Master TX...
It is a HUGE factor, espeically when a capper I respect has a big play on the game already, OR, there has been a huge movement on the game. I take that all into account.
I normally try and decipher what the "MAN" is wanting me to bet, and if I like the opposite, I go with it for sure. If I like what it appears HE wants me to play, I look further.
Normally, any play that involves a 10 pt or more difference from the closing line is an automatic play for me. EX... CHICAGO BULLS tonite were favored 8.5 - 10 but were down 20 at the HALF. I can play them +10 at HT, so that is a given. I mean, there was a reason CHI was favored by that much to start with, so some of that should show up in 2H of the game. NOBODY wants to lose huge at home, let alone on opening night.
Hope that helps! I of course look at the stats and when I can, what I see while watching. Tonight for instance, DET was killing PHILLY and I coudl see no way for SIXERS to hang, so I played DET despite them being up 12 and only favored by 8 in the game.
It always depends....
