Heat-Spurs
The Miami Heat have been the bonafide championship favorites since the first day of the regular season, and their odds have only climbed as the playoffs have progressed. But, their play so far in this post-season has not been championship-like consistent. The Heat faced two non-opponents in the first two rounds, and then a Pacers team that was really good, and forced them to go seven games. But let?s compare the Pacers and the Spurs so far in this post-season in a few important areas:
Offensive Efficiency Rating: Spurs 2, Pacers 10
Defensive Rating: Spurs 1, Pacers 8
Turnover Ratio: Spurs 3, Pacers 15
Effective Field Goal Percentage: Spurs 2, Pacers 9
Assist Percentage : Spurs 1, Pacers 14
The Heat have a whole new level of competition in this round. The Pacers whole game is predicated on their defensive efficiency, and yet they are ranked well below the Spurs in this category. Taking a closer look at the Spurs, their great defensive qualities are seen in the line-ups they play, and their understanding of defensive schemes. Besides Mike Conley and Tony Allen, Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are the best back-court tandem in the league this season, posting a defensive rating of 95.5. They are the perfect defensive match-up against Wade and Lebron. They are younger and will certainly have a step on Wade. In fact, when they are on the court with Parker, Duncan, and Splitter, these five together posted the best defensive rating of any unit, holding opponents to three points less per possession than any other line-up in the league, a significant statistical edge. The Heat struggled against the length and height of the Pacers, and will face a similar problem with this match up, where the Spurs start the big physical Splitter and Duncan, and have hefty Diaw coming off the bench. The Spurs front-court helped them maintain the eighth best paint defense in the league, so similar to last series, the Heat may have problems scoring easily around the rim.
Moving on from the defensive exploits of the Spurs, the Heat have not faced a team as offensively talented as the Spurs yet this post-season. In fact, they have faced three fairly inept teams in this department. Their previous three opponents all ranked in the bottom twelve during the regular season in offensive efficiency, and now they will face a much more efficient Spurs team. Parker may be the key to this series, as he is so important in the Spur?s offensive sets. The Heat have no answer for him. Parker owned Tony Allen and Mike Conley in the last series, and if they cannot guard him, Chalmers and Cole will have big problems. If they choose to put Lebron on Parker, then the smaller guards will be matched up against taller longer wing players, and Popovich will exploit these matchups. Before Parker?s ankle injury during the regular season, he was in discussion for MVP, and he finally looks to be back to 100%, playing as well as he has all season. If he can maintain his high level of play throughout this series, and effectively score and distribute, the Spurs have a huge advantage.
The Heat managed to win their series against the Pacers in one way - Lebron CARRIED them. He was a one-man wrecking crew, and the rest of the Heat team struggled to play good consistently. Wade is playing hobbled and even Bosh turned an ankle in the last series. Bosh?s field goal percentage has dropped 8 points from the regular season to the post-season. The bench has not been very productive for the Heat, and one of their most important bench players in Battier did not even see the floor in the last game. They have not been playing good team basketball, and there has been some squabbling about roles due to their inconsistency. Miami has not faced a team nearly as good as the Spurs yet. If you compare the post-season play of these two teams, the Spurs have played much better as a whole team. This isn?t going to change in this series. Good team play is not a faucet you can turn off and on at will. Let?s not forget, if not for a huge defensive lapse by the Pacers in Game 1, the Heat may not even be in the finals. The team play of the Pacers almost took down the almighty Heat, and this isn?t going to get any easier for them.
At this point, rest does matter, especially for two teams that have been injury plagued and feature older rosters. In fact, there have been five finals match ups in NBA history between conference finalists that have swept opponents vs. teams that have won a series in seven games. Four out of five of these teams that swept opponents went on to win the championship.
Popovich is simply a coaching genius. He is so effective at inventing new offensive schemes to match up against the defensive strengths of his opponents. The Spurs have perfect personnel to execute these schemes. Their bigs are great screeners, and their misdirection on screens is confusing for defenders and creates offensive opportunities. The Spurs may not be flashy or fun, but they are solid. They play as a team. They have the best communication on offense and defense of any team. They are veteran and experienced. They have the best coach in the league. They have the best team basketball IQ. They create basketball art. This is their moment.
Prediction: Spurs in 6
