First and Ten

lostinamerica

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11-8 in college yesterday to restore a little faith. But still needing to bounce back from 0-5 in the NFL last week.

Cleveland(-2) over New Orleans (1*)
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Green Bay(-5')(-115) over Chicago (1*)
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Buffalo(-2)(-115) over Kansas City (1*)
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Pittsburgh(+3)(+100) over Baltimore (1*)
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Indianapolis(+4)(-105) over New York Jets (1*)
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Denver(-2) over Atlanta (1*)
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GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Posting earlier than usual because I’m about to start on a roadtrip to Green Bay and Lambeau Field for the Packers and 49ers game.

Went to my first Packers game in December of 1983 in Chicago with the temperature at kickoff hovering below zero. Made my first trip to Lambeau Field in 1995. We used to have a fairly dependable source for tickets for one game most years from 2000 to 2015, but no more.

My last game at Lambeau was in September of 2015 when the Packers beat the Chiefs in a Monday night game. Our best three day road trip experience was for a Thursday night win at Lambeau against the Bears in September of 2012. But hands down my all-time favorite game experience was the final game at Milwaukee County Stadium in December of 1994, capped by Brett Favre diving into the end zone to beat Atlanta and keep the Packers Renaissance on track.

Posting earlier, capping not as thorough, and fewer plays.

Green Bay(-5) over San Francisco (1)
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San Francisco/Green Bay(Ov44') (1*)
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Chicago(+3)(-105) over Minnesota (1*)
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Tampa Bay(-6) over New York Giants (1*)
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GL
 
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lostinamerica

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2024 NFL YTD: 35-41 (-10.95*)
- - Fav: 27-28
- - Dog: 6-12
- - Totals: 2-1
- - In-game: 0-0
- - NFC North: 12-9


Dallas(-3)(-135) over New York Giants (1*)
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ODDS and ENDS:

(1) I was expecting Dallas would show some fight as a 10 point dog against Washington, and I think they will have a bounce in their collective step after fighting to the end for the win. They are not without some pieces and some leadership. Or not, not.

(2) I jumped at a chance last week to take on Tommy Cutlets taking over a sinking ship in New York. The fact I heard his play last week was not terrible is really a reason to dive in for more this week, IMO. If Drew Lock is in as QB, I am at least a little more wary of what he could bring to the Thanksgiving table.

(3) Dallas looks to end an historic run of embarrassment at home, and they will carry my cash from the start in this national spotlight.


GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Detroit(-9') over Chicago (1*)
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ODDS and ENDS:

(1) It is not insignificant that Dan Campbell and the Lions franchise has not won their Thanksgiving game since 2016.

(2) Last weekend I heard a radio interview with Julian Edelman discussing his 11-0 record with the Patriots in Thursday games. He said the focus of the prep for Thursday games is definitely rest and recover, and their success came from the fact they had a strong identity on offense, defense and special teams that they could count on to come to the fore on a consistent basis.

(3) The Bears get this short week off two excruciating divisional games.

(4) Whatever situational factors might suggest the Bears in some circumstances are trumped hard in my capping of this game by situational and motivational and fundamental aspects of the matchup that I see making it a pretty bad week for most any team to pay a Thanksgiving visit to Detroit. Maybe Chicago will be the right side because of a back door cover, but if Eberflus has Chicago going toe to toe matching Detroit for 60 minutes in this game, then butter my butt and call me a biscuit.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Los Angeles Rams(-3)(+100) over New Orleans (1*)
- - The clearly better team in a very favorable spot to show it.

Seattle(+1') over New York Jets (1*)
- - I’m pretty damn sure that for most of a decade under Pete Carroll, Seattle was the best in the league SU and ATS as a West Coast team playing in the early window on the East Coast, and they are 2-0 and 1-0-1 in that spot this year. I believe Seattle now has several key contributors back and have everything to play for in front of them . . . Two weeks ago I bet on the Colts locker room against the Jets locker room. Today I am betting on the Seattle locker room against the Jets locker room off a bye and a holiday.

Tennessee(+6) over Washington (1*)
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After really, really liking the Thanksgiving card as my best plays this week, I’m gonna stick with just a few plays I like best today, plus one more later.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Miami(-6') over New York Jets (1*)
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Tennessee(-3) over Jacksonville (1*)
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Tampa Bay(-6')(-115) over Las Vegas (1*)
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Buffalo(-3)(-130) over Los Angeles Rams (1*)
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Arizona(-3)(+100) over Seattle (1*)
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GL
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,226
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Buffalo(+2)(-105) over Detroit (1*)
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Denver(-4') over Indianapolis (1*)
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Green Bay(-2') over Seattle (1*)
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Los Angeles Chargers(-3) over Tampa Bay (1*)
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Pittsburgh(+5') over Philadelphia (1*)
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GL
 
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