Ted Servansky
TITLE: Friday Night Arena Parlay
REASON FOR PICK: Utah is the ultimate ?Over? team in the AFL this year, just like they were last year when they finished in the Top 5 in scoring and bottom five in points allowed. The Blaze defense has been horrible this year, giving up 66 and 63 points in their first two games, while allowing 18 touchdowns on 23 meaningful drives against them. But Utah?s offense looks just as potent as it did a year ago. Blaze quarterback Joe Germaine ranks among the league leaders in passing yards, completion percentage and touchdowns. Aaron Boone, Huey Whittaker and JJ McKelvey have helped the Blaze manage despite the loss of top notch receiver Siaha Burley in the offseason. Even the new kicker, Steve Azar, was perfect last week, nailing all seven of his extra point attempts.
Orlando, too, has all the makings of a serious ?Over? machine in 2008. Through two games, the Predators defense has allowed 16 touchdowns on 19 meaningful drives. They have zero interceptions, zero passes defenced and only one sack, suffering from terrible play both in the secondary and on the line of scrimmage. But the Orlando offense is clicking right now. QB Shane Stafford leads the league in passing yardage and completions. And the Predators are in desperation mode in their first home game following an 0-2 start. In fact, playoff teams from last year are 0-2 and can be expected to pull out all the stops with their offensive gameplan here. Expect a wild shootout between two teams in ?must win? situations, neither of whom can rely on their defense to get stops.
Take the Over. Current Line 117.5. Worth playing up to 121.
Bonus Side Opinion: Orlando is in no position to be laying a touchdown to anybody in the league right now. Head coach Jay Gruden seems to be on the verge of losing his team, making numerous bonehead clock management decisions and costing his team the game last week with an ill-advised two point conversion try at the end of regulation when an extra point would have sent the game into overtime. Utah is not going to stop scoring here, leaving the backdoor wide open late, if necessary. Bonus Side Opinion Take Utah. Current Line +5,worth playing down to +3.
Underdog Game of the Year
West Virginia at Georgetown Mar 14 2008 7:00PM
PICK: West Virginia
Your pick will be graded at: 3 Sportsbook
EXPERT: Ted Servansky
TITLE: Underdog Game of the Year
REASON FOR PICK: We backed West Virginia yesterday as they pulled the surprisingly easy upset over UConn. Expect more of the same when the Mountaineers face off against #1 seed Georgetown on Friday Night. We still haven?t seen anything resembling West Virginia?s ?A? game, despite their 2-0 mark in the tournament so far. On Wednesday, West Virginia survived and advanced despite a pretty lousy performance: 3 of 15 from three point range, 9 of 14 from the free throw line, 17 turnovers. Star perimeter shooter and second leading scorer Alex Rouff was only 2 for 8 from the floor, scoring only five points.
Yesterday?s win wasn?t all that much better:v5-17 from three point range, Ruoff hitting only one shot from the field, 16 turnovers, foul problems throughout. But Bob Huggins team played with such passion, such energy and such defensive intensity that the stats didn?t matter ? this team simply wanted it more. Opposing coach Jim Calhoun: ?Some games are very complex and you mull over them, why you won and why lost, it?s difficult. This one is very easy. They came out and kicked our butt.?
Playing in a venue where they?ve won 10 of their last 13 games in SU fashion, including a run to the NIT title last March, West Virginia has an enormous sense of confidence on this floor right now. Combine that with the unbelievable shooting run from junior forward Joe Alexander, who?s scored 32, 32, 29, 22 and 34 points in his last five games, and there?s no reason to think that West Virginia isn?t going to be this year?s Cinderella in the Big East Tournament.
Georgetown won the regular season Big East title, one hell of an accomplishment in this rugged league. And the Hoyas were unstoppable yesterday, having ?one of those days? from three point land, hitting a season high 17-27 from beyond the arc and 55% from the field overall, with 25 assists on their 28 made baskets. Quite frankly, that isn?t going to happen two days in a row, and it?s certainly not going to happen the way that West Virginia is playing defense right now.
The first meeting between these two teams was a true buzzer beater. West Virginia struggled from the free throw line, an uncharacteristic 52% from the line. Georgetown?s Jessie Sapp hit a three with six seconds left, then Patrick Ewing Jr blocked a controversial shot at the buzzer as Georgetown won by a single point. Bob Huggins went ballistic, arguing for a goaltending call: ?I?m not allowed to make a comment. I think it?s pretty obvious.? Let?s not forget that Alexander was limited with a bad groin in that game, forced to come off the bench, and making only two shots.
While the public goes nuts betting the Hoyas on the theory that they?ve never lost a Big East tournament game as a #1 seed (forgetting that the last FOUR times Georgetown was the #1 seed were in the 1980?s, with absolutely no relevance for this team this year), we can wait until the hour before tip-off and get an even better price on West Virginia as an underdog in a game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: (#561) Take West Virginia.
