Drew Gordon
1. 300,000♦ NY Knicks
2. 50,000♦ Pacers
3. 50,000♦ Rangers
1. NY Knicks- For as much (well-deserved) flak as the Knicks have caught this season, their recent play gives them tremendous value in this game for several reasons:
First, you've got to like their effort over their 3-game win streak, which includes impressive outright wins over Orlando and at Detroit! Not only that, but they've been a solid bet of late, covering 7 of their last 8 games, and playing like a team that actually cares about winning. Maybe they're trying to save Isiah's job, maybe they're using these final games to interview for GM Donnie Walsh and the new regime... Whatever the reason, the fact remains, the Knicks are playing solid basketball right now.
Second, I'm a firm believer that the guys in Vegas have caught on to the Hawks. In other words, because Atlanta has to win in order to hold onto the 8th and final playoff spot, we know they're motivated, but they also happen to be overvalued at this point. Despite the fact the Knicks are playing well, and Atlanta is absolute garbage on the road (11-28 SU & 16-23 ATS away), New York still finds itself a strong dog in this spot... Why? Because the public has locked onto these "must win to get into the playoffs" type teams, but sharp bettors know when to jump off, and that time is now.
Ironically, over their last 5 games, both of these teams have almost identical numbers, averaging about 106 ppg, while allowing about 106 ppg on the defensive end. Make no mistake, the Hawks aren't nearly as good on the road offensively, while the Knicks limited Orlando's high-octane offense to 90 points 5 days ago!
Finally, let's look over their match ups this season, as the Hawks have won all 3 SU, but its the Knicks who've grabbed the cash in 2 of those 3 contests. And you could easily argue that this is a much better version of the Knicks, playing team ball and relishing in their "spoiler" role. Look guys, the Hawks may still win this game, but if you've seen Atlanta play on the road this season, there's no question the Knicks grab the cash here, and possibly the outright upset.
Take the NY Knicks plus the points over the Hawks as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Pacers- I realize that I said in the above analysis that these kind of "must win to get into the playoffs" type teams are dangerous, but this case is different, and I'll explain why:
I said the guys in Vegas have caught onto the Hawks, because the public believes their playing "harder" to maintain their playoff position. Therefore, Atlanta finds itself a relatively strong road favorite tonight in New York, and for a team that's 16-23 ATS away, that's ridiculous.
However, in this case, Indiana is undervalued, as a relatively strong dog, playing for their playoff life tonight in Philly. Remember guys, the 76ers have already clinched a playoff spot, and are playing just for seeding, which isn't nearly as strong a motivator as the Pacers have (to just get into the playoffs).
Not only that, but Indiana has won and covered both meetings against the 76ers this season, including their last one, a 110-103 victory in Philly, without the services of Jermaine O'Neal. Couple in the fact that the Pacers are playing well, winners of 5 of their last 6 games, including a critical one against Atlanta in their last one, and this Indiana team has no excuse not to keep this game competitive tonight.
Finally, the biggest reason the Pacers have been winning can be summed up in one word: Defense. Over their last 5 games the Pacers are allowing just 94 ppg on 42% shooting! When you consider, on the season they allow 105 ppg on on 45% shooting, you see just how hard this Pacers team is playing right now.
Bottom line, look for Indiana to keep this game close behind their new-found love for defense, and the numbers back my claim: Pacers are 6-2 ATS over their last 8 match ups with Philly, and the underdog is a solid 13-6-1 ATS over their last 20 meetings! In the end, Pacers grab the cash at the Wachovia Center Friday night!
Take the Pacers plus the points over the 76ers in this NBA match up.
3. Rangers- Several things I like about the Rangers tonight, but let's start with the Blue Jays absolute futility in Arlington, where they've gone a pathetic 3-16 since the 2004 season! Few places have seen Toronto struggle as much the Rangers Ballpark, and they're in for another tough night in this one.
While I admit Jesse Litsch looked good against Boston Saturday, there's no doubt Vincent Padilla has looked better. He opened the season by crusing past the Mariners, allowing 1 run on 8 hits over 6 innings. And then followed that effort with his first win of the season, allowing 3 earned on 9 hits over 7 innings against a tough Angels offense!
Both of those efforts came on the road, which is a surprise considering Padilla's troubles on the highway last season... But one place he didn't struggle was in Arlington, where he went 4-3 with a solid 3.28 ERA. Not only that, but Padilla's career numbers against the Blue Jays are impressive, going 3-1 with 3.25 ERA in 4 starts. Little reason not to expect another quality start here tonight.
Biggest problem for the Blue Jays has been their bullpen, which despite posting a 2.76 ERA on the season, was at fault for all 3 Toronto losses in their series with Oakland this week. Both Accardo and League have been unimpressive to say the least, and even if Listch delivers a solid effort, one has to question the Jays with their bullpen suddenly struggling.
Bottom line, look for the Rangers and Padilla to add to the Blue Jays woes with another strong effort tonight in Arlington. Besides the fact Toronto has struggled at Rangers Ballpark, Padilla seemingly always brings his "A" game against them, and tonight will be no different. Rangers roll!
Take the Rangers behind Padilla over the Blue Jays and Litsch in this MLB match up
