Preview & outright plays:
Very strange week! The week before the US Open and some of the toughest conditions the players will find all season and the PGA Tour swaps this event and the Buick Classic so there is an easy course played the week before the Open. As a result only one player from the World top-10 is here and just five from the top-25. At least the Senior PGA Tour got it right and delivered the easy Springhouse course as a sweetener for the pros who had had to endure Ridgewood at the Senior PGA Championship the week before. The other strange feature about this week is Mickelson's entry. Is he trying to avoid playing against Tiger? He skipped the prestigious Memorial Tournament which is played on a course with a Major set up and has played in the rather second-rate Kemper Open and St Jude Classic. Hardly ideal preparation for the US Open. Very strange indeed!
As for the course itself, Southwind is not long, a par-71, and there is a complete absence of bunkers or hazards at the landing areas. It makes scoring very low and a birdie-fest is an annual occurrence here. Again, hardly ideal preparation for the US Open! But this is also a specialist event. The course features a spongy type of grass called Zoysia, which sits the ball up on the rolling fairways. This can cause a bit of difficulty with long iron approach shots, needing someone with course experience to play the shot. The rough is Bermuda grass which will ensure the ball will nestle down even if the rough is not long. There is an acquired taste to this course and the hot, humid conditions that greet the players this week.
Avoiding Mickelson who doesn't convert enough top-3 finishes into wins to justify his single-figure odds this week, the three selections are Scott Hoch, David Toms and Kirk Triplett. Hoch has never actually finished in the top-5 in this event, despite liking the hot and humid conditions. He is a selection on his current form which has seen him record just one round over par in his last sixteen and that was last Sunday and solely because of the two-shot penalty he incurred when sparring with a tree. With one win already this year, he should have a career-best this year at Southwind.
The second pick is David Toms who is in just as good form as Hoch. His only round over par in the last twelve was at the Compaq Classic which he won and his last four finishes read: 9th, 1st, 11th and 8th. Also like Hoch, his record is not that spectacular here with a career-best of 15th last year, though for a 3rd round 75 it would have been very much better, and again like Hoch, he has the perfect game for this course: not long off the tee, but straight and with good all-round stats. On current form, he should also post a Southwind career-best this week.
Having stated that this is a specialist event, then at least one pick should have a decent track record here and that is Kirk Triplett. Of his 32 rounds at Southwind, only one has been over par (73, 1993) and he has finished in the top-15 in five of the last six seasons. His best finish this season has been 6th at the Masters, so he is a decent price, but given his history here and the similarity of his short, but accurate game to those of Hoch and Toms, he is expected to feature at some stage this week.
Outright plays:
Scott Hoch to win 20/1 e.w. @
Olympic or
Sports.com
David Toms to win 28/1 e.w. @
NetBetSports
Kirk Triplett to win 60/1 e.w. @
Olympic
