College Football buys for 2021

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 5-3

Faded a CP Un play that was 3-9. They went 6-0 on the day.
I've said it before - I don't like fading my Unders in CP or NP because they've won a lot for me.
It's a lesson I should not have needed a repeat of.

And I thought the run on the NP Under was done after it had a 1-3 week, but no - it roared back with 6-3 last week.

CP is 19-22, Ov 10-13, Un 9-9

NP is 15-16, Ov 5-9, Un 10-7

OP is 4-9, Ov 0-2, Un 4-7

CP this week:

Over in W Virg/Baylor, Fla Atl/UAB, San Jose St/Col St, Penn St/Iowa, S 'Bama/Tex St, N Dame/V Tech

Under in Hou/Tulane, CC/Ark St, Mich St/Rutgers, N Ill/Tol, G Tech/Duke, Old Dom/Marsh, Fla St/NC,
U Conn/U Mass, Ore St/Wash St, TCU/Tex Tech, 'Bama/Tex A&M

Back with the rest after I do my Friday morning 'capping.

Early buy on N Ill/Tol Un. It opened at 55/54, the board is split right now, 53 & 52' readily available.
CP Un spot is 9-9 now after last week's sweep and each of these teams are 1-0 in this spot.


Buys:
N Ill/Tol Un 53

 

[RBD]

New Play today has . . .
Ov in W Virg, UTEP, V Tech, N Ill, E Car, Geo St
Un in W Kent, Old Dom, Nev

NP records: Ov 5-9, Un 10-7

Still just the one buy for now.

Buys:
N Ill/Tol Un 53

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
A 30 pt first half had me on a bad pace for Un 53, but a scoreless third quarter got me back in line, and a 12 pt fourth sealed the deal for a double digit win.

Record: 6-3

Updated charts:

CP is 31-27, Ov 14-15, Un 17-12
NP is 19-21, Ov 8-12, Un 11-9
OP is 6-12, Ov 1-2, Un 5-10
SP is 12-16, Ov 9-8, Un 3-8

CP is steady as usual with Overs hovering around .500 and Unders showing a nice profit.
Best fade material is SP Un and any OP spots.

This week . . .

CP has Ov in B Green/N Ill, UAB/S Miss, Purdue/Iowa, Vandy/S Car, Rice/Tex SA, Army/Wisc
Un in Tulsa/S Fla, UCF/Cin, W Kent/Old Dom, BC St/BC, La Tech/UTEP

NP has Ov in Clem/Syr, S Diego St/S Jose St, Troy/Tex St
Un in W Kent/Old Dom, Miss/Tenn

OP has Un in Marsh/N Tex

SP has Ov in S Diego St/S Jose St, Neb/Minn, UCF/Cin, Fresno St/Wyoming, Kentucky/Georgia, UCLA/Wash, Az St/Utah
Un in Purdue/Iowa, W Kent/Old Dom, Vandy/S Car, Tex Tech/Kan, Utah St/UNLV, La Tech/UTEP

I don't trust any of the NP Unders this week.
Miss/Tenn are each 0-1 in this spot this season and this game could hit triple digits.
W Kentucky is already 0-2 in this spot this year.

Back with buys after I figure out which play(s) I want to use.

UPDATE: Two strong %'s say take Cin Un (CP at 58%, and another spot I chart in my logbook at 60%.)

Buys:
UCF/Cin Un 58

 

[RBD]

Saturday morning update.
No plays get bumped, I have three added plays:

NP has Ov in Tulsa/S Fla, Wisc/Army.
OP has Much St/Indy Ov

UPDATE: Forgot to add Utah St/UNLV as a NP Un.

With last night's two losses, NP Ov goes to 8-14, a good fade at 63%.
With last night's loss, OP goes to 6-13; Ov 1-2, Un 5-11, a solid fade.

Good move on the early buy for Cincy, picked up 1' to 2 pts.

No new buys right now I hope to have at least one more later today.

Buys:
UCF/Cin Un 58

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 6-4

Shut it down for the day after the Cincy loss. Like I said in my other thread:
"The Bearcats are one of my fav teams to use in Unders because Fickell, with a lead late in the game, usually plays a ball control/run out the clock type of offense. But after watching last week's game he has clearly been converted to the "You have to run up the score to impress the committee" type of HC."

This sucks because I have Cincy in another strong play this week, but once bitten, once . . .

Updated charts:

CP 35-34, Ov 15-20, Un 20-14

NP 24-24, Ov 10-15, Un 14-9

OP 6-14, Ov 1-3, Un 5-11

As usual, main plays CP & NP are playing out as usual, Overs no value, Unders solid W %.

This week . . .

CP has Overs in Wash/Az, Ill/Penn St, Wisc/Purdue, Ok St/Iowa St, Mia-Oh/Ball St, S Diego St/AF
Un in U Mass/Fla St, LSU/Miss, E Car/Hou, Temple/S Fla, W Kent/Fla Int

NP has Ov in S Jose St/UNLV
Un in Fla Atl/Char
(Those are Thur night spots; I'll post Fri & Sat spots tomorrow)

No OP spots this week, which sucks, they're a really good fade.

No buys yet.

 

[RBD]

Both NP spots won last night, Ov now 11-15, Un 15-9.

Here are all NP spots for this weekend:
Ov has Ill/Penn St, Ohio St/Indy
Un has Col St/Utah St, Kent St/Ohio, W Kent/Fla Int, N Mex St/Haw

I have four NP Under spots (62%) to choose from, BUT . . .
3 of the 4 have already lost in this spot this season, Utah St, New Mex St, and W Kent (WK has lost twice and is 1-2.)
That leaves me with Kent St/Ohio.
The line opened at approx. 64 and has been rising steadily, common # is 66' with a few 66 and 67 out there. I'll wait, worst case I'll get a 66 if it drops. I'll post my final number tomorrow. Also may have some FCS buys, if not here then in my other thread.

Saturday morning update: One play comes off the board, no additions. Ohio St/Indy no longer qualifies as a NP.

Good move waiting on the Kent St game, 67 is all across the board, one of my outs has a 68 right now. I'll wait a little longer to buy, still have 2 hours until kickoff, see if it goes up a little more. If not I'll use 67 since it's the common number.

Update #2: Waiting was the right move 68' all across the board now. Bought it at that number.

Good luck to all the Mad Jackers this weekend.


Buys:
Kent St/Ohio Un 68'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a W with Ohio Under.
Record: 7-4

Had Un 68'; with 24 pts at the half I was looking okay.
Got tight after a 24 pt 3rd quarter but it landed on 61.
Good call on anticipating movement and not buying at 66' when posted; didn't matter with 61 total pts scored but it was nice knowing while watching the game that I was still safe even if a late TD was scored.

Updated charts:

CP 40-40, Ov 16-25, Un 24-15

NP 29-27, Ov 11-17, Un 18-10

OP 6-14, Ov 1-3, Un 5-11

As usual, Unders are solid in my top two spots (61% & 64%), Overs are worth a look as fades (61% & 60%)
Second week in a row with nothing in the third spot, OP's, was hoping for some Unders to fade there.

Here's what I'm choosing from this week:

CP has Ov in Rutgers/Ill, Iowa/Wisc, Haw/Utah St, Wyoming/San Jose St, Boise St/Col St, Kentucky/Miss St
Un has Navy/Tulsa, Tex/Baylor, Cin/Tulane, Mizoo/Vandy, Fla Int/Marsh

NP has Ov in Troy/Coastal, Indy/Maryland, S Miss/Mid Tenn St, Col/Ore, SMU/Hou, Fresno St/ San Diego St
Un in V Tech/G Tech, Mizoo/Vandy, Char/W Kent, UCLA/Utah

I have to consider Un in the Mizoo/Vandy game as it qualifies as a play in both CP (61%) and NP (64%.)
I like the spot but don't like that I'm late getting 'capping work done this week and missed the best #.

I like the fade on the SMU/Hou NP Ov spot. It's strong enough on its own at 60% but it also fits something else I track with a solid record sitting at 62%.

Back with buys after I look a little deeper and make some decisions.

 

[RBD]

Saturday morning update.
NP, Missouri Vandy comes off the board, and I have two add-ons:
NP Ov has N Tex/Rice, LA Tech/ Old Dom.

Not sure if I'll have any investment plays today.

 

[RBD]

Recap: No plays last week.
Record 7-4

Updated charts:

CP: 47-44; Ov 19-28 (40%), Un 28-16 (63%)

NP: 36-31; Ov 16-20 (44%), Un 20-11 (64%)

OP: 6-14; Ov 1-3, Un 5-11

FCS: 38-22; Ov 11-10, Un 20-11 (64%)

Same as year after year - I do well with Unders, not so with Overs.
CP Overs usually come in around 50% but are a good fade at 60% this season.
NP, expected to crash this season after a great season last year, still holding up at a solid 64%.
FCS only three week's worth of charting but Unders there are doing well also.

This week's spots:

CP has Ov in Ok St/W Virg, Penn St/Maryland, Iowa/N'West
Un in Wake F/NC, LSU/'Bama,, Hou/S Fla

NP has Ov in Army/A Force, UNLV/N Mex
Un in Utah/Stanford, Mich St/Purdue

OP has Ov in San Diego St/Haw, Un in Mid Tenn St/W Kentucky

FCS: most totals aren't out yet, but tonight's Del St/Morgan St game qualifies as an Over.

Don't like Ov in Iowa with their pitiful offense.

Don't like Un in the 'Bama game. The Tide may score 60 + themselves because
A) running up the score for style points due to being ranked 2nd and . . .
B) Saban said today that he doesn't seek revenge for being disrespected by Flowers for Ogernon two years ago, which means it IS still on his mind and he'd like nothing more than to crush him to further humiliate the fired-before-the-season-ended LSU coach.

Going to lean on FCS Unders this week, as it's my best % spot.
Back with buys after the lines are out.

Update 11/5: Utah/Stanford total has dropped 2 pts, no longer qualifies as a NP Un,

 

[RBD]

Saturday morning update: No games come off the board but I do have four additional plays.
NP Under has W Forest/NC, Ohio St/Neb, Utah St/N Mex St, Marshall/ Fla Atl.

The NC game looks to be a high scorer from every angle, but it hits on two spots, CP Un 28-16 (63%) and NP Un 20-11 (64%) so I'm on it.

Ohio State is another team who might be looking for style points today, but their game with Nebraska also fits NP Un and I feel like riding a couple of those if not all of them.

Update: Correction, 68 on Ohio St game.(Bookmaker has 69 at -108, but that number is not readily available to most people.)

Update #2: Added mid-day buys.

Buys:
Wake Forest/North Carolina Un 77'
Ohio State/Nebraska Un 68
Mid Tenn St/W Kent Ov 66'
Utah St/New Mexico St Un 72'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 3-1
Record: 10-5

Opened up a bit last week because I had stuff I really liked.
Had two, rare, OP spots (6-14, Ov 1-3, Un 5-11) with Mid Tenn St/W Kent Un and San Diego St/Haw Ov.
Been waiting three weeks to get one of these, and they didn't disappoint.
At 5-11 Un, I used the fade on Mid Tenn St/W Kentucky Un as an investment play. The number was 66'.
They scored 28 in Q1, had 45 at halftime and 62 at the end of Q3. Slowed down in Q4 but got enough for an easy W. And the Hawaii spot lost too, staying Under by 18 pts, making that spot 6-16 now, a 72% fade.
Hope to see more of them this week. If not, I still have some really strong stats to use for November, with NP Un still doing great at 64%, FCS Unders at 64%, and a subset of a play I chart that's at 19-7, 73%.

Updated charts:
CP 49-49; Ov 20-31 (40%), Un 29-18 (61%)
NP 40-34; Ov 17-21, Un 23-13 C (64%)
FCS 47-36, Ov 16-19, Un 31-17 (64%)
OP 6-16, Ov 1-4, Un 5-12

Last week, I wrote: "CP Overs usually come in around 50% but are a good fade at 60% this season."
Still working, they were 1-3 last week.

Back with this week's plays after I do my 'capping.

Update, 11/9: No buy for me, but for record keeping and in case anyone is looking for an angle on one of tonight's games, NP Un has Ohio/E Mich at 61' or > (most places at 61' right now, a few 62 out there, too.)

 

[RBD]

No buys for me last night. The one play that qualified, NP Un with Ohio, won.
I didn't make a buy on it here because though NP Unders were at 23-13 none of those games was a Tuesday night game. Teams are used to playing on Saturdays, early week games have a different dynamic. And MAC games are usually not fun to use an Under on.
But, NP Un is 24-13 now, so maybe an opportunity lost there.

Today I have two spots that qualify:
NP Un has Kent St/C Mich
OP Ov has Toledo/B Green

I'm not wild about passing up on another NP Un, but you KNOW what happens if you jump on a spot that you passed on the previous night and it won - Johnny Come Lately usually loses?

OP spots are a great fade at 6-16 (72%) but Overs are just 1-4 of that record. Nice %, but not a lot of data.

CP spots:
Ov has Rutgers/Ind, UAB/Marsh, S Miss/Tex SA, Minn/Iowa, Georgia/Tenn, Utah St/San Jose St
Un has N Car/Pitt, Hou/Temple, Stanford/Ore St, Kansas/Tex

Update, Thursday morning: NP Un has NC/Pit tonight. After last night's L, these are 24-14. I'm off this spot, hell, on a good night either of these two offenses can put up most of 72 all by themselves.

I'll be back with the rest of the plays that qualify tomorrow morning.

No buys yet.

 

[RBD]

I didn't buy it, didn't trust the #, but NC/Pit stayed Un last night, making NP Unders 25-14 now, 64%.

Below, all the spots that qualify this week. Just finished 'capping NP spots and there are so many games that qualify I ran the #'s twice to make sure I wasn't off on my work. Unfortunately, most are Overs.

CP spots:
Ov has Rutgers/Ind, UAB/Marsh, S Miss/Tex SA, Minn/Iowa, Georgia/Tenn, Utah St/San Jose St
Un has N Car/Pitt, Hou/Temple, Stanford/Ore St, Kansas/Tex

NP spots:
Overs in Clem, Rutgers, E Car, SMU, Coastal, Tex St, Iowa, Fla Int, Tex A&M, Fresno St
Unders in Utah/Az, Purdue/Ohio St, Maryland/Mich St, Kentucky/Vandy, NC St/Wake Forest

No OP spots, damn. At 7-16 (5-12 Under) I was really hoping for some choices to fade.

Updated charts:
CP 50-49; Ov 20-31 (40%), Un 30-18 (62%)
NP 42-35; Ov 18-21, Un 25-14 C (64%)
FCS 47-36, Ov 16-19, Un 31-17 (64%)
OP 7-16, Ov 2-4, Un 5-12

No buys yet.

 

[RBD]

Saturday morning update:
One play comes off the board, NP Un NC St/Wake, one NP gets added, Duke/Virginia Over.

Update: Forgot to add, OP has the Houston game as an Over.

I haven't made any buys yet, not sure if I will, still looking over the card and doing some more work.

 

[RBD]

No buys last week.
Early notice on a CP Un (32-19; 62%) Fla/Mizoo.
I cannot do the handicapping work on New Play spots, too early in the week and they're too volatile,
but early week #'s say this spot will fit as a New Play Un too (27-16; 62%)

I have no feel for which way this line will go. It's 69' all across the board.
I'm waiting, monitoring it. I'll post if/when I buy it.

 

[RBD]

Updated charts:

CP 55-53; Ov 23-34, Un 32-19 (62%)

NP 48-41; Ov 21-25, Un 27-16 (62%)

OP 7-17; Ov 2-5, Un 5-12 (70% fade)

As usual, Unders in CP and NP are my best spots, both doing very well.
Fading any OP spot gives a nice W %.

I still haven't pulled the trigger on buying the Fla game Un.
It fits three different plays I use, all three with a solid W %, but I'm hesitant after watching their D give up 52 pts to an FCS team last week - an FCS team!! - in a game that saw a total of 122 pts scored.
And it's not like Samford is a decent FCS team, they're 4-5 in FCS play, avg'ing 36 PPG.

After looking at other factors last night, I simply don't think 69' is enough to invest in an Under.
I'll struggle with this call over the next four days, but leaning towards looking elsewhere for a buy.

This weeks spots:

CP has Ov in Rutgers/Penn St, Ill/Iowa, UAB/Tex SA, La-Laf/Lib, Wyoming/Utah St, New Mex/Boise St
Un in W Mich/E Mich, N Mex St/Kentucky, Wake/Clem, Mich St/Ohio St, Ark/'Bama, Syr/NC St, Fla/Mizoo,
LA Mon/LSU

OP has Ov in Mia-Oh/B Green

I have two spots active tonight. Looking closer I see . . .

NP has Un in W Mich/E Mich.
As I said in last week's post, mid-week MAC games are no fun when playing Unders.
NP Unders are strong with a 62% W % but it's just 1-1 on mid-week MAC games.
Overall the MAC on Tue/Wed is 8-3 (72%) to the Over.
And the three Unders came by a combined 4' pts.
The eight Overs surpassed the total by an avg of > 18 pts
NOT strong factors for buying an Un.

OP has Ov in Mia-Oh/B Green. This spot is 2-5, a solid 71% fade, BUT . . . fading means buying the Under and because of the stats I just detailed above I'm not investing in MAC mid-week Unders.

No buys for me tonight.

 

[RBD]

Record: 10-5

Updated charts:

CP 55-53; Ov 23-34, Un 32-19 (62%)

NP 49-41; Ov 21-25, Un 28-16 (63%)

OP 7-18; Ov 2-6, Un 5-12 (70% fade)

This week:

CP has . . .
Ov in Rutgers/Penn St, Ill/Iowa, UAB/Tex SA, La-Laf/Lib, Wyoming/Utah St, New Mex/Boise St

Un in W Mich/E Mich, N Mex St/Kentucky, Wake/Clem, Mich St/Ohio St, Ark/'Bama, Syr/NC St, Fla/Mizoo,
LA Mon/LSU


NP has . . .
Ov in E Car/Navy, LA-Laf/Liberty, Aub/S Car

Un in Kent St/Ak, Mich St/Ohio St, Fla Atl/W Kent, Fla/Mizoo, Kansas/TCU


OP has . . .
Ov in W Forest/Clem

Un in Tex St/CC, Baylor/K St

Buys:
Baylor/ K St Ov 50

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 10-6

Florida Under qualifies as both NP and CP.
BOTH hitting over 60%.
AND it hits on a third system I have, BUT . . .
I talked myself right out of an easy winner.
Instead I used Ov 50 with Baylor, a strong fade at 5-12. Looking at the box score seeing 24 pts scored at halftime you would think I was in a good position, but, I wasn't. Baylor's QB pulled a hammy late second quarter, changing the dynamics of the game, probably didn't matter, K St QB Skylar was sucking anyway.

My strength, NP Unders went 5-1 and I had an 0-1 day. Ugh.

Updated charts:

CP Ov 27-36, Un 35-23 (60%)

NP Ov 23-27, Un 32-17 (65%)

OP Ov 3-5, Un 7-12 (63% fade)

This week's spots:

CP has Ov has Fresno St/ San Jose St (Thur game), Boise St/ San Diego St (Friday), Utah St/New Mex (Friday), Navy/Temple, Haw/Wyoming, Ind/Purdue, Ok/Ok St

Un in S Fla/UCF (Friday), Ak/Tol, Tex Tech/Baylor, LA Tech/Rice, U Mass/ New Mex St, Wisc/Min

NP has Ov in Miss/Miss St (Thur), K St/Tex (Friday), Wash St/Wash (Friday), Tex Tech/Baylor, Fla Int/S Miss, Tex A&M/LSU, Tulane/Mem, Ok/Ok St

Un in E Mich/C Mich (Friday), Maryland/Rutgers, W Kent/Marsh

OP has Ov in Ohio/B Green (Friday)Fla Int/S Miss; Un in Clem/S Car

Buys:
Tex Tech/Baylor Un 52
LA Tech/Rice Un 53
U Mass/N Mex St Un (wait to buy)
Maryland/Rutgers Un 53

 

[RBD]

Friday morning update: Two NP games come off the board, no longer qualify as plays: Tex Ov, C Mich Un;
one NP added, Utah St/N Mex Ov.

Adding at least one buy later today.

Updated charts after Thursday games:

CP Ov 27-37, Un 35-23 (60%)

NP Ov 23-27, Un 32-17 (65%)

OP Ov 3-5, Un 7-12 (63% fade)

Update: Sorry, didn't get home in time to post a play, missed kickoff.

Buys:
Tex Tech/Baylor Un 52
LA Tech/Rice Un 53
U Mass/N Mex St Un 59'
Maryland/Rutgers Un 53

 

[RBD]

Saturday morning update, no games come off the board, four games added.
NP Ov adds Navy/Temple, Mid Tenn St/Fla Atl
NP Un adds Ohio St/Michigan, Nev/Colorado St.

Buys:
Tex Tech/Baylor Un 52
LA Tech/Rice Un 53
U Mass/N Mex St Un 59'
Maryland/Rutgers Un 53