BEN BURNS
TWINS
Game: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Game Time: 4/4/2008 8:10:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Twins Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. Give the Royals credit for sweeping the Tigers. However, they still represent a major step down in class from the team (Angels) which the Twins had to deal with in their opening series. The Royals staged the improbable sweep by outpitching the Tigers. I don't expect them to enjoy that luxury this evening though. John Bale gets the call and he hasn't made a major league start since 2003. During his time away from the starting rotation, Bale, who had a 4.91 ERA in the spring, spent time in Japan and in the Royals' bullpen. Scott Baker gets the call for the Twins and he dominated the Royals last season, going 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three starts. During that stretch he allowed just four runs through 22 1/3 innings, striking out 20 while walking only two. The Twins won those three games by a combined score of 14-4. Baker, who took a perfect game into the ninth inning the last time he faced the Royals at Minnesota, allowed more than three earned runs only once in his final 11 starts last year. He was sharp in his limited spring innings and I expect him to continue his success against the Royals this evening.
JAYS
Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Game Time: 4/4/2008 7:15:00 PM Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays Reason: I'm playing on TORONTO. The Jays are slight underdogs (or pick'em) for their home opener but I feel that they should be favored. The Red Sox may have had yesterday off but they've still traveled all over the place, having gone from Japan to California to Canada. While the results have been favorable thus far, Red Sox manager Terry Francona admitted the travel has affected his team saying: "We're certainly not on all cylinders..." The Sox send Tim Wakefield to the mound. While he looked solid in the spring, keep in mind that the veteran knuckleballer will be turning 42 this season and that he was hurt at the end of last last year. Additionally, note that Wakefield lost by a score of 6-1 the last time that he faced the Jays, giving up seven hits, (2 HRs) two walks and four runs through six innings. Marcum gets the call for the Jays and he's coming off a strong season in which he went 11-4 with a 3.91 ERA after earning a spot in the starting rotation in May. He's made three starts against the Red Sox and the Jays won each of them. That includes a 5-0 shutout victory against Wakefield here in 2006 in which he allowed just two hits through eight complete innings, striking out 10 while walking only one. Note that Marcum was supposed to face the Red Sox in mid-March during spring training. However, knowing he would be facing the Red Sox in this series, the Jays elected to 'hide' Marcum from the Red Sox hitters. Instead of facing Boston, Marcum participated in a minor league game. In five innings, the 26-year-old right-hander allowed no runs on two hits with eight strikeouts. The Jays were 49-32 at Rogers Centre last season, including a sweep of the Sox in September. Look for the decision to hide Marcum to pay dividends as he outpitches Wakefield once again, leading the Jays to an important victory in their home opener.
MARLINS
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Florida Marlins Game Time: 4/4/2008 7:10:00 PM Prediction: Florida Marlins Reason: I'm laying the price with FLORIDA. Matt Morris gets the call for the visitors and he was 3-4 with a 6.10 ERA in 11 starts since the Pirates picked him up last season. Morris has also lost his last three starts against the Marlins, posting a 6.75 ERA in those games. On the other hand, Scott Olsen is 3-0 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts against the Pirates. Olsen comes off a rough season. However, he was solid the previous year and is better than he showed last season. Yes, the Pirates, who are likely to be without their starting shortstop, won two of three at Atlanta. They're still an awful 38-60 (-17.6) against southpaws since 2005 though, going 14-30 during that stretch when listed as a road underdog in the +100 to +125 range. The Marlins, who were embarrassed on Wednesday, are 10-6 (+7.3) the last 16 times that they were coming off a shutout loss and a profitable 54-43 (+16.2) their last 97 in that situation. The Pirates represent a major step down in class from the Mets and I look for the Marlins to bounce back with a convincing win of their own
NBA
SONICS
Game: Houston Rockets vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 4/4/2008 10:35:00 PM Prediction: Seattle SuperSonics Reason: I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. Facing a Portland team which had recently been eliminated from playoff contention and which was playing without its star player, the Rockets managed a win and cover last night. Playing the second of back to back games, vs. what I expect to be a highly motivated Seattle squad, I look for them to have a much more difficult time this evening. The Sonics, who had last night off, are playing their third last home game of the season and perhaps the third last game ever here in Seattle. I expect that to be a motivating factor for both the players and the fans this evening. The Rockets are tough. However, so is every other remaining opponent, as they'll face the Nuggets, Mavs, Spurs and Warriors along with the Rockets (at Houston) once more. In other words, tonight offers as good a chance as any to earn one last victory. Despite last night's win and cover, the Rockets, who are still without Yao Ming and who may well be without point guard Rafter Alston (missed last night) again today, remain a poor 2-6-1 ATS their last nine games. That includes a 0-2 SU/ATS mark when playing the second of back to back games, losing those games by a combined 30 points. They're now 8-15-3 ATS in the month of April since 2005. While the Rockets have won both this season's meetings, the Sonics have played them tough each time. Seattle lost by seven at Houston on January 21 and lost by only two at Seattle two nights later. Not surprisingly, the Sonics were 2-0 ATS in those games. Looking back a bit further and we find them at a profitable 5-0-1 ATS the last six in this series. The Sonics beat the Rockets by 17 in one of the last four meetings here in Seattle and they lost the other three games by two, five and six points. The Sonics have never been getting this many points at home vs. the Rockets over the past decade, which I feel provides us with terrific value. Look for the Sonics to give a big effort, taking this game down to the wire once again and improving to 6-1 ATS on the season when playing a home game with an over/under line in the 200 to 2004.5 range. *Western Conference GOM
MEMPHIS
I'm taking the points with MEMPHIS. After scoring in triple digits in 37 straight games, the Warriors have been held to doulbe-digits in scoring in each of their last two gams. They lost both those games by double-digits. The Grizzlies aren't exactly the best defensive team in the league (to say the least) so a return to triple-digits is likely. However, won't necessarily be enough to cover this inflated number as the Grizzlies are coming off a game in which they score 130 points themselves. In fact, they've scored a minimum of 106 points in six of their last eight games and at least 97 points in all eight of those games. After a blowout win on Wednesday, they've quietly gone a profitable 8-3 ATS their last 11 games. The Grizzlies have long been a team which builds momentum off a big win, as they're a profitable 66-38-2 ATS the last 96 times they were coming off a double-digit victory. The Grizzlies lost by just three points at Golden State a few weeks ago. Playing with 'triple revenge,' I look for them to continue their recent inspired play and give the Warriors, 5-9 ATS their last 14 games against teams with a losing record, a much tougher game than expected once again. *Friday Feast
NHL
OTTAWA
Game: Boston Bruins vs. Ottawa Senators Game Time: 4/4/2008 7:35:00 PM Prediction: Ottawa Senators Reason: I'm laying the price with OTTAWA. Looking at the last 15 times that the Bruins traveled to Ottawa and we find that the Senators were always favored by a minimum of -175, with those lines ranging from -175 to -300. There are a few reasons why tonight's line is significantly more reasonable. I feel that the Sens can overcome those 'reasons' though and that they are offering us excellent value. Yes, the Sens are now dealing with some injuries. However, they're still a team which is loaded with enough talent to overcome them. Yes, the Sens are playing their second game in the past two nights. However, they're also 13-7 the last 20 times that they played the second of back to back games. Yes, the Sens just lost to the Bruins recently. However, that was at Boston and the Sens won 4-1 when the teams played here at Ottawa three weeks ago. Including that result, the Sens are 15-5 the last 20 times they hosted the Bruins. Speaking of 15-5, the Sens are also 15-5 the last 20 times they played on a Friday. The Sens were the best team in the East for much of this season. Playing their regular season finale and knowing they need at least a point to guarantee a playoff berth, I expect them to build off yesterday's win and record the critical victory, improving to 73-43 since 2005 when coming off a win by two goals or more. *Annihilator
TWINS
Game: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Game Time: 4/4/2008 8:10:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Twins Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. Give the Royals credit for sweeping the Tigers. However, they still represent a major step down in class from the team (Angels) which the Twins had to deal with in their opening series. The Royals staged the improbable sweep by outpitching the Tigers. I don't expect them to enjoy that luxury this evening though. John Bale gets the call and he hasn't made a major league start since 2003. During his time away from the starting rotation, Bale, who had a 4.91 ERA in the spring, spent time in Japan and in the Royals' bullpen. Scott Baker gets the call for the Twins and he dominated the Royals last season, going 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three starts. During that stretch he allowed just four runs through 22 1/3 innings, striking out 20 while walking only two. The Twins won those three games by a combined score of 14-4. Baker, who took a perfect game into the ninth inning the last time he faced the Royals at Minnesota, allowed more than three earned runs only once in his final 11 starts last year. He was sharp in his limited spring innings and I expect him to continue his success against the Royals this evening.
JAYS
Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Game Time: 4/4/2008 7:15:00 PM Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays Reason: I'm playing on TORONTO. The Jays are slight underdogs (or pick'em) for their home opener but I feel that they should be favored. The Red Sox may have had yesterday off but they've still traveled all over the place, having gone from Japan to California to Canada. While the results have been favorable thus far, Red Sox manager Terry Francona admitted the travel has affected his team saying: "We're certainly not on all cylinders..." The Sox send Tim Wakefield to the mound. While he looked solid in the spring, keep in mind that the veteran knuckleballer will be turning 42 this season and that he was hurt at the end of last last year. Additionally, note that Wakefield lost by a score of 6-1 the last time that he faced the Jays, giving up seven hits, (2 HRs) two walks and four runs through six innings. Marcum gets the call for the Jays and he's coming off a strong season in which he went 11-4 with a 3.91 ERA after earning a spot in the starting rotation in May. He's made three starts against the Red Sox and the Jays won each of them. That includes a 5-0 shutout victory against Wakefield here in 2006 in which he allowed just two hits through eight complete innings, striking out 10 while walking only one. Note that Marcum was supposed to face the Red Sox in mid-March during spring training. However, knowing he would be facing the Red Sox in this series, the Jays elected to 'hide' Marcum from the Red Sox hitters. Instead of facing Boston, Marcum participated in a minor league game. In five innings, the 26-year-old right-hander allowed no runs on two hits with eight strikeouts. The Jays were 49-32 at Rogers Centre last season, including a sweep of the Sox in September. Look for the decision to hide Marcum to pay dividends as he outpitches Wakefield once again, leading the Jays to an important victory in their home opener.
MARLINS
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Florida Marlins Game Time: 4/4/2008 7:10:00 PM Prediction: Florida Marlins Reason: I'm laying the price with FLORIDA. Matt Morris gets the call for the visitors and he was 3-4 with a 6.10 ERA in 11 starts since the Pirates picked him up last season. Morris has also lost his last three starts against the Marlins, posting a 6.75 ERA in those games. On the other hand, Scott Olsen is 3-0 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts against the Pirates. Olsen comes off a rough season. However, he was solid the previous year and is better than he showed last season. Yes, the Pirates, who are likely to be without their starting shortstop, won two of three at Atlanta. They're still an awful 38-60 (-17.6) against southpaws since 2005 though, going 14-30 during that stretch when listed as a road underdog in the +100 to +125 range. The Marlins, who were embarrassed on Wednesday, are 10-6 (+7.3) the last 16 times that they were coming off a shutout loss and a profitable 54-43 (+16.2) their last 97 in that situation. The Pirates represent a major step down in class from the Mets and I look for the Marlins to bounce back with a convincing win of their own
NBA
SONICS
Game: Houston Rockets vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 4/4/2008 10:35:00 PM Prediction: Seattle SuperSonics Reason: I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. Facing a Portland team which had recently been eliminated from playoff contention and which was playing without its star player, the Rockets managed a win and cover last night. Playing the second of back to back games, vs. what I expect to be a highly motivated Seattle squad, I look for them to have a much more difficult time this evening. The Sonics, who had last night off, are playing their third last home game of the season and perhaps the third last game ever here in Seattle. I expect that to be a motivating factor for both the players and the fans this evening. The Rockets are tough. However, so is every other remaining opponent, as they'll face the Nuggets, Mavs, Spurs and Warriors along with the Rockets (at Houston) once more. In other words, tonight offers as good a chance as any to earn one last victory. Despite last night's win and cover, the Rockets, who are still without Yao Ming and who may well be without point guard Rafter Alston (missed last night) again today, remain a poor 2-6-1 ATS their last nine games. That includes a 0-2 SU/ATS mark when playing the second of back to back games, losing those games by a combined 30 points. They're now 8-15-3 ATS in the month of April since 2005. While the Rockets have won both this season's meetings, the Sonics have played them tough each time. Seattle lost by seven at Houston on January 21 and lost by only two at Seattle two nights later. Not surprisingly, the Sonics were 2-0 ATS in those games. Looking back a bit further and we find them at a profitable 5-0-1 ATS the last six in this series. The Sonics beat the Rockets by 17 in one of the last four meetings here in Seattle and they lost the other three games by two, five and six points. The Sonics have never been getting this many points at home vs. the Rockets over the past decade, which I feel provides us with terrific value. Look for the Sonics to give a big effort, taking this game down to the wire once again and improving to 6-1 ATS on the season when playing a home game with an over/under line in the 200 to 2004.5 range. *Western Conference GOM
MEMPHIS
I'm taking the points with MEMPHIS. After scoring in triple digits in 37 straight games, the Warriors have been held to doulbe-digits in scoring in each of their last two gams. They lost both those games by double-digits. The Grizzlies aren't exactly the best defensive team in the league (to say the least) so a return to triple-digits is likely. However, won't necessarily be enough to cover this inflated number as the Grizzlies are coming off a game in which they score 130 points themselves. In fact, they've scored a minimum of 106 points in six of their last eight games and at least 97 points in all eight of those games. After a blowout win on Wednesday, they've quietly gone a profitable 8-3 ATS their last 11 games. The Grizzlies have long been a team which builds momentum off a big win, as they're a profitable 66-38-2 ATS the last 96 times they were coming off a double-digit victory. The Grizzlies lost by just three points at Golden State a few weeks ago. Playing with 'triple revenge,' I look for them to continue their recent inspired play and give the Warriors, 5-9 ATS their last 14 games against teams with a losing record, a much tougher game than expected once again. *Friday Feast
NHL
OTTAWA
Game: Boston Bruins vs. Ottawa Senators Game Time: 4/4/2008 7:35:00 PM Prediction: Ottawa Senators Reason: I'm laying the price with OTTAWA. Looking at the last 15 times that the Bruins traveled to Ottawa and we find that the Senators were always favored by a minimum of -175, with those lines ranging from -175 to -300. There are a few reasons why tonight's line is significantly more reasonable. I feel that the Sens can overcome those 'reasons' though and that they are offering us excellent value. Yes, the Sens are now dealing with some injuries. However, they're still a team which is loaded with enough talent to overcome them. Yes, the Sens are playing their second game in the past two nights. However, they're also 13-7 the last 20 times that they played the second of back to back games. Yes, the Sens just lost to the Bruins recently. However, that was at Boston and the Sens won 4-1 when the teams played here at Ottawa three weeks ago. Including that result, the Sens are 15-5 the last 20 times they hosted the Bruins. Speaking of 15-5, the Sens are also 15-5 the last 20 times they played on a Friday. The Sens were the best team in the East for much of this season. Playing their regular season finale and knowing they need at least a point to guarantee a playoff berth, I expect them to build off yesterday's win and record the critical victory, improving to 73-43 since 2005 when coming off a win by two goals or more. *Annihilator
......thanks man.....