Friday Service Plays 6/6/08

[the duke]

GamblersWorld


TIP OF THE DAY

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees

Prediction: New York Yankees

Current Line: -200 Over/Under: 9.5 Reason: The New York Yankees will be trying to extend a winning streak on Friday when they take on the Kansas City Royals at Yankee Stadium. The Royals will give the ball to starter Kyle Davies in this one. Righthander Davies is 1-0 this season with a 1.80 ERA. Meanwhile, it'll be Darrell Rasner who starts for the Yankees. Righthander Rasner is 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA so far this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Yankees listed as 200-moneyline favorites versus the Royals, while the game's total is sitting at 9½. The Royals lost 6-2 to the White Sox as a +155 underdog in Thursday's series finale. The game's eight runs went as a PUSH against the posted over/under (8). Mark Teahen homered and finished 2-for-4 at the plate for the Royals. Gil Meche gave up five runs off seven hits over 5 2-3 innings in the loss. The Yankees scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to defeat the Blue Jays 9-8 as -170 favorites in the rubber match on Thursday. The game's 17 runs sailed OVER the day's posted over/under (8.5). Wilson Betemit cracked a two-run homer and Jason Giambi also went deep for the Yankees. Kyle Farnsworth tossed the ninth and was given credit for the win. Current streak: Kansas City has lost 3 straight games. New York has won 2 straight games. Team records: Kansas City: 23-37 SU New York: 30-30 SU Kansas City most recently: When playing on Friday are 4-6 Before playing NY Yankees are 4-6 After playing Chi White Sox are 3-7 After a loss are 1-9 New York most recently: When playing on Friday are 7-3 Before playing Kansas City are 7-3 After playing Toronto are 6-4 After a win are 7-3 A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing NY Yankees The total has gone OVER in 9 of Kansas City's last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees Kansas City is 5-20 SU in their last 25 games when playing NY Yankees Kansas City is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City NY Yankees are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Kansas City The total has gone OVER in 9 of NY Yankees's last 11 games when playing at home against Kansas City

 

[the duke]

Bob Balfe


Major League Baseball
Rays -130 over Rangers
Kazmir/Padilla

 

[the duke]

LT Profits


Baltimore Orioles +160

Now we have a lot of respect for what Shaun Marcum of the Toronto Blue Jays has done this season, but the Baltimore Orioles seem to ooze value at this price here.

Now we realize that Brian Burres has been plagued by the home run ball in his last two starts, but he did allow three earned runs or less in six of his previous seven outings, and he also tossed seven scoreless innings the last time he pitched in Toronto, so he is certainly capable of getting himself straightened out here. Besides, at the earliest hint of trouble, Baltimore always has a quality bullpen to fall back on, as they rank third in the American League with a 3.18 ERA.

Now we like Marcum a lot, but even we must wonder if he has pitched over his head to this point, with a fantastic 0.94 WHIP in 78.2 innings. After all, Marcum does not blow people away and he often pitches to contact, and while he has been vintage Maddux-like in keeping the ball off of the fat part of the bat, is he really this good or is a correction in order? Besides, the Jays may be a bit fragile after that devastating loss to the Yankees yesterday, when they blew an early 7-2 lead and a two-run lead with two outs and nobody on with their great closer B.J. Ryan on the hill in the ninth inning.

That was they type of loss that could have some residual effect for a game or two, and given that the Orioles have been surprisingly competitive thanks to some great pitching, they get the call at this rather inflated price.

Orioles +160


Chicago Cubs +105

The Chicago Cubs have the best record in baseball after winning for the 10th time in 11 games in the series opener here last night, and they get the call again as small underdogs vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.

The Cubs are now 39-22, yet they find themselves as dogs to a 28-32 Dodger team here. That probably has to do with Sean Gallagher taking this start for Chicago, but he has actually allowed three runs or less in three of his last four starts, including possibly the best start of his brief career vs. these Dodgers in Chicago, where he allowed one run on just four hits in seven innings. Now that also happened to be the longest start of his career, but he has the support of a Cubs bullpen that ranks third in the National League with a 3.19 pen ERA.

Besides, Hiroki Kuroda seems like an unreliable favorite in this spot. Kuroda is just 2-5 overall, and he was lit up for six earned runs while surrendering nine baserunners in just 2.2 innings vs. the New York Mets last start. Also, the Dodgers have lost five of their last six games overall with three of those losses coming here at home.

We don?t expect Los Angeles to suddenly get well vs. this blazing-hot Cubs team.

Cubs +105

 

[the duke]

Steam On-Line

Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, June 06, 2008
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5000* BASEBALL LATE STEAMER WINNER
LA Angels w/Lackey -110 10:05 EST

 

[the duke]

Wildcat

Houston Astros

 

[the duke]

Money Lock Of The Day


Junior - ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

 

[the duke]

WUNDERDOG

MLB
Game: Cincinnati at Florida (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Florida -127 (moneyline)

Potential has a way of holding lines down and Johny Cueto has been instrumental in doing just that. He opened the season with a one-run 10-strikeout performance and has been inside the oddsmakers heads since. What has followed is much less than ordinary. Cueto has worked 61.2 innings since that first start allowing 68 hits, and 13 HR's as well as posting an ERA of nearly six runs a game. The Reds have only won 10 of 32 road games and more importantly are 0-5 with Cueto towing the rubber on the road. Andrew Miller had a nine ERA through April, but has since settled down nicely pitching to a 2.65 ERA with nine less hits allowed to innings pitched. This line is subject to the Cueto factor and is much too low. The value here is on the Marlins.

 

[the duke]

The Hitman

Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, June 06, 2008
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5000 LARGE BASEBALL WINNER
Milwaukee w/Sheets -134 9:05 EST

 

[MLBKING]

JEFFERSONSPORTS

MLB FRIDAY
SAN FRANCISCO-108
MILWAUKEE-134
METS-150
MINNESOTA+170

 

[MLBKING]

Brandon Lang

FRIDAY

15 Dime - Brewers

5 Dime - Chisox Run Line

FREE - Tampa Bay D'Rays

 

[MLBKING]

Ross Benjamin MLB 15*

Play: Florida ?131
--------------------------------
Wise Owl

Play: Toronto -168

 

[MLBKING]

The Experts Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, June 06, 2008
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ULTIMATE EXPERTS BASEBALL CRUSHER
San Francisco w/Lincecum -108 7:35 EST

 

[the duke]

Dave Malinsky


Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers
4* PICK: Chicago Cubs

It should not be a surprise that we are showing up here, and now that the markets have driven the Dodgers as high as we are likely to see, it is time to step in.

We cashed an easy ticket with the Mets against Hiroki Kuroda on Sunday, noting that his stuff is decent, not great, and that once the usual advantages of the first pass through the league took place hitters would begin getting much better reads. New York was the first team to get a second look against him, and he could not make it out of the 3rd inning, allowing six runs on seven hits, including home runs to Carlos Beltran and Ryan Church, and not getting a single strikeout of the 17 batters that he faced (nine of them reached via a hit or a walk). Now the Cubs become the second team to get a second look, and while he did carry a shutout into the 7th in the first go-round at Wrigley, it was not as good as that may sound. First-pitch temperature was 42 degrees, making it ideal for a pitcher, and yet six different Cubs got a hit against him, and Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Theriot and Ronny Cedeno all had a hit and drew a walk. Also one of the two position players that did not get a hit was Mike Fontenot, who will not start tonight.

The bottom line? Kuroda is an over-rated item, particularly when it makes a Los Angeles team that is 9-18 over the past 27 games (call it the ?Post-Furcal? cycle) the favorites against a side with the best record in the Major League?s. Add in the woeful tally of the N.L. West against outside competition, which has now run to a stunning 38 games under .500, and the class difference is even more clear. And Sean Gallagher gives us more than enough to take advantage.

Gallagher lost nearly 40 pounds in the off-season, and it has shown not only in increased velocity, but also in terms of stamina as well. He threw 111 pitches in beating the Dodgers at Wrigley two starts back, and then 112 against Colorado in his last outing, a game in which he struck out eight Rockies while not walking a single batter. His task is made easier by the confidence of the entire Cub team behind him, including an under-rated defense that is #2 in the National League on our best set of ratings, and the latter stages are in excellent hands with Carlos Marmol (2.35 with 18 holds) and Kerry Wood (2.70 with 17 saves). Note that while Marmol has worked back-to-back nights, he has only thrown 16 pitches in that span and does not carry a fatigue rating

 

[the duke]

Lockline

Toronto
Houston
La Angels
Milwaukee
Washington under

 

[MLBKING]

The Silver Fox
FRIDAY'S 2* SELECTION
(2008 MLB -- 42-32 ~ +14 Units)
2* DBacks

 

[MLBKING]

Gavazzi

3 under balt
2 under bost
2 over sd
2 under fla

 

[MLBKING]

FLORIDA MARLINS



The Cincinnati Reds are horrible on the road, as is their starting pitcher tonight and they will go down hard against these Florida Marlins. I guarantee it! Having just dropped three of four in Philly, the Reds are on a 4-15 road slide and are batting a mere .247 on the highway. Tonight Cincy will trot out young Johnny Cueto, who has been decent at home but putrid away from Great American Ball Park this year. In five road starts, he is 0-4 with a 7.98 ERA. He?s allowed 33 hits and 21 earned runs in 23 2/3 road innings while allowing the opposition to bat a robust .337. Look for the hot Hanley Ramirez, who has homered three times in the last two games, and this Marlins team that averages five runs per game against righty starters, to hit Cueto hard.

Florida, which beat the Reds three of four at Dolphin Stadium last year, is back home after a difficult road trip. But it was a short flight down from Atlanta last night as these Fish will be ready to get a win streak going at home, where they have won five of their last six. Andrew Miller toes the rubber tonight and he tossed seven shutout innings against the Diamondbacks. The tall lefty has logged at least five innings in five of his last six starts and sports a 3.24 ERA in his last three starts overall. He?ll be followed by a Marlin pen that has a 3.35 home ERA while the Reds? relievers sport a 4.85 ERA on the road. Dan Uggla continues to swing a hot bat while Ken Griffey is batting a mere .229 in 21 games at Dolphin Stadium. The Reds do not play good baseball on the road and they won?t again this evening as the Marlins get the job done is this absolute guarantee winner!


Stu Feiner

 

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William Kidd Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, June 06, 2008
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QUADRUPLE BASEBALL HOME RUN WINNER
Toronto w/Marcum -168 7:05 EST

 

[MLBKING]

Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, June 06, 2008
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TOP RATED BASEBALL SURE THING OF THE DAY
Detroit w/Verlander -150 7:05 EST