..............................................................soljah67 said:
soljah
He didnt jinx your bet.
You played with the public. You said it yourself.
Got to try not to do that too much.
Detroit/Miami Total Play
- Thread starter THE KOD
- Start date
soljah
He didnt jinx your bet.
You played with the public. You said it yourself.
Got to try not to do that too much.
I do not follow the damn public, I follow my own thoughts. I dare you to bet on the over again. You'll see
..........................................................soljah67 said:
I am thinking about going with the under in the next game.
These two teams can't hit the broad side of
a bulls ass with a banjo.
KOD
Scott-Atlanta said:
Uhmmm the public was on the OVER in that game.... approx 68% of the public...should have gone UNDER....but Wade messed it up
sports
public smublic
there is no way for anyone to know within any certain degree who the public is playing. Especially quoting 68%.
thats a laugh
public smublic
there is no way for anyone to know within any certain degree who the public is playing. Especially quoting 68%.
thats a laugh
Wait a second now, the line was originally 178 and went down to 177.5. Correct me if i'm wrong, but doesn't that mean a lot of people were betting the under and they lowered it a half point to get more people to bet the over?
The line was originally 179 or 178-,and was bet down to where ever.This game went under the original,opening lines,just that there wasn't more than a half point wiggleroom at 178-.Its the playoffs,the lines are tight,and Wade shoulda never shot after getting past the last defender,dribbling the last three seconds out is the professional thing to have done.
.........................................................repoman said:
repo
Here is what I think about line movement.
I will only tell you that I learned this about line movement at Madjacks from some of the best here. It has worked for me. As in any wager for money you have to be careful, but when the timing is right, then you win.
Here is the rule.
When the line moves in a direction that you are
monitoring ( hopefull at more than one book)
close to gametime, go in the opposite direction. In this case on the over.
The reasoning I can explain goes like this.
When the decision was made to lower it to 177.5 they increased the likelyhood of the over hitting. And they knew it and its why they did it.
Players were hitting the under hard, for reasons already discussed. Especially the betters who just get home from work and want to drop a little on the game tonight. So they see Detroit and Miami low scores and all that. Bang...another under player.
All we can do as gamblers is make the best decision possible about who the public will be on
and throw it down and forget about it.
If you can do it you will win more than you lose.
So the books dropped the line to attract under players.
If you can understand this concept, you can win.
The percentage advantage on the over was
increased just enough for the over to hit. It dont matter Wade did this and Wade did that. What matters is you went the way you had to , to win within .5 ......
Then edludes and Salty Dog sit at home and say,
oh man I thought sure that game was going under, what a bad beat.
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Scott-Atlanta said:
Just because the line moves down doesn't mean the public is ON it...... for example there was a game sometime in the regular season.... SAN ANTONIO VS WASHINGTON ..... the line was about spurs -4 or so.... it had dipped to spurs -2....yet the public was on the spurs .... in those kinda situations you woulda took the WIZARDS...those are the "trap" games...not alot of those come by..... but if its HUGE movement of 2 or more against the public with 'no injuries' or anything like that causing the line to move.... those are considereed traps..... however with that under/over total on that recent game ... it was only a half point move so it was pretty weak ... but still worth playing.... but wade should have done the 'professional' thing like most players and not have dunked that last basket...
It don't work everytime. But it does work in
every sport.
You have to know when to do it.
What it comes down to is you are wagering on the books and not the game. Its can be very complicated and hard to explain. And it dont work for everyone. But it works for me and thats all I really care about.
Line movement is just one weapon in the
arsenal.
We have to use every weapon
at our disposal in order to win at wagering.
every sport.
You have to know when to do it.
What it comes down to is you are wagering on the books and not the game. Its can be very complicated and hard to explain. And it dont work for everyone. But it works for me and thats all I really care about.
Line movement is just one weapon in the
arsenal.
We have to use every weapon
at our disposal in order to win at wagering.
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......................................................Sports Broker said:
the trap games are the games to play.
They are the ones to make money on. Please tell me when you spot a trap play. That is the first opportunit to make the right play.
You have to work harder to win them.
Its like the story of the farmer who was called in to help a man who couldnt train his mule.
So the farmer gets there and the man says,,,
Please Mr Farmer, can you help me to train my mule , he won't do anything I tell him to do .
The farmer says sure, but it will cost you $ 100.
The man pays him.
The farmer walks over and picks up a 2x4 and hits the mule square between the eyes.
The man says wtf !!!!!! why you do that ?
The farmer says...
First you got to get their attention.
