I thought that Jonathon Kaye might bounce back this week as he seemed to come back to form last week , putting excepted.
FBR Capitol Open( Kemper)
- Thread starter kjls04202
- Start date
a couple of e/w outrights @ sportingbet both @ 100/1
Hoch and McRoy
If Hoch is healthy he may contend in this easy field and has some very good course form here. McRoy has made several cuts in a row after going to new putter and finished 29th last week despite an 84 in 3rd rd.Has some course form placing top 5 two years back.
May be final week of posting outrights. Will discontinue posting place only as all my outs are heading south.
The downgrading place odds @ 5 dimes is disturbing last week. Gamebookers pays 1/6 place only.
Boyles has 1/4 e/w but only 1/5 place only.
Oly now has sporatic place only after cut.
E/W wagers are 1 unit total (1/2 win & 1/2 unit place)on each player
Hoch and McRoy
If Hoch is healthy he may contend in this easy field and has some very good course form here. McRoy has made several cuts in a row after going to new putter and finished 29th last week despite an 84 in 3rd rd.Has some course form placing top 5 two years back.
May be final week of posting outrights. Will discontinue posting place only as all my outs are heading south.
The downgrading place odds @ 5 dimes is disturbing last week. Gamebookers pays 1/6 place only.
Boyles has 1/4 e/w but only 1/5 place only.
Oly now has sporatic place only after cut.
E/W wagers are 1 unit total (1/2 win & 1/2 unit place)on each player
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Nordicbet are feeling generous this week so I've placed all my outright bets there.
Allenby 49/1
Appleby 39/1
Riley 89/1
Allenby 49/1
Appleby 39/1
Riley 89/1
DTB could you explain something to me. I am pretty much a rookie yet in golf so I do not understand some things. You talked about ****** downgrading their place bets. The last couple of weeks I have looked at their futures and it seems to me that mathematically their odds are in line. For instance Hoch is 95-1 outright and he pays 19-1 for 5 places. Have they paid better in the past or what is it that I don't get. Thanks.
- Feb 26, 2001
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He's talking about the LPGA. That cost me last week. I refuse to bet at the lower price and that cost me on Matthew. 
Thanks TU. This week Playing Mickelson -105 over Love. Will be Love's first tournament since his brother-in-law committed suicide. Story is that it was mainly about embezzeling funds from Love while being his business manager. Hard to believe his mind will totally be on golf.
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Outright plays (1 unit):
Padraig Harrington to win 20/1 e.w. available generally
Not a player who wins enough and this would be the first time on American soil, but a top-5 place finish would be enough to cover the stakes on the other plays. He has one win and two 2nd place finishes in his last six starts - one runners-up spot was in the Players Championship - so he is certainly playing well enough to win. Last week's 13th place finish was a very creditable performance against a much stronger field, so it should again all depend on how negative Padraig gets about himself.
Stuart Appleby to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Paddy Power and Stan James
Appleby certainly has course form to note. In seven previous visits he has finished outside the top-20 just once and did win the event in 1998. He has been a mixture of missed cuts and high finishes in the past couple of months, so while he is avoidable for the matchups, he does stand a good chance of securing another top-5 finish if he is playing at the weekend.
Charles Howell to win 33/1 e.w. @ Tote
He looks to have discovered some of his early season form in the past few months. He finished 7th in the Wachovia Championship four weeks ago and was the first round leader at the Memorial Tournament last week. He would have had a better chance to hold onto that lead had the weather been more favourable for his game, but at least he is threatening to win again. Creditable performances in the last two years lend support to his credentials this time around. Taking the inferior place odds with Tote over the 28/1 available with Bet365 and Stan James.
Padraig Harrington to win 20/1 e.w. available generally
Not a player who wins enough and this would be the first time on American soil, but a top-5 place finish would be enough to cover the stakes on the other plays. He has one win and two 2nd place finishes in his last six starts - one runners-up spot was in the Players Championship - so he is certainly playing well enough to win. Last week's 13th place finish was a very creditable performance against a much stronger field, so it should again all depend on how negative Padraig gets about himself.
Stuart Appleby to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Paddy Power and Stan James
Appleby certainly has course form to note. In seven previous visits he has finished outside the top-20 just once and did win the event in 1998. He has been a mixture of missed cuts and high finishes in the past couple of months, so while he is avoidable for the matchups, he does stand a good chance of securing another top-5 finish if he is playing at the weekend.
Charles Howell to win 33/1 e.w. @ Tote
He looks to have discovered some of his early season form in the past few months. He finished 7th in the Wachovia Championship four weeks ago and was the first round leader at the Memorial Tournament last week. He would have had a better chance to hold onto that lead had the weather been more favourable for his game, but at least he is threatening to win again. Creditable performances in the last two years lend support to his credentials this time around. Taking the inferior place odds with Tote over the 28/1 available with Bet365 and Stan James.
Sports Student
Sorry just now seeing your post.
5 dimes has been paying 1/5 of their win odds on place.
However last week both Mathews and Kim were 40/1 yet their place odds were 7/1 and 13/2 respectively. A substantial cut.
A one time there were few books that offered place only as most made you bet E/W to get the place. Which is obvious huge advantage for books.
A: if you bet 4 players you have lost 3 wagers automtically.
B: Using above Mathews and Kim as example if you are forced to take win to get place your true place odds are 1/2 posted amount because of extra bet you have to place on win.
Not saying place only is better than E/W it is just a more conservative approach,Our Euro mates here are very successful at E/W as that hit some big #'s consistantly. It is just not in my nature to forfeit 3 bets on 4 players before they tee off.
Now I will say this imho books much prefer E/W wagers and this is my reasoning.1st they have reduced odds on place only usually,2nd they will usually always line win, and e/w for a time period before they put up place only,limiting their exposure. Lately more books have started to offer place only especially on Euro side of the creek. However this recent declines in odds has me fearing that if they are not profitable,their 1st avenue is to cut odds,the 2nd is to quit offering it as an option.
Trampled: While SIA has for the most part very very sporatic lining beards and bush they did put up lines late last week(friday, assume they don't want alot of play with late posting) and have place only.
They had Kim @ 10/1 place so I took a little action there also.
Congratulations on your recent win with Sports InterAction.
----------------------------------------
WIN DETAILS
----------------------------------------
Event: Kellogg - Keebler Classic
Date: May 30
Time: 09:00
Selection: Kim M H (top 4)
Payout: 220.00
----------------------------------------
Sorry just now seeing your post.
5 dimes has been paying 1/5 of their win odds on place.
However last week both Mathews and Kim were 40/1 yet their place odds were 7/1 and 13/2 respectively. A substantial cut.
A one time there were few books that offered place only as most made you bet E/W to get the place. Which is obvious huge advantage for books.
A: if you bet 4 players you have lost 3 wagers automtically.
B: Using above Mathews and Kim as example if you are forced to take win to get place your true place odds are 1/2 posted amount because of extra bet you have to place on win.
Not saying place only is better than E/W it is just a more conservative approach,Our Euro mates here are very successful at E/W as that hit some big #'s consistantly. It is just not in my nature to forfeit 3 bets on 4 players before they tee off.
Now I will say this imho books much prefer E/W wagers and this is my reasoning.1st they have reduced odds on place only usually,2nd they will usually always line win, and e/w for a time period before they put up place only,limiting their exposure. Lately more books have started to offer place only especially on Euro side of the creek. However this recent declines in odds has me fearing that if they are not profitable,their 1st avenue is to cut odds,the 2nd is to quit offering it as an option.
Trampled: While SIA has for the most part very very sporatic lining beards and bush they did put up lines late last week(friday, assume they don't want alot of play with late posting) and have place only.
They had Kim @ 10/1 place so I took a little action there also.
Congratulations on your recent win with Sports InterAction.
----------------------------------------
WIN DETAILS
----------------------------------------
Event: Kellogg - Keebler Classic
Date: May 30
Time: 09:00
Selection: Kim M H (top 4)
Payout: 220.00
----------------------------------------
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Looks like a good value play on Annika IMO. She is dominant, but surely there will be a large fatigue effect after the Colonial and last week. I think Se Ri Pak will certainly go close and you'd only need one other to finish ahead of her.
I'm not convinced about Howell though. His weekend scoring average is not great - he is not a player who will play hard over the weekend just to finish in the top-25. When in contention, he could be a good contender for the win, but I would want to side with grinders for those props.
I'm not convinced about Howell though. His weekend scoring average is not great - he is not a player who will play hard over the weekend just to finish in the top-25. When in contention, he could be a good contender for the win, but I would want to side with grinders for those props.
adding a few 72 holes
Beem -115 over Oly @ WSEX
We made a few bucks fading Beem for a while but looks like he may have turned it around with 4 straight cuts and only 3rds barely over par in 16 rds and can play this course when on with a 1st and 2nd in past 4 years.Oly conversley if you discount his Euro events has been cut 2 of last 4 stateside with 5 rds over par in 12 rds.
Funk -110 over Austin @ SIA (ties lose)
Strong B vs C @ good odds
Trip -110 over Sutton @ SIA
While it appears Sutton is recovering from his ailments Trip is a steady eddie with excellent rating edge on Stans stats at a pick em.
Beem -115 over Oly @ WSEX
We made a few bucks fading Beem for a while but looks like he may have turned it around with 4 straight cuts and only 3rds barely over par in 16 rds and can play this course when on with a 1st and 2nd in past 4 years.Oly conversley if you discount his Euro events has been cut 2 of last 4 stateside with 5 rds over par in 12 rds.
Funk -110 over Austin @ SIA (ties lose)
Strong B vs C @ good odds
Trip -110 over Sutton @ SIA
While it appears Sutton is recovering from his ailments Trip is a steady eddie with excellent rating edge on Stans stats at a pick em.
thanks for the response DTB. Have not been following all the different posts the last few weeks so did not know this was about LPGA. Have cut down a little overall lately and made the mistake of playing less golf instead of just going with your selections . Good luck in keeping it going.
. Good luck in keeping it going.Matchup plays (1 unit):
Robert Allenby to beat Rich Beem -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Beem's course history is certainly famous. He was a 500/1 winner in 1999 and also finished 2nd last year just as he began another streak of career form that eventually won him the PGA Championship. He is not in the same form as last year with 15th place being his highest finish in the last four months. It can also be recalled that he missed the cut in 2000 and 2001. Barring any repeat of his stomach problems last week, Allenby is in much better form and has been far more consistent this and every other year.
Kirk Triplett to beat Rich Beem -120 @ William Hill
There is nothing wrong with Triplett's form either. He has five top-20 finishes (two of them top-5) in his last seven starts. His record at Avenel is almost as volatile as Beem's with two top-10s and two missed cuts in the past six visits, but it is on current that he has the decisive edge. He looks good to grind out a top-20 finish which makes a good matchup play against a player who plays boom or bust.
Mark O'Meara to beat Hank Kuehne -120 @ WSEX
Kuehne's burst of form is over. In his last four events he has missed two cuts and finished outside the top-40 in the other two with just three of twelve rounds in the 60s. Over the same period, O'Meara played in three of the same events and never finished below Kuehne, so with a good course history also on his side, this is an uncommon play in favour of the veteran.
Robert Allenby to beat Rich Beem -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Beem's course history is certainly famous. He was a 500/1 winner in 1999 and also finished 2nd last year just as he began another streak of career form that eventually won him the PGA Championship. He is not in the same form as last year with 15th place being his highest finish in the last four months. It can also be recalled that he missed the cut in 2000 and 2001. Barring any repeat of his stomach problems last week, Allenby is in much better form and has been far more consistent this and every other year.
Kirk Triplett to beat Rich Beem -120 @ William Hill
There is nothing wrong with Triplett's form either. He has five top-20 finishes (two of them top-5) in his last seven starts. His record at Avenel is almost as volatile as Beem's with two top-10s and two missed cuts in the past six visits, but it is on current that he has the decisive edge. He looks good to grind out a top-20 finish which makes a good matchup play against a player who plays boom or bust.
Mark O'Meara to beat Hank Kuehne -120 @ WSEX
Kuehne's burst of form is over. In his last four events he has missed two cuts and finished outside the top-40 in the other two with just three of twelve rounds in the 60s. Over the same period, O'Meara played in three of the same events and never finished below Kuehne, so with a good course history also on his side, this is an uncommon play in favour of the veteran.
Not a tournament that I have a great deal of interest in. THe week
before a major is very difficult to handicap. I will be even m ore conservative
this week than I usually am. Have never played this course but Not an extremely long or
difficult course.
I had looked hard at appleby here against allenby because of applebys great record here and his
play at Memorial last week. But I just cant pull the trigger because of
the greens in reg stat. Allenby ranks much higher and this was the deciding factor.
I have decided on one play that being Herron over Maggert
Herron has a 7,7,6 place here in last 5 years which is very good.
He also had three solid round last year with an 81 in the 3rd round
that i cannot explain. MaggertHas never finished in top 15 here and ranks lower in
the greens in reg stat.
Herron -18 over Maggert 1 unit pinnacle
that was the number when i bet it yesterday
i see it has moved
good luck
before a major is very difficult to handicap. I will be even m ore conservative
this week than I usually am. Have never played this course but Not an extremely long or
difficult course.
I had looked hard at appleby here against allenby because of applebys great record here and his
play at Memorial last week. But I just cant pull the trigger because of
the greens in reg stat. Allenby ranks much higher and this was the deciding factor.
I have decided on one play that being Herron over Maggert
Herron has a 7,7,6 place here in last 5 years which is very good.
He also had three solid round last year with an 81 in the 3rd round
that i cannot explain. MaggertHas never finished in top 15 here and ranks lower in
the greens in reg stat.
Herron -18 over Maggert 1 unit pinnacle
that was the number when i bet it yesterday
i see it has moved
good luck
also saw where beem is -15 over olz at wsex
as you know beem has a very good record here and i do not believe olz can one putt every green again this week
played for 1/2 unit
good luck
as you know beem has a very good record here and i do not believe olz can one putt every green again this week
played for 1/2 unit
good luck
Taking Mickelson at 12/1. If he's going to win this year, this is the spot. He won't find easier competition.