FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS 4/11

[the duke]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

MLB

NATIONAL LEAGUE


San Diego (5-5) at L.A. Dodgers (4-5)
The Padres send ace right-hander and reigning Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy (2-0, 0.56 ERA) to the Dodger Stadium mound against fellow righty Brad Penny (1-1, 2.84) in a rematch of a showdown six days ago in San Diego. San Diego enters this series after losing two of three on the road to San Francisco. The Padres opened the set with an 8-4 win Monday, then lost 3-2 in 11 innings Tuesday and got blanked 1-0 Wednesday. Since getting off to 3-1 start, the Pads just 2-4 in their last six games, scoring five runs in the four defeats. Also, going back to last year, San Diego has dropped five of its last six on the road. Los Angeles returns home after getting in a three-game series at Arizona, getting outscored 23-11, including a tough 4-3 setback in Thursday?s finale. The Dodgers are 2-1 at home this year L.A. took two of three from the Padres last weekend at Petco Park, the only setback coming in Saturday?s 4-1 loss to Peavy. Going back to last year, the Dodgers are on a 4-1 run against San Diego. Peavy has been on the mound for each of San Diego?s last three wins against the Dodgers and five of the last seven. In fact, with Saturday?s dominating effort ? he hurled a complete-game, two-hit gem with one walk and eight strikeouts ? Peavy improved to 10-1 with a 2.21 ERA in 19 lifetime starts against L.A. San Diego has won 11 of Peavy?s last 12 starts against the Dodgers.
Peavy, who shut out Houston over seven innings in his season debut, is coming off a 19-6 campaign (2.54 ERA), which included an eye-popping 10-1 mark and 2.57 ERA in 15 starts on the highway. Penny, coming off a season-opening 5-0 home win over San Francisco, couldn?t match Peavy and the Padres in his second outing, allowing four runs on 10 hits in six innings. Penny is 3-7 with a 5.63 ERA in 15 starts against San Diego. In 2007, Penny nearly matched Peavy?s numbers, going 16-4 in 33 starts, including 8-2 with a 3.27 ERA at home. L.A. is on streaks of 21-10 on Fridays, 19-7 when Penny starts at Dodger Stadium and 4-1 with Penny throwing on five days rest. But the Dodgers are just 5-11 in their last 16 against right-handers and 14-38 in their last 52 as an underdog. The Pads are 8-2 in Peavy?s last 10 road outings and 14-4 in Peavy?s last 18 against a National League opponent. On the downside, they are 1-4 in their last five against righties and 1-5 in their last six roadies. The under is 4-1 in the Padres? last five overall and 9-2-1 in Peavy?s last 12 Friday starts, but the over is on a 6-0 tear with Peavy on the road, 8-2 for the Padres following an off day and 5-1 with Peavy throwing on five days rest. For Los Angeles, the over is on streaks of 11-2 in series openers, 4-1 after an off day, 6-0 on Friday and 5-1 with Penny going on five days rest. On the flip side, the under is 9-3 in Penny?s last 12 Friday outings and 8-3 in his last 11 against the NL West.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO



AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (5-5) at Boston (5-5)
The 2008 edition of this American League rivalry kicks off at Fenway Park, where the Yankees will pit right-hander Chien-Ming Wang (2-0, 1.38 ERA) against the World Series champion Red Sox and right-hander Clay Buchholz (0-1, 5.40). New York dropped the first two in its series at Kansas City, but behind a solid outing from Andy Pettitte, it salvaged Thursday?s finale, winning 6-1. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last seven series openers, but they are 15-5 in Wang?s last 20 road starts, 7-1 in Wang?s last eight outings on Friday and 8-2 when Wang starts Game 1 of a series. Boston finished off a three-game set against Detroit with Thursday?s 12-6 rout, taking two of three from the Tigers after getting swept in three games in Toronto last weekend. The Red Sox are 0-4 in their last four against right-handed starters and 0-4 in their last four against the American League East, but they are 6-1 in their last seven series openers and 56-25 in their last 81 as a home chalk.
The Yankees are on a 6-1 streak in this rivalry and won the season series last year 10-8, including four of the last six at Boston, although Wang got shelled in his last start there in September, a 10-1 Red Sox victory. The Yanks are 11-5 in the last 16 clashes at Fenway.
Wang, who opened the season with a 3-2 home victory over Toronto, tamed Tampa Bay in his last outing on Sunday, allowing four hits and two walks with six strikeouts in six innings as New York won 2-0. Wang was 19-7 with a 3.70 ERA last year, including 9-3 with a 4.91 ERA on the road. For his career, he?s an even 5-5 in 11 starts (12 appearances) against Boston with a 4.56 ERA. Buchholz struggled a bit in his first outing of 2008, allowing four runs on six hits in five innings in Saturday?s 10-2 loss at Toronto. Buchholz, a 23-year-old, broke into the majors in August last year, going 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in four appearances (three starts) for the Sox, including a no-hitter in his second big-league start.
When these teams have met lately at Fenway, the over has been a good bet, cashing in 21 of the last 26 clashes. For New York, the over is on runs of 24-8-3 as an underdog, 8-2 in series openers, 8-2-1 when Wang pitches on the road and 4-0 with Wang on the hill at Fenway. Also, the over is on streaks for Boston of 20-7-2 on Friday, 4-1-1 against the A.L. East and 6-2 as a favorite. However, the Yankees have stayed under the total in each of their last six overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW YORK and OVER

 

[the duke]

Wunderdog comps

NHL

Game: Philadelphia at Washington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Washington -150 (moneyline)
Teams don?t get any hotter than the Capitals. They grabbed the division title thanks to closing out the regular season with 11 wins out of their last 12 games. In their last four games, Washington won by a cumulative score of 14-3. Alex Ovechkin has been unstoppable. He led the league in points and goals and should take down the Hart. Martin Biron has been playing well, but Ovechkin is not to be denied right now. Washington is 21-11 vs. winning teams this season including 12-5 in their last 17 and we think they take down game one here with relative ease.



MLB

Game: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Cincinnati -106 (moneyline)
The change of scenery and an opportunity may be just what Edinson Volquez needed. The Reds parted company with Josh Hamilton to bring Volquez over from the Rangers, and it may give them yet another live, young arm with electric stuff. Volquez punched out eight hitters in 5.1 innings in his first start for the Reds, allowing just one run. Paul Maholm picked up right where he left off last season with a 5.02 ERA as he allowed five runs in five innings in his first start. Last year, opponents scored six runs or more in half of his starts and that isn't conducive to winning many games, especially on a bad team. The Reds appear to be a much improved team while the Pirates are making their usual march to the basement at 3-6. Reds win this one on the road.

 

[the duke]

Paul Leiner

10* Dbacks -145
5* Twins +125




North Coast

Northcoast Button#4
3* Kc Royals

Northcoast Button# 9
California Sports
4* Cavs

 

[the duke]

Paul Bovi

Vegas Insider/Panorama SportsLA Lakers/New Orleans OVER 212

Minnesota +12.5 visiting Orlando

The Lakers waxed the paper Clips last night...no Maggette, no Kaman, no Cassell...no contest as they emptied the bench on their in state rivals. Tonight they get New Orleans' finest who should be able to pierce that soft defense often enough to keep this one competitive and full of action. Look for a huge game by Kobe Bryant (40+ points) who should be inspired as he was outscored by Luke Walton last night. This one should be a dog fight. 117-116. Forget the side. GO OVER

Ho hum. The Magic are locked into the 3rd seed so these are just formalities as they go through the motions leading up to their opening round playoff series against an opponent TBD. The Wolves are still playing hard which makes the dozen points very appealing. Orlando did blow out the Bulls but they needed that one after getting whipped up on in the Garden. Chicago scored all of 13 in the 4th. The Wolves hang tight and come in under the frothy number.

 

[the duke]

Comps


Bobby Maxwell
3♦ PHOENIX SUNS -1

The Rockets struggled after their 22-game winning streak came to an end but they seem to have corrected a few things and have rattled off four straight wins and are looking to stay in contention for a top-four spot in the Western Conference playoff race. But the one team in the Western Conference they don't want to see is this Suns' team and they way they are playing right now, they could beat anybody - with ease. Phoenix is winning slugfests and winning defensive struggles. They went to Memphis on Tuesday and beat the Grizzlies 127-113 as 12 1/2-point road favorites and then went to San Antonio the next night and beat the spurs 96-79 as seven-point road 'dogs. The victory over the Spurs was impressive as they held San Antonio to 34-of-81 shooting from the field and won the rebounding war. Phoenix has won two of three against the Rockets this season and they are 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings with Houston and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 overall. Phoenix has size and speed while the Rockets bring no size to the table. Let's go ahead and play the Suns in this one to win it by 10. A big second half will put Houston away.


Big Al McMordie

TORONTO / TEXAS UNDER 10

30 year old righthander Vicente Padilla may finally be starting to come into his own after almost 10 years in the majors. This is Padilla's third year with the Texas Rangers after six seasons with the Phillies and he is off to his best start ever, giving up a total of only four earned runs in his first two starts covering thirteen innings. Despite the Rangers supposedly having one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league, Padilla had one of the most lopsided home-road records in 2007, going 4-3 with a 3.28 ERA in Arlington vs. 2-7 with an ERA over eight runs on the road. His first two starts of 2008 have been on the road so this bodes well for Padilla to have a breakout season. The Jays will counter with 23 year old Jesse Litsch, who has also pitched well early on this season and has been on fire in his last four starts, giving up more than one earned run only once during that span. The under is 26-11-2 in Toronto's last 39 road games and 9-2 in Litsch's last 11 road starts. The under is also 16-4 in Texas' last 20 games as a favorite and 22-6 in their last 26 home games. Take the 'under'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.


Alex Smart

HOUSTON ASTROS -1? RL

Roy Oswalt the Astros starting hurler here today has not looked great in first two outings this season, struggling with his vaunted breaking ball . He is just to big a talent to continue down, the road hes on now, and I expect he will turn things around tonight, against a Marlins team that he has dominated of late allowing them, just two runs in 12 1/3 innings of work last year for a stingy 1.43 ERA. Final notes & Key Trends: Astros are 22-4 in Oswalts last 26 home starts against a team with a winning record ,like the Marlins. Play on the Astros



Jake Timlin


BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Underdog of the night I look for the Orioles to steal one on the road in Tampa Bay. Sure the Rays have already beat the Orioles behind Shields this season for a 6-2 victory on the road, but due to the fact that Baltimore is playing way above preseason expectations I see a revenge win tonight for the O?s. You see for Baltimore despite the struggles in Texas they are still 6-3 on the season as the Orioles have been able to find early season success at the plate. Plus with Baltimore playing out of their asses to start the season getting any value out of them is going to come early. Flat out while the Orioles are going to fall off the map soon enough there is still a lot of value left in Baltimore as I feel they have a few more good wins in them before the completely fall back. Real simple at tonight?s price let?s take a shot on the Orioles plus a great return of money.



Ross Benjamin

ATLANTA / WASHINGTON UNDER 8?

Tim Hudson dominated the Nationals in 2007 going 4-0 with a 0.60 ERA in 4 team starts. In his career Hudson has posted an incredibly low 1.09 ERA in 8 starts. Hudson has seen his last 4 starts on the road all go under the total. Hudson has been very sharp in his 2 starts this season posting an excellent 0.69 WHIP. In 5 career starts versus Atlanta Matt Chico has posted a very good 2.70 ERA. Chico is 3-7-1 under the total in his last 11 starts as a home underdog. Play on under the total as my free selection of the day.




Tom Freese

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

New Orleans is 48-29 ATS in all games this year and they are 12-3 ATS vs. the Pacific Division. The Hornets are 13-4 ATS off a win by 15 or more points and they are 8-1 ATS as road dogs of 4.5 or less points. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS their last 7 home games vs. winning teams. The Lakers are 8-18 ATS at home with same season loss revenge and they are 2-8 ATS vs. teams that scored 100 or more points in in their last game.




Karl Garrett


3♦ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -4?

The Cavaliers need to prove they can handle this Chicago team that they made their massive trade with a little while back. Since the trade, the Bulls have been able to win and cover the last pair of series meetings! That should change tonight, as the Bulls have been eliminated from the playoff chase, and have little to play for. Cleveland still needs to win so they can secure home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, so expect the Cavaliers to bring their "A"-game tonight. The Bulls have lost 3 in a row, and 6 of their last 8 both straight up, and against the spread, while the Cavaliers are 21-18 against the spread on the road this year. Go with Cleveland to win and cover this one.



Sports Gambling Hotline


2♦ NEW ORLEANS HORNETS +3?

Overall, the Hornets have captured 4 of the last 6 meetings with the Lakers both SU, and ATS, and with New Orleans trying to lock down the #1 seed in the West, look for another inspired road effort from the Hornets. New Orleans is 23-13-2 against the spread on the road this year, while Los Angeles is just 2-6 against the spread their last 8 games, and 2-6 against the spread their last 8 when laying points. The matchups, and the against the spread trends look right for a play on New Orleans plus the points tonight at the Staples Center. Play on New Orleans.




Drew Gordon

3♦ LA LAKERS -3

Great spot for the Lakers, as they've got a lot riding on this game, and I expect they'll respond accordingly tonight at home. The Western Conference playoff standings have the Lakers sitting 1.5 games back from the Hornets and the top spot, and if ever there was a chance for Kobe and company to make up some ground it'll be tonight. Not only that, but the Hornets hold a 2-1 series lead this season, for as close as the West is, evening this series is critical for the Lakers. The last time these two teams faced off, the Hornets only saw 2 minutes and 33 seconds of Pau Gasol, who injured his ankle early in the contest. This time around, New Orleands gets a full dose of the talented Spaniard, along with Kobe and Odom, who've been playing excellent ball of late. Lakers have won 5 of their last 6 games SU, but struggled ATS of late, thanks to some bloated numbers, especially at home. Finally, we see some value in tonight's contest against the Hornets! Match up-wise the Lakers have the edge with Gasol in the lineup. We all know Kobe and Chris Paul will not be stopped, but its the secondary match ups - Odom versus Stojakovic (not athletic enough to stick with Odom) & Gasol versus Chandler, where the Lakers have the advantage. Not to mention, over their last 5 games, the Lakers have been playing better defense, allowing 96 ppg on 44% shooting, a improvement of 5 points from their season average! Bottom line, the Lakers have four strong factors in their favor tonight: playoff implications (seeding, evening the series), home court, revenge, and a match ups edge with Gasol in the lineup. Look for them to protect their house and grab the cash in this critical showdown tonight at Staples! Take the LA Lakers over New Orleans in late NBA action.


Marc Lawrence

ATLANTA BRAVES

The Braves take on the Nationals in Washington's new ballpark as they send Tim Hudson to the hill in a series in which Hudson has excelled. That's confirmed by the fact that Hudson is 6-2 with a 1.09 ERA in his career team starts against the Nats. One of those losses occurred here on March 30th when the Braves fell, 3-2, in their season opener to Washington. With Hudson sporting a 1.17 ERA as a visiting pitcher in this series, look for Hudson and the Braves to get their revenge here tonight.




Chip Chirimbes

ATLANTA HAWKS

The Atlanta Hawks, trying to hold on to a playoff spot, will face a couple of tough opponents down the stretch. A daunting schedule hasn't stopped the lowly New York Knicks from playing their best basketball of the season. With four games remaining in the regular season, the Hawks look to take advantage of a matchup with the Knicks when the teams meet Friday night. New York (23-56) has the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference and it's probably too late to save coach Isiah Thomas' job, but the team has matched a season high with three straight wins. Two of those victories were against division winners Detroit and Orlando. The Magic are one of four teams left on the Hawks' schedule, as is East-leading Boston. Atlanta (36-42) has a two-game lead over Indiana for the final playoff spot in the East, and both teams have four games remaining. The Hawks had a chance to secure the tiebreaker advantage over the Pacers on Tuesday night, but lost 112-98 to Indiana.



Mike Rose


Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox u11.0 (-110)
Fri Apr 11 '08 8:10p
The D-train made his debut for Detroit against the White Sox last Saturday. The lefty only went five innings giving up one hit and three earned runs, but walked a lofty seven batters, as his control was shaky throughout. He?s only made one career start at US Cellular, and had to depart the game in the second inning with arm problems.

Toeing the bump for Chicago will be Jose Contreras who?ll look to bounce back from his first start of the season against Detroit. The White Sox did win the game, but neither Contreras nor management can be happy with his results. He only lasted five innings giving up 10 hits and five runs (four earned) while walking four and only fanning a pair. This coming off a woeful 2007 campaign has White Sox nation nervous about Contreras? future. He?s 8-6 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in his career against the Detroit Tigers. Chicago lost two of his three starts against the Tigers last season.

The White sox are 5-2 SU their L/7 against a left-handed starter, and the Tigers are 2-5 SU their L/7 trips to US Cellular Field. The Tigers have also dropped their first six contests against the AL Central this season. The under is 4-1 in Contreras? L/5 starts with 6 days of rest, and the under is also a $$$-making 15-5 the L/20 times these teams have squared off in Chicago.


LT Profits

Ottawa Senators @ Pittsburgh Penguins u5.0 (115)
Fri Apr 11 '08 7:05p
The Pittsburgh Penguins are supposed to score goals, but it is their defense that smothered the Ottawa Senators 4-0 in Game 1, and that unit will determine just how deep this team goes in the playoffs.

In fact, the Penguins have now allowed two goals or less in seven consecutive games, so it is not as if that performance in the series opener came out of nowhere. They have gotten great goaltending from both Marc-Andre Fleury and backup Ty Conklin, who each have identically good save percentages of .923 this year. Not that surprisingly, the Under is 7-1 in the last eight Pittsburgh games overall.

The Senators were certainly frustrated in the opener, and that was illustrated by some chippy play in the third period. That contest marked the third time that the supposedly high-powered Sens were shut out in the last five games, and they scored just one goal in one other game. Sure they scored eight goals in the fifth contest, but that was vs. a dreadful Toronto Maple Leafs team.

We look for the Penguins to shut down Ottawa again tonight, and while we have no interest in laying the chalk with the Pittsburgh side, we do find the plus odds attached to the Under here quite attractive.

NHL Free Pick: Senators, Penguins Under 5 (+115)



Miami Heat +4.5 (-110)
Fri Apr 11 '08 7:35p
This contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Miami Heat reminds us a lot of the Heat?s last game, when the slumping Bulls were large road favorites over the ?D-League All-Stars? and Miami won outright.

Now, this may not look like a large line for most teams, but remember that this is a Grizzlies club that is 21-57 straight up overall including 7-31on the road. Memphis is getting outscored by an average of -8.0 points away from home, where their atrocious defense is allowing 105.9 points per game on 47.6 percent shooting from the floor, a poor trait you never want to see in a road favorite.

Yes, the Heat are a mess, but at least their players are giving it their all with this rare opportunity, and they showed against the Bulls that they are capable of beating the lesser teams in the NBA at home. Besides, it is not as if the entire Miami roster is comprised of developmental players, as they do have a couple of contributing league veterans like Ricky Davis and Mark Blount.

The bottom line here is we can?t trust a losing team with a terrible defense like the Grizzlies as a road favorite, so don?t be to shocked if the Heat do the unthinkable and win a second straight game.

NBA Free Pick: Heat +4.5



Jimmy The Moose

Game: Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons Apr 11 2008 8:00PM

Prediction: Washington Wizards

Reason: The Pistons don't have anything to play for while the Wizards are jockeying for playoff position. The Wizards are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. In their last 14 games as a road dog they are 11-3 ATS. Washington has won their last 3 games SU. The Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games while the Pistons are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Detroit is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast opponents. The Wizards are 3-1 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Wizards +.


Larry Ness

Game: Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons Apr 11 2008 8:00PM

Prediction: Washington Wizards

Reason: The Pistons have locked up the No. 2 seed in the East and I've seen no indication that they are in the least bit concerned with their record in comparison to any of the top teams in the West (in a possible look-ahead to homecourt advantage in the NBA Finals). Detroit's lost its last two games and in the team's Wednesday loss in Philly, saw six reserves get at least 15 minutes of playing time, while starters Tayshaun Prince, Antonio McDyess and Rasheed Wallace all played fewer than 30 minutes. Rip Hamilton has missed the team's last five games with a sore hip and while I'm sure he'd like to "get some work," his playing status is very uncertain. While the Pistons may be coasting, the Wizards are still battling for playoff positioning. They are currently No. 5 in the East but while they are just two games behind the Cavs (No. 4), they are also just two games ahead of No. 7 Toronto (one game ahead of No. 6 Philly). The good news for Washington is that its "Big Three," Arenas, Butler and Jamison, are now all back on the court. Arenas has played in three of the team's last four games, coming off the bench to average 14.3 PPG in 21.3 MPG. Jamison (21.5-10.2) and Butler (20.6-6.8-4.9) have carried the team all season but guard Stevenson (11.3) and center Haywood 910.8-7.2) have been solid all year. Five other players have averaged between 6.1 and 8.8 PPG this season, as the Wizards just could be a team to be reckoned with, now that the "Big Three" are back. It just seems to "make sense" to take the points with Washington in this one.


John Ryan

Game: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies Apr 11 2008 7:05PM

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 65-26 and has made 38.3 units since 2002. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after 4 or more consecutive wins and with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. Myers is not yet up to season form, but did look much better in his second start than his opening day start where his FB rarely hit 90 MPH. Cubs will certainly give him an opportunity to have a strong 6+ inning start as he is 5-2 when starting against the Cubs with an ERA of 2.56 and a WHIP of 0.949. Marquis has struggled against the Phillies and sports a 1.813 Career WHIP when facing the Phillies. Marquis is also 9-18 and losing 14.8 units when facing NL East opponents since 1997. Take the Phillies.



Ben Burns

Game: New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils Apr 11 2008 7:05PM

Prediction: under

Reason: The first game slipped above the number with five goals. However, the 'under' is still 11-5-4 the last 20 series meetings and this should prove to be another relatively low-scoring affair. The Devils have seen the 'under' go 19-9-4 the last 32 times they were traling in a playoff series. During that stretch, they've also seen the 'under' go 54-31-14 the past 99 times they were facing a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. Its also interesting to note that the 'under' is a profitable 14-2-1 when the Devils played on a Friday this season. Consider a play on the UNDER.



Robert Ross

Game: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies Apr 11 2008 7:05PM

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Reason: Cubs have won five straight after a three game sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Zambrano off a strong outing in his last. Phillies may again be without Jimmy Rollins (ankle). Take Chicago!

 

[the duke]

EZ WINNERS

MLB


5 STAR: (960) HOUSTON (-1.5)(+$115) over Florida
(Listing Oswalt and Nolasco)
(Risking $500 to win $575)
7:05PM Central Time


1 STAR: (969) OAKLAND (+$154) over Cleveland
(Listing Blanton and Sabathia)
(Risking $100 to win $154)
6:05PM Central Tim


1 STAR: (975) MINNESOTA (+$127) over Kansas City
(Listing Hernandez and Meche)
(Risking $100 to win $127)
7:10PM Central Time


1 STAR: (979) LA ANGELS (+$111) over Seattle
(Listing Weaver and Hernandez)
(Risking $100 to win $111)
9:10PM Central Time



NBA


5 STAR: (721) PORTLAND (+3) over Sacramento
(Risking $550 to win $500)
9:35PM Central Time

 

[the duke]

MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY

Junior - Yanks

Digger - Atlanta Hawks

Hawker - Pirates over

 

[the duke]

Comps


Nelly

Oakland (Blanton) + over Cleveland (Sabathia)

The A?s are 0-3 when Joe Blanton starts but he has not pitched poorly, with just seven runs allowed in nearly 20 innings. Blanton had 14 wins and a 3.95 ERA last season and he remains a very solid option for the A?s. C.C. Sabathia won the Cy Young last season but he struggled in the playoffs and has been hit hard in each of his two starts in 2008 with nine runs allowed in just over ten innings. Oakland has already won two games against left-handed starts this season and the A?s faced Sabathia less than a week ago. In this exact same pitching match-up early last season the A?s beat Cleveland 8-2. Cleveland is at home in this game but the Indians are facing long return travel after playing out West in last week. Cleveland went just 2-4 on the road trip and this looks like a team that will not be as strong away from home. Cleveland is hitting just .239 as a team so far this season and Oakland is an improved team with a realistic shot for contending for a playoff position.



Rocketman Sports

Phoenix @ Houston 8:35 PM EST
Play On: 3* Phoenix -2 1/2

Suns are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite. Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Southwest. Suns are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference. Suns are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite. Suns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Friday games. Suns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Suns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. Suns are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Suns are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Rockets are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Rockets are 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 games as a home underdog. Rockets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Rockets are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Suns are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Houston. Suns are 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Road team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. We'll play Phoenix for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky


David Chan

GAME: Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies Apr 11, 2008 7:05PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

Offered at: -101 Sportsbook
REASON FOR PICK: I see this as a letdown game for the Cubbies as they come in riding a five-game winning streak, with all five of those wins coming against divisional opponents.

The Phillies are trying to stem the tide after losing back-to-back games to the Mets, the most recent coming in extra innings last night. They'll face a tall task against Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano tonight, but I'm confident they'll rise to the occasion.

Philadelphia is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings overall between these two, and 6-3 at home dating back to the start of the 2005 season. I'm predicting a strong effort out of Phillies starter Brett Myers tonight after he was mediocre at best over his first two efforts of the year. He has lead his team to victory in each of his last three outings against the Cubbies.

The Phillies offense hasn't performed well over the last two games, but they do the unthinkable and knock around Carlos Zambrano tonight. On paper, it certainly would appear that the Cubs are the easy choice tonight, but as they say, that's why they play the game. Solid value on the Phils here. Best of luck, DC.


Matt Fargo

GAME: San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 11, 2008 10:40PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: San Diego Padres

Offered at: -102 Sportsbook
REASON FOR PICK: Jake Peavy got the best of Brad Penny yet again in their first duel this season and I expect more of the same tonight. The Dodgers are coming off getting swept at Arizona to start the week to drop to 4-5 on the season. Los Angeles is now hitting only .238 on the season including .220 against right-handed pitching which is obviously not a good sign heading into this one. The losing has been contagious dating back to last season as Los Angeles is 4-10 in its last 14 games following a loss.

San Diego lost two of three in San Francisco as the last two defeats were one-run losses. The offense was kept in check over those final two games which was surprising considering that the Padres have been kitting well. They are batting .282 on the season including .294 against right-handed pitching and should be in good shape to get that going once again. The Padres are 13-4 in their last 17 games against a team with a losing record and will be out for some revenge following the last series loss to the Dodgers.

Jake Peavy has left no doubt that last season?s Cy Young year was no fluke. He has jumped out to a 2-0 start while posting a 0.56 ERA and 0.56 WHIP. One of those wins came against the Dodgers already this season, a team he has owned throughout the years. Peavy is 10-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 19 career starts against Los Angeles and this includes a 2007 campaign where he went 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in five starts. The Padres are 11-1 in his last 12 starts against the Dodgers.

Brad Penny is also off to a solid start. He shutout the Giants in 6.2 innings in his first start but he allowed four runs on 10 hits in six innings against the Padres last time out. He has had trouble with San Diego in the past as he is 3-7 with a 5.63 ERA in 15 career starts against the Padres. He has allowed four runs or more four of his last five starts against San Diego. Overall, the Dodgers are 1-5 in Penny?s last six against San Diego as well as 1-5 in the last six when these two aces square off. Play San Diego Padres 1 Unit


Great Lakes Sports

NBA

Milwaukee at Boston 7:35PM EST Play on: Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics are an amazing 49-28 ATS this year including 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, and 21-12 ATS when playing in the second half of the NBA season. The Boston Celtics are also 39-24 ATS as a favorite this year. We look for the Boston Celtics to roll for the home ATS Win & cover tonight.


Stephen Nover

Seattle SuperSonics @ San Antonio Spurs Apr 11, 2008 8:30PM
SPORT: National Basketball Assoc.
PICK: under

Offered at: 184 betED
REASON FOR PICK: I'm not a parlay guy, but a 'dog and 'under' parlay sure makes sense here. The Spurs are laying a huge number despite their offense going in the tank. San Antonio has failed to break the 80-point barrer in their past three games.

Not helping matters for the Spurs is Manu Ginobili is out. The Spurs' second-leading scorer will miss this matchup with a groin injury. He's one of the few Spurs players who can create his own shots. The Sonics can now pay more attention to the Spurs' frontcourt without the threat of Ginobili's pentration and dish offs.

The Sonics are terrible on offense, too, scoring 84 points or less in all but one of their last five games. It's painful to try to watch them score, especially with Chris Wilcox out. Their front-court contributes nothing in the scoring column. If Kevin Durant isn't hot, they have little shot of breaking 85 points. The Spurs have the third-best defense in the NBA.

Yet the oddsmaker seems slow to adjust to Seattle's totals. The Sonics have gone 'under' in eight of their last 10. They should be good for a strong defensive effort here being coached by P.J. Carlesimo.

Carlesimo knows the Spurs well, having been Gregg Popovich's lead assistant for four years until taking the Seattle job this season. He'll have the Sonics prepared for San Antonio's pick-and-rolls

 

[the duke]

Bob Balfe

NBA Basketball
TWolves +12 over Magic


MLB
Cubs -110 over Phillies
Zambrano/Myers


Savannah Sports
YTD = 7-3 +3.75

3 Units on Arizona -143

 

[Scott Tissue]

ats basketball lock club

4units lakers
3units suns

ats hockey lock club

4units wash
3units minn

 

[Scott Tissue]

anyone have ats al lock of year today

 

[vacume]

Ness Legend Play

Ness Legend Play

Legend Playhil 76
GL
The Vac

 

[letswin]

Arthur Ralph's

Arthur Ralph's

Super Pick Arizona D'backs
900 Gold Key play Atlanta Braves
Free play San diego padres:00hour

 

[snakebill]

anyone have the ATS LOCK CLUB MLB LOCK OF THE MONTH THANKS IN ADVANCE

 

[Dr. T]

Ted Sevransky



Friday April 11th 2008

-- Arena Football --
7:00p Ted
Cleveland Gladiators r102
-2.5 / 4 units Cleveland has been a fairly easy team to handicap through the first six weeks of the season. The Gladiators have been strong at home, undefeated at ?Q? Arena. They?ve been strong against weaker opposition, averaging more than 60 points per game against sub .500 squads. The Gladiators haven?t been able to extend that level of success to quality foes, losing at New Orleans and at Dallas in their last two ballgames, prior to and directly after their bye week. But with a tremendous return game (Cleveland has been nothing short of spectacular when it comes to kick returns this season) and a quarterback (Raymond Philyaw ) in the midst of a stellar campaign, we can expect Cleveland to get right back on track against a lesser foe this week.

Colorado played their first good game of the season last week, at home, against a slumping Avengers team in the midst of a four game losing streak and playing without their starting quarterback. Other than that single performance, the Crush haven?t looked impressive against anybody, particularly on the road where they failed to score more than 40 points in a pair of ugly losses; their only two road games so far this season. The Crush won only three road games last year, unable to reach the key 50 point plateau in six of their eight road tilts. And with QB John Dutton continuing to struggle with key turnovers at inopportune times, posting a very modest 107 QB rating for the season, I wouldn?t expect this banged up Colorado squad to be able to trade touchdowns with the Gladiators for the full 60 minutes. Take Cleveland. Current Line: Cleveland -2.5, reduce wager size to .5 unit at -5.5 or higher.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Does anyone have his Saturday plays??

 

[Junky]

ATS LOCK BB


6 NYY
4 Cubs
4 Brewers

 

[the duke]

WAYNE ROOT

Chairman - LA Dodgers
Millionaire - Houston Rockets
Money Maker - Chicago Bulls
Insiders Circle - Texas Rangers

 

[the duke]

Rocketman

NBA
3* Atlanta
3* Minnesota
3* Milwaukee
3* Lakers
3* Phoenix



Billy Coleman

NBA:
5* Phoenix-3
3* Lakers-3.5

MLB:
4* San Diego
3* Detroit



California Sports

NBA
5* Spurs Under
4* Cavaliers
3* Toronto


MLB
4* Detroit over 10
3* NY Mets

 

[the duke]

BEN BURNS

NBA

MIAMI
Game: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat Game Time: 4/11/2008 7:30:00 PM Prediction: Miami Heat Reason: I'm taking the points with MIAMI. The Grizzlies have played better over the past six weeks and they're sure to be a popular pick with the betting public. However, they've cooled off somewhat in April and are 2-4 SU/ATS their last six games. With a 7-31 record (two of the wins came by four points or less) away from Memphis, I don't feel that they deserve to be laying this many points for a 'meaningless' road game, not even against the lowly Heat. Facing another team (Chicago) that wasn't going to make the playoffs I played on the Heat in their last game. They responded by winning outright as a double-digit underdog. It was a strong team effort and their hard work showed that they aren't just playing out the string, as some had accused them of doing. While the Bulls have a lot more talent than the Heat, the Grizzlies are a lot more of an even match. This is Miami's second last home game and offers the best opportunity for a win on the rest of the schedule. I expect them to build some momentum and confidence from the big win over the Bulls and follow it up with another strong effort. In addition to being a very poor road team overall, the Grizzlies are among the worst in the league defensively. In fact, the 106.8 points they allow per game (115 last five games!) ranks third worst in the league. The Nuggets and the Warriors are the only two teams which allow more points and both those teams back up their defensive deficiencies with high-powered offensive attacks, a luxury which Memphis doesn't enjoy. That's worth noting as the Heat have been at their best against poor defensive teams, going 12-6-2 ATS on the season against teams which allow 99 or more points per game. Despite an earlier loss at Memphis (failed to cover by a point) the Heat remain a healthy 4-1 ATS the last five series meetings. Look for them to improve on those stats this evening. *Best Bet

NHL

UNDER caps/flyers
Game: Philadelphia Flyers vs. Washington Capitals Game Time: 4/11/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Flyers and Capitals to finish UNDER the total. For a playoff game, I feel this total should be set at five and that getting 5.5 gives us excellent value. Both teams come in playing very well defensively and getting strong goaltending. The Capitals have allowed just three goals in their past four games, winning by scores of 3-0, 4-1, 4-1 and 3-1. All four games stayed below the total. Not to be outdone, the Flyers come off back to back shutout victories, knocking off the Devils by a score of 3-0 and then following it up with a 2-0 blanking of the Penguins. With the latter result, the UNDER improved to a perfect 5-0 on the season when the Flyers were coming off a shutout in their previous game. Including this year's two shutouts, a look back shows that the Flyers have seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 67-39-13 the past dozen years when playing in the month of April. During the same stretch, the Caps have also been very kind to 'under' bettors as they've seen the UNDER go 49-26-5 in their April games. Its also worth noting that the Caps have seen the UNDER go 16-4-1 on the season when coming off a win by two goals or more. Look for more of the same this evening.

WILD
Game: Colorado Avalanche vs. Minnesota Wild Game Time: 4/11/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Wild Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. The playoff tested Avs showed that they are not to be taken lightly be stealing Game 1 here. Considering how much better they've been at home all season (and for the past few) that makes tonight's game become a virtual "must win" for the Wild. I expect them to respond with a massive effort. Despite Wednesday's loss, the Wild, who had a 30-22 edge in shots in the opener, are still 6-1 their last seven games here. They're also still 5-1 the last six times they hosted the Avs. The Avs, who have now won three in a row, were 4-5 after three straight wins this season and a money-burning 14-16 (-6.5) their last 30 in that situation. Look for the Avs, who had the advantage of scoring first in Game 1, to find things much tougher tonight. The Wild are among the best at protecting a lead. Look for them to find a way to score first this evening and then to never relinquish the lead.

DEVILS
Game: New York Rangers vs. New Jersey Devils Game Time: 4/11/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: New Jersey Devils Reason: I'm laying the short price with NEW JERSEY. The Rangers dominated the season series and after they won Game 1 in convincing fashion, most people are already giving them the series. As they say on ESPN, "Not so fast, my friend..." While the Rangers may indeed find a way to win the series, I really don't expect the Devils to just hand it to them on a silver platter. Yes, the Rangers did 'dominate' the regular season series, in terms of wins and losses. However, the Devils won the final (and most important) of those games and every single one of them was extremely close. People have been writing off this New Jersey team for years, and many did so at the beginning of this season, yet they typically bounce back with a huge performance and/or season every time they do. The perception that that the Rangers are in for an 'easy' series has given us terrific value here. Behind a huge game from goalie Marty Brodeur, look for the desperate Devils to bounce back once again, dropping the Rangers to 3-12 the last 15 times they played on a Friday and sending the series to MSG all knotted up at 1-1.


MLB

TEXAS
Game: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers Game Time: 4/11/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Texas Rangers Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. Yes, the Rangers played a double-header yesterday. However, that was here at home, so at least there wasn't any traveling. Additionally, the fact that they won both games, their first two home victories of the season, should help to negate or at least lessen any feelings of fatigue. These teams enter the series going in opposite directions. While the Rangers are coming off a pair of wins yesterday, the Jays have now lost three games in the past three days. All three losses came in the late innings, making the trip to Texas significantly less pleasant than it might have been otherwise. Normally a good team at bouncing back from a single loss, the Jays don't typically fare nearly as well when they've managed to lose three in a row. In fact, they were just 13-17 (-4.7) the last two years, after having lost their previous three games. During that stretch, they were also a horrible 56-80 (-20.8) when playing on a grass field. Their numbers here at Arlington have been particularly brutal, as they've gone a terrible 3-16 their last 19 games here. The Rangers won the three games played here last season by a combined score of 21-8. Litsch gets the call for the Jays after winning his first start. Give him credit for beating the Red Sox in this season's only previous start. However, lets not get too carried away. For starters, the offense gave him 10 runs to work with, something that's unlikely to happen again today. Additionally, he only pitched five innings and he did give up two runs during that stretch. That's a fairly solid outing, but its still not overly spectacular. It should also be noted that Litsch pitched that game in the comforts of his home stadium and that it was played during the afternoon. That's worth mentioning as last season, Litsch was 3-3 with a excellent 3.04 ERA in his daytime starts while going 4-6 with a mediocre 4.38 ERA at night. While Litsch will have the advantage of facing the Rangers for the first time, Rangers Ballpark is generally no picnic for pitchers (especially Toronto ones!) and I expect him to learn that fact this evening. Padilla gets the call for the home team and he's off to a very strong start. In his first start, he held a solid Seattle club to just one run through six innings. Next time out, he beat a powerful Angels lineup, allowing three earned runs in seven innings. That gives him a 1-0 mark with a 2.77 ERA on the season. Now Padilla makes his first start at home, where he was much better last season, recording a highly respectable 3.28 ERA. Padilla has also fared very well vs. the Jays, going 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA for his career, most recently outpitching Roy Halladay here last May. Behind another solid effort from Padilla, look for the Rangers to build momentum from yesterday's sweep, continuing their home field dominance in this series and improving to 32-14 the last 46 times they played at home with a line ranging from +100 to -125. *Annihilator

TAMPA BAY
Game: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Game Time: 4/11/2008 7:10:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays Reason: I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. As of yesterday morning, the Orioles had gotten off to a great start and were red hot while the Rays were mired in the midst of a losing streak. Twenty-four hours can change a lot though and these teams are now 'heading in opposite directions.' The Rays snapped their losing skid in a big way yesterday (7-0 win!) and I feel that both the situation and the pitching matchup favors them again this evening. While Tampa played yesterday afternoon and didn't have any traveling, the Orioles played a late double-header and then had to travel from Texas afterwards. In other words, they didn't arrive here until fairly late. The travel situation wasn't made any more pleasant by the fact that they lost both games either. As Baltimore manager Dave Trembley lamented: "It's a long day. It's much longer when you lose." In addition to having had more rest, having homefield advantage and having the 'momentum' on their side, the Rays should also enjoy a pitching advantage. Guthrie and Shields faced each other at Baltimore last week on Opening Day. Guthrie gave up six runs and nine hits in 5 1/3 innings. That gives him an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.672 WHIP in four career starts against Tampa. Shields, on the other hand, tossed seven solid innings allowing just two runs and five hits. The Rays would go on to win the game by a score of 6-2. Including that result, Shields is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA (1.250 WHIP) in eight career starts against the Orioles, allowing one earned run through seven innings the last time he faced them here at home. Yes, at first glance, the current price seems expensive for a team that struggles each year, like Tampa. However, as I've mentioned, I feel that the Rays have a lot of things in their favor here. Additionally, when considering that the Rays are a perfect 8-0 the last eight times that they were favored in the -150 to -175 range, the current price starts to look significantly more reasonable. *Personal Favorite

 

[the duke]

GOLD SHEET LATE TELEPHONE SERVICE

NBA

TORONTO Home over New Jersey - 4:05 PM PDT

CLEVELAND over Chicago - Home 4:05 PM PDT

NEW YORK Home over Atlanta - 4:35 PM PDT