Fucking boom! Always appreciate you man so glad to see the good fortune you deserve. Thanks for sharing
Finals
- Thread starter Jord20
- Start date
Thanks boys - glad we were able to find some winners! Appreciate the kind words
unreal last few rounds - so many games, teams, numbers played out like i thought with respect to the teams i was higher than market and teams i was lower on.
Creighton was the one i wanted. That game sucked. Other than that… crush fest.
NBA, NHL, MLB now. Yuck. Only for the true grinders (sickos). Take it easy and pick your spots. Football will be back soon enough!!
unreal last few rounds - so many games, teams, numbers played out like i thought with respect to the teams i was higher than market and teams i was lower on.
Creighton was the one i wanted. That game sucked. Other than that… crush fest.
NBA, NHL, MLB now. Yuck. Only for the true grinders (sickos). Take it easy and pick your spots. Football will be back soon enough!!
This was fuxking hilarious (except when he plays the Flames should have been added hehe)
Jord- first, congrats on a helluva year. I don’t ‘follow’ anyone’s picks, but read your nba and ncaa picks on a daily basis. Loved when we were on the same side, even had the audacity to question you if I was on the opp side of a game, and you embody two great traits:
1. win with dignity, and
2. humility.
My dream as far as betting is to help others make $ like you do. You post the winners, and the flock trusts you. It takes a long time of being at the top of your game to be in your shoes.
I often wonder what your methodology is , I can’t even describe mine because it factors in so many data points, from line moves that are fishy, to overpriced spots, stats are a back seat but useful in some spots. But its just a feel for each game, the spot, where they are in their season / month / week, and who they’re running into and that team’s spot. It’s rarely the eye test or how good i “think” a team is anymore, when i started out stats and my opinion were 90% of my picks and I did not do well.
now its a lot of using live algos and their pricing shenanigans to feel out the right spot, and approaching it like trading derivatives which I’ve did for a living for over a decade.
i hope one day you enlighten us on how you approach games.
btw spot on with the “public fade” explanation. Different sites use info from different books, a book i won’t name will show 80% of bets & 75% money on 1 side then as soon as a game starts suddenly its 75% bets on 1 side 60% money on the other. It’s not consistent, reliable, and useful as a guiding indicator.
i saw one site with lopsided action on uconn in the miami and sdsu games, and another about 50/50. At the end of the day, you have to read the lines and see where the books WANT you to be, and avoid being on the wrong side at the worst price. That’s their goal - pile as much $ onto each side at unfavorable prices / positions, guys on DK playing daily fantasy aren’t moving spreads, certain teams will always have inflated prices because they can- books can favor kentucky or duke in a game they should be dogs in because ppl will pay the price regardless. Same with GS, ND football, dodger baseball, yanks, etc.
i could rant on this forever, but I do look for capitulation, the spot in game where money starts to chase. Example / hypothetical - ucla gonzaga, in game money was already on ucla from pregame, but was near 50/50 few min in. When the money got 75-80% on ucla late first half, i got the zags +7.5 or +7 in game - because of that capitulation. Ppl had given up on them and were chasing ucla at way too big a number, and that doesn’t always lead me to a live play, but if i already liked the side going in (had zags +2 or +1.5 pregame) its when i will add on.
anyway, i think you’ve been doing this so well for so long it’d take a book to truly explore everything you calculate on a side… to play live (one thing we have in common) you can’t be married to any outcome or number but adapt and take what the market gives you.
Will read on as you cap nba, do you bet mlb? It’s my fav sport even more than ncaa hoops, the live opps are incredible man. If you don’t, give it a try, im sure you’ll do well at anything you go after man.
thanks dude
1. win with dignity, and
2. humility.
My dream as far as betting is to help others make $ like you do. You post the winners, and the flock trusts you. It takes a long time of being at the top of your game to be in your shoes.
I often wonder what your methodology is , I can’t even describe mine because it factors in so many data points, from line moves that are fishy, to overpriced spots, stats are a back seat but useful in some spots. But its just a feel for each game, the spot, where they are in their season / month / week, and who they’re running into and that team’s spot. It’s rarely the eye test or how good i “think” a team is anymore, when i started out stats and my opinion were 90% of my picks and I did not do well.
now its a lot of using live algos and their pricing shenanigans to feel out the right spot, and approaching it like trading derivatives which I’ve did for a living for over a decade.
i hope one day you enlighten us on how you approach games.
btw spot on with the “public fade” explanation. Different sites use info from different books, a book i won’t name will show 80% of bets & 75% money on 1 side then as soon as a game starts suddenly its 75% bets on 1 side 60% money on the other. It’s not consistent, reliable, and useful as a guiding indicator.
i saw one site with lopsided action on uconn in the miami and sdsu games, and another about 50/50. At the end of the day, you have to read the lines and see where the books WANT you to be, and avoid being on the wrong side at the worst price. That’s their goal - pile as much $ onto each side at unfavorable prices / positions, guys on DK playing daily fantasy aren’t moving spreads, certain teams will always have inflated prices because they can- books can favor kentucky or duke in a game they should be dogs in because ppl will pay the price regardless. Same with GS, ND football, dodger baseball, yanks, etc.
i could rant on this forever, but I do look for capitulation, the spot in game where money starts to chase. Example / hypothetical - ucla gonzaga, in game money was already on ucla from pregame, but was near 50/50 few min in. When the money got 75-80% on ucla late first half, i got the zags +7.5 or +7 in game - because of that capitulation. Ppl had given up on them and were chasing ucla at way too big a number, and that doesn’t always lead me to a live play, but if i already liked the side going in (had zags +2 or +1.5 pregame) its when i will add on.
anyway, i think you’ve been doing this so well for so long it’d take a book to truly explore everything you calculate on a side… to play live (one thing we have in common) you can’t be married to any outcome or number but adapt and take what the market gives you.
Will read on as you cap nba, do you bet mlb? It’s my fav sport even more than ncaa hoops, the live opps are incredible man. If you don’t, give it a try, im sure you’ll do well at anything you go after man.
thanks dude
