As always, I'll share picks in a few different situational spots I track.
No fake lines that aren't available when posted (and in some cases never were.)
No disappearing or fake record.
No attention 'ho, "GUARANTEED!" "LOCK!" "GAME-OF-THE-YEAR" BS, no "Hey, look at me! Love me, want me, NEED ME!" crap.
Just game opinions/picks, plus analysis, stats, when-to-buy strategy, and money management tips.
And hopefully, by season's end, more W's than L's.
I employ a few different situational spots I've developed over the years. I will list all games that fit the parameters to qualify as a play.
I don't buy/recommend all the spots that qualify.
Why post the ones I don't buy? Record keeping purposes, and in case anyone is looking for edges on that particular game.
I have different goals than most bettors do.
Goal number one is - Do Not Lose Money.
Some will say, "What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to make money!"
It's called a realistic goal.
Fact is, MOST bettors lose. They are loathe to admit it (especially on the internet, where almost everybody "wins") but it is a fact.
So, as the physicians' creed goes, "Primum non nocere" or ("First, do no harm" - in this case, to my bankroll.)
If I don't play to win money, then why bet?
I didn't say I don't wager to win, I said it's not my first goal.
Goal number two is to make a profit.
Goal number three is The Grail - 67%
There are other reasons I bet, and share my picks, thoughts, and advice.
It's a chess game to me - as an odds maker, can my #'s beat the books? And it's a hobby, it's fun.
It's NOT a way to make a living (I ran a Vegas book for years and saw far too many people lose everything because they had a "system" so they moved to Vegas to enjoy an "easy life" of betting sports. And 99% of them disappeared before the season ended.)
And I share because I am altruistic by nature.
If you're a winning, experienced bettor, congrats, I wish you continued success. I post for newbies and people who are struggling. Hopefully I can help them.
Got my ass kicked last year, reg season, brought my 3 year record at MJ's down from grinding out a two year profit at 55% to lost juice at an even .500, 51-51.
Here are the spots that qualify (some may be added or removed on game day when I update using final numbers):
Play #1 has . . .
Overs: (Last Year 54-42, 56%) - Mass/N Mex St, UCF, Conn, Min, Mia, G Tech, Ok, Iowa, Wash St, Ill, V Tech
Unders: (LY 40-27, 59%) - LA Tech, TCU, Ind, Hou, UCLA
Play #2 has . . .
Overs: (LY 15-9, 62%) Fla, 'Bama
Unders: (LY 15-15, 50%) Buff, Mass/Aub, N Mex, Wash St
So, with solid W %'s on 3 of 4 spots I use, how come I did so poorly last season?
1) Because I did a lousy job at picking which games to buy, and which games to stay off of
2) Because Play #2 Unders had the best record combined the previous two seasons, so I leaned heavily on them, and they only hit at 50%
3) Because I didn't use Unders in Play #1 despite a > 15 year history of a solid W% overall
Three year record for these spots:
Play #1 Ov 124-128, 49%; Un 96-75, 56%
Play #2 Ov 92-90, 50%, Un 89-56, 61%
Un in Play #2 has the highest W % but had that freak 2020 of 23-4, posted, which skews the #'s; was just .500 the last two years.
Un in Play #1 has a solid W % at 56% last three years, but has been hitting at that % for over 15 years now (don't have all my log books with me or I'd add the record for other years.) It's the most consistent play I have, and until/if it starts losing I'm going to ride most of them this year. Buying the three early games for sure, will wait for those results to come in before making a call on buying the two late games, Hou and UCLA.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL THE MAD JACKERS THIS SEASON!!!
Buys:
Fla Int/LA Tech Un 59 (# is at 59/58', dropping, buy now)
Col/TCU Un (wait to buy, I think the line will move in my favor)
Ohio St/Ind Un (wait to buy, I think the line will move in my favor)
No fake lines that aren't available when posted (and in some cases never were.)
No disappearing or fake record.
No attention 'ho, "GUARANTEED!" "LOCK!" "GAME-OF-THE-YEAR" BS, no "Hey, look at me! Love me, want me, NEED ME!" crap.
Just game opinions/picks, plus analysis, stats, when-to-buy strategy, and money management tips.
And hopefully, by season's end, more W's than L's.
I employ a few different situational spots I've developed over the years. I will list all games that fit the parameters to qualify as a play.
I don't buy/recommend all the spots that qualify.
Why post the ones I don't buy? Record keeping purposes, and in case anyone is looking for edges on that particular game.
I have different goals than most bettors do.
Goal number one is - Do Not Lose Money.
Some will say, "What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to make money!"
It's called a realistic goal.
Fact is, MOST bettors lose. They are loathe to admit it (especially on the internet, where almost everybody "wins") but it is a fact.
So, as the physicians' creed goes, "Primum non nocere" or ("First, do no harm" - in this case, to my bankroll.)
If I don't play to win money, then why bet?
I didn't say I don't wager to win, I said it's not my first goal.
Goal number two is to make a profit.
Goal number three is The Grail - 67%
There are other reasons I bet, and share my picks, thoughts, and advice.
It's a chess game to me - as an odds maker, can my #'s beat the books? And it's a hobby, it's fun.
It's NOT a way to make a living (I ran a Vegas book for years and saw far too many people lose everything because they had a "system" so they moved to Vegas to enjoy an "easy life" of betting sports. And 99% of them disappeared before the season ended.)
And I share because I am altruistic by nature.
If you're a winning, experienced bettor, congrats, I wish you continued success. I post for newbies and people who are struggling. Hopefully I can help them.
Got my ass kicked last year, reg season, brought my 3 year record at MJ's down from grinding out a two year profit at 55% to lost juice at an even .500, 51-51.
Here are the spots that qualify (some may be added or removed on game day when I update using final numbers):
Play #1 has . . .
Overs: (Last Year 54-42, 56%) - Mass/N Mex St, UCF, Conn, Min, Mia, G Tech, Ok, Iowa, Wash St, Ill, V Tech
Unders: (LY 40-27, 59%) - LA Tech, TCU, Ind, Hou, UCLA
Play #2 has . . .
Overs: (LY 15-9, 62%) Fla, 'Bama
Unders: (LY 15-15, 50%) Buff, Mass/Aub, N Mex, Wash St
So, with solid W %'s on 3 of 4 spots I use, how come I did so poorly last season?
1) Because I did a lousy job at picking which games to buy, and which games to stay off of
2) Because Play #2 Unders had the best record combined the previous two seasons, so I leaned heavily on them, and they only hit at 50%
3) Because I didn't use Unders in Play #1 despite a > 15 year history of a solid W% overall
Three year record for these spots:
Play #1 Ov 124-128, 49%; Un 96-75, 56%
Play #2 Ov 92-90, 50%, Un 89-56, 61%
Un in Play #2 has the highest W % but had that freak 2020 of 23-4, posted, which skews the #'s; was just .500 the last two years.
Un in Play #1 has a solid W % at 56% last three years, but has been hitting at that % for over 15 years now (don't have all my log books with me or I'd add the record for other years.) It's the most consistent play I have, and until/if it starts losing I'm going to ride most of them this year. Buying the three early games for sure, will wait for those results to come in before making a call on buying the two late games, Hou and UCLA.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL THE MAD JACKERS THIS SEASON!!!
Buys:
Fla Int/LA Tech Un 59 (# is at 59/58', dropping, buy now)
Col/TCU Un (wait to buy, I think the line will move in my favor)
Ohio St/Ind Un (wait to buy, I think the line will move in my favor)
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