Looks like a nice reverse jinx. KNICKS doesn't go over!
8-1 YTD, TWOLVES +9, HOU/OKC left(reverse jinx wont work here lol)
Do you think these trends matter?
- Thread starter BUCSnotYUCKS
- Start date
Looks like a nice reverse jinx. KNICKS doesn't go over!
8-1 YTD, TWOLVES +9, HOU/OKC left(reverse jinx wont work here lol)
it's early, lets not get too crazy lol, im just doing the research and seeing where it goes. like i said, i pick out lines that i look at and say "hmmm, that seems off." - then dig deeper into them. the only reason i posted all the games is for viewing pleasure, and maybe people can pick info from it...
I loved this game since last night. After seeing your research I loved it even more. Let's get em!
Could the game be a setup game with Billups debuting for the first time this season? I hope it's 9-2 !
Only 2 games on the docket tomorrow, 1 posted, 1 available tomorrow. I'll post info when I get to it tomorrow...but here is DEN/GS
Denver @ Golden State - 1.5, 198.5
-Denver averages 99.4pts a game
-Golden State averages 98pts a game
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-Denver averages 98.1pts on ROAD
-Golden State averages 98.5pts AT HOME
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-Denver averages giving up 98.3pts
-Golden State averages giving up 98.8pts
---Nuggets and Warriors both 2 of best rebounding teams in the league.
---Warriors average 89.5pts on 3+days rest
---It's still early and Vegas is relying on the reputations of both teams of years past.
---Warriors only give up 95.5pts at HOME
---PRIMETIME game for 2 young teams
***My calculations have this game almost 7points off. -PLAY IS UNDER198.5, and I actually believe the line will climb. Line is too tight for either side. Numbers favorite Denver, but by less than the 1.5 spread...DEN road record and GSWs home crowd make me believe that GSW will win, but numbers say stay away
Denver @ Golden State - 1.5, 198.5
-Denver averages 99.4pts a game
-Golden State averages 98pts a game
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-Denver averages 98.1pts on ROAD
-Golden State averages 98.5pts AT HOME
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-Denver averages giving up 98.3pts
-Golden State averages giving up 98.8pts
---Nuggets and Warriors both 2 of best rebounding teams in the league.
---Warriors average 89.5pts on 3+days rest
---It's still early and Vegas is relying on the reputations of both teams of years past.
---Warriors only give up 95.5pts at HOME
---PRIMETIME game for 2 young teams
***My calculations have this game almost 7points off. -PLAY IS UNDER198.5, and I actually believe the line will climb. Line is too tight for either side. Numbers favorite Denver, but by less than the 1.5 spread...DEN road record and GSWs home crowd make me believe that GSW will win, but numbers say stay away
- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
Spurs @ Heat - 5.5, 205.5
-Spurs average 104.8pts a game
-Heat average 102.6pts a game
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-Spurs average 103.1pts a game ON ROAD
-Heat average 114.8pts a game AT HOME
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-Spurs average giving up 95.1pts a game
-Heat average giving up 100.3pts a game
-Spurs playing b2b 4in5 and 5in7 on road.
-Heat haven't played since Saturday
***My calculations have this game off by 6.5points. - PLAY IS MIAMI -5.5, Heat win by 12...TOTAL is only 3 points off(too low, so i would lean OVER), NO PLAY
-Spurs average 104.8pts a game
-Heat average 102.6pts a game
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-Spurs average 103.1pts a game ON ROAD
-Heat average 114.8pts a game AT HOME
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-Spurs average giving up 95.1pts a game
-Heat average giving up 100.3pts a game
-Spurs playing b2b 4in5 and 5in7 on road.
-Heat haven't played since Saturday
***My calculations have this game off by 6.5points. - PLAY IS MIAMI -5.5, Heat win by 12...TOTAL is only 3 points off(too low, so i would lean OVER), NO PLAY
Game was definitely capped with expectations of SA regulars. If I knew they weren't playing, the game would've been figured differently, and the play would've been UNDER.
Brutal day yesterday, 0-2, brings us to 9-4 YTD
OK, now before doing research, the games that stuck out to me are - PHI/CHA under and CHAR +, CLE/ATL over(cleveland fades in 2H, so might just go with 1H OVER), Mil/Min under & Min -2.5, Memphis -11, Utah/OKC under204, Sac +1.5, LAL/DEN under205....on to the research....
Brooklyn @ Orlando - 4, 187
Brooklyn averages 95.6 pts a game
Orlando averages 91.5pts a game
Brooklyn averages 92.5pts on ROAD
Orlando averages 96.4pts AT HOME
Brooklyn gives up 90.7pts a game
Orlando gives up 96.3pts a game
--Brooklyn playing 4/6 and 2/3
--Orlando playing 2/3
--Orlando 92.6 on 1days rest
--Brooklyn 94.3 on 1days rest
****My calculations have this line off by 3pts, and the line off by 2pts - NO PLAY
Philly @ Charlotte - 3.5, 189.5
Philly averages 92.7pts a game
Charlotte averages 94.7pts a game
Philly averages 88.5pts on ROAD
Charlotte averages 96.4pts AT HOME
Philly giving up 93.7pts a game
Charlotte gives up 100.2pts a game
****My calculations have this total line off by almost 2pts, but have Charlotte winning SU 95 - 93, and sine they're a +3.5 underdog, the play is CHARLOTTE +3.5
Phoenix @ Toronto - 1.5, 197.5
Phoenix averages 98.4pts a game
Toronto averages 95.9pts a game
Phoenix averages 95.3pts on road
Toronto averages 102pts at home
Phoenix averages giving up 102.6
Toronto averages giving up 101.5
Phoenix averages 103.1 on 1days rest
Toronto averages 102.7 on 1days rest
***My calculations have this line off by 6points - PLAY IS OVER 197.5 - I would also LEAN TORONTO, but no "play" only 5point qualifier.
Portland @ Boston - 5, 191.5
Portland averages 97.5pts a game
Boston averages 98.2pts a game
Portland averages 92pts a game on road
Boston averages 98pts a game at home
Portland averages giving up 101.1
Boston averages giving up 99.7
-No rondo means less defense IMO, it also means a faster paced game.
**My calculations have this line off by 7points, the play is OVER191.5
Washington @ New York - 13, 191
Washington averages 89.5pts a game
New York averages 102.3pts a game
Washington averages 90pts on ROAD
New York averages 103.4pts AT HOME
Washington averages 96.9pts
New York averages giving up 94.9pts
***Line is about dead even, no play, i do like the Knicks though. Washington struggles to score in the paint and they'll struggle more here. Wiz are 2nd worst in rebounding while knicks are 4th. This has a 105 to 84 type game written all over it.
Cleveland @ Atlanta - 9, 189.5
Cleveland averages 94.5 pts a game
Atlanta averages 95.1pts a game
Cleveland averages 97.2pts on ROAD
Atlanta averages 94.3pts AT HOME
Cleveland averages giving up 100.2pts
Atlanta averages giving up 92pts
***My calculations have this line off by 3 points, but the numbers do show CLEVELAND +9 as a PLAY
--Hawks one of worst giving up rebounding to teams, Cavs #2 in opposing rebounds. So this game will be tight unless Atlanta shoots the lights out or Cleveland is cold.
Milwaukee @ Minnesota - 2.5, 194
Milwaukee averages 98.4pts a game
Minnesota averages 92.3pts a game
Milwaukee averages 100.3pts on ROAD
Minnesota averages 92.8pts AT HOME
Milwaukee averages giving up 98.5 a game
Minnesota averages giving up 93.1pts a game
****My calculations have this line off by 6points, the play is MIN/MIL under 194
Detroit @ Memphis - 11, 190
Detroit averages 95.2pts a game
Memphis averages 99.6pts a game
Detroit averages 90.2pts on road
Memphis averages 98.8pts at home
Detroit averages givng up 97.5pts
Memphis averages giving up 91.1pts
--Detroit 1-8 on road
--Memphis undefeated at home
****My calculations have this line off dead even on total and 2 points off(-13) on the spread. So I'd lean on Memphis -11, but not a "play"
Utah @ Oklahoma City - 9, 204
Utah averages averages 98.5pts
OKC averages 105.4pts
Utah averages 96.6pts on road
OKC averages 108.7pts at home
Utah averages giving up 97.5pts
OKC averages giving up 96.4pts
****My calculations have this line off by just over 6points. PLAY is UTAH/OKC UNDER204
Indiana @ Sacramento - 1.5, 188.5
Indiana averages 90.4pts a game
Sacramento averages 94.6pts a game
Indiana averages 86pts on ROAD
Sacramento averages 96.3pts at home
Indiana averages giving up 91.2pts a game
Sacramento averages giving up 99.6pts a game
****My calculations have IND 92, SAC 95, PLAY IS SAC +1.5, wrong team favored...
Denver @ LA Lakers - 5, 205
Denver averages 99.8pts a game
Lakers averages 99.1pts a game
Denver averages 98.7pts on road
Lakers averages 98.5pts at home
Denver averages giving up 98.8pts
Lakers averages giving up 95.5pts
-Denver playing b2b
*****My calculations have this line off by 8points. PLAY IS UNDER 205
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PLAYS FOR THE DAY
DEN/LAL UNDER205
SACRAMENTO +1.5
UTAH/OKC UNDER204
MIN/MIL UNDER194
CLEVELAND +9
POR/BOS OVER191.5
TOR/PHO OVER197.5
CHARLOTTE +3.5
OK, now before doing research, the games that stuck out to me are - PHI/CHA under and CHAR +, CLE/ATL over(cleveland fades in 2H, so might just go with 1H OVER), Mil/Min under & Min -2.5, Memphis -11, Utah/OKC under204, Sac +1.5, LAL/DEN under205....on to the research....
Brooklyn @ Orlando - 4, 187
Brooklyn averages 95.6 pts a game
Orlando averages 91.5pts a game
Brooklyn averages 92.5pts on ROAD
Orlando averages 96.4pts AT HOME
Brooklyn gives up 90.7pts a game
Orlando gives up 96.3pts a game
--Brooklyn playing 4/6 and 2/3
--Orlando playing 2/3
--Orlando 92.6 on 1days rest
--Brooklyn 94.3 on 1days rest
****My calculations have this line off by 3pts, and the line off by 2pts - NO PLAY
Philly @ Charlotte - 3.5, 189.5
Philly averages 92.7pts a game
Charlotte averages 94.7pts a game
Philly averages 88.5pts on ROAD
Charlotte averages 96.4pts AT HOME
Philly giving up 93.7pts a game
Charlotte gives up 100.2pts a game
****My calculations have this total line off by almost 2pts, but have Charlotte winning SU 95 - 93, and sine they're a +3.5 underdog, the play is CHARLOTTE +3.5
Phoenix @ Toronto - 1.5, 197.5
Phoenix averages 98.4pts a game
Toronto averages 95.9pts a game
Phoenix averages 95.3pts on road
Toronto averages 102pts at home
Phoenix averages giving up 102.6
Toronto averages giving up 101.5
Phoenix averages 103.1 on 1days rest
Toronto averages 102.7 on 1days rest
***My calculations have this line off by 6points - PLAY IS OVER 197.5 - I would also LEAN TORONTO, but no "play" only 5point qualifier.
Portland @ Boston - 5, 191.5
Portland averages 97.5pts a game
Boston averages 98.2pts a game
Portland averages 92pts a game on road
Boston averages 98pts a game at home
Portland averages giving up 101.1
Boston averages giving up 99.7
-No rondo means less defense IMO, it also means a faster paced game.
**My calculations have this line off by 7points, the play is OVER191.5
Washington @ New York - 13, 191
Washington averages 89.5pts a game
New York averages 102.3pts a game
Washington averages 90pts on ROAD
New York averages 103.4pts AT HOME
Washington averages 96.9pts
New York averages giving up 94.9pts
***Line is about dead even, no play, i do like the Knicks though. Washington struggles to score in the paint and they'll struggle more here. Wiz are 2nd worst in rebounding while knicks are 4th. This has a 105 to 84 type game written all over it.
Cleveland @ Atlanta - 9, 189.5
Cleveland averages 94.5 pts a game
Atlanta averages 95.1pts a game
Cleveland averages 97.2pts on ROAD
Atlanta averages 94.3pts AT HOME
Cleveland averages giving up 100.2pts
Atlanta averages giving up 92pts
***My calculations have this line off by 3 points, but the numbers do show CLEVELAND +9 as a PLAY
--Hawks one of worst giving up rebounding to teams, Cavs #2 in opposing rebounds. So this game will be tight unless Atlanta shoots the lights out or Cleveland is cold.
Milwaukee @ Minnesota - 2.5, 194
Milwaukee averages 98.4pts a game
Minnesota averages 92.3pts a game
Milwaukee averages 100.3pts on ROAD
Minnesota averages 92.8pts AT HOME
Milwaukee averages giving up 98.5 a game
Minnesota averages giving up 93.1pts a game
****My calculations have this line off by 6points, the play is MIN/MIL under 194
Detroit @ Memphis - 11, 190
Detroit averages 95.2pts a game
Memphis averages 99.6pts a game
Detroit averages 90.2pts on road
Memphis averages 98.8pts at home
Detroit averages givng up 97.5pts
Memphis averages giving up 91.1pts
--Detroit 1-8 on road
--Memphis undefeated at home
****My calculations have this line off dead even on total and 2 points off(-13) on the spread. So I'd lean on Memphis -11, but not a "play"
Utah @ Oklahoma City - 9, 204
Utah averages averages 98.5pts
OKC averages 105.4pts
Utah averages 96.6pts on road
OKC averages 108.7pts at home
Utah averages giving up 97.5pts
OKC averages giving up 96.4pts
****My calculations have this line off by just over 6points. PLAY is UTAH/OKC UNDER204
Indiana @ Sacramento - 1.5, 188.5
Indiana averages 90.4pts a game
Sacramento averages 94.6pts a game
Indiana averages 86pts on ROAD
Sacramento averages 96.3pts at home
Indiana averages giving up 91.2pts a game
Sacramento averages giving up 99.6pts a game
****My calculations have IND 92, SAC 95, PLAY IS SAC +1.5, wrong team favored...
Denver @ LA Lakers - 5, 205
Denver averages 99.8pts a game
Lakers averages 99.1pts a game
Denver averages 98.7pts on road
Lakers averages 98.5pts at home
Denver averages giving up 98.8pts
Lakers averages giving up 95.5pts
-Denver playing b2b
*****My calculations have this line off by 8points. PLAY IS UNDER 205
--------------------------------------------
PLAYS FOR THE DAY
DEN/LAL UNDER205
SACRAMENTO +1.5
UTAH/OKC UNDER204
MIN/MIL UNDER194
CLEVELAND +9
POR/BOS OVER191.5
TOR/PHO OVER197.5
CHARLOTTE +3.5
Just my opinion and seeing if you agree on the Lakers game. I know you did your calculations already ... But I don't think that it should be a play because of the offensive changes the Lakers have done for the past 2 weeks or so. On top of that the Lakers don't play any defense.
