Louisville +3.5 1100/1000
Got the hook from a local, might be able to get the hook come game day.
Got the hook from a local, might be able to get the hook come game day.
Final Four GOY
- Thread starter LifeLongLoser
- Start date
If this is your GOY and you decided to post it, wouldn't you at least provide some analysis and share with us the "huge" disparity between Illinois and Louisville? Thanks.
Why Scott - so you can post 3 pages why he is wrong? You arent convinced nor will you be, and it isnt as if you arent sure which way to go and want some guidance, so dont act as if it has some real value to you. If folks want to follow they will, and if not they wont. I almost never post analysis of my Big 12 games and I win at a very nice clip and noone complains. Cashing is what matters, not the anlaysis or trying to give reasons for you to snipe.
I luv it..mad fighting words... :mj07:
gl on the the Cards...not that it matters, but I like em also... :mj07:
gl on the the Cards...not that it matters, but I like em also... :mj07:
volfan said:
Scared? :scared
:mj07:
I have little less than 7k (total $$$ at risk) in futures for the whole tourney and my 6 teams. I will win around 10k if either UNC or Illinois wins it all. My 4 other teams tanked. (WF, KU, GT, UW)
Pinnacle has prop bet and I called Pinnacle, and they told me they would allow me to wager $3500 to win little over $7000 on Michigan St. or Louisville winning it all at +214 I think. I thought about it but I decided not to hedge. If I was worried about losing, I would take the guarantee of $7000 profit or making couple hundred profit. So your post saying I am scared is bogus. My money is where my mouth is since since so far I have chosen NOT to hedge.
However, I keep hearing Louisville is the right play, or its a GOY etc, but NOBODY here at madjacks (as far as I have seen) can explain why! They just say they like UL and thats good enough reasoning. That is why I have not been convinced is because NOBODY here has given solid analysis backing up their "opinion." Just look at Volfans and LifeLongLoser's post here in this thread. They love UL but don't offer any type of explanation. I guess I come to madjacks for different reasons. I come here to be educated, not to read someones pick. Not sure why people are afraid to analyze a game.
Sorry "if" I offended you LifeLongLoser for asking you to give some type of analysis to back up your big play since you said it was your GOY and risking 1k on it. It seems like I offended Sun Tzu.
*BTW, there is nothing wrong just posting your picks, but is there anything wrong asking for someone to post their reasonings behind their picks? Maybe LifeLongLoser has some good angles he could share with the board. He obviously feels strong about UL covering against Illinois.
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7k in futures but says 200 bucks on Illinois over Arizona was a "big bet"
And I am not offended. Just your usual bs rquest for info to ridicule rather than for information purposes as you already have picked your side. Is there anything anyone could say to change your mind? Of course not?
Buit I am surprised you are so anti-UL considering they beat the ever living crap out of your beloved Pac 10 champion Huskies who beat the same AZ team twice that had Illinois beaten on essentially their home court. Of course, somehow your comparisons of "who played who " become meaningless when it hurts you.
And I am not offended. Just your usual bs rquest for info to ridicule rather than for information purposes as you already have picked your side. Is there anything anyone could say to change your mind? Of course not?
Buit I am surprised you are so anti-UL considering they beat the ever living crap out of your beloved Pac 10 champion Huskies who beat the same AZ team twice that had Illinois beaten on essentially their home court. Of course, somehow your comparisons of "who played who " become meaningless when it hurts you.
LifeLongLoser said:
Thanks and I look forward to reading it!
Sun Tzu
Why do you harp on this? I bet between $10 and $10,000. My biggest bet ever was over $9,000 on USC -6 over Michigan in RB 2 years ago. My "average" plays are between $10-$200, so $200 is a large wager for me. I make my bread and butter on my $500+ plays but I rarely have them so I don't calculate them as average plays. I usually win over 70% of my $500 + plays but I expect that and thats why I bet them so big.
WHAT IS WRONG WITH ASKING FOR INFO? This creates discussion and only reason you would object to this is you don't like to THINK! This forum is meant for "picks and discussion related to NCAA BASKETBALL" Maybe you like to see someone post a pick and bet blindly. I DON'T!
Congrats to UL for beating a very good UW squad. When UW played and beat AZ, they did it with a full squad for the game. Against UL, UW had their 2 best players with 3 fouls each in 1h. Coincidently, that is precisely when UL made this big run to take the big lead in 1h. I am sure AZ could have beaten UW 3 times if the 2 best players for UW had 3 fouls in 1h AND rest of UW squad in foul trouble. Just one of those things and congrats for UL for winning. Not saying it was BS officiating, but I would give UL MORE CREDIT if they beat a full UW squad for the entire game. Fouls are part of the game and congrats for UL. BTW, UL also played a SUPERB all around game. That wasn't an average/good UL performance that beat a depleted UW squad. It was an exceptional UL performance and they need to repeat that to have chance in beating Illinois.
I agree with Scott on this game. I have gone back and forth all week... Simply Illini has the advantage on the inside. The guard play is a wash. Augustine has more height and is more athletic than the front court of L'Ville. Powell is a beast who can also take his man outside.
This game will be relatively close with a lot of leads changing hands. But I give the advantage to offensive rebounds and points in transition to the Illini. No one (in my opinion) from the L'Ville front court will run with Augustine in transition.
Also, I look for Ingram (spelling?) to have a huge impact in this game for the Illini with rebounds and three point shots.
With that said if Dean, Obannon, and Garcia get hot watch out.
This game will be relatively close with a lot of leads changing hands. But I give the advantage to offensive rebounds and points in transition to the Illini. No one (in my opinion) from the L'Ville front court will run with Augustine in transition.
Also, I look for Ingram (spelling?) to have a huge impact in this game for the Illini with rebounds and three point shots.
With that said if Dean, Obannon, and Garcia get hot watch out.
First off I would like to say that I would rather be on the contrarian side of of a bet, as I believe the public will be all over Illinois, as only a 3 pint fav. Illinois hasn't lost all season except for one game, on the last shot. People think Illinois can't lose, but they can, and this game will not be an upset. I think its fair to favor Illinois given the cricumstances and their resume and thier record being 36-1 and being a one seed and their only loss at the buzzer.
Louisville is peaking right, and imo, they have some of the most convincing wins of the tourney, beating Ga tech by 22, and Wash by 14. Lousiville actually matches up well with Illinois. Illinois plays that fast paced game relying on their guards and you won't beat them if you play thier game as they have the best guards in the country. Louisville doesn't play that type of game. They play a similar game like Arizona does. Louisville has a taller backcourt with illinois gaurds only being 6-3,6-3,and 6-0. Louisville's gaurds are 6-7 and 6-4. Illinois has escaped close games against iowa and Arkansas who both have taller gaurds. Lousvilles's frontcourt will be able to contain an overrated Illinios James Augustine.
I think this game will come down to Garcia, and Williams. Garcia is the first superstar guard Illinois has seen in four months, since the Illini took on and dismantled,Chris Paul and Wake Forest on Dec. 1. While Paul was struggling earlier this season, Illinois will face Garcia at his best. He's averaging 21 points and 4.3 assists in the NCAA Tournament, and shooting 44 percent on 3 pointers. Garcia will be the differance maker along with Louisville's ability to shoot the 3 ball, like Arizona. This team is peaking right now, while Illinois was playing their best ball earlier in the season.
Dean and O'Bannon are going to be impact players and they are playing the best basketball of their young lives. Louisville is peaking at the right time and Illinois is going to be caught by surprise.
Louisville wins by 4.
Louisville is peaking right, and imo, they have some of the most convincing wins of the tourney, beating Ga tech by 22, and Wash by 14. Lousiville actually matches up well with Illinois. Illinois plays that fast paced game relying on their guards and you won't beat them if you play thier game as they have the best guards in the country. Louisville doesn't play that type of game. They play a similar game like Arizona does. Louisville has a taller backcourt with illinois gaurds only being 6-3,6-3,and 6-0. Louisville's gaurds are 6-7 and 6-4. Illinois has escaped close games against iowa and Arkansas who both have taller gaurds. Lousvilles's frontcourt will be able to contain an overrated Illinios James Augustine.
I think this game will come down to Garcia, and Williams. Garcia is the first superstar guard Illinois has seen in four months, since the Illini took on and dismantled,Chris Paul and Wake Forest on Dec. 1. While Paul was struggling earlier this season, Illinois will face Garcia at his best. He's averaging 21 points and 4.3 assists in the NCAA Tournament, and shooting 44 percent on 3 pointers. Garcia will be the differance maker along with Louisville's ability to shoot the 3 ball, like Arizona. This team is peaking right now, while Illinois was playing their best ball earlier in the season.
Dean and O'Bannon are going to be impact players and they are playing the best basketball of their young lives. Louisville is peaking at the right time and Illinois is going to be caught by surprise.
Louisville wins by 4.
This is a message forum, I encourage all discussion and enjoy the debates that go on pregame. Scott I am looking forward to your thoughts on this game.
gl LLL, i think LOU has 50% to win SU if not more ... to say this will happen if that will happen isnt really relevant ... games are like chess matches or infinite Bingo combinations, you just never know how the tumblers will break down, but the best team generally wins each nite in hoops and fball ...
My pal won a state championship once after losing to same team 4xs in the season--how can that happen, I mean the better team lost, WOW
take care
gregg
ps one thing i have admired about pitino teams forever is his uncanny ability to use pro time to make seemingly avg. players great--i.e. pudgy billy donovan at Providence, went from nothing as jr. to one of best guards in nation as sr. when they crushed gtwn in reg. final and made final four in '87... he did the same with many others at KY (tho took great kids and made them greater)... seems his magic has returned with his perimeters again in Louisville
My pal won a state championship once after losing to same team 4xs in the season--how can that happen, I mean the better team lost, WOW
take care
gregg
ps one thing i have admired about pitino teams forever is his uncanny ability to use pro time to make seemingly avg. players great--i.e. pudgy billy donovan at Providence, went from nothing as jr. to one of best guards in nation as sr. when they crushed gtwn in reg. final and made final four in '87... he did the same with many others at KY (tho took great kids and made them greater)... seems his magic has returned with his perimeters again in Louisville
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LifeLongLoser
Good write-up. My question to you is this. Why are you so confident in UL? They beat a very good UW squad but with their 2 best players in foul trouble. So that can't bring about "great" confidence. I would be more impressed if UL beat UW without the 2 best players for UW in major foul trouble. Remember, UL made their run when the 2 best players on UW sat down because of 3 fouls each. UL struggled against WVU who many on this board think has marginal athletes. Those were UL 2 last game. They did blow out GT (another very good team although hot and cold team) and won close game against LA Lafayette. Isn't Illinois on a whole new level compared to all the teams UL beat? YES UL will beat Illinois if 2 of their best players get in foul trouble. But how likely is that? Therefore, I am asking where is the confidence in UL? Remember, you are making this a GOY $1000 bet, not just a normal wager. Since you are doing that, you must feel VERY STRONGLY about UL. I don't see where you can feel so strong about UL with the info I just posted.
Then you have the height advantage for Illinois down low. We saw what height advantage did for AZ against OSU and Ilinois. Now Illinois gets to use height advantage on UL and Augustine is not an over-rated player.
Illinois bread and butter are their 3 guards. Hard to play great defense against 3pg's on the court same time. I don't think the zone will work for UL and they are not a great man to man defensive team. WVU took advantage of UL zone and I think Illinois has better shooters and athletes than WVU. BTW, Illinois also has an inside game with major height advantage, something WVU did not have! Thats pretty scary if you are backing UL. :scared
Sat. they played AZ and AZ has Salim Staudamire. Enough said.
Garica is super talented and def. creates mismatch for Illinois. You def. have that going in your favor!
EXCELLENT POINT! :clap:
Thats why I said I think UL has to shoot lights out to win. Most of the time, this team relies on great outside shooting. They might be able to get their shots off becaus of height advantage, but they still have to make their basket with defender right smack in front of them because we all know Illinois plays great perimeter defense. Couldn't having big guards also be a disadvantage? Wouldn't smaller quicker guards be able to dribble around the bigger guards? Thus creating foul trouble? I think it works both ways. The difference in this game is the big guys for Illinois and height advantage down low!
I agree.
I disagree.
Not gonna wish you good luck since I have Illinois to win it all, but you brought up some very good pts! Hell, I'll take 1-3pt Illinois win and we both are happy!
Then I guess you don't handicap games. This site is about handicapping games. Therefore, you must make predictions on what you think will happen. Otherwise your betting blindly.
What someone thinks will happen is what determines if they wager on the game or not and how much $$$ they want to wager.
Good write-up. My question to you is this. Why are you so confident in UL? They beat a very good UW squad but with their 2 best players in foul trouble. So that can't bring about "great" confidence. I would be more impressed if UL beat UW without the 2 best players for UW in major foul trouble. Remember, UL made their run when the 2 best players on UW sat down because of 3 fouls each. UL struggled against WVU who many on this board think has marginal athletes. Those were UL 2 last game. They did blow out GT (another very good team although hot and cold team) and won close game against LA Lafayette. Isn't Illinois on a whole new level compared to all the teams UL beat? YES UL will beat Illinois if 2 of their best players get in foul trouble. But how likely is that? Therefore, I am asking where is the confidence in UL? Remember, you are making this a GOY $1000 bet, not just a normal wager. Since you are doing that, you must feel VERY STRONGLY about UL. I don't see where you can feel so strong about UL with the info I just posted.
Then you have the height advantage for Illinois down low. We saw what height advantage did for AZ against OSU and Ilinois. Now Illinois gets to use height advantage on UL and Augustine is not an over-rated player.
Illinois bread and butter are their 3 guards. Hard to play great defense against 3pg's on the court same time. I don't think the zone will work for UL and they are not a great man to man defensive team. WVU took advantage of UL zone and I think Illinois has better shooters and athletes than WVU. BTW, Illinois also has an inside game with major height advantage, something WVU did not have! Thats pretty scary if you are backing UL. :scared
Sat. they played AZ and AZ has Salim Staudamire. Enough said.
Garica is super talented and def. creates mismatch for Illinois. You def. have that going in your favor!
EXCELLENT POINT! :clap:
Thats why I said I think UL has to shoot lights out to win. Most of the time, this team relies on great outside shooting. They might be able to get their shots off becaus of height advantage, but they still have to make their basket with defender right smack in front of them because we all know Illinois plays great perimeter defense. Couldn't having big guards also be a disadvantage? Wouldn't smaller quicker guards be able to dribble around the bigger guards? Thus creating foul trouble? I think it works both ways. The difference in this game is the big guys for Illinois and height advantage down low!
I agree.
I disagree.
Not gonna wish you good luck since I have Illinois to win it all, but you brought up some very good pts! Hell, I'll take 1-3pt Illinois win and we both are happy!
[B said:
Then I guess you don't handicap games. This site is about handicapping games. Therefore, you must make predictions on what you think will happen. Otherwise your betting blindly.
What someone thinks will happen is what determines if they wager on the game or not and how much $$$ they want to wager.
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LMAO. Like I said - Scott wanted his analysis just so he could write a datribe about why he is wrong.
Sun Tzu said:
What is your problem with me? I don't get it. LifeLongLoser asked for my opinion and appreciates it. He doesn't have to agree with me nor do I have to agree with him. I also enjoyed reading his take on the game. You may bet peoples picks blindly, but I like to gather information and hash it out. Whether it influences my decision or not is a mute point. Why don't you start contributing to the forum and give your analysis instead of harping on me interacting with other posters about a game.
