FERRINGO (One of top NFL pay service cappers according to Sports Monitor - OKC)
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #251 Detroit (-3.5) over Atlanta (9:30 a.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
I feel like I am just hammering the dead horse here but Atlanta is not an NFL team. They have two really good players - Matt Ryan and Julio Jones (who is hurt) - and the rest of the roster is half-full of guys that probably shouldn't be on an NFL roster. Just look at their offensive line and linebackers. Honestly, those are practice squad guys. But its not like those two positions groups matter or anything. The Lions are banged up as well. But their defensive line should be able to tear through Atlanta's offensive line and really control this game. Also, Detroit's offensive coordinator used to be in New Orleans so he is used to scheming against this Atlanta defense. The Lions head to London with a lot of momentum. The Falcons come over here after four straight blowout losses. They're just going in different directions.
2-Unit Play. Take #260 Carolina (+5.5) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
I think that this is a great situation for the Panthers. Seattle is a train wreck right now. They have all kinds of issues and the fact of the matter is that they shouldn't be laying this kind of wood against anyone on the road right now. Hell, they couldn't beat St. Louis as this big of a favorite last week and the Rams were coming off a MNF loss. The Panthers have revenge for tough losses in each of the past two years. They took the Seahawks to the limit here last season and I see this game decided by a field goal either way. On top of everything else Seattle has to travel across the country for the dreaded 10 a.m. PST start. The Panthers are 10-4 ATS in conference games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. They are 11-5 ATS after failing to cover a spread and I think the Panthers hang around in this one.
3-Unit Play. Take #262 N.Y. Jets (-3) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
There are a lot of signs pointing toward the Jets this week. The first of which is the fact that a 1-6 team is favored over a 4-3 team. But it doesn't take much to see that these teams' records don't reflect the talent distribution. The Bills shouldn't have beaten the Lions and Vikings, two wins they scored in the final seconds. They should be 2-5. At best. The Jets really should've beaten the Patriots last Thursday and have had other opportunities (the Bears and Packers come to mind) for victories. So throw out the records. The Jets have a little juice after the Percy Harvin deal. And while I don't think he'll have a shred of impact on this game I think that the trade at least stoked a little flame in the locker room that this organization hasn't completely rolled over. The Jets have dominated this series, winning 7 of 10, and they have played one of the toughest schedules in football. They are due to break out on someone and I think it will be the fraud Bills.
2-Unit Play. Take #267 Baltimore (Pk) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
This is not the same Bengals team that won the division last year. Their offense is a mess. They are down three of their top four receivers from last year, including All-Pro A.J. Green. That changes the whole tenor of the offense. The defense isn't in much better shape. All three starting linebackers, Leon Hall, and a key defensive tackle are out. Michael Johnson's gone. Both offensive and defensive coordinator are gone. This just isn't the same team. And they are in a bit of a free fall right now. The Bengals are No. 31 in total defense and they got lit up each of the past two weeks. The Ravens are on the other side. They have been lighting people up, including coming through for a 7-Unit winner in a blowout win over Atlanta last week. They really played a B-game in that one and still won going away against a terrible, beat-up Falcons club. Cincinnati isn't terrible. But they are beat up. And the Ravens have revenge for a Week 1 home loss. I think Baltimore wins a close one here and keeps rolling.
2-Unit Play. Take #269 Philadelphia (+2.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
I love everything that the Cardinals are doing. But I just feel like Philadelphia is going to be fresh and fast coming out of their bye week. They beat the Cardinals at home last year and I think they'll get them again here. Philly's lone loss this year came at San Francisco. And even in that game the Eagles played poorly but had a chance to win on their last drive. Arizona is off a relatively easy win over Oakland last week and they have a marquee trip to Dallas next week. I don't think they are going to be looking past the Eagles. But let's just say that Philadelphia may be more focused on this game than the Cardinals are. The fact that the Cardinals aren't even installed as a token three-point home favorite tells me who the books think is the stronger team.
2-Unit Play. Take #271 Indianapolis (-3) over Pittsburgh (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
The Colts have just been absolutely wrecking people over the last month. They have won five straight and are outgaining opponents by over 200 yards per game. They smashed some decent teams like Cincinnati, Baltimore and Houston (that final wasn't indicative of the blowout that game was). And right now the Colts look like the second-best team in the AFC behind Denver. Also, this spread is right in Indy's wheelhouse. They are 12-4 ATS under Andrew Luck when the spread is betwene +2.5 and -3.0. So they are fantastic in that small dog/small favorite role. The Steelers did not impress me on Monday night. Were it not for one crucial play - a bumbled kickoff return by the Texans, which put that whole scoring explosion in motion - then the Steelers were going to get run at home last week. Antonio Brown and Leveon Bell are the truth. But beyond that there just isn't much on the Steelers that impresses me at all. The Colts will find a wya to get this win. It's just what they do.
2-Unit Play. Take #276 New Orleans (-1) over Green Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
1-Unit Play. Take #274 Cleveland (-7) over Oakland (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
This Week's Totals
Note: I generally don't do writeups on totals because these are based on proprietary systems.
5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 40.5 Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
I generally don't do writeups for my totals plays because they are based on proprietary systems. But the fact of the matter is that this play is very counterintuitive and I think that's what makes it strong. The Bills have gone 1-6 against the total this year and they are due for a high scoring output on one side of the ball or the other. Both teams have excessively high offensive yards per point and both offenses are capable of much more. Both teams have their defensive strength in the front seven and I think that will open things up down the field for some big plays. Also, history is on our side here. The 'over' is 4-1 over in the last five meetings and 6-2 in the last eight. Last year the two games had 47 points (27-20) and 51 points (37-14) against two very similar totals. The Bills offense isn't going to be the same on the road and the Jets offense has been slightly better at home. This game and the Miami-Jacksonville game are the only two NFL games this week where the public has staked a position on the 'under'. I see both games sailing 'over' and after an overall low-scoring week across the league last week I think we are going to see some bounce back scoring. That includes this game.
4-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 50.0 Chicago at New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 42.5 Miami at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 43.5 St. Louis at Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 43.5 Oakland at Cleveland (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 46.0 Baltimore at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 42.0 Minnesota at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.5 Houston at Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 56.0 Green Bay at New Orleans (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)
