French Open

[Anders]

French Open:

Three bases for picks for the next fortnight - clay court record, current form and clay court current form

Always room for an "upset" in this, the second of the season's Slams, with some good pickings around on the dogs by looking closely at the above indicators.
That's one of the reasons I'm leaving the hot title favourite out of the outrights, along with his short price. While Gustavo Kuerten is certainly a deserved favourite, he has some tough opponents along the way and I wouldn't be shocked if he got knocked out in the first round by the Argentinian comer Coria. Surprised, sure - but not shocked. Yevgeny Kafelnikov also looms as a latter round danger for Guga, who has a tremendous record on clay this year.
I'll take the better price on Ferrero and gamble a little on his groin injury situation. Hopefully his short break has allowed to him to reach full fitness again and with 3 ATP titles this year on the red dirt he's en fuego

My best pick to win the men's crown is Australian Lleyton Hewitt. From having virtually no clay court experience a few years ago, Hewitt has developed a fine game for the surface based on his receiving and retrieving strengths while producing more offensive armoury. A semifinalist in Hamburg this month, Hewitt beat Marat Safin on clay last week and has a Davis Cup clay win over Kuerten in his resume now too. A phenomenally driven player, I believe he now thinks he deserves and can win his first Slam title and is at a great price at some books.
Agassi has some tough matches ahead too, including the opening rd match-up v Johannson, but his Slam toughness means he can't be counted out. Along with Andre, I'll have a unit on some of the Spanish armada.
In the women's draw, defections have opened up the tournament with Seles, Davenport and Kournikova

all out.
Therefore, Hingis still represents reasonable value at 3-1 in this field which is much easier to negotiate than the men's draw and score her first French Open win. Amelie Mauresmo is also a great pick at 5-1 with 4 tournament wins this year and could see off Venus Williams in the quarters while my other fancies are Jelena Dokic and Elena Dementieva, who could drive her opponents mental

Will try and post daily plays if there's match-ups I like.
Really looking forward to this tournament and awaiting expert comments from Stan, Beast2, Boris et all..
Note: The advice to shop around for the best price musn't be ignored here - some of the differences you will get at various books are huge; eg Dementieva 17-1 at William Hill, 51-1 at DAS

Outrights:

Men:
Hewitt $13 (Ladbrokes) x 4 units
Ferrero $6.50 (DAS) x 3 units
Agassi $8 (Ladbrokes) x 3 units
Corretja $26 (Ladbrokes) x 1 unit
Moya $26 (Sportsbet Aus) x 1 unit
Portas $41 (Ladbrokes) x .5 unit

Women:
* Adding on June 2:
* Capriati $6 (Ladbrokes) x 3 units
Hingis $3.25 (Vic TAB) x 5 units
Mauresmo $5.50 (Vic TAB) x 3 units
Dokic $21 (DAS) x 1 unit
Dementieva $51 (DAS) x .5 unit

Opening day's plays:
Blanco $1.45 v Schuettler (2 units)
Gaudio $1.55 v Hrbaty (2 units)
Alami $1.70 v Sanguinetti (2 units)
Hipfl $2.90 v Safin (1 unit)

GLTA

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 06-02-2001).]

 

[Stanley]

Good luck Anders, however I don't think I will be adding much myself for this event. This week my website has become a golf and tennis site as Boris has come on board as the tennis guru

One great thing about these forums is that they allow us to specialise on the sports we know best as we can follow people far better than ourselves at other sports. Men's tennis is one of my favorite sports along with F1 and soccer, but if I can devote my time to golf (and the less time-consuming F1) and follow other sport specialists for the rest, I am much the wealthier for it

And for a great record in capping tennis, there's no matching Boris!

Congrats on a great rugby season! Bar Nolan, the best records here have been in the non-'Big 4' sports where being a specialist can lead to a big edge over the bookies

 

[Stanley]

P.S. Anders is absolutely right about shopping around. Tennis price differences can be huge and this is a great sport for scalping

Odds comparison sites:

Oddschecker - Outright prices; Euro books
Infobetting - Match prices; Euro books; Also displays head-to-head records
Tip-Ex - Match prices; larger # of books overed incl. some Caribbean

Olympic, Carib & Five Dimes also offer tennis match lines each week, but are not covered by the above comparison sites

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Anders:

Thx for the info/picks.

I'm riding w/ you on some of those To Win picks, and the following matchups (looks like I got a little better odds than you listed):
Blanco(-190 at Oly) {Schuettler's track record on clay looks pretty poor}
Alami(-130 at Carib)

GL, man. Enjoy the tournament.

 

[beast2]

Here are my first plays for the French Open. Sorry I couldn't post them earlier but my Internet connection is so slow at the moment each page is taking 5-10 minutes to load at the moment.

Outright Plays

Mens: Ferrero $5.00
Womens: Dokic $14.00

Day 1 Plays:
Men
Sanguinetti d Alami -105
Gambill d Pless -200
Diaz d Youhzny -133
Clement d Puerta +100
Pavel d Pioline +110
Popp d Chang +185
Novak d Di Pasquale -133

Womens
Pin d Razzano + 145
Krasnovotoskya d Tauziat +125
Kremer d Gagliadi -150
Irvin d Hopmans +130

A big 1st day with 11 plays. Hopefully a winning one.

Craig

 

[Anders]

1-1 in opening day plays; with Gaudio losing 8-6 in the 5th

but Alami doing the same over Sanguinetti

Two plays (Blanco, Hipfl) still outstanding.
A blow to the outrights in the women's with Mylesbo

a shock 1st-rd departure but that was compensated a little by Venus Williams bowing out too. Dokic and Dementieva cruised thru rd 1 while I guess Hingis will now be shorter odds still.
In the men's outrights, Hewitt survived a real battle with young French lion Mathieu to win in 4. Watched the first 3 sets and the junior French Open champ last year really pushed the Aussie and could have easily been up 2 sets and a break but lacked the composure/mental toughness on key points.
Ferrero

and Guga

also thru easily.

If you haven't checked out Boris' work at Stan's site yet; do so. Great info Boris, will be following things closely. May be back later today...

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 05-28-2001).]

 

[beast2]

Much better today with my Internet connection back to normal. An interesting first day but in the end I am happy for the small loss as at one stage I thought I could lose as many as 6 units. Mens Result were disappointing but the Womens were exceptional.


Day 1 results
Men:
Sanguinetti lost to Alami 7-6 1-6 7-6 4-6 1-6
Gambill lost to Pless 6-4 2-6 4-6 5-7
Diaz beat Youhnzy 3-6 7-6 6-1 6-1
Clement lost to Puerta 6-7 6-3 6-7 6-1 7-9
Pavel lost to Pioline 6-2 4-6 6-7 6-7
Popp lost to Chang 3-6 3-6 1-6
Novak beat Di Pasquale 1-6 6-7 6-4 6-0 6-4

Mens Result: 2-5 for -4 Units

Womens
Pin lost to Razzano 1-6 2-6
Krasnoroutskya beat Tauziat 6-1 6-3
Kremer beat Gagliadi 6-0 6-4
Irvin beat Hopmans 5-7 7-6 6-2

Womens: 3-1 for +2.55 Units

Overall Day 1: 5-6 for -1.45 Units

Back Later with Day 2 Plays

Craig

 

[beast2]

Hopefully a better day with the Mens picks.

Day 2 Plays:

Men
Medvedev d El-Aynaoui +110
Ferriera d Rios +150
Calatrava d Clavet -118
Hipfl d Safin +155
Meligeni d Kratchovil +120

Women
Tanasugarn d Gubasci -153
Kleiniva d Crybas -125
Weingarter d Lucic -118

Craig

 

[Anders]

Opening rd results:

2-2 (+1 unit); each play to risk/make a unit(s); will try and convert prices this time.

Nice selective picking Chuck for 2-0

Hingis, Agassi, Moya and Corretja all past the 1st rd in the outrights but Portas bowed out to Rusedski.

Back later today with hopefully more plays

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Anders. I don't know tennis for squat. But I'm following a handful of cappers and mixing it in w/ a little research of my own.

Man, the clay can really be the plague to some of these guys. Popp and Schuettler are below 30% on clay the L2 yrs.

Was really stunned that Portas lost to Rusedski. Go figure. Portas beats Ferrero the Machine to win a few weeks back, and gets bounced in the 1st round here.

I'll try to contribute any decent info I can on these matchups. Looking forward to an enjoyable tournament.

Anders, what are your favorite tennis books? Thx, man. GL.

 

[Anders]

I now officially have more books than bones in my body

- damn this tennis and golf Stanley

Rd 2 plays (men):

Harel Levy -120 over Karim Alami @ Sportingbet:
10-12 Levy was a quarter-finalist in Rome with wins over Sampras, Clavet and Kiefer; lost to Ferrero in Hamburg; 1st rd losses this season include games v Roddick, Ferrero, Gaudio and Vicente. Alami (4-11) hasn't got past a 2nd rd.

Thomas Enqvist -155 over Juan Acasuso @ Unibet:
Enqvist made the semis at Barcelona in April and had WTC wins over Balcells and Kiefer. Acasuso had a tremendous start to the year on clay in Argentina, beating Portas, Squillari, Gaudio before losing to Guga but has been up and down since v lesser lights. Will take the class and Slam experience here.

Sjeng Schalken +140 over Tim Henman @ Choice:
The q/f at Monte Carlo has been Henman's best on clay this year and he recently split with his long-time coach. Schalken had a slow start to the year (mostly on hardcourt) but made the q/f at Monte Carlo before losing to Guga in 3. Has since lost in rds 2 (Ulihrach in 3), 1 (Ferrero in 2) and 1 (Arazi in 3). Good price on this surface for the dog.

Alberto Martin -150 over Guillermo Canas @ Sportingbet:
Canas is 13-6 YTD and won Casablanca but v a relatively weak field. Beaten in 1st rd at Barcelona by Bruguera and 2nd rd at St Poelen by Tabara. Martin won Mallorca in a field full of top clay-courters, and made q/f at Monte Carlo and Hamburg. Leads h2h 2-1, winning last 2 encounters.

Andy Roddick -155 over Michael Chang @ Tipsport:
Yes, it's Roland Garros for Michael but the legs aren't what they used to be. Out early in recent tournaments v quality opposition -Guga and Squillari. But have to take the young lion with the hot streak.

Xavier Malisse -183 over Kristian Pless @ WSEX:
Malisse (17-9) lost to Roddick in the final on clay (US admittedly) at Atlanta and made q/f at St Poelten. Pless' 6-2 record has come from challenger events.

Playing:
Levy -120
Enqvist -155
Schalken +140
Martin -150
Roddick -155
Malisse -183

All to make/risk one unit

GLTA

 

[Stanley]

I know how you feel Anders

Just don't keep too much of your profits in one place for too long, it gets too easy to forget where your money is!

BTW, Boris did call the Rusedski win

Can't believe it myself, but apparently Greg has been camped out in Barcelona for the past two months with this event in mind. Sure paid off and he has the British press flabbergasted at this victory!

 

[Anders]

Having enough in one place to keep the a/c going is my main problem, Stan

Saw Boris' pick on big Greg; top call - looks like he aced the men's and got hit by a barrage on the women's. Damn hard work this tennis, what-ho

 

[1837]

Let's play these:

Alberto Martin -160 over canas 1 unit
Hrbaty -230 over rochus 2 units
Ulirach-130 over puerta 1 unit
Enqvist -170 over acasuso 1 unit
Pioline -165 over novak 1 unit
Lisnard +265 over robredo 1 unit

GLTA

 

[proline]

One of the most impressive facts about the Rusedski win was he was down 5-0 in 2nd set and bounced back for the win 7-5.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hey, guys:

Want to run a handicapping theory past you and ask if it holds water re: the French Open (or any major tennis tournament).

I'm trying to extrapolate from my NCAA hoops tourney knowledge. I know that in round 2 of that tournament, it is very much a "survive and advance" round in which the cream rises to the top. ie: these underdogs may pull off one win, but doing it twice is another story. In the NCAAs, normally the class wins out in the second round.

Any corollary here? eg: is Pless ready to get bounced? Adding further credence to a Malisse pick?

Thx for any comments.

 

[beast2]

Another losing day, this is completely unacceptable. Day 3 must see an improvement or I may have to take a couple of days off.

BTW, I was following the scores on the French Open site and the realtime scoreboard credited Tanasugarn winning the second set and the match over Gubasci. Going back today to get the scores for this write up I was stunned to see she had lost. So what was a bad day turned into an even worse day.

Day 2 Results:
Mens
Medvedev lost to El-Aynaoui 7-6 0-6 2-6 7-6 3-6
Ferriera lost to Rios 6-3 4-6 6-3 4-6 1-6
Calatrava beat Clavet 4-6 7-5 6-0 6-3
Hipfl lost to Safin 3-6 3-6 7-6 1-6
Meligeni beat Kratchovil 6-1 3-2 Retired

Mens : 2-3 for -0.8 Units

Womens
Tanasugarn lost to Gubasci 6-4 5-7 5-7
Kleinova lost to Crybas 6-4 1-6 5-7
Weingarter lost to Lucic 6-3 1-6 1-6

Womens : 0-3 for -3.96 Units

Day 2 Results: 2-6 for -4.76 Units
French Open to date: 7-12 for -6.21 Units

Craig

 

[beast2]

Day 3 Plays:
Mens
Novak d Pioline +140 Centrebet
Levy d Alami -125 Sydney SportsTAB
Ulihrach d Puerta -118 Syndey SportsTAB
Schalken d Henman +115 Sportodds
Lisnard d Robredo +275 Sportodds

Womens
Kruger d Dechy +120 Centrebet
Mandula d De Los Rios +110 Centrebet

Craig

 

[Anders]

One nice break, one bad one

Results:
Enqvist W 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5
Levy L 4-6 ret
Malisse W 4-0 ret
Schalken L 4-6, 2-6, 2-6
Martin L 2-6, 6-4, 2-6, 6-2, 4-6
Roddick leads 5-7, 6-3. 6-2, 2-3

Levy loss was hard to take, looked in a great spot while thought Malisse wouldn't have needed Pless' back injury. Such is gambling.
Will update units W/L when games completed.
Dementieva got bundled out of the outrights in the women's draw but Dokic had another easy win and with Mauresmo out the 21-1 I got looks very nice at this stage.
Ferrero thru and Hewitt on his way in the men's, although Guga in ominous form too.
Hope to be back later in the day if work

and other 'capping doesn't take all of my time

 

[Anders]

Completing:

Roddick W 5-7, 6-3, 6-4, 6-7, 7-5

Sounded like a real thriller, with Roddick virtually crawling over the finish line

Meets Hewitt in the next rd.

Results: 3-3; -.70 units
Tournament to date: 5-5; +.30 units

Chucky - hope you got an easy collect on Malisse

Probably other tennis experts here better qualified than me to answer your question.
As my alter-ego at Madjacks, I try to sound knowledgable and erudite, while deep down in real life I'm a - to quote TV hero Red from "That 70s Show" - 'Dumbass'!!