French Open: May 23rd to June 6th, Paris, France

[JCoverS]

Fellas,

Late posting on the French Open thread. Been super busy with other stuff. Like walleyek, I'm sitting on a small futures play on Samantha "Nice Guns" Stosur +2800 to win the French Open. Feel very good about her chances Saturday morning, but this is her first final and that can sometimes bring out the worst in a woman. She has opened a -410 fave over the Italian bird. Could be a good opportunity to hedge with a little on Schiavone. Thinking about playing 1/4 of what I would get back if Test-Stosur-one should finish this off as she should. Or shall I let it ride and continue to sweat this out? Would appreciate any thoughts from fellow MadJackers. Also have an even smaller Soderling future pending, so that should also be fun to watch play out with kick and Ghost also holding similar tickets. Wish mine was 100/1 like kick, but I waited until after his 2nd round win. Very small wagers here, but would love to win them just the same.

51718797-1 5/26/10 9:41pm $5.43 $179.19 Pending 5/27/10 5:00am Tennis ATP +3300 French Open - Robin Soderling

51540462-1 5/22/10 10:52pm $27.00 $756.00 Pending 5/23/10 6:00am Tennis WTA +2800 French Open - Samantha Stosur

-JC

 

[kickserv]

I don't think I have ever hedged in my life. There is a reason it is called gambling:SIB

 

[Ghost Kid]

I think Stosur rolls

 

[JCoverS]

Good point, kick...however, if I lay some on Schiavone it will cease to be gambling and become making money no matter the outcome. Still some time to think, but I appreciate your thoughts on the subject. I'm definitely going to wait and see if that line doesn't get longer on my girl Stosur.

BTW, you of all people should be able to appreciate Sam's sweet kick serve. I remember it baffling some women in the 2009 French Open and was the main reason I tossed some dough on her at the start of the tourney.

-JC

 

[kickserv]

yep.....gotta love a good kickserv

 

[WayneWonder]

Good point, kick...however, if I lay some on Schiavone it will cease to be gambling and become making money no matter the outcome. Still some time to think, but I appreciate your thoughts on the subject. I'm definitely going to wait and see if that line doesn't get longer on my girl Stosur.

BTW, you of all people should be able to appreciate Sam's sweet kick serve. I remember it baffling some women in the 2009 French Open and was the main reason I tossed some dough on her at the start of the tourney.

-JC

This is a great problem to have. I agree with the forum that Stosur rolls, but years of early retirements and w/d's in the women's game have left me somewhat jaded. Like somebody in here said, it is called gambling for a reason. Why not eliminate the risk? All it takes is an injury or Schiavonne playing the match of her life and you miss out on a nice payday.

I don't know about other people in this forum but $750.00 is a nice amount of money in my gambling life. Most of my wagers are $25-50 and I do this mostly for fun. It sounds as though you want to hedge and are just looking for somebody to validate your opinions. I think a wise move would be to place $100.00 on Schiavonne at the best price you can get. The only two books I use (The Greek +350) and (5dimes +335) have pretty nice odds but other books may be better. Shop around and if it is worth it, maybe open a new account somewhere to get a better price. Good luck in whatever you decide.

:toast:

 

[kickserv]

ummmmm.......unless you are Kimbo...750 bucks is a good amount of money to all of us:scared

My only point is this........."why bet on something if you don't think it will win"? Sure hedging may be "smart" but you made the selection in the first place for it to win:shrug:

Of course the smart thing would be to hedge, but this is after all a GAMBLING forum:142smilie


For me I would only hedge on a wager where one would receive like 30 grand if one team/player wins. It would suck to have a chance at 30K and get nothing. But hey as I said I make the selection so it can payout at full odds, not to "sqweek out a profit". Of course I have been known to not be the smartest guy at times:0065

 

[JCoverS]

Thanks a bunch for chiming in, Wayne. You are right, I am definitely inclined to hedge here. Always good to reach out for opinions of fellow MJ'ers, though. :yup

Anyway, I was thinking of throwing $150 on the Italian bird. It would ensure a profit of roughly $500-600 and seems very well worth it. Lucky to even have an opportunity to do so. When I made the wager, would have never guessed I'd be in this position. If "Big Guns Test-Stosur-one" were to make it to the finals (as she brilliantly has), I had to think at the time that she would still be an underdog in the matchup, which would make the hedge much more difficult (laying much more). Truth be told, this wager has already had lots of good fortune shine down on it and I would hate to see it all vanish with one poor effort from the Aussie. Still thinking, but close to 100% will be hedging. Thanks for the opinions.

Good Luck to All,

-JC

 

[THE_THONG]

Thank the Lord for Sam Stosur
can you imagine having to watch Jankovic and Schiavone in the final?
yikes.....not to be a shallow male....but damn....them two been smashed with the ugly stick

:mj07:

jankovic dont make me want to wank my yankostic

 

[THE_THONG]

"To be honest, she kind of has like almost the game of a man."
--Jelena Jankovic, on Thursday's lopsided defeat to Sam Stosur in the women's semifinals
:mj07:

Stosur replied, "To be honest, she kind of has like almost the face of a primitive man."

 

[Soko]

Always, always, always hedge. Gambling is nice but the objective is to not lose money. If you only win $100 then you have still made money. If you hold out just to "gamble" the you are an absolute idiot

 

[kickserv]

guess I am an idiot:tongue

 

[olddirtyfighter]

guess I am an idiot:tongue

Me too. I almost never hedge.
If you're sitting on good odds and nothing changed your opinion about the winner, why take a second bet with a bad odds.
Betting is about probability to win compared to offered odds.
Taking a bad odds is never a good bet.
If you for example take 100 bets and line moves in your favor 50 times and you hedge those bets, you're gonna lose money in long run.
Hedging is way to go only in case line moves so much that you think the value is now on the other side.

 

[MayorgaFan]

Everything always depends on the circumstances. I think hedging in the case of Stosur is fine. Who would have ever imagined she would be a 4-1 fav in the finals? You aren't hurting your profit much so there's nothing wrong with it in this case IMO.

 

[Ghost Kid]

Soderling wins in 5 sets !
:00hour

1 match to go
:toast:

 

[kickserv]

yep......one more to go:00hour

 

[tt boy]

Soderling +350 in the final.I might have to take a shot at that

 

[JCoverS]

Seems to have been some good discussion on hedging. I can see both sides of the issue...there is, afterall, no right or wrong and I'm certainly not inclined to call anybody an idiot for having their own reasons/opinions here. Clearly there are those who never hedge and those who always hedge when given the chance. I feel much like MayorgaFan in that it is all conditional, and under this condition I choose to hedge. The insurance was just too cheap for me to pass up this time. Had Stosur been an underdog I most likely would have let it ride, because I would have had to lay alot more $ and that would have cut into my payout far too much. This scenario I am perfectly happy to accept.

Locked in Schiavone +390 at The Greek for $140. So now I get to sit back, relax, and enjoy tomorrow morning's match knowing I win a nice sum regardless of who wins. :00hour

The "no hedge" option would look like this:

Stosur wins and I make $756
Schiavone wins and I lose $27

While, the hedge scenario I set up now looks like this:

Stosur wins and I make $616
Schiavone wins and I make $519

Seems the logical choice to me :shrug:

Good luck to all,

-JC

 

[kickserv]

Saturday Action


Parlay
----------------------------------------
Samantha Stosur
Daniel Nestor/Nenad Zimonjic

odds = $1.68 (-147) *2 units


Futures still alive...........

Robin Soderling to win French Open $106.00 (+10500) *half unit

Rafael Nadal does NOT win the French Open $3.10 (+210) *1 unit

Rafael Nadal loses a set in French Open $1.29 (-345) *4.5 units

 

[JCoverS]

For me I would only hedge on a wager where one would receive like 30 grand if one team/player wins. It would suck to have a chance at 30K and get nothing. :0065

Hey kick, I'm hoping your 0.5 unit wager on Soders to win the French at 105/1 was for $300. I want to see you follow your own advice and make your first ever hedge. :142smilie

BTW, great call on the Soderling future...I'll be rooting like heck for you to cash that baby on Sunday morning. If nothing else, you could at least use the Swede to take a set off Nadal so you can bank that bigger wager of yours.

-JC