Evans loses it

[crow]

Just saw this posted on his site:

"if you started with $10,000 on Jan. 1, 2006, and followed my betting advice, here's what you would have today - $273,069.00"

:mj07:

That's a 27 fold gain :142smilie

Why in the hell then does he need other's people membership money ?

 

[nj]

What's more problematic is he's used that statistic in place of the more accurate tracking numbers. It could also say:

"if you started with $306,783 on June 28, 2008, and followed my betting advice, here's what you would have today - $273,069.00"

It's getting to the point where Evan-bashing is becoming cliche, if you don't like his service, don't pay for it. People can check his track record and decide for themselves, so I don't think we're doing a public service by warning forum dwellers. Previously, his picks moved the line greatly, so I'd play them immediately then take a hedge when the line god better for the opponent. Since his poor streak, the line no longer moves when he releases his picks.

If you have to blame anyone, blame me. He was doing great until I joined :142smilie

 

[crow]

Well, i followed closely Evan's picks for the last year or so; some of them were excellent, some others were downright amateurish.

The problem becomes his BAD plays cancel the good ones, and you're back at square one, and you have waisted your time and membership money.

A quick example: He picked Judah against Cotto ( high odds) and Andrade to upset Kessler ( +600 )


In both these examples, about any good player following the game a little would know

1. Cotto by KO ( around +150 i think) is THE PLAY and most probable outcome

2. Kessler by decision ( around +250) was a very good play considering the granite chin of Andrade

Evans simply chose the higher risk because the better odds, disregarding the 90% probable outcome that would have yielded a very nice profit.

That's BAD play; i don't need to fork out 30 bucks to know how much is +600; i join because i want to know what is the more likely outcome.

To boot, his analysis on his site about his past profits are downright dishonnest. He looks like a crook now.

 

[Romi]

I pay the 30 bucks ONLY to get information I might not otherwise have access to. I have RARELY picked a fight simply because he recommended it. In fact i can only recall 1 fight so far and that was a few weeks back when I took Palacios/Pineda under 5 hund @+160. The 1 wager paid for the site usage for better than a yr so as far as I'm concerned I got my money's worth. I say take what you want and leave the rest. Each bettor is responsible for what and how much he lays down. He took Trver over the weekend and I was waiting to get a very good price on Dawson. It never happened. The line didn't budge. The guy is on a cold streak but eventually he'll get hot again and move the lines like before. That's when a good capper capitalizes...my .02

 

[Ghost Kid]

excellent post Romi

I disagree with Evan's picks the majority of the time, but I believe the more information and the more analysis you can attain, the beter.

Then cap it yourself and make your own call.

To each his own.

But I would like to reiterate something frank said last week.

By far the best place for analysis and "respected" opinions is right here...at madjack...by far.

some very good fight pickers around here. I am humbled at times by how accurate people are.

Just my take.

 

[crow]

My point is not so much whether i think he's a good picker- i never joined, for the reasons i stated- but what do you guys make about his recent advertised profits ?

I KNOW that's not the truth.

How genuine / candid can he really be with his members when he openly misleads them about his record ?

Was he a crook from the start ?

 

[Ghost Kid]

crow

I don't want to personally attack the guy (his track record recently is probably eating at him enough without others pounding on him)

but to answer your question

the advertising

yep...i think there is a bit of dishonesty going on there for sure

 

[Zerwas]

@crow and ghost kid

Could you elaborate on that?

Did he really mislead bettors about his record?


I joined his site in february I believe and I have followed most of his picks. Actually I got most of his winners myself, but on the downisde I joined him in quite some of his losing picks lately...
so I'm pretty sure that he didnt earn my money at the end of the day...

Well, I dont know, maybe it's tough luck, or maybe he just got lucky in the beginning.

Anyway, I really think his money management and his general strategy is worthwhile.

 

[crow]

Back in the days he advertised not to bet more than 2 or 3% of the total funds; thus, even if he got CONSISTENLY lucky, he cannot possibly multiply 27 fold this TOTAL FUND.

Even if you're talking the 2-3% , he might have multiplied it by 3 or 5, or maybe a little more.

But 27 fold is a downright lie. Yet he advertises it as a fact.

Maybe he should go into politics.

 

[tonymontana]

Back in the days he advertised not to bet more than 2 or 3% of the total funds; thus, even if he got CONSISTENLY lucky, he cannot possibly multiply 27 fold this TOTAL FUND.

Even if you're talking the 2-3% , he might have multiplied it by 3 or 5, or maybe a little more.

But 27 fold is a downright lie. Yet he advertises it as a fact.

Maybe he should go into politics.

He outlines every bet he did and he also openly states that he has included some bets before the website was online. these were huge bets and winners (10 and 12 percent).

This is posting winner picks after the event and i agree they shouldnt be in his track record.
Since July 2006 he went from 32000 to 320000 in August 1 2008. For this time frame his track record is clean and true. thats an impressive record and he never did bet more than 4 percent on one fight in that time frame.
right now he lost around 20 percent and sits at 273000. Big deal. in his last 15 bets he went 2 to 13. He is down 20 percent most guys would be out cold if they went 2 to 13. Hell they would be out for the count after 2 to 10.
This is very solid risk managment.
I learned alot from Evans betting strategy also i dont follow his picks lately:142smilie

But his whole track record is out in the open right on his site so maybe you read alittle bit more before calling someone a liar.
edit link:admin

 

[crow]

Since July 2006 he went from 32000 to 320000 in August 1 2008. For this time frame his track record is clean and true. thats an impressive record and he never did bet more than 4 percent on one fight in that time frame.

I'm going to check that, even if takes me 5 hours, and i will be back making amends if needed.:SIB

 

[Ghost Kid]

He outlines every bet he did and he also openly states that he has included some bets before the website was online. these were huge bets and winners (10 and 12 percent).

This is posting winner picks after the event and i agree they shouldnt be in his track record.
Since July 2006 he went from 32000 to 320000 in August 1 2008. For this time frame his track record is clean and true. thats an impressive record and he never did bet more than 4 percent on one fight in that time frame.
right now he lost around 20 percent and sits at 273000. Big deal. in his last 15 bets he went 2 to 13. He is down 20 percent most guys would be out cold if they went 2 to 13. Hell they would be out for the count after 2 to 10.
This is very solid risk managment.
I learned alot from Evans betting strategy also i dont follow his picks lately:142smilie

But his whole track record is out in the open right on his site so maybe you read alittle bit more before calling someone a liar.edit link:admin

Tony

Absolutely cannot argue with you regarding his risk management.

He has an excellent excellent long term strategy. The way he bets each week allows him to take the big hits and keep going.

I have also seen him pick some incredible winners in the past.

I'm sure he will turn it around.

That being said, I have never seen anyone here (who openly posts their picks each week) go 2 for 13. That's more than a cold streak. That's freezing.

 

[Kramden]

Tony

Absolutely cannot argue with you regarding his risk management.

He has an excellent excellent long term strategy. The way he bets each week allows him to take the big hits and keep going.

I have also seen him pick some incredible winners in the past.

I'm sure he will turn it around.

That being said, I have never seen anyone here (who openly posts their picks each week) go 2 for 13. That's more than a cold streak. That's freezing.

Wow, this thread is getting legs.:0corn

Anyway, not many can go 13-2 and not have some good luck. Conversely, it?s nearly impossible to go 2-13 without luck going the other way.

Some picks of his were reasonable but didn?t fly:

-Kevin Kelly could have won against David Rodela
-Angulo should have hit the under 8.5
-Some say Zuniga could have gotten the nod over Inkin
-Salcido was chumping Escobedo until he got careless and caught
-Verquan Kimbrough was awarded a draw with Michael Clark, I heard reports Clark won at least 7 rounds.
-Javier Jauregui lost a super tight contest to Kid Diamond.
-Nate Campbell was scratched and I believe he would have won
-Marquez was on his way to a decision (his prop) when he cold-cocked Casamayor late.

All of the above except Angulo/under were solid underdog plays. If even half of them hit he probably would have made money in spite of the losses. Of course there were few lemons out of that ?freezing? streak, too but that always goes with the territory.

 

[buttchomp]

Wow, this thread is getting legs.:0corn

Anyway, not many can go 13-2 and not have some good luck. Conversely, it?s nearly impossible to go 2-13 without luck going the other way.

Some picks of his were reasonable but didn?t fly:

-Kevin Kelly could have won against David Rodela
-Angulo should have hit the under 8.5
-Some say Zuniga could have gotten the nod over Inkin
-Salcido was chumping Escobedo until he got careless and caught
-Verquan Kimbrough was awarded a draw with Michael Clark, I heard reports Clark won at least 7 rounds.
-Javier Jauregui lost a super tight contest to Kid Diamond.
-Nate Campbell was scratched and I believe he would have won
-Marquez was on his way to a decision (his prop) when he cold-cocked Casamayor late.

All of the above except Angulo/under were solid underdog plays. If even half of them hit he probably would have made money in spite of the losses. Of course there were few lemons out of that ?freezing? streak, too but that always goes with the territory.

Evan, is that you???

 

[crow]

Gentlemens, the results are in; there's good news and ....still good news.

The good news are on about 80% of the months ( 20 out of 25) Evans consistenly wins a small amount ( and when he loses in a given month ( 5 out of 25), it's by very small amounts compared to his wins); consider, for an initial ten thousands dollars;


2006:september: +700 (+0.07%)
october: -200 (-0.02)
november: +1600 (+0.16%)
december:+1000 (+0.1%)

total: 3100 won

2007:january:+500 (+0.05%)
february: +1100 (+0.11% )
march: +150 (+0.015%)
april: -600 ( -0.06%)
mai: +250 (+0.025%)
june: -250 (-0.025%)
july: +1800 (+0.18%)
august: +2100 (+0.21%)
september: +2200 (+0.22%)
october: +1050 (+0.105%)
november: +400 (+0.04%)
december: +1700 (+0.17%)

total: 10400 won

2008: january: +250 (+0.025%)
february: +900 (+0.09%)
march: +1000 (+0.1%)
april: +250 (+0.025%)
mai: +1000 (+0.1%)
june: +800 (+0.08%)
july: +700 (+0.07%)
august: -50 ( -0.005%)
september: -800 ( -0.08%)

total won: 4050

I didn't include the period before 20 august 2006, because it apparently wasn't onlineedit link:admin, and on the other hand, Evans seemed to enjoy an exceptionnal HOT STREAK ( 15 hits out of 18 possible) at higher stakes ( 8% or so) (while his maximum thereafter was never higher than 4%; no exceptions) , which simply NEVER reproduced itself.

Sorry, the things before 20 august 2006 DON'T COUNT.:nono:

So, if one uses ten thousands dollars and keeps betting the same % of it ( by excluding the wins from the total), Evans wins 3100 dollars in 2006 , 10400 dollars in 2007 and 4050 dollars in 2008, for a total of 17550 dollars over the course of 25 months, an increase of +175 % of the initial stake.

NOT BAD.

If now, one reinjects the winnings of each month into the initial total amount and uses it ( and thus doesn't withdraw anything for 25 months) , Evans wins him 3380 dollars in 2006, then 25718 dollars in 2007 ( a very good year), then 42357 dollars at the end of september 2008, an increase of +423 % of their initial ten thousands dollars stake.


NOT BAD AT ALL.

But that's not the ten fold announced, sorry ( that's the not so good news) ( but hey, who cares ??)

 

[crow]

Since July 2006 he went from 32000 to 320000 in August 1 2008. For this time frame his track record is clean and true.

Well, i was right:

Even if you're talking the 2-3% , he might have multiplied it by 3 or 5, or maybe a little more.

His record ISN'T TRUE.:nono:

It still is great though ( 17 % interest each month for two years, it beats banking interest rates)

 

[Zerwas]

Wow, thank you a lot crow, that really looks like a lot of work!

I wasnt really aware that his picks werent online until the 20th of august...I knew about his inittial success though which made his record look better than it really is.

His record looks still pretty good, but his recent streak looks pretty bad, well in fact, he hasnt been winning money for quite some time now...

 

[crow]

His record looks still pretty good, but his recent streak looks pretty bad, well in fact, he hasnt been winning money for quite some time now...

The recent bad streak is worrysome, but as i showed, is insignificative in the long run ( on his best month, he won 0.22 % of his stake, while on his worst ( september 2008) he lost only 0.08 %).

He's still up 0.40 % this year 2008.

This is not multiplying 10 times your initial stake ( much less 27 times) but it still constant win.

The real problem becomes, as Romi witnessed, there's only a few online books where you can place some wagers on certain obscure matchups, and the limits are reached very quickly, which therefore makes the odds decrease.

Bottom line is Evan's methods work, but only if you can find the book to play it, and at the right odds.

 

[Zerwas]

Well, its insignificant if you have participated in all his winnings...and I havent...anyways, his bad streak makes you wonder if he can really turn it around.

I'm not expecting him to go 13 and 2 in his next 15 fights, but I really wonder if he can recapture the form that he had in 2007, or if he just got lucky....

 

[crow]

Consider too that if you reached after 25 months a capital of 57000 dollars or so, 1 % becomes 570 dollars, 4 % becomes 2280 dollars; where are you going to place this kind of bets online ?

5 DIMES has 500 dollars limits at best ( 100 dollars if you bet specific outcomes), The Greek doesn't allow big bets on underdogs, BET365 virtually eliminates winning accounts, Pinnacle has litteraly gone to shit for boxing, and Sportsbook and co eject players winning big like Romi, or simply make you wait months ( when it doesn't simply erases your account).

There's only a finite number of trustworthy sites where you can place 2000 dollars boxing bets without worrying getting shafted, and it gets harder and harder not to be ejected/ limited when you start winning big.