TEDDY COVERS
Friday April 18th 2008
-- Arena Football --
New York Dragons +7.0 (-110) / 4 units
We spent the first month of the season looking to bet against the New York Dragons, as they struggled mightily on offense, failing to score more than 50 points in any of their first five games, thanks to the inconsistent play of backup quarterback Rohan Davey. Davey was subsequently cut; veteran starter Aaron Garcia has returned to health, and the Dragons are coming off 63 and 62 point offensive efforts in their last two games, with Garcia guiding the Dragons to touchdowns on 16 of their 19 meaningful drives during that span. Garcia: ?We give our receivers a lot of freedom. Each week we play together we're getting more in sync. The line is playing a little better and that gives me more times with some of our crossing routes. We're just trying to get better each week and I think we're taking the right steps.?
Dragons head coach Weylan Harding: ?I'm happy with the overall effort of the whole team -- work ethic, execution, effort and those guys playing hard. There's no secret to football. If we can get all of the guys on the same page and executing, more times than not, you'll be successful. I can't say enough how they gelled together.? And while I?ve highlighted the improvements of the Dragons offense so far in this write-up, New York ?s defensive revival has been just as important to their current run of success. New York has shut down three straight opponents, holding Dallas to a season low 33, Grand Rapids to a season low 34 and Columbus to their second lowest scoring output, 44 points, in their last outing. Any defense that allows only 12 touchdowns on 29 meaningful drives through a three game span is doing something very right!
Tampa Bay is a desperate team, losers of four straight since their 2-0 start. The Storm defense has been unable to create big plays ? they haven?t forced a single turnover during this four game skid. There?s no question that the Storm have faced a number of quality opponents in recent weeks, but their late game meltdown against Arizona last week is but a symptom of a squad that seems to have lost confidence in their quarterback, their coach and their struggling defense. Tampa might win this game, but it won?t come easy. Take New York . Current line +7, reduce wager size to .5 unit at +4 or less.
-- Arena Football --
10:00p Ted
New Orleans Voodoo - Arizona Rattlers OVER 108.0 (-110) / 4 units
Arizona is a completely different offensive team with Lang Campbell behind center. Campbell led the Rattlers to 63 points last week at Tampa , matching the 63 point total that Arizona scored in their season opener, the only other game this season in which Campbell was healthy for the full 60 minutes. In between, with backup Jeff Smoker behind center for a four game stretch, the Rattlers were held to 43 or less on three separate occasions, averaging a full 20 points per game less with their backup QB than with their starter.
Campbell was stellar in his return last week at Tampa Bay , completing 24 of his 39 passes, including eight touchdowns. The offense didn?t commit a single turnover. The offensive line was equally strong, holding the Storm pass rush without a sack. Star WR Siaha Burley, limited with a hamstring injury early in the season, turned in his second consecutive four touchdown performance, catching 10 passes for 107 yards. With eight touchdowns on nine meaningful drives against a solid defensive foe, it appears as if this Rattlers offense is more than capable of trading touchdowns with anybody as long as Campbell is healthy.
Rattlers head coach Kevin Guy, following the win against the Storm: ?The offense did really well today. Coach Foster and Coach Kauahi did a great job mixing up the protections. We got the ball out a lot quicker. We put in new plays and new personnel during the bye week, and it worked out for us.?
New Orleans is coming off their worst offensive performance since Week 1. But the difference between the Dallas defense that they faced last week (one of the best in the league) and the Arizona defense they face this week (one of the weakest in the league) is as sharp as it gets. VooDoo quarterback Danny Wimprine ranks third in the AFL among full time starters with a 119.9 QB rating, throwing only three interceptions in sharp contrast to his 33 touchdown strikes. Prior to last week?s loss at Dallas , the VooDoo had been averaging more than 65 points per game in their previous four contests. Meanwhile, Arizona ?s defense has allowed 59+ in five of their six games, showing consistent vulnerability to strong passing attacks. Put it all together and we can expect a high scoring shootout in Arizona tonight, sending this game flying Over the total. Take the Over. Current total: 108. Reduce wager size to .5 unit at 112 or higher.