Ford Championship at Doral

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Davis Love to win 28/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Love has become a player to consider when the Tour moves into the Florida Swing. He skipped this event last year after playing in the final of the Accenture Matchplay Championship, but began his Florida Swing with a 2nd place finish in the Honda Classic in which he looked favourite to beat Todd Hamilton until the last hole. The previous season, he started with Florida Swing with a 12th place finish here and then finished 2nd and 1st in the next few weeks. So clearly he is able to manage the transition to Bermuda greens and with five finishes of 7th or better in his last ten starts and a couple of decent finishes behind him in the last month, he could certainly be a challenger here again.

K.J. Choi to win 66/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Paddy Power and Ladbrokes
Has been playing solidly recently with a number of high finishes, including a 3rd place position with one round to play in the FBR Open and only played one round in the Accenture Matchplay Championship last week so will be better prepared for this event than a lot of players. So having finished 5th in this event last year and having won in Florida in 2002, these looks fair odds.

Also have one more play lined up, but will wait until more place odds become available on Tuesday.

 

[Stanley]

Further outright play (1.5pts):

Tim Clark to finish in the top-five 14/1 @ Expekt
Had hoped for better place odds on Clark, but 14s is sufficient for a player who has shown great form this season already. He followed up a repeat win in the South Africa with finishes of 2nd and 4th in his next two PGA Tour events to show that he is more than capable of securing a top-5 finish this week. He did well on his debut here last year to be 6th after the first round, but coasted over the weekend after a poor 2nd round took him out of contention. The fact that he has played well on this course, albeit for just his opening round last year, is encouraging. It is also encouraging that he didn't spend too long in California last week so with finishes of 6th and 11th in his last two Florida outings last year, he should certainly feature again this week.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Was nice while it lasted--Last week was 1st losing week(5-7) in 2005 season in matches--almost made it to march.
Got one standout in 72 holes @ Oly
Choi -110 over Poulter
Excluding last weeks match play Choi has beaten Poulter 8 of last 9 with Poulter seeing weekend in less than half of events.

can't see going on any outrights just yet--odds generally do not change much in running for dogs against this field of top guns.

 

[Another Steve]

Doral Plays

Doral Plays

Had a decent last week, looking to keep it going.

Picked Davis last week going with Him this week. It doesn't hurt to see Stanley on him

Davis Love III WINS FORD DORAL+25.00 2 Units

That lead me to my first MatchUp. DLIII IMO is Playing well and Mikey will finish behind him so

Davis Love III OV/Mike Weir-1.25 2 Units

Tiger is the Chalk of the week and his odds show it. Just think he will be on his Game with Phily trailing him, but he has B2B wins.

Tiger Woods OV/Phil Mickelson-1.80 2 Units

GLTA, may be back for Another Play

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

@ Oly line has changed somewhat

Mar 1 10:43am Golf -
1. Golf - Ford Championship At Doral March 3 - 6, 2005
Offscreen Matchups
Scott Verplank vs Kevin Na
Scott Verplank (-130) [pending

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 2 more and that will be it

Tiger to finish 11th or better 1.72 @ SIA
Z Johnson -102 over Poulter @ Pinn

Woods in off year in 05 covered this in all but 5 of 21 attemps--that don't equate to 1.72 in my calculations

Lots of folks on Poulter because of match play--I'm not sold
With course condition detrimental to power hitters with rough not cut and pins set in all high areas on soft green increasing spin--I can't see how one could get good projection--I look for him to revert back to his 1 cut in 3 attemps in 05 mode.
Johnson on other hand is 6 for 6 in 05 and has torched him 7-1(excluding match play) in last events in common with Poulter making only 3 cuts in same.

 

[Agent 0659]

Doesnt Poulter have to be worn out? I havent figured it but he played a ton of holes last week. Also as a question to the board as Im just joining you guys this year, what is a unit for you?

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:


Jim Furyk(40/1) e.w @ 5dimes
- - Ian Poulter raved about Furyk's play after quickly dispatching him from the match play proceedings, for whatever that's worth in the calculus.

Davis Love(25/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - Not exactly MIA . . . things should click for a stretch . . . sooner rather than later.

Tim Clark(60/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
- - The smarting from a weekend off may very well sharpen a few of the angles in this profile.

Briny Baird(150/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
- - The change in scenery can't hurt.


GL

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Outrights (1u e.w.)

ZJohnson 100
SMaruyama 80
DLove 25

GL

 

[Whalers Rule]

Love 25-1 1 unit e.w
Allenby 66-1 1 unit e.w


1/4 unit to place only

Damron 125-1 g.g
Rose 50-1
Hamilton 50-1
Perks 125-1
Allan 100-1
Elkington 100-1
Jones 100-1
Mediate 40-1 5 dimes

 

[phar lap]

Round 1 18 hole spreads

1. Quigley/Chopra. 0 - 3 at SportingIndex.
Buy at 3 for 1 unit to be with Quigley.

2. Parry/ Taylor 2 - 5 at SportingIndex
Buy at 5 for 1 unit to be with Parry.

3. Hamilton / Faxon 0 - 3 at SPortingIndex.
Buy 1 unit at 3 to be with Hamilton.


Also had a 72 hole spread here.

1. Harrington /Furyk 0 - 1.5 at SportingIndex.
Sell at 0 for 3 units to be with Furyk.

 

[Agent 0659]

Outrights
Furyk 25/1000

Top 4
Furyk 10/100
Haas 10/200

72 Hole matches
Scott +105 vs Toms 50/53
LoveIII -105 vs Cink 105/100
Furyk EV vs Weir 100/100
Furyk -105 vs Verplank 105/100
Na EV vs Ogilvie 50/50

GL all

 

[phar lap]

Round 1 Results

1. Chopra beat Quigley by 3 strokes. Loss of 22 units.

2. Taylor beat Parry by 2 strokes. Loss of 21 units.

3. Hamilton beat Faxon by 1 strokes. Profit of 10 units.

Loss of 33 units on the day.

 

[Agent 0659]

Phar can you explain this bet to me please?

 

[phar lap]

They are 18 hole match bets done in the form of spread betting. The final result is made up of 10 points for the win and 3 points for every stroke they win by.

Fo example, in the Hamilton/Faxon matchup (notice I am using my only winner for the day), the market was 0/3. So you could have been with Hamilton at the cost of 3 points, or been on Faxon for zero cost. I had one unit on Hamilton at a cost of 3 points. The final result was a one stroke victory for Hamilton, which means the make-up result was 13 points (10 points for the win, and 3 points for the one stroke margin). It cost me 3 points to play so the net result was a 10 point win for me.

Its a very volatile form of betting, and I hesitate to compare my units to anyone else's on the board using other forms of betting. I would think that one unit in this form of betting is best compared to 0.1 of a unit in standard match-ups.

Thats probably not the clearest explanantion, but I hope it helps.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Phar Lap While I am not too savvy on this, the 18 hole and 72 hole wagers might be with in my abilty to comprehend
Agent here is full blown explaination by Phar Lap on Stans site--
http://tour-tips.com/Other/spreads.htm
When I 1st read didn't go very far as was too confusing--Hard for old dogs to learn new tricks--but since is post here it has got my interest up and I might look into to match bets--in particlular the 18 hole.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Been waiting to see if they resume props after last weeks absence but none up yet.
got a couple 2nd rd I'll venture out on.
Mayfair +140 over Casey @ 5dimes
Cink +100 over Furyk @ $plays

Someone laid to wood to get Casey up to -170? They are quite optomistic considering he never busted 74 in 2 previous events this year.Not that I am big fan of Mayfair but he has beaten Casey every rd in common the 2 previous tourneys by 19 strokes collectively.I'll take the #'s and +140

Been raining this morning and course should play tad longer--Cink already had 20 yd adv off tee yesterday and length is premium here.Cink playedwell yesterday till last hole where he hit 2 in water. His 2 under finish-quite deceiving.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Jose-Maria Olazabal(25/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) @ Bet365
- - Added to my Masters dance card at 100/1 e.w. as well, although I will likely prefer a play as Top European.

GL

 

[Agent 0659]

Thanks Phar Lap While I am not too savvy on this, the 18 hole and 72 hole wagers might be with in my abilty to comprehend
Agent here is full blown explaination by Phar Lap on Stans site--
http://tour-tips.com/Other/spreads.htm
When I 1st read didn't go very far as was too confusing--Hard for old dogs to learn new tricks--but since is post here it has got my interest up and I might look into to match bets--in particlular the 18 hole.

Wow thanks DTB and Phar. Gonna do some serious looking into this.

 

[Agent 0659]

:sadwave: