If I was a wise and conservative soul I would add another 2 units to my outrights on Justine Henin @ 8-1 at Olympic - well done Boris for getting her at 16-1
I realise I have all my women's aces in one half of the draw. It becomes a debate now about "value".
If I play Henin (or Clijsters??), I should get close to guaranteeing a place in the final, and with Hingis and Capriati still alive, the distinct prospect of getting both finalists and guaranteed win.
However, 2 units on Henin would make my profit margin on a winner smaller than it stands at present if Hingis or Capriati win. And is Henin a likely finalist. Certainly she's the best talent in her side of the last four, but you couldn't rule out Clijsters or Krasnoroutskaya. And while 8-1 sounds great; break it down a bit. She still needs to win 2 matches to make the final, and if she does, what odds would you give her to beat Hingis/Capriati/Williams in that final? 4-1?? 3-1?? Is there still value at 8-1 in the quarter finals??
The correct answer is probably yes, and others may tell me I'm a bozo for leaving her out. Have no problem with that. This is gambling and I'll take my chances to try and win a bit extra. Not my normal style, but what I'm sticking at for this tournament.
Will have a look at the men's outrights when that market re-opens but very happy to have four wagers still alive. One will definitely go in the quarters (JCF v Hewitt) while Kafelnikov now takes on my mantle of potential-Guga beater
GLTA
and happy
to see the delectable Jennifer Capriati still available at 6-1 so will place 3 units on her.
