Cnotes53 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

[Cnotes53]

Conference Finals Predictions
May 10, 2018

The NBA Conference Finals will begin this Sunday with the East leading off as Boston and Cleveland begin their best-of-seven matchup from TD Garden. One day later, the Toyota Center will host Game 1 between Houston and Golden State in the West matchup.

Throughout the 2018 playoffs our trio of NBA experts listed below have offered up their fearless predictions on every series and their records aren?t too shabby through 12 series (Exact Games).

Kevin Rogers: 9-3 (4)
Chris David: 9-3 (3)
Tony Mejia: 9-3 (3)

Below are each analyst?s predictions for the conference finals:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Matchup Kevin Rogers Chris David Tony Mejia

CAVS...........4 - 1.................4 - 3................4 - 2

2 Boston vs. 4 Cleveland

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Matchup Kevin Rogers Chris David Tony Mejia

WARRIORS.....4 - 2................4 - 2..............4 - 3

1 Houston vs. 2 Golden State


Analysis ? Kevin Rogers

Although the Celtics have yet to lose a home game in the postseason, Boston still has memories of dropping all three contests to Cleveland at TD Garden in last season?s Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavs have amassed three road wins in the playoffs, compared to Boston?s 1-4 mark on the highway with the only victory coming in overtime. The fact that LeBron James is playing the best basketball of his career along with seeking his eighth consecutive NBA Finals appearance, it?s hard to go against Cleveland in this series.

The last time both teams that didn?t own home-court advantage in the conference finals both made the NBA Finals was 2005 when the Spurs faced the Pistons. This can happen again in 2018 as the Warriors don?t have home-court advantage in a playoff round for the first time since 2014. However, Golden State has owned Houston in the playoffs by eliminating them in five games twice in the last four postseasons. Even though the Rockets have Chris Paul in their lineup, it will be tough for Houston to shut down this powerful Golden State offense for four victories.

Analysis ? Chris David

Even though I picked against the Cavaliers in each of the first two rounds, I?m flip-flopping for the conference finals and it?s because of the ?LeBron? factor. Nobody should be shocked to see Boston win the series, especially since they own the better defense and it has the homecourt edge. However as much respect as Brad Stevens gets for his schemes and game plans, he hasn?t been able to solve Cleveland and James. Since LeBron returned to Cleveland, the Celtics are 6-17 against the Cavaliers and that includes a 3-9 record at TD Garden. That record will eventually come into play and give Cleveland the confidence to advance to the finals.

I expect the Western Conference Finals to be competitive but believe Golden State will finish off Houston in six games. The Warriors have won 15 of the last 20 encounters between the pair and that includes a 4-1 win in the 2015 conference finals. While the addition of point guard Chris Paul has paid dividends for Houston, especially defensively, he just doesn?t match up well against the Warriors. When he was with the Clippers, the club went 2-14 against Golden State in his last four seasons with Los Angeles. After playing two teams (Minnesota, Utah) that can?t shoot from distance, the step up in class against the sharpshooters of Golden State will be too much for Houston.

Analysis ? Tony Mejia

LeBron James has been incredible, but the difference between Indiana and Toronto was entirely about the emergence of a supporting cast that wasn't ready to play when the postseason began. Kevin Love has gotten comfortable, while George Hill is now healthy and has been a major x-factor, emerging as by far the most valuable of Cleveland's midseason acquisitions. If Jordan Clarkson can be an x-factor in a positive way off the bench against a Celtics team that lacks point guard depth, that should provide a major lift in a series where the Cavs will need to hand Boston its first home playoff loss somewhere along the way in order to advance.

The Rockets are formidable and were put together specifically to beat the Warriors in a series. Guys are healthy and confident, so I do think that oddsmakers went overboard in setting the series prices here, offering around +160 to back the top seed. The Warriors are indeed my choice to advance since I trust them on both sides of the ball a little more than I do Houston, but I'd wait until they face some adversity in the series to make a move with more favorable odds. I've been on Golden State to win the title all season, being matched with Cleveland for a fourth straight time. There's no reason to deviate from that now.

 

[Cnotes53]

Game 1 - Cavaliers at Celtics
May 12, 2018

Eastern Conference ? Game 1
Cleveland at Boston (ABC, 3:35 p.m. ET)

2017-18 Regular Season (Cavaliers 2-1)
Feb. 11 Cavaliers (+4.5) at Celtics 121-99 (Over 213)
Jan. 3 Celtics (-3) vs. Cavaliers 102-88 (Under 212.5)
Oct. 17 Cavaliers (-4.5) vs. Celtics 102-99 (Under 214)

For the second consecutive season, the Cavaliers and Celtics will meet for a berth in the NBA Finals. Many faces are different from both squads heading into this series, but the one thing that remains the constant is the dominance of LeBron James as he seeks an eighth consecutive Eastern Conference championship.

Cleveland escaped past Indiana in seven games of the opening round to face top-seeded Toronto in the conference semifinals. The entire series shifted in Game 1 as the Cavaliers erased an early 14-point deficit to force overtime and knock off the Raptors, 113-112 as seven-point underdogs. Cleveland went on to rout Toronto in Game 2 behind James? 43-point effort, a buzzer-beater from James in Game 3, followed by a 35-point victory to finish off the sweep in four games.

The Cavaliers failed to cover in their first five home games of the playoffs, but easily cashed as five-point favorites in Game 4. However, Tyronn Lue?s team owns a 3-2 ATS record away from Quicken Loans Arena in the postseason, while Cleveland has compiled an incredible 15-4 SU road mark against Eastern Conference opponents in the playoffs since 2016.

The Celtics also needed seven games to advance past the first round as Boston knocked out Milwaukee in seven games. It only took five games for the Celtics to reach their second straight conference finals after beating the up-and-coming 76ers, 4-1. Boston improved to 7-0 at home in the playoffs after edging Philadelphia, 114-112 in the series clincher on Wednesday as rookie standout Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 26 points.

Prior to the season, the Celtics acquired All-Star guard Kyrie Irving from the Cavaliers for Isaiah Thomas. Neither player is the reason these teams reached this point as Irving has been sidelined since mid-March with a knee injury, while Thomas was dealt to the Lakers at the trade deadline. Irving is still the focal point of the Celtics? franchise, but Tatum along with Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier have been carrying Boston throughout this playoff run.

While James has been the go-to option for the Cavaliers, four different Celtics are averaging over 16 points per game in the playoffs. Tatum (18.8), Rozier (18.2), Al Horford (17.0), and Brown (16.9) are looking to be the group to prevent Cleveland from making a fourth straight NBA Finals appearance, while also trying to erase the Cavaliers? dominance over the Celtics since Brad Stevens arrived as head coach in Boston.

Stevens has done wonders in Beantown to revive the Celtics? rebuild over the years, but Boston hasn?t gotten over the hump against Cleveland in the postseason. In 2015, the Cavaliers swept the Celtics out of the opening round in Stevens? first playoff appearance. Boston finished below .500 that season, but made the leap two years later to 53 wins and the top seed in the Eastern Conference. However, the Cavaliers bounced the Celtics in five games of the Eastern Finals last season, including three victories by double-digits at TD Garden.

The Celtics had their season ended by the Cavaliers in 2017 and had the good fortune of opening this season with a trip to Cleveland. Not only was it the homecoming for Irving in his first game in a Celtics? jersey, but Boston also showcased offseason acquisition Gordon Hayward in its starting lineup. Hayward?s season ended in five minutes with a gruesome leg injury on a failed alley-oop attempt, while the Celtics fell short in a 102-99 defeat as 4 ?-point underdogs.

Boston picked up revenge in the next matchup at TD Garden on January 3 as the Celtics defeated the Cavs, 102-88 as three-point favorites. Irving was limited to 11 points on 5-of-14 shooting, but Rozier burned Cleveland for 20 points off the bench, including four three-pointers. James led the Cavs with 19 points, but Cleveland was limited to 35% shooting from the floor, while hitting 8-of-32 three-point attempts.

The Cavaliers overhauled their roster on February 8 and put it to the Celtics three days later in Boston, 121-99. Seven Cavaliers finished in double-figures as Jordan Clarkson and Rodney Hood combined for 32 points in their Cleveland debuts. Tatum and Brown managed only 14 points between them, while Boston knocked down 10-of-38 attempts from downtown.

Chris David of VegasInsider.com believes Cleveland will win a hard-fought series but beating Boston at TD Garden won?t be easy.

He explained, ?Even though the line is short, it?s hard to ignore what Boston has done as a home underdog (9-1 SU, 10-0 ATS) this season. This particular group of players feed off the crowd on both ends of the court and that?s showed in the playoffs as the Celtics are undefeated in seven games. Cleveland has fought through adversity on the road in this year?s playoffs and the close-call victories over both Indiana and Toronto in the first two rounds were very impressive. However if the shots aren?t falling from the outside then it spells a lot of trouble for the Cavaliers. Especially when you realize that Cleveland has gone 1-7 in their last eight road playoff games when held under 100 points and that includes two losses to the Pacers in the first round.?

The total for Game 1 opened as high as 205 ? and has settled to 204 as of Saturday. David weighed in on the total.

He said, ?These numbers will fluctuate as the series plays out and I wouldn?t be surprised to see a total listed in the nineties if Boston?s defense comes to play. That unit did its job against the 76ers, holding them to 30 percent from 3-point land but they?ll be facing a confident Cavs squad that couldn?t miss (41%) against the Raptors.?

?While I don?t put as much stock into the Celtics offense, you can?t ignore the numbers that they?ve produced at home in the playoffs under head coach Brad Stevens. They?ve put up triple digits in six of seven at home this postseason and that?s translated into a 6-1 ?over? mark. Since Stevens took over, the ?over? has gone 15-7 (68%) in playoff games at TD Garden,? David added.

NBA expert Tony Mejia breaks down what Cleveland?s supporting cast needs to do to be successful, ?Between April 15 and May 1, Kevin Love averaged 10.9 points and shot less than 32 percent from the field (30-for-94) over his first eight playoff games. In Cleveland?s last three wins against Toronto, he went for 25 points per game on 54 percent shooting, doing so without filling it up from 3-point range. If he?s over playing tentatively because he didn?t feel 100 percent, the Cavs may very well deserve to be as heavy a favorite in this series as oddsmakers think they should be.?

The Cavaliers opened as a -260 favorite on the series price at Sportsbook.ag, while the Celtics sit at +220 odds to win this series. To put it in perspective compared to last season?s Eastern Conference Finals, Cleveland was listed as a -550 favorite, compared to Boston at +420 as the Celtics owned home-court advantage both times.

 

[Cnotes53]

Cavs, Celtics ready for ECF rematch
May 12, 2018

BOSTON (AP) The jerseys and venues will be the same, but so much has changed since the last time Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics met in the Eastern Conference finals.

Kyrie Irving was dealt to Boston in a blockbuster offseason deal for Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder. But following a roster upheaval in February , the Cavs were left with only five players from last year's team that rolled past the Celtics 4-1 to earn a place in the NBA Finals.

Irving will watch this year's rematch from the sideline after a pair of knee surgeries late in the regular season denied him an opportunity to play this postseason. It was the capstone of an injury-plagued year in Boston that also saw the seasons of Gordon Hayward and rookie Daniel Theis truncated.

The one constant has been Cleveland's LeBron James, who at age 33 has again found another gear in the playoffs despite the different pieces surrounding him. His 34.3 scoring average in these playoffs is his highest since the 2009 postseason.

James can become the sixth player in league history to play in at least eight consecutive NBA Finals. The five others who have done so all played with the Celtics, led by Hall of Famer Bill Russell's run of 10 straight appearances.

James hasn't yet had a chance to reflect on his own run but says he isn't taking anything for granted at this point in his career.

''You dream about being able to play in big games in the NBA and even when I got to the NBA that was one of my only goals to be as great as I can be, to play in big games in the NBA and be remembered and I think I've done that in my career,'' he said. ''Just trying to add onto it while I can.''

The series starts Sunday in Boston. This is the eighth playoff matchup between the teams overall, with the Celtics leading 4-3.

The Celtics are seeking their first trip to the NBA Finals since 2010, when they got past James and the Cavs in the East semifinals.

Since Irving's injury, Celtics coach Brad Stevens has relied heavily on veteran Al Horford and a youthful corps that includes 24-year-olds Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart, 21-year-old Jaylen Brown and 20-year-old rookie Jayson Tatum.

Horford is averaging career playoff-high 17 points per game, while carrying the leadership torch.

Rozier has flourished in a starting role since Irving was sidelined in mid-March. It's carried over into the postseason where he is averaging 18.2 points per game. And Tatum is coming of a series against Philadelphia that saw him average 23.6 points per game - the second-highest by a Celtics rookie in franchise history.

''I feel like we more together (than last year),'' Rozier said. ''Obviously guys been going down all year and it's like you never know who's going to down. But we found a way, we pulled together.''

As for Rozier's prediction for the series?

''Stay tuned,'' he said.

Some other things of note in the Eastern Conference finals:

BUCKEYE ROOTS

Like James, Rozier first bounced a ball in Northeast Ohio.

Rozier is from Shaker Heights, Ohio, a suburb on Cleveland's east side. He's been on James' hoops radar since he was a high school freshman. And while Rozier has been a breakout star in these playoffs to NBA fans, James knew he would eventually shine.

''He was a confident kid then when I watched him at Shaker. And he's a confident player now, so I'm not surprised,'' James said. ''He's gotten better and better. It was a steal when they drafted him out of Louisville, and he's just showcasing his abilities. ... So, everybody is going crazy over what he's doing but I'm not. He's a local guy.''

(TD) GARDEN PARTY

Boston has become a preferred spring destination for James.

After a 2-9 start to his playoff career in New England, James has won his six straight postseason games on the road against the Celtics, a streak that began with his epic 45-point, 15-rebound performance in Game 6 for Miami in the 2012 conference finals. In those six wins, James averaged 34.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists.

James has averaged 30.5 points, 8.8 rebounds and 6.1 assists while going 8-9 on Boston parquet's hardwood.

Since losing two straight series with Cleveland to Boston in 2008 and 2010, James has eliminated the Celtics four times, going 8-1 in the past two matchups.

CELTIC PRIDE

Indiana pushed Cleveland to seven games in the opening round. The Pacers were physical, resilient and confident.

The Cavs feel the young Celtics might be a greater challenge.

''Boston is better than Indiana,'' Cavs forward Kyle Korver said. ''With as much respect as we have for Indiana, obviously, they took us to seven, I think defensively Boston is elite. They're really good. They're always in the right spot. They have a great game plan.

''For sure the Indiana series has prepared us for the playoffs in a lot of ways. Now that we're through that series, we're glad.''

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA Conference Finals preview capsules
May 12, 2018

Capsules for NBA's conference finals that start Sunday in the East, Monday in the West:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

No. 2 BOSTON CELTICS (55-27, 8-4) vs. No. 4 CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (50-32, 8-3)

Season series: Cavaliers, 2-1.

Story line: Cleveland's LeBron James is one round away from his eighth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals, and it's an East finals rematch between two franchises that look incredibly different than they did 12 months ago. Kyrie Irving went from Cleveland to Boston last summer; his season is over because of a knee injury. Isaiah Thomas went from Boston to Cleveland in that deal; his season is over because he's long moved on from the Cavs. It's two teams that were written off plenty of times this season, yet here they are again.

How They Got Here: Boston beat No. 7 Milwaukee 4-3 and No. 3 Philadelphia 4-1. Cleveland beat No. 5 Indiana 4-3 and No. 1 Toronto 4-0.

Key Matchup: Boston's Al Horford vs. Cleveland's Kevin Love. James is going to be great; that's a given. The Cavs will need their second-best player to be great as well, or else that opens the door for Celtics coach Brad Stevens to preying on weaknesses.

Prediction: Cavaliers in 6.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 HOUSTON ROCKETS (65-17, 8-2) vs. No. 2 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (58-24, 8-2)

Season series: Rockets, 2-1.

Story line: The matchup seemed inevitable. The Rockets went out and got Chris Paul, with hopes of being the team that ends Golden State's three-year stranglehold on the Western Conference crown. Houston has the home-court edge, sure, but the Warriors have won at least one road game in 17 consecutive playoff series. Golden State is bidding for a third title in four years, and the Rockets are an absurd 50-5 when Paul, James Harden and Clint Capela play in the same game.

How They Got Here: Houston beat No. 8 Minnesota 4-1 and No. 5 Utah 4-1. Golden State beat No. 7 San Antonio 4-1 and No. 6 New Orleans 4-1.

Key Matchup: Golden State's Kevin Durant vs. Houston's Trevor Ariza. The backcourt matchup - Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson for the Warriors, Paul and Harden for the Rockets - will be unbelievable. But Ariza is going to have to find a way to keep Durant in some sort of check, especially it seems like Curry is back to normal after his knee injury.

Prediction: Warriors in 6.

 

[Cnotes53]

Eastern Conference Outlook
May 11, 2018

Do We Dare Doubt The Celtics?

We?ve been in this situation before with Boston. They?re up against yet another superstar in a playoff series they have no business competing in given their injury tattered roster. After dealing with a handful of Giannis Antetokounmpo over seven games, and then actively shutting down Ben Simmons and the Philadelphia 76ers in a great performance, the Boston Celtics now stare down the barrel of a shotgun named LeBron James.

The easy route here is to just say that the Celtics don?t have the horses to keep up with the Cavaliers, who are coming off a sweep of the mentally shattered Toronto raptors. Normally, the series with the best player usually wins out in the NBA playoffs. But as I said, the Celtics have overcome the odds so far. It?s not as simple as saying that the Cavaliers are going to rip through them.

Playoff basketball is a completely different animal, and one that Brad Stevens has seemingly figured out how to tame. It?s one thing to take out a mismanaged Bucks team, or the young and inexperienced Sixers. The downside is that the Celtics have played 13 games. The upside is that they?ve fine tooled their new-look set over the course of 13 action packed games.

Dealing with LeBron James is a different kettle of wild beasts, but this Celtics squad is groomed for this moment. Born through hellfire, so to speak.

The oddsmakers have determined that the longer the series goes on, the more it favors the Boston Celtics. Their series odds get stronger as the series moves along, with a Win in 7 games posting the strongest number overall at +650. Cleveland is the heavy favorite overall, as you can tell by the futures.

Eastern Conference Series Exact Game Outcome Odds -

Cleveland Win in 6 +300
Cleveland Win in 5 +400
Cleveland Win in 4 +500
Cleveland Win in 7 +500
Boston Win in 7 +650
Boston Win in 6 +1000
Boston Win in 5 +1200
Boston Win in 4 +2500

If there?s anything that you should keep in mind, it?s that we?ve only seen this Cavaliers team for basically five games. They emerged from the Pacers series born anew, and then lined up against a Toronto team that they have complete confidence against. What we haven?t seen is the Cavaliers come unhinged, or put up against the wall. And it can happen. This is the playoffs, after all.

One of the reasons that people are so up in arms about the Raptors getting swept is that the Cavaliers are imperfect. It?s true that they have seemingly morphed back in to their 2016 NBA Champion form, with the same players. But if there?s a flaw in their game Stevens is going to dig it out and bring it to the surface.

The largest issue for the Cavaliers remains their interior defence. They allowed 50, 62, 42 and 52 points in the paint against Toronto. It?s a weakness that Toronto rarely exposed, and one that they also had. Boston doesn?t necessarily present themselves as a team that can really dominate on the inside, but they absolutely have the weapons.

The Celtics ranked 28th in percentage of points in the paint with just 38.3 percent. That?s because they were largely designed as a perimeter team with Kyrie Irving. It requires a big gear change, but it?s one that the Celtics are capable of. Al Horford is coming off a sneaky remarkable series where he dominated Joel Embiid. He has absolutely taken the mantle as the go-to guy for the Celtics.

And where Toronto lacked any semblance of a game plan to exploit the Cavaliers? soft perimeter and interior defence, the Celtics are not going to shy away. From the incredible development of Scary Terry Rozier, the continued brilliance of the Jay?s (Brown and Tatum) and the always incredible outbursts from Marcus Smart, there?s plenty of weapons here.

Cleveland is a bigger, more experienced team with a loaded canon in the form of LeBron James. He?s not the issue. Nor is Kevin Love. It?s the remainder of the team.

Boston doesn?t just beat you straight up ? they spread you thin by always assaulting with five capable scorers. If Cleveland runs J.R. or Korver out there too long, the Celtics will slither through the holes that they provide defensively.

Mentally, the Celtics are way stronger than the fragile Raptors and that?s an important component to this series. With Kyrie Irving, they would have the x-factor they need to put the Cavaliers to task (and oh the drama!), but even without him they?re not a team you can just put to bed before the series even starts. But they have Brad Stevens and that has proven to be rocket fuel for them.

Eastern Conference Schedule
Game 1 ? Cleveland at Boston (Sun, 5/13)
Game 2 ? Cleveland at Boston (Tues, 5/18)
Game 3 ? Boston at Cleveland (Sat (5/19)
Game 4 ? Boston at Cleveland (Mon, 5/21)
Game 5 ? Cleveland at Boston (Wed, 5/23)
Game 6 ? Boston at Cleveland (Fri, 5/25)
Game 7 ? Cleveland at Boston (Sun, 5/27)

I?m not entirely convinced that Cleveland is this unstoppable juggernaut. You might be and that?s totally fair. I?m just not inclined to lean away from Boston just yet. They?re a heftier spread bet than you might naturally assume, and by the way they have home court advantage.

Toronto was a weak and pathetic excuse of a playoff team that shriveled in the moment. They were outplayed, and under-coached. Boston has such an intangible with Stevens? approach to the game.

All I?m saying is that we?ve only had four games of this Cleveland team. Maybe five if you include Game 7 against Indiana. They?ve been on a roll, and if there?s anyone on the planet who can muck up the gears of the Cavaliers, it?s the Celtics and Brad Stevens.

Again, if you?re happily convinced that LeBron James is King, you?re entitled to that opinion. I just think that there?s a way to score on the defensively inept Cavaliers. Oladipo did it. The Celtics can too. I?m more convinced that Boston can steal a few games in this series than most, and that?s largely because I?m resisting the natural urge to fall under the spell of LeBron.

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But I have 13 games of proof that the Celtics are a legit threat, and I have an entire season of the Cavaliers in-fighting, laying down and being victims of their own reliance on LeBron. This is not a perfect team. This is not a team that you should be comfortable on. If you?re going to bet on Cleveland, they?re most likely to win in 6. And if you?re going to swing the other way, it will take seven games for Boston to rip the mantle.

My choice is to play it safe, and bet on two futures that share similar odds. This allows me to sit back and marvel at either the spectacle that is LeBron James, or the genius of Brad Stevens at the same time.

Eastern Conference Series Prediction: Series Ends Game 6 (+225) or 7 (+240)

 

[Cnotes53]

Celtics, Cavs clash Sunday
May 10, 2018
By Tom Wilkinson

Game 1 - Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics begin the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday afternoon at TD Garden, with the Cavaliers a slight favorite to win Game 1.

The Cavaliers feature LeBron James who will be trying to reach the NBA Finals for the eighth straight season, while the Celtics have overcome the loss of Kyrie Irving to reach the Eastern Conference Finals. Let?s look at Game 1 on Sunday and NBA picks.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Date and Time: Sunday, May 13, 2018, 3:30 p.m. Eastern
Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
NBA Odds Cavaliers -1, Total 205
Cavaliers vs. Celtics TV Coverage: ABC

The Celtics have the home court advantage in this series, but the Cavaliers are nearly a 3-1 favorite to win the series. Cleveland is also a slight favorite to win Game 1. There are two reasons the Cavaliers are such heavy favorites to win the series even though they don?t have the home court edge. First, the sportsbooks have a liability on the Cavaliers, so they are looking to attract Boston money. Second, the Cavaliers have the best player in the series in LeBron James who is averaging 34.3 points per game in the playoffs.

This is the second straight season the Cavaliers and Celtics will be meeting in the Eastern Conference Finals. Neither team looks much like they did a year ago, as only nine of the 24 players who were in last year?s East Finals are playing this time around. Cleveland has two solid scoring options in James and Kevin Love, while the Celtics rely on Jayson Tatum and Terry Rozier.

This series really comes down to whether or not Boston can slow down LeBron. Marcus Morris will likely get the bulk of the work against LeBron and Morris did well against Ben Simmons in the last round. Morris is a physical player who will try and keep LeBron in check, but no one can guard LeBron. Morris didn?t stop LeBron in two regular season meetings and he isn?t going to stop him in this series. Morris will need a lot of help.

Key Player

We could go on and on about LeBron, but everyone already knows he is unstoppable. The key in this series is slowing him down. The key player who might be able to slow down LeBron is not Morris, but Al Horford. He has gone up against LeBron a lot and he has played him tough. He will be counted on heavily to give help on LeBron. Horford will also have to handle Kevin Love. If Horford can make Love a non-factor and give some help on LeBron, then the Celtics have a chance to win this series and Game 1.

Key Stats

The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Boston. The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Celtics are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing with three or more days of rest.

If you are looking to play the total you should know that the Over is 5-1 in the Cavaliers last 6 overall. The Over is 5-2 in the Cavaliers last 7 road games. The Over is 16-5 in the Celtics last 21 home games.

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Free Picks

The Cavaliers have LeBron, but the Celtics have home court and they have the better coach in this series in Brad Stevens. Can Stevens find a way to slow down LeBron and win Game 1? There is no question that the value is on Boston, as they are unbeaten at home in the playoffs and yet they are getting points in Game 1 on Sunday. We?ll take the Celtics to win Game 1. There should also be some excellent value on the total, as the Cavaliers don?t play much defense and the trends point to a high scoring game. We?ll also take the game to go over the total.

Cavaliers vs. Celtics ATS Pick: Celtics and Over the total
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Score Prediction: Celtics 108, Cavaliers 105

 

[Cnotes53]

Celtics' Stevens remains humble as team continues to thrive
May 11, 2018

WALTHAM, Mass. (AP) When Brad Stevens accepted the Celtics head coaching job five years ago, he didn't allow himself to get caught up in thinking about how he could add his name to the franchise's rich history.

He was too busy trying to figure out how to avoid being buried under it.

''You realize that if you're going to break records here, you're probably going to break bad ones,'' he recently said. ''Because none of the good ones are reachable.''

While achieving Red Auerbach status may not be on Stevens' radar, in just his fifth season there's no question the 41-year-old is also beyond being the wide-eyed former Butler University coach who arrived in Boston.

In a timeframe that has often already swallowed up most first-time NBA coaches, he's managed to endear himself to a championship-driven city by helping Boston make an improbable run back to the Eastern Conference finals.

The Celtics seemingly had their championship hopes derailed following the season-ending injuries to both of their offseason additions in Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving.

Yet, Boston won 55 games during the regular season and increased its win total for the fifth consecutive season under Stevens.

Despite having a roster that was down to just 11 healthy players by the end of their second-round win over Philadelphia, the Celtics enter their conference finals rematch with Cleveland on Sunday with a 7-0 record at home this postseason.

They are also the first team in NBA history to make it back to this point without their leading scorer from the regular season (Irving).

Most of the NBA community was taken aback after Stevens failed to receive a single vote from his peers when the National Basketball Coaches Association gave out its coach of the year award. The honor went to Toronto's Dwane Casey, who was fired Thursday after his team was swept in the East semifinals by the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Stevens has always downplayed the attention placed on coaching awards. He said that he thought Casey deserved the honor and didn't expect him to be without a job for long.

Boston's successes this season aside, Stevens said comfort remains a commodity this profession.

''I don't think that I would ever define anybody in the coaching or playing shoes probably as comfortable,'' he said. ''You're just focused on what's next. But it is basketball. There's only so much you can do.''

But it's also clear that one of the reasons that Casey lost his job was the Raptors' inability to challenge the Cavs in the postseason. Toronto was also swept out of the playoffs by Cleveland last season.

Most of the credit for Boston's run thus far surely belongs to veteran Al Horford and the Celtics' corps of young players, including Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown and rookie Jayson Tatum.

Stevens agrees with that assessment and has remained true to his style by blending into the background in public, instead waiting for the huddle or practice to make his voice heard.

He believes his team's mental toughness and grit have carried it more than anything he's done.

Horford said Stevens hasn't shied away from putting their young players in pressure situations.

''I think a lot of our guys have been thrown into the fire. I think it's been designed that way so guys can just develop and learn as they go,'' Horford said. ''But I think that one of the things that helps them is the way that coach helps them prepare and the way that he teaches them the game.''

There is also at least one person watching from afar who thinks a lot of the credit belongs to Stevens. And it just happens to be the same player he will spend the next few weeks trying to stop: LeBron James.

From Stevens' ability to draw up plays out of timeouts, to his management of late-clock situations, to getting the best out of his roster, James has long been a fan.

''I think they are one of the most well-coached teams in our league,'' James said. ''No matter who has played for them, he can put guys in position to succeed and get the most out of whoever has been in their lineup over the past few years. It's not just this year.''

Stevens said he's focused on living in the moment.

''From our standpoint, I feel like it's been a lot of fun,'' he said. ''We talked about it prior to the playoffs; nobody should love a challenge more, nobody should have more fun doing it. I think our guys have done a good job with that.''

And though he may never say it, so has their coach.

 

[Cnotes53]

Updated 2018 NBA Playoffs betting stats heading into conference finals:

Home Teams:
46-18 Straight Up
35-28-1 ATS (55.55%)

Favorites:
49-15 Straight Up
37-26-1 ATS (58.73%)

Over-Under: 32-32

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA Eastern Conference final Game 1 betting preview and odds: Cavaliers at Celtics

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (+1.5, 204)

The Boston Celtics have thrived as underdogs and they get a chance to relish the role again when they take on the almighty LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the best-of-seven Eastern Conference final for the second straight season, beginning with Game 1 on Sunday in Boston. The NBA Playoffs betting odds have Cleveland pegged as a 1.5-point road favorite with the total at 204 points.

James steamrolled through the first two rounds of the playoffs while averaging 34.3 points, 9.4 rebounds and nine assists, throwing in a pair of buzzer-beaters along the way. Cleveland went 3-1 ATS in its four-game sweep of Toronto after covering just once in its six games against Indiana.

"I haven't reflected on it," James told reporters when asked about the opportunity to reach the NBA Finals for an eighth straight time. "But I do know that this is my eighth straight conference finals, and I have an opportunity to play for a championship if I'm able to be successful in this conference finals, so I don't take that for granted."

Standing in his way is an inspiring bunch in Boston that took care of the Philadelphia 76ers in five games in the semifinals, riding a much more balanced attack led by rookie Jayson Tatum (23.6 points per game versus the 76ers). Point guard Terry Rozier has become a star since replacing injured All-Star and former Cavalier Kyrie Irving, as "Scary Terry" is averaging 18.2 points in the playoffs while guiding a gritty group.

"We weren't gonna lay down for nobody, no matter who was counting us out," Rozier told reporters of the postseason run. "We weren't going to just let the teams come in and punk us. We were the No. 2 seed for a reason. With injuries, without, we were the No. 2 seed, so obviously we were doing something great all season. ... We'd rather [the media] count us out. We don't want anybody on our side now. We're doing good and we play better when our back is against the wall."

Boston went 4-1 ATS in the five games versus Philadelphia and is 9-3 ATS in the playoffs heading into the Eastern Conference finals.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

SERIES PRICE (PER BET365): Cleveland -300/Boston +240

LINE HISTORY: Boston opened as at -1.5 at some sportsbooks and money on the road side moved the spread over the fence to Cleveland -1.5. The total opened at 205.5 points and has been bet down to 204 points.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We had Cleveland as a 1-point favorite over Boston in our initial line. There has been early action on the Cavaliers with both the sharps and the public backing Cleveland. We think the line will finish closer to a pick 'em though, as sharp money puts their trust in Brad Stevens' coaching skills and the Celtics' big home-court advantage. The total has had some movement too. We opened it at 205 and saw a strong push towards the Under due to a couple of our sharp players. The line has risen a bit since then, but it is still less than what we opened at." -- Jacob Crossman, odds analyst BetDSI.eu.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both teams pulled series upsets in the previous round to set up a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Finals which Cleveland won 4-1. The Celtics now hold home court advantage and have the better head coach and defense, but Cleveland still has the best player with LeBron James." -- Steve Merril.

INJURY REPORT: Boston - J. Tatum (Probable, Hand), S. Larkin (Doubtful, Shoulder)

MATCHUP CHART:

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (58-35 SU, 36-56-1 ATS, 44-47-2 O/U): Kevin Love averaged 22.6 points and 12.4 rebounds in last season's conference finals against Boston and seems primed to help out James after finishing the second-round sweep of the Toronto Raptors in fine fashion. The 29-year-old scored at least 21 points in each of the final three games of that series after averaging 10.9 points on 31.9 percent shooting in his first eight contests this postseason, a stretch which drew some criticism in Cleveland. "You see it every day, whether it's politics or sports or pop culture," Love told the media of the fan reaction to his slump. "There's this 24-hour news cycle and there has to be some sort of story. Like I said after Game 2 [against the Raptors], 'I didn't forget how to play basketball.' Sometimes it's a bad matchup. I was missing some uncharacteristic shots. But there were other things I was doing out there. It's not I just forgot how to play."

ABOUT THE CELTICS (63-31 SU, 59-33-2 ATS, 51-42-1 O/U): The Celtics struggled to slow down James in the one-sided matchup last spring - won by Cleveland in five games - but they feel they have more men to throw at him this time around. "With this group, we have more depth in [the perimeter] positions, suited more to guard LeBron," big man Al Horford told the media. "We have a lot more bodies to take on that challenge." Horford, who will be one of the many players to mark James at one time or another, is averaging 17 points on 57.8 percent shooting in the playoffs.

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Boston.
* Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Celtics are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.
* Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Boston.
* Road team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.

CONSENSUS:

There are 57 percent of pointspread bets on the Cavaliers while 71 percent of total bets are siding with the Over.

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, May 13


Cleveland @ Boston

Game 733-734
May 13, 2018 @ 3:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
121.777
Boston
124.358
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 2 1/2
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
Pick
205
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, May 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (58 - 35) at BOSTON (63 - 31) - 5/13/2018, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 21-48 ATS (-31.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
BOSTON is 57-33 ATS (+20.7 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home games this season.
BOSTON is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a division game this season.
BOSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games in all playoff games this season.
BOSTON is 22-5 ATS (+16.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-7 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 11-4 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, May 13

Cleveland @ Boston
Cavaliers won four of last five games with Boston; they?re 5-2 vs spread in last seven visits to Beantown. Under is 6-4 in last ten series games. Cleveland swept Toronto four straight after beating the Pacers in seven games; they?re 3-2 vs spread in their last five road games. Five of their last six games went over. Celtics also needed seven games to win their first round series; they beat Philly in five games last round. Boston won/covered its last eight home games. Over is 8-4 in their playoff games.




NBA

Sunday, May 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Boston
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 11 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Celtics
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Boston's last 16 games
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Boston's last 11 games at home
Boston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 11 games when playing at home against Cleveland

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, MAY 13
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLE at BOS 03:30 PM

CLE -2.0

U 205.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Celtics take Game 1, rip Cavs by 25
May 13, 2018

BOSTON (AP) The assignment for Boston Celtics forward Marcus Morris in his first start this postseason was easy to explain but nearly impossible to execute.

His job: Guard LeBron James, and keep the four-time NBA MVP from running the Celtics out of their own gym in the Eastern Conference finals for the second year in a row.

''He's obviously the best player in the game,'' said Morris, who during the week boasted that he was up to the challenge and on Sunday explained why he wanted it.

''Because I'm a competitor. He's the best player, and I'm going to be able to tell my kids this one day.''

Morris scored 21 points and added 10 rebounds while pestering James into a playoff-high seven turnovers - and a playoff-low 15 points - and the Celtics opened a 21-point, first-quarter lead to scorch Cleveland 108-83 in Game 1.

Jaylen Brown scored 23 points and Al Horford had 20 for Boston, which ran off 17 points in a row in the first and never allowed the Cavaliers within single digits again. The Celtics led by 28 when Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue pulled James for good with 7:09 left.

Game 2 is Tuesday night.

''I have zero level of concern at this stage,'' said James, who was 5 for 16 from the floor and missed all five 3-point attempts.

''I've been down before in the postseason, but for me there's never any level of concern - no matter how bad I played tonight, with seven turnovers, how inefficient I was shooting the ball,'' he said. ''We have another opportunity to be better as a ball club coming in Tuesday night, and we'll see what happens.''

Kevin Love had 17 points and eight rebounds, and James added nine assists and seven boards. The Cavaliers missed their first 14 3-point attempts of the game and shot just 32 percent in the first half.

By that time, Boston led 61-35 - the biggest halftime playoff deficit in James' career.

''I think we're very alert to the fact that we'll get a heavyweight punch on Tuesday night,'' Celtics coach Brad Stevens said. ''It's another great challenge, another great opportunity to experience something for this team.''

With injured stars Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving on the bench in street clothes, the Celtics continued their stunning run this season with what may have been the most surprising turn of events yet. A year after dropping the first two games at home against Cleveland in a five-game East final, the Celtics pounced on James, and the favored Cavaliers were never really in it.

''The last couple of playoffs, and our meeting at the end of year, they blew us out of the water,'' Boston guard Marcus Smart said. ''We've got a different team, just like they do, and a lot of younger guys. So for them to see that, and have that feeling like we did tonight, is huge.''

TIP-INS

Cavaliers: Kyle Korver's 3-pointer with nine minutes left in the third period was their first after missing 14 in a row. It cut the deficit from 28 points to 65-40. ... Tristan Thompson had eight points and 11 rebounds.

Celtics: The Celtics improved to 8-0 at home this postseason. They do not have to win on the road to reach the NBA Finals. ... Boston's 36-18 lead at the end of one quarter was the second-largest in a playoff game in franchise history.

GET HYPED

The Celtics took the floor to a hype video that began with the broadcast of Hayward's injury in the first quarter of the first game, at Cleveland. A variety of commentators predicted the team's demise, including Hall of Famer Charles Barkley saying: ''Their season's over.''

As more players went down to injury - including Irving, who came over from the Cavaliers last summer but was done for the season in March - the prophesies grew even gloomier.

But there the Celtics were, back in the Eastern Conference finals against the Cavaliers for the second year in a row - with Hayward, Irving, Daniel Theis and Shane Larkin all injured and Stevens down to an eight-man rotation.

It was more than they needed.

Starting in place of Aron Baynes, Morris backed up his boast that he could cover James better than anyone except Kawhi Leonard. The Cavaliers star had seven of Cleveland's nine turnovers after accruing eight in the entire four-game, second-round sweep of the Raptors.

''Our confidence level is very high,'' said Morris, who recorded the first postseason double-double of his career. ''The younger guys to the older guys, we think we can compete and play with anybody. At the end of the day, all the talking is done off the court.''

FAST START

Horford made his first seven shots and scored 10, including eight straight, during the 17-0 run that turned a three-point deficit into a 21-7 lead. After James wiggled his way to a layup - Cleveland's first points in 4 minutes, 43 seconds - Boston ran off eight more points in a row; Brown had six of them, and he finished the quarter with 13 points and five rebounds.

Cleveland scored seven straight points early in the third and finished the quarter with six in a row to make it 78-64. But Boston made the first three baskets in the fourth and, after running off nine in a row to make it 96-68 with 7:09 left, the Cavs conceded.

UP NEXT

Game 2: Tuesday night, Boston.

 

[Cnotes53]

SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY MAY 14, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
9:00 PM Golden State Warriors Houston Rockets Toyota Center

SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY MAY 15, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:30 PM Cleveland Cavaliers Boston Celtics TD Garden

SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY MAY 16, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
9:00 PM Golden State Warriors Houston Rockets Toyota Center

SCHEDULE FOR SATURDAY MAY 19, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:30 PM Boston Celtics Cleveland Cavaliers Quicken Loans Arena

SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY MAY 20, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:00 PM Houston Rockets Golden State Warriors ORACLE Arena


****************************


MAY'S NBA BEST BET RECORD: ( BASED ON 5 UNITS )

05/13/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0,50
05/03/2018 0-4-0 0.00% -22.00
05/02/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
05/01/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50

Totals...............4-6-0.........40.00%.....-24.00


BEST BETS................ATS....................UNITS.. ................O/U..............UNITS..............TOTAL

05/13/2018...............0 - 1..................-5.50....................1 - 0..............-5.00..............-0.50
05/03/2018...............0 - 2..................-11.00..................0 - 2..............-11.00............-22.00
05/02/2018...............1 - 0..................+5.00...................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
05/01/2018...............1 - 1..................- 0.50...................0 - 2.............-11.00.............-11.50

Totals........................2 - 4..................-12.00.................2 - 4..............-12.00...............-24.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s 6-pack

CG Technology released spreads for every Week 1-16 game for 2018-19 NFL season. Here are a few of the more interesting spreads:

Week 1: Falcons @ Philadelphia (-4)
Week 2: Chiefs @ Pittsburgh (-7)
Week 3: Jets @ Browns (-2.5)
Week 4: Vikings (-2) @ LA Rams (-3)
Week 5: Raiders @ LA Chargers (-5)
Week 6: Jaguars @ Dallas (-1)

Fact of the Day
25% of the players in the Euro League are former NBA draft picks.

Monday?s quiz
Which team did Joe Namath finish his NFL career with?

Sunday?s quiz
Arizona Coyotes used to be the Winnipeg Jets, before moving to Arizona.

Saturday?s quiz
Ozzie Guillen managed the White Sox when they won the 2005 World Series.

***************************************


Monday?s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend?..

We start today with two examples of why baseball is a fascinating game:
13) Baseball strategy, Exhibit A: Twins-Angels are tied in late innings; Angels have game-winning run on 3rd with two out. Minnesota walks Pujols/Simmons intentionally, to bring up Marte, putting lot of pressure on their pitcher to throw strikes. I?ve never seen a team walk two hitters intentionally to load the bases with two outs, especially with the batter coming up not being a pitcher.

Twins escape the jam, win the game 5-3 in 12 innings.

12) Baseball strategy, Exhibit B: San Diego was tied with the Cardinals in late innings; Padres had men on first and second, no one out, and pinch-hit Spangenberg for Villanueva so he could bunt the runners over.

Spangenberg fouls off two bunts, count is 2-2, and then he fouls off another bunt and strikes out. What are you telling a position player when you have him bunt with two strikes? Especially on the day you brought him back from AAA.

Padres wound up with a walk-off win in the 13th inning, despite all that.

Two teams use unusual strategy, and both win their game.

11) Charlotte Knights, AAA farm team of the White Sox, drew 10,512 fans Saturday, their 8th sellout this season. Would Charlotte be a good city for a major league team?

10) Nick Markakis is hitting .346 this year, having a terrific year; he is 34 years old, has 2,105 career hits, but has never played in an All-Star Game. Hopefully that?ll change this year, and if it does, it?ll be the best moment at the All-Star Game, when he is introduced before the game.

9) Bad news for the Seattle Mariners; Robinson Cano was hit by a pitch Sunday, broke a bone in his right hand.

8) Odubel Herrera has reached base in 41 straight games; the all-time record is 84, held by Ted Williams.

7) Phillies 4, Mets 2? Jacob deGrom threw 45 pitches in the first inning; Phillies fouled off 20 of the 45 pitches- they didn?t get a hit or score a run. A very unusual inning, and then deGrom was lifted from the game.

Mets said that deGrom wasn?t hurt; they just were cautious because of the rain delay before the game and the 45 pitches he threw in the first inning. Plus, it was his first start in 11 days.

6) By way of reference, Angels? Jaime Barria threw 49 pitches in a scoreless first inning against the Giants April 22; that was the night of the 21-pitch AB to Brandon Belt. Those two starts are the most pitches this season thrown in a scoreless inning.

5) Atlanta Braves? 3B prospect Austin Riley was 4-for-5 Sunday with three HR?s, 8 RBIs for AAA Gwinnett; he?ll be in Atlanta pretty soon.

4) Richmond-Albany college lacrosse game drew 4,800 fans Saturday here in the capital city of New York State. Albany doesn?t draw crowds like that for football, but they?re ranked #2 in the country in lacrosse, so the bandwagon is pretty crowded these days. Good for the Great Danes.

3) Texas Rangers brought up lefty reliever Brandon Mann from AAA Sunday; the 34-year old Mann was originally drafted in 2002, and has played both in Japan and in independent leagues. What a journey he must?ve had; congrats on making the big leagues.

2) Major Leagues need to identify who the replay umpires are for each game; they make calls that change games, but they?re hunkered down in Manhattan and are fairly anonymous. It?d be interesting to know who is making a particular call, for better or worse.

1) RIP Coach Chuck Knox, the man who won five straight division title for the Rams in the 70?s, and went to coach the Seahawks/Bills. Coach Knox was 186-147-1 in his NFL career; he won Coach of the Year for all three teams that he coached. RIP, sir.

 

[Cnotes53]

Game 1 - Warriors at Rockets
May 13, 2018

Western Conference Finals ? Game 1
No. 2 Golden State at No. 1 Houston (TNT, 9:00 p.m. ET)

2017-18 Regular Season (Rockets 2-1)

Jan. 20 Rockets (+2.5) vs. Warriors 116-106 (Under 237.5)
Jan. 4 Warriors (-4.5) at Rockets 124-114 (Over 230.5)
Oct. 17 Rockets (+9.5) at Warriors 122-121 (Over 230.5)

The Western Conference Finals will tip off Monday as Houston and Golden State begin their best-of-seven matchup in Game 1 from the Toyota Center. Perhaps it was fitting that the NBA scheduled the two clubs to play on opening night and maybe a sign of things to come as the Rockets spoiled the Warriors celebration by rallying for a 122-121 victory as 9 ?-point underdogs.

Golden State appeared to be on its way to an easy win in the opener back on Oct. 17, leading 71-62 at the break and building that margin to 13 points (101-88) entering the final 12 minutes. However, the offense for the Warriors cooled off in the fourth quarter with just 20 points while Houston connected for 34 and that was the slightest difference.

Including that win, Houston went 2-1 against Golden State in this year? regular season and the final combined scored of those matchups was Warriors 353, Rockets 352. Houston All-Star guard James Harden sat out the one loss but the Warriors didn't have Kevin Durant available either.

For Game 1, BookMaker.eu opened the Rockets as a 1 ?-point home favorites and that says something considering Golden State was listed as a road favorite (-2 ?, -4 ?) in the two regular season encounters from Houston.

Catching points is a rarity for Golden State, especially in the playoffs. VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers explained, ?Since 2015, the Warriors have been listed as an underdog five times in the playoffs, posting a 3-2 record both straight up and against the spread. One of those underdog opportunities came at Houston in Game 3 of the 2015 Western Conference Finals as the Warriors rolled the Rockets, 115-80 as a 1 ?-point ?dogs. It?s hard to judge the Warriors in the ?dog role this season due to their multitude of injuries as Golden State produced a 1-5 ATS mark.?

Houston has gone 8-2 in this year?s playoffs and it?s a respectable 6-4 at the betting counter despite laying double digits in six of the games. The Rockets do have a blemish at home, which came in Game 2 of their second round series against Utah. The Jazz connected on 15 bombs from 3-point land and coincidentally, Minnesota also hit 15 from distance in its Game 3 win (121-105) at home in the first round.

Neither the Jazz or Timberwolves are great 3-point shooting teams but the same can?t be said for Golden State, who was ranked first in shooting (38.4%) from beyond the arc. The Warriors haven?t been as sharp in the playoffs (32.9%) from 3-point land but their overall field goal percentage (46.9%) is still the best of the remaining four teams.

Similar to Houston, Golden State is also 8-2 in the playoffs but just 5-5 ATS. The two setbacks for the Warriors both occurred on the road, a 103-90 loss to San Antonio in Game 4 of the first round and a 119-100 defeat to New Orleans in Game 3 of the conference semifinals. Not surprisingly, the Warriors shot 38 percent in those losses and this series will likely be determined on the outside shot.

Going back to the 2014 postseason, the Warriors are 13-1 in Game 1's but this matchup will be new territory for the club since it was home for all of those games. Houston has won its last four series openers.

We often hear the expression that the NBA is a ?Make or Miss? league and while its overused, it?s the truth. With that being said, which superstar group gives you more confidence with your wagers?

The Rockets backcourt of Harden (28.5 PPG, 7.4 APG) and Chris Paul (21.8 PPG, 6.4 APG) or Golden State?s All-Star quartet of Durant (28.5 PPG), Stephen Curry (24.5 PPG), Klay Thompson (21.2 PPG) and Draymond Green, who is almost averaging a triple-double (13.1 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 9 APG) in this year?s postseason.

NBA expert Tony Mejia believes the Rockets have a strong case of another All-Star and he could be the X-factor in this series. He said, ?Houston has seen Clint Capela raise his level of play this postseason, so if there?s another level to be had, the Rockets can hold serve as the top seed and pull off the upset in the series. His ability to punish the Warriors? desire to go small with the ?Hamptons Five,? the most talented five-man operation in the NBA. Andre Iguodala, when healthy, is still an amazing swiss army knife, the wing equivalent to what Draymond Green accomplishes as an undersized center.?

Mejia added, ?Capela?s ability to impose his will as a physically dominant athlete who is bigger than Green will be a major x-factor. He?s finished on 63 percent of his playoff buckets, right around his regular-season averages. He blocked 18 shots over the five games against Utah and outperformed likely Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. If he?s able to make a significant impact and isn?t taken out by small ball, the Warriors would have no chase than to come back with David West and JaVale McGee, which would help Houston isolate to victimize on the pick-and-roll. That would be a series-changer.?

More numbers strengthening the ?adage? above can be seen in the recent meetings between these teams. Even though the Rockets won the regular season series and claimed the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs, the Warriors have won 15 of the past 20 encounters and that includes an 8-3 record at the Toyota Center.

The one common denominator in the wins for Houston was scoring as it averaged 119 points per game and that included a rare 97-96 win in their first round series of the 2016 playoffs. Make a note that Curry sat out that game for Golden State due to an injury.

The total opened 225 for Game 1 and is sitting at 224 as of Sunday afternoon. The Warriors have seen the ?under? go 6-4 in the playoffs while the results for the Rockets have been a stalemate (5-5).

Despite the high totals for the pair, the ?under? is 13-7 in the last 20 meetings and that includes am 8-2 mark to the low side in their last and only two playoff series.

Golden State opened as a minus-185 favorite (Bet $100 to win $54) to win the series while Houston offers a return of 8/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $160).

The last time the Rockets were in the conference finals came in 2015 when Golden State defeated them in five games. Houston?s lone win occurred when they shot 56 percent from the field, which includes an eye-opening 17-of-32 (53%) from 3-point land. The Warriors only connected on 43 percent of their shots in the loss.

Since Golden State started its championship form that season, the club has gone 3-0 in the conference finals but has never swept one of those series (4-2, 4-3, 4-1). However, bettors looking to get greedy with some Exact Game wagers on the series should note that Golden State hasn?t seen a best-of-seven matchup go longer than five games. The Warriors to win in five games (4-1) brings back a 6/1 return while the 4-0 sweep pays 17/2 (Bet $100 to win 850).

All three of our NBA analysts, including myself, have Golden State winning the series.

The pair will meet again from the Toyota Center on Wednesday for Game 2.

 

[Cnotes53]

Top-seed Houston hosts Warriors
May 13, 2018

HOUSTON (AP) The Golden State Warriors are in the unfamiliar position of opening on the road as they prepare for Game 1 of the Western Conference finals with the top-seeded Rockets in Houston on Monday night in the series that many have been waiting for all season.

It's the first time the No. 2 Warriors have been in a playoff series without home-court advantage since 2014 when they lost to the Los Angeles Clippers 4-3 in the opening round.

For a team that has matched the Chicago Bulls' NBA record with 15 straight home playoff victories, the feeling is a bit unsettling.

''It's different,'' coach Steve Kerr said. ''I think our guys, they are taking the challenge and they're embracing it. They feel like, `OK, we don't have home court for the first time,' but we seem to be at our best when we are threatened. That's been kind of the M.O. of this team. We're definitely threatened. We're on the road for Game 1, we've never felt that.''

The Rockets, who earned the top seed for the first time in franchise history by winning 65 games in the regular season, are certainly happy to be opening at home, but aren't sure if it's that much of an advantage in this series.

''It's better to have it than not ... it's important but they've shown they can win away from home, we can win away from home,'' coach Mike D'Antoni said.

''This might be a series where you lose one or two and then win four in a row - either side. Because they're capable of it.''

This will be the third playoff meeting between these two teams in the past four years, with the Warriors winning both previous meetings. They downed the Rockets 4-1 in 2015 in Houston's previous trip to the conference finals and ousted the team from the playoffs in the first round in 2016.

The defending champion Warriors are looking to reach the NBA Finals for the fourth straight year. For the Rockets, a win in this series would put them in the Finals for the first since 1995 when they won the second of their back-to-back titles.

D'Antoni was asked if he thinks the Warriors have seen a team as talented and dangerous as the Rockets are this season.

''I hope not,'' he said. ''We did win 65. They're the ones always winning and getting home-court advantage so hopefully we gained a little ground.''

However, he knows that his team is the perceived underdog in this series despite nabbing the top seed because of what the Warriors have done over the past few years.

''These guys are champions for a reason and they've shown on the big stage that they can perform at a very, very, very high level - as good as anybody ever,'' he said. ''And we haven't shown that yet and that's the doubt in most people's minds, until you show it they don't know ... so we've just got to beat them and show them we can do it.''

Some things to know about the Warriors-Rockets series.

CURRY FACTOR

Stephen Curry certainly feels back to his spot-on self with the swagger that goes with those dazzling drives and way-back 3-pointers.

Curry returned from nearly six months sidelined with a sprained left knee to play the final four games of a five-game semifinal series against New Orleans. The two-time MVP scored 28 points on 10-for-16 shooting in his most minutes yet since the March 23 injury - 37 - in the Game 5 clincher last Tuesday night.

His minutes have increased each game he plays and he was 32 for 67 with 15 3s in the Pelicans series.

HOUSTON'S X-FACTOR

While the spotlight for Houston in this series is certainly MVP front-runner James Harden and fellow point guard Chris Paul, the Rockets insist that center Clint Capela is just as important to their success.

''Everybody always wants to point out me and James, but he's the X-factor,'' Paul said.

Houston is 50-5 this season in games where all three have played, and during the regular season the Rockets outscored their opponents in those games by an average of 11.5 points.

D'Antoni believes the 6-foot-10 Capela's ability to switch on guards as well as defend in the paint will be a key in this series.

''It's a must that you have to have (someone like him) against Golden State or they're going to get you,'' he said.

''This will help. They're still going to get us to a certain degree, but hopefully we can lessen it more than if we just had a traditional center that can't guard on the perimeter.''

THE CHAMPS ARE THE CHAMPS

Sure, the Warriors might not be the top dogs in the West from the regular season.

They still have the hardware.

Paul has never reached a conference final and neither James Harden nor D'Antoni has a championship either. Kevin Durant captured his first title last season while winning Finals MVP honors.

Golden State's other three All-Stars - Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson - has a pair of championships from the past three seasons.

''I like where we are,'' Kerr said. ''Our guys have rings. That's a good position to be in. To me the hardest championship is the first one, as an individual player or as a team because you don't know. You don't quite know if you can do it.

''Once you get the first one, there's a little bit of house money, but you want it again because it's an unbelievable feeling. I like our position. We're going to go in here knowing we're the defending champs, knowing we've got a couple championships here the last few years. Let's go get another one.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Rockets, Warriors ready
May 13, 2018

By Tom Wilkinson

Game 1 - Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets

The most anticipated matchup of the NBA Playoffs begins on Monday night, as the Golden State Warriors visit the Houston Rockets in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final.

This could really be called the NBA Finals, because virtually no one gives either Boston or Cleveland any chance against the winner of this series.

The Warriors are listed as favorites to win this best-of-seven game series, but the Rockets are a slight favorite to win Game 1. Let?s look at the contest on Monday night and NBA picks.

Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Date and Time: Monday, May 14, 2018, 9:00 p.m. Eastern
Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
NBA Odds: Rockets -1, O/U 224.5
Warriors vs. Rockets TV Coverage: TNT

The Warriors and Rockets were expected to meet in this series and now it is finally here. Each team played five games in the first round of the playoffs and five in the second round, and neither team was challenged. The Warriors will be looking to win one of the first two games in Houston and take away home court advantage. "It's been a while since we've started out a series on the road -- you kind of forget that feeling," Warriors forward Draymond Green said to the media. "We got a couple of swings to go in there and take one. So I'm looking forward to that for sure."

These teams met three times in the regular season and each game was different. The Rockets won 122-121 on opening night, the Warriors won 124-114 in January and Houston won 116-108 two weeks later. Both teams knew this playoff matchup was coming and each team is excited it is finally here.

?They've been to the Finals three straight years. We're just excited.? Houston?s Clint Capela said, ?Everybody's excited about it. And I'm sure all the NBA fans are excited about it, too."

Key Stats

This is going to be a high-scoring series, as it is the best offensive matchup in NBA history. There has never been a series between two teams averaging more than 112 points per 100 possessions. If you are going by what happened in the regular season in their matchups, you may want to reconsider. The Warriors didn?t have one of their top defenders, Andre Iguodala in the opener and he didn?t play in their third meeting. James Harden and Kevin Durant didn?t play in the second meeting.

Golden State has actually gone under the total in five of their last six road games and Houston has gone under in 14 of their last 20 home games. Five of the last six meetings in Houston have gone under the total.

Warriors vs. Rockets Free Picks

The Warriors have Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, while the Rockets have James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela. Even if you say that Harden, Paul and Capela are as good as Curry, Durant and Green, which I don?t, the Rockets still don?t have anyone that can match up with Thompson.

Golden State simply has more offensive weapons than Houston has and they also have the better coach, as Steve Kerr has proven he can win in the playoffs, while Mike D?Antoni has not. I think the Warriors will win at least one of these two games in Houston, so I will take Golden State in this first game. I also think there is some definite value on the total. There is no question that the public is going to want to play every game in this series over the total. In theory it would make sense, since both of these two teams score a lot of points, but the oddsmakers are well aware of this fact.

The total for Game 1 is set at 224.5. The trends definitely support going under the total and you have to factor in that Iguodala will be playing and he definitely helps Golden State?s defense. I will take Game 1 on Monday to go under the total.

Warriors vs. Rockets ATS Pick: Warriors and Under the total
Warriors vs. Rockets Score Prediction: Warriors 112, Rockets 108

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA Conference Finals preview capsules

WESTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 HOUSTON ROCKETS (65-17, 8-2) vs. No. 2 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (58-24, 8-2)

Season series: Rockets, 2-1.

Story line: The matchup seemed inevitable. The Rockets went out and got Chris Paul, with hopes of being the team that ends Golden State's three-year stranglehold on the Western Conference crown. Houston has the home-court edge, sure, but the Warriors have won at least one road game in 17 consecutive playoff series. Golden State is bidding for a third title in four years, and the Rockets are an absurd 50-5 when Paul, James Harden and Clint Capela play in the same game.

How They Got Here: Houston beat No. 8 Minnesota 4-1 and No. 5 Utah 4-1. Golden State beat No. 7 San Antonio 4-1 and No. 6 New Orleans 4-1.

Key Matchup: Golden State's Kevin Durant vs. Houston's Trevor Ariza. The backcourt matchup - Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson for the Warriors, Paul and Harden for the Rockets - will be unbelievable. But Ariza is going to have to find a way to keep Durant in some sort of check, especially it seems like Curry is back to normal after his knee injury.

Prediction: Warriors in 6.

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA Western Conference final Game 1 betting preview and odds: Warriors at Rockets

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (-1.5, 224)

Series tied 0-0.

The Houston Rockets have had the look all season of a team ready to dethrone the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference. They now get their chance to try to turn that vision into a reality when the star-studded squads tangle in the best-of-seven conference finals, beginning with Game 1 on Monday night in Houston.

The Rockets won the West by seven games over the second-place Warriors and took two of three regular-season meetings while averaging 117.3 points, and they've cruised to their second conference finals in four seasons - the last in 2015 resulting in a lopsided series loss at the hands of Golden State - with back-to-back 4-1 series wins over Minnesota and Utah. The defending NBA champion Warriors also needed just five games to get by each of their first two opponents and are seeking their fourth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. "We know they are a great team," Golden State coach Steve Kerr recently told the media of the Rockets. "We know they are ready, and we'll be ready for them." The teams last met in the playoffs in 2016, when the Warriors rolled in five games in a first-round matchup.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TNT

SERIES PRICE (PER PINNACLE):

LINE HISTORY: The Rockets opened the betting for Game 1 as 2-point home favorites and that numbers has been pushed down slightly to 1.5 as of Sunday night. The total hit betting boards at 225 and has been dropped to 225.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The two best teams in the NBA face off in the Western Conference finals and the winner will be a substantial favorite to win the NBA Finals. Look-ahead odds give the Warriors a 86% chance to defeat the Cavaliers and 91% chance to defeat the Celtics. Meanwhile, the Rockets will have a 78% chance to defeat the Cavaliers and an 88% chance to defeat the Celtics in the NBA Finals." - Steve Merril.

INJURY REPORT:

Warriors - SG P. McCaw (Early June, Back), SF C. Boucher (Out Indefinitely, Ankle).

Rockets - No injuries to report.

MATCHUP CHART:

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (66-26 SU, 39-52-1 ATS, 43-48-1 O/U): Golden State returned to full power when Stephen Curry came back from a knee injury in Game 2 of the semifinal series against New Orleans, and the two-time MVP showed little rust as he averaged 24.5 points while making 44.1 percent of his 3-pointers during the series. His presence makes the defending champs a complete team that is supremely confident, even as a rare underdog. "No, I like where we are," Kerr told the media. "Our guys have rings. That's a good position to be in. To me, the hardest championship is the first one, as an individual player and as a team, because you don't know - you don't quite know - if you can do it."

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (73-19 SU, 47-44-1 ATS, 38-53-1 O/U): The big difference between past Houston teams that have faltered against Golden State is the notable addition of point guard Chris Paul, who averaged 21.8 points through the first two rounds. "We've got eight more wins to get," he told reporters when asked if he celebrated his first trip to the conference finals in his 13-year career. "I don't know what it's supposed to feel like, but we've still got a lot of work to do." Backcourt mate James Harden continues to stuff the stat sheet and has joined Michael Jordan (1988-89 and 1990-91) as the second player in NBA history to average at least 28 points, seven assists, five boards and two steals while playing more than five games in a postseason.

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Finals games.
* Rockets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
* Over is 4-0 in Warriors' last 4 Conference Finals games.
* Under is 10-1 in Rockets' last 11 vs. NBA Pacific.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS:

There are 55 percent of pointspread bets on the underdog Warriors while 73 percent of total bets are on the Over.

 

[Cnotes53]

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, May 14


Golden State @ Houston

Game 731-732
May 14, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
126.154
Houston
130.659
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 4 1/2
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
224
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-1 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, May 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GOLDEN STATE (66 - 26) at HOUSTON (73 - 19) - 5/14/2018, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 38-51 ATS (-18.1 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 19-32 ATS (-16.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
HOUSTON is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 63-38 ATS (+21.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
HOUSTON is 40-53 ATS (-18.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents this season.
HOUSTON is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-5 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, May 14

Golden State @ Houston
Rockets won two of three games with Golden State this year; road team won two of those three games. Warriors won/covered four of their last six visits to Houston. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Golden State is 8-2 in these playoffs, splitting four road games; they?re 2-5 vs spread in last seven games (under 5-2). Houston is also 8-2 in the playoffs; they?re 3-3 vs spread in last six home games. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Conference finals

Cavaliers-Celtics

Bos 108-83, +1, U204.5




NBA

Monday, May 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games on the road
Golden State is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Golden State's last 10 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston's last 18 games
Houston is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Houston's last 20 games at home
Houston is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State