Wunderdog
ncaa football
Game: Nebraska at Colorado (Friday 11/23 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Nebraska +4
Colorado's had an up-and down season. They put together back-to-back stinkers early in the year to Arizona State and Florida State but then turned around and beat Miami Ohio by 42 and shocked Oklahoma. They have lost four of their last five games, allowing 35.6 points per game. Nebraska has also had an up-and-down season, starting 4-1 and then losing five in a row before beating Kansas State 73-31 last week. So, these teams aren't that different. The thing that scares us about backing the team laying points here is that they are scoring just 24 points per game on the year (19.8 at home) while giving up 27.5 per game at home and over 37 per game in their last three games. This defense is crummy and getting worse. And, the offense, under a freshman QB, doesn't have the firepower to put up a lot. Nebraska's defense is also bad but they have some momentum. Teams allowing 35+ points per game coming off a 21+ point win are 34-8 ATS the past ten seasons. And the Buffs are 0-8 ATS when coming off a road game under Dan Hawkins. We think Nebraska has at least an equal shot at winning this game so we'll back them with the points cushion.
Game: Mississippi at Mississippi State (Friday 11/23 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Mississippi +6.5
If you look at the records, this looks like a no-brainer win for Miss State. They are 6-5 and have a couple quality wins vs. league foes while Ole Miss was shut-out during SEC play with nothing to show in the win column. But we actually feel that the difference between these teams is not that great. Ole Miss has been competitive all season long. They were within 10 of LSU with under three minutes to go, lost to Florida by 6, Alabama by 3, Missouri by 13, and Auburn by 14. They, for the most part, have played great and been very competitive. Miss State is 1-8 ATS in home games off a loss to a conference rival the last three years, and 5-16 ATS in home games after gaining 100 yards or less. They are also just 5-15 ATS after a game where they have had a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points returning 8+ starters on offense have covered 65% of the time (65-35) when pitted against a defense that has returned five or fewer starters. We will ride the dog in this one, as the intense rivalry is the equalizer.
Game: Toledo at Bowling Green (Friday 11/23 2:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toledo +7
This line started at 4.5 and has climbed to the magic 7 number as the money pours in on Bowling Green. BG has won three in a row in convincing fashion while Toledo is off a 21 point loss. But, we think this is an overreaction to one game for Toledo. That loss was a tough road game against a better opponent. Prior to that loss, they had won three straight SU and ATS, averaging 55 points per game. This is a big-time offense that can surpass what Bowling Green can do. Defense is another matter as BG has a clear advantage there. We just feel 7 points is too much considering BG is 1-10 ATS in their last eleven home games. We like the Rockets plus the points.
Game: Boise State at Hawaii (Friday 11/23 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Boise State +3
There is obviously a lot at stake in this game between two 10-win teams. The outright conference Championship will be decided as well as a potential BCS berth. Boise State is no stranger to the big stage. They have a career 52-3 mark in WAC games and this team is stocked year after year. The last three weeks they have really turned it up a notch, winning by a combined 152-21 margin. Outside of their game vs. Nevada and loss to Washington, the Broncos have not been challenged. If you take out that game with Nevada they are allowing only 13.4 ppg. The big question mark for Hawaii is the status and effectiveness of QB Colt Brennan. He was forced to sit out almost the entire game last week with a concussion. Boise State has not had trouble putting away good offensive teams, as they are 18-4 ATS in their last 24 games vs. teams that average 425+ yards per game. Meanwhile Hawaii has struggled against teams that average 6.25+ yards per play as they are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. such opponents. Hawaii has been an escape artist this season, as they have had four near-misses, winning by margins of 1, 2, 7 and another game in OT. Boise State is 25-8 ATS the past decade vs. winning teams including 15-4 ATS vs. teams scoring 31+ ppg. They have better defense, just as much offense, and we expect they do what they do in big games - win!
ncaa football
Game: Nebraska at Colorado (Friday 11/23 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Nebraska +4
Colorado's had an up-and down season. They put together back-to-back stinkers early in the year to Arizona State and Florida State but then turned around and beat Miami Ohio by 42 and shocked Oklahoma. They have lost four of their last five games, allowing 35.6 points per game. Nebraska has also had an up-and-down season, starting 4-1 and then losing five in a row before beating Kansas State 73-31 last week. So, these teams aren't that different. The thing that scares us about backing the team laying points here is that they are scoring just 24 points per game on the year (19.8 at home) while giving up 27.5 per game at home and over 37 per game in their last three games. This defense is crummy and getting worse. And, the offense, under a freshman QB, doesn't have the firepower to put up a lot. Nebraska's defense is also bad but they have some momentum. Teams allowing 35+ points per game coming off a 21+ point win are 34-8 ATS the past ten seasons. And the Buffs are 0-8 ATS when coming off a road game under Dan Hawkins. We think Nebraska has at least an equal shot at winning this game so we'll back them with the points cushion.
Game: Mississippi at Mississippi State (Friday 11/23 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Mississippi +6.5
If you look at the records, this looks like a no-brainer win for Miss State. They are 6-5 and have a couple quality wins vs. league foes while Ole Miss was shut-out during SEC play with nothing to show in the win column. But we actually feel that the difference between these teams is not that great. Ole Miss has been competitive all season long. They were within 10 of LSU with under three minutes to go, lost to Florida by 6, Alabama by 3, Missouri by 13, and Auburn by 14. They, for the most part, have played great and been very competitive. Miss State is 1-8 ATS in home games off a loss to a conference rival the last three years, and 5-16 ATS in home games after gaining 100 yards or less. They are also just 5-15 ATS after a game where they have had a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points returning 8+ starters on offense have covered 65% of the time (65-35) when pitted against a defense that has returned five or fewer starters. We will ride the dog in this one, as the intense rivalry is the equalizer.
Game: Toledo at Bowling Green (Friday 11/23 2:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toledo +7
This line started at 4.5 and has climbed to the magic 7 number as the money pours in on Bowling Green. BG has won three in a row in convincing fashion while Toledo is off a 21 point loss. But, we think this is an overreaction to one game for Toledo. That loss was a tough road game against a better opponent. Prior to that loss, they had won three straight SU and ATS, averaging 55 points per game. This is a big-time offense that can surpass what Bowling Green can do. Defense is another matter as BG has a clear advantage there. We just feel 7 points is too much considering BG is 1-10 ATS in their last eleven home games. We like the Rockets plus the points.
Game: Boise State at Hawaii (Friday 11/23 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Boise State +3
There is obviously a lot at stake in this game between two 10-win teams. The outright conference Championship will be decided as well as a potential BCS berth. Boise State is no stranger to the big stage. They have a career 52-3 mark in WAC games and this team is stocked year after year. The last three weeks they have really turned it up a notch, winning by a combined 152-21 margin. Outside of their game vs. Nevada and loss to Washington, the Broncos have not been challenged. If you take out that game with Nevada they are allowing only 13.4 ppg. The big question mark for Hawaii is the status and effectiveness of QB Colt Brennan. He was forced to sit out almost the entire game last week with a concussion. Boise State has not had trouble putting away good offensive teams, as they are 18-4 ATS in their last 24 games vs. teams that average 425+ yards per game. Meanwhile Hawaii has struggled against teams that average 6.25+ yards per play as they are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. such opponents. Hawaii has been an escape artist this season, as they have had four near-misses, winning by margins of 1, 2, 7 and another game in OT. Boise State is 25-8 ATS the past decade vs. winning teams including 15-4 ATS vs. teams scoring 31+ ppg. They have better defense, just as much offense, and we expect they do what they do in big games - win!
