College Football buys for 2021

[RBD]

As always, a few picks in a few different situational spots I track,
analysis, stats, when-to-buy strategy, and money management tips.
And hopefully, by season's end, more W's than L's.

I employ a few different systems I've developed over the years.
I will list all games that fit the parameters to qualify as a play.
I don't buy/recommend all the spots that qualify.
Why post the ones I don't buy?
Record keeping purposes, and in case anyone is looking for opinions on that particular game.

I track 7-8 systems but as most will grade out to approximately .500 I don't post them all.
I'll add and drop systems as the season progresses when/if I isolate something that gives me an edge.

I'll start with two this season:

The first spot is a contrarian play (this was called Play #1 last year, called CP this year so I don't have to type out Play #1 every time I refer to the spot.)

The second spot is what was called the New Play (NP) last season.

Though I usually use totals only in my 'capping, I'm going to track a few side spots as well this season, based on point differentials to see if anything useful develops.

This week . . .

Sides: U Conn, UCLA; CORRECTION: 8/27, play is Haw, not UCLA

CP: UTEP/N Mex St Un

NP: UTEP/N Mex St Un

Posted here last year: "When Play #1 and the New Play both say take the Under, the record is 4-1."
Based on that 4-1 record, if it was LY I'd buy the Under in UTEP, but, LY's stats haven't got much weight, it's a new year, new teams, new coaches. And, before I completed my stat work and saw the two spots on the Un, I bought the game Ov 55 because I thought 55 looked low for these two.
It's at 59/59' today, up from an opening 52. I could probably get a nice middle of 5 pts by kickoff, but I'll likely sit on what I have, it's small $.

Unders in NP did very well last year, but I didn't formulate and track/share the play until the games of November 11. Almost zero chance it will do as well this year, and I have no way of knowing if it needs a few weeks of data to become effective because I can't duplicate the numbers to see how it performed in Sept and Oct last season. As always, I'll try to proceed slowly at first (small $ units) and wait for some data to come in before investing in spots.

Last word. I have different goals.
Goal #1 is Do Not Lose Money.
Some will say, "What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to make money!"
It's called a realistic goal.
Fact is, MOST bettors lose.
They are loathe to admit it (especially on the internet, where almost everybody "wins") but it is a fact.
So, as the creed goes, "Primum non nocere" or ("First, do no harm" - in this case, to my bank roll)

If you don't play to win money, then why bet?
I didn't say I don't wager to win, I said it's not my first goal.
Goal #2 is to win
Goal #3 is The Grail - 67%

There are other reasons I bet, and share my picks, thoughts, and advice.
One is - it's a chess game to me - as an odds maker, can my #'s beat the books?
And I share because I am altruistic by nature.
If you're a winning, experienced bettor, congrats, I post for newbies and people who are struggling. Hopefully I can help them out.

I'll have some TV/fun/action bets going, but probably no recommended buys for the seven games this opening weekend. If that changes, I'll post.

Good luck to all of you this season . . .

 

[Trucker Gambler]

I dont like going against you but I made my plays today I have Fresno -14.5 in the 1st half and -27.5 for the game I just see this ugly as all ugly by the half, And my other play was UTEP over 59.5 I bought this down for the hook but it could be 80 neither one have defense,

Good Luck RBD

 

[#cruncher]

As always, a few picks in a few different situational spots I track,
analysis, stats, when-to-buy strategy, and money management tips.
And hopefully, by season's end, more W's than L's.

I employ a few different systems I've developed over the years.
I will list all games that fit the parameters to qualify as a play.
I don't buy/recommend all the spots that qualify.
Why post the ones I don't buy?
Record keeping purposes, and in case anyone is looking for opinions on that particular game.

I track 7-8 systems but as most will grade out to approximately .500 I don't post them all.
I'll add and drop systems as the season progresses when/if I isolate something that gives me an edge.

I'll start with two this season:

The first spot is a contrarian play (this was called Play #1 last year, called CP this year so I don't have to type out Play #1 every time I refer to the spot.)

The second spot is what was called the New Play (NP) last season.

Though I usually use totals only in my 'capping, I'm going to track a few side spots as well this season, based on point differentials to see if anything useful develops.

This week . . .

Sides: U Conn, UCLA

CP: UTEP/N Mex St Un

NP: UTEP/N Mex St Un

Posted here last year: "When Play #1 and the New Play both say take the Under, the record is 4-1."
Based on that 4-1 record, if it was LY I'd buy the Under in UTEP, but, LY's stats haven't got much weight, it's a new year, new teams, new coaches. And, before I completed my stat work and saw the two spots on the Un, I bought the game Ov 55 because I thought 55 looked low for these two.
It's at 59/59' today, up from an opening 52. I could probably get a nice middle of 5 pts by kickoff, but I'll likely sit on what I have, it's small $.

Unders in NP did very well last year, but I didn't formulate and track/share the play until the games of November 11. Almost zero chance it will do as well this year, and I have no way of knowing if it needs a few weeks of data to become effective because I can't duplicate the numbers to see how it performed in Sept and Oct last season. As always, I'll try to proceed slowly at first (small $ units) and wait for some data to come in before investing in spots.

Last word. I have different goals.
Goal #1 is Do Not Lose Money.
Some will say, "What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to make money!"
It's called a realistic goal.
Fact is, MOST bettors lose.
They are loathe to admit it (especially on the internet, where almost everybody "wins") but it is a fact.
So, as the creed goes, "Primum non nocere" or ("First, do no harm" - in this case, to my bank roll)

If you don't play to win money, then why bet?
I didn't say I don't wager to win, I said it's not my first goal.
Goal #2 is to win
Goal #3 is The Grail - 67%

There are other reasons I bet, and share my picks, thoughts, and advice.
One is - it's a chess game to me - as an odds maker, can my #'s beat the books?
And I share because I am altruistic by nature.
If you're a winning, experienced bettor, congrats, I post for newbies and people who are struggling. Hopefully I can help them out.

I'll have some TV/fun/action bets going, but probably no recommended buys for the seven games this opening weekend. If that changes, I'll post.

Good luck to all of you this season . . .

Good Luck RBD!

 

[RBD]

Trucker and Cruncher - thanks for stopping in, good luck to you both this season.

Trucker, you're not really going against a play of mine, I have no buys this weekend. We're on the same play in the UTEP game, and as for Fresno, even though my #'s say take U Conn, this is a new venture for me, I have no stats/records for these side spots, could be fades for all I know. Only time will tell.

I'll do my usual Saturday morning handicapping to see if anything changes (sometimes plays get added, sometimes they get dropped due to line moves.) I'll update if there are any. For now, no buys, just some TV bets (I gotta have some fun on these games) nothing of substance, nothing that counts (including UTEP if it does go Ov. I only mentioned it to explain why I'm not taking the Un, because I had already bought a small play on Ov before seeing it fits the Un in the CP and NP spots.)

 

[gridman]

Wishing you the best (and us) for the upcoming football season!

Wishing you the best (and us) for the upcoming football season!

Will be hoping for a profitable season and lets hope the pandemic phobia doesn't get the best of us. Chomping at the bit and being biased, will put a little beer money on the Hawaii Warriors +18. Feel they are a much better team than last year especially with a full Spring and Fall training under their belt. Nada last year and coupled with a brand new coaching staff, it was a miracle they played respectable ball. Don't laugh but it wouldn't surprise me if they beat UCLA outright. Oh well . . . just hoping it's a decent game to watch on tv. Have my 6 pack ready.

GMopcorn2

 

[PrisonMike]

As always, a few picks in a few different situational spots I track,
analysis, stats, when-to-buy strategy, and money management tips.
And hopefully, by season's end, more W's than L's.

I employ a few different systems I've developed over the years.
I will list all games that fit the parameters to qualify as a play.
I don't buy/recommend all the spots that qualify.
Why post the ones I don't buy?
Record keeping purposes, and in case anyone is looking for opinions on that particular game.

I track 7-8 systems but as most will grade out to approximately .500 I don't post them all.
I'll add and drop systems as the season progresses when/if I isolate something that gives me an edge.

I'll start with two this season:

The first spot is a contrarian play (this was called Play #1 last year, called CP this year so I don't have to type out Play #1 every time I refer to the spot.)

The second spot is what was called the New Play (NP) last season.

Though I usually use totals only in my 'capping, I'm going to track a few side spots as well this season, based on point differentials to see if anything useful develops.

This week . . .

Sides: U Conn, UCLA; CORRECTION: 8/27, play is Haw, not UCLA

CP: UTEP/N Mex St Un

NP: UTEP/N Mex St Un

Posted here last year: "When Play #1 and the New Play both say take the Under, the record is 4-1."
Based on that 4-1 record, if it was LY I'd buy the Under in UTEP, but, LY's stats haven't got much weight, it's a new year, new teams, new coaches. And, before I completed my stat work and saw the two spots on the Un, I bought the game Ov 55 because I thought 55 looked low for these two.
It's at 59/59' today, up from an opening 52. I could probably get a nice middle of 5 pts by kickoff, but I'll likely sit on what I have, it's small $.

Unders in NP did very well last year, but I didn't formulate and track/share the play until the games of November 11. Almost zero chance it will do as well this year, and I have no way of knowing if it needs a few weeks of data to become effective because I can't duplicate the numbers to see how it performed in Sept and Oct last season. As always, I'll try to proceed slowly at first (small $ units) and wait for some data to come in before investing in spots.

Last word. I have different goals.
Goal #1 is Do Not Lose Money.
Some will say, "What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to make money!"
It's called a realistic goal.
Fact is, MOST bettors lose.
They are loathe to admit it (especially on the internet, where almost everybody "wins") but it is a fact.
So, as the creed goes, "Primum non nocere" or ("First, do no harm" - in this case, to my bank roll)

If you don't play to win money, then why bet?
I didn't say I don't wager to win, I said it's not my first goal.
Goal #2 is to win
Goal #3 is The Grail - 67%

There are other reasons I bet, and share my picks, thoughts, and advice.
One is - it's a chess game to me - as an odds maker, can my #'s beat the books?
And I share because I am altruistic by nature.
If you're a winning, experienced bettor, congrats, I post for newbies and people who are struggling. Hopefully I can help them out.

I'll have some TV/fun/action bets going, but probably no recommended buys for the seven games this opening weekend. If that changes, I'll post.

Good luck to all of you this season . . .

Good to see you again, RBD! Thank you very much for your write-ups and insights ? I find them to be extremely valuable. Good luck this season!:0074

 

[RBD]

Gridman and Mike - thanks for stopping in, good luck to you both this season!

No buys last week, and that was a mistake.
It's usually 3-4 weeks into the season before I post a "mea culpa" message reminding me to not overthink plays and just bet the damned systems that have a proven track record.
I stayed off UTEP Un because I bought the Ov 55 on it before I did any 'capping (and saw both of my main systems called for an Un) and thought the # was too low. Unfortunately, I was on the same side as most people (never a good thing) as it went all the way up to 59' by game time.
It stayed Un the closing # by 26 pts!

Both my systems called for an Un and I didn't use either, despite close to two decades of tracking and winning (most years) with the CP spot, and despite how much the New Play won here last year, the first year I developed it.
Mistake.

Posted plays:
CP: 1-0, Un 1-0
NP: 1-0, Un 1-0

Trying sides for the first time, both lost, may be useful as fades?
I'll keep tracking sides but I want to focus on totals, as I usually do. Stick with what works.
I'll post updates on sides, and buys if I make any, but not on a daily basis, it's too much work and too much info, makes things muddy here.

This week:

CP has Ov in Temple, Tenn, Rice, USC, Ill, S Miss, Az
Un in Minn, Purdue, Navy, Texas

NP has Ov in V Tech
Un in UCF, Purdue
(reminder - New Plays are subject to change due to line moves)

Buying the Purdue spot.
May take Boise too, but I want to check the record on this play for weeknight games before I do.

Buys:
Ore St/Purdue Un (wait to buy, # is rising)

 

[RBD]

Update, with changes (added plays/dropped plays.)

Thursday:
CP has Ov in Rutgers, Tenn
Un in Minn

Saturday:
CP has Ov in Ark, Ill, S 'Bama, Az
Un in Purdue, Navy, Tex


Reviewing LY's #'s, I see it was an off year for CP spots.
Overs had a winning season (8 games above .500 despite a brutal closing week where they went 1-4) Unders lost, 18-22.) It's usually the other way around, Overs hover around .500, Unders are profitable, based on almost two decades of tracking this play.

New Play (NP) Ov's finished at .500 so they lost juice.
NP Un's killed it and made it a great season for me.

Made another buy decision, Maryland game.
Will post any other buys I make this week as an update in this thread.

UPDATE Thur 9/2:

1) Rutger's game tonight is postponed as the Raritan river (fished it many times in my youth) has flooded the area. They may go on Saturday. If they do, it will count as a play (no buy for me though.)

2) CORRECTION - I was doing research on the Ore St/Purdue spot. The # has gone from 63' to 68'.
I wanted to see what the record is on Unders when the total went up 5 or > pts. I checked my logbook to review last year's games and saw a notation on the formula for what was called the New Play - "Teams must have played at least one game to qualify."
This means last week's UTEP game does not count as a win.
It also means this week's plays, Ov and Un, won't count either.
I've deleted them from the daily spots posted above, to avoid confusion.

Here are the deleted spots:
Friday NP has Ov in W Forest, V Tech
Saturday NP has Un in Purdue, Maryland, Mizzoo, 'S 'Bama.

I already posted the Purdue and Maryland games as buys, so even though I posted "Wait to Buy" notices I'll still buy them and they will count in my record, just not in the NP record since they don't qualify.

Buys:
Ore St/Purdue Un 68'
W Virg/Maryland Un 57'

 

[gridman]

Congrats on your two BUYS. Keep it comin'

GM

 

[RBD]

Thanks, Grid.

Recap: 2-0
A nice start to the season.
With 41 scored at the half, W Virg looked to be a sure loser, but a scoreless 3rd quarter helped get a W.

The reason I put qualifying parameters on plays is to increase the W %, but it looks like the qualifier "Must have played at least one game" wasn't necessary, as ALL FOUR NP Unders spots won. With a W last week, New Play Un would be 5-0, but, as stated I won't count them.
CP spots went 3-5, Ov 2-3, Un 1-2.

CP: 4-7, Ov 2-4, Un 2-3
NP: 0-0
My record: 2-0

The UTEP/Boise game on Thursday qualifies as NP Un, but this may change due to line movements.
Right now the common # is 57, but some houses have dropped it to 56'.
May be my first buy of the week if the # doesn't drop further.
Will update this spot, and add others that qualify, later in the week.

 

[RBD]

This week . . .

Friday:

CP has Kan/CC Un (record on this spot is 2-3)

Saturday:

CP has Purdue/U Conn Ov, Hou/Rice Ov (record on this spot is 2-4)

NP has Ov in S Car/E Car, Mia Oh/Minn, Tex A&M/Col, N Tex/SMU, Tex/Ark, Buf/Neb
Un in Geo South/Fla Atl, Liberty/Troy

OP has Ov in Wash/Mich (record on this spot is 0-0)
Un in Geo St/N Car, Haw/Ore St (record on this spot is 1-1)

Buys:
Geo South/Fla Atl Un 48

 

[RBD]

Saturday morning update:

One drop, no add-ons, and unfortunately the drop is the Geo South/Fla Atl Un. It stands as a buy because I already bought it, but not in the record for this play. The Missouri/Kentucky game may be added as a NP Un if the common number becomes 57. Looks like it's heading that way so maybe I'll get one more Un spot to look at later today.

I'll post any additional buys I make.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 3-0

Posted spots went 3-10, and that's okay because all I want is consistency. Win or lose makes no difference.
Everyone is sooo hung up and focused on looking for plays that win, but plays that lose are just as valuable. It's consistency you want.
And on the subject on consistency, the only NP Un spot won easily with Liberty/Troy. Anyone who remembers those from LY and is riding them banked another W.

In case it wasn't noticed, I added another spot last week, OP, and it came through with a solid 0-4.
I'll look for one of those to fade this week.

Updated charts:

CP: 4-10, Ov 2-6, Un 2-4
NP: 3-3, Ov 2-3, Un1-0
OP: 1-5, Ov 0-2, Un 1-3

The usually reliable CP Un spot is just 2-4. Overs worse than usual at 2-6.

Back with qualifiers ASAP.

 

[RBD]

Record: 3-0

Updated charts (with correction - last week I gave an L to an OP Ov spot, should be in the NP record):

CP: 4-10, Ov 2-6, Un 2-4
NP: 3-4, Ov 2-4, Un 1-0
OP: 1-4, Ov 0-1, Un 1-3

This week's spots:

CP has Ov in N Ill/Mich, Stan/Vandy, Troy/S Miss, Utah/S Diego St, Utah St/A Force
Un in 'Bama/Fla, W Mich/Pitt

NP has Ov in Minn/Col, G Tech/Clem, Fla Int/Tex Tech
Un in Miss St/Mem, Virg/NC, Utah St /A Force

OP has Un in N'West/Duke, Tulane/Miss

Buying one NP Un now, waiting on the other two as they barely qualify and may no longer qualify tomorrow. I'll update after I do my Sat morning final 'cap.

Buys:
Utah St/A Force Un 54

 

[RBD]

Just finished Saturday update 'capping, no drops from the New Play, one spot added, Kent St/Iowa Ov.

Buys:
Miss St/Memphis Un 64
Utah St/A Force Un 54

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 3-1

The great run on New Play Unders comes to an end as it has it's first losing week (1-2) since I started posting it in Nov last year. It was 4-0 in my charts when I saw potential and started posting. It went 23-4 posted LY. It hit its first two spots this year for a 25-4 run (and, the 6 plays I posted that came off the board later in the week all won.)
So, was last week the beginning of a reversion to mediocrity, or just a bump in the road?
Hell if I know, if I did, I'd adjust my bet sizes accordingly this week.

Updated charts:

CP1: 8-13, Ov 6-7, Un 2-6

NP: 5-9, Ov 3-7, Un 2-2

OP: 1-6, Ov 0-1, Un 1-5

Looks like fade material across the board, but it's hard for me to fade Unders in CP1 and NP spots, they've been profitable in the past. This week's spots:

CP has Ov in Tex SA/Mem,W Virg/Ok, Iowa St/Baylor, Cal/Wash
Un in Texas Tech/Tex, U Mass/Coastal Car, Ind/W Kent, Kan/Drake, UCLA/Stan

NP has Ov in Clem/BC St, N Tex/La Tech
Un in Marsh/App St, Geo/Vandy, Boise St/Utah St, Ind/W Kent, Fla Atl/A Force

OP has Ov in Mia-Oh/Army
Un in La Laf/G South, Ind/Kent

I have an oddity - all three plays call for an Un in Ind/W Kent.
Too many indicators pointing one way makes me want to go contrarian, and as all three systems are looking like fades anyway thus far this year this may be a good spot to go opposite.

Both A Force and Utah St have been in Un in the NP this year, and both lost. This says, "Stay away."

Buys:
Tex Tech/Tex Ov 61
Geo/Vandy Un (wait to buy, it's gone up a bit; grab a 53 if it start's to go the other way)

 

[RBD]

From yesterday:
"So, was last week the beginning of a reversion to mediocrity (on the NP Un) or just a bump in the road?"
Hell if I know, if I did, I'd adjust my bet sizes accordingly this week.

The first of this weekend's Un spots went last night. I didn't buy it for a few reasons, including because I wanted to use it as a kind of barometer - if it won I would look to buy a few Unders from Saturday's card; if it lost, I'd look to fade. It lost. I'm adding a buy below.

Buys:
Tex Tech/Tex Ov 61 (good buy on this yesterday, it's at 61' and 62 today)
Geo/Vandy Un 54'
Ind/W Kent Ov 63

 

[RBD]

Saturday morning update:
No plays come off the board, two plays get added:
NP Ov in Buff/Old Dom, Un in Charleston/E Car.
No buys on either, yet.

Buys:
Tex Tech/Tex Ov 61
Geo/Vandy Un 54'
Ind/W Kent Ov 63

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-1

Review: I said I'd use the Thursday game as a kind of barometer for NP Unders - if it won I would look to buy a few Unders from Saturday's card; if it lost, I'd look to fade. It lost, but ufortunately I already had a buy notice out on Georgia so I couldn't get out of the play. And it was my only loss for the week.
But I'll take a 2-1 any day.

Record: 5-2

My best %'s are all fades:
CP Un 3-9
NP Ov 4-8
OP Ov 0-2 and Un 2-6
Nothing worth playing ON, except C1 spots at 4-1

Updated charts on the three plays for totals:
CP 11-18; Ov 8-9, Un 3-9
NP 8-12; Ov 4-8, Un 4-4
OP 2-8; 0-2 Un, 2-6 Ov

This week . . .

Thursday:
CP has Virg/Mia Un (I faded this 3-9 spot as a play in my other thread for small $/TV action/fun bets)
C2 has Virg +5' (no value at a record of 9-9)

Friday:
CP has Iowa/Maryland Ov (no value at 8-9)
NP has BYU/Utah Un 62 (play is at 62 or >, no play if the common # drops below 62) (no value at 4-4)
B has Iowa -3 (B spots, as Favs, is 3-6; might be worth a play there)
C2 has Hou +4'

Saturday:
CP has Ov in UNLV/Tex SA, Miss St/Tex A&M, B Green/Kent, Tex Tech/W Virg, A Force/N Mex
Un in E Mich/N Ill, Miss/'Bama, Tol/U Mass, Ark/Geo, Fla/Kentucky

NP has Ov in C Fla/Navy, Troy/S Car, BC/Clem
Un in Tenn/Mizoo, Miss/'Bama, Ark St/Geo South, Marsh/Mid Tenn St, W Kent/Mich St, Wash/Oregon

OP has Un in Miss/'Bama, Nev/Boise St, Marsh/Mid Tenn St

Records of teams that have already been in the same spot earlier this season:
CP has 'Bama 0-1, Tex SA 0-1, B Green 0-1, W Virg 0-1, Fla 0-1, A Force 1-0
NP has S Car 0-1, Clem 0-2, W Kent 0-1
All are possible fades, having lost already, except A Force.

Back with buys after I place them.

 

[RBD]

Saturday morning update: one game comes off the board, two games get added.
Troy/S Car no longer qualifies as a NP Ov.
And add Duke/NC and Fla/Kentucky as NP Unders.

With the BYU game staying Under last night NP Un's are back on the plus side at 5-4, so I'll look to use at least one of those today.
Question is - which one?
There are two morning spots, the Tennessee game and the Duke game.

The problem with the Duke game Under is I get two good offenses with two lousy defenses. Duke and North Carolina are a combined 6-2 to the Over this year. And last time these two met they put up 80 points.

Same problem with Tennessee/Missouri, two good offenses, two lousy defenses. And it's never fun buying Under with Missouri and their no huddle fast/pace style.
I might play these type of games in my other thread but not here, not with investment buys.

From last week's post:
"I have an oddity - all three plays call for an Un in Ind/W Kent. Too many indicators pointing one way makes me want to go contrarian, and as all three systems are looking like fades anyway thus far this year this may be a good spot to go opposite."

I got a W fading that game, and have the same situation this week with Mississippi/Alabama. But I'm looking to buy a NP Un this week, not fade one. And 79' is a tough number to bet Over. Not to mention that matchups between two teams ranked in the top 25 are something like 11-2 to the Under this year. I don't want to jump on that already established trend, but I'm not looking to go against it either.

I'm going to start my day with a fade of a CP Under (4-9 this year)

Buys:
E Mich/N Illinois Ov 61