Derby!

[Jimboski]

Make that TWO mo things

Make that TWO mo things

Oh, noticed Hamster was online when I posted all the stuff I wrote today.

Hamster, did ya git this hoss?
Hope so.

I AIN'T playing a thing in the last race, but just a FYI... no. 5, Annapolis, is a very good hoss. Not quite good enough for me to take a chance NOT leaving this place with smile on my face though.

Don't care much for Valdivia too.

Good luck, Annapolis.. it was a pretty good AND LUCKY day.

 

[Striker13]

You think he has enough tactical speed? I can see him back somewhere in front of Dialed In.

:shrug:

Absolutely he does, but let's see the post position draw. What makes you think he doesn't? Or what race of his gives you this impression?

 

[Jimboski]

Getting back to the subject at hand

Getting back to the subject at hand

Here's something that looks pretty obsolete and useless. But is it??

If there's a team of expert handicappers anywhere, they just might be the people who establish the future line for the Derby. They must do a lot of studying stuff like BREEDING, owners, trainers, past records, dosage, etc. No. they ain't always right, but this tool could be useful.

There's PLENTY of things to consider when tyring to find the Derby winner and I think this may be one (of many) of them even if it's NOT as important to what the horses are doing since this list was compiled. But it does mean that putting a tiny "x"(as in "not likely to win" according to the "experts") next to the ones that are listed may be a start.

This list is what the early (FEB) odds looked like to them "experts". Yes, things have changed. Obviously, it looks like they believe the winner is in the FIELD and NOT listed seperately. Uncle Mo might be an exception though with those 9/2 odds cause the field is "All Other 3-Year Olds). So, no "x" next to his name, YET.

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER

Pool 1, Feb. 18-20

Program #
KDFW Pool 1 Wagering Interest
Morning Line Odds

1
Anthony?s Cross
30-1

2
Astrology
30-1

3
Brethren
15-1

4
Clubhouse Ride
50-1

5
Comma to the Top (g)
20-1

6
Decisive Moment
50-1

7
Dialed In
10-1

8
Gourmet Dinner
30-1

9
Indian Winter
50-1

10
J P?s Gusto (r)
20-1

11
Jaycito
20-1

12
Machen
30-1

13
Mucho Macho Man
30-1

14
Rogue Romance
30-1

15
Santiva
30-1

16
Silver Medallion
20-1

17
Soldat
20-1

18
Stay Thirsty
30-1

19
Sweet Ducky
50-1

20
The Factor
20-1

21
Tiz Blessed
30-1

22
To Honor and Serve
10-1

23
Uncle Mo
9-2

24
Mutuel Field (All Other 3-Year-Olds)
5-2

 

[sharky17]

Absolutely he does, but let's see the post position draw. What makes you think he doesn't? Or what race of his gives you this impression?

No, you're right......I thought he was further back than he was in the Arkansas Derby. I just watched that one and the Rebel again. He was hustled out in the Rebel because he drew the rail and after watching the Arkansas Derby again he didn't plod out of the gate which I thought he did originally.

Still not entirely sold, though.

And another thing I leared watching that race.....that guy calling the races at Oaklawn is HORRIBLE.

 

[jdubshady]

Hey Jimboski no offense...this thread is for the Derby...make new thread for your daily picks.:0074

 

[Jimboski]

DAH, you musta missed my last thread. Ya gottta stay awake, jd. Looks like a lot of folks were interested too cause the hits jumped WAY UP since I posted it.

Only got one pick so far for AC today anyways. Give no. 10 a look in the first race :0074

Not 25-1, but 10-1 on this one so far. More than 5 mins to post.

BTW, I was planning on starting a new thread IF I found anything good enough to post for AC. Stop in there sometime and post whatever you like.

No offense, Good Luck with the Derby though,Boss.

 

[Striker13]

No, you're right......I thought he was further back than he was in the Arkansas Derby. I just watched that one and the Rebel again. He was hustled out in the Rebel because he drew the rail and after watching the Arkansas Derby again he didn't plod out of the gate which I thought he did originally.

Still not entirely sold, though.

And another thing I leared watching that race.....that guy calling the races at Oaklawn is HORRIBLE.

Oh lord, Terry Wallace is the worst announcer on the planet at Oaklawn, he needs to retire ASAP.
Archarcharch's trainer said that he was hit hard in the gate before the Rebel by Alternation who was in panic mode before the race in the gate and was in the next stall over from Archarcharch.
Workouts to report---
Unclo Mo worked with Stay Thirsty over 5 furlongs this morning and Uncle Mo was 1 length better than Stay Thirsty and galloped out a little better also in the slop today
Comma to the top-- still is working on polytrack in Cali and worked 5 furlongs in 1:00 ands 2/5. Still think you need to see this one work over dirt and also be able to rate off other horses
Animal Kingdom-- worked over the Churchill track and looked good over it which was the BIG question as he is turf bred and has won on turf and polytrack. He worked 6 furlongs in 1:13 and galloped out nicely in 1:26 and 2/5. My question still is how will he handle the dirt kickback which is way different than kickback on polytrack and turf?
Pants on Fire-- worked 4 furlongs in 47 and 4/5 in the slop this morning and the trainer said it was a good work
Take note of all of these works in the slop as it could always rain on the first Saturday in May.

 

[Striker13]

May 2 + May 3

May 2 + May 3

May 2 works all in slop--

Brilliant Speed--Went 5f in 1:01 and 1/5 and galloped out 1:15 for 6f. This was the most visually impressive workout of the day.

Midnight Interlude--went 5f in 1:00 and 2/5 and galloped out 6f in 1:14, and then 7f in 1:28 and 3/5. Clockers and people around him say this horse was blowing HARD after this work, not a good sign.

Nehro-- went 4f in 51 and 1/5 and galloped 5f in 1:05 and 2/5 in a maintenance work

Santiva--went 4f in 50 flat and galloped out 5f 1:02 and 4/5 and 6f in 1:17 and 1/5. This one is turning from my toss list to a possible contender come saturday as he is looking physically better and more focused than he was before.

Watch me Go-- Went 5f in 1:02 and galloped out 6f in 1:15, and 7f in 1:29 and 1/5 and the gallop outs just were ok not great, didn't really like the sloppy going.

May 3

Only Archarcharch who was out galloping not working. But the clockers said he was going so STRONG that they recorded the 3f gallop as a workout when it wasn't. Trainer Jinks Fires couldn't believe they recorded this as a workout.

Other news-- Toby's Corner who I thought would be a contender has been declared out of the derby as of today.

 

[CigDank]

A little over 24 hours until the post positions are drawn! :0055 :0055 :0053 :0057 :0065 :0067 :0069 :0071 :0071

KENTUCKY DERBY

Wed. May 4, Derby Classics ? Smarty Jones, 4-5 p.m., VERSUS
Wed. May 4, Kentucky Derby Draw, 5-6 p.m., VERSUS opcorn2 :0corn opcorn2
Thurs. May 5, Derby Classics ? Barbaro, 4-5 p.m., VERSUS
Thurs. May 5, Live from Churchill Downs, 5-6 p.m., VERSUS
Fri. May 6, Derby Classics ? Mine That Bird, 4-5 p.m., VERSUS
Fri. May 6, Kentucky Oaks, 5-6 p.m., VERSUS
Sat. May 7, Live from Churchill Downs, 11 a.m.-4 p.m., VERSUS
Sat. May 7, Kentucky Derby, 4-7 p.m., NBC

:toast: :toast: :toast:

 

[hogman14]

A little over 24 hours until the post positions are drawn! :0055 :0055 :0053 :0057 :0065 :0067 :0069 :0071 :0071

KENTUCKY DERBY

Wed. May 4, Derby Classics ? Smarty Jones, 4-5 p.m., VERSUS
Wed. May 4, Kentucky Derby Draw, 5-6 p.m., VERSUS opcorn2 :0corn opcorn2
Thurs. May 5, Derby Classics ? Barbaro, 4-5 p.m., VERSUS
Thurs. May 5, Live from Churchill Downs, 5-6 p.m., VERSUS
Fri. May 6, Derby Classics ? Mine That Bird, 4-5 p.m., VERSUS
Fri. May 6, Kentucky Oaks, 5-6 p.m., VERSUS
Sat. May 7, Live from Churchill Downs, 11 a.m.-4 p.m., VERSUS
Sat. May 7, Kentucky Derby, 4-7 p.m., NBC

:toast: :toast: :toast:

GIDDY UP

 

[CigDank]

1 Archarcharch J. Court 10:1
2 Brilliant Speed J. Rosario 30:1
3 Twice The Appeal C. Borel 20:1
4 Stay Thirsty R. Dominguez 20:1
5 Decisive Moment K. Clark 30:1
6 Comma to the Top P. Valenzuela 30:1
7 Pants On Fire A. Napravnik 20:1
8 Dialed In J. Leparoux 4:1
9 Derby Kitten J. Castellano 30:1
10 Twinspired M. Smith 30:1
11 Master Of Hounds G. Gomez 30:1
12 Santiva S. Bridgmohan 30:1
13 Mucho Macho Man R. Maragh 12:1
14 Shackleford J. Castanon 12:1
15 Midnight Interlude V. Espinoza 10:1
16 Animal Kingdom R. Albarado 30:1
17 Soldat A. Garcia 12:1
18 Uncle Mo J. Velazquez 9:2
19 Nehro C. Nakatani 6:1
20 Watch Me Go R. Bejarano 50:1

:toast: :toast: :0002 opcorn2

 

[hogman14]

I know some people here are mixed on Uncle Mo...does the 18 help or hurt him?

Could be a JUICY payout!

 

[CigDank]

I know some people here are mixed on Uncle Mo...does the 18 help or hurt him?

Could be a JUICY payout!

Him and Nehro are gonna close together opcorn2

I'm throwing the two of em in some tri's and super's! :0002
:toast:

 

[Striker13]

Archarcharch was the horse that was doing the best training and looking the best physically out of the Derby horses. Now gets stuck with the worst post and is real tough to support him at least for win honors. Even Baffert commented to the media how great Arch was looking. You know if Calvin Borel can get his horse out it is over to the rail for him and what can Arch do. I will not be using Uncle Mo but the #18 hole is fine, everyone that I have talked to has said that he looks skinny and is not keeping good weight on.

 

[Jimboski]

Derby stuff

Derby stuff

I think Striker is right on with Arch; sure looks good pacewise, but really figures to get GLUED IN on that rail. Wouldn't like his chances even with Johnny V. onboard let alone Court. Field size, sooo many runners and speedsters, and highly probable that the track will not be SOLIDLY rated as fast all work against him given the situation he's in.
Still, if he does get UNglued ... he gets the ole "LOOK OUT" rating !

Here's a site that has some nice features for the Derby that some folks may find useful even though the horse I'm LEANING toward is near the bottom of it's ratings....

http://www.horseracingnation.com/pols/current/kentucky_derby_2011_contenders

Still gotta do some heavy duty number crunching and more before coming up with anything solid.

One thing looks pretty certain.... . sho is a mediocre group of 3 yr. olds for a Derby field. Usually that mean MUCHO MACHO DINEROes, but I don't think that is necessarily true for this field/race.

HM, I don't care for Mo .. at least NOT in the top spot.

 

[hogman14]

Got it down to 6:
ArchArchArch
Shackleford

Toby's Corner
Mucho Macho Man
Midnight Interlude
Nehro

If any of the above picks make anyone sick, please let me know.

 

[gjn23]

i GUARANTEE toby's corner wont win the derby or even finish in the top 19!

 

[hogman14]

i GUARANTEE toby's corner wont win the derby or even finish in the top 19!

Point taken.

Good luck all! :00hour

 

[gjn23]

Point taken.

Good luck all! :00hour

i feel like you missed the point

he's not even in the race.

 

[hogman14]

i feel like you missed the point

he's not even in the race.

:142smilie :142smilie :142smilie

Just caught that. Sorry! :0008

Well him and Uncle Mo can share the paddock. :0008