Twins Jun 20 2008 8:10PM
PICK: Minnesota Twins
Your pick will be graded at: -113 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* MINNESOTA over ARIZONA
The Twins are playing much better baseball than the Diamondbacks right now, Scott Baker is better than Randy Johnson, and the home team has all key arms rested and ready from an outstanding bullpen. So given the dominance of American League home teams over their N.L. counterparts in Inter-League play this season, why is this one being priced so low? It shows that reputations still matter in the marketplace. Even when they no longer have merit.
Randy Johnson managed to put quite a good run together in late May, showing the guile that he still has, and what he can do when all of the pieces fall together. But in his last two outings he became a 44-year old pitcher again, getting knocked around by the Pirates and Royals, two uninspiring offenses. Snapping back is anything but an automatic, and we might even seem him drop to an even lower level. It must be noted that while his 4.76 ERA for the full season places him squarely as a below-average pitcher, it has also come against some weak competition - of the 121 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings this season, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #115. The bottom line? There is not all that much there, and the same can be said of the team behind him. Arizona is simply the best of a weak bunch in the N.L. West, with teams from that division now 35 games under .500 vs. outside competition.
Scott Baker?s 2-2/3.71 does not raise a lot of eyebrows, and that works in our favor. His command has been outstanding, with a terrific ratio of 42 strikeouts vs. only nine hits allowed, and in terms of consistency, note that he has only allowed more than three runs once, a windy night in Texas in which Minnesota out-slugged the Rangers 12-6. We certainly do not hold that game against him. He is more than capable of keeping up that form against an Arizona offense that lacks patience (only two teams have more strikeouts), and also confidence away from Chase Field. So we are absolutely buying in at the right time with him, and do not be surprised if it is the first of many such investments to come.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
Minnesota Twins OFF
OFF
8
-111 -110
8
-113 -105
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 2008 7:10PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 8.5 Belmont
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 5* HOUSTON/TAMPA BAY Under
Last week we wrote a couple of columns concerning Roy Oswalt, the first calling for him to be on an up-tick following his slow start, with a bullpen session and the advice of Lance Berkman leading to a turn-around. And the second came after we lost a 6* Under play with him against the Yankees, a game in which he would have left trailing only 3-0 in the 6th inning if not for a single bobble by Miguel Tejada on a routine force-out at second base, but ended up getting charged with seven earned runs because the scoring rules of baseball could not give Tejada an error on that play. So what does it all mean here? There is still a notion of Oswalt being in a correction mode, but the fact that Sunday?s box score ended up looking as bad as it did means that the value is excellent here. And with Matt Garza bringing value from his own misleading numbers, we have a great fit here.
Garza?s 5-3/4.06 for the full season does not even come close to measuring what we see from him. First, note that the ERA goes to 3.41 after he returned from that April injury, one that severely limited him in his first two starts (he sat out 17 days after those poor showings). Second, note that the numbers have been produced against some most difficult competition - of the 121 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings so far this season, he checks in at #2. Third, take a look at this 4-0/2.19 from this mound. Then take a second look, and note that the sparkling numbers have come despite facing the Red Sox, Yankees, Marlins and Rangers, four offenses that pack a lot of punch.
We are not supposed to be seeing full 9?s for this one, but that is what happens when each side of the equation is under-valued. And with neither offense anything special right now, there is little fear of the kind of big innings that could cause difficulty for our purposes.
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Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays OFF
OFF
8.5
-150 -110
8.5
-145 -115
Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 20 2008 7:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 8 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 5* TORONTO/PITTSBURGH Under
It is absolutely no secret that Roy Halladay is good; his career marks and current 3.09 ERA through 107.2 innings, a span in which he has walked only 13 batters, is plenty of evidence for the marketplace to see. But there is still not a realization as to just how good he is. Having the statistics that he has are one thing, but to have compiled them against the 3rd most difficult slate of hitters of any pitcher in the sport (of the 121 that have worked at least 60 innings so far), is rather remarkable. Now he gets a chance to not only step down in class here, but also to face a team that has precious little experience against him - Doug Mentkiewicz is the only projected Pirate starter that has more than four career at-bats. Dial Halladay up for another strong outing in this one, and with all key arms rested and ready in a solid Blue Jay bullpen the windows remain shut for the latter innings as well.
But while Halladay is still under-valued because of that schedule difficulty, Zach Duke is also a fit for our purposes. Duke gets little respect because his stuff is not explosive - he only has 32 strikeouts in 85 innings. But he is working the strike zone well (24 walks), and is the kind of finesse lefty that can cause major problems against an opponent that has not seen him before. That will be the case with a struggling Toronto offense, with only David Eckstein having at least 10 career at-bats among the projected starters. He has worked to a 3.96 tune against non-division opponents, an example of how that style comes into play, and he has gone at least six full innings nine times in his last 10 starts. the only failure? Against a Cub lineup that was getting their fourth look of the season against him, an offense that has been one of MLB?s best against left-handers. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have been one of the worst, and it shows again here.
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Toronto Blue Jays
Pittsburgh Pirates OFF
OFF
-152
8
100 -151
8
-105
Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals Jun 20 2008 7:35PM
PICK: Texas Rangers
Your pick will be graded at: -117 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* TEXAS over WASHINGTON
An awfully low price here to back the far better offense, and to fully appreciate the gap look at it this way - should a draft be held this morning going position-by-position across the field, a case could be made that catcher Jesus Flores would be the only National that would get picked over his Ranger counterparts (and even that is a clsoe call, since the current form of Flores at the plate may not last). So with Kevin Millwood showing that he is back to full health (has worked six full innings in every start since coming off of the DL, including that win over the Mets in Shea in his last outing), we have a bargain price range here.
Our value key comes from the 6-3 record of Tim Redding, a rather good mark when toiling for a team that is a dismal 29-45. But note that Redding has been most fortunate. How about this for a baseball pendulum - despite pitching for the worst offensive team in the National League, he actually leads all N.L. starters in run support, getting a nifty 6.0 per outing. Naturally, that can not last. And even more natural is the fact that it has led to a misleading record that significantly impacts this line. Consider his last five starts - a 5.97 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP, with six home runs allowed in only 28.2 innings. If you do that with the N.L.?s worst offense behind you what is the bottom line? An 0-5? Maybe a 1-4? Not even close - Washington won all five games, scoring 37 runs, and bailing Redding out each time. It has been a pure case of Baseball Roulette, and it is why we can play at such a short price when the lineups are such a mismatch.
The Rangers are growing in confidence, and will get Milton Bradley back into the lineup tonight. A market that is slow to pick up on their improvements leaves us with a bargain.
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Texas Rangers
Washington Nationals OFF
OFF
-117
9
-120 -112
9
-125
Cardinals (RL) at Boston (RL) Jun 20 2008 7:05PM
PICK: Boston (RL)
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 6* BOSTON Run Line over ST. LOUIS
In the first cycle of Inter-League play this season we twice went to the well with these Red Sox at 6* Ratings for Run Line plays against Milwaukee. They brought both home, and the run the past four seasons at home in Inter-League play is now 20-10 as -1.5. That is quite a statement about not only the quality of the team, but also how difficult Fenway Park can be for opponents that are not accustomed to playing in these confines. Tonight we expect more of the same, and the fact that we can get an underdog return takes this to a high level again.
The Cardinal offense is taking on water without Albert Pujols; it was just going to be a mater of time. Only once in their last seven games were they able to score more than three runs, and in five of those contests were held to two or less. The 0-3 home collar vs. Kansas City leading up to tonight was an outright embarrassment, with only four runs scored throughout that entire series. Now they have to step way up in class here, and we do mean way up - in a rather remarkable scheduling layout, Milwaukee is the only team with a winning record that they have played on the road all season. And over the past month, 25 of 28 games have come against teams that currently sport losing records.
The marketplace rarely evaluates such scheduling matters properly, because they are so rare. That is one of our keys to getting such good value tonight, and the other is the 8-2/3.77 of Kyle Lohse, which includes a current run of 5-0/2.03. Nice numbers, of course, but naturally they have come against weak competition (of the 121 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings this season, he checks in at #113 in terms of difficulty of batters faced). The bottom line is that his stuff is simply not good enough to maintain the current pace very long, and we believe this is the ideal time to step in. For a guy that supposedly brings such great current form the confidence level is not going to be all that high - he has worked to an 0-3/6.49 in his career against the Red Sox, and also to a 5.04 in all road games this season. But best of all is that fact that he threw a season-high of 116 pitches in beating Philadelphia in his last outing. He has made 15 starts the last three seasons after throwing 105 pitches or more, and it has been an ugly 6.92 over 80.2 innings in those games.
The challenge for Lohse is made more difficult by the return of Kevin Youkilis for Boston tonight, and the slumping St. Louis offense runs into its own problems against Tim Wakefield, who has worked to a 2.17 tune over his last tour starts, lasting 29 innings in that span, and posting a solid ratio of more strikeouts (23) than hits allowed (19). As always, he brings an advantage with his knuckler against a lineup that lacks experience against the pitcher (Troy Glaus and Adam Kennedy are the only Cardinals with any track records, and they are a combined .220 over 50 at-bats). And with all key arms rested and ready from the bullpen, the latter innings do not give anything away either.