Football Service Thread including Bowl Games 12/12/13 to 01/07/14

[WildBillPicks7]

Diamond Dog Sports

NFL Football
41 - 25 - 3 (+12.00u) 62.1%

2* Chargers +10.0 -105


KING CREOLE

2* Over 56 SD/DENVER

 

[WildBillPicks7]

ROBERT FERRINGO

SUNDAY FOOTBALL SELECTION

3-Unit Play. Take #313 Seattle (-7) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

2-Unit Play. Take #323 Philadelphia (-4.5) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

2-Unit Play. Take #305 Washington (+7) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

1-Unit Play. Take #307 San Francisco (-5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

1-Unit Play. Take #316 Cleveland (+1.5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

1-Unit Play. Take #310 Tennessee (+3) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

1-Unit Play. Take #325 N.Y. Jets (+11) over Carolina (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

1-Unit Play. Take #327 Kansas City (-4) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

This Week's Totals

7-Unit Play Take 'Over' 42.5 - Buffalo at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
Note: This is our NFL Total of the Year.
I know, this one seems a bit random. But when bad teams get together late in the year like this, chaos generally ensues. Look no further than Jacksonville's game at Cleveland two weeks ago, which was a scoring bonanza (32-28). I think that this one could be a similar result. Since its bye, the Jaguars have been a different team. They have been tough over the last five weeks, winning four games. They have also gone over the total in five of their last six games. Chad Henne isn't playing particularly well right now. But he's working the offense and proving to be a capable veteran hand. And the Jaguars are doing some nice things on that side of the ball. They have averaged a solid 23 points per game in their last five games and 30 points in their last two games. They are scoring. And I think that can continue. They are No. 31 in the NFL in yards per point at 18.4 YPP. That number is an outlier and should normalize a bit over the last three weeks. (The league average is around 15.5.) And to do that will require some games like last week when they posted a 10.4 YPP.

It's a similar story with the Bills. They should have gone 'over' the total last week in that game against Tampa Bay. They posted a YPP of 35.5, which is comical. E.J. Manuel was having problems with an expanded playbook so they are going to simplify things for him this week. And I think that the Bills will be a lot more focused and productive. Buffalo has been doing good work on that side of the ball, scoring a combined 68 points in their two games prior to last week's six-point dud. Further, the Bills have played one of the most difficult schedules, in terms of opposing defnees faced, of any team in the NFL this year. Just about every week they have been going up against a team ranked in the Top 10 or Top 12 in total or scoring defense. And they have handled themselves pretty well, scoring 20 or more points in seven of their last 11 games. And this week should feel like being let out of jail having to go up against a Jaguars defense yielding nearly 30 points per game.

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 45.5 - Houston at Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 50.5 - Philadelphia at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.5 - Arizona at Tennessee (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 49.5 - Washington at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.0 - Kansas City at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.0 - Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)

 

[carp]

ROBERT FERRINGO

SUNDAY FOOTBALL SELECTION

3-Unit Play. Take #313 Seattle (-7) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

2-Unit Play. Take #323 Philadelphia (-4.5) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Loss

2-Unit Play. Take #305 Washington (+7) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

1-Unit Play. Take #307 San Francisco (-5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

1-Unit Play. Take #316 Cleveland (+1.5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Loss

1-Unit Play. Take #310 Tennessee (+3) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Push

1-Unit Play. Take #325 N.Y. Jets (+11) over Carolina (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

1-Unit Play. Take #327 Kansas City (-4) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

This Week's Totals

7-Unit Play Take 'Over' 42.5 - Buffalo at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
Note: This is our NFL Total of the Year. Win

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 45.5 - Houston at Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 50.5 - Philadelphia at Minnesota Win

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.5 - Arizona at Tennessee (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 49.5 - Washington at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.0 - Kansas City at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.0 - Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Win

Thanks for posting Wildbill:

Sides: 5-2-1 +5 units
Totals: 7-0 +21 units
Overall: 12-2-1 +26 units

 

[WildBillPicks7]

ROBERT FERRINGO

SUNDAY FOOTBALL SELECTION

3-Unit Play. Take #313 Seattle (-7) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

2-Unit Play. Take #323 Philadelphia (-4.5) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Loss

2-Unit Play. Take #305 Washington (+7) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

1-Unit Play. Take #307 San Francisco (-5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

1-Unit Play. Take #316 Cleveland (+1.5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Loss

1-Unit Play. Take #310 Tennessee (+3) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Push

1-Unit Play. Take #325 N.Y. Jets (+11) over Carolina (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

1-Unit Play. Take #327 Kansas City (-4) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

This Week's Totals

7-Unit Play Take 'Over' 42.5 - Buffalo at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
Note: This is our NFL Total of the Year. Win

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 45.5 - Houston at Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 50.5 - Philadelphia at Minnesota Win

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.5 - Arizona at Tennessee (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 49.5 - Washington at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.0 - Kansas City at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15) Win

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.0 - Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Win

Thanks for posting Wildbill:

Sides: 5-2-1 +5 units
Totals: 7-0 +21 units
Overall: 12-2-1 +26 units

Looks like Rob had a great weekend!! He's done well this year in the Ultimate Handicapper Challenge.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Inside the stats

Best Trends and Numbers for pre-New Year's bowls
by Marc Lawrence

For the longest time College Bowl games played before New Year?s Day were deemed minor bowls. Those played from January 1st out were the main or major bowl games.

That all changed when the Go Daddy?s and other lesser, lightweight bowl games were created to fill a need for cable television broadcasting rights.

Hence, none of the bowl games on the docket prior to New Year?s Day are considered of the heavyweight variety. Instead they are largely populated by two classes of teams: those who suffered disturbing late losses and fell out of major bowl consideration, and those who scraped and clawed and earned a bowl bid thanks to a strong second-half effort.

Let take a look this year?s pre-New Year?s Day bowl card shapes up. All stats are from the 2013 PLAYBOOK Bowl Stat Report.

Conference Call

Like teams and coaches, conferences too develop bowl personalities.

Our database dug deep and found these noteworthy pre-New Year?s Day conference trends. All results are ATS dating back as far as 1980, unless noted otherwise.

ACC: 19-8 as dogs versus an opponent off a win (Miami Florida, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech).

Big 10: 12-3-1 off back-to-back losses (Michigan and Minnesota).

Big 12: 2-8 as dogs versus .750 or greater opponent (Texas and Texas Tech)

CUSA: 10-3 as dog 7 or more off a win (Rice)

MAC: 1-7 off loss of 8 or more points (Buffalo and Northern Illinois)

MWC: 1-6 versus .800 or greater opponent (Utah State)

PAC 12: 1-11 favorite 6 or more points versus opponent off a loss (Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon)

SEC: 1-8 as a favorite of 8 or more points (Texas A&M)

Second-Half Ups and Downs

The pre-New Year?s Day bowl team whose second half overall stats (from Game 7 out as opposed to the first six games of the season) improved the most was Middle Tennessee State, whose +108 net yards per game improvement tops the pack.

Nipping at the Blue Raiders? beak were Colorado State and Rice, each showing +83 net stat YPG improvement over the 2nd half of the season.

The pre-New Year?s Day bowl team whose overall team stats regressed the most from Game 7 out was Miami Florida, who slipped a whopping -130 net YPG during the 2nd half of the campaign.

Other teams going backward dramatically after the midway point included Texas Tech (-105) and Oregon (-101).

Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner

It?s important analyzing pre-New Year?s bowl contestants on a performance scale in games against teams that owned a winning record at the time of the meeting this season.

The best pre-New Year?s Day bowl teams from a straight up perspective this year were Fresno State (3-0) and Louisiana Lafayette (3-0).

On the opposite end of the SU ladder was Boise State (0-3).

When the money was on the line, this year?s pre-New Year?s Day best spread beater in games against winning opposition was Boston College (5-0).

And the only minor-bowl squad still looking for its first paycheck in games against a winning opponent this season is East Carolina (0-3).

Tale Of The Tape

Another interesting slant is weighing teams and their performance in games against other fellow bowl teams this season.

The best pre-New Year?s Day bowl spread beater against other bowl foes was Bowling Green (4-0).

The biggest pre-New Year?s Day bowl spread money loser was Texas Tech (0-5), followed closely by Pittsburgh (1-7-1).

In games ?In The Stats? (net overall yards versus opponent?s net overall yards), the biggest pre-New Year?s Day bowler Yards Per Game stat winners were: Cincinnati (+184), Bowling Green (+156) and Oregon (+111).

Pre-New Year?s Day bowlers that got trounced on the field, or the biggest Yards Per Game stat losers, were: Rutgers (-179), Buffalo (-171) and Ohio U (-166).

Pushovers

Speaking of stat performance this season, two bowl teams head into the postseason having been pushed all over the field to conclude the 2013 campaign.

We?re speaking primarily of teams who have lost the overall yardage stats in at least their last three games.

This year?s contingent of pushovers includes Arizona and Texas A&M, both of whom are laying points, making them ?leaking oil? favorites. Amazingly enough the Wildcats have been out-yarded in each of their last four contests.

Incidentally, last year?s bowl card featured two teams - Duke and Kansas State - that were outgained in each of their final four games of the season. They went 0-2 SUATS, losing by 14 and 18 points, respectively.

Are You Kidding Me

Notre Dame is 0-10 SU and ATS in bowl games when facing an opponent off a win.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Handicapping Bowl Season's Biggest Betting 'Totals'

Sky-high bowl totals are becoming the norm with the pass-heavy, all-offense evolution of college football.

Last season saw six bowl games with totals of 70 points or more, including a record-high 82-point total in the Holiday Bowl between Baylor and UCLA.

This bowl season, there are just two bowl games with Over/Unders at 70 points or more ? the Holiday Bowl between Arizona State and Texas Tech (70), and the Chick-fil-A Bowl featuring Texas A&M and Duke (72).

Since 1985, there have been 26 bowl totals of 70 points or more. Those games have gone a combined 15-11 O/U, including a 2-4 O/U record during last year?s bowl season. And bowl totals of 74 points and above are 8-4 O/U over the past 27 years.

Here are the 12 highest bowl totals since 1985:

82 ? Baylor 49, UCLA 26 (Dec. 27, 2012)
80 ? Baylor 67, Washington 56 (Dec. 29, 2011)
79 ? Arizona 49, Nevada 48 (Dec. 15, 2012)
78.5 ? Louisville 44, Boise State 40 (Dec. 31, 2004)
77.5 ? Tulsa 63, Bowling Green 7 (Jan. 6, 2008)
77 ? Hawaii 59, UAB 40 (Dec. 24, 2004)
75.5 ? Hawaii 54, Houston (Dec. 25, 2003)
75 ? Oregon 42, Oklahoma State 31 (Dec. 30, 2008)
74.5 ? Tulsa 62, Hawaii 35 (Dec. 24, 2010)
74 ? UCLA 50, Northwestern 38 (Dec. 30, 2005)
74 ? Oregon 45, Wisconsin 38 (Jan. 2, 2012)
74 ? Oregon 35, Kansas State 17 (Jan. 3, 2013)

 

[WildBillPicks7]

From Playbook

Bowl dogs who lost their last game are 17-4 ATS.

Teams that lost their last game and are dogs this bowl season -

San Diego St
ULL
Pitt
Cincy
Michigan
Ga Tech
BC
Duke
Oklahoma St
Clemson
Arkansas St

Going into their bowl game, Oregon St is favored over Boise St and are riding a 5 game losing streak.

GL!!

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Inside the Stats
by Marc Lawrence

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Down the stretch update

As we outlined in this space last week, the final four weeks of the NFL season is a race to the wire for teams in the playoff chase. It?s also the time teams out of contention put things on cruise control and start preparing for next season.

According to our database some coaches shine while others wine during the final four games down the stretch.

From an ATS standpoint, listed below are coaches in their best and worst roles throughout their NFL career and the situational role in which appear this week. All results are ATS (against the spread).

Best Roles:

John Fox, Denver ? 6-1 as a favorite of more than nine points

Leslie Frazier, Minnesota ? 5-0 away vs. non-division opponents

Ron Rivera, Carolina ? 3-0-1 as a favorite

Mike Shanahan, Washington ? 8-0 home vs. division foe off a loss

Worst Roles:

Dennis Allen, Oakland ? 0-2-1 off a double-digit loss

Jason Garrett, Dallas ? 1-6 vs. division opponents

Greg Schiano, Tampa Bay ? 1-3 vs. sub .500 opponents

Oil drip

Football teams who have been out-gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ?leaking oil? when installed as favorites.

This week?s ?leaking oil? favorites in the NFL are Baltimore, New York Jets and St. Louis.

By our count the Jets have been out -gained in each of their last seven games, the Rams in each of their last five, and the Ravens in three straight contests.

NFL tax collectors

In the highest-scoring week in NFL history, the average total points per game in the league was a whopping 52.8 last week.

The average game went Over by 6.3 points, adding to the 8.9 points two weeks ago. It was the second consecutive week in which NFL games averaged 52 or more points.

Be prepared to pay a tax on this week?s games, as the average total is at 46.9 point.

Meanwhile, the gift that keeps on giving has been Overs in non-conference games. With another outstanding 3-1 O/U effort last week, these non-conference totals are now 47-15 O/U this season.

With the final week of the schedule a matchup of all division games, the final two plays of the season kick off on Sunday. Those games are: Minnesota at Cincinnati and Pittsburgh at Green Bay.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

KING CREOLE

GOY: Chi/Philly - OVER 55.5
3* Denver/Houston - OVER 52.5
2* Miami/Buff - UNDER 43
2* Minny/Cincy - OVER 47.5

 

[WildBillPicks7]

From the College Bowl Stat Report:
Pre-New Year?s Day SEC bowlers
are 1-8 ATS as favorites
of 8 or more points.

SEC Favorites, Miss St, LSU, Georgia, Vandy, Ole Miss. LSU & Georgia were -9 favs.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

From the College Bowl Stat Report:
Pre-New Year?s Day SEC bowlers
are 1-8 ATS as favorites
of 8 or more points.

SEC Favorites, Miss St, LSU, Georgia, Vandy, Ole Miss. LSU & Georgia were -9 favs.

Georgia & LSU play New Year's Day!!

A&M -11 1/2 or -12, play New Year's Eve.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Prediction Machine

SIDES

219 SYR vs MINN 4.5 0.5 57.2% $51

222 WASH vs BYU -3 8.0 57.0% $48

218 MD vs MARSH 3 0.9 55.2% $30

Straight-Up Picks

222 WASH vs BYU 37.5 29.4 61.3%

218 MD vs MARSH 27.5 26.6 50.8%

220 MINN vs SYR 21.2 21.7 50.1%

Over/Under Picks

222 BYU vs. WASH 57.5 66.9 - Over 61.7% $98

218 MARSH vs. MD 63.5 54.2 - Under 61.3% $94

220 SYR vs. MINN 45.5 42.9 - Under 54.6% $23

 

[Senor Capper]

Billy Walters played WAS game Over. :0corn

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Billy Walters played WAS game Over. :0corn

you sure about BW playing Over? At what number? Opening number was 59, moved to 58, up to closing number of 65? UW opened -3, moved to -6.

My Vegas connection had these unconfirmed plays from BW's runners: Over CSU/Wash St @ 65, USC -5 1/2, East Carolina -12 1/2, Oregon St -2 1/2, Under 62 1/2 ECU/Ohio -

Rest of plays for Saturday, Cincy +3, L'ville -3, Michigan +3 1/2.

We shall see how those turn out.

GL!

 

[Senor Capper]

59

 

[WildBillPicks7]

59

Sounds like a play he'd do ahead of time. He also played Pitt +5 1/2 opening line, moved to +4.

:banghead:

 

[Senor Capper]

yup

and 4 is what we got it

 

[WildBillPicks7]

ATS Bowl LOCK OF YEAR is on Louisville.

Vegas rumored big plays (Billy Walters & Fuzzy Foreigner) L'ville -3, line moved to -6, Michigan +6 1/2, Over UNC/Cincy

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 17 of NFL football

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in its last six games versus divisional opponents, while the Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS against the AFC South.

- Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has completed just 57 percent of his passes with four TDs and three interceptions in three career games against Jacksonville.

- The New York Jets have dominated Miami ATS in recent years, going 12-3 in their last 15 meetings.

- The over is 18-6-2 in New York's previous 26 road games against teams with winning home records. The Dolphins are 4-3 in Miami.

- Detroit has been a final-month bust in recent years, going 1-7 ATS in its last eight December contests.

- Minnesota will likely be without running back Adrian Peterson for the season finale. With Toby Gerhart also on the sidelines, Matt Asiata will get the start. Asiata had 30 carries for 51 yards and three scores in Week 15 against Philadelphia.

- Houston has played to the Under in nine of its last 11 road games versus teams with losing home records. The Titans are 2-5 in Tennessee.

- Running back Chris Johnson is likely playing in his final game in a Titans uniform. Johnson averages 89.9 yards with three total touchdowns in 11 career games against the Texans.

- Cleveland has been one of the lower-scoring teams when it comes to season finales, playing to the Under in eight of its last 11 Week 17 encounters.

- The Under is 13-5 in Pittsburgh's last 18 home games, and 10-4 in the Steelers' previous 14 divisional games.

- Washington has been dreadful when it comes to beating the spread against weaker competition, going 14-30-3 ATS in its last 47 games against teams with losing records.

- Redskins WR Pierre Garcon has racked up 17 catches for 167 yards and a touchdown in his last two games against the Giants.

- The Bengals are one of only three NFL teams to go into the final week with an unbeaten home record - New Orleans and New England are the others - and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.

- Baltimore is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games in Cincinnati.

- The Panthers have traditionally been a solid bet in the closing weeks of the NFL season, going 39-19-2 ATS in their last 60 December games.

- The home team is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between Atlanta and Carolina - and so is the favorite.

- Green Bay will have quarterback Aaron Rodgers back from a collarbone injury for Sunday's pivotal Week 17 encounter with Chicago, in which the winner claims the NFC North title. Rodgers has thrown for 2,513 yards with 19 TDs and six interceptions in 11 career games versus the Bears.

- Chicago (-28) is the only current division leader with a negative point differential; the Packers (-16) would need to win by 16 or more points Sunday to avoid a similar fate.

- Buffalo has had trouble stringing together consecutive solid games, going 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 games following an ATS win and 7-21-1 ATS in its last 29 outings following a SU victory.

- Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has 53 touchdown passes in 23 career games versus the Bills - easily the highest total against any opponent.

- Tampa Bay has held tough on the road against tough opponents, going 18-6 ATS in its last 24 road games versus teams with winning home marks.

- The Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, and 4-0 in the last four encounters at New Orleans.

- The Broncos and Raiders share a strange ATS trend, with the road team going 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.

- The Over is 10-2-1 in Denver's previous 13 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The Broncos shelled Houston 37-13 in Week 16.

- Both the 49ers and Cardinals have been strong plays, with San Francisco 6-0 ATS in its last six road games and Arizona going 6-0 ATS in its previous six contests overall.

- Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer has fared reasonably well against the 49ers in his career, passing for 550 yards with three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions in two meetings.

- Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games but is expected to play its second and third-stringers for most of its season finale at San Diego. The Chiefs are already locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC.

- The Under is 9-1 in the Chargers' last 10 games versus conference opponents.

- St. Louis won't make things easy in its final game of the season in Seattle, having gone 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games versus teams with winning records.

- The Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings - and with both teams boasting impressive defenses, that trend could continue.

- Dallas and Philadelphia, which meet Sunday night for the NFC East title, have been two of the league's top teams when it comes to turnover differential. The Cowboys are tied for third at plus-11 on the season, with the Eagles right behind at plus-10.

- The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Philadelphia enters as a seven-point road fave.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

PLAYBOOK / VICTOR KING

'TOTALS' TIPSHEET

3* Jaguars @ Colts - ?UNDER?

2* Chiefs @ Chargers - ?UNDER?

2* SPEEDEE'S "UNDER" OF THE WEEK
Ravens @ Bengals