Derby Talk

[Axle]

Derby Contenders Free Past Performances

Derby Contenders Free Past Performances

Top Derby Contenders Past Performances

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/pps/derbycontenders.pdf

:SIB

 

[Striker13]

Axle- Would love to hear on how you think Rachel Alexandra would do in the Derby? Especially with Borel in the saddle at Churchill.

 

[Axle]

Well: (1) she has speed, (2) two wins and two 2nds out of 5 over the track, (3) Beyers in the 100's.........kind of reads like Winning Colors of '88......

She would probably give a very good showing, but, I just don't think the connections will place her in the race.....

 

[The Joker]

The one I am watching

The one I am watching

Anybody watching this one? I am....

General Quarters takes the Sam F. Davis under James Lopez.
Photo: Tom Cooley Photography
General Quarters Pulls Sam Davis Upset

By Jason Shandler
Updated: Thursday, February 19, 2009 12:51 PM
Posted: Saturday, February 14, 2009 5:47 PM
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Thomas McCarthy?s General Quarters pulled a shocker and threw his name into the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) mix, as he stalked the pace, took over rounding the far turn, and pulled away for a convincing 3 1/2-length score in the $221,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) (VIDEO) for 3-year-olds at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 14.

Racing under the handling of James Lopez with blinkers off for the first time, General Quarters received a perfect stalking trip in back of pacesetter A.P. Cardinal, who posted reasonable fractions of :23.91, :47.77, and 1:12.25. Lopez guided the Sky Mesa colt away from the rail as they advanced on the final turn and took over approaching the quarter-pole.

Holding a 2 1/2-length advantage at the eighth-pole, General Quarters continued to draw away in the final furlong and was never seriously challenged while going off at odds of 14-1. Sumo, a 33-1 longshot, was a clear runner-up under Rene Douglas, three lengths better than third-place Musket Man.

The final time for 1 1/16 miles on the main track was 1:43.54.

Racing at Tampa Bay for the third consecutive start, General Quarters turned the tables on current starters Top Seed and Musket Man. The gray/roan colt finished second by a length to Top Seed in the six-furlong Inaugural Stakes Dec. 27 and was also a length back of Musket Man last out in the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes Jan. 17.

Trained by Mark Miller, General Quarters won for just the second time in nine lifetime starts. It was his first start going more than a mile.

?I?m just real proud of him," said Miller, of the former claimer who took over training duties for McCarthy after being sent to Florida this winter . "He proved a lot today. I?m looking at the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III), as long as everything?s OK. That?s the next step.

"Mr. McCarthy got him in Kentucky; I was stabled next to him in Kentucky, and that?s how we met," he continued. "He sent the horse down here to me, and he just loves it here. He loves the track; this is the best place to be in the winter time. The track surface, the people, the atmosphere; the horse just loves it. And that?s all we?re trying to do: keep him happy. He seems to be on the improve."

Bred in Kentucky by Mr. And Mrs. David Randal, and out of the Unbridled's Song mare Ecology, General Quarter earned $120,000 for the Sam Davis triumph. He was a $20,000 purchase at the 2007 Keeneland September yearling sale.

The winner paid $29, $12.60, and $6.40, while Sumo returned $24 to place and $12.40 to show. The exacta (2-10) was worth $893.80, with the trifecta (10-2-5) netting $6,783.60.

Free Country, the 9-5 choice who entered off a convincing allowance victory at Gulfstream last month, finished fourth while lacking a sustained rally.

 

[Clem D]

When I cap the Derby I have a system that relys heavily on Beyer figures to eliminate the pretenders and get me down to the 5 or 6 out of 20 that can win it.

The problem is the two horses from dubai don't have beyer figs.. Does anyone know away to assign a number to the to compare them to the others?

 

[sharky17]

I'm not a big fig guy, but this angle has NEVER worked - prepping a 3yo in Dubai and lugging him half way across the world to compete in the Derby...note the fact that Baffert scratched Indian Blessing from Churchill this week, after he claims she was dull after her work this week....Not a Derby horse, but one awesome mare who raced in Dubai not that long ago...it must take more out of them than the Sheik would want to admit.

So...to answer your question, I have no idea how to put a speed figure to Desert Party and Regal Ransom.....:mj06:

On the topic of Beyer numbers, the two horses I like show completely different numbers....Dunkirk has gone from something like 80 something to 98 to 108 in his three races....Do you think he's getting better?? :00hour
Then there's Pioneerof the Nile....he hasn't thrown anything over 100, but my gut tells me he is one tough bastard and I Want Revenge and Papa Clem both chased him around the synthetic in California before putting up big races on the dirt.

Good Luck this weekend Fellas....I'm heading out tomorrow at lunch and will be at Churchill Thurs, Fri and Sat.....I'll have a couple $10 mint juleps for you guys on Saturday......:toast:

 

[Clem D]

I'm not a big fig guy, but this angle has NEVER worked - prepping a 3yo in Dubai and lugging him half way across the world to compete in the Derby...note the fact that Baffert scratched Indian Blessing from Churchill this week, after he claims she was dull after her work this week....Not a Derby horse, but one awesome mare who raced in Dubai not that long ago...it must take more out of them than the Sheik would want to admit.

So...to answer your question, I have no idea how to put a speed figure to Desert Party and Regal Ransom.....:mj06:

On the topic of Beyer numbers, the two horses I like show completely different numbers....Dunkirk has gone from something like 80 something to 98 to 108 in his three races....Do you think he's getting better?? :00hour
Then there's Pioneerof the Nile....he hasn't thrown anything over 100, but my gut tells me he is one tough bastard and I Want Revenge and Papa Clem both chased him around the synthetic in California before putting up big races on the dirt.

Good Luck this weekend Fellas....I'm heading out tomorrow at lunch and will be at Churchill Thurs, Fri and Sat.....I'll have a couple $10 mint juleps for you guys on Saturday......:toast:

Great post and have fun.. I hate mint Juleps but you know I will have a few anyway.

 

[Axle]

Post Positions & M/L Odds

Post Positions & M/L Odds

Post Horse Trainer Jockey Odds
1 West Side Bernie Kelly Breen Stew Elliott 30-1

2 Musket Man Derek Ryan Eibar Coa 20-1

3 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty John Velazquez 30-1

4 Advice Todd Pletcher Rene Douglas 15-1

5 Hold Me Back Bill Mott Kent Desormeaux 15-1

6 Friesan Fire Larry Jones Gabriel Saez 5-1

7 Papa Clem Gary Stute Rafael Bejarano 20-1

8 Mine That Bird Bennie Woolley Calvin Borel 50-1

9 Join The Dance Todd Pletcher Chris DeCarlo 50-1

10 Regal Ransom Saeed Bin Suroor Alan Garcia 30-1

11 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer Mike Smith 20-1

12 General Quarters Tom McCarthe Julien Leparoux 20-1

13 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins Joe Talamo 3-1

14 Atomic Rain Kelly Breen Joe Bravo 50-1

15 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado 4-1

16 Pioneer Of The Nile Bob Baffert Garrett Gomez 4-1

17 Summer Bird Tim Ice Chris Rosier 50-1

18 Nowhere To Hide Nick Zito Shaun Bridgmohan 50-1

19 Desert Party Saeed Bin Suroor Ramon Dominguez 15-1

20 Flying Pirate D Wayne Lukas Robby Alvarado 50-1

 

[Mully]

at first look, one kinda jumps out at me...

Papa Clem


Thoughts???

 

[AUMemphisTiger]

From today's WSJ: - Nothing like their superb racing coverage and then selecting chalk....

Churchill Downs Workouts Can Reveal a Winner


Handicapping the Kentucky Derby requires an angle. One must look at the mountain, and decide where to drill the mine. The horses in Saturday's 135th Derby are the best 3-year-old males making left turns on dirt. But they've proven this in different races, at different tracks, on different surfaces, against different fields. Commonality is the key to good handicapping, and at the Derby, it's scarce.

Here's how the last five Kentucky Derby winners fared in their final pre-race workouts. Rank shows how the horse's time compared to every other horse that ran that distance that day.

HORSE/YEAR DISTANCE (furlongs) TIME RANK
Big Brown (2008) 3 35.4 1/19
Street Sense (2007) 5 1:01 5/22
Barbaro (2006) 4 :46 1/41
Giacomo (2005) 6 1:11.8 *1/16
Smarty Jones (2004) 5 :58 1/34

*At Hollywood Park

But what have they all -- or at least, most of them -- done? They've had a workout at Churchill Downs.

The startling statistic is this: In the final workouts of the last five Derby winners, four of them ran the fastest time of all the horses working at that distance that day (known as a bullet). Three of the four did their final workout at Churchill -- the lone exception was Giacomo's workout at Hollywood Park.

So what does this tell us about this year's field? In the last workouts of the horses in this year's group, six have run bullets so far. Atomic Rain worked a bullet, but did it running elsewhere. Papa Clem got one but did it slowly. Friesan Fire worked a blazing bullet for trainer Larry Jones, in the fastest Derby workout since Mr. Jones worked Hard Spun in 2007. Look for the Fire at the front of the pack, and base your bet on whether or not you think he can hold the lead. That leaves Regal Ransom, Dunkirk and I Want Revenge. Any of the three is a good wager. The Count's call: Regal Ransom is going to get loose out front with Friesan Fire and won't stick. Dunkirk needs another race before he's a solid bet. So that leaves I Want Revenge. Did you see him in the Wood Memorial? There's your horse.
?Max Watman

 

[Axle]

at first look, one kinda jumps out at me...

Papa Clem


Thoughts???

Here's a thought from one of the best:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/chatsbeyer.html


Reynard__Guest_: Papa Clem seems to be an overlooked second tier horse recently. What about him gives you the most confidence?

Andrew_Beyer: It's by the process of elimination that I'd use Papa Clem. Dunkirk lacks seasoning, Friesan Fire's only big fig was in the slop, so if you go past them, who is there to use underneath I Want Revenge? Papa Clem has seasoning; he has speed; he can come off the pace; he doesn't thrill me in any way but he's definitely OK.

 

[Axle]

Past Performances

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/pps/derbycontenders.pdf

:SIB

 

[dawgball]

I don't know if you guys remember, but Larry Jones was the "unknown" trainer I used to talk about that I know. Over the last three years, that has obviously changed!!! It's crazy. He was fully ready to retire after last season but when he saw two horses he changed his mind.

Friesan Fire is one of those two horses. I'm liking that he is a stalker for the derby, too.

Give me a 6-13 exacta box thinking that they finish in that order.

Third horse for me would be 19, Desert Party.

 

[Another Steve]

Oak Tri 3.00

6
378
378

Damn, can't believe it, a profit of 209.00

 

[gjn23]

Oak Tri 3.00

6
378
378

nice call

tough one...20 length win

think she'd have been a MAJOR player in the derby and i'd probably have wagered on her.

 

[Axle]

My Derby Plays

My Derby Plays

#13 IWant Revenge 103/113 Mullins/Talamo 3-1

#16 Pioneer Of The Nile 96 Baffert/Gomez 4-1

#7 Papa Clem 101 Stute/Bejarando 20-1

#15 Dunkirk 108 Pletcher/Prado 4-1

#6 Friesan Fire 104 Jones/Saez 5-1



$2 5 Horse Exacta Box - $40

$2 Exacta $12
13-16
Over
6-7-15

$1 Tri
13-16
13-16-15
6-7-15-5-11-1-2-19 $30

Good Luck Players. :SIB

 

[bjfinste]

nice call

tough one...20 length win

think she'd have been a MAJOR player in the derby and i'd probably have wagered on her.

I'd have to say she's the best horse at Churchill this weekend. Too bad she wasn't nominated and the owner would have had to pony up 200k for an entry fee to run her.

 

[gjn23]

I'd have to say she's the best horse at Churchill this weekend. Too bad she wasn't nominated and the owner would have had to pony up 200k for an entry fee to run her.

recently i think im pretty good at spotting monsters as three year olds before the derby....loved

big brown
street sense + curlin
barbaro
point given (still the best ive seen in the last 10 years but didnt get the derby but destroyed the belmont and preakness)

of course i also loved rock hard ten and he never materialized as much as the others

this year.....SHE looked like the monster of the 3 year old class (dunkirk and i want revenge are maybes but dunkirk hasnt filled out physically yet, still may win tomorrow)

 

[dawgball]

The tv show, Jockeys, is also filming all weekend at Churchill. Especially with Talamo having the mount on the favorite in the derby.

I can't wait for that show to start again.

 

[Axle]

This factor should come into play..........

From the Weather Channel:

Today: Areas of patchy fog early. Cloudy with occasional showers. High around 60F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

My two top selections should handle wet tracks....but,The Derby is THE DERBY....if the logicals don't fire, there will be some box-car payoffs....