Don?t dismiss early Kentucky Derby favorite after Rebel loss
By GARY
WESTgwest@star-telegram.com
Larry Jones didn?t blame Ramon Dominguez for the loss. Assigning blame often wastes time that could be better spent finding solutions. And so instead of blaming the jockey for Old Fashioned?s loss, Jones has replaced him.
Terry Thompson, the trainer said, will ride Old Fashioned on April 11 in the $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.
Sitting atop 1,100 pounds of impetuosity isn?t like straddling a moped, and so it?s only with hesitation that I ever criticize jockeys. Their job is both dangerous and difficult. They have to make split-second decisions that only in retrospect seem clear.
Still, Dominguez?s ride on Old Fashioned in the recent Rebel Stakes won?t be something the jockey will want to include on a r?sum?. Old Fashioned entered the Rebel as the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. He came out of it with his first loss, to a 56-1 long shot named Win Willy who rallied from last, and with questions about his stamina.
But given the strange circumstances of that loss, Old Fashioned actually gave an outstanding performance. And he still deserves to be regarded as one of the leaders on the road to the Triple Crown.
The Oaklawn surface was officially "good" for the Rebel. Actually, though, it was slow and tiring, drying out from the previous day?s rain. Dominguez didn?t ride another race on Saturday?s program. But if he had been watching closely, he would have seen just how dull the surface was.
Oaklawn?s second race was run in 1:46.87 for the 1 1/16 miles, a dawdling time for a group of allowance competitors. The ninth race, which matched some capable older horses, was run in 1:45.84. And the opening half-mile in those two races averaged 48.03 seconds, a soporific clocking.
This was a situation that called for patience, for conserving energy. It wasn?t a day for headlong speedsters or for chasing speedsters. But that?s what Dominguez did on Old Fashioned. They chased Silver City, who shot to the early lead, with an opening half-mile in 46.07 ? which was more than 10 lengths faster than the average opening half-mile for the other two-turn races that day.
The pace would have been lively even on a fast surface, but on this uncommonly dull strip it was suicidal.
Old Fashioned moved by Silver City in the second turn, completing six furlongs in 1:11.67 (1:13.87 was the average split for the other races at the distance). And then in deep stretch, on the far outside, where neither Dominguez nor Old Fashioned could see him, Win Willy rallied for the victory.
"He ran a creditable race," Jones said about Old Fashioned. "The other horse just ran a great race. The fractions were just faster than you want. This was the first time Old Fashioned was tired after a race, but he came out of it fine, and we?ll move on to the Arkansas Derby as if nothing happened."
Well, almost. Thompson will have the mount in the Arkansas Derby. Thompson knows the colt "better than anybody," Jones said, explaining the decision.
In the mornings at Oaklawn, Thompson has been working Old Fashioned, and he rode the colt in his first two outings at Delaware Park.
Thompson also knows Oaklawn Park, where he?s the leading rider. And that familiarity, with both the horse and the track, could represent the start of an Old Fashioned solution.
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Top 10 Triple Crown contenders 1. Quality Road: The Fountain of Youth winner is aimed at the Florida Derby.
2. I Want Revenge: Overwhelming in the Gotham, he?ll go to the Wood Memorial.
3. Old Fashioned: Better than his loss suggests, he?ll try to rebound in the Arkansas Derby.
4. Dunkirk: Lightly raced but enormously talented, he?s on course for a showdown in Florida.
5. Friesan Fire: The Louisiana Derby winner could run in the Blue Grass or wait for the Kentucky Derby.
6. Pioneerof The Nile: Trainer Bob Baffert has another contender; the Santa Anita Derby is next.
7. Imperial Council: He rallied in the Gotham, his first start around two turns.
8. Theregoesjojo: He defeated Quality Road in his first start of the year.
9. The Pamplemousse: The big speedster will take on Pioneerof The Nile at Santa Anita.
10. Beethoven: He rallied in the Fountain of Youth and could step forward in the Florida Derby.
Gary West, 817-390-7760
