Do you think these trends matter?

BUCSnotYUCKS

BUCSnotYUCKS

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When I look at over/unders, I like to look at the teams scoring at home, and on the road as well as what they give up....here are some games I was looking at tonight and wanted to know others thoughts!

Portland @ Detroit - 192
-Portland averages 98.4pts
-Detroit averages 92.7pts
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-Portland gives up 101.9pts
-Detroit gives up 98.7pts
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-Portland averages 92.2 pts on ROAD
-Detroit averages 97.2 pts at HOME

***So the line is a couple points higher then their averages home & road. HOWEVER, both teams give up on average more points, so is that info worth enough to consider the over?

San Antonio @ Washington - 191
-San Antonio averages 100.9 pts
-Washington averages 89.8pts
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-San Antonio gives up 95.7pts
-Washington gives up 96.4pts
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-San Antonio averages 100.4pts on ROAD
-Washington averages 89.6pts at HOME

**Another a couple points higher then their averages. Washington now has NeNe back and that has showed in their last 2 games scoring over100. Now I understand the Spurs likely are better then the Bobcats defensively, BUT the Hawks are one of the best in the league, AND the Spurs like to get up and down and play at a fast pace...You would think that would create more fast break opportunities for the Wiz, right? They struggle when teams put them in halfcourt sets(no Wall). - Playing b2b and 2/3 days scares me especially since yesterdays game was a 2OT game.
 
BUCSnotYUCKS

BUCSnotYUCKS

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BOTH WINNERS. I have 4 for tomorrow....I like 3 unders and 1 single game winner



Indiana @ Lakers - 197
-Indiana averages 91.2pts a game
-Lakers average 100.7pts a game
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-Indiana averages 86.9pts on ROAD
-Lakers average 100.9pts at HOME
------------
-Indiana averages giving up 92.2pts a game
-Lakers averages giving up 96.6pts a game

***My calculations show that this line is almost 10points off - Lets also keep in mind that the Pacers are a HORRIFIC road team at 2-6(1 vs Wizard and 1 on 1st game of season @ Toronto by 2pts) - both very low scoring games. And the Lakers have only played good at home(6-3) So taking the Lakers -7.5 isn't a bad idea either, just not sure if I trust them yet.

Dallas @ Philly - 194
-Dallas averages 100.9pts a game
-Philly averages 92.2pts a game
-----------
-Dallas averages 95.0 pts a game on ROAD
-Philly averages 94.2pts a game at HOME
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-Dallas averages giving up 101.6pts a game
-Philly averages giving up 93.4pts a game

****My calculations have this game off by 3points -


Minnesota @ Sacramento - 196
-Minnesota averages 91.7pts a game
-Sacramento averages 95pts a game
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-Minnesota averages 90.5pts on the ROAD
-Sacramento averages 97.3pts at HOME
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-Minnesota averages giving up 92.8pts
-Sacramento averages 99.8pts

********My calculations have this game off by 6points


Toronto @ Houston(spread info, not total) -5
-Toronto is 1-7 on the road
-Houston is 4-3 at home
-Toronto is playing their 5th game in 8 nights, and have to travel to Memphis tomorrow.
-Houston is playing their 1st game since Friday, a fast paced high scoring game. Well rested.
-Toronto is 26th in REB on the road
-Houston is #4 overall in REB

Houston gives up 100.2, while Toronto gives up 100.3pts. BUT Houston averages 101.3 while Toronto averages just 96.6 points. ALSO Houston scores on average 100.3points a game at home while Toronto musters a mere 92.5 points a game on the road.

**Initially I thought over, but I think Toronto will get worn out, not get hardly any 2nd looks, and Houston will be too much for them.
**My calculations have HOUSTON winning by 9pts
 
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BUCSnotYUCKS

BUCSnotYUCKS

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I am probably going to stay away from the Phoenix game, but for those who care....here's some info for ya...

Phoenix @ Cleveland - 201.5
-Phoenix averages 100.5pts a game
-Cleveland averages 95.6pts a game
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-Phoenix averages 99pts ON ROAD
-Cleveland averages 91.8 pts AT HOME
-----------
-Phoenix averages giving up 103.3pts a game
-Cleveland averages giving up 100.9pts a game

***My calculations have this game off by almost 6 points, BUT!

-Cleveland playing B2B after a grinding game in Memphis(on top of playing 4 in 5 days) - They also don't have Irving
-Phoenix is playing 2 of 3 on the road
-Cleveland only gives up 96.25pts a game AT HOME

With the lack of defense both seem to play, you would think this one sky rockets all the way over. However, the 1st time both teams played there was 112pts scored @ Phoenix. Irving was playing, and there was 111pts scored in the 1h, the second half saw 101pts, and mostly because of fouling at the end of the game.

Like I said, I'm not playing this game because I feel like the line is so close and there's a lot of factors that'll make it tough.
 
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BUCSnotYUCKS

BUCSnotYUCKS

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TOMORROWS GAMES- If anyone wonders what makes me pick out these games, sometimes I look at the line and say "hmmm, that seems off" or sometimes I simply just dig into all the games to see what's up...But other factors are included such as b2b, 2of3, 3of4, 4of5, east to west, last leg of road trip, 1st leg of home stand, home pts vs home pts given up, road points, rebounding vs other rebounding #s, etc...

I would consider a "play" anything more then 2 pos....so 6points or more, i consider it a "play"

..............
 
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BUCSnotYUCKS

BUCSnotYUCKS

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PORTLAND @ WASHINGTON - 3, 193
-Portland averages 98.6pts a game
-Washington averages 90pts a game
---------
-Portland averages 93.4pts on ROAD
-Washington averages 90.0pts AT HOME
---------
-Portland averages giving up 102.4pts a game
-Washington averages giving up 98.2pts a game

***My calculations have this game off by 1 point - No Play WSH 97 Portland 95

PHOENIX @ DETROIT - 3, 198.5
-Phoenix averages 99.9pts a game
-Detroit averages 93.7pts a game
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-Phoenix averages 97.9pts on ROAD
-Detroit averages 99pts AT HOME
----------
-Phoenix averages giving up 101.6pts
-Detroit averages giving up 98.9pts

-Phoenix playing B2B, Detroit playing 3rd game in 4nights
-Phoenix averages 89.3 with 0 rest
-Detroit averages 94.3pts with 1days rest

**My calculations have this line almost 7 points. I also like Detroit in this spot. Detroit an OK team at home, Phoenix terrible on the road(winning against only CLE/CHARLOTTE) - And they're playing 3 of 4, and have won 3 of last 4, bad team that's due for a loss. - I have Detroit winning by 5points, so not quite the 6point qualifier.

Dallas @ Chicago - 6, 191.5
-Dallas averages 98pts on 0 days rest
-Chicago playin 2of3
-Dallas playing B2B

-Dallas averages 100.7pts a game
-Chicago averages 94pts a game
---------
-Dallas averages 95.4pts on ROAD
-Chicago averages 91.3pts AT HOME
---------
-Dallas averages giving up 101.5pts
-Chicago averages giving up 93.4pts

***My calculations have this game only 2 points off. - No Play

Toronto @ Memphis - 10, 192
-Toronto averages 96.9pts a game
-Memphis averages 99.3pts a game
---------
-Toronto averages 93.4pts on ROAD
-Memphis averages 98.1pts AT HOME
---------
-Toronto averages giving up 101.4pts
-Memphis averages giving up 91.8pts

-Toronto playing B2B(avg95.4) and 3of4(both were running fests)
-Memphis playing 2of3(101pts)
***My calculations have this line 1point off - No PLAY

Utah @ New Orleans - 3, 190.5
-Utah averages 98.9pts a game
-New Orleans averages 94.5pts a game
---------
-Utah averages 96.7pts on ROAD
-New Orleans averages 87.8pts AT HOME
---------
-Utah averages giving up 98.4pts
-New Orleans averages giving up 99.8pts

--Utah playing 2/3(98.4)
-NO playing 3/4(96.4)

***Calculations have this line off by 2 points - No play - UTAH off by over 5 points, so I'd lean UTAH -3

Houston @ OKC - 10, 208
-Houston averages 102.4pts a game
-OKC averages 104.4pts a game
----------
-Houston averages 102.5pts a game on ROAD
-OKC averages 107.4pts a game AT HOME
----------
-Houston averages giving up 100.2pts
-OKC averages giving up 96.3pts

***My calculations have this game off by 6points. I also will be factoring in this...HOU playin B2B, OKC playing 2/3 and the fact this is an emotional game...HOU averages 90.7 on 0 days rest. I love OKC AND THE UNDER

Minnesota @ LA Clippers - 9, 191.5
-Minnesota averages 92.1pts a game
-Clippers averages 99.5pts a game
-----------
-Minnesota averages 91.4pts ON ROAD
-Clippers averages 101.6pts AT HOME
-----------
-Minnesota averages giving up 92.5pts
-Clippers averages giving up 95.6pts

-Both teams playing 2/3, Minnesota playing b2b

***My calculations have this game off by 3points, but I have this as a MINNESOTA +9 play. Clippers 95, TWOLVES 93

Spurs @ Magic - 7.5, 197
-Spurs average 102.1pts a game
-Magic average 91.7pts a game
----------
-Spurs average 102.3pts ON ROAD
-Magic average 97.4pts AT HOME
----------
-Spurs average giving up 95.5pts
-Magic average giving up 95.2pts

-Orlando's 1st game since Sunday
-Spurs playing 3rd game in 4 nights(play @ Miami tomorrow) - Wouldn't be surprised to see some guys getting rest here and not even playing. Would be key factor on whether or not to take OVER or UNDER
-Spurs giving up 97pts a game on ROAD
-Orlando giving up 97.7pts a game on ROAD
***My calculations have this line off by just 3points(194) - No play
**If i find anything out about the old fellas' not playing, I'm all about taking the UNDER.

Brooklyn @ Boston - 4.5, 191
-Brooklyn averages 95.6pts a game
-Boston averages 99.3pts a game
----------
-Brooklyn averages 92.4 pts on ROAD
-Boston averages 100.1pts AT HOME
----------
-Brooklyn averages giving up 91.3pts
-Boston averages giving up 100.1pts

-Brooklyn top10 in rebounding(7th in off)
-Boston dead last 30th in rebounding

****My calculations have this line off by just 1point(192) If this game wasn't BKN 3rd in 4 nights and just coming off a big game against the NYK, I'd be all over the Nets, but - No play

Charlotte @ Atlanta - 9, 192.5
-Charlotte averages 95.0pts a game
-Atlanta averages 95.2pts a game
---------
-Charlotte averages 92.8 ON ROAD
-Atlanta averages 94.3 pts AT HOME
---------
-Charlotte averages giving up 100.7
-Atlanta averages giving up 92.1pts

****My calculations have this line off by just 2points(190) - no play

Knicks @ Bucs - 1.5, 198.5
-Knicks average 102.3pts a game
-Bucs average 99.3pts a game
-----------
-Knicks average 101.6 pts on ROAD
-Bucs average 98.2pts at HOME
-----------
-Knicks average giving up 95.5pts
-Bucs average giving up 98.3pts

-Bucs playing 2of 3
-Knicks playing 3of4 and 6of9

****My calculations have this game off by 6points(192)- PLAY UNDER - line is now off by 8pts
 
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BUCSnotYUCKS

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PLAYS FOR NOV28TH

3-TWOLVES +9
1-NYK/MIN UNDER(open 198.5, 200.5now)
2-HOU/OKC UNDER(208now)
5-DETROIT -3
4-DET/PHX UNDER(198now)


***# before them is how I would rank them in confidence
 
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Billy in 4C

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you get full credit for your homework for showing the work...A+

gl and thanks for the info
 
BUCSnotYUCKS

BUCSnotYUCKS

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Billy in 4C said:
you get full credit for your homework for showing the work...A+

gl and thanks for the info
Click to expand...

Thank you. I do think it'll be appreciated, but as always, bet at your own risk LOL

It's amazing when looking at the whole slate of lines how close Vegas has it. My goal is the find the games that I feel are too far off, and hammer them.
 
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