston on Saturday night and get the first road victory for any team in this series.

To not get by the first round for the second straight year would be a tough blow for this Milwaukee franchise, especially considering Boston is ravaged with injuries this year and likely have their sights set on title runs in the upcoming seasons.

That's not to say Boston's not going to try and go as far as they can this year, but for a Bucks team that is looking more and more like Giannis Antetokounmpo and nobody else (like they were a year ago), not taking advantage of this opportunity would sting.

Yet, the fact remains that no road team has won a game yet in this series, and only once have the visitor's covered the number (Boston in Game 4). Milwaukee is going to have to buck ? no pun intended ? all of that and some significant history to move on to the next round, and you always know that the ghosts of the Boston Garden may be lurking in a pivotal Game 7 like this.

So who wins?

Boston (-4.5); Total set at 195

During any round of the NBA playoffs in the history of the league, at least during seven-game series, home teams in Game 7 like Boston who have won the prior three home games and lost the three on the road have a 17-4 SU record overall. That's good for a .810 win percentage which makes that uphill climb Milwaukee has to do seem all the more difficult. The good news for the Bucks is that situation has home teams just 2-1 SU specifically in the first round of the NBA playoffs, although it was only fairly recently (2003) that the NBA went to a seven-game format for the first round.

History is something I always consider during the playoffs, and it's usually not something I like to go against, but each series is looked at on it's own case by case basis. And regarding this Bucks/Celtics series, I think history can be ignored a bit more here, simply because it's actually the Bucks who are the ones with the best player on the floor (Antetokounmpo), and in the NBA, that means a lot.

Game 5 was a big lesson for the Bucks as after the were in a similar position trying to win on the road and take control of the series. It was a brutal start for them (down 11 at half), but they put much of that burden on themselves by trying to let their supporting cast carry the bulk of the workload. Antetokounmpo was fourth on the team in shot attempts (10) as others like Middleton, Parker, and Bledsoe shot the ball more with much less success.

That's a solid formula for success at home, but on the road in the playoffs, you've got to ride or die with your superstars and hopefully for Bucks fans, their team learned that lesson after Game 5. I expect Antetokounmpo to be ultra-aggressive from the outset of Game 7 and if him getting going frees up more space for his supporting cast I've already mentioned, then the Bucks could have something on their hands.

Boston is a team that's gotten comfortable in finding W's at home, but I feel they are relying on home court way too much at times. They've yet to really face the Bucks at their best in any of the three games in Boston, and aside from a Game 2 blowout win, the Celtics have been lucky to survive. They've blown big leads in both Games 1 and 5 to either have Milwaukee tie the game or be within one possession, and playing with fire like that is eventually going to get them burned.

So while history may suggest this Game 7 is Boston's to lose, I would not be surprised to see that exactly be the case. Milwaukee has the best player on the floor and if they allow him to shine the brightest and let everyone come along for the ride, then it will be the Bucks who are still playing basketball next week.

A lack of execution late in Games 1 and 5, and Boston's ability to make Antentokounmpo uncomfortable down the stretch with their defense, forcing others on Milwaukee to hit a shot, has me tentative on taking Milwaukee outright, but I've got no problem grabbing these mufti-possession points as if Milwaukee doesn't win SU, they aren't going to lose this game by more than four.

Best Bet: Milwaukee +4.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's Top Wager
April 27, 2018

Western Conference Semifinals - Game 1 (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)
No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans vs. No. 2 Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors vanquished the San Antonio Spurs easily in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs and will now aim to roll through another foe. Golden State will again be a heavy favorite when it takes on the No. 6 seed New Orleans Pelicans in the Western Conference Semifinals.

Everyone is expecting the Warriors to meet up with the Houston Rockets in the conference finals, and the Pelicans would need to play the series of their lives in order to have a shot at the upset. Golden State gets Game 1 at home, where it will be a sizable favorite to take care of business and pull out to an early lead.

The Pelicans made it to this point in stunningly easy fashion, knocking off the higher-seeded Portland Trail Blazers in four straight games. Many counted out New Orleans after it lost star big man DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury during the regular season, but the Pelicans have played well since that loss.

They hope to keep the momentum rolling but that is much easier said than done when facing off against a team as talented as the Warriors in NBA basketball betting.

Game 1 of this NBA Playoff Series is on Saturday, April 28, 2018 at 10:30 p.m. ET Oracle Arena in Oakland, California. The contest will be nationally televised on TNT.

We'll have NBA odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NBA Playoffs.

Odds Analysis

The Warriors are 8.5-point favorites for Game 1, as the spread has creeped up a half-point since its release. The Pelicans are getting about 72 percent of the action at this total and it figures to remain around here until tipoff.

The scoring total is listed at 223.5 points, which is up one point from where it began. The ?under? is the more popular choice among gamblers as about 57 percent of the action is on that side of the scoring total. Golden State scored less than usual in its first-round series against the Spurs but should return to its high-flying ways against a Pelicans team more liable to push the pace.

Golden State is a -440 favorite on the moneyline, while the Pelicans are listed as the +344 underdogs. More than 76 percent of the action is on New Orleans to pull the unlikely road upset.

Injury Report

The spread is likely taking into account the belief Warriors superstar shooting guard Stephen Curry won?t play because of a sprained MCL. He missed the final portion of the regular season and the first round series against the Spurs due to the injury.

Curry has been seen on the court at practice and during pregame shootaround and looks like he might be close to making a return. He is getting re-evaluated and there may be an update on his status soon.

The team is stacked with stars Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson already so even if Curry has to miss a few more games, the Warriors would be fine. But his return would be a big boost and would certainly affect the spread.

Coaching Situation

Pelicans coach Alvin Gentry knows the Warriors well, as he was an assistant there under Steve Kerr a few years ago, winning a title with Golden State back in 2015.

Gentry worked as an associate head coach under Kerr in 2014 and 2015. The coaches are close off the court, but will now have to engage in a battle of wits. It will be intriguing to see if Gentry?s inside knowledge of the Warriors can help give New Orleans a small edge. However, extreme talent always has the advantage over coaching, so in the end Golden State should be able to overcome any wrinkles Gentry and the Pelicans try to employ.

Free NBA ATS Picks

The Pelicans are rolling right now and should come in feeling good. Even though the Warriors have four stars leading the way, New Orleans can counter with a dominant presence down low in Anthony Davis. A fantastic series from him is essential for the Pelicans to hang around, while point guard Jrue Holiday needs to keep playing well.

If Curry plays, the spread could go up as he would give the Warriors an unstoppable group. It seems more likely he sits for at least one more game. Durant, Thompson and Draymond Green will lead Golden State to the win, but the Pelicans are the pick to keep it close and cover the spread. Consider the ?under? as Gentry may have a trick up his sleeve to slow down Golden State just a tad in NBA basketball gambling.

NBA Best Bet: Warriors 109, Pelicans 102

 

[Cnotes53]

Warriors' Curry questionable for Game 1
April 27, 2018

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Stephen Curry is impatient and eager to get back in a game for the Golden State Warriors, yet he knows it's not worth risking re-injuring his left knee by pushing his return too soon.

The two-time MVP on Friday went through his first 5-on-5 scrimmage since the injury but coach Steve Kerr wasn't ready to proclaim Curry a go for Saturday night - that might not be decided until after the morning shootaround. Kerr listed Curry's status as questionable for a second straight day ahead of Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals against the New Orleans Pelicans at Oracle Arena.

''Still to be determined,'' Curry said. ''They come up with those snazzy words for a reason - doubtful, questionable, probable. I've learned a lot about what those words mean this year. Just trying to work my way up, do what I need to do, do whatever Chelsea (Lane) and the rest of the athletic training staff and coach needs to see to get me back out there. That's the only thing I can really focus on right now. It is good to be back actually playing basketball and doing basketball things.''

Curry, Kerr and Lane spoke in depth after Friday's scrimmage, which wasn't visible to media members with a curtain blocking one court at team headquarters.

On Thursday, Curry resumed full practice with contact but Kerr wanted to see how Curry responded after consecutive intense days of on-court work before he and the training staff decided when to let Curry return.

''A big part of this is how he turns up tomorrow after a night's rest,'' Kerr said. ''It's the first time he's scrimmaged in six weeks, five weeks, whatever it is. It's not as simple as he feels good, throw him out there. It's more about give him a few days, see how he responds from there.''

There was still no date for Game 2 of the best-of-seven series, though Curry was hoping if he couldn't play Saturday that the game would be at least Tuesday - not Monday - to give him a better chance.

He nearly feels like himself again, moving the way he's used to during a game. Curry isn't sure what kind of minutes to expect initially when he does return but figures he will discuss that with Kerr ahead of time.

''I'm getting there,'' he said. ''My knee feels pretty good. I don't have any pain with doing things I've been doing.''

Curry wore compression leggings Friday to protect his sprained knee, which has sidelined him since the injury March 23. It was bad luck given that's the same day he returned from a six-game absence because of a hurt right ankle.

He was happy to not need a brace he tried out Thursday. The Warriors eliminated the San Antonio Spurs in Game 5 of the first-round series with a 99-91 win Tuesday night and Curry wants to make sure he doesn't disrupt any flow or momentum with the team on a roll.

''The priority for us is to be the best team we can be,'' he said. ''When I'm 100 percent healthy and doing what I need to do I obviously try to lead that charge but right now the conversations become how can you manage those minutes and still be productive and still have a cohesive lineup and flow to the game and all that type of stuff. That's what Coach has to think through.''

Curry said he wasn't trying to persuade Kerr or Lane to let him play Saturday.

''There's no real politicking at all, it's not that serious. It's a matter of how you feel, can you do this, can you do that and check off all the boxes along the way,'' he said. ''Once I get through all those checkpoints and have confidence in myself and my body I'll be out there, whether that's tomorrow night or Monday or Tuesday, whenever Game 2 is, that's the process that I'm all too familiar with.''

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA Playoffs - Game 7 Facts
April 27, 2018

Game 7 Quick Facts

-- The NBA has had 128 Game 7?s in playoff history

-- The home team is 102-26 (80%) in those games

-- The 2017 NBA playoffs only had two Game 7's and the results were split with the Jazz capturing a rare road victory.

Western Conference First Round - Utah 104 at L.A. Clippers 91
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Boston 115 vs. Washington 105

-- The 2016 NBA playoffs had five Game 7's played and the home team won four games (3-2 ATS), two of the victories coming by double digits.

Eastern Conference First Round - Miami 106 vs. Charlotte 73
Eastern Conference First Round - Toronto 89 vs. Indiana 84
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Toronto 116 vs. Miami 89
Western Conference Finals - Golden State 96 vs. Oklahoma City 88
NBA Finals - Cleveland 93 at Golden State 89

-- The 2015 postseason featured two Game 7's. The home team went 2-0 with the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets capturing victories.

-- The 2014 postseason featured five Game 7's. The home team went 4-1 in those games and the lone visitor to win was Brooklyn, who defeated Toronto 104-103 in overtime.

Milwaukee Game 7 Recent History

As a franchise, the Bucks have appeared in nine Game 7's but the last instance came in 2010. The club is 2-7 all-time in Game 7.

2010 Eastern Conference First Round
Atlanta 95 vs. Milwaukee 74

Boston Game 7 Recent History

The Celtics have played in the most Game 7's in NBA history with 30 appearances. They've gone 22-8 in those contests but a 10-0 record was helped during the Bill Russell era. Since then, the club is 12-8. At home, Boston has gone 19-4 in Game 7's which includes last year's win over Washington in the conference semifinals.

2017 Eastern Conference Semifinals
Boston 115 vs. Washington 105

2012 Eastern Conference Finals
Boston 88 at Miami 101

2012 Eastern Conference First Round
Boston 85 vs. Philadelphia 75


ALL-TIME GAME 7 ROAD WINNERS
Year Road Team Home Team Round
2017 Utah 104 L.A. Clippers 91 First round
2016 Cleveland 93 Golden State 89 NBA Finals
2014 Brooklyn 104 Toronto 103 First round
2013 Chicago 99 Brooklyn 93 First round
2012 L.A. Clippers 82 Memphis 72 First round
2009 Orlando 101 Boston 82 Conference semifinals
2007 San Antonio 91 New Orleans 82 Conference semifinals
2007 Utah 103 Houston 99 First round
2006 *Dallas 119 San Antonio 111 Conference semifinals
2005 Detroit 88 Miami 82 Conference finals
2005 Indiana 97 Boston 70 First round
2002 *L.A. Lakers 112 Sacramento 106 Conference finals
2000 New York 83 Miami 82 Conference semifinals
1995 Indiana 97 New York 95 Conference semifinals
1995 Houston 115 Phoenix 114 Conference semifinals
1982 Philadelphia 120 Boston 106 Conference finals
1981 Kansas City 95 Phoenix 88 Conference semifinals
1981 Houston 105 San Antonio 100 Conference semifinals
1978 Washington 105 Seattle 99 NBA Finals
1976 Phoenix 94 Golden State 86 Conference finals
1974 Boston 102 Milwaukee 87 NBA Finals
1973 New York 94 Boston 78 Conference finals
1971 Baltimore 93 New York 91 Conference finals
1969 Boston 108 L.A. Lakers 106 NBA Finals
1968 Boston 100 Philadelphia 96 Division finals
1948 Philadelphia 85 St Louis 46 Semifinals
(*) Asterisk denotes overtime

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, April 28


New Orleans @ Golden State

Game 551-552
April 28, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
118.320
Golden State
129.873
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 11 1/2
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 8 1/2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-8 1/2); Over

Milwaukee @ Boston

Game 701-702
April 28, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
114.789
Boston
121.870
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 7
191
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 4 1/2
195 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-4 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (52 - 34) at GOLDEN STATE (62 - 25) - 4/28/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 132-97 ATS (+25.3 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 59-37 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 61-35 ATS (+22.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-36 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in April games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against Pacific division opponents this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 36-48 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-43 ATS (-12.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 6-5 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (47 - 41) at BOSTON (58 - 30) - 4/28/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 37-46 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 153-192 ATS (-58.2 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 134-171 ATS (-54.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 19-29 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 28-18 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 135-101 ATS (+23.9 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 11-6 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-7 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
11 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 28

Bucks @ Celtics (3-3)
Home side won last eight series games, including all six this month; Bucks are 1-4 vs spread in their last five visits to Boston. Over is 6-2 in last ten series games (0-2 in last two). Milwaukee needs either Brogdon/Bledsoe to step up and be Bucks? third double figure scorer. Bucks lost last four road games overall (0-4 vs spread)- four of their last five road games went over. Celtics won/covered five of last six home games, winning at home by 5-14-6 points in this series. Five of their last six home games went over.

Pelicans @ Warriors (0-0)
Golden State won nine of last ten games with New Orleans but Pelicans won last visit here April 7; this matters lot more now. Pelicans are 5-3 vs spread in last eight series games; they?re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Oakland. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. New Orleans swept Portland 4-0; they?ve won/covered their last nine games, five of which were on road. Warriors beat San Antonio in five games, winning home tilts by 8-15-21 points. Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Curry?s status for this series is unknown.

Wizards-Raptors
Tor 114-106, -7.5, O211
Tor 130-119, -7, O214
Wsh 122-103, -1, O217.5
Wsh 106-98, +1.5, U217
Tor 108-97, -7, U216
Tor 102-92, -2, U214.5
Raptors win series, 4-2

Heat-76ers
Phil 130-103, -6.5, O212
Mia 113-103, +6.5, U217
Phil 128-108, -2.5, O213.5
Phil 106-102, -4, U212.5
Phil 104-91, -10, U215.5
76ers win series, 4-1

Bucks-Celtics
Bos 113-107 OT, -4.5, O199.5
Bos 120-106, -1, O200
Mil 116-92, -5, O205.5
Mil 104-102, -5.5, O203.5
Bos 92-87, -4.5, U202.5
Mil 97-86, -4.5, U201.5

Pacers-Cavaliers
Ind 98-80, +7.5, U212.5
Clev 100-97, -8, U209
Ind 92-90, -1.5, U209.5
Clev 104-100, -1.5, U206.5
Clev 98-95, -6.5, U206
Ind 121-87, -1.5, O202

Spurs-Warriors
GState 113-92, -8, U209.5
GState 116-101, -9 O205.5
GState 110-97, -3.5, O205.5
SA 103-90, +5.5, U206.5
GState 99-91, -11, U204.5
Warriors win series, 4-1

Pelicans-Blazers
NO 97-95, +5.5, U216.5
NO 111-102, +6, U216
NO 119-102, -3.5, O215.5
NO 131-123, -6.5, O217
Pelicans win series, 4-0

Jazz-Thunder
OKC 116-108, -4.5, O205
Utah 102-95, +4, U206.5
Utah 115-102, -5, O209
Utah 113-96, -5, O208
OKC 107-99, -2.5, U207.5
Utah 96-91, ?7, U207.5
Jazz win series, 4-2

Wolves-Rockets
Hst 104-101, -11.5, U215.5
Hst 102-82, -10.5, U212.5
Minn 121-105, +6, O217
Hst 119-100, -6, O217
Hst 122-104, -12, O217
Rockets win series, 4-1




NBA

Saturday, April 28

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Trend Report
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Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Milwaukee's last 23 games
Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games on the road
Milwaukee is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Celtics
Boston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 10 games
Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games at home
Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee


New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Golden State
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
New Orleans is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games at home
Golden State is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Golden State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Golden State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans

 

[Cnotes53]

SATURDAY, APRIL 28
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIL at BOS 08:00 PM
MIL +4.5
U 195.0

NO at GS 10:30 PM
NO +9.0
O 224.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Celtics take Game 7, eliminating Bucks
April 29, 2018

BOSTON (AP) Al Horford and Terry Rozier scored 26 points apiece, and even Giannis Antetokounmpo tipped in a basket for the Celtics on Saturday night to help Boston beat Milwaukee 112-96 in Game 7 of their first-round series and eliminate the Bucks and the Greek Freak from the playoffs.

Horford had eight rebounds, Rozier had nine assists and Jayson Tatum added 20 points for the Celtics, who rode the home-court advantage to win all four games in Boston and advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals for the second straight year.

They will meet the Philadelphia 76ers, with Game 1 in Boston on Monday night.

Khris Middleton scored 32, Eric Bledsoe had 23 and Antetokounmpo had 22 points and nine rebounds for the Bucks. Milwaukee has advanced from the first round of the playoffs just once since 1989, losing nine straight playoff series since Ray Allen, Glenn Robinson and Sam Cassell brought George Karl to the Eastern Conference finals in 2001.

Playing in their NBA-record 31st Game 7, the Celtics improved to 20-4 at home and 23-8 overall in best-of-seven clinchers. It was the second Game 7 at the TD Garden this week, with the Boston Bruins beating the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday night to advance in the NHL playoffs.

WARRIORS 123, PELICANS 101

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) - Kevin Durant had 26 points and 13 rebounds, Draymond Green dazzled all over the floor with his fourth career postseason triple-double, and the Golden State Warriors thoroughly overmatched the New Orleans Pelicans.

Green finished with 16 points, 15 rebounds, 11 assists, three steals and two blocks and just with his hustle and energy helped the defending champions pull away with a superb, decisive second quarter.

Now, they likely get Stephen Curry back for Game 2 on Tuesday night and all that he brings - even if in a limited role initially.

Anthony Davis had 21points and 10 rebounds, scoring 10 in the first quarter before having a tougher time generating shots the rest of the way to finish 9 for 20. Jrue Holiday was held to 4-for-14 shooting and 11 points.

Golden State again played without two-time MVP Curry, who has been sidelined since March 23 with a sprained left knee. Coach Steve Kerr called it ''very likely'' Curry would play Game 2 in the best-of-seven series.

 

[Cnotes53]

SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY APRIL 29, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
1:00 PM Indiana Pacers Cleveland Cavaliers Quicken Loans Arena
3:30 PM Utah Jazz Houston Rockets Toyota Center


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Round 2 Best Bets:


04/28/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00


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Sunday?s 6-pack

? Chiefs drafted Kahlil McKenzie, whose dad is the Oakland Raiders? GM. That will make two days of the year very awkward for Mrs McKenzie.

? Cubs, White Sox both pitched a shutout Saturday; first time they both hurled shutout on same day since August 29, 2011.

? Buffalo Bills drafted WR Austin Proehl, whose dad Ricky won a Super Bowl with the Rams.

? Celtics 112, Bucks 96? Home team won all seven games in this series.

? Boston College junior G Jerome Robinson will stay in NBA draft, bad news for the Eagles.

? When Jose Altuve originally signed with Houston, his bonus was $15,000. This year, he is making $55,555.55??.a game. It?ll be triple that starting in 2020.

Quotes of the Day
?People call you and they want the second pick of the draft for a bag of donuts, a hot pretzel and a hot dog. Leave me alone. I don?t have time to screw around.?
Giants? GM Dave Gettleman

Sunday?s quiz
Before this week, Mets have played 14 series at Petco Park in San Diego. How many have they won?

Saturday?s quiz
Jason Witten played his college football at Tennessee.

Friday?s quiz
Paul Tagliabue was commissioner of the NFL before Roger Goodell.


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Sunday?s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday?

13) The Interweb has so many NFL mock drafts in the months before this weekend, you should know this: Of the 100 draft picks Thursday/Friday, 51 of those picks were traded before the pick was eventually used to select a player.

Kind of hard to pinpoint who is going where when the picks get traded so much.

12) Remember the Tom Cruise movie Jerry Maguire, when Cruise played a sports agent? The actor who played the GM of Arizona Cardinals was singer Glenn Frey of the Eagles.

11) Alabama had 12 players taken in the this year?s draft; NC State/Ohio State were next, with 7 each. Seven players taken in one draft is an NC State record.

10) Alabama punter JK Scott was drafted by Green Bay; his agent is Alexa Stabler, daughter of the late Hall of Fame QB/Alabama alum Ken Stabler.

9) This from an NFL source about LSU RB Derrius Guice, who the Redskins drafted:

?He got into an altercation at a meeting with the Eagles. He had several meetings where he came across lazy only wants to play video games. We caught a direct dishonesty from him in our meeting.?

Guice disputes that story, but apparently lot of teams believed it; he dropped to the 59th pick.

8) White Sox 3B Matt Davidson has seven homers at Kauffman Stadium this season; thats the most by any visiting player EVER in one season at Kauffman Stadium, and it isn?t May yet.

7) Thunder vs Utah with Carmelo Anthony on-court: 194 minutes, -58

Thunder vs Utah with Carmelo Anthony off-court: 94 minutes, +32

Sometimes life is simple.

6) Arizona Diamondbacks won their first eight series this year, the first team since the 2001 Seattle Mariners to do that, and first NL team since the ?77 Dodgers.

5) Earl Anthony was one of the best bowlers of all-time; turns out the lefty with a crew cut was once offered a $35,000 bonus to pitch in the Orioles farm system, but he turned them down.

4) Utah Jazz PG Ricky Rubio strained his hamstring in the clinching win over Oklahoma City, and will be out 7-10 days, bad news for the Jazz as they take on the Houston Rockets.

3) As I?m writing this, a teenager in a t-shirt and gym shorts just read the Packers? draft pick. Don?t be afraid to get dressed up, son. You?re on national TV.

2) Colts had four 2nd-round picks this year, first team since the ?09 Patriots to have four 2nd-round picks in the same draft.

1) Washington Nationals? rookie manager Dave Martinez messed up Saturday; Arizona was going to send up PH Chris Owings in the top of the 10th inning in a 3-3 game, so Martinez went out and removed his lefty reliever so a righty could face Owings. One small problem??.

Martinez took the pitcher out before the pinch-hitter Owings was announced, so Arizona left the lefty batter Dyson in the game to face the righty reliever. A pitcher has to face one batter before he can be taken out; the pinch-hitter isn?t officially ?in the game? until the PA announcer says his name over the PA system.

Owings walked and then the next batter walked and Arizona won 4-3. No bueno.

 

[Cnotes53]

Game 7 - Pacers at Cavaliers
April 28, 2018

For the first time in LeBron James? career, he is facing elimination in the opening round of the playoffs.

The Cavaliers return home on Sunday after getting wiped out by the Pacers on Friday night, 121-87 as Indiana evened up its best-of-seven series at 3-3. As the top-seeded Raptors wait in the wings after eliminating the Wizards in six games, Cleveland looks for another chance to knock out Toronto for the third consecutive postseason. But, they have to get past the Pacers first.

The Pacers built a 10-point advantage in Game 6, then extended the lead to 25 after three quarters at 92-67. Indiana scorched Cleveland from the floor by hitting 56% of its shots, including Victor Oladipo busting out of his shooting slump by scoring 28 points. Oladipo produced a triple-double by pulling down 13 rebounds and dishing out 10 assists, while hitting 11-of-19 shots from the floor, including 6-of-8 from three-point range. The former Indiana Hoosier rebounded after converting 12 of his previous 50 attempts from Games 3 through 5.

Seven Pacers netted double-figures in Game 6, compared to only three Cavaliers on Friday. James did his thing by posting 22 points, but Kevin Love and J.R. Smith combined to score 16 points on 6-of-19 shooting, as no other Cleveland starter besides James put up double-figures. Indiana didn?t score more than 100 points in any of the first five games of the series prior to Friday?s outburst, while Cleveland was limited to below 100 points for the fifth time in the series.

Cleveland opened as a 5 ?-point favorite for Game 7 at BookMaker.eu and the number went to -6 quickly, which is what most betting shops are holding as of Saturday.

Chris David of VegasInsider.com believed Indiana would pull off this first round upset prior to the series and while he understands the LeBron factor and the inflated odds, he?s buying the Pacers again on Sunday.

He explained his position, ?I believed Indiana was the better overall team coming into this series and the club has proven that in the first six games. The Pacers have the edge in every statistical category, except free throws. It?s never been more apparent that the Cavaliers are a one-man show and unless LeBron is the highest scorer in the game, they don?t stand a chance to beat Indiana especially if the Pacers offense shows up. We?ve seen that happen in two games and that?s resulted in double-digit wins for Indiana. In the three defeats when the shots weren?t falling and LeBron was dominating, the Pacers still only lost those games by a combined 10 points.? David also believes that bettors should ignore history with LeBron-led teams and focus on who?s suiting up on Sunday for Cleveland.

?In LeBron?s career, he owns a 4-2 record in Game 7?s and that includes a 3-0 mark during his four-year stint with the Miami Heat. The other win came against Golden State in the 2016 NBA Finals when he had All-Star Kyrie Irving on the roster. With all due respect to Love, the Cavs don?t have any other All-Stars outside of LeBron and those two are the only players averaging double figures in this series while Indiana has six guys putting up 10-plus points. The two losses for LeBron in Game 7?s came in his early years with Cleveland and some pundits believe this year?s supporting cast is worse than those squads. I definitely agree with that statement and while I certainly wouldn?t be surprised to see another heroic effort from LeBron on Sunday, the Indiana money-line would still be my lean (+225) in Game 7.?

NBA handicapper Tony Mejia says the Cavaliers will need all the help they can get in Game 7, ?Besides James? gaudy production, only Love is averaging double-figures in points per game this postseason (11.0), but shooting less than 33 percent. The best thing that came out of the Game 6 blowout for Cleveland is that Rodney Hood and Jordan Clarkson got some time out there, because both must show up here in addition to Kyle Korver and Smith to keep the Pacers honest since they?ve managed not to double-team James but are using zoning principles to put multiple bodies in his area due to the Cavs? lack of offensive proficiency.?

The UNDER cashed in each of the first five games of this series prior to the OVER hitting in Game 6. The total closed at 201 ? for Game 6, but dropped over two points for Sunday?s Game 7 at 199 at most books.

Heading into Friday's Game 6, the Cavaliers put together a perfect 10-0 record in postseason close-out games since James returned to Cleveland in 2014. That undefeated mark is done, but James-led teams are 20-3 in the past 23 playoff contests with a chance to advance since 2012. All three losses came to the Pacers (on the road), as the last time James lost a home close-out game in the playoffs came in Game 5 of the 2008 opening round against Washington, 88-87.

Cleveland has not been to a Game 7 against an Eastern Conference opponent since the 2008 second round as the Cavaliers lost to the Celtics. Indiana fell short in its last Game 7 appearance, an 89-84 setback at Toronto in the 2016 opening round, but the Pacers cashed as six-point underdogs.

The last time the Cavaliers lost in the first round of the playoffs coincidentally came against the Pacers in 1998. The Pacers are looking to advance to the conference semifinals for the first time since 2014, as Indiana needed seven games to knock out Atlanta.

Looking ahead to the second round, the Raptors dropped two of three regular season meetings with the Cavaliers, while the Pacers lost three of four matchups with Toronto.

 

[Cnotes53]

Game 1 - Jazz at Rockets
April 28, 2018

Western Conference ? Game 1
Utah at Houston (ABC, 3:35 p.m. ET)

2017-18 Regular Season (Rockets 4-0)

Feb. 26 Rockets (-1) at Jazz 96-85 (Under 212)
Dec. 18 Rockets (-12) vs. Jazz 120-99 (Over 216.5)
Dec. 7 Rockets (-6) at Jazz 112-101 (Over 211)
Nov. 5 Rockets (-6.5) vs. Jazz 137-110 (Over 204.5)

The Rockets took their first step towards a conference finals showdown with the Warriors by knocking out the eighth-seeded Timberwolves in five games of the opening round. Houston faces Utah in the conference semifinals as the Jazz return to the second round for the second straight postseason after eliminating the star-laden Thunder in six games.

Houston won all three games at Toyota Center against Minnesota, all in the role of a double-digit favorite. The Rockets covered in two of those games, including in the Game 5 clincher on Wednesday, 122-104 as 11 ?-point chalk. Houston erased a slight four-point halftime deficit by outscoring Minnesota, 67-45, as James Harden and Clint Capela combined to score 50 points for the Rockets. The Rockets drilled 18 three-pointers in the series finale, while overcoming an 0-for-8 effort from long distance by Chris Paul.

Harden had his way with the Wolves for a majority of the series as the MVP candidate averaged 29 points per game to go along with 7.4 assists per contest. The only subpar performance for the Rockets? All-Star guard was Game 2, as Harden shot 2-of-18 from the floor, including 1-for-10 from three-point range. Harden helped the Rockets rebound from a Game 3 loss by scoring 22 points in Houston?s 50-point third quarter barrage of a 119-100 Game 4 triumph at Target Center.

Utah missed out on home-court advantage by losing the season finale at Portland, but it seemed to work out for the Jazz and not the Blazers. Portland was bounced in four games by New Orleans, while the Jazz topped the Thunder as rookie Donovan Mitchell had his coming out party in front of the national basketball audience.

The former Louisville standout posted 28.5 ppg in the six-game series against Oklahoma City, including a 38-point performance in Friday?s Game 6 clincher. The Jazz held off the Thunder, 96-91 and although they failed to cash as 6 ?-point favorites, Utah bounced back after blowing a 25-point lead in a Game 5 meltdown loss at Oklahoma City. Quin Snyder?s team is playing in the second round in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2007 and 2008, as the Jazz were swept in the semifinals last season by the Warriors.

However, the Jazz will be without the services of point guard Ricky Rubio, who is out at least 10 days with a left hamstring injury according to reports. Rubio suffered the injury in the first quarter of Friday?s win over the Thunder, as the Jazz posted a 4-1 record in the five games the Utah point guard missed this season.

The Rockets owned the Jazz this season by pulling off a four-game sweep, with all four wins coming by double-digits. One of Houston?s best offensive efforts of the season came in the first meeting with Utah at Toyota Center in early November, 137-110. Not only did the Rockets easily cash as six-point favorites, but Houston dropped a 48-point spot in the third quarter, while Harden poured in 56 points on 19-of-25 shooting from the floor.

One month later in Salt Lake City, the Rockets used a 37-point third quarter barrage to pull away from the Jazz, 112-101 to cover as six-point favorites. Harden was held to 29 points, but Ryan Anderson drilled five three-pointers and Paul put together a double-double with 18 points and 13 assists. Mitchell led Utah with 26 points, but Utah couldn?t overcome a 46-32 disadvantage on the boards.

Eleven days later and in the midst of a difficult six-game road swing, the Jazz fell to the Rockets for the third time in less than two months in a 120-99 setback. Utah had a golden opportunity to cash as hefty 12-point underdogs, as the Jazz led by five points heading into the fourth quarter. The Rockets turned on the jets in the final 12 minutes by outscoring Utah, 41-15 to grab the double-digit cover, as Eric Gordon was the catalyst off the Houston bench by hitting seven three-pointers and scoring 33 points.

In the final matchup on February 26 back in Salt Lake, the Jazz finally limited the Rockets to under 100 points, but Houston came away with a 96-85 triumph as one-point favorites. The two teams finished UNDER the total for the first time in four meetings, while the Rockets outscored the Jazz in the third quarter, 31-19 to erase five-point halftime deficit. Both teams shot 43% from the floor, while the Rockets knocked down only 9-of-33 attempts from long distance. Mitchell hit just one three-pointer in nine tries as the Jazz lost to the Rockets four times in the regular season for the first time since 1992-93.

The Rockets haven?t reached the conference finals since 2015, as Houston was bounced by San Antonio in the second round last season in six games. It?s been a hot minute for the Jazz in the conference finals, who last reached that stage in 2007 before bowing out to the Spurs in five games.

Houston and Utah haven?t met in the playoffs since 2008, as the Jazz eliminated the Rockets in six games of the first round. In fact, it was the second consecutive postseason in which Utah ended Houston?s season, as the Jazz finished off the Rockets in seven games in 2007.

VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia says the Jazz will need plenty of role players to step up if they want a chance to win, ?With Rubio unavailable for Game 1, the Jazz are going to face a transition when he does return, which limits how successful they can realistically be in the series. Jae Crowder got the most time against the Thunder, but Dante Exum, Royce O?Neale and Alec Burks are all options against Houston. Exum?s length could be a major asset against Paul and Harden, while O?Neale is likely to be called upon as the starters since he?s emerged as the top two-way alternative.?

Utah is listed as a double-digit underdog in Game 1 for only the third time this season. The Jazz own an 0-2 SU/ATS mark when receiving at least 10 points with the two losses coming to Houston on December 18 and Golden State in a 25-point defeat on December 27.

The Rockets failed to produce a profit as a favorite of 10 or more points this season by compiling an 11-18 ATS mark. However, Houston posted an 0-8 ATS ledger when laying at least 14 points, while going 6-5 ATS in its last 11 opportunities as a 10-point favorite or more since early March.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday's Best Bet
April 28, 2018

NBA Best Bet ? Game 7
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

In a league like the NBA where the common complaint among casual fans/bettors is that the league is too top heavy and the regular season and first few rounds of the playoffs don't mean much, it's nice to see us get a couple of Game 7's in Round 1 this year.

It was just back in 2016 that we had two Game 7's in Round 1 and the home team won both of those that year. In fact, pending the Milwaukee/Boston Game 7 result on Saturday, home teams in a Game 7 of a NBA playoff series are 84-23 SU all-time, and that includes a 17-6 SU record in Round 1.

So can Indiana, who have looked like the better ?team? for the majority of this series, thumb their nose at that history, and get by LeBron and company? It would be the first time ever that LeBron hasn't made it through the first round ? this Game 7 is the first time he's even facing elimination in Round 1 ? and it would make a lot of fans in Toronto happy knowing their beloved Raptors wouldn't have to deal with the Cavaliers potentially ending their season for the third straight year. So can Indiana actually do it all and be the first team to send LeBron home after Round 1?

Cleveland -5.5; Total set at 199

It's not that hard to say that Cleveland is actually extremely lucky to be tied 3-3 SU in this series as they've really just been a one-man show with LeBron. Cleveland's three wins in this series have come by a combined 10 points, whereas Indiana's Game 6 win alone tripled that margin with a 34-point win. On the whole, Indiana has outscored Cleveland by 44 points (7.33 per game) in this series and probably deserve to already have their tickets punched to Round 2.

But in a game like basketball when one dominant player can mean so much to the eventual outcome, Indiana finds themselves looking for one more complete team effort in shutting down LeBron. The Cavs have already shown that they don't really have anyone else that can beat Indiana in this series, and if LeBron isn't his usual ?great? self, we very well could see he and the Cavs sitting at home watching the rest of the playoffs.

Yet, winning a Game 7 on the road won't nearly be as easy as all that sounds, and for as dominant as Indiana's Game 6 performance was (56.3% from floor, 50% from three-point land), I doubt we come close to seeing it duplicated again. For one, there is that nasty history for visiting teams I mentioned earlier that the Pacers are going up against here, and giving LeBron a full 4th quarter to rest during the blowout Game 6 loss may not have been ideal. See losing by 20+ in the playoffs is not a regular occurrence for LeBron as it's only happened six times since his run of seven straight Finals appearances began in 2011, and only once outside of the NBA Finals themselves.

LeBron's teams are just 3-3 SU in the game's following a 20-point+ defeat, but all three wins have been by double-digits themselves. Oh and that lone non-NBA finals occurrence came in Game 1 of the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals against Chicago, and LeBron's then-Miami Heat squad bounced back with a 10-point win in Game 2.

Really, what it likely comes down to here is pick the outright winner of this game and nine times out of 10 you cover this spread. Obviously that strategy hasn't worked out well in this series to date regarding Cleveland's three wins, but it is still 4-2 ATS overall in this series and that's not exactly burning your bankroll.

And while many bettors got burned by Cleveland in Game 6 (myself included), I really have a tough time seeing them lose Game 7 at home and having LeBron watch the rest of the playoffs from his couch. The NBA doesn't particularly want that and we've already seen them gift James a non-call/call or two in this series ? the Game 5 goaltend anyone? - and when push comes to shove late here I've got to suspect LeBron and the Cavs will get the benefit of the doubt with the whistle late. After all, that does tend to happen for any home team in the NBA playoffs.

Furthermore, we've yet to really see a complete game from the entire Cavs team and bench players tend to be more reliable to produce at home too. With Indiana's most complete game as a team already in the rearview mirror (Game 6), the Pacers shooting percentages and overall production should drop dramatically in Game 7 from their dominant Game 6 performance, and for a team that came into the year expecting to win 30-35 games, taking a LeBron-led Cavaliers team to a Game 7 in the first round of the playoffs is already a huge moral victory for the 2017-18 Indiana Pacers.

But this is where the dream ends for Indiana fans, as a Cleveland/Toronto playoff series for the third year in a row is likely where we are headed next week. The notion that more and more bettors are jumping off the Cleveland ship given the Cavs 1-5 ATS record in this series has forced oddsmakers to put out the lowest number yet for a Cleveland home game in this series, and I've got no problem jumping all over it in this winner-take-all scenario.

Best Bet: Cleveland -5.5

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, April 29

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UTAH (52 - 36) at HOUSTON (69 - 18) - 4/29/2018, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against Northwest division opponents this season.
HOUSTON is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
UTAH is 98-66 ATS (+25.4 Units) on Sunday games since 1996.
UTAH is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
HOUSTON is 57-76 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 7-4 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 7-4 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (51 - 37) at CLEVELAND (53 - 35) - 4/29/2018, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 51-36 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) on Sunday games this season.
INDIANA is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 29-19 ATS (+8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
INDIANA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
INDIANA is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
CLEVELAND is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 20-46 ATS (-30.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 15-5 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 14-8 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
11 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, April 29

Pacers @ Cavaliers (3-3)
Oladipo was 11-19, scored 28 points in Game 6, after going 12-50 in Games 3-5. Indiana lost three of its last five road games, but they?ve covered five of six games in this series- their losses in series have been by 3-4-3 points. Cavaliers? other four starters were 8-25 from floor in Game 6; Lebron is one of best players ever, but he needs help. Home side won seven of last nine series games. Under is 7-1-1 those nine games. Pacers covered four of last five visits to Cleveland, going 2-3 SU. Under is 8-3 in Indiana?s last 11 games.

Jazz @ Rockets (0-0)
Utah PG Rubio (hamstring) is out here. Houston won/covered its last four games with the Jazz; Utah is 2-4 SU/ATS in its last six visits to Houston. Eight of last ten series games went over the total. Jazz eliminated Oklahoma City Friday night; they lost three of last four road games. Under is 5-3 in last eight series games. Rockets eliminated Minnesota in five games, winning Game 5 on Wednesday; Houston won four of its last six home games (3-3 vs spread). Rockets? last three games went over total. Under is 5-3 in Utah?s last eight games.

Pelicans-Warriors
GState 123-101, -7.5, O223.5

Wizards-Raptors
Tor 114-106, -7.5, O211
Tor 130-119, -7, O214
Wsh 122-103, -1, O217.5
Wsh 106-98, +1.5, U217
Tor 108-97, -7, U216
Tor 102-92, -2, U214.5
Raptors win series, 4-2

Heat-76ers
Phil 130-103, -6.5, O212
Mia 113-103, +6.5, U217
Phil 128-108, -2.5, O213.5
Phil 106-102, -4, U212.5
Phil 104-91, -10, U215.5
76ers win series, 4-1

Bucks-Celtics
Bos 113-107 OT, -4.5, O199.5
Bos 120-106, -1, O200
Mil 116-92, -5, O205.5
Mil 104-102, -5.5, O203.5
Bos 92-87, -4.5, U202.5
Mil 97-86, -4.5, U201.5
Bos 112-96, -4.5, O196
Celtics win series, 4-3

Pacers-Cavaliers
Ind 98-80, +7.5, U212.5
Clev 100-97, -8, U209
Ind 92-90, -1.5, U209.5
Clev 104-100, -1.5, U206.5
Clev 98-95, -6.5, U206
Ind 121-87, -1.5, O202

Spurs-Warriors
GState 113-92, -8, U209.5
GState 116-101, -9 O205.5
GState 110-97, -3.5, O205.5
SA 103-90, +5.5, U206.5
GState 99-91, -11, U204.5
Warriors win series, 4-1

Pelicans-Blazers
NO 97-95, +5.5, U216.5
NO 111-102, +6, U216
NO 119-102, -3.5, O215.5
NO 131-123, -6.5, O217
Pelicans win series, 4-0

Jazz-Thunder
OKC 116-108, -4.5, O205
Utah 102-95, +4, U206.5
Utah 115-102, -5, O209
Utah 113-96, -5, O208
OKC 107-99, -2.5, U207.5
Utah 96-91, ?7, U207.5
Jazz win series, 4-2

Wolves-Rockets
Hst 104-101, -11.5, U215.5
Hst 102-82, -10.5, U212.5
Minn 121-105, +6, O217
Hst 119-100, -6, O217
Hst 122-104, -12, O217
Rockets win series, 4-1




NBA

Sunday, April 29

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Trend Report
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Indiana Pacers
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 7 games
Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Indiana is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games on the road
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Indiana is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Indiana is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Indiana is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 9 games at home
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
Cleveland is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Indiana
Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Indiana
Cleveland is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Indiana


Utah Jazz
Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Utah is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Utah's last 10 games on the road
Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games when playing Houston
Utah is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston
Utah is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Houston is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Houston's last 24 games
Houston is 23-1 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Utah
Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Utah
Houston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing at home against Utah