Conference Championship Games

[MadJack]

lamar jackson can't hit the broad side of a barn.

Not bad for a running back

i just can't bet the over in a playoff game he's involved in

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Points per Game | TeamRankings.com

NFL Football points per game, by team.

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Ravens #2 scoring offense in the NFL. KC # 14 scoring offense in the NFL
Home scoring offense Ravens 32.1 per game
Road scoring offense KC 21.4

QB Rating 2023

NFL Football Player Stats & Stats Leaders - QB Rating

Free NFL football player stats and stats leaders in simple, easy to read tables. This page tracks qb rating statistics.

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Lamar #4 103.6
Mahomes #14 93.4

I know you said playoff game but that was then and this is now.

I'm not betting the game, just having fan action which is plenty for me.

Nice hit on that BJ hand. If that was me I would have split the other 8's and the dealer would have made a 5 card 21 to crush me. That's how I roll in the casino. And I never win when I have to dig.

 

[Smitty]

Not bad for a running back

he's a terrific running back. great athlete. horrible qb. even when he does complete a pass, generally the receiver has to dive for it or otherwise make a great catch. he never hits a guy in stride. he'd be perfect for the winged t.

I know you said playoff game but that was then and this is now.

if you actually watched last week (and, obviously, you watched the game) you'd notice that he is still an awful thrower of the football. i remember the one play... he had a guy WIDE open about 15 yards downfield directly in front of him... and the receiver had to dive to the ground to make the catch. he is wildly inaccurate. and even worse in the playoffs.

and, hey, this is certainly the worst kc team in a while and anything is possible. it ain't like i'm betting the house on kc. i'm betting half the house. against baltimore.

Nice hit on that BJ hand. If that was me I would have split the other 8's and the dealer would have made a 5 card 21 to crush me. That's how I roll in the casino. And I never win when I have to dig.

some casinos, including bellagio, limit you to 4 hands on splits. otherwise of course i would have kept splitting. and, yeah, that probably would have caused me to lose it all. luckily we will never know.

 

[MadJack]

Yeah you’re right. I don’t know what I was thinking about, he’s horrible.

His last 2 games.

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we just have to disagree.

 

[rocky mountain]

he's a terrific running back. great athlete. horrible qb. even when he does complete a pass, generally the receiver has to dive for it or otherwise make a great catch. he never hits a guy in stride. he'd be perfect for the winged t.


if you actually watched last week (and, obviously, you watched the game) you'd notice that he is still an awful thrower of the football. i remember the one play... he had a guy WIDE open about 15 yards downfield directly in front of him... and the receiver had to dive to the ground to make the catch. he is wildly inaccurate. and even worse in the playoffs.

and, hey, this is certainly the worst kc team in a while and anything is possible. it ain't like i'm betting the house on kc. i'm betting half the house. against baltimore.


some casinos, including bellagio, limit you to 4 hands on splits. otherwise of course i would have kept splitting. and, yeah, that probably would have caused me to lose it all. luckily we will never know.

Stop picking on Jack ...Smitty.. your stirring up shit. He's a super fan , don't turn his purple 💜 to red . That being said this fly on the wall is enjoying it.

 

[Smitty]

Stop picking on Jack ...Smitty.. your stirring up shit. He's a super fan , don't turn his purple 💜 to red . That being said this fly on the wall is enjoying it.

I'm pretty sure Jack is enough of an adult not to take it personally when I say the qb of his favorite team is incapable of hitting a receiver in stride. I mean, I haven't been banned. Yet.

Don't worry... Jalen Hurts isn't much better.

See, I'm an equal opportunity offender.

In all fairness, this is a league-wide problem. QB play might just be at an all-time low. Which would explain why, despite every single rule in the book designed to help offenses, scoring was down this year.

 

[Smitty]

Ok, the moment you've all been waiting for... Smitty's Conference Championship selections. Guaranteed to all win, every single one of them, OR YOUR MONEY BACK!!!

AFC
In the interest of time, I'm going to try not to rehash everything I wrote last week about how bad Lamar Jackson is in the playoffs. It all still stands, and he was bad again last week. If you actually pay attention, you'll see what I'm talking about. Don't just listen to the announcers rave about how amazing he is. Really pay attention. Watch how almost every single completion his receivers have to break stride to make the catch. They lose a LOT of YAC because of his poor throws, and that's when they're actually able to make the reception. His receiving corps should win the MVP award, not him.

Anyway, all that said... and KC ain't all that great this year either. Especially on offense. They did average 7.7 yards/play last week (they averaged 9 yards/play through about the first 3.5 quarters), but that was against a depleted Bills defense. KC has one stand-out receiver... Tay-Tay's boyfriend. Can't think of his name. But he plays TE. Baltimore hasn't been great covering TEs. Here's their last 8 games.

The ghost of Dalton Schultz: 5 catches on 7 targets for 43 yards (and if I recall correctly, he flat-out dropped one that would have been good for 15 yards)
Pat Freiermuth: 2 catches on 2 targets for 21 yards
Durham Smythe (who??): 3 catches on 3 targets for 54 yards
George Kittle: 7 catches on 10 targets for 126 yards
Luke Farrell & Evan Engram: 5 catches on 7 targets for 56 yards
Davis Allen (who??): 4 catches on 5 targets for 50 yards
Gerald Everett: 4 catches on 4 targets for 43 yards
Tanner Hudson (again, WHO?): 4 catches on 4 targets for 49 yards

Ok, I'm dedicated, but I'm not going through all 18 games. I think the point is established. Baltimore struggles when it comes to covering TEs. Cumulatively, that's 34 catches on 42 targets (81%)!! and 10.5 yards/att.

Sure, ever since he started dating Tay-Tay, Kelce has been good for a few drops per game. But, man, he's going to have some opportunities in this one.

Other than that, Baltimore has been excellent against the pass. They allow 5.9 yards/att, tops in the league.

In fact, defensively. both teams put up VERY similar numbers. KC allows 6.0 yards/att, which is 3rd in the league. Baltimore led the league with 60 sacks, and KC was 2nd with 57. And both teams are vulnerable to the run, allowing 4.5 yards/rush (24th & 25th in the league).

We know Baltimore will run the ball. But, other than Jackson, they don't have an explosive back. Edwards only averaged 4.1 yards/carry. And if the corpse of Dalvin Cook beats me, so be it.

On the other side of the ball, Andy Reid showed that he remembers to run the ball when he has an advantage doing so. They ran 24 of 47 plays last week (although a few were probably Mahomes scrambles) and Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire combined for 128 yards on 17 carries (7.5 yards/carry!). Pacheco is dealing with ankle & toe injuries, so that's not ideal. He's listed as questionable.

One important absence for KC... All-Pro Guard Joe Thuney was hurt against Buffalo, and will miss this game. Sounds like that will be more critical in pass protection, where he was outstanding.

Ok, one last point so I can wrap this up and go cook some dinner before I get yelled at.

As I mentioned, both teams have a lot of sacks. Certainly helped by the fact that opponents often have to pass against them. You'd think with his scrambling ability, Jackson would be at least as good as Mahomes at avoiding the rush. But he's sacked on 11% of pass attempts, while Mahomes is only sacked on 4% of his pass attempts. Jackson simply doesn't have the pocket presence that Mahomes does, and Spagnuolo is going to bring pressure.

KC (+4) 6 units
KC (ML) 2 to win 3.3
Under (44.5) 3 units
Baltimore TT under (24.5) 6 to win 5
KC 2nd Half TT under (9.5) 2 to win 2.2
Jackson rushing yards over (64.5) 3.6 to win 3
Jackson passing yards under (210.5) 10.5 to win 10
Andrews TD 6 to win 12.8

Here's a weird one I just saw...

Will both teams make a 33+ yard fg? No is -140 (yes is +105). With these two kickers, seems very odd that "no" is -140. So, ok, I'll bite.

No 2.8 to win 2

 

[rocky mountain]

I'm pretty sure Jack is enough of an adult not to take it personally when I say the qb of his favorite team is incapable of hitting a receiver in stride. I mean, I haven't been banned. Yet.

Don't worry... Jalen Hurts isn't much better.

See, I'm an equal opportunity offender.

In all fairness, this is a league-wide problem. QB play might just be at an all-time low. Which would explain why, despite every single rule in the book designed to help offenses, scoring was down this year.

An offender indeed!

 

[Smitty]

Hard to believe, but I forgot a few.

Valdez-Scantling under (14.5) rec yards 6 units
Beckham Jr under (21.5) rec yards 7.2 to win 6
Kelce over (62.5) rec yards 2.3 to win 2. This one pains me. It feels too easy. And, as I mentioned, he has a lot of drops now. But I still gotta bet it.

 

[Smitty]

NFC

Reminder, I have this in already:

Hutchinson over (.75) sacks 6.3 to win 6. I'm a little concerned/surprised that it's only up to -115 now.

Oh, and a couple months ago, I bet SF to win the NFC at -110. So I essentially have them on the ML for this game at -110. Am I an idiot for thinking about betting more on them at -7? Or should I just let that bet ride?

Hopefully I can keep this one a little briefer than the AFC.

Detroit has been a nice story this year. But now they're in the deep end of the pool, taking on the class of the NFC.

A couple notes on SF. As I mentioned last week, they haven't covered a home game since October 8. That's now 6 straight home games without covering the spread. And Brock Purdy has similar splits to Baker Mayfield... his TD/INT ratio is a LOT better on the road (18/4) than at home (13/7).

However, Purdy averages 11.0 yards/att at home vs 8.6/att on the road. And Detroit is 31st in the league, allowing 7.8 yards/att. They might pick off Purdy once or twice, but he may still burn them for a lot of yards. Especially with Samuel in the lineup. Detroit's run defense has been very solid, allowing 3.7 yards/rush, 3rd in the league. Obviously they will be tested in this game. SF averages 4.8 yards/rush, which is 4th in the league. Detroit played 5 games against teams in the top 10 and were 1-4 ATS in those games. 0-3 against teams in the top 6.

The real secret to Detroit's success this year, and this is no surprise under Dan Campbell, is that they can run the ball. They average 4.6 yards/carry, which is 5th in the league. And they have 2 very good RBs, with Montgomery and Gibbs. If they are going to be successful Sunday, it's going to be on the ground. SF is not as good at stopping the run as the last few years, giving up 4.1 yards/rush, 14th in the league. SF is still very solid against the pass, giving up 6.4 yards/att (5th in the league). Oh, and they tied for the league lead with 22 INTs. I'm sure you remember the Jared Goff splits I shared last week... he has a better TD/INT ratio at home, and averages a full yard per attempt more at home.

Ok, in the interest of keeping this brief(ish).... I like SF to light up that porous Detroit pass defense and get a lead, forcing Goff to throw more than he wants to, and he's going to make some mistakes, allowing SF to add to their lead.

SF (-7) 7.2 to win 6
SF (-16.5) 2 to win 4.8
SF TT over (30.5) 6.9 to win 6
Gibbs over (49.5) rushing yards 4 units
Gibbs over (77.5) rush+rec yards 4.2 to win 4
Purdy over (279.5) passing yards 6.9 to win 6

 

[Smitty]

AFC

Given Jackson's propensity for taking sacks... I just placed these.

Omenihu over (0.25) sacks 2 to win 2.5
Chris Jones over (0.25) sacks 2.3 to win 2
Karlaftis over (0.25) sacks 3 to win 3

 

[America's Team]

Thank you sir, was dying to hear the other side. Seems everyone and their mother is on Det and Balt. Seems the narrative for supporting that is very convincing. I hate narratives. Think i will tail you.

NBL

 

[Smitty]

Thank you sir, was dying to hear the other side. Seems everyone and their mother is on Det and Balt. Seems the narrative for supporting that is very convincing. I hate narratives. Think i will tail you.

NBL

welcome to the dark side. just be forewarned... we will get fucked on a last-second play of some sort.

the love for baltimore reminds me of the love for dallas before the GB game.... just completely inexplicable, based on previous playoff performances.

and it would take another REALLY bad game from purdy for detroit to keep that one close.

 

[ejthree]

NFC

Reminder, I have this in already:

Hutchinson over (.75) sacks 6.3 to win 6. I'm a little concerned/surprised that it's only up to -115 now.

Oh, and a couple months ago, I bet SF to win the NFC at -110. So I essentially have them on the ML for this game at -110. Am I an idiot for thinking about betting more on them at -7? Or should I just let that bet ride?

Hopefully I can keep this one a little briefer than the AFC.

Detroit has been a nice story this year. But now they're in the deep end of the pool, taking on the class of the NFC.

A couple notes on SF. As I mentioned last week, they haven't covered a home game since October 8. That's now 6 straight home games without covering the spread. And Brock Purdy has similar splits to Baker Mayfield... his TD/INT ratio is a LOT better on the road (18/4) than at home (13/7).

However, Purdy averages 11.0 yards/att at home vs 8.6/att on the road. And Detroit is 31st in the league, allowing 7.8 yards/att. They might pick off Purdy once or twice, but he may still burn them for a lot of yards. Especially with Samuel in the lineup. Detroit's run defense has been very solid, allowing 3.7 yards/rush, 3rd in the league. Obviously they will be tested in this game. SF averages 4.8 yards/rush, which is 4th in the league. Detroit played 5 games against teams in the top 10 and were 1-4 ATS in those games. 0-3 against teams in the top 6.

The real secret to Detroit's success this year, and this is no surprise under Dan Campbell, is that they can run the ball. They average 4.6 yards/carry, which is 5th in the league. And they have 2 very good RBs, with Montgomery and Gibbs. If they are going to be successful Sunday, it's going to be on the ground. SF is not as good at stopping the run as the last few years, giving up 4.1 yards/rush, 14th in the league. SF is still very solid against the pass, giving up 6.4 yards/att (5th in the league). Oh, and they tied for the league lead with 22 INTs. I'm sure you remember the Jared Goff splits I shared last week... he has a better TD/INT ratio at home, and averages a full yard per attempt more at home.

Ok, in the interest of keeping this brief(ish).... I like SF to light up that porous Detroit pass defense and get a lead, forcing Goff to throw more than he wants to, and he's going to make some mistakes, allowing SF to add to their lead.

SF (-7) 7.2 to win 6
SF (-16.5) 2 to win 4.8
SF TT over (30.5) 6.9 to win 6
Gibbs over (49.5) rushing yards 4 units
Gibbs over (77.5) rush+rec yards 4.2 to win 4
Purdy over (279.5) passing yards 6.9 to win 6

 

[America's Team]

welcome to the dark side. just be forewarned... we will get fucked on a last-second play of some sort.

the love for baltimore reminds me of the love for dallas before the GB game.... just completely inexplicable, based on previous playoff performances.

and it would take another REALLY bad game from purdy for detroit to keep that one close.

i chickened out and took the over bought down to 42.5 lol.

 

[America's Team]

it was looking so good, i should have stuck with ya

 

[Smitty]

it was looking so good, i should have stuck with ya

when in doubt, tail smitty in the playoffs.

i say that knowing full well that SF is probably about to play like absolute garbage.

this morning i bet SF -2.5 over KC in the SB. one down....

 

[Slumdog]

Great call smitty. 🥂

 

[Smitty]

Great call smitty. 🥂

just missed going 3-0 on the sack props when jackson tossed it away at the last second as jones was pulling him down.

 

[JustFootball]

Excellent calls Smitty. I was on the wrong side for this one, but I have enjoyed following your analysis and picks throughout bowl season and, now, the NFL postseason. You were spot on re Ravens and Jackson. It's tough for Ravens fans to view objectively because Lamar has moments of playmaking brilliance. But, fundamentally, he is not a good QB, especially in terms of making the fairly basic throws that **must** be made, as well as managing the game and changing dynamics of the defense. Anyway, congrats on another great call. I won't even go into the 49ers debacle. Purdy is another empty suit---great when everything is going his way, but does not deliver consistently or in some clutch moments. Look forward to seeing your plays for SB.

 

[Smitty]

Excellent calls Smitty. I was on the wrong side for this one, but I have enjoyed following your analysis and picks throughout bowl season and, now, the NFL postseason. You were spot on re Ravens and Jackson. It's tough for Ravens fans to view objectively because Lamar has moments of playmaking brilliance. But, fundamentally, he is not a good QB, especially in terms of making the fairly basic throws that **must** be made, as well as managing the game and changing dynamics of the defense. Anyway, congrats on another great call. I won't even go into the 49ers debacle. Purdy is another empty suit---great when everything is going his way, but does not deliver consistently or in some clutch moments. Look forward to seeing your plays for SB.

yeah, purdy... i mean, gotta give him props for that 2nd half. especially after the debacle against baltimore, he could have folded today, down 17 at the half. off the top of my head, i only remember one complete miss in the 2nd half, on the deep crosser where his guy (don't remember who) was pretty open. even then, there was a short and a deep defender, but it was a decent-sized window and he missed it. that said, the fact that he was a serious contended for mvp was insane. absolutely insane. sooooo many weapons on that team. he just needs to be solid and not turn it over. it was fun seeing him running again. i remember he did more of that at iowa st. he's a decent athlete.

2 weeks to overanalyze the super bowl now. i was feeling good about my SF bet in the SB after the early game, expecting them to crush detroit and be laying at least 3 in the SB. now i see they are -1. as long as they don't win by 1 or 2, it doesn't matter. still, don't like getting a bad line. oh well.

i wouldn't be at all surprised if it plays out similar to the SF/Det game... purdy starts slow and KC is up at halftime. but KC just STRUGGLES to score in the 2nd half and SF may mount another comeback.

i gotta add everything up, but today may have been my first losing day in the playoffs. i missed on a lot of the props.