Round 4 plays (4pts):
Brendon De Jonge to beat Tommy Gainey -163 @ Paddy Power [available generally]
This is the first time that Gainey has started the final round inside the top-50 since January, so he desperately needs to convert this 20th place position into a high finish. Such pressure on his game is unlikely to be beneficial, so I'll back De Jonge to finish ahead of Gainey for the 13th time in their last 15 common events since January.
Graham DeLaet to beat Boo Weekley -113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Bet365 and The Greek]
Neither player has been in this position - 2nd with a round to play - a great deal in the last few years, but Delaet has certainly dominated this matchup: 11-5-1 since July last year. He also ranks in the top-10 for dirving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation this week, so his ball-striking is very good.
Tim Clark to beat John Rollins -150 @ Stan James [available generally]
Twice a runner-up in this event, I'll back Clark over Rollins who had an extremely poor record on this course until this week. Given that it has been over a year since Rollins shot a lower final round score than Clark, he looks much less likely to retain his current top-10 position.
Matt Kuchar to beat Boo Weekley -150 @ Stan James
A good back-nine saw Kuchar regain the lead during the 3rd round and even though he is leading the event, I expect him to be a tough player to overhaul - he is 1-for-1 when leading after 54 holes on the PGA Tour.
Graham DeLaet to beat Martin Flores -150 @ Stan James [available generally]
Another matchup dominated by one player: DeLaet has finished ahead of Flores in each of their last eight common events and in 11 of 12 since the start of the season. This is just the third time that Flores has started the final round of a PGA Tour event in the top-10, so this matchup dominance is likely to continue for another week.