Finals
- Thread starter Jord20
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Nice run bro but that is going to be one of the most public plays in recent history for a high profile game. There will be a MASSIVE amount of money on UConn at that number.
Lol. Still 6.5 at FD and DK
was actually 5.5 for a minute at FD, but UConn side was locked LOL.
i think Barkley at $500k on SDSU ML
- Nov 18, 2008
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Just want to pick your brain quickly on this. So public betting doesn't factor into your capping calculus or just not on this game? Any reason why? Also, is the game still 10* at 7.5?
Thanks for everything this season man.
'Public Betting' has become one of the more useless factors for wagering today than ever before. Talk to any professional bettor, and they will tell you this also. The models and numbers are so sophisticated nowadays that numbers are all set by power rating and get moved by sharp money only. That joe public stuff is fun to talk about and provides some narrative angles, but it pretty much all evens out to 50/50 (except not for the books and their ~4%holds haha).. Those big public perception games where the "obvious" team loses gets the panties wet of all the fade the public people that are 50/50 guys at best. The books will absolutely have a side on some of these games when they know the line is "right."
Like who cares if most of the public is on UConn tonight? What does that mean - and I'm not even sure that's true, all i keep anecdotally hearing is how everyone loves UCOnn, but "I'm fading that and betting SDSU." what could they do with the line!??! Make it 9?!? Then sharps come in and pound SDSU, and it goes right back to 7... so they make the line based on the right number knowing they will get pounded heavy by sharp money if their line is off.
Back in the day, the reverse line movement stuff, non-ranked favorite was good, but lines have been adjusted by several points since then and the juice has been more than sucked out of those. If you are still betting like its 2001, you will not be winning - I promise you that.
Anyway, super complicated topic really, but have to move on for now...
at 7.5, I'd probably be like 7x
First half -4 5x
Like who cares if most of the public is on UConn tonight? What does that mean - and I'm not even sure that's true, all i keep anecdotally hearing is how everyone loves UCOnn, but "I'm fading that and betting SDSU." what could they do with the line!??! Make it 9?!? Then sharps come in and pound SDSU, and it goes right back to 7... so they make the line based on the right number knowing they will get pounded heavy by sharp money if their line is off.
Back in the day, the reverse line movement stuff, non-ranked favorite was good, but lines have been adjusted by several points since then and the juice has been more than sucked out of those. If you are still betting like its 2001, you will not be winning - I promise you that.
Anyway, super complicated topic really, but have to move on for now...
at 7.5, I'd probably be like 7x
First half -4 5x
ok. That's why I said.... The books will absolutely have a side on some of these games when they know the line is "right."
Maybe this will be one, and maybe not... maybe big money got in at 6, 6.5, and now the books have more SDSU money at 7.5, and will come back to 7. DOn't know...
opcorn2 
- Sep 25, 2009
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Correct, I didn't comment on that - and I'm not sure if he means money or tickets.
Under 132.5 3x
- Nov 18, 2008
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Thanks for your time writing this up. So the book tries to set a line to draw comparable money to each side. They open at 6 and people quickly bet UCONN too lopsided so they adjust to 7.5 and then they start to draw money on SDSU. So yeah they might lose tonight if UCONN covers but they got enough cover at 7.5, so to speak. If they keep raising it they not only draw more money to SDSU but at some point you cross the rubicon and UCONN might win handily but not cover. Forgive the simplicity of this analysis but essentially if you think UCONN is going to win handily the fundamentals that led you to that choice do not change because the book's number moved. It could just lower the value, from 10* to 7* for example.
Thanks for your time. I was starting to waver because of the whole, "everyone is on UCONN" thing but now - Go Huskies!
On a big game like this, I take in 100s of data points. I break down film. I study trends. I consult astrologists. Then I just play what Jord plays.
- Mar 10, 2023
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Lol same here. Win or lose tonight thanks again for two fun seasons back to back foots and round ball. Great run!
- Sep 25, 2009
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