Nice game for Ginobili to pick to score his season high. Spoelstra on what went wrong: "Everything. Come on, they just absolutely outplayed us." No need to talk about how the Heat sucked, because they didn?t. They actually played pretty good. These are the best two teams in the world. The Spurs played awesome.
I said this during the Warriors series, but again - I think there is a misperception that this Spurs team is old and washed up. For some perspective - the average age on the Spur's starting line-up is younger than the Heat's starting line-up, and they are not even in the top five of the league's oldest teams, while the Heat are #2. The Heat have ten players over the age of 30, the Spurs have six. But, you never hear anyone talk about the Heat being "old". Who?s running on fumes? LeBron's first rebound came with 7:33 left in third quarter. Well, really I think at this point both teams are tired, but the Spurs may be pushing through it a bit better, with their depth and pacing.
History doesn?t determine what is going to happen in any given game, but it can certainly lend some insight to the pressure that the team trailing in a series faces. In NBA history, teams leading a series 3-2 are 141-111 SU in game 6 (56%), and 216-36 (85.7%) for the series. If they are visitors in game six, they are 59-32 SU (64.8%) and 68-23 for the series (74.7%). In the finals, teams leading a series 3-2 are 25-17 SU in game 6 (59.5%) and 35-7 for the series (83.3%). If they are the visiting team in game 6 in the finals, they are 10-6 SU (62.5%) and 11-5 for the series (68.8%). Although the sample size is very small, since the finals went to the 2-3-2 format, there have been eight times when the visiting team was leading 3-2, and they won 5 out of 8 of these contests in game six.
When the Spurs are leading a series 3-2, they are 8-1 SU (+9.7) and 6-3 ATS in close out games since the 2003 playoffs, including 6-0 SU (+13.0) on the road. Teams playing with a 3-2 series lead are 36-20 SU and 33-22 ATS and 23-31-1 O/U in game six over the last ten playoff seasons. As a road dog these teams are 19-16 SU and 20-15 ATS.
For Miami to win this series, they need to have over a 70% chance of winning both games, according to mathematical probability. That seems like fairly steep odds at this point, given each game outcome so far. The Spurs have now played in 27 Finals games and they still have never trailed in a finals series.
If the Spurs win this series, will Danny Green be the MVP? That might be the ?worst? MVP in finals history. Interesting to note, Green has scored 90 points so far in the finals, which is more points than he scored in the 2010-2011 season combined! His 25 three pointers is a finals record, and he is shooting 65.8% from downtown. Whoa, boy!
Pop with some poetical magic: "You just play Game 6. There's no magic to it. It's basketball. It's not that complicated. Both teams will compete their fannies off."
Playing home favorites coming off a loss is now 18-8 ATS this post-season. Home favorites coming off a loss are 14-3 SU and 7-7-3 ATS in finals games over the last ten seasons.
The Spurs put together a great game 6. Biggest takeaway from this game... the Heat looked frustrated. The mental will at this point might be the most important thing. Which team will come out with more determination in Game 6?
