Dumb DUMBER DUMBERER

[Romi]

In a nutshell...it has been suggested for well over a year now on this forum, by several posters, on numerous occasions, to please keep any details of a future fight to yourself until the line has been ESTABLISHED. An opening is NOT an established line.

For the record, I never claimed that my opinion could sway the odds. It certainly couldn't. I'm not an expert. I don't even claim to be good at this. However, an ounce of common sense goes a long way.

 

[Romi]

GW said "i disagreed....and stated that i believed that any conversations that guys that wagered on boxing as much as we did back then(and do now) would be akin to giving the oddsmakers a leg up on lining a fight....along with possibly perusing other sites to get a feel for what the players might be thinking"


What you said above was the entire point of the thread. I don't like to be an ass but the pt hadn't gotten across. No egos whatsoever involved here like Frankie suggested. It's pure common sense. Perhaps myself and a few others have it completely wrong an so be it if we are. When Vegas opens and continued to have a nearly even line (Guerrero/Kat) yet the off shores open @-390 then perhaps that might suggest we're not entirely wrong either.

 

[fastfrank]

Established lines

Established lines

Sometimes an "established" line is a line set by sharp betters who got in on the early number and are in better position than the "me to" guys. Money lines in boxing are much more volatile than say NFL. I would'nt bet Guerrero at -200 and better BUT I did at +110/+100 on 2 different occasions this week. Why not give the guys here a heads up on early numbers? Or does that make it more difficult for the chosen few who want to get the best of it?

 

[kickserv]

I influence all GSP lines.

Just sayin'

 

[olddirtyfighter]

My 2 cents:

1) I agree that opinions expressed by some guys on this board can influence the number if the one is not yet released.

2) However if the number is released, being it early or established and one think it's a wrong number, my guess is that one will hit it hard before expressing his opinion on the board. That money, not talk will move number.

I'm talking about offshore number here.
I consider myself semi-dumb here

 

[gardenweasel]

maybe a hard and fast unwritten rule among the regulars on the board needs to be outlined?....cause i think the 2 fights that instigated all the hubbub(particularly nate/garcia) sort of fall into a gray area...

the kats/guerrero line did open a bit wider than i expected.....not sure whether the discussion on this board had an impact on that(that`s above my pay grade:shrug: )....but it was hit pretty hard immediately...so there is some kats love out there...

as i indicated,,nate WAS lined...no,there was no round prop provided....but in all honesty,i don`t think that anything said actually mentioned that....
we really don`t know whether nate is cashing a check or taking this fight extremely seriously...

some fights never see a round prop,if i`m not mistaken... would be tough to hold your water awaiting a round prop that never gets posted....that kind of defeats the purpose of having a discussion board...

so,if snybody would care to take a crack at an unspoken policy regarding unlined fights,i`ll gladly abide by whatever is agreed upon...i`m sure we all would...

i don`t post as much boxing as i used to(really don`t need to...look at all the excellent cappers here)..mma kind of caught my fancy...the reason i even came here to madjacks is because i love boxing and after my brother and father died relatively young,i didn`t have anybody to discuss my passion with(it`s a long story,my friends don`t know boxing from mahjong)...so i came here back in 2002 and tried to drum up interest in boxing in this forum... some decent cappers came over from another site.....tony montana came over..there were some others(badjab/shrimp/frankie...fletcher was here...they`ve moved on)...brought boxlocks in...and he brought many of the guys that are here in...

so,it`s a little disappointing to see guys taking potshots at one another instead of discussing the issue in an open manner...i think that`s what prompted me to respond initially...i like this board and all the guys that post here and hate seeing all the dissension......

bottom line,if anybody wants to lay out some parameters,by all means,carry on...

whatever is decided,i`ll gladly abide by...

no hard feelings from here...


heading out to work...check back to see what shakes out this afternoon..

 

[fastfrank]

Pre-discussing lines/issues

Pre-discussing lines/issues

OK, seems point here is does posting a Vegas line BEFORE the off shores do and/or discussing a particular match up prior to a line posted either locally or off shore influence the number? So far weasel says yes I think, Mayorga fan no, Old Dirty yes, Fightwriter seems to be saying yes. From their posts it seems punchy and Romi say yes. Their are a few others who haven't checked in yet. Personally, I'm a goofy fuck so I don't know. So if the ya's have it then if I see a number in Vegas I like not posted I won't say jack here. Out of respect for the board.

 

[Fightwriter]

It's not the Vegas lines, Frank

It's not the Vegas lines, Frank

OK, seems point here is does posting a Vegas line BEFORE the off shores do and/or discussing a particular match up prior to a line posted either locally or off shore influence the number? So far weasel says yes I think, Mayorga fan no, Old Dirty yes, Fightwriter seems to be saying yes. From their posts it seems punchy and Romi say yes. Their are a few others who haven't checked in yet. Personally, I'm a goofy fuck so I don't know. So if the ya's have it then if I see a number in Vegas I like not posted I won't say jack here. Out of respect for the board.

The thread has nothing to do with the Vegas lines, Frank.

I do think this topic has been a bit beaten to death now.

Still, here is my two cents' worth:

We have two groups here.

I think that some members of the board see the board as something of a social club (nothing wrong with that BTW) and primarily want to discuss fights with people who share their passion for boxing (again, absolutely nothing wrong with that).

There is another group, though, one that sees this as more of, shall we say, a business. This group does not wish to give the oddsmaker(s) any advantage, however slight, and pre-fight discussion surely DOES help an oddsmaker, if only because he might be alerted to something, however small, that he may have missed.

Let me give one example.

If a bunch of players had been saying (BEFORE the odds had been posted) that Brian Vera had a heck of a shot at upsetting Sebastien Demers in Quebec, that Vera would have opened as a +1200 underdog? Just think about it. What would you do if you were an oddsmaker and planned on making Vera +1200 but a knowledgeable group was loving Vera's chances. You would have thought: "Oops, maybe that is too generous to these guys" and you would have adjusted your odds, right? (I know I would have had I been the oddsmaker.) Yes, Vera was rightly the underdog, but +1200? Players of my acquaintance couldn't believe their luck.

So as sharp as the oddsmaker is, he is not infallible. There have been other mistakes. We all make mistakes. I have got fights completely wrong. So, no criticism of oddsmakers is intended.

What the "business" group is saying is: The oddsmaker is a tough, sharp, quick guy who doesn't give breaks so why make things even a LITTLE bit easier for him?

GW, Frank, I think you are both trying to be reasonable and I can see both sides of this picture. If either of you would like to email me (you know how to reach me) I will go a little more deeply into this, but I think that both groups on the board have now stated their positions in a reasonable manner and I think the air has been cleared.

 

[ukgaz]

Good thread. I apologize if I have been guilty in the MMA section in the past of talking about fights before line is released - I cant remember if I have or not. Will make it a point to not discuss fights that are awaiting the line

 

[Romi]

:thumb:

The thread has nothing to do with the Vegas lines, Frank.

I do think this topic has been a bit beaten to death now.

Still, here is my two cents' worth:

We have two groups here.

I think that some members of the board see the board as something of a social club (nothing wrong with that BTW) and primarily want to discuss fights with people who share their passion for boxing (again, absolutely nothing wrong with that).

There is another group, though, one that sees this as more of, shall we say, a business. This group does not wish to give the oddsmaker(s) any advantage, however slight, and pre-fight discussion surely DOES help an oddsmaker, if only because he might be alerted to something, however small, that he may have missed.

Let me give one example.

If a bunch of players had been saying (BEFORE the odds had been posted) that Brian Vera had a heck of a shot at upsetting Sebastien Demers in Quebec, that Vera would have opened as a +1200 underdog? Just think about it. What would you do if you were an oddsmaker and planned on making Vera +1200 but a knowledgeable group was loving Vera's chances. You would have thought: "Oops, maybe that is too generous to these guys" and you would have adjusted your odds, right? (I know I would have had I been the oddsmaker.) Yes, Vera was rightly the underdog, but +1200? Players of my acquaintance couldn't believe their luck.

So as sharp as the oddsmaker is, he is not infallible. There have been other mistakes. We all make mistakes. I have got fights completely wrong. So, no criticism of oddsmakers is intended.

What the "business" group is saying is: The oddsmaker is a tough, sharp, quick guy who doesn't give breaks so why make things even a LITTLE bit easier for him?

GW, Frank, I think you are both trying to be reasonable and I can see both sides of this picture. If either of you would like to email me (you know how to reach me) I will go a little more deeply into this, but I think that both groups on the board have now stated their positions in a reasonable manner and I think the air has been cleared.

The voice of reason. The point could not possibly have been conveyed as succinctly and with class as Graham just did. I'm too much of a schmo to have done that myself. Hopefully no hurt feelings and no grudges. Can we please leave the topic alone at that Gents? Good luck to all this week!

 

[Oddessa]

Naked Truth:

Some Doses of reality:

1. Oddsmaker here doesnt care what any of you guys bet. Its pennies on the global scale that the books deal to.

2. There are 1000+ sportsbooks out there. 950+ you never even heard of. Mostly credit and per head shops. They copy paste many sporstbooks openers. They take $500 a rattle. I cripple them betting over the year beacuse they are asleep at wheel.

3. Graham. Much Respect. Your service and writing is wonderfull and insightfull. But. After the opening number is hit, the rest is donkey plays because the sportsbooks I dont do work with woukld be dumb not to subscribe to your service. (Theres a positive endorsement)

But the players will not and CANNOT and will NOT beat the adjusted numbers and the books will not lose long term unless they are asleep at the wheel and using low limit fights as a loss leader strategy.

Got few emails about this last week...and obviously need s no explanation....but I clearly stated last week that I was going to the Hanna fight on Thursday and was not gonna sit around babysitting the OTHER 1000+ players that never even heard of Mad Jacks from all over the world that have an opinion that is as accurate as anyone here.

For me to think I know more about a boxing bout in say Belgium than someone fron Belgium betting at 4am est..when I belong sleeping....would make me the biggest donkey and egomaniac on planet. So the lins ent OTB from 12am till morning.

I cant and wont speak for every book nor do I care to. But if I had to count on the volume Madjacks creates on fights and or any touts, my dog walker would be without a job.

I BET GENTLEMEN.

again..

I BET.

You think everytime Lacierva went to pick and then back up it was air moving that money while my line sat steadily with him a s favorite. Was my only and biggest boxing wager last week...but not playing results, just trying to give a recent example.

I can say this. I am real person. So is Graham, and few others here. If people name drop, at least post under your real names.

Many offshore the bookies speak to one another. Thats why alotta the past psoters get booted from unaffiliated books.

To think GH's service is NOT subscribed or passed on is to think the sun wont come up 2mmrow. Ask NFL Tout PHIL Steele who is highly respected and a winner. I know it is 100% and where and I know his plays obviously.

I am about 56wins - 9losses on the Friday Night Morency Show weekly dating back to after 58 live TV episodes (I know Ghost Listens as should others if you like money).. giving out winners and opinions. Mostly dogs. I dont care who you bet.

Smart books dont zig and zag and try to reinvent the wheel. Smart books take the bet, and move the number.

I'm sorry for the doses of reality, but my opinion is in my number.

Get a hunch bet a bunch. Bring it. I'm not always right, but never in doubt....since 1988...

awaits the egos...or the people that have the wisdom to understand the honesty above.
Peace and may all your bets be winners.

I post at MJs only bc Major Wager has slowed down...bc I like a few guys here...and the rest of the sportsbetting forums are filled with shills and even OWNED by thier advertisers...just like Don Best.

edit link:admin

 

[rrc]

Always great to hear anything you have to offer Oddessa..thanks for stopping by.

 

[gardenweasel]

air is cleared then....except for a hard and fast rule about when to try and contribute info and when to hold your water....

still hanging out there is the question of whether we can discuss a line that hasn`t had a round prop attached to it...

i`d like one of guys that became upset to give us some parameters so i don`t have to look forward to being slammed because i mentioned something that i thought was benign....

rather not have this conversation again......so someone please clarify....i don`t mind being insulted but at some point,people that can`t express a p.o.v. without getting shitty are gonna have to expect some blowback(which is not good for the board).....

a clarification would be helpful....

much appreciated...

 

[Romi]

GW, I don't want to come across as the forum cop that dictates who should say what and when. I really don't enjoy pissing people off. After all, it is an open forum. However (opinion here) prior to the over/under being set, I think it would behoove the board to stay mum on whether they believe a stoppage will occur or not until the over/under prop line is set. Instead of saying fighter A is going to stop fighter B in about 5-6 rds. It might be better just to say I like fighter A in this one.

Floyd/Gatti over/under opened +195 over 11 1/2. I loved that line. I said I like Floyd all the way in that one but didn't mention stoppage until the over/under was set. A more recent example was Adamak/Madalone. The under opened at a VERY nice price @ 9 1/2, (could be wrong). The board was very good to stay quiet and I know of a few who slammed the line. I missed the boat on it.

I've been cool with you since I joined the board and you have been here much longer than me. Didn't mean to be a dick with the thread title but I felt the issue was getting out of hand and something needed to be said. Peace.

 

[gardenweasel]

GW, I don't want to come across as the forum cop that dictates who should say what and when. I really don't enjoy pissing people off. After all, it is an open forum. However (opinion here) prior to the over/under being set, I think it would behoove the board to stay mum on whether they believe a stoppage will occur or not until the over/under prop line is set. Instead of saying fighter A is going to stop fighter B in about 5-6 rds. It might be better just to say I like fighter A in this one.

Floyd/Gatti over/under opened +195 over 11 1/2. I loved that line. I said I like Floyd all the way in that one but didn't mention stoppage until the over/under was set. A more recent example was Adamak/Madalone. The under opened at a VERY nice price @ 9 1/2, (could be wrong). The board was very good to stay quiet and I know of a few who slammed the line. I missed the boat on it.

I've been cool with you since I joined the board and you have been here much longer than me. Didn't mean to be a dick with the thread title but I felt the issue was getting out of hand and something needed to be said. Peace.

o.k.....i was miffed because no mention of a stoppage or round prop was mentioned regarding nate/garcia...just generic stuff about him being in tough coming out of retirement vs a younger,bigger prospect....-1400 /+900 kinda tipped that off for even the greenest of boxing followers........

one thing for graham....i agree that guys take this seriously...i do(if you go back to 2002 and search me in this forum,you`ll see that it wasn`t easy getting boxing to catch on)........but i also enjoy it .......it`s not a business for me...it is for you and joey......understood...but it`s not a "business" for most......i earn a living doing something outside of boxing and mma...i prefer winning,though...and i`m serious about it.......

i know i`ll try and abide by the "unposted line" unwritten rule......but i hope that everybody doesn`t end up walking on eggshells in regard to discussing fights...i`m sure we can do both even though theres still a gray area there......

g.l. to everyone....a full card this weekend...

btw...it isn`t said often enough...kudos to ghost kid for keeping everyone on their toes posting lines/articles/snippets of info etc....he`s the straw that stirs the drink here now....i know i appreciate what he does... ...:toast

 

[punchmaster]

Naked Truth:

Some Doses of reality:

.

edit link:admin

Friday in Japan Hasegawa vs. Gonzalez- that's a major league world title fight featuring two of the best at 126. Fri night in Japan is about Thursday night here in USA.... so if lines come out at 6pm PST Thursday.... that should give us about 5 hours to get down in Japan if there is a line. Would be nice to see a line for this fight

 

[MayorgaFan]

....

....

Will the fights even happen now? Japan has bigger issues.

 

[fastfrank]

lines

lines

lines at Bodog
Hasegawa-215/Gonzalez+175
5Dimes;Has-165/Gon+145

 

[weepaul]

Let's all just make money.
Us, at the forum, taking advantage of the lines.
Joey taking advantage of the donkey's!!

:toast: :toast: