Friday Service Plays 6/20/08
- Thread starter MLBKING
- Start date
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
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Scott Ferrall
TAMPA over Houston no matter what the odds are (no early line)--Oswalt loses to Garza at the Trop, where the Rays have won 28 games. They are tied with Boston for the second best home record in all of baseball. People had better start believing in this team because all they do is win. The Astros are slumping ass and aren't hitting or scoring runs this week.
Minnesota -110 over Arizona--Scott Baker has a nice ERA of 3.71 and he'll upset Randy Johnson and get the Twins their fourth straight win. TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 RUNS
GIANTS -105 over Royals--KC has won 5 straight but CAIN brings them back down to earth. SF moves to .500 on the road with the win. KC is 13-18 at Kauffman Stadium.
DETROIT +110 over San Diego--The Tigers have won 8 of 10 and are within 4 games of .500. The Padres just got swept by the Yankees. TAKE THE OVER 8.5 RUNS
Oakland -200 over Florida--Hendrickson is solid, but Harden is 4-0 and the A's are 5 games over .500 in the Coliseum. TAKE THE UNDER 8 RUNS
DODGERS -110 over Indians--Kershaw gets his 1st major league win against Cliff Lee no less. Lee is 10-1 but the Tribe are 8 games under .500 on the road. TAKE THE UNDER 8 RUNS. They both have low ERA's and don't give up a lot fo runs
TAMPA over Houston no matter what the odds are (no early line)--Oswalt loses to Garza at the Trop, where the Rays have won 28 games. They are tied with Boston for the second best home record in all of baseball. People had better start believing in this team because all they do is win. The Astros are slumping ass and aren't hitting or scoring runs this week.
Minnesota -110 over Arizona--Scott Baker has a nice ERA of 3.71 and he'll upset Randy Johnson and get the Twins their fourth straight win. TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 RUNS
GIANTS -105 over Royals--KC has won 5 straight but CAIN brings them back down to earth. SF moves to .500 on the road with the win. KC is 13-18 at Kauffman Stadium.
DETROIT +110 over San Diego--The Tigers have won 8 of 10 and are within 4 games of .500. The Padres just got swept by the Yankees. TAKE THE OVER 8.5 RUNS
Oakland -200 over Florida--Hendrickson is solid, but Harden is 4-0 and the A's are 5 games over .500 in the Coliseum. TAKE THE UNDER 8 RUNS
DODGERS -110 over Indians--Kershaw gets his 1st major league win against Cliff Lee no less. Lee is 10-1 but the Tribe are 8 games under .500 on the road. TAKE THE UNDER 8 RUNS. They both have low ERA's and don't give up a lot fo runs
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JB's Computer Plays
Friday, June 20, 2008
Time Game Selections
2:20 p.m. Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
(L) John Danks (4-4) vs. (L) Ted Lilly (7-5) Chicago Cubs -130
7:05 p.m. Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees
(R) Edinson Volquez (9-2) vs. (R) Mike Mussina (10-4) New York Yankees -140
8:05 p.m. Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers
(R) Radhames Liz (1-0) vs. (R) Jeff Suppan (4-4) Milwaukee Brewers -140 * * *
9:05 p.m. New York Mets at Colorado Rockies
(R) John Maine (6-5) vs. (R) Aaron Cook (10-3) Colorado Rockies -120
*** Best Bet
Friday, June 20, 2008
Time Game Selections
2:20 p.m. Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
(L) John Danks (4-4) vs. (L) Ted Lilly (7-5) Chicago Cubs -130
7:05 p.m. Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees
(R) Edinson Volquez (9-2) vs. (R) Mike Mussina (10-4) New York Yankees -140
8:05 p.m. Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers
(R) Radhames Liz (1-0) vs. (R) Jeff Suppan (4-4) Milwaukee Brewers -140 * * *
9:05 p.m. New York Mets at Colorado Rockies
(R) John Maine (6-5) vs. (R) Aaron Cook (10-3) Colorado Rockies -120
*** Best Bet
- Apr 7, 2008
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Gina
Friday, June 20, 2008 9:05 p.m. est.
New York Mets (35-36) at Colorado Rockies (31-42)
(R) John Maine (6-5) vs. (R) Aaron Cook (10-3)
Colorado Rockies have won six of the last seven meetings against the Mets at Coors Field and will have their ace Aaron Cook (10-3, 3.29 ERA) on the hill tonight. The right-hander has won four straight decisions, including three starts and is 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA in seven career appearances, (five starts) versus the Mets. The Rockies have won five of Cooks last 6 starts at home. New York counters with John Maine (6-5, 3.87). The right-hander has lost three of his last four decisions and is 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA in two career starts versus Colorado.
Go with the hot Rockies at home. Colorado has won 11 of their last 15 games, eight of its last 11 at home.
Colorado Rockies -120
Friday, June 20, 2008 9:05 p.m. est.
New York Mets (35-36) at Colorado Rockies (31-42)
(R) John Maine (6-5) vs. (R) Aaron Cook (10-3)
Colorado Rockies have won six of the last seven meetings against the Mets at Coors Field and will have their ace Aaron Cook (10-3, 3.29 ERA) on the hill tonight. The right-hander has won four straight decisions, including three starts and is 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA in seven career appearances, (five starts) versus the Mets. The Rockies have won five of Cooks last 6 starts at home. New York counters with John Maine (6-5, 3.87). The right-hander has lost three of his last four decisions and is 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA in two career starts versus Colorado.
Go with the hot Rockies at home. Colorado has won 11 of their last 15 games, eight of its last 11 at home.
Colorado Rockies -120
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Robert Ferrrrringo
2.5-Unit Play. Take #968 Atlanta (-135) over Seattle (7:30 p.m., Friday, June 20)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #970 Milwaukee (-140) over Baltimore (8 p.m., Friday, June 20)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #972 Minnesota (-110) over Arizona (8 p.m., Friday, June 20)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.0 Arizona at Minnesota (8 p.m., Friday, June 20)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #952 Colorado (-125) over New York Mets (9 p.m., Friday, June 20)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #958 Boston (-175) over St. Louis (7 p.m., Friday, June 20)
1-Unit Play. Take #958 Boston (-1.5, -110) over St. Louis (7 p.m., Friday, June 20)
1-Unit Play. Take #955 Toronto (-150) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Friday, June 20)
1-Unit Play. Take #974 Kansas City (-110) over San Francisco (8 p.m., Friday, June 20)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #968 Atlanta (-135) over Seattle (7:30 p.m., Friday, June 20)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #970 Milwaukee (-140) over Baltimore (8 p.m., Friday, June 20)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #972 Minnesota (-110) over Arizona (8 p.m., Friday, June 20)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.0 Arizona at Minnesota (8 p.m., Friday, June 20)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #952 Colorado (-125) over New York Mets (9 p.m., Friday, June 20)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #958 Boston (-175) over St. Louis (7 p.m., Friday, June 20)
1-Unit Play. Take #958 Boston (-1.5, -110) over St. Louis (7 p.m., Friday, June 20)
1-Unit Play. Take #955 Toronto (-150) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Friday, June 20)
1-Unit Play. Take #974 Kansas City (-110) over San Francisco (8 p.m., Friday, June 20)
- Apr 7, 2008
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GamblersWorld
TIP OF THE DAY Sport: MLB Game: 7:05PM, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Current Line: -165 Over/Under: 9.5 Reason: The Boston Red Sox will be trying to extend a winning streak on Friday when they take on the St. Louis Cardinals at Fenway Park. The Cardinals will trot Kyle Lohse out to the mound in this one. Righthander Lohse has a 8-2 record and a 3.77 ERA this season. Lohse's opponent in this one will be Tim Wakefield. The Red Sox righthander has a 4.19 ERA to go along with a 4-4 record this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Red Sox listed as 165-moneyline favorites versus the Cardinals, while the game's total is sitting at 9½. The Cardinals lost 8-7 to the Royals last time out at EVEN odds. The five runs fell UNDER the posted over/under (9.5). Rick Ankiel hit a solo home run for the only Cardinals run. Brad Thompson suffered the loss, giving up two runs off five hits over five innings of work. J.D. Drew belted a three-run homer as the Red Sox defeated the Phillies 7-4 in the rubber match on Wednesday, as +125 road underdogs. The game's 11 runs made it OVER the posted over/under (9.5). Drew finished 4-for-5 at the plate with four RBIs for the Red Sox. Justin Masterson tossed five innings for the win, and Jonathan Papelbon threw a scoreless ninth inning for his 21st save. Current streak: St. Louis has lost 3 straight games. Boston has won 2 straight games. Team records: St. Louis: 42-32 SU Boston: 46-29 SU St. Louis most recently: When playing on Friday are 5-5 Before playing Boston are 5-5 After playing Kansas City are 4-6 After a loss are 5-5 Boston most recently: When playing on Friday are 8-2 Before playing St. Louis are 7-3 After playing Philadelphia are 8-2 After a win are 6-4 A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Boston St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston Boston is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing St. Louis The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
TIP OF THE DAY Sport: MLB Game: 7:05PM, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Current Line: -165 Over/Under: 9.5 Reason: The Boston Red Sox will be trying to extend a winning streak on Friday when they take on the St. Louis Cardinals at Fenway Park. The Cardinals will trot Kyle Lohse out to the mound in this one. Righthander Lohse has a 8-2 record and a 3.77 ERA this season. Lohse's opponent in this one will be Tim Wakefield. The Red Sox righthander has a 4.19 ERA to go along with a 4-4 record this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Red Sox listed as 165-moneyline favorites versus the Cardinals, while the game's total is sitting at 9½. The Cardinals lost 8-7 to the Royals last time out at EVEN odds. The five runs fell UNDER the posted over/under (9.5). Rick Ankiel hit a solo home run for the only Cardinals run. Brad Thompson suffered the loss, giving up two runs off five hits over five innings of work. J.D. Drew belted a three-run homer as the Red Sox defeated the Phillies 7-4 in the rubber match on Wednesday, as +125 road underdogs. The game's 11 runs made it OVER the posted over/under (9.5). Drew finished 4-for-5 at the plate with four RBIs for the Red Sox. Justin Masterson tossed five innings for the win, and Jonathan Papelbon threw a scoreless ninth inning for his 21st save. Current streak: St. Louis has lost 3 straight games. Boston has won 2 straight games. Team records: St. Louis: 42-32 SU Boston: 46-29 SU St. Louis most recently: When playing on Friday are 5-5 Before playing Boston are 5-5 After playing Kansas City are 4-6 After a loss are 5-5 Boston most recently: When playing on Friday are 8-2 Before playing St. Louis are 7-3 After playing Philadelphia are 8-2 After a win are 6-4 A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Boston St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston Boston is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing St. Louis The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
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write-up:
I can't wait for this game for several reasons. Irrelevant of the sport, any team that gets embarrassed by another squad looks to get up for that team the next time around- let it be the NBA, College Basketball Conference revenge game, let it even baseball with a team avoiding to get swept or in College Football given a revenge game last year, well much is the same for the Connecticut Sun vs. the Monachs today. Follow me on the logic today - the Sun destroyed this team at home last time around in an ugly 87-64 fashion back in late May. But, Sacramento was going through new coaching and they have turned things around in many respects after all, they have won their last 4 of 6 including 3 straight road victories at New York, at Washington and at Minnesotta - irrelevant of the sport, to win 3 straight road games is extremely tough and shows character. What's key is in those 3 games, they averaged about 76 points on the road and lost a tough fought battle to the Sparks at home. Expect the Sun who got drilled at Phoenix to show up big today and expect the Monarchs to be an active dog as nearly 65% of the public favors the Sun, but I like the home dog and when such a home dog is an active dog, it typically yields the over. I look for this game to hit into the high 150's today and possibly even in the low 160's. The over is 4-1 in the Conn Sun's last 5 ballgames after an ATS Loss meaning they show up after a loss and of course the Monarchs have revenge so they too will show up on that account to send this game likely over the posted total.
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JIMMY BOYD
Rockies -120 (listing Cook and Maine)
The Rockies are rolling! After a 3-game sweep of the Indians, I like them to stay hot at home against the Mets here. Cook has been brilliant for the Rocks all season long with a 10-3 mark and a 3.29 ERA. The Mets are just 4-20 against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games this season while Colorado is 17-5 against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 over the last 2 seasons. Maine has a losing record on the road this season and has really struggled over his last 3 starts. Cook is a perfect 3-0 against the Mets in his career with a low 2.13 ERA. The Mets' road woes continue against Cook. Bet the Rockies.
Rockies -120 (listing Cook and Maine)
The Rockies are rolling! After a 3-game sweep of the Indians, I like them to stay hot at home against the Mets here. Cook has been brilliant for the Rocks all season long with a 10-3 mark and a 3.29 ERA. The Mets are just 4-20 against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games this season while Colorado is 17-5 against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 over the last 2 seasons. Maine has a losing record on the road this season and has really struggled over his last 3 starts. Cook is a perfect 3-0 against the Mets in his career with a low 2.13 ERA. The Mets' road woes continue against Cook. Bet the Rockies.
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Tom Freese
Game: Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 2008 10:40PM
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Reason: Cleveland starter Cliff Lee is 13-6 his last 19 June team starts and the Indians are 12-3 in the last 15 interleague starts by Lee. The Tribe is 7-1 in the last 8 road starts made by Lee are 5-1 their last 6 games in Game 1 of a series. The Dodgers are 15-36 their 51 interleague games and they are 3-13 their last 16 interleague games vs. lefty starters. Los Angeles is 3-14 vs. AL Central teams. PLAY ON CLEVELAND w/Lee
Game: Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 2008 10:40PM
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Reason: Cleveland starter Cliff Lee is 13-6 his last 19 June team starts and the Indians are 12-3 in the last 15 interleague starts by Lee. The Tribe is 7-1 in the last 8 road starts made by Lee are 5-1 their last 6 games in Game 1 of a series. The Dodgers are 15-36 their 51 interleague games and they are 3-13 their last 16 interleague games vs. lefty starters. Los Angeles is 3-14 vs. AL Central teams. PLAY ON CLEVELAND w/Lee
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Sapkowski 12-1 last 3 nights
Premium
34-16 L50, Yesterday 1-1 (CHI White Sox"W",CIN Reds"L")
TB Rays
ATL Braves
Free picks27-13 L40, 2-0 Yesterday (TB Rays"W",COL Rockies"W")
MIN Twins
COL Rockies
KC Royals
Tips:
For Euro 2008 play Coratia(as Draw no bet)
Premium
34-16 L50, Yesterday 1-1 (CHI White Sox"W",CIN Reds"L")TB Rays
ATL Braves
Free picks
27-13 L40, 2-0 Yesterday (TB Rays"W",COL Rockies"W")MIN Twins
COL Rockies
KC Royals
Tips:
For Euro 2008 play Coratia(as Draw no bet)
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WUNDERDOG COMP
Game: Baltimore at Milwaukee (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Milwaukee +129 (moneyline)
The Birds are hot again having won 5 of 6 and 11 of their last 16. The Birds have won 2 of the 3 games started by Radhames Liz, who is yet to allow more than 4 hits in any game he has started, certainly capable of keeping the Birds in posiion to win. Jeff Suppan has provided many quality starts for the Brewers, but there is always the question of the bullpen, which has allowed 31 runs in his 14 starts, or more than 2 additional runs a game, as well as 11 blown saves. Think this game is a toss-up, so the value rides with the O's here
Game: Baltimore at Milwaukee (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Milwaukee +129 (moneyline)
The Birds are hot again having won 5 of 6 and 11 of their last 16. The Birds have won 2 of the 3 games started by Radhames Liz, who is yet to allow more than 4 hits in any game he has started, certainly capable of keeping the Birds in posiion to win. Jeff Suppan has provided many quality starts for the Brewers, but there is always the question of the bullpen, which has allowed 31 runs in his 14 starts, or more than 2 additional runs a game, as well as 11 blown saves. Think this game is a toss-up, so the value rides with the O's here
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Twins Jun 20 2008 8:10PM
PICK: Minnesota Twins
Your pick will be graded at: -113 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* MINNESOTA over ARIZONA
The Twins are playing much better baseball than the Diamondbacks right now, Scott Baker is better than Randy Johnson, and the home team has all key arms rested and ready from an outstanding bullpen. So given the dominance of American League home teams over their N.L. counterparts in Inter-League play this season, why is this one being priced so low? It shows that reputations still matter in the marketplace. Even when they no longer have merit.
Randy Johnson managed to put quite a good run together in late May, showing the guile that he still has, and what he can do when all of the pieces fall together. But in his last two outings he became a 44-year old pitcher again, getting knocked around by the Pirates and Royals, two uninspiring offenses. Snapping back is anything but an automatic, and we might even seem him drop to an even lower level. It must be noted that while his 4.76 ERA for the full season places him squarely as a below-average pitcher, it has also come against some weak competition - of the 121 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings this season, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #115. The bottom line? There is not all that much there, and the same can be said of the team behind him. Arizona is simply the best of a weak bunch in the N.L. West, with teams from that division now 35 games under .500 vs. outside competition.
Scott Baker?s 2-2/3.71 does not raise a lot of eyebrows, and that works in our favor. His command has been outstanding, with a terrific ratio of 42 strikeouts vs. only nine hits allowed, and in terms of consistency, note that he has only allowed more than three runs once, a windy night in Texas in which Minnesota out-slugged the Rangers 12-6. We certainly do not hold that game against him. He is more than capable of keeping up that form against an Arizona offense that lacks patience (only two teams have more strikeouts), and also confidence away from Chase Field. So we are absolutely buying in at the right time with him, and do not be surprised if it is the first of many such investments to come.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Arizona Diamondbacks
Minnesota Twins OFF
OFF
8
-111 -110
8
-113 -105
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 2008 7:10PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 8.5 Belmont
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 5* HOUSTON/TAMPA BAY Under
Last week we wrote a couple of columns concerning Roy Oswalt, the first calling for him to be on an up-tick following his slow start, with a bullpen session and the advice of Lance Berkman leading to a turn-around. And the second came after we lost a 6* Under play with him against the Yankees, a game in which he would have left trailing only 3-0 in the 6th inning if not for a single bobble by Miguel Tejada on a routine force-out at second base, but ended up getting charged with seven earned runs because the scoring rules of baseball could not give Tejada an error on that play. So what does it all mean here? There is still a notion of Oswalt being in a correction mode, but the fact that Sunday?s box score ended up looking as bad as it did means that the value is excellent here. And with Matt Garza bringing value from his own misleading numbers, we have a great fit here.
Garza?s 5-3/4.06 for the full season does not even come close to measuring what we see from him. First, note that the ERA goes to 3.41 after he returned from that April injury, one that severely limited him in his first two starts (he sat out 17 days after those poor showings). Second, note that the numbers have been produced against some most difficult competition - of the 121 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings so far this season, he checks in at #2. Third, take a look at this 4-0/2.19 from this mound. Then take a second look, and note that the sparkling numbers have come despite facing the Red Sox, Yankees, Marlins and Rangers, four offenses that pack a lot of punch.
We are not supposed to be seeing full 9?s for this one, but that is what happens when each side of the equation is under-valued. And with neither offense anything special right now, there is little fear of the kind of big innings that could cause difficulty for our purposes.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays OFF
OFF
8.5
-150 -110
8.5
-145 -115
Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 20 2008 7:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 8 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 5* TORONTO/PITTSBURGH Under
It is absolutely no secret that Roy Halladay is good; his career marks and current 3.09 ERA through 107.2 innings, a span in which he has walked only 13 batters, is plenty of evidence for the marketplace to see. But there is still not a realization as to just how good he is. Having the statistics that he has are one thing, but to have compiled them against the 3rd most difficult slate of hitters of any pitcher in the sport (of the 121 that have worked at least 60 innings so far), is rather remarkable. Now he gets a chance to not only step down in class here, but also to face a team that has precious little experience against him - Doug Mentkiewicz is the only projected Pirate starter that has more than four career at-bats. Dial Halladay up for another strong outing in this one, and with all key arms rested and ready in a solid Blue Jay bullpen the windows remain shut for the latter innings as well.
But while Halladay is still under-valued because of that schedule difficulty, Zach Duke is also a fit for our purposes. Duke gets little respect because his stuff is not explosive - he only has 32 strikeouts in 85 innings. But he is working the strike zone well (24 walks), and is the kind of finesse lefty that can cause major problems against an opponent that has not seen him before. That will be the case with a struggling Toronto offense, with only David Eckstein having at least 10 career at-bats among the projected starters. He has worked to a 3.96 tune against non-division opponents, an example of how that style comes into play, and he has gone at least six full innings nine times in his last 10 starts. the only failure? Against a Cub lineup that was getting their fourth look of the season against him, an offense that has been one of MLB?s best against left-handers. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have been one of the worst, and it shows again here.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Toronto Blue Jays
Pittsburgh Pirates OFF
OFF
-152
8
100 -151
8
-105
Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals Jun 20 2008 7:35PM
PICK: Texas Rangers
Your pick will be graded at: -117 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* TEXAS over WASHINGTON
An awfully low price here to back the far better offense, and to fully appreciate the gap look at it this way - should a draft be held this morning going position-by-position across the field, a case could be made that catcher Jesus Flores would be the only National that would get picked over his Ranger counterparts (and even that is a clsoe call, since the current form of Flores at the plate may not last). So with Kevin Millwood showing that he is back to full health (has worked six full innings in every start since coming off of the DL, including that win over the Mets in Shea in his last outing), we have a bargain price range here.
Our value key comes from the 6-3 record of Tim Redding, a rather good mark when toiling for a team that is a dismal 29-45. But note that Redding has been most fortunate. How about this for a baseball pendulum - despite pitching for the worst offensive team in the National League, he actually leads all N.L. starters in run support, getting a nifty 6.0 per outing. Naturally, that can not last. And even more natural is the fact that it has led to a misleading record that significantly impacts this line. Consider his last five starts - a 5.97 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP, with six home runs allowed in only 28.2 innings. If you do that with the N.L.?s worst offense behind you what is the bottom line? An 0-5? Maybe a 1-4? Not even close - Washington won all five games, scoring 37 runs, and bailing Redding out each time. It has been a pure case of Baseball Roulette, and it is why we can play at such a short price when the lineups are such a mismatch.
The Rangers are growing in confidence, and will get Milton Bradley back into the lineup tonight. A market that is slow to pick up on their improvements leaves us with a bargain.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Texas Rangers
Washington Nationals OFF
OFF
-117
9
-120 -112
9
-125
Cardinals (RL) at Boston (RL) Jun 20 2008 7:05PM
PICK: Boston (RL)
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 6* BOSTON Run Line over ST. LOUIS
In the first cycle of Inter-League play this season we twice went to the well with these Red Sox at 6* Ratings for Run Line plays against Milwaukee. They brought both home, and the run the past four seasons at home in Inter-League play is now 20-10 as -1.5. That is quite a statement about not only the quality of the team, but also how difficult Fenway Park can be for opponents that are not accustomed to playing in these confines. Tonight we expect more of the same, and the fact that we can get an underdog return takes this to a high level again.
The Cardinal offense is taking on water without Albert Pujols; it was just going to be a mater of time. Only once in their last seven games were they able to score more than three runs, and in five of those contests were held to two or less. The 0-3 home collar vs. Kansas City leading up to tonight was an outright embarrassment, with only four runs scored throughout that entire series. Now they have to step way up in class here, and we do mean way up - in a rather remarkable scheduling layout, Milwaukee is the only team with a winning record that they have played on the road all season. And over the past month, 25 of 28 games have come against teams that currently sport losing records.
The marketplace rarely evaluates such scheduling matters properly, because they are so rare. That is one of our keys to getting such good value tonight, and the other is the 8-2/3.77 of Kyle Lohse, which includes a current run of 5-0/2.03. Nice numbers, of course, but naturally they have come against weak competition (of the 121 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings this season, he checks in at #113 in terms of difficulty of batters faced). The bottom line is that his stuff is simply not good enough to maintain the current pace very long, and we believe this is the ideal time to step in. For a guy that supposedly brings such great current form the confidence level is not going to be all that high - he has worked to an 0-3/6.49 in his career against the Red Sox, and also to a 5.04 in all road games this season. But best of all is that fact that he threw a season-high of 116 pitches in beating Philadelphia in his last outing. He has made 15 starts the last three seasons after throwing 105 pitches or more, and it has been an ugly 6.92 over 80.2 innings in those games.
The challenge for Lohse is made more difficult by the return of Kevin Youkilis for Boston tonight, and the slumping St. Louis offense runs into its own problems against Tim Wakefield, who has worked to a 2.17 tune over his last tour starts, lasting 29 innings in that span, and posting a solid ratio of more strikeouts (23) than hits allowed (19). As always, he brings an advantage with his knuckler against a lineup that lacks experience against the pitcher (Troy Glaus and Adam Kennedy are the only Cardinals with any track records, and they are a combined .220 over 50 at-bats). And with all key arms rested and ready from the bullpen, the latter innings do not give anything away either.
PICK: Minnesota Twins
Your pick will be graded at: -113 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* MINNESOTA over ARIZONA
The Twins are playing much better baseball than the Diamondbacks right now, Scott Baker is better than Randy Johnson, and the home team has all key arms rested and ready from an outstanding bullpen. So given the dominance of American League home teams over their N.L. counterparts in Inter-League play this season, why is this one being priced so low? It shows that reputations still matter in the marketplace. Even when they no longer have merit.
Randy Johnson managed to put quite a good run together in late May, showing the guile that he still has, and what he can do when all of the pieces fall together. But in his last two outings he became a 44-year old pitcher again, getting knocked around by the Pirates and Royals, two uninspiring offenses. Snapping back is anything but an automatic, and we might even seem him drop to an even lower level. It must be noted that while his 4.76 ERA for the full season places him squarely as a below-average pitcher, it has also come against some weak competition - of the 121 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings this season, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #115. The bottom line? There is not all that much there, and the same can be said of the team behind him. Arizona is simply the best of a weak bunch in the N.L. West, with teams from that division now 35 games under .500 vs. outside competition.
Scott Baker?s 2-2/3.71 does not raise a lot of eyebrows, and that works in our favor. His command has been outstanding, with a terrific ratio of 42 strikeouts vs. only nine hits allowed, and in terms of consistency, note that he has only allowed more than three runs once, a windy night in Texas in which Minnesota out-slugged the Rangers 12-6. We certainly do not hold that game against him. He is more than capable of keeping up that form against an Arizona offense that lacks patience (only two teams have more strikeouts), and also confidence away from Chase Field. So we are absolutely buying in at the right time with him, and do not be surprised if it is the first of many such investments to come.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Arizona Diamondbacks
Minnesota Twins OFF
OFF
8
-111 -110
8
-113 -105
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 2008 7:10PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 8.5 Belmont
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 5* HOUSTON/TAMPA BAY Under
Last week we wrote a couple of columns concerning Roy Oswalt, the first calling for him to be on an up-tick following his slow start, with a bullpen session and the advice of Lance Berkman leading to a turn-around. And the second came after we lost a 6* Under play with him against the Yankees, a game in which he would have left trailing only 3-0 in the 6th inning if not for a single bobble by Miguel Tejada on a routine force-out at second base, but ended up getting charged with seven earned runs because the scoring rules of baseball could not give Tejada an error on that play. So what does it all mean here? There is still a notion of Oswalt being in a correction mode, but the fact that Sunday?s box score ended up looking as bad as it did means that the value is excellent here. And with Matt Garza bringing value from his own misleading numbers, we have a great fit here.
Garza?s 5-3/4.06 for the full season does not even come close to measuring what we see from him. First, note that the ERA goes to 3.41 after he returned from that April injury, one that severely limited him in his first two starts (he sat out 17 days after those poor showings). Second, note that the numbers have been produced against some most difficult competition - of the 121 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings so far this season, he checks in at #2. Third, take a look at this 4-0/2.19 from this mound. Then take a second look, and note that the sparkling numbers have come despite facing the Red Sox, Yankees, Marlins and Rangers, four offenses that pack a lot of punch.
We are not supposed to be seeing full 9?s for this one, but that is what happens when each side of the equation is under-valued. And with neither offense anything special right now, there is little fear of the kind of big innings that could cause difficulty for our purposes.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays OFF
OFF
8.5
-150 -110
8.5
-145 -115
Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 20 2008 7:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 8 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 5* TORONTO/PITTSBURGH Under
It is absolutely no secret that Roy Halladay is good; his career marks and current 3.09 ERA through 107.2 innings, a span in which he has walked only 13 batters, is plenty of evidence for the marketplace to see. But there is still not a realization as to just how good he is. Having the statistics that he has are one thing, but to have compiled them against the 3rd most difficult slate of hitters of any pitcher in the sport (of the 121 that have worked at least 60 innings so far), is rather remarkable. Now he gets a chance to not only step down in class here, but also to face a team that has precious little experience against him - Doug Mentkiewicz is the only projected Pirate starter that has more than four career at-bats. Dial Halladay up for another strong outing in this one, and with all key arms rested and ready in a solid Blue Jay bullpen the windows remain shut for the latter innings as well.
But while Halladay is still under-valued because of that schedule difficulty, Zach Duke is also a fit for our purposes. Duke gets little respect because his stuff is not explosive - he only has 32 strikeouts in 85 innings. But he is working the strike zone well (24 walks), and is the kind of finesse lefty that can cause major problems against an opponent that has not seen him before. That will be the case with a struggling Toronto offense, with only David Eckstein having at least 10 career at-bats among the projected starters. He has worked to a 3.96 tune against non-division opponents, an example of how that style comes into play, and he has gone at least six full innings nine times in his last 10 starts. the only failure? Against a Cub lineup that was getting their fourth look of the season against him, an offense that has been one of MLB?s best against left-handers. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have been one of the worst, and it shows again here.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Toronto Blue Jays
Pittsburgh Pirates OFF
OFF
-152
8
100 -151
8
-105
Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals Jun 20 2008 7:35PM
PICK: Texas Rangers
Your pick will be graded at: -117 Sportsbook
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 4* TEXAS over WASHINGTON
An awfully low price here to back the far better offense, and to fully appreciate the gap look at it this way - should a draft be held this morning going position-by-position across the field, a case could be made that catcher Jesus Flores would be the only National that would get picked over his Ranger counterparts (and even that is a clsoe call, since the current form of Flores at the plate may not last). So with Kevin Millwood showing that he is back to full health (has worked six full innings in every start since coming off of the DL, including that win over the Mets in Shea in his last outing), we have a bargain price range here.
Our value key comes from the 6-3 record of Tim Redding, a rather good mark when toiling for a team that is a dismal 29-45. But note that Redding has been most fortunate. How about this for a baseball pendulum - despite pitching for the worst offensive team in the National League, he actually leads all N.L. starters in run support, getting a nifty 6.0 per outing. Naturally, that can not last. And even more natural is the fact that it has led to a misleading record that significantly impacts this line. Consider his last five starts - a 5.97 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP, with six home runs allowed in only 28.2 innings. If you do that with the N.L.?s worst offense behind you what is the bottom line? An 0-5? Maybe a 1-4? Not even close - Washington won all five games, scoring 37 runs, and bailing Redding out each time. It has been a pure case of Baseball Roulette, and it is why we can play at such a short price when the lineups are such a mismatch.
The Rangers are growing in confidence, and will get Milton Bradley back into the lineup tonight. A market that is slow to pick up on their improvements leaves us with a bargain.
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Texas Rangers
Washington Nationals OFF
OFF
-117
9
-120 -112
9
-125
Cardinals (RL) at Boston (RL) Jun 20 2008 7:05PM
PICK: Boston (RL)
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: Five for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 6* BOSTON Run Line over ST. LOUIS
In the first cycle of Inter-League play this season we twice went to the well with these Red Sox at 6* Ratings for Run Line plays against Milwaukee. They brought both home, and the run the past four seasons at home in Inter-League play is now 20-10 as -1.5. That is quite a statement about not only the quality of the team, but also how difficult Fenway Park can be for opponents that are not accustomed to playing in these confines. Tonight we expect more of the same, and the fact that we can get an underdog return takes this to a high level again.
The Cardinal offense is taking on water without Albert Pujols; it was just going to be a mater of time. Only once in their last seven games were they able to score more than three runs, and in five of those contests were held to two or less. The 0-3 home collar vs. Kansas City leading up to tonight was an outright embarrassment, with only four runs scored throughout that entire series. Now they have to step way up in class here, and we do mean way up - in a rather remarkable scheduling layout, Milwaukee is the only team with a winning record that they have played on the road all season. And over the past month, 25 of 28 games have come against teams that currently sport losing records.
The marketplace rarely evaluates such scheduling matters properly, because they are so rare. That is one of our keys to getting such good value tonight, and the other is the 8-2/3.77 of Kyle Lohse, which includes a current run of 5-0/2.03. Nice numbers, of course, but naturally they have come against weak competition (of the 121 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings this season, he checks in at #113 in terms of difficulty of batters faced). The bottom line is that his stuff is simply not good enough to maintain the current pace very long, and we believe this is the ideal time to step in. For a guy that supposedly brings such great current form the confidence level is not going to be all that high - he has worked to an 0-3/6.49 in his career against the Red Sox, and also to a 5.04 in all road games this season. But best of all is that fact that he threw a season-high of 116 pitches in beating Philadelphia in his last outing. He has made 15 starts the last three seasons after throwing 105 pitches or more, and it has been an ugly 6.92 over 80.2 innings in those games.
The challenge for Lohse is made more difficult by the return of Kevin Youkilis for Boston tonight, and the slumping St. Louis offense runs into its own problems against Tim Wakefield, who has worked to a 2.17 tune over his last tour starts, lasting 29 innings in that span, and posting a solid ratio of more strikeouts (23) than hits allowed (19). As always, he brings an advantage with his knuckler against a lineup that lacks experience against the pitcher (Troy Glaus and Adam Kennedy are the only Cardinals with any track records, and they are a combined .220 over 50 at-bats). And with all key arms rested and ready from the bullpen, the latter innings do not give anything away either.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Benjamin Lee Eckstein "Mr Chalk"
Ben Lee had no play on Thursday.
For Friday Mr Chalk living up to his name and is going with the highest vig on the board with the A's -$180/Marlins.
Mr Chalk is 2-0 for the week and 37-26 -$650 for the year.
Ben Lee had no play on Thursday.
For Friday Mr Chalk living up to his name and is going with the highest vig on the board with the A's -$180/Marlins.
Mr Chalk is 2-0 for the week and 37-26 -$650 for the year.