Maddux Sports
10* Miami+1.5 - Already played,
10* Kentucky+14
10* Central Michigan-3.5
10* Temple+10
10* Texas State+4
10* Nebraska -17
10* South Alabama -13
added
189 old dominion +11
FERRINGO
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
3-Unit Play. Take #127 Akron (-1) over Ball State (2 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)
I think that Akron will rebound from last week's tough loss at Ohio with a road win here. Ball State is coming off one of the flukiest wins of the season. They benefitted from five Central Michigan turnovers and still needed a 55-yard field goal in the final seconds to win 32-29. It was a big upset in the MAC, but it was a total fluke. Ball State had lost its five previous games - including a loss to Indiana State - and there's nothing about this team that stands out at all. Akron remembers the 18-point beating they took at the hands of a much better Ball State squad last year. They will want to return the favor. Ball State has been outgained in its last six games - by an average of over 100 yards per game - and I think they get worked over here. Akron should get its starting quarterback back under center after missing last week's game with a concussion. That will make a huge difference in this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #129 Central Michigan (-5.5) over Buffalo (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)
There is no way that Central Michigan should've lost to Ball State last week. None. They turned the ball over five times and dug a big hole and they still nearly pulled that one out, losing 32-29 on a 55-yard field goal. That game was a killer letdown spot after a big win over Northern Illinois and I don't expect it to happen again. Central Michigan can't afford another league loss or they will be completely out of the picture. But they have a great chance to run the table and win these last four games. This team won at Purdue and won at NIU this year so I think they are capable of winning at Buffalo. The Bulls are coming off a tumultuous bye week. They fired their head coach out of nowhere and the offensive coordinator has taken over. The Bulls weren't that good to begin with and of their three wins just one has come against FBS competition. When a coach gets fired it has a ripple effect through an entire program. The assistants are starting to look at where their next job will be. The players start thinking about transferring. The fans tune out because they know this season is over. It is all downhill. Central Michigan is a much better and more stable program right now. They have won six of seven from the Bulls and have won seven straight against MAC East teams. The Chips should bounce back from last week's loss and I think they will kick Buffalo while the Bulls are down.
2-Unit Play. Take #132 Western Michigan (-10) over Ohio (2 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)
These are two teams going in opposite directions. Western Michigan has won back-to-back road games and now they are coming home. They have covered the spread in six straight games and the two outright losses of that group were a one-point OT loss to Toledo and an 18-point loss in Blacksburg. Ohio has lost two of three games and they are coming off a fluke win over Akron last week. That was an in-state rivalry game and the Bobcats, despite facing a backup quarterback, needed some late game magic to emerge with a win. Ohio got throttled 28-10 at Central Michigan in their last road game and this is just the team's second road tilt since Sept. 14. They have lost their last three road games by an average of over three touchdowns and I think Western Michigan can do the same thing. These two teams have played two commons opponents: Bowling Green and Idaho. Both teams beat Idaho by 12. But Western Michigan did that on the road while Ohio was at home. WMU also beat Bowling Green while Ohio lost by 18 to the Falcons. Western Michigan is hot. They have momentum. They are the better team and they are catching Ohio in a letdown spot. WMU has a solid home field edge and they have been better against similar opponents. There are just a lot of things pointing the way of the home team in this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #136 Central Florida (-7) over Temple (5 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)
Note: This play is from the KING System. I bet against Temple last week and they got rolled in Houston. I have no problem doing it again. The Owls just aren't very good. But that has been masked by playing one of the weakest schedules in the country. The Owls lost to the only two semi-competent teams they have faced this year, Navy and Houston, and I think they will struggle in a big way with Central Florida's veteran defense. The Knights are just so tough at home and this Temple team hasn't really proven that it can win on the road. Central Florida survived in a 39-36 win at Temple last year. They won't be taking the Owls lightly.
3-Unit Play. Take #153 Rutgers (+20) over Nebraska (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 25)
I just do not trust Nebraska. I know they are on a 5-0 ATS run. And maybe there is something different about this team versus the last few years. (Not having Taylor Martinez, who threw like a girl, definitely helps.) But Bo Pelini is just one of those guys that always seems to come up short at the times you least expect it. I honestly think that Nebraska could lose this game outright. I think the odds of that happening are greater than the odds of them winning by 30. Rutgers is an unfamiliar opponent to the Huskers. And while I know that goes both ways I think it benefits the underdog in this one. Rutgers was blitzed by Ohio State last week. But the Buckeyes had two weeks to prepare for that game. Rutgers has already outplayed Penn State and Michigan. And this is a proud team that will want to bounce right back after getting embarrassed in Columbus last week. I think they manage that. Nebraska has exactly zero impressive wins this year. I don't know that Rutgers would qualify as one either. But until I see Nebraska take care of their business in a spot like this I refuse to believe they can. Key trend: Nebraska is 16-34 ATS after a win by 20 or more points. I think they flop again.
2-Unit Play. Take #161 Memphis (-23) over SMU (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 25)
No bet against SMU is a bad bet right now. Memphis is much better than its 3-3 record suggests. But at this point they need to start stringing together some wins so they can get themselves to that bowl threshold. At this point it is easier to point out the gams that SMU has lost by less than 24 points (just one: vs. East Carolina) than it is to give reasons why they might hang around in this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #165 Alabama (-17) over Tennessee (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)
Note: This play is from the KING System.
Tennessee is definitely making progress and I like Butch Jones. But I don't like Justin Worley. He just misses too many throws and I can't trust an underdog if I don't think their quarterback can play. Worley has been awful against the last two good defenses (Ole Miss and UF) that he has faced. Alabama isn't nearly as good as their ranking suggests. They aren't one of the best five teams in the country so that makes them overrated. But they have dominated the Vols. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Knoxville and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and those last four games have been bloodbaths. The Tide looked awesome last week against A&M. Normally I want to bet against a team off that much of a dominating effort. But the fact that Tennessee looked so helpless against a team that was obviously more talented last week in Oxford makes me worry about how they will hold up against an equivalent (to Ole Miss) team this week. Alabama has won by 20 or more in six of the last seven meetings in this series and Nick Saban isn't going to hesitate to keep the pedal to the metal this week because he knows that for Alabama to stay in the Final Four discussion they need to not just win, but win big. I think the Vols will put up a fight. They have a very underrated, Top 20 defense. But they have given up 34+ points to the best teams they've played (Ole Miss, UGA, Oklahoma). And if Alabama gets into the 40's in this game then I don't think that Worley can keep up with an offense that has been held to 10 or less against three of the four "real" teams that Tennessee's played. In the end I see Alabama pulling away and winning and covering.
2-Unit Play. Take #171 Mississippi (-3.5) over LSU (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)
I know that Baton Rouge is where dreams go to die. But this is not the same caliber LSU team as we've seen the past few seasons. They are just too young and too raw and Les Miles is going to go through some growing pains with this group. Those growing pains will be similar to what Ole Miss has had to deal with the past few years while they waited for their highly rated recruits to mature. Well, now the Rebels are mature and right now they are a lot to handle. Ole Miss has one of the best defenses in the country. That is exactly what you need if you plan on going and getting a road upset. They also have a veteran quarterback: another prerequisite for leaving Baton Rouge with a win. The fact is that Mississippi State went into LSU and throttled the Tigers. I think that Ole Miss is every bit the team that Miss State is so the results should be similar here. Don't be fooled by LSU's Top 25 rating. Like most of the rankings in the SEC that is completely undeserved. Their last two wins have come against weak competition and the Tigers are fool's gold this weekend.
6-Unit Play. Take #180 Rice (-14) over North Texas (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 25)
Note: This is our Game of the Month.
The Mean Green are just a dumpster fire right now. We bet against them with Southern Miss last week and won easily. The fact that they could get rocked at home by Southern Miss - a really BAD Southern Miss team - despite being nearly a double-digit favorite just shows you were the Mean Green are at. And it is not good. It's not a good place for UNT these days. Rice has revenge in this game after a tough 28-16 loss on the road last year. The Owls outgained UNT by 100 yards but somehow lost by 12 thanks to a fumble recovery TD, a punt return TD, and three turnovers. The Mean Green has exactly two wins this year: Nicholls State and SMU. Neither of those teams is a legitimate FBS program so it is safe to say that North Texas hasn't beaten anyone. Rice has had two weeks to prepare and they have won their last three games by 20, 14 and 18 points. This team wants to get bowl eligible and they will be solely focused on this game against an opponent that beat them last year. This is the same Rice team that actually outgained Texas AM and played Notre Dame relatively close for almost a half (it was 14-10 in South Bend with 3 minutes to play in the first half).
3-Unit Play. Take #194 Kansas State (-9.5) over Texas (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 25)
Kansas State looks like it could be one of those teams that is off everyone's radar but that can come out of nowhere to get itself into the national title picture. Their lone loss this year is against Auburn, and K-State completely outplayed the Tigers in that game. They went on the road and beat Oklahoma last week and right now this team has to be riding a huge wave of emotion. Texas? Not so much. They have proven that they can fall apart at any time. This is only their second true road game of the season. And their first was at Kansas so that almost doesn't count. (It doesn't count.) Charlie Strong has not led this rag tag group of Longhorns into anywhere as difficult as Manhattan and K-State has been wrecking people at home this season. The Wildcats are on a 4-0 ATS run and no bet on a Bill Snyder team is a bad bet. Texas got rolled by Baylor and BYU and they barely beat Iowa State. K-State is better than all three of those teams and should get some revenge in this one.
3-Unit Play. Take #195 Ohio State (-14) over Penn State (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)
The Buckeyes are rolling. And Urban Meyer shows no mercy. Ohio State has found a quarterback and right now their offense is clicking on all cylinders. They could've beaten Rutgers by 70 last week if they had wanted to. This team is humming right now and they are going to roll through Happy Valley. Penn State just isn't very good. They had a couple real fortunate late game wins early in the season but they have come back down to earth as the season has worn on. That same Rutgers team that Ohio State just slapped had Penn State beaten until late back in early September. The Nittany Lions lost by 23 at home to shaky Northwestern and by five on the road against super-shaky Michigan. The Nittany Lions just aren't very good and if Ohio State gets up big early there is no way the Lions have the firepower to win a shootout. Ohio State should take care of business here.
2-Unit Play. Take #199 Nevada (-2.5) over Hawaii (11:59 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)
I just think that Hawaii should be catching at least a touchdown from just about every team it plays. Norm Chow is a confused old man and this team is a mess right now. The Warriors are thinking about disbanding their football program; that's how bad things are on the island. Nevada has played a brutal schedule so far this year and they have played a lot of really good teams - like Colorado State, Boise State and Arizona - very close. This team won at San Jose State and at BYU and they have one of the best quarterbacks in the conference. Nevada has thrashed Hawaii each of the past three seasons and I don't see why this would be different. I think in order for Hawaii to cover they would have to win this game outright. But their only wins have come against Northern Iowa and Wyoming this year. Those close losses to Washington and Oregon State are a long time ago. This team is unraveling and I see another failure in their near future.
1-Unit Play. Take #133 Boston College (-14) over Wake Forest (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)
1-Unit Play. Take #139 Georgia Tech (+3.5) over Pittsburgh (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)
1-Unit Play. Take #158 Arkansas (-26) over UAB (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 25)
1-Unit Play. Take #176 Utah (Pk) over USC (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)
1-Unit Play. Take #192 Oklahoma State (-1) over West Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 25)
BEN BURNS
SHOCKER - Texas
BREAKFAST CLUB - Virginia
PERSONAL FAVORITE - Oklahoma st
BEST BET - Tennessee
INDIAN COWBOY FYI he missed his last 7 unit huge last time.
7-Unit Play #118 Take Auburn -18over South Carolina (Saturday @ 7:30pm est)
We like Auburn to absolutely blowout South Carolina at home on Saturday Night. For starters, you have to like Auburn coming off a loss to Mississippi State in a game they admittedly should have performed much better. Coach Gus is one of the best there is on bounce-backs and obviously this team would have been significantly more focused coming into this game. Though this line seems atrociously disrespectful to South Carolina and would be used as motivation,take this into account. South Carolina's defense this year is in the top 50.They are not that stout defense of the Clowney defense, but a defense that has allowed 34 points to Vanderbilt and 52 to Texas A&M. They face an Auburn team that is every bit as good as A&M but even better on the offense and defensive end. Why is the line so high? Well, Auburn comes off a loss, they face a SC team that is top 35 in power rankings and given that Auburn has beat the likes of LSU who is top 20 in power rankings at home by 34 points, beat a Kansas State team who is top 10 in power rankings on the road by 6 points, it is truly impressive. If you want a benchmark for this game, take a look at the Arkansas game. Auburn beat Arkansas by 24 points earlier this year in the first game of the season and both teams are similar in power rankings and this is aclone of that game. Look for Auburn to win and win big because they need a sharp showing for the BCS committee to get back into the hunt as they are currently 6th overall. A beating of South Carolina would certainly look favorable as they will look to run up the score on an opponent that does have a win against Georgia on their resume which I'm sure has not gone passed the Auburn coaching staff
5-Unit Play #158 Take Arkansas-26 over UAB (Saturday @ 12pm est)
Normally we do not take such heavy favorites but the pressure is immense with Arkansas here. Note that this team has done well with blowouts this year against teams outside the top 100 and more importantly after losing 3 straight contests, the pressure in the SEC to win and to win big is beyond comparison. Such is the case here for a Razorback team that though has Mississippi State on the horizon, is a team that has to show up big here in order to get above .500.This is also a huge public play and normally we are against the public but sometimes the public wins. And in this case, with the Razorbacks looking for some mojo and the coaching staff looking for some breathing room from the Arkansas press, look for a possible blowout here. At the end of the day its notso much about the public fade as it is about the motivation factor. UAB played well against Mississippi State would be the counter argument but having said that, this UAB team is banged up both in the quarterback position and in the wide receiving core coming into this game. Plus, you have a UAB team outside the top 150 in defense as well facing an Arkansas team that is top 40 in defense and top 40 in offense as well. The Razorbacks only losses this year come to the likes of Auburn, A&M (a game they should have won), Alabama and Georgia - all teams within the top 20 in power rankings. They have beat teams in the top 100 by margins of 38 in Northern Illinois and 21 in Texas Tech a top70 team on the road. As they face a team outside the top 100 at home, its not that impossible to see them winning 4 touchdowns or more coming off 3 straight losses.
3-Unit Play #138 Take Virginia-6.5 over North Carolina (Saturday @ 12:30pm est)
Virginia has a great deal of revenge against North Carolina if you go back and track this game. This is a top 50 defense that can fare well against the potent North Carolina offense which comes off an emotional evening win against Georgia Tech and likely in for a let down here. The Virginia offense is ranked top 70 butmore importantly has been able to show some big wins at home such as against Louisville and Pittsburgh and its not impossible to see this team which is well coached on the defensive front do well against UNC's offense. UNC struggles against strong defenses such as their losses Va Tech and Clemson. Though UVA's defense is not as potent as these defenses, they are still very strong and note that UNC got crushed by UNC last year and Virginia comes off a loss to Duke on the road by a touchdown in a game that the odds makers expected them to do well and only placed them as a field goal underdog. Look for UVA to bounce-back in their typical fashion coming off a loss and with plenty of revenge against UNC who is in for a let down after the big win against Georgia Tech (small lean on Pitt to beat Ga Tech as well).
3-Unit Play #133 Take Boston College -14 over Wake Forrest (Saturday@ 3:30pm est)
This was nearly the 5* selection for us but we will roll with a 3-unit selection given how much motivation Arkansas has this weekend. But BC is significantly better in the power rankings here than Wake Forrest and we like the fact this is an afternoon game. Note that BC comes off a tough loss to Clemson at home by4 points and now this team is set as nearly a two touchdown favorite over Wake on the road. Boston College as known in all circles that follow football closely has a great coaching staff and is a team that is on the rise in the ACC. They showed that with a big win over USC Outright at home as a 17 point underdog on national television. Note that BC has played the 50th toughest schedule this year, held a potent Clemson offense to just 17 points, has a top25 defense and faces a Wake team outside the top 150 in offense (including division 2 schools with power rankings added) and if this team struggled to beat Syracuse losing by 23 points who is a top 60 team, then Boston College is almost like a mini cole of Syracuse but slightly better as a top 25offense and a top 50 overall team. We have Boston College likely winning this contest by 3 touchdowns Saturday afternoon.
3-Unit Play #121 Take Mississippi State -14 over Kentucky (Saturday @ 3:30pm est)
Though Mississippi State just got the number one ranking and the old adage is there never take a #1 team as soon as they became number 1, or the fact that Kentucky is coming off an ugly loss in Baton Rouge, it doesn't matter. At the end of the day, we trust Dan Mullen and he is acutely aware of all of this being the once offensive coordinator of the University of Florida and he is acutely aware of ESPN constantly barraging this team with the trap game mantra as they set up to face much tougher competition in the weeks to come. We like the fact that this is an afternoon game and we also like the fact that Kentucky struggles against strong defensive squads (and South Carolina does not count). Kentucky looked impotent against LSU's strong defensive line and Mississippi State has one of the most disciplined defenses there is. Note that State held Auburn to a meek 3touchdown performance essentially and that is phenomenal given how high octane that offense is - and even that was mainly due to field position in that contest as State took some chances. You can guarantee that State had a long message from Mullen about the importance of trap games and not to let this get to their head as this is only temporrary as soon as MSU loses, another team will be the new flavor of the day. We never believe focusing on the record gives you a good indicator on what a team is truly made of that is why we rely heavily on power rankings. This is a team that is outside the top 50 in defense and they face a defense that is a top 10 power ranking which is a clone of LSU's defense except only better. MSU's offense has been sound as well as a top15 offense overall and this is a team that beat A&M by 17 points who is atop 20 team in power rankings and now they face a team in the top 50 expecting to do the same. If you're worried about State being on the road, note that this team beat LSU by 5 points on the road Outright, the same team that took it to Kentucky by a wide margin at home. We'll lay the points here with MSU as we have them winning this contest by 21 points this afternoon on the road.
