Cotton Bowl
- Thread starter hedgehog
- Start date
Texas needs to protect Ewers and they can win
This outright. If they allow alot of pressure on him It'll be a long night for the Longhorns.
This outright. If they allow alot of pressure on him It'll be a long night for the Longhorns.
Nobody is picking Texas and I can't quite understand why? Ohio State got smoked by Michigan and Texas beat Michigan at Michigan handily. Right now I am leaning Texas +6 or buy up to 7 not sure yet.
If Texas can somehow, some way put together a complete game, which they haven't done all year, they'll win. I know that's a big IF. So frustrating. Sark's stubbornness sticking with Ewers and his conservative play calling drives Longhorn fans nuts. I get being loyal to your QB, but Ewers limits Texas. A mobile, running QB gives teams fits.
There is no reason why Manning should not be getting at least 10-12 snaps a game. That would keep OSU off balance and make Texas more unpredictable. Can Texas win tonight? Yes, if they do something different. If they do the same things that we've seen against Clemson and ASU, they're going to get beat. 31-24 OSU, and I hope that I'm wrong.
There is no reason why Manning should not be getting at least 10-12 snaps a game. That would keep OSU off balance and make Texas more unpredictable. Can Texas win tonight? Yes, if they do something different. If they do the same things that we've seen against Clemson and ASU, they're going to get beat. 31-24 OSU, and I hope that I'm wrong.
No plays yet but my takes:
Lot of action on over and osu, but the spread won’t budge, and total has fallen
My math gets to a 25-22 osu win, these numbers feel like they’re luring you into texas and the under. For example, with nd / psu i had nd about 3 points better and 48-49 points… the numbers were close enough (nd slight fav until late thurs and total around 46-46.5) that it didnt feel like a trap.
With osu / tex, total seems 10 points too high and a fg game is almost a TD. And despite that, the majority seem to disagree with me, but the line moves make me want to get involved.
Finally - some prices on texas.
This money line is +180 thru +195, and books have / had texas in theory a 3-ish point fav over either psu or ND as thurs morning.
Adding to that, texas future price doesn’t make sense, EVEN AFTER the psu loss, they’re +450 thru +475. Needing a +185 win and a win as a 3 pt fav (figure -150 ML), that prices out to +375 or so. So the ML vs osu is either way too expensive or nd shouldnt be getting pts vs texas. Or some combination of the 2, i tend to think its the latter.
Do the offenses succumb to the defense? Like iu / nd or nd / uga, or do the offenses light it up? Either way, the only coach i trust less than sark is lane kif.
My view into yesterdays game was play the over in nd psu and the under tonight.
Feels like theres no middle ground, its either under 53-54 easily or both teams get to 28 and higher.
Both teams to score 25+ pts pays +225, thats a price that easily wins for that type of wager. Both teams score 30+ pays +475 , interesting note that i had both teans to score 25 in psu / nd at +475 and missed it by 1 pt. My point is in this game 30 seems to where the winner will get to first and last. So then its 31-24 or something?
The team totals are currently 29.5 and 22.5.
Thats all i got
Lot of action on over and osu, but the spread won’t budge, and total has fallen
My math gets to a 25-22 osu win, these numbers feel like they’re luring you into texas and the under. For example, with nd / psu i had nd about 3 points better and 48-49 points… the numbers were close enough (nd slight fav until late thurs and total around 46-46.5) that it didnt feel like a trap.
With osu / tex, total seems 10 points too high and a fg game is almost a TD. And despite that, the majority seem to disagree with me, but the line moves make me want to get involved.
Finally - some prices on texas.
This money line is +180 thru +195, and books have / had texas in theory a 3-ish point fav over either psu or ND as thurs morning.
Adding to that, texas future price doesn’t make sense, EVEN AFTER the psu loss, they’re +450 thru +475. Needing a +185 win and a win as a 3 pt fav (figure -150 ML), that prices out to +375 or so. So the ML vs osu is either way too expensive or nd shouldnt be getting pts vs texas. Or some combination of the 2, i tend to think its the latter.
Do the offenses succumb to the defense? Like iu / nd or nd / uga, or do the offenses light it up? Either way, the only coach i trust less than sark is lane kif.
My view into yesterdays game was play the over in nd psu and the under tonight.
Feels like theres no middle ground, its either under 53-54 easily or both teams get to 28 and higher.
Both teams to score 25+ pts pays +225, thats a price that easily wins for that type of wager. Both teams score 30+ pays +475 , interesting note that i had both teans to score 25 in psu / nd at +475 and missed it by 1 pt. My point is in this game 30 seems to where the winner will get to first and last. So then its 31-24 or something?
The team totals are currently 29.5 and 22.5.
Thats all i got
Actually to add - so much focus on how osu is sucker punching teams before the first Q starts and its 14-0 in the tunnels—why not texas plus pts or money line first half? Or even first quarter? It goes against everything—in texas’ two losses their offense was awful in the first half.
But ohio state halftime / full-time is -115 , a little cheap for the amount of conviction ohio state backers have.
So texas is either keeping up with osu at HT or its a low scoring 10-7 type deal. Either way a -115 ht / ft number is usually a +300 at some point in the first half.
But ohio state halftime / full-time is -115 , a little cheap for the amount of conviction ohio state backers have.
So texas is either keeping up with osu at HT or its a low scoring 10-7 type deal. Either way a -115 ht / ft number is usually a +300 at some point in the first half.
I ended up buying a point - over 50.5 -122 4x
Tex 1H also ++4
Q1 ML +146
Both 2x
If texas gets a lead i’ll play osu for sure
Tex 1H also ++4
Q1 ML +146
Both 2x
If texas gets a lead i’ll play osu for sure
Yes, thats the spirit, grabbed over 39.5 in the first half, and seriously thinking about adding over 42.5 to it now
