Football Service Thread including Bowl Games 12/12/13 to 01/07/14

WildBillPicks7

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Inside the stats: Let's go bowling
by Marc Lawrence
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Let?s take a look at what?s trending this New Year?s Day bowl card.

Bowling For Dollars

Here is a look at the most recent trends that have occurred inside each of the five major bowl games on tap New Year?s Day?

Heart Of Dallas Bowl: The favorite is 2-1 ATS and the OVER is 2-1 in this bowl game since its inception.

Capital One Bowl: The favorite is 4-1 ATS the last five years and 6-7 ATS the last twelve. All seven dog wins have been straight up.

Gator Bowl: The favorite has cashed each of the last three years, snapping a previous four year run by the dogs.

Orange Bowl: The favorite is 2-4 ATS the last six years, with the dog winning straight up four times.

Outback Bowl: Of the eight ATS dog wins six have been in straight up fashion.

Rose Bowl: PAC 10/12 teams are 7-1 SU and ATS the last eight games versus Big 10 opponents.


Conference Call: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Good numbers: ACC bowl teams as dogs off a SU loss (Clemson) are 18-5-1 ATS, with Boston College and Duke results from 12/31 pending? Big 10 bowl teams off a double-digit SU win (Iowa and Michigan State) are 10-3 ATS? Big 12 bowl favorites of 8 or more points (Baylor) are 5-1 ATS? PAC 12 bowl teams off back-to-back SU wins (Stanford) are 7-1 ATS.

Bad Numbers: SEC bowl favorites of 8 or more points who allowed 35 or more points in their last game (Georgia) are 1-5 ATS.

Ugly numbers: Big 10 bowl teams who allowed 35 or more points in their last games (Nebraska) are 2-11 ATS.


Coach Me Up

Iowa?s Kirk Ferentz is 6-2 ATS as a bowl dog, and 3-1 SUATS vs. SEC opponents.

LSU?s Les Miles is 4-1 SUATS In bowl games vs. .818 or less opponents.

Michigan State?s Mark Dantonio is 12-3 ATS away vs. an opponent off a SUATS win.

South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier is 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference opponents off a SU favorite loss.

Wisconsin?s Gary Andersen is 18-3-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents.


My Favorite Martian

Favorites on New Years Day bowl games have been out of this world in games dating back to 1990.

That?s confirmed by a 75-53 ATS overall mark.

The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more PPG on the season, where they zoom to 32-14 ATS.

Georgia and North Texas look to turn extraterrestrial this New Year?s Day.


New Resolution

In keeping with the tradition of making, then breaking, new promises for the New Year, let?s see whether UNLV maintains status quo today.

The Rebels are 10-15 SU and 16-6 ATS at home under head coach Bobby Hauck. They are 3-22 SU and 7-17 ATS away from Vegas.

Stat Of The Day

Central Florida is 0-4 SU but 4-0 ATS versus Big 12 opponents in its school history.

Mark Lawrence Bowl Game of Year is on Wisconsin


RICH SPORTS

CFB
7* GOY
- 256 Stanford -6
4* 254 LSU - un 49
4* 258 Baylor - ov 69
3* 251 Wisconsin - ML -125



Bryan Leonard, 30-16 CFB run, his GOY is on North Texas

Radio Jock:

Scott Ferrall (He's a paid service now? OMGF)

Bowl Games

NEBRASKA +9 ?

Georgia

Unlv
NORTH TEXAS -6

Wisconsin
SOUTH CAROLINA +2

Iowa
LSU -7 ?
 

WildBillPicks7

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PLAYBOOK NFL 2-MINUTE HANDICAP
Posted: 12/30/2013
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Playoff Trends Week 1
Saturday, January 4
Kansas City 3-11 SU / 2-12 ATS (0-7 L7)... 0-9 off ATS win... 0-7 off div... 0-3 L3 A... 1-10 Game One
INDIANAPOLIS Series: 3-0 SU / 3-0 ATS...11-14 SU / 12-13 ATS (0-3 L3)... 4-2 L6 H... 1-4 Game 17... 2-6 off div... defeated KC 23-8 at home in 2007

New Orleans 6-8 SU / 4-10 ATS (3-3 L6)... 0-5 A... 2-8 off SU win... 3-9 vs non div
PHILADELPHIA Series: 1-1 SU / 2-0 ATS... 0-2 L2 Game 17... 1-8 favs 5 < vs opp off SU win... 1-6 favs off SU div win... 2-8 favs 5 < (1-6 H)... 2-5 L7 H

Sunday, January 5
San Diego 9-11 SU / 8-11-1 ATS... 5-2 L7 RD's... 5-2 off div... 2-5 L7 Game One
CINCINNATI 5-1 off SU win vs opp w/ rev... 5-1 vs opp off SU win w/ rev... 4-1 vs non div opp w/ rev... 6-2 off SU win vs opp off SU win... 0-5 L5 post season... 0-4 L4 Game One... 1-4 off div opp

San Francisco 26-15 SU / 22-18-1 ATS (2-0 L2)... 0-2 A off div... 5-1 vs NFC North opp w/ rev... 9-4 L13 Game One... 1-3 A off SUATS div win
GREEN BAY Series: 4-2 SU / 4-1-1 ATS (2-0 H)... 6-1 off div vs opp off SUATS win... 5-1 off div vs opp off BB SU wins... 5-2 L7 post season... 7-3 w/ rev vs opp off SU win (2-0 H)... 9-4 off div game... 3-5 L8 Game One
 

WildBillPicks7

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Northcoast

5* Alabama -15


They rarely play 5 unit plays and I believe they are 1-3 on them this year or 1-2-1 including NFL 5* plays.

Their College Game of Year was on USC which failed to cover vs Utah St as a -6 or -7 pt fav, 17-14. Their total of year in Penn St game they weren't even close and it went into OT even.
 

WildBillPicks7

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Marc Lawrence

33-0 ATS Shocking Sugar Bowl Key Play!

Play On: Alabama (Game 260)
We recommend a 3-unit play on Alabama.
He lost his GOY on Wisconsin yesterday.
 

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NFL Wild Card Weekend trends

Home teams hitting at just 49.2 percent
by Marc Lawrence


Don?t look now but the 2013 NFL season is in the rear view mirror and with it the start of the Wild Card playoff games starting this Saturday. Let?s take a look at some of the best, and worst, trends surrounding this weekend?s card.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Here?s a brief capsule of the teams and noteworthy trends:

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-2.5, 46.5)
Good: Chiefs coach Andy Reid 3-0 ATS away non-division playoff dog
Bad: Reid 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS last five games vs. the Colts
Ugly: Colts 0-3 SU and ATS last three playoff games

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-2.5, 53)
Good: Saints QB Drew Brees is 4-2 SU and ATS career vs. Philadelphia
Bad: Saints 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS away this season, averaged 17.8 PPG
Ugly: Saints 0-5 SU and ATS all-time away in NFL playoffs

San Diego at Cincinnati (-7, 47)
Good: Bengals 4-0 SU and ATS off a win in this series
Bad: Chargers 2-9 ATS vs. AFC North last five years
Ugly: Bengals 0-5 SU and ATS last five playoff games

San Francisco at Green Bay (48, +2.5)
Good: Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Green Bay
Bad: Mike McCarthy is 5-8 SU and ATS as a home dog
Ugly: Super Bowl losers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS away Game One playoffs


Home Field Disadvantage

Home cooking used to be a solid handicapping edge during the playoffs. Not so anymore.

For the longest time backing home teams in the NFL postseason has been a solid-moneymaker, going 172-120-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved quicker than Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water on New Year?s morning.

A closer look finds home teams just 119-107-5 ATS (51.%) since the 1990 season and, even worse, 64-66-1 ATS (49.2%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.


Division Downers

Wild Card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 21-43-1 ATS ? including 1-7 ATS the last two years.

Send these highwaymen out as dogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-33 SU and 9-28 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Chargers this week.


ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.

Teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-25 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, including 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS if the Over/Under total in today?s game is set at more than 41 points.


So long 49ers.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 10 or points, going just 9-19-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

The Chiefs and the Saints could be up against it this weekend.


Stat of the Week

The straight-up winner in NFL opening round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980.
 
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