Friday Service Plays
- Thread starter the duke
- Start date
Thanks to all of you contributors, I really want to say how much it is appreciated.
Husky, taipans, goldengreek, the duke, and if I missed anyone you too.
Great job and if we ever meet at a MJ's event the first couple are on me AND YOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK.
:00hour :00hour
Husky, taipans, goldengreek, the duke, and if I missed anyone you too.
Great job and if we ever meet at a MJ's event the first couple are on me AND YOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK.
:00hour :00hour
Brandon Lang
Brandon Lang
Brandon Lang :00hour
FRIDAY
25 DIME
BOISE ST
If your man has 2 1/2 you buy the half and make sure you get 3. Make sure you get +3 no matter what
5 DIME
Nebraska
Bowling Green
Texas A&M
FREE PICK
Seattle Sonics - (For analysis see daily video)
Note:
Hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving. Lets get another winning day.
Brandon Lang
Brandon Lang :00hour
FRIDAY
25 DIME
BOISE ST
If your man has 2 1/2 you buy the half and make sure you get 3. Make sure you get +3 no matter what
5 DIME
Nebraska
Bowling Green
Texas A&M
FREE PICK
Seattle Sonics - (For analysis see daily video)
Note:
Hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving. Lets get another winning day.
Red Sheet
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
NOVEMBER 24, 2007 VOLUME 39, NUMBER 13
CENTRAL FLORIDA 61 - Utep 30
(2:00 EST) -- Line opened at CentralFlorida minus 17, and is now minus
18. Quite a job O'Leary has done with the Knights, who can clinch a spot in the C-USA title
game with a win here. Behind the running of Smith, who ranks 2nd in the land (1,945 yds,
177 ypg, 5.9 ypr, 25 TDs), UCF has averaged 40.7 ppg in 10 of its 11 games to date, with
only South Florida holding them in check. But SoFla ranks 18th in scoring "D", vs the likes
of Auburn, WestVa, Louisville, Cincy, etc, while the Miners of Utep bring the nation's 109th
scoring "D" into this match. Five straight losses for Utep, while ranking 101st in rushing "D".
Incentive, and a +67? pt ATS edge at home. It all adds up to romp.
RATING: CENTRAL FLORIDA 89
OHIO U 34 - Miami-Ohio 20
(2:00) -- Line opened at Ohio minus 2?, and is still minus 2?. We were
figuring a pick-em spread in this contest, so when it came in at 2? on Sunday Night, we
backed off for the time being. However, respected sources feel that the chalk weight shouldn't
result in tabling this selection. The fact of the matter is that OU needs this game for a 6-6
season, while Redhawks have already clinched the MAC East, & are fully focused on their
conference title game with Central next week. And to make this even juicier, note that the
Bobcats have had 17 days in which to nurse their wounds. Week ago, Miami posted zero
offensive TDs, while McRae (18 TDs this year) ran wild year ago.
RATING: OHIO U 89
SOUTH CAROLINA 27 - Clemson 20
(7:00) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 2?, and is still minus 2?.
No question about it, the Tigers of Clemson are one of the streakiest teams in the nation.
Year ago, they seemed the match of just about any team in the land, until being upset by
VaTech on a Thursday Night, & then proceeded to limp home with a 1-3 SU record, along
with an 0-4 spread run, by 14.6 ppg ATS. Last week's loss to BostonCollege was just the
latest crushing blow, as Clemson entered on a definite high, but managed just a single TD
over the game's final 53:20. Note a 41-23 loss to VaTech this year, directly on heels of a
13-3 loss to GaTech. Spurrier's squad is rested, & punted just once in LY's meeting.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 89
Cincinnati 43 - SYRACUSE 14
(7:15) -- Line opened at Cincinnati minus 19, and is now minus 20. Is there
a more predictable team in the land, than the 'Cuse, especially in the role of home dog?
Opening with great fanfare, it took about a quarter of game #1 (Washington) to realize that
the pre-season hype was just that, & nothing more. As noted earlier, their record as home
dogs this season is 0-5 ATS, by an average score of 43-14. Sure, the Orange home schedule
is among the toughest in the nation, but competitiveness just isn't in their vocabulary.
The Bearcats have climbed as high as 15th in the nation, have 38 takeaways, & are led by
heady Mauk, who ranks 15th among quarterbacks. Romper!
RATING: CINCINNATI 88
PITTSBURGH 38 - Miami 3
(8:30 Monday) -- Line opened at Pittsburgh minus 16, and is still minus 16.
Catching the Steelers off an embarrassing loss is hardly what the winless Dolphins needed
in their quest to snap their franchise-record of 13 straight losses. Sure, Miami has been
competitive the past 3 weeks, with a pair of 13-10 setbacks, & then leading the Eagles in
the 2nd half, before finally falling, 17-7. But note that Miami posted only 9 FDs, with its lone
TD coming on a kick return. Hardly the credentials to take into this game with the angry
Steelers, who rank a mere 1st in total, rushing, passing, & scoring "D", along with the 2nd
best overland game in the NFL. Double digit dogs are juicy, but not in this setup.
RATING: PITTSBURGH STEELERS 88
New Orleans 23 - CAROLINA 13
(1:00) -- Line opened at NewOrleans minus 3, and is still minus 3. At the
moment, neither of these squads is anything to write home about. The Saints completely
turned their anemic start around, with a 4-game run, led by Brees, who threw for 11 TDs,
with only a single INT over that span. But down to earth the past couple of weeks, as he
was just 3/4. And Bush has hardly been the hoped-for game breaker. But NewOrleans
normally plays its best away from the 'Dome, & has covered its last 2 RGs by 17? & 19 pts.
The Panthers have dropped 4 straight, rank a lowly 28th on offense (Saints rank 6th), &
have Vinny throwing for them. And you can throw in revenge motive.
RATING: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Vanderbilt, Tulane, UtahSt, Kansas - NFL: NwEngland, Oakland, Tennessee
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Kansas (Pick to -2); NCSt (Pick to -2); BowlingGn (-4? to
-6); Kentucky (-1? to -3); Idaho (-1 to -2?); OklaSt (+14 to +12?); CentFla (-17 to -18); Cincinnati (-19 to -
20); Memphis (-6? to -7?); NoIllinois (+9? to +8?); KansasSt (+1 to Pick); So Miss (-13 to -14); Fla Int'nal
(+12? to +11?) - NFL: Minnesota (+9 to +7); Atlanta (+12? to +11?); SanDiego (-8? to -9?). - TIME
CHANGES: WestVa/UConn: now 3:30; CentFla/Utep: 2:00; Kansas/Mo: 8:00; NoCaro/Duke: 12:30; Vandy/
Wake: 2:00; Syracuse/Cincy: 7:15; SoCaro/Clemson: 7:00; Kentucky/Tenn: 1:30; Auburn/Alabama: 8:00;
Fla/FlaSt: 5:00; Fresno/KansSt: 3:30; Wash/WashSt: 7:00; WestMich/Temple: 2:00; BC/Miami: Noon; Virginia/
VaTech: Noon; Stanford/NoDame: 3:30; SanDiegoSt/TCU: 8:00 - NFL: Chicago/Denver: 4:15...
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
NOVEMBER 24, 2007 VOLUME 39, NUMBER 13
CENTRAL FLORIDA 61 - Utep 30
(2:00 EST) -- Line opened at CentralFlorida minus 17, and is now minus
18. Quite a job O'Leary has done with the Knights, who can clinch a spot in the C-USA title
game with a win here. Behind the running of Smith, who ranks 2nd in the land (1,945 yds,
177 ypg, 5.9 ypr, 25 TDs), UCF has averaged 40.7 ppg in 10 of its 11 games to date, with
only South Florida holding them in check. But SoFla ranks 18th in scoring "D", vs the likes
of Auburn, WestVa, Louisville, Cincy, etc, while the Miners of Utep bring the nation's 109th
scoring "D" into this match. Five straight losses for Utep, while ranking 101st in rushing "D".
Incentive, and a +67? pt ATS edge at home. It all adds up to romp.
RATING: CENTRAL FLORIDA 89
OHIO U 34 - Miami-Ohio 20
(2:00) -- Line opened at Ohio minus 2?, and is still minus 2?. We were
figuring a pick-em spread in this contest, so when it came in at 2? on Sunday Night, we
backed off for the time being. However, respected sources feel that the chalk weight shouldn't
result in tabling this selection. The fact of the matter is that OU needs this game for a 6-6
season, while Redhawks have already clinched the MAC East, & are fully focused on their
conference title game with Central next week. And to make this even juicier, note that the
Bobcats have had 17 days in which to nurse their wounds. Week ago, Miami posted zero
offensive TDs, while McRae (18 TDs this year) ran wild year ago.
RATING: OHIO U 89
SOUTH CAROLINA 27 - Clemson 20
(7:00) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 2?, and is still minus 2?.
No question about it, the Tigers of Clemson are one of the streakiest teams in the nation.
Year ago, they seemed the match of just about any team in the land, until being upset by
VaTech on a Thursday Night, & then proceeded to limp home with a 1-3 SU record, along
with an 0-4 spread run, by 14.6 ppg ATS. Last week's loss to BostonCollege was just the
latest crushing blow, as Clemson entered on a definite high, but managed just a single TD
over the game's final 53:20. Note a 41-23 loss to VaTech this year, directly on heels of a
13-3 loss to GaTech. Spurrier's squad is rested, & punted just once in LY's meeting.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 89
Cincinnati 43 - SYRACUSE 14
(7:15) -- Line opened at Cincinnati minus 19, and is now minus 20. Is there
a more predictable team in the land, than the 'Cuse, especially in the role of home dog?
Opening with great fanfare, it took about a quarter of game #1 (Washington) to realize that
the pre-season hype was just that, & nothing more. As noted earlier, their record as home
dogs this season is 0-5 ATS, by an average score of 43-14. Sure, the Orange home schedule
is among the toughest in the nation, but competitiveness just isn't in their vocabulary.
The Bearcats have climbed as high as 15th in the nation, have 38 takeaways, & are led by
heady Mauk, who ranks 15th among quarterbacks. Romper!
RATING: CINCINNATI 88
PITTSBURGH 38 - Miami 3
(8:30 Monday) -- Line opened at Pittsburgh minus 16, and is still minus 16.
Catching the Steelers off an embarrassing loss is hardly what the winless Dolphins needed
in their quest to snap their franchise-record of 13 straight losses. Sure, Miami has been
competitive the past 3 weeks, with a pair of 13-10 setbacks, & then leading the Eagles in
the 2nd half, before finally falling, 17-7. But note that Miami posted only 9 FDs, with its lone
TD coming on a kick return. Hardly the credentials to take into this game with the angry
Steelers, who rank a mere 1st in total, rushing, passing, & scoring "D", along with the 2nd
best overland game in the NFL. Double digit dogs are juicy, but not in this setup.
RATING: PITTSBURGH STEELERS 88
New Orleans 23 - CAROLINA 13
(1:00) -- Line opened at NewOrleans minus 3, and is still minus 3. At the
moment, neither of these squads is anything to write home about. The Saints completely
turned their anemic start around, with a 4-game run, led by Brees, who threw for 11 TDs,
with only a single INT over that span. But down to earth the past couple of weeks, as he
was just 3/4. And Bush has hardly been the hoped-for game breaker. But NewOrleans
normally plays its best away from the 'Dome, & has covered its last 2 RGs by 17? & 19 pts.
The Panthers have dropped 4 straight, rank a lowly 28th on offense (Saints rank 6th), &
have Vinny throwing for them. And you can throw in revenge motive.
RATING: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Vanderbilt, Tulane, UtahSt, Kansas - NFL: NwEngland, Oakland, Tennessee
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Kansas (Pick to -2); NCSt (Pick to -2); BowlingGn (-4? to
-6); Kentucky (-1? to -3); Idaho (-1 to -2?); OklaSt (+14 to +12?); CentFla (-17 to -18); Cincinnati (-19 to -
20); Memphis (-6? to -7?); NoIllinois (+9? to +8?); KansasSt (+1 to Pick); So Miss (-13 to -14); Fla Int'nal
(+12? to +11?) - NFL: Minnesota (+9 to +7); Atlanta (+12? to +11?); SanDiego (-8? to -9?). - TIME
CHANGES: WestVa/UConn: now 3:30; CentFla/Utep: 2:00; Kansas/Mo: 8:00; NoCaro/Duke: 12:30; Vandy/
Wake: 2:00; Syracuse/Cincy: 7:15; SoCaro/Clemson: 7:00; Kentucky/Tenn: 1:30; Auburn/Alabama: 8:00;
Fla/FlaSt: 5:00; Fresno/KansSt: 3:30; Wash/WashSt: 7:00; WestMich/Temple: 2:00; BC/Miami: Noon; Virginia/
VaTech: Noon; Stanford/NoDame: 3:30; SanDiegoSt/TCU: 8:00 - NFL: Chicago/Denver: 4:15...
Confidential Kick-Off!!
11 *VANDERBILT over Wake Forest
Late Score Forecast:
*VANDERBILT 32 - Wake Forest 23
Southern CKO sources report veteran, smartly-coached Vandy has been able to quickly shake off painful 25-24 come-from-ahead loss vs. rival Tennessee (FG kicker missed 3 of 4!) in preparation for "monumental" match vs. Wake Forest. After all, 'Dores become bowl eligible with their 1st non-losing season since 1982 with victory here! We like their chances. Vandy's well-balanced attack, directed by more careful QB Adams (4 TDs, no ints. last 2 games) will do damage vs. penetrable WF defense which has allowed 36 pts. or more in 3 road games in '07. And after facing a challenging trio of gifted, rifle-armed QBs in Tebow, Woodson & Ainge over past 3 weeks, swift, gang-tackling Vandy defense (just 19 ppg in 5 home games) will be prepared for Deacons less-dynamic aerial game generating fewer than 200 ypg (only 10 TDP). Moreover, 'Dores won't be fooled by Grobe's myriad of misdirection plays, having upset Deacons 24-20 in Winston-Salem in '05
10 *UCF over Utep
Late Score Forecast:
*UCF 52 - Utep 24
Hot meets cold in this game, as UCF has won 5 straight, posting a 4-1 spread mark as star RB Kevin Smith rushed for 206 ypg and 14 TDs in that streak. Contrast that success with slumping UTEP, which has exactly the reverse record (0-5 SU, 1-4 vs. the number) and has yielded 45 ppg & 528 ypg in that nosedive. The UTEP defense yields 5.0 ypc and ranks 100th against the run, so "24-K" (Smith), who leads the nation in scoring at 13.6 ppg, figures to continue his productive surge. UCF sr. QB Kyle Israel is also contributing, completing 69% of his passes in the Golden Knights last 5. It will be a raucous crowd at the new Bright House Networks Stadium, where the first 5 games have resulted in 5 of the top 8 all-time crowds for UCF home games.
10 *RICE over Tulsa
Late Score Forecast:
*RICE 37 - Tulsa 38
Realize a win here gives Tulsa a spot in the C-USA championship game, but a victory won't come easily in Houston. Few QBs (if any) are hotter than Rice triggerman Chase Clement, who's thrown for 1112 yards & 12 TDs in the last 3 games. The Owls have put up 43 ppg, and Clement and jr. WR Jarett Dillard have hooked up 33 times in that run, with Dillard catching 2 TD passes in each of the three games. Okay, so Rice doesn't play defense, but that's not exactly Tulsa's forte either. The Golden Hurricane gives up 34 ppg & ranks 104th in total defense this season, and Tulsa has had turnover issues (-8 ratio). Certainly Tulsa QB Paul Smith (3rd in the country in total offense) will do damage, but Clement will trade him TD-for-TD all the way
10 WASHINGTON ST. over *Washington
Late Score Forecast:
WASHINGTON ST. 30-*Washington 24
Admittedly, Washington State's 8-TO nightmare vs. Oregon State was bad enough to prompt a visit from Mike Wallace to see what really happened vs. Beavers. But Pac-10 sources convinced those shenanigans unlikely to occur in heated Apple Cup, where Cougs should be focused to atone for bitter 3-point home loss to U-Dub in '06 that knocked WSU out of bowl picture. Can't blame Cougar "D" for the result vs. OSU, and Bill Doba's stop unit has indeed played much better in second half of season since young 2ndary matured and platoon switched to 3-4 alignment. And no surprise if WSU QB Brink exploits burnable Husky "D" in his final game as a Coug. Meanwhile, UW unreliable as chalk (2-8 last 10 in role) with either Jake Locker or backup Carl Bonnell (just 7 of 19 vs. Cal) at QB.
10 WASHINGTON over *Tampa Bay
Late Score Forecast:
WASHINGTON 20 - *Tampa Bay 13
(Sunday, November 25)
Don't count the Redskins out just yet! Although Washington has lost 3 of its last 4 and relinquished a pole position in the NFC wildcard race, developments in last Sunday's near-miss at Dallas indicate Redskins could still figure somewhere in the playoff mix. In particular, WR Santa Moss (9 catches vs. Cowboys) appears fully recovered from recent heel injury that limited his effectiveness the past month. And the legit deep threat Moss provides is once again giving QB Jason Campbell the confidence to look downfield after being forced to dink and rely on RB Clinton Portis' thrusts in recent weeks. Granted, Tampa Bay opening up some daylight in soft NFC South, but Buc attack remains somewhat limited with young OL often struggling to provide QB Garcia proper pass protection.
TOTALS: OVER (51) in the Houston-Cleveland game--Some way, some how (Josh Cribbs' returns are helping), Cleveland has found a way to go "over" 9-0-1 TY!...UNDER (41) in the Minnesota-N.Y. Giants game--Giants' back seven improving; Vikes much prefer the overland route.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): CINCINNATI (-20) at Syracuse...Bearcats, with their takeaway defense and much-improved offense, too much for limited, downtrodden Syracuse...MEMPHIS (-8) vs. Smu--Tigers have come out of nowhere to enter bowl picture; Mustangs' defense has too little rush, way too little coverage to cool down hot Memphis QB Hankins...NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+8) over Ball State--Prideful Northern still tough to beat in DeKalb despite slew of early-season injuries...TEMPLE (+11) at Western Michigan--Slowly ascending Owls enjoying being back in the MAC, where they're 5-1 vs. the spread in 2007...NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) vs. Minnesota--Somewhere along the line, the Vikings' limited QBing is likely to fail under the pressure of the G-men's pass-rushers
11 *VANDERBILT over Wake Forest
Late Score Forecast:
*VANDERBILT 32 - Wake Forest 23
Southern CKO sources report veteran, smartly-coached Vandy has been able to quickly shake off painful 25-24 come-from-ahead loss vs. rival Tennessee (FG kicker missed 3 of 4!) in preparation for "monumental" match vs. Wake Forest. After all, 'Dores become bowl eligible with their 1st non-losing season since 1982 with victory here! We like their chances. Vandy's well-balanced attack, directed by more careful QB Adams (4 TDs, no ints. last 2 games) will do damage vs. penetrable WF defense which has allowed 36 pts. or more in 3 road games in '07. And after facing a challenging trio of gifted, rifle-armed QBs in Tebow, Woodson & Ainge over past 3 weeks, swift, gang-tackling Vandy defense (just 19 ppg in 5 home games) will be prepared for Deacons less-dynamic aerial game generating fewer than 200 ypg (only 10 TDP). Moreover, 'Dores won't be fooled by Grobe's myriad of misdirection plays, having upset Deacons 24-20 in Winston-Salem in '05
10 *UCF over Utep
Late Score Forecast:
*UCF 52 - Utep 24
Hot meets cold in this game, as UCF has won 5 straight, posting a 4-1 spread mark as star RB Kevin Smith rushed for 206 ypg and 14 TDs in that streak. Contrast that success with slumping UTEP, which has exactly the reverse record (0-5 SU, 1-4 vs. the number) and has yielded 45 ppg & 528 ypg in that nosedive. The UTEP defense yields 5.0 ypc and ranks 100th against the run, so "24-K" (Smith), who leads the nation in scoring at 13.6 ppg, figures to continue his productive surge. UCF sr. QB Kyle Israel is also contributing, completing 69% of his passes in the Golden Knights last 5. It will be a raucous crowd at the new Bright House Networks Stadium, where the first 5 games have resulted in 5 of the top 8 all-time crowds for UCF home games.
10 *RICE over Tulsa
Late Score Forecast:
*RICE 37 - Tulsa 38
Realize a win here gives Tulsa a spot in the C-USA championship game, but a victory won't come easily in Houston. Few QBs (if any) are hotter than Rice triggerman Chase Clement, who's thrown for 1112 yards & 12 TDs in the last 3 games. The Owls have put up 43 ppg, and Clement and jr. WR Jarett Dillard have hooked up 33 times in that run, with Dillard catching 2 TD passes in each of the three games. Okay, so Rice doesn't play defense, but that's not exactly Tulsa's forte either. The Golden Hurricane gives up 34 ppg & ranks 104th in total defense this season, and Tulsa has had turnover issues (-8 ratio). Certainly Tulsa QB Paul Smith (3rd in the country in total offense) will do damage, but Clement will trade him TD-for-TD all the way
10 WASHINGTON ST. over *Washington
Late Score Forecast:
WASHINGTON ST. 30-*Washington 24
Admittedly, Washington State's 8-TO nightmare vs. Oregon State was bad enough to prompt a visit from Mike Wallace to see what really happened vs. Beavers. But Pac-10 sources convinced those shenanigans unlikely to occur in heated Apple Cup, where Cougs should be focused to atone for bitter 3-point home loss to U-Dub in '06 that knocked WSU out of bowl picture. Can't blame Cougar "D" for the result vs. OSU, and Bill Doba's stop unit has indeed played much better in second half of season since young 2ndary matured and platoon switched to 3-4 alignment. And no surprise if WSU QB Brink exploits burnable Husky "D" in his final game as a Coug. Meanwhile, UW unreliable as chalk (2-8 last 10 in role) with either Jake Locker or backup Carl Bonnell (just 7 of 19 vs. Cal) at QB.
10 WASHINGTON over *Tampa Bay
Late Score Forecast:
WASHINGTON 20 - *Tampa Bay 13
(Sunday, November 25)
Don't count the Redskins out just yet! Although Washington has lost 3 of its last 4 and relinquished a pole position in the NFC wildcard race, developments in last Sunday's near-miss at Dallas indicate Redskins could still figure somewhere in the playoff mix. In particular, WR Santa Moss (9 catches vs. Cowboys) appears fully recovered from recent heel injury that limited his effectiveness the past month. And the legit deep threat Moss provides is once again giving QB Jason Campbell the confidence to look downfield after being forced to dink and rely on RB Clinton Portis' thrusts in recent weeks. Granted, Tampa Bay opening up some daylight in soft NFC South, but Buc attack remains somewhat limited with young OL often struggling to provide QB Garcia proper pass protection.
TOTALS: OVER (51) in the Houston-Cleveland game--Some way, some how (Josh Cribbs' returns are helping), Cleveland has found a way to go "over" 9-0-1 TY!...UNDER (41) in the Minnesota-N.Y. Giants game--Giants' back seven improving; Vikes much prefer the overland route.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): CINCINNATI (-20) at Syracuse...Bearcats, with their takeaway defense and much-improved offense, too much for limited, downtrodden Syracuse...MEMPHIS (-8) vs. Smu--Tigers have come out of nowhere to enter bowl picture; Mustangs' defense has too little rush, way too little coverage to cool down hot Memphis QB Hankins...NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+8) over Ball State--Prideful Northern still tough to beat in DeKalb despite slew of early-season injuries...TEMPLE (+11) at Western Michigan--Slowly ascending Owls enjoying being back in the MAC, where they're 5-1 vs. the spread in 2007...NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) vs. Minnesota--Somewhere along the line, the Vikings' limited QBing is likely to fail under the pressure of the G-men's pass-rushers
THE GOLDSHEET
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25
Denver 20 - CHICAGO 17--With the Bears just as inconsistent on defense, at RB, and in their OL as they are at QB, will side with quicker Denver, which is capable of throwing some speedy pass rushers and tight coverage at Rex Grossman (will Lovie turn back to Griese?). Even with its own myriad problems, young Broncos now have lots of valuable experience, with several (DE Dumervil, WR Marshall) becoming solid contributors. (03-Chicago +10' 19-10...SR: EVEN 6-6)
Tennessee 27 - CINCINNATI 20--Because Tennessee takes its rushing game (No. 4 in NFL prior to Monday nighter in Denver) and defense (No. 2) on the road, Titans have become a "tough out" as a visitor (6-1 last 7 SU prior to Bronco game). And defense is certainly not the strong suit of the banged-up Bengals (31st overall; 27th vs. the run thru Week 10). Carson Palmer, betrayed by his OL & RBs, suffered four ints. last week. Vince Young (only 4 TDP, but 10 ints. prior to MNF) struggling somewhat, but note Cincy only 1-8 last 9 if home dog.
(05-Cincinnati -3 31-23...SR: Tennessee 38-31-1)
JACKSONVILLE 16 - Buffalo 13--David Garrard returned with success last week vs. S.D., with two TDP, no sacks, and no interceptions (none for season so far). Meanwhile, the Bills got seriously killed to death by the Pats last week. But, given the nature of the NFL, no surprise to see them put up a stubborn performance, especially if Marshawn Lynch (751 YR) back from sprained ankle. Bills 14-5 last 19 as dog.
(06-BUF. 27-Jack. 24...J.19-13 J.35/207 B.23/72 B.21/28/1/169 J.16/22/0/116 B.0 J.1)
(06-BUFFALO +3 27-24...SR: Buffalo 4-3)
Oakland 19 - KANSAS CITY 13--There aren't many teams against whom Oakland enjoys a QB edge these days. But with Brodie Croyle virtually getting the job by default in K.C., this might be one of those spots. Daunte Culpepper showed there's plenty of life left in his arm at Minnesota (344 YP), while Justin Fargas (578 YR in 2007) adding speed on the ground. Chiefs' complementary weapons not inspiring much confidence these days, especially with Larry Johnson still hurting and Priest Holmes not the same RB he was a few years ago. PK Janikowski (5 FGs last week) the Raiders' best weapon lately, but that's enough to get Oakland over the hump in this one.
(07-K. City 12-OAK. 10...K.14-10 K.32/126 O.24/55 O.18/29/1/213 K.16/32/1/164 K.0 O.1)
(06-K. CITY 17-Oak. 13...K.21-18 K.37/200 O.34/133 O.15/25/1/193 K.9/16/0/92 K.0 O.0)
(06-K. City 20-OAK. 9...K.19-18 K.38/150 O.24/112 O.27/37/2/195 K.12/24/1/142 K.0 O.3)
(07-K. City +2' 12-10; 06-K. CITY -9 17-13, K. City -7 20-9...SR: Kansas City 52-43-2)
Houston 34 - CLEVELAND 27--Before going any further, must note that Cleveland has gone "over" 9-0-1 in '07! And with Matt Schaub back at the controls for Houston, we'll get the "over" recommendation out of the way first. But Browns also going "over" because of numerous defensive shortcomings, with rush "D" a season-long sieve and DL unable to generate any consistent pressure on opposing QBs (Cleve. 29th in sacks), such that even stagnant Ravens exploited them last week. With Schaub and star WR Andre Johnson (73-yard TDC vs. Saints) back in the lineup, Texan offense can strike vertically.
(06-HOU. 14-Cleve. 6...C.19-11 C.28/127 H.26/94 C.25/34/1/179 H.9/15/1/83 H.0 C.2)
(06-HOUSTON -5 14-6...SR: EVEN 2-2)
Seattle 23 - ST. LOUIS 16--Seattle's Oct. 21 home victory over the injury-depleted St. Louis was a virtual walkover, with Seahawks collecting 7 sacks and 5 takeaways. Yes, Rams have recorded back-to-back road wins, but over fading New Orleans and the punchless 49ers. Meanwhile, Seattle QB Hasselbeck (337 YP) was intellectually near the top of his game last week vs. the Bears, and the quickness of RB Maurice Morris (87 YR) a welcome addition. Seahawk WR corps back intact, while St. Louis (6 sacks last week) still crippled up front on offense.
(07-SEA. 33-St. Lou. 6...Se.19-15 Se.32/100 St.17/53 Se.18/35/1/189 St.21/40/3/168 Se.0 St.2)
(06-Sea. 30-ST. LOU. 28...St.21-20 Se.28/125 St.22/59 St.26/39/1/309 Se.19/34/0/239 Se.1 St.1)
(06-SEA. 24-St. Lou. 22...Se.19-18 Se.26/160 St.20/108 St.26/40/1/191 Se.15/23/0/123 Se.2 St.0)
(07-SEATTLE -8 33-6; 06-Seattle -3 30-28, SEATTLE -3' 24-22...SR: St. Louis 10-9)
NY GIANTS 24 - Minnesota 13--With veteran Chester Taylor (career-best 164 YR vs. Oakland) available, Minny would be foolish to rush prize property Adrian Peterson and his sprained knee ligament back into action. But the minimal QBing of the Vikes (53% completions, only 5 TDP) is likely to leave them vulnerable to the N.Y. pass rushers (34 sacks). And pass defense has been Minnesota's weakness for two years. Can Eli Manning avoid the second-half-of-the-season slips that have hampered the Giants' in recent years? (05-Minnesota +9 24-21...SR: Minnesota 11-10)
New Orleans 27 - CAROLINA 20--The Panthers are mysteriously frustrating their fans TY, going 0-4 SU & vs. the spread in Charlotte. Can Vinny Testaverde (recently turned 44) or sore-spined David Carr snap them out of that slump vs. revenged-minded N.O. and its quick-hitting passing attack? Such is not likely, especially with WR Steve Smith (out last week due to shin injury) sidelined and Julius Peppers (only 2? sacks) having virtually disappeared from NFL highlights TY. Erratic Saints & Drew Brees likely to produce more points.
(07-Car. 16-N. ORL. 13...N.23-12 N.28/89 C.28/88 N.29/47/2/252 C.11/19/1/155 C.0 N.0)
(06-CAR. 21-N. Orl. 18...N.22-20 C.29/167 N.23/63 N.28/38/0/344 C.19/29/0/157 C.0 N.1)
(06-Car. 31-N. ORL. 21...C.20-13 C.33/106 N.17/61 N.20/29/1/236 C.23/27/0/207 C.0 N.1)
(07-Carolina +3 16-13; 06-CAROLINA -7 21-18, Carolina -3 31-21...SR: Carolina 15-10)
Washington 16 - TAMPA BAY 14--Buccaneers improved, but their close-to-the-vest offense should play right into the hands of Washington, which usually doesn't mind grind-'em-out affairs. Emerging QB Jason Campbell has more quality targets (WRs Moss, Randle El & McCardell, and H-back Cooley) than does T.B.'s Garcia. With some new quickness on the Bucs' defense, T.B. has gone "under" 10 of last 15 overall.
(06-T. BAY 20-Wash. 17...T.19-15 T.42/181 W.20/64 W.19/34/0/188 T.14/21/1/178 T.1 W.1)
(06-TAMPA BAY -3 20-17...SR: EVEN 8-8)
UNDER THE TOTAL ARIZONA 22 - San Francisco 6--Even with the "price" rising, only one way to go with the side here until S.F. (0-8 SU, 1-7 vs. spread last 8) can find some punch. That's not likely to happen vs. 2007 NFC West nouveau contender Arizona (3-1 SU & vs. spread at home TY), which is enjoying being in the race. 49er defense (6 sacks last week) still hustling, but S.F. scoring just 9 ppg its last 8. Kurt Warner more careful in HC Whisenhunt's offense, which is keeping defenses honest with the run.
(07-S. FRAN. 20-Ariz. 17...A.20-16 A.38/161 S.22/92 S.15/31/0/102 A.14/28/2/100 S.1 A.0)
(06-ARIZ. 34-S. Fran. 27...A.23-19 S.18/107 A.29/84 S.23/40/0/286 A.23/37/0/283 A.1 S.2)
(06-Ariz. 26-S. FRAN. 20...A.21-14 A.41/123 S.12/49 A.18/26/0/249 S.18/29/1/174 A.1 S.1)
(07-S. FRAN. -3 20-17; 06-ARIZONA -8' 34-27, Arizona +4 26-20...SR: San Francisco 18-14)
SAN DIEGO 27 - Baltimore 12--Despite their many 2007 disappointments, the Norv Turner Chargers have been a formidable home team (4-1 vs. the spread). Meanwhile, the Ravens have fought hard this year, but not particularly well (1-9 vs. the spread!). Subbing for Steve McNair last week, Kyle Boller suffered 6 sacks, 1 fumble, and 2 ints., one of them returned for a 100-yard TD! That means Shawne Merriman (5? sacks) and CB Antonio Cromartie (6 ints.) will be licking their chops.
(06-BALT. 16-S. Diego 13...B.14-13 S.41/150 B.21/56 B.17/30/2/150 S.13/23/1/134 B.1 S.0)
(06-BALTIMORE +2 16-13...SR: Baltimore 3-2)
*NEW ENGLAND 45 - Philadelphia 17--Rematch of the Super Bowl three seasons ago. However, with T.O. having taken his act to Dallas and Donovan McNabb (check ankle injury) in decline, it's tough to expect Philly to keep pace with the loaded 2007 Patriots, especially with Randy Moss (16 TDC) having turned into a dynamic model citizen and the inordinately precise Tom Brady (38 TDs, only 4 ints.!) apparently on the all-time QB roll. They again please their N.E. fans while the Pats' LBs keep Brian Westbrook well under control. TV--NBC
(04-N. Eng. -7 24-21 (Super Bowl XXXIX at Jacksonville)...SR: Philadelphia 6-4)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26
*PITTSBURGH 35 - Miami 10--Willie Parker (925 YR) is making no secret of the fact he's after the rushing title now that Adrian Peterson's injury has opened the door. And Ben Roethlisberger (23 TDs, only 8 ints.) is close to his Super Bowl form after LY's injuries. The Dolphins might activate Ricky Williams for this game. But Williams or no, rookie QB John Beck is likely to be plenty mystified by Pittsburgh's array of zone blitzes. Just a couple of turnovers might help the Steelers (4-1 vs. the spread at home) bounce back with a vengeance after last week's "soft" performance visiting the Jets. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-PITT 28-Miami 17...P.20-15 P.38/143 M.18/38 M.18/37/2/240 P.15/25/0/196 P.1 M.0)
(06-PITTSBURGH -1 28-17...SR: Miami 11-10)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Miami and Pittsburgh on Monday Night
Miami is 6-15 straight-up and 9-11-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
32-17 straight-up and 29-20 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Pittsburgh is 21-5 straight-up and 19-7 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
13-17 straight-up and 15-14-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
NFL KEY RELEASES
OAKLAND by 6 over Kansas City
HOUSTON by 7 over Cleveland
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
UNDER THE TOTAL in the San Francisco-Arizona game
College Analysis
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *?indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P?Pick Game. SR?Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL?No Line. OPR?Average Opponents? Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC?Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). ?O??Offense. ?D??Defense. DDs?Double Digits. OL?Offensive Line or Lineman. DL?Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.?Offensive Coordinator. d.c.?Defensive Coordinator. YR?Yards Rushing. YP?Yards Passing. recs.?Receptions. ints.?Interceptions. STs?Special Teams. ypg?Yards per Game. ppg?Points per Game. ypc?Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY?Last Year. TY?This Year. Y?Year or Years. TDP?Touchdown Passes. FA?Free Agent. SU?Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22
*ARZIONA STATE 24 - Southern Cal 20--Acknowledge Pete Carroll's 22-0 SU record in November since taking over at SC in '01. But by this stage of campaign, we've seen enough of this Trojan edition not to compare it with the high-powered Palmer/Leinart/Bush offensive machines from earlier in decade (Troy has exceeded 27 points just once in last 7 games). If anything, ASU's efforts more impressive this season, and as long as QB Carpenter's sore thumb properly healed after "bye" week, Sun Devils get closer to coveted BCS berth. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-S. CAL 28-Ariz. St. 21...S.18-13 S.36/159 A.33/121 S.12/25/1/148 A.12/21/0/124 S.1 A.1)
(06-USC -19 28-21 05-Usc -15 38-28 04-USC -10' 45-7...SR: Southern Cal 14-9)
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 23
Central Michigan 27 - AKRON 16--CMU has a significant QB edge, as Chips' Dan LeFevour is 9th in the country in total offense, while Zip counterpart Chris Jaquemain has completed just 39% in his last 4 games with 7 ints. & just 4 TD passes. CMU HC Butch Jones undoubtedly would like his team to get back on winning track in preparation for upcoming MAC title game against Miami-Ohio. Unless Jaquemain comes up with an aberrational performance, CMU wins with relative ease. CABLE TV--ESPNU
(06-C. MICH. 24-Akron 21...A.24-16 C.36/129 A.31/61 A.25/46/3/375 C.16/23/1/162 C.1 A.0)
(06-CENTRAL MICH. +1 24-21 05-Central Mich. +10' 31-17...SR: Central Michigan 11-9-1)
COLORADO 37 - Nebraska 27--After jr. backup QB Joe Ganz led 7-TDP, 702-yard, 73-point explosion for Nebraska vs. K-State, NU offense brimming with confidence. It must be noted, however, that the thin, rebuilding Husker defense is giving up a lofty 35.5 ppg, 8 points more than host Colorado. Both teams are 5-6 and need this one for bowl eligibility. In that case, will favor the better defense, chemistry, creativity and kicking game of Buffaloes, who have often been at their best in recent years vs. their rivals from Lincoln. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-NEB. 37-Colo. 14...N.24-14 N.46/190 C.31/166 N.20/30/0/278 C.11/23/0/131 N.2 C.0)
(06-NEB. -14 37-14 05-Neb. +16 30-3 04-Colo. +2' 26-20...SR: Nebraska 46-17-2)
MISSISSIPPI STATE 35 - Mississippi 21--In the "Egg Bowl," prefer to lay single digits with resurgent, bowl-bound MSU squad that had season-high 501 yds. in 45-31 setback at Arkansas. With Bulldogs emerging frosh QB Carroll (421 YP, but 4 ints. vs. Hogs) cleaning up his mistakes, look for coming State attack to repeatedly burn talent-shy Ole Miss defense (last in SEC in scoring & rush "D"). Meanwhile, floundering Rebels in danger of 1st winless SEC season since '92, and embroiled HC Orgeron's late-season QB shuffling not a positive.
(06-MISS. 20-Miss. St. 17...S.19-10 S.35/152 U.27/58 S.16/34/1/162 U.10/23/0/142 U.0 S.0)
(06-MISS. -3 20-17 05-MSU +2 35-14 04-MISS. -5' 20-3...SR: Mississippi 59-38-6)
COLORADO STATE 26 - Wyoming 17--Perhaps intense border rivalry vs. hated foe will provide jolt that stumbling Wyo (0-7-1 vs. line last 8 TY) has been missing since September. Then again, maybe it won't. CSU at least playing hard down stretch, with RB G. Johnson (5.5 ypc L6 games) emerging as a force. And possible huge emotional effort could be forthcoming from Rams if this is beloved HC Sonny Lubick's last game (pending retirement rumors rife in Rockies).
(06-WYO. 24-Colo. St. 0...W.15-12 W.39/166 C.22/42 C.23/45/2/217 W.10/22/0/152 W.0 C.1)
(06-WYO. -4 24-0 05-CSU -3' 39-31 04-CSU -4' 30-7...SR: Colorado State 53-40-5)
BOWLING GREEN 41 - Toledo 28--Realize it's a dicey play to back BG at Doyt Perry Stadium, where the Falcons had dropped 9 straight spread decisions until whipping Akron 44-20 Nov. 2. However, Falcon QB Sheehan (64%, 20 TD passes) and his array of weapons (WR Barnes 72 catches; "slash" back Turner 250 YR, 4 TDs rushing, 2 TD passes & 13 recs. last 3 games) will do a lot of damage facing Toledo defense yielding the most points in the country. CABLE TV--ESPNU
(06-TOLEDO 31-B. Green 21...B.20-16 T.47/208 B.31/76 B.24/42/1/246 T.10/13/0/107 T.0 B.0)
(06-TOL. -6' 31-21 05-Tol. +6' 44-41 (OT) 04-TOL. +4' 49-41...SR: Bowling Green 36-31-4)
LSU 34 - Arkansas 27--Now that Arkansas QB Dick (career-best 14 of 17 & 4 TDP vs. Miss. St.) is finally able to take some pressure off future NFL 1st-rounder RB McFadden (1519 YR, 5.6 ypc), capable 7-4 Hogs able to hang inside number vs. top-ranked LSU, which is a money-burnin' 1-10 vs. spread last 11 as SEC host (0-3 TY). Arkansas fighting especially hard for embattled, well-liked HC Nutt, while top-ranked LSU compelled to stay healthy with SEC title game on horizon. Remember, McFadden rambled for 182 YR without much help from Dick (an ugly 3 of 17 passing) in competitive 31-26 series loss LY. Take. TV--CBS
(06-Lsu 31-ARK. 26...A.16-15 A.39/298 L.36/118 L.14/22/0/210 A.5/20/1/62 L.2 A.0)
(06-Lsu -1' 31-26 at LR 05-LSU -17 19-17 04-Lsu -3' 43-14 at LR...SR: LSU 34-17-2)
Texas 25 - TEXAS A&M 23--Last game for Dennis Franchione in College Station? The events of last week mean a Texas win keeps the Longhorns alive in the Big XII South. Colt McCoy is seeking redemption after he played hurt in LY's game and tossed 3 interceptions. And the speedy Jamaal Charles has ignited the UT ground assault with 644 YR in just the last three games. But Longhorns not a dominating team TY, and A&M option QB McGee has developed his passing in recent games. The Aggie defense has seen six spread-option attacks TY (although it has often left plenty to be desired). REG. TV--ABC
(06-Tex. A&M 12-TEXAS 7...A.17-16 A.51/244 U.25/70 U.17/29/4/160 A.7/13/0/58 A.1 U.0)
(06-Tam +13' 12-7 05-Texas -28 40-29 04-TEXAS -10' 26-13...SR: Texas 73-35-5)
*Boise State 40 - HAWAII 33--In a rare WAC showdown with BCS implications, Boise (which has outside BCS hopes of its own) certainly won't be lacking for confidence after beating Hawaii last 6 meetings! And conference scouts remain a bit skeptical about veteran Warrior "D" that has lacked some of the edge under 1st-year d.c. McMackin it played with under Jerry Glanville the last few years. Even with Colt Brennan available for June Jones' Red Gun, red-hot Bronco QB Tharp (27 TDP) and host of Boise weapons capable of surviving another expected shootout. CABLE TV--ESPN2
(06-BOISE ST. 41-Hawaii 34...B.26-24 B.44/242 H.18/88 H.25/37/1/388 B.17/29/1/273 B.0 H.2)
(06-BSU -14' 41-34 05-Bsu -10' 44-41 04-BSU -22' 69-3...SR: Boise State 6-2)
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 24
South Florida 28 - PITTSBURGH 13--Panthers have been righteous dog TY, covering 4 of 5 when getting points. But compelled to back profitable Bulls (13-6 vs. spread last 19 on board). Touted frosh RB Ford (274 YR & 4 TDs last 2 games; originally signed with Alabama) giving versatile soph QB Grothe greater ground support recently. Conversely, Pitt frosh RB McCoy unlikely to make much headway against soph DE Selvie (nation-leading 30? tackles for loss!) & speedy South Florida defense.
(06-S. FLA. 22-Pitt 12...S.18-12 S.48/190 P.23/55 S.20/26/2/187 P.11/23/3/159 S.2 P.0)
(06-USF +4' 22-12 05-PITT -1' 31-17 04-Pitt -6' 43-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)
WEST VIRGINIA 31 - Connecticut 19--Mountaineers own inside track to Big East title and have been climbing back up BCS rankings since early loss at South Florida. Doubt they'll be derailed at Morgantown. But no big surprise if visiting Huskies (covered 7 of last 8) able to hang inside roomy impost. They have a productive rushing attack & an underrated defense, and well-coached UConn (only 11 turnovers TY) takes care of rock.
(06-West Va. 37-CONN. 11...17-17 W.42/263 C.33/95 W.9/14/1/156 C.15/34/2/115 W.1 C.0)
(06-Wva -23 37-11 05-WVA -15 45-13 04-Wva -6' 31-19...SR: West Virginia 3-0)
UCF 52 - Utep 24--Sure, Miners have some offensive firepower. But not nearly enough to compensate for their awful defense. Plummeting UTEP has lost 5 straight (1-4 vs. spread), permitting 45 ppg during that recent tailspin. A berth in C-USA title game is within Knights' grasp. They'll ride star jr. TB Kevin Smith (1945 YR & league-record 25 TDs) to easy win. (FIRST MEETING)
Missouri 34 - Kansas 31--Remarkable Kansas (11-0 SU, 10-0 vs. the spread) is on the verge of pointspread history with its season-long run. But Missouri (10-1 & 8-2) is not far behind. And the Tigers have played the tougher schedule, with jr. QB Daniel (69.3%, 30 TDs, 9 ints.) more battle-tested than Jayhawks' confident soph Reesing (63.3%, 30 TDs, 4 ints.). KU's RB McAnderson (514 YR last 4 games) is the most powerful force on the field, but Mizzou WR/KR Maclin (3 return TDs; 16 TDs overall) is the most dynamic. The Jayhawks have CB Talib and hold some statistical edges (scoring defense, TO margin, etc.), but Daniel's greater experience under pressure could be the key. (at Kansas City, MO)
(06-MO. 42-Kansas 17...M.27-14 K.29/160 M.37/137 M.26/38/0/356 K.12/23/1/162 M.0 K.1)
(06-MO. -7' 42-17 05-KANSAS +5 13-3 04-Kansas +11 31-14...SR: EVEN 53-53-9)
NORTH CAROLINA 33 - Duke 24--Blue Devils (dropped last 5 vs. spread) wrapping up another miserable campaign. There's a lot more optimism in Chapel Hill, and Butch Davis should lead his young Tar Heels to a 4th straight victory in series. But there are enough holes in UNC 2ndary for Duke QB Lewis (19 TDP) to go down firing.
(06-N. Car. 45-DUKE 44...N.18-16 N.32/200 D.27/103 D.21/36/2/291 N.20/31/1/253 N.2 D.0)
(06-Unc -7 45-44 05-UNC -21' 24-21 04-Unc -6' 40-17...SR: North Carolina 54-35-4)
VANDERBILT 26 - Wake Forest 21--Although Commodores off painful, come-from-ahead 25-24 loss at Tennessee (Vandy was outscored 16-0 in 4th), still favor highly-motivated 'Dores, who'll become bowl eligible with their 1st-non losing season since '82 with victory here. WF has defeated only defenseless Duke and Navy on road TY, and doubt Deacons clever field general Skinner will find his mojo vs. an aggressive, seasoned Vandy defense (only 19 ppg in last 5 home games) that disguises its schemes well.
(05-Vanderbilt +8' 24-20...SR: Vanderbilt 7-3)
NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20 - Maryland 13--Winner likely headed to minor bowl, while loser will miss out on postseason. Maryland (fewer than 100 YR in 3 of last 4) having a hard time establishing ground game behind its paper-thin OL. A measured vote to N.C. State & versatile soph RB Eugene, although poor decisions by volatile jr. QB Evans (2 TDP, 5 ints. in last 2 games) could prove Wolfpack's undoing.
(06-MARY. 26-Ncsu 20...N.17-11 M.41/165 N.38/154 N.15/26/2/145 M.7/9/0/115 M.1 N.1)
(06-MARY. -2 26-20 05-NCS -3 20-14 04-Ncs +2' 13-3...SR: North Carolina St. 30-29-4)
Cincinnati 37 - SYRACUSE 10--First-year Bearcat HC Brian Kelly a pointspread dynamo, going 25-7-3 against line last 2+ seasons at C. Michigan & Cincy. Hard-pressed to come up with compelling reasons to support Syracuse & its floundering West Coast attack, which hasn't produced more than 2 TDs in any of last 7 games. Not much home-field edge for Orange at Carrier Dome these days.
(06-CINCY 17-Syr. 3...C.16-12 C.42/147 S.31/61 C.13/18/2/205 S.13/29/0/119 C.0 S.0)
(06-CINCY -6' 17-3 05-Cincy +5' 22-16 04-SYR. +2' 19-7...SR: Syracuse 4-3)
SOUTH CAROLINA 24 - Clemson 23--Now that deflated Clemson has been knocked out of ACC title game with last-minute 20-17 home upset loss vs. Boston College, recommend rested, 6-5 South Carolina, whose clever mentor Spurrier has had extra time to scheme. Like '06, 'Cocks 6-3 sr. QB Mitchell (290+ YP last 4 starts) has been steady since returning from bench. Tigers' productive triggerman Harper won't easily find open targets vs. Carolina 2ndary (SEC-best 163 ypg; 54%, 13 ints.). Also, kicking edge goes to Cocks' strong-legged PK/P Succop (29 of 37 FGs L1+Ys; 42-yd. avg.).
(06-S. Car. 31-CLEM. 28...S.28-15 S.35/208 C.33/181 S.24/37/3/284 C.13/19/1/191 S.1 C.1)
(06-Usc +5' 31-28 05-Clem. -3 13-9 04-CLEM. -3 29-7...SR: Clemson 63-37-2)
Buffalo 27 - KENT STATE 19--Kent State 4th-team QB Jon Brown last week showed why he was buried on depth chart, completing just 11 of 27 passes with 0 TDs and 4 ints. at Temple. Conversely, Buffalo QB Drew Willy has completed 67% this season, and Bulls are significantly improved on defense and special teams in upwardly-mobile HC Turner Gill's second (and last?) season in Buffalo. Flash ace RB Eugene Jarvis was held to just 57 YR last week, as now defenses can stack to contain the jitterbug Jarvis as a result of Brown's passing problems.
(06-BUF. 41-Kent St. 14...K.16-15 B.34/176 K.34/103 K.18/34/2/195 B.14/20/1/193 B.1 K.3)
(06-BUF. +15' 41-14 05-Buf. +7 10-6 04-Ksu -8 33-7...SR: Kent State 8-7)
EAST CAROLINA 39 - Tulane 23--Green Wave RB Matt Forte powered for another 194 yards and 5 TDs (now up to 2007 YR & 22) last week vs. defenseless Rice. But ECU (allowing 3.95 ypc) is bigger and tougher up front than the Owls, and the offensively better-balanced Pirates were scoring 42 ppg in C-USA games TY until uncharacteristic 26-7 road loss at Marshall two weeks ago. (04-EAST CAROLINA -3' 27-25...SR: East Carolina 6-2)
Tennessee 37 - KENTUCKY 28--Since SEC East frontrunner UT (wins tie-breaker with UGA) managed to escape in 25-24 come-back thriller vs. Vandy, expect error-free Vols (SEC-low 12 giveaways) to extend their 22-game win streak vs. Kentucky squad that has dropped 3 of last 4. UT's highly-efficient,untouched sr. QB Ainge (sacked only thrice in 391 attempts, 65%, 20 TDs, 5 ints.) makes a few more big plays than Wildcats slipping star passer Woodson, who failed to generate a TD in final 3 Qs of disappointing 24-13 setback at Georgia.
(06-TENN. 17-Ky. 12...K.24-23 K.30/128 T.34/96 K.26/39/0/282 T.19/33/0/240 T.1 K.0)
(06-TENN. -20' 17-12 05-Tenn. -9 27-8 04-TENN. -23' 37-31...SR: Tennessee 70-23-9)
OHIO 31 - Miami-Ohio 17--Rested Ohio U. and sr. star RB Kalvin McRae (162 ypg rushing & 11 rush TDs last 5 games; career 4286 YR & 48 TDs) should be highly motivated in final game at Peden Stadium. Bobcats will say goodbye to 17 seniors (14 in two-deep) against rival Miami-O. squad that has its spot in MAC Championship all locked up. RedHawk offense doesn't convert yards into points as well as it should (107th in scoring at 19 ppg), and QB Daniel Raudabaugh is coming off a 3-int. game in unimpressive 7-0 win at home against Akron. Bobcat seniors secure 6th victory & gain bowl-eligibility.
(06-Ohio 34-MIAMI-O. 24...M.19-16 O.44/304 M.26/128 M.20/36/1/180 O.10/17/1/133 O.2 M.2)
(06-Ohio -3 34-24 05-Miami -9 38-7 04-MIAMI -19 40-20...SR: Miami-Ohio 51-30-2)
Utah 25 - BYU 22--Annual "Beehive Boot" battles (last two decided on final play!) even more exciting to locals than Oprah's recent Osmonds reunion show. And slight edge to hot Utah (covered last 6 TY), thanks to better-balanced "O," playmaking QB B. Johnson, and "D" that's allowed just one TD (and that came after a TO vs. New Mexico) in last 14 Qs of play. Well-defined series trends (dog 9-1 last 10; visitor 12-3 last 15) further support Ute argument.
(06-Byu 33-UTAH 31...B.27-26 U.33/98 B.24/54 U.25/41/0/376 B.28/44/0/375 B.0 U.0)
(06-Byu -3' 33-31 05-Utah +10 41-34 (OT) 04-UTAH -20 52-21...SR: Utah 49-29-4)
MEMPHIS 37 - Smu 22--Jelling Memphis (won & covered 4 of last 5) headed to minor bowl, while 1-10 SMU just playing out string for lame-duck HC Phil Bennett. In their final home game, Tigers' trigger-happy sr. QB Hankins (1771 YP in last 5 games) & sr. RB Doss (168 YR last week) will go out with a bang against pliable Pony defense that's yielding nearly 300 ypg passing & more than 5 ypc. (DNP...SR: Memphis 1-0)
Tulsa 38 - RICE 36--Visiting Golden Hurricane looking to sew up spot in C-USA title game. Rice's defense might be too weak to keep former mentor Graham from achieving that goal. But without a reliable ground hammer to complement star sr. QB Paul Smith (3886 YP & 34 TDP!), tough for visiting Tulsa to keep Owl QB Clement (18 TDP & 6 rush scores in just last 5 games) from trading points.
(06-Rice 41-TULSA 38 (OT)...T.26-18 T.52/260 R.33/147 T.17/29/1/308 R.14/37/0/209 R.0 T.3)
(06-Rice +14 41-38 (OT) 05-Tulsa -7 41-21 04-TULSA +1 39-22...SR: Rice 7-4-1)
UCLA 24 - Oregon 23--Not sure that UCLA can do enough to save Karl Dorrell's job if skittery 4th-string QB Rashaan at controls. But Bruins have displayed a circle-the-wagons mentality in recent years, especially at Rose Bowl, where they're 18-5 vs. number last 23 and unbeaten vs. line last 5 as dog. Oregon "O" just not the same with Brady Leaf in at QB for the injured Dennis Dixon, and not interested laying any points with Ducks after their national title dreams evaporated in Tucson.
(06-OREGON 30-Ucla 20...O.21-17 O.43/256 U.30/104 O.11/22/1/148 U.16/31/1/112 O.1 U.0)
(06-OREGON -9' 30-20 04-Ucla +7 34-26...SR: UCLA 38-22)
AUBURN 20 - Alabama 19--Now that number rising following Bama's shocking 21-14 home loss vs. UL Monroe, will take inflated price with angry, embarrassed, ridiculed Tide squad itchin' to end 5-game series losing streak. Auburn QB Cox's self-confidence waning again (4 ints. vs. Georgia; SEC-low 9 TDP), and his run-oriented, undynamic attack (24 pts. or fewer in 12 of past 13 vs. BCS conference foes) won't uncharacteristically erupt vs. a fired-up Bama defense. If Tide's usually-effective QB J.P. Wilson maintains his poise, Saban's squad hangs close again (all 5 losses TY by TD or fewer). Bama 8-2-2 as TD+ road dog since '97. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-Auburn 22-ALABAMA 15...Al.18-14 Au.40/124 Al.30/112 Al.18/33/1/252 Au.6/14/0/137 Au.1 Al.3)
(06-Auburn -3 22-15 05-AUBURN -7 28-18 04-Auburn -10' 21-13...SR: Alabama 38-32-1)
Georgia 30 - GEORGIA TECH 14--Lack of success against despised Georgia, which has captured last 6 in series, a major reason why Tech HC Chan Gailey on tenterhooks in Atlanta. Will a win save his job? Maybe, but that's easier said than done against burgeoning Bulldogs, who are riding 5-game 2007 win streak. Eager to lay cheap price with UGa's blossoming soph QB Stafford & revelatory RS frosh RB Moreno (766 YR & 9 TDs in last 5 games). Bulldogs won and covered last 3 visits here.
(06-GA. 15-Ga. Tech 12...U.18-12 T.35/146 U.37/84 U.16/29/0/171 T.6/22/2/42 U.1 T.1)
(06-GEORGIA -2' 15-12 05-Georgia -4 14-7 04-GEORGIA -15 19-13...SR: Georgia 58-36-5)
IDAHO 27 - Utah State 20--In the WAC equivalent of a Democratic Presidential debate where only Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel show up, we're tempted to jump on USU bandwagon (such as it is) that's recruiting new riders after Ags broke 16-game losing streak last week. But there are a few more difference-makers (such as RB D. Jackson & CB Franks) on Idaho side.
(06-Idaho 41-UTAH ST. 21...U.22-18 I.35/128 U.35/119 I.10/20/0/188 U.19/27/2/186 I.1 U.1)
(06-Idaho -2' 41-21 05-IDAHO +2 27-13 04-USU -11' 14-7...SR: Idaho 16-15-2)
FLORIDA 42 - Florida State 24--Sure, FSU is a rare DD road dog (1-1 since '97). But believe explosive Florida (43 ppg) eventually covers impost behind super-soph Heisman hopeful Tebow (1st QB in NCAA history with at least 20 TDs both passing & rushing in same season) welcoming back versatile, speedy WR Harvin (45 grabs; missed last 2 games with sinus condition). Conversely, expect 'Noles up-and-down QB Weatherford (3 ints. in '06 tilt) to be on downer in "The Swamp," since his play-action passes rendered mostly ineffective again with stodgy ground attack stymied by UF's run-stuffing front 7 (just 99 ypg, 3.0 ypc).
(06-Fla. 21-FLA. ST. 14...U.16-11 U.32/105 S.18/46 U.21/35/0/283 S.18/43/3/189 U.1 S.0)
(06-Fla. -9 21-14 05-FLA. -4 34-7 04-Fla. +7 20-13...SR: Florida 30-19-2)
OKLAHOMA 37 - Oklahoma State 27--With OU likely needing a win to clinch the Big XII South (unless Texas loses), superior defensive personnel of Sooners should get them there...but not before 60 minutes of "bedlam" have expired. OSU's offense has become unflappable (39 ppg last 5) since 6-3 soph Zac Robinson began executing the Cowboy spread with aplomb. And the OU defense continues to have periodic lapses at inopportune times. Sooners' hopes for a shot at the BCS title game now gone; check status of QB Bradford (concussion).
(06-Okla. 27-OKLA. ST. 21...S.20-19 U.47/238 S.39/119 S.17/31/0/243 U.7/11/0/77 U.0 S.1)
(06-Okla. -5' 27-21 05-OKLA. -19' 42-14 04-Okla. -13' 38-35...SR: Oklahoma 78-15-7)
Nevada 33 - SAN JOSE STATE 27--Be careful before laying too many points with Nevada, which has been involved in a series of hair-raisers in '07. And SJSU a lot more competent at home (8-1 vs. line since LY), where hot QB Tafralis has passed for 300+ yards in all four games TY. But big balance edge owned by Chris Ault's Wolf Pack Pistol, featuring slamming RB Lippincott (5.6 ypc), and Nevada needs win to keep flickering bowl hopes alive.
(06-NEVADA 23-Sjsu 7...N.25-13 N.55/230 S.27/162 N.20/28/1/178 S.10/22/1/77 N.1 S.2)
(06-NEVADA -13 23-7 05-Nevada -3' 30-23 04-NEVADA -14 42-24...SR: Nevada 12-7-2)
Ball State 30 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 23--NIU hasn't quit under vet HC Joe Novak, as young team has covered last two following humiliating 70-pt. defensive "effort" against Toledo. Husky soph RB Justin Anderson has gained 128 ypg rushing in last 9 games, and QB torch has been passed from sr. Dan Nicholson to promising soph Ryan Morris (21 of 35 for 206 YP & 2 TDs last week). Ball State is 13-3 vs. the number last 16 on the road, but only two of those games were double-digit Cardinal wins.
(06-N. Ill. 40-BALL ST. 28...N.24-21 N.41/358 B.26/78 B.29/40/0/307 N.20/27/0/252 N.1 B.1)
(06-Niu -6' 40-28 05-Bsu +29 31-17 04-Niu -20' 38-31 (OT)...SR: Ball State 18-14-2)
*MARSHALL 27 - Uab 19--Don't quite trust Marshall defense (447 ypg; ranks 103rd) to cover double digits against UAB HC Neil Callaway's hard-trying Blazers. Marshall QB Bernard Morris has cooled considerably in second half of season, tossing only 3 TD passes in last 4 games after throwing at least 2 in 6 straight. The previous two meetings in series have both been hotly contested.
(06-Marshall 31-UAB 24...M.21-19 M.46/317 U.28/137 U.18/30/2/205 M.9/12/2/156 M.0 U.0)
(06-Marshall +6 31-24 05-MARSHALL +3 20-19...SR: Marshall 2-0)
FRESNO STATE 31 - Kansas State 25--KSU not exactly rallying down stretch, as ongoing defensive breakdowns (Big XII scouts alarmed at number of missed assignments and improper alignments) contributing mightily to late-season fade. And Fresno good enough to capitalize, especially with "bye" week providing necessary rest that key Bulldog weapons RB R. Matthews & TE Pascoe needed to get back in action. TV-ESPN
(04-Fresno State +12' 45-21...SR: Fresno State 1-0)
NEW MEXICO 23 - Unlv 19--Not sure what to make of UNLV announcement that HC Sanford will return in '08, as Rebs (7th straight loss) didn't exactly respond positively to the news in last week's sleepwalk at TCU. But with QB Porterie enduring a bit of a sophomore slump, low-variance UNM not offering much value itself lately (no covers last 5). Ultra-competitive recent series history suggests generous points worth considering.
(06-N. Mex. 39-UNLV 36 (OT)...U.17-14 N.39/112 U.29/84 U.18/33/2/295 N.13/27/1/168 N.0 U.2)
(06-Unm -2' 39-36 (OT) 05-UNM -15 24-22 04-Unm +2' 24-20...SR: New Mexico 8-6)
Washington State 29 - WASHINGTON 27--Will Morley Safer and the 60 Minutes crew show up in Pullman to investigate Wazzu's 8-TO meltdown vs. Oregon State? Still, Bill Doba's Cougar "D" has shown enough in recent weeks to suggest it won't get run over by U-Dub RBs as did fading Cal last week. And wouldn't want to count on Husky backup QB Bonnell (just 7 of 19 vs. Golden Bears) to extend Apple Cup margin if Jake Locker unavailable again.
(06-Wash. 35-WSU 32...S.26-14 U.31/109 S.31/102 S.32/54/0/328 U.14/27/2/271 U.0 S.1)
(06-Wash. +8' 35-32 05-Wsu -3 26-22 04-WSU -12 28-25...SR: Washington 64-29-6)
*WESTERN MICHIGAN 27 - Temple 23--Temple, which was 4-42 SU the last four years, last week logged it's 4th victory of 2007 against Kent State. Look for remarkable turnaround to continue as Owls catch Western Michigan possibly still celebrating its upset at Iowa. Broncos managed to avoid turnovers and played perhaps their best defensive game of the season at Kinnick Stadium against the Hawkeyes, but hard-trying 2007 Temple defense is a much better unit than the one that yielded 41 points in last year's visit to Kalamazoo. Owls' frosh RB Daryl Robinson (17 carries for 105 yds. vs. Kent) gives Temple a lift.
(06-W. MICH. 41-Tem. 7...W.15-12 W.34/151 T.29/9 W.15/26/0/143 T.12/26/3/140 W.1 T.1)
(06-WMU -30 41-7 05-Wmu -3' 19-16...SR: Western Michigan 5-0)
*BOSTON COLLEGE 33 - Miami-Florida 13--Motivation a major ? for BC, which has already bagged a spot in ACC title game after last week's hard-fought win at Clemson. Want no part of money-burning Miami bunch that's just 11-24 vs. spread since start of 2005, however. Hurricanes have lost 5 of last 6 SU, as their offense is mostly inept, while their once-proud defense playing with little passion. TV--ESPN
(06-MIAMI 17-Bos. Col. 14...10-10 M.34/66 B.25/24 M.13/26/3/181 B.17/34/1/169 M.1 B.1)
(06-MIAMI-FLORIDA +4 17-14...SR: Miami-Florida 23-3)
*Virginia Tech 19 - VIRGINIA 10--Winner earns spot in next week's ACC title game. Can't sell host Cavaliers short, as they have extra week of prep and a knack for pulling out close games TY (6 of UVa's 9 wins have come by total of 12 pts.!). The stout defenses figure to hold sway in this matchup, so "under" might be best percentage play. Slightly lean to visiting Tech, as its complementary QBs, pocket-passing jr. Glennon & mobile true frosh T. Taylor, have a few more weapons at their disposal.
(06-VA. TECH 17-Va. 0...T.14-5 T.45/156 U.23/46 T.12/18/1/146 U.10/21/1/66 T.0 U.1)
(06-TECH -17 17-0 05-Tech -7 52-14 04-TECH -3' 24-10...SR: Virginia Tech 46-37-5)
*STANFORD 24 - Notre Dame 17--We'd bet even Digger Phelps isn't convinced last week's win vs. lowly Duke is any sort of late-season "buy" signal for ND. Despite that result, their shaky OL, lack of playmakers, and suspect "D" remain tangible negatives for Irish. Rested Stanford has at least progressed noticeably for Jim Harbaugh in '07, and Cardinal arsenal better stocked this week with return of big-play WR Sherman from 1-game suspension.
(06-N. DAME 31-Stan. 10...N.29-14 N.39/204 S.31/72 N.27/38/0/232 S.10/18/1/154 N.0 S.0)
(06-UND -29' 31-10 05-Und -15' 38-31 04-UND -5 23-15...SR: Notre Dame 15-6)
*Tcu 29 - SAN DIEGO STATE 23--We're not going to argue with SDSU critics who maintain Aztecs didn't beat much in their 4 wins this season. But SDSU "D" might not be as vulnerable vs. the more-conventional TCU attack as it was vs. Air Force's hybrid shotgun/option that gained almost 4/10 of a mile in last week's blowout. Remember, Frogs have covered only once on road TY, and Aztec QB O'Donnell has the wheels to neutralize TCU's Blake/Ortiz pass-rush duo.
(06-TCU 52-San Diego St. 0...T.30-6 T.49/275 S.24/31 T.22/26/0/349 S.11/25/2/56 T.1 S.0)
(06-TCU -17 52-0 05-Tcu -6' 23-20...SR: TCU 2-0)
ADDED GAMES
SOUTHERN MISS 29 - Arkansas State 23--Host Eagles are just 1-3 SU & vs. spread last 4 at Hattiesburg. ASU's indomitable soph QB Leonard (game-winning TDP on final play of game vs. UNT last week), top-notch soph RB Arnold, and scrappy defense find ways to keep Indians hanging around.
(05-Southern Miss -16' 31-19 (New Orleans Bowl)...SR: Southern Miss 6-3)
*LA.-LAFAYETTE 30 - La.-Monroe 28--Monroe's upset of Alabama sets up HC Charlie Weatherbie's Warhawks for a possible letdown against rival Lafayette this week. While Monroe RB Calvin Dawson figures to get his yards against yielding Lafayette defensive front, Ragin' Cajun counterpart Tyrell Fenroy has 363 YR in Lafayette's last 3 games. Although jr. QB Desormeaux reinjured his clavicle last week, sr. backup Connor Morel keyed the victory by completing 12 of 15 passes.
(06-Mon. 39-LAF. 20...L.24-16 M.33/173 L.41/173 M.11/18/0/244 L.22/42/3/189 M.1 L.0)
(06-Ulm +3 39-20 05-Ull +2' 54-21 04-ULM -4 13-10...SR: La.-Monroe 21-20)
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25
Denver 20 - CHICAGO 17--With the Bears just as inconsistent on defense, at RB, and in their OL as they are at QB, will side with quicker Denver, which is capable of throwing some speedy pass rushers and tight coverage at Rex Grossman (will Lovie turn back to Griese?). Even with its own myriad problems, young Broncos now have lots of valuable experience, with several (DE Dumervil, WR Marshall) becoming solid contributors. (03-Chicago +10' 19-10...SR: EVEN 6-6)
Tennessee 27 - CINCINNATI 20--Because Tennessee takes its rushing game (No. 4 in NFL prior to Monday nighter in Denver) and defense (No. 2) on the road, Titans have become a "tough out" as a visitor (6-1 last 7 SU prior to Bronco game). And defense is certainly not the strong suit of the banged-up Bengals (31st overall; 27th vs. the run thru Week 10). Carson Palmer, betrayed by his OL & RBs, suffered four ints. last week. Vince Young (only 4 TDP, but 10 ints. prior to MNF) struggling somewhat, but note Cincy only 1-8 last 9 if home dog.
(05-Cincinnati -3 31-23...SR: Tennessee 38-31-1)
JACKSONVILLE 16 - Buffalo 13--David Garrard returned with success last week vs. S.D., with two TDP, no sacks, and no interceptions (none for season so far). Meanwhile, the Bills got seriously killed to death by the Pats last week. But, given the nature of the NFL, no surprise to see them put up a stubborn performance, especially if Marshawn Lynch (751 YR) back from sprained ankle. Bills 14-5 last 19 as dog.
(06-BUF. 27-Jack. 24...J.19-13 J.35/207 B.23/72 B.21/28/1/169 J.16/22/0/116 B.0 J.1)
(06-BUFFALO +3 27-24...SR: Buffalo 4-3)
Oakland 19 - KANSAS CITY 13--There aren't many teams against whom Oakland enjoys a QB edge these days. But with Brodie Croyle virtually getting the job by default in K.C., this might be one of those spots. Daunte Culpepper showed there's plenty of life left in his arm at Minnesota (344 YP), while Justin Fargas (578 YR in 2007) adding speed on the ground. Chiefs' complementary weapons not inspiring much confidence these days, especially with Larry Johnson still hurting and Priest Holmes not the same RB he was a few years ago. PK Janikowski (5 FGs last week) the Raiders' best weapon lately, but that's enough to get Oakland over the hump in this one.
(07-K. City 12-OAK. 10...K.14-10 K.32/126 O.24/55 O.18/29/1/213 K.16/32/1/164 K.0 O.1)
(06-K. CITY 17-Oak. 13...K.21-18 K.37/200 O.34/133 O.15/25/1/193 K.9/16/0/92 K.0 O.0)
(06-K. City 20-OAK. 9...K.19-18 K.38/150 O.24/112 O.27/37/2/195 K.12/24/1/142 K.0 O.3)
(07-K. City +2' 12-10; 06-K. CITY -9 17-13, K. City -7 20-9...SR: Kansas City 52-43-2)
Houston 34 - CLEVELAND 27--Before going any further, must note that Cleveland has gone "over" 9-0-1 in '07! And with Matt Schaub back at the controls for Houston, we'll get the "over" recommendation out of the way first. But Browns also going "over" because of numerous defensive shortcomings, with rush "D" a season-long sieve and DL unable to generate any consistent pressure on opposing QBs (Cleve. 29th in sacks), such that even stagnant Ravens exploited them last week. With Schaub and star WR Andre Johnson (73-yard TDC vs. Saints) back in the lineup, Texan offense can strike vertically.
(06-HOU. 14-Cleve. 6...C.19-11 C.28/127 H.26/94 C.25/34/1/179 H.9/15/1/83 H.0 C.2)
(06-HOUSTON -5 14-6...SR: EVEN 2-2)
Seattle 23 - ST. LOUIS 16--Seattle's Oct. 21 home victory over the injury-depleted St. Louis was a virtual walkover, with Seahawks collecting 7 sacks and 5 takeaways. Yes, Rams have recorded back-to-back road wins, but over fading New Orleans and the punchless 49ers. Meanwhile, Seattle QB Hasselbeck (337 YP) was intellectually near the top of his game last week vs. the Bears, and the quickness of RB Maurice Morris (87 YR) a welcome addition. Seahawk WR corps back intact, while St. Louis (6 sacks last week) still crippled up front on offense.
(07-SEA. 33-St. Lou. 6...Se.19-15 Se.32/100 St.17/53 Se.18/35/1/189 St.21/40/3/168 Se.0 St.2)
(06-Sea. 30-ST. LOU. 28...St.21-20 Se.28/125 St.22/59 St.26/39/1/309 Se.19/34/0/239 Se.1 St.1)
(06-SEA. 24-St. Lou. 22...Se.19-18 Se.26/160 St.20/108 St.26/40/1/191 Se.15/23/0/123 Se.2 St.0)
(07-SEATTLE -8 33-6; 06-Seattle -3 30-28, SEATTLE -3' 24-22...SR: St. Louis 10-9)
NY GIANTS 24 - Minnesota 13--With veteran Chester Taylor (career-best 164 YR vs. Oakland) available, Minny would be foolish to rush prize property Adrian Peterson and his sprained knee ligament back into action. But the minimal QBing of the Vikes (53% completions, only 5 TDP) is likely to leave them vulnerable to the N.Y. pass rushers (34 sacks). And pass defense has been Minnesota's weakness for two years. Can Eli Manning avoid the second-half-of-the-season slips that have hampered the Giants' in recent years? (05-Minnesota +9 24-21...SR: Minnesota 11-10)
New Orleans 27 - CAROLINA 20--The Panthers are mysteriously frustrating their fans TY, going 0-4 SU & vs. the spread in Charlotte. Can Vinny Testaverde (recently turned 44) or sore-spined David Carr snap them out of that slump vs. revenged-minded N.O. and its quick-hitting passing attack? Such is not likely, especially with WR Steve Smith (out last week due to shin injury) sidelined and Julius Peppers (only 2? sacks) having virtually disappeared from NFL highlights TY. Erratic Saints & Drew Brees likely to produce more points.
(07-Car. 16-N. ORL. 13...N.23-12 N.28/89 C.28/88 N.29/47/2/252 C.11/19/1/155 C.0 N.0)
(06-CAR. 21-N. Orl. 18...N.22-20 C.29/167 N.23/63 N.28/38/0/344 C.19/29/0/157 C.0 N.1)
(06-Car. 31-N. ORL. 21...C.20-13 C.33/106 N.17/61 N.20/29/1/236 C.23/27/0/207 C.0 N.1)
(07-Carolina +3 16-13; 06-CAROLINA -7 21-18, Carolina -3 31-21...SR: Carolina 15-10)
Washington 16 - TAMPA BAY 14--Buccaneers improved, but their close-to-the-vest offense should play right into the hands of Washington, which usually doesn't mind grind-'em-out affairs. Emerging QB Jason Campbell has more quality targets (WRs Moss, Randle El & McCardell, and H-back Cooley) than does T.B.'s Garcia. With some new quickness on the Bucs' defense, T.B. has gone "under" 10 of last 15 overall.
(06-T. BAY 20-Wash. 17...T.19-15 T.42/181 W.20/64 W.19/34/0/188 T.14/21/1/178 T.1 W.1)
(06-TAMPA BAY -3 20-17...SR: EVEN 8-8)
UNDER THE TOTAL ARIZONA 22 - San Francisco 6--Even with the "price" rising, only one way to go with the side here until S.F. (0-8 SU, 1-7 vs. spread last 8) can find some punch. That's not likely to happen vs. 2007 NFC West nouveau contender Arizona (3-1 SU & vs. spread at home TY), which is enjoying being in the race. 49er defense (6 sacks last week) still hustling, but S.F. scoring just 9 ppg its last 8. Kurt Warner more careful in HC Whisenhunt's offense, which is keeping defenses honest with the run.
(07-S. FRAN. 20-Ariz. 17...A.20-16 A.38/161 S.22/92 S.15/31/0/102 A.14/28/2/100 S.1 A.0)
(06-ARIZ. 34-S. Fran. 27...A.23-19 S.18/107 A.29/84 S.23/40/0/286 A.23/37/0/283 A.1 S.2)
(06-Ariz. 26-S. FRAN. 20...A.21-14 A.41/123 S.12/49 A.18/26/0/249 S.18/29/1/174 A.1 S.1)
(07-S. FRAN. -3 20-17; 06-ARIZONA -8' 34-27, Arizona +4 26-20...SR: San Francisco 18-14)
SAN DIEGO 27 - Baltimore 12--Despite their many 2007 disappointments, the Norv Turner Chargers have been a formidable home team (4-1 vs. the spread). Meanwhile, the Ravens have fought hard this year, but not particularly well (1-9 vs. the spread!). Subbing for Steve McNair last week, Kyle Boller suffered 6 sacks, 1 fumble, and 2 ints., one of them returned for a 100-yard TD! That means Shawne Merriman (5? sacks) and CB Antonio Cromartie (6 ints.) will be licking their chops.
(06-BALT. 16-S. Diego 13...B.14-13 S.41/150 B.21/56 B.17/30/2/150 S.13/23/1/134 B.1 S.0)
(06-BALTIMORE +2 16-13...SR: Baltimore 3-2)
*NEW ENGLAND 45 - Philadelphia 17--Rematch of the Super Bowl three seasons ago. However, with T.O. having taken his act to Dallas and Donovan McNabb (check ankle injury) in decline, it's tough to expect Philly to keep pace with the loaded 2007 Patriots, especially with Randy Moss (16 TDC) having turned into a dynamic model citizen and the inordinately precise Tom Brady (38 TDs, only 4 ints.!) apparently on the all-time QB roll. They again please their N.E. fans while the Pats' LBs keep Brian Westbrook well under control. TV--NBC
(04-N. Eng. -7 24-21 (Super Bowl XXXIX at Jacksonville)...SR: Philadelphia 6-4)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26
*PITTSBURGH 35 - Miami 10--Willie Parker (925 YR) is making no secret of the fact he's after the rushing title now that Adrian Peterson's injury has opened the door. And Ben Roethlisberger (23 TDs, only 8 ints.) is close to his Super Bowl form after LY's injuries. The Dolphins might activate Ricky Williams for this game. But Williams or no, rookie QB John Beck is likely to be plenty mystified by Pittsburgh's array of zone blitzes. Just a couple of turnovers might help the Steelers (4-1 vs. the spread at home) bounce back with a vengeance after last week's "soft" performance visiting the Jets. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-PITT 28-Miami 17...P.20-15 P.38/143 M.18/38 M.18/37/2/240 P.15/25/0/196 P.1 M.0)
(06-PITTSBURGH -1 28-17...SR: Miami 11-10)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Miami and Pittsburgh on Monday Night
Miami is 6-15 straight-up and 9-11-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
32-17 straight-up and 29-20 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Pittsburgh is 21-5 straight-up and 19-7 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
13-17 straight-up and 15-14-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
NFL KEY RELEASES
OAKLAND by 6 over Kansas City
HOUSTON by 7 over Cleveland
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
UNDER THE TOTAL in the San Francisco-Arizona game
College Analysis
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *?indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P?Pick Game. SR?Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL?No Line. OPR?Average Opponents? Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC?Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). ?O??Offense. ?D??Defense. DDs?Double Digits. OL?Offensive Line or Lineman. DL?Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.?Offensive Coordinator. d.c.?Defensive Coordinator. YR?Yards Rushing. YP?Yards Passing. recs.?Receptions. ints.?Interceptions. STs?Special Teams. ypg?Yards per Game. ppg?Points per Game. ypc?Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY?Last Year. TY?This Year. Y?Year or Years. TDP?Touchdown Passes. FA?Free Agent. SU?Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22
*ARZIONA STATE 24 - Southern Cal 20--Acknowledge Pete Carroll's 22-0 SU record in November since taking over at SC in '01. But by this stage of campaign, we've seen enough of this Trojan edition not to compare it with the high-powered Palmer/Leinart/Bush offensive machines from earlier in decade (Troy has exceeded 27 points just once in last 7 games). If anything, ASU's efforts more impressive this season, and as long as QB Carpenter's sore thumb properly healed after "bye" week, Sun Devils get closer to coveted BCS berth. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-S. CAL 28-Ariz. St. 21...S.18-13 S.36/159 A.33/121 S.12/25/1/148 A.12/21/0/124 S.1 A.1)
(06-USC -19 28-21 05-Usc -15 38-28 04-USC -10' 45-7...SR: Southern Cal 14-9)
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 23
Central Michigan 27 - AKRON 16--CMU has a significant QB edge, as Chips' Dan LeFevour is 9th in the country in total offense, while Zip counterpart Chris Jaquemain has completed just 39% in his last 4 games with 7 ints. & just 4 TD passes. CMU HC Butch Jones undoubtedly would like his team to get back on winning track in preparation for upcoming MAC title game against Miami-Ohio. Unless Jaquemain comes up with an aberrational performance, CMU wins with relative ease. CABLE TV--ESPNU
(06-C. MICH. 24-Akron 21...A.24-16 C.36/129 A.31/61 A.25/46/3/375 C.16/23/1/162 C.1 A.0)
(06-CENTRAL MICH. +1 24-21 05-Central Mich. +10' 31-17...SR: Central Michigan 11-9-1)
COLORADO 37 - Nebraska 27--After jr. backup QB Joe Ganz led 7-TDP, 702-yard, 73-point explosion for Nebraska vs. K-State, NU offense brimming with confidence. It must be noted, however, that the thin, rebuilding Husker defense is giving up a lofty 35.5 ppg, 8 points more than host Colorado. Both teams are 5-6 and need this one for bowl eligibility. In that case, will favor the better defense, chemistry, creativity and kicking game of Buffaloes, who have often been at their best in recent years vs. their rivals from Lincoln. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-NEB. 37-Colo. 14...N.24-14 N.46/190 C.31/166 N.20/30/0/278 C.11/23/0/131 N.2 C.0)
(06-NEB. -14 37-14 05-Neb. +16 30-3 04-Colo. +2' 26-20...SR: Nebraska 46-17-2)
MISSISSIPPI STATE 35 - Mississippi 21--In the "Egg Bowl," prefer to lay single digits with resurgent, bowl-bound MSU squad that had season-high 501 yds. in 45-31 setback at Arkansas. With Bulldogs emerging frosh QB Carroll (421 YP, but 4 ints. vs. Hogs) cleaning up his mistakes, look for coming State attack to repeatedly burn talent-shy Ole Miss defense (last in SEC in scoring & rush "D"). Meanwhile, floundering Rebels in danger of 1st winless SEC season since '92, and embroiled HC Orgeron's late-season QB shuffling not a positive.
(06-MISS. 20-Miss. St. 17...S.19-10 S.35/152 U.27/58 S.16/34/1/162 U.10/23/0/142 U.0 S.0)
(06-MISS. -3 20-17 05-MSU +2 35-14 04-MISS. -5' 20-3...SR: Mississippi 59-38-6)
COLORADO STATE 26 - Wyoming 17--Perhaps intense border rivalry vs. hated foe will provide jolt that stumbling Wyo (0-7-1 vs. line last 8 TY) has been missing since September. Then again, maybe it won't. CSU at least playing hard down stretch, with RB G. Johnson (5.5 ypc L6 games) emerging as a force. And possible huge emotional effort could be forthcoming from Rams if this is beloved HC Sonny Lubick's last game (pending retirement rumors rife in Rockies).
(06-WYO. 24-Colo. St. 0...W.15-12 W.39/166 C.22/42 C.23/45/2/217 W.10/22/0/152 W.0 C.1)
(06-WYO. -4 24-0 05-CSU -3' 39-31 04-CSU -4' 30-7...SR: Colorado State 53-40-5)
BOWLING GREEN 41 - Toledo 28--Realize it's a dicey play to back BG at Doyt Perry Stadium, where the Falcons had dropped 9 straight spread decisions until whipping Akron 44-20 Nov. 2. However, Falcon QB Sheehan (64%, 20 TD passes) and his array of weapons (WR Barnes 72 catches; "slash" back Turner 250 YR, 4 TDs rushing, 2 TD passes & 13 recs. last 3 games) will do a lot of damage facing Toledo defense yielding the most points in the country. CABLE TV--ESPNU
(06-TOLEDO 31-B. Green 21...B.20-16 T.47/208 B.31/76 B.24/42/1/246 T.10/13/0/107 T.0 B.0)
(06-TOL. -6' 31-21 05-Tol. +6' 44-41 (OT) 04-TOL. +4' 49-41...SR: Bowling Green 36-31-4)
LSU 34 - Arkansas 27--Now that Arkansas QB Dick (career-best 14 of 17 & 4 TDP vs. Miss. St.) is finally able to take some pressure off future NFL 1st-rounder RB McFadden (1519 YR, 5.6 ypc), capable 7-4 Hogs able to hang inside number vs. top-ranked LSU, which is a money-burnin' 1-10 vs. spread last 11 as SEC host (0-3 TY). Arkansas fighting especially hard for embattled, well-liked HC Nutt, while top-ranked LSU compelled to stay healthy with SEC title game on horizon. Remember, McFadden rambled for 182 YR without much help from Dick (an ugly 3 of 17 passing) in competitive 31-26 series loss LY. Take. TV--CBS
(06-Lsu 31-ARK. 26...A.16-15 A.39/298 L.36/118 L.14/22/0/210 A.5/20/1/62 L.2 A.0)
(06-Lsu -1' 31-26 at LR 05-LSU -17 19-17 04-Lsu -3' 43-14 at LR...SR: LSU 34-17-2)
Texas 25 - TEXAS A&M 23--Last game for Dennis Franchione in College Station? The events of last week mean a Texas win keeps the Longhorns alive in the Big XII South. Colt McCoy is seeking redemption after he played hurt in LY's game and tossed 3 interceptions. And the speedy Jamaal Charles has ignited the UT ground assault with 644 YR in just the last three games. But Longhorns not a dominating team TY, and A&M option QB McGee has developed his passing in recent games. The Aggie defense has seen six spread-option attacks TY (although it has often left plenty to be desired). REG. TV--ABC
(06-Tex. A&M 12-TEXAS 7...A.17-16 A.51/244 U.25/70 U.17/29/4/160 A.7/13/0/58 A.1 U.0)
(06-Tam +13' 12-7 05-Texas -28 40-29 04-TEXAS -10' 26-13...SR: Texas 73-35-5)
*Boise State 40 - HAWAII 33--In a rare WAC showdown with BCS implications, Boise (which has outside BCS hopes of its own) certainly won't be lacking for confidence after beating Hawaii last 6 meetings! And conference scouts remain a bit skeptical about veteran Warrior "D" that has lacked some of the edge under 1st-year d.c. McMackin it played with under Jerry Glanville the last few years. Even with Colt Brennan available for June Jones' Red Gun, red-hot Bronco QB Tharp (27 TDP) and host of Boise weapons capable of surviving another expected shootout. CABLE TV--ESPN2
(06-BOISE ST. 41-Hawaii 34...B.26-24 B.44/242 H.18/88 H.25/37/1/388 B.17/29/1/273 B.0 H.2)
(06-BSU -14' 41-34 05-Bsu -10' 44-41 04-BSU -22' 69-3...SR: Boise State 6-2)
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 24
South Florida 28 - PITTSBURGH 13--Panthers have been righteous dog TY, covering 4 of 5 when getting points. But compelled to back profitable Bulls (13-6 vs. spread last 19 on board). Touted frosh RB Ford (274 YR & 4 TDs last 2 games; originally signed with Alabama) giving versatile soph QB Grothe greater ground support recently. Conversely, Pitt frosh RB McCoy unlikely to make much headway against soph DE Selvie (nation-leading 30? tackles for loss!) & speedy South Florida defense.
(06-S. FLA. 22-Pitt 12...S.18-12 S.48/190 P.23/55 S.20/26/2/187 P.11/23/3/159 S.2 P.0)
(06-USF +4' 22-12 05-PITT -1' 31-17 04-Pitt -6' 43-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)
WEST VIRGINIA 31 - Connecticut 19--Mountaineers own inside track to Big East title and have been climbing back up BCS rankings since early loss at South Florida. Doubt they'll be derailed at Morgantown. But no big surprise if visiting Huskies (covered 7 of last 8) able to hang inside roomy impost. They have a productive rushing attack & an underrated defense, and well-coached UConn (only 11 turnovers TY) takes care of rock.
(06-West Va. 37-CONN. 11...17-17 W.42/263 C.33/95 W.9/14/1/156 C.15/34/2/115 W.1 C.0)
(06-Wva -23 37-11 05-WVA -15 45-13 04-Wva -6' 31-19...SR: West Virginia 3-0)
UCF 52 - Utep 24--Sure, Miners have some offensive firepower. But not nearly enough to compensate for their awful defense. Plummeting UTEP has lost 5 straight (1-4 vs. spread), permitting 45 ppg during that recent tailspin. A berth in C-USA title game is within Knights' grasp. They'll ride star jr. TB Kevin Smith (1945 YR & league-record 25 TDs) to easy win. (FIRST MEETING)
Missouri 34 - Kansas 31--Remarkable Kansas (11-0 SU, 10-0 vs. the spread) is on the verge of pointspread history with its season-long run. But Missouri (10-1 & 8-2) is not far behind. And the Tigers have played the tougher schedule, with jr. QB Daniel (69.3%, 30 TDs, 9 ints.) more battle-tested than Jayhawks' confident soph Reesing (63.3%, 30 TDs, 4 ints.). KU's RB McAnderson (514 YR last 4 games) is the most powerful force on the field, but Mizzou WR/KR Maclin (3 return TDs; 16 TDs overall) is the most dynamic. The Jayhawks have CB Talib and hold some statistical edges (scoring defense, TO margin, etc.), but Daniel's greater experience under pressure could be the key. (at Kansas City, MO)
(06-MO. 42-Kansas 17...M.27-14 K.29/160 M.37/137 M.26/38/0/356 K.12/23/1/162 M.0 K.1)
(06-MO. -7' 42-17 05-KANSAS +5 13-3 04-Kansas +11 31-14...SR: EVEN 53-53-9)
NORTH CAROLINA 33 - Duke 24--Blue Devils (dropped last 5 vs. spread) wrapping up another miserable campaign. There's a lot more optimism in Chapel Hill, and Butch Davis should lead his young Tar Heels to a 4th straight victory in series. But there are enough holes in UNC 2ndary for Duke QB Lewis (19 TDP) to go down firing.
(06-N. Car. 45-DUKE 44...N.18-16 N.32/200 D.27/103 D.21/36/2/291 N.20/31/1/253 N.2 D.0)
(06-Unc -7 45-44 05-UNC -21' 24-21 04-Unc -6' 40-17...SR: North Carolina 54-35-4)
VANDERBILT 26 - Wake Forest 21--Although Commodores off painful, come-from-ahead 25-24 loss at Tennessee (Vandy was outscored 16-0 in 4th), still favor highly-motivated 'Dores, who'll become bowl eligible with their 1st-non losing season since '82 with victory here. WF has defeated only defenseless Duke and Navy on road TY, and doubt Deacons clever field general Skinner will find his mojo vs. an aggressive, seasoned Vandy defense (only 19 ppg in last 5 home games) that disguises its schemes well.
(05-Vanderbilt +8' 24-20...SR: Vanderbilt 7-3)
NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20 - Maryland 13--Winner likely headed to minor bowl, while loser will miss out on postseason. Maryland (fewer than 100 YR in 3 of last 4) having a hard time establishing ground game behind its paper-thin OL. A measured vote to N.C. State & versatile soph RB Eugene, although poor decisions by volatile jr. QB Evans (2 TDP, 5 ints. in last 2 games) could prove Wolfpack's undoing.
(06-MARY. 26-Ncsu 20...N.17-11 M.41/165 N.38/154 N.15/26/2/145 M.7/9/0/115 M.1 N.1)
(06-MARY. -2 26-20 05-NCS -3 20-14 04-Ncs +2' 13-3...SR: North Carolina St. 30-29-4)
Cincinnati 37 - SYRACUSE 10--First-year Bearcat HC Brian Kelly a pointspread dynamo, going 25-7-3 against line last 2+ seasons at C. Michigan & Cincy. Hard-pressed to come up with compelling reasons to support Syracuse & its floundering West Coast attack, which hasn't produced more than 2 TDs in any of last 7 games. Not much home-field edge for Orange at Carrier Dome these days.
(06-CINCY 17-Syr. 3...C.16-12 C.42/147 S.31/61 C.13/18/2/205 S.13/29/0/119 C.0 S.0)
(06-CINCY -6' 17-3 05-Cincy +5' 22-16 04-SYR. +2' 19-7...SR: Syracuse 4-3)
SOUTH CAROLINA 24 - Clemson 23--Now that deflated Clemson has been knocked out of ACC title game with last-minute 20-17 home upset loss vs. Boston College, recommend rested, 6-5 South Carolina, whose clever mentor Spurrier has had extra time to scheme. Like '06, 'Cocks 6-3 sr. QB Mitchell (290+ YP last 4 starts) has been steady since returning from bench. Tigers' productive triggerman Harper won't easily find open targets vs. Carolina 2ndary (SEC-best 163 ypg; 54%, 13 ints.). Also, kicking edge goes to Cocks' strong-legged PK/P Succop (29 of 37 FGs L1+Ys; 42-yd. avg.).
(06-S. Car. 31-CLEM. 28...S.28-15 S.35/208 C.33/181 S.24/37/3/284 C.13/19/1/191 S.1 C.1)
(06-Usc +5' 31-28 05-Clem. -3 13-9 04-CLEM. -3 29-7...SR: Clemson 63-37-2)
Buffalo 27 - KENT STATE 19--Kent State 4th-team QB Jon Brown last week showed why he was buried on depth chart, completing just 11 of 27 passes with 0 TDs and 4 ints. at Temple. Conversely, Buffalo QB Drew Willy has completed 67% this season, and Bulls are significantly improved on defense and special teams in upwardly-mobile HC Turner Gill's second (and last?) season in Buffalo. Flash ace RB Eugene Jarvis was held to just 57 YR last week, as now defenses can stack to contain the jitterbug Jarvis as a result of Brown's passing problems.
(06-BUF. 41-Kent St. 14...K.16-15 B.34/176 K.34/103 K.18/34/2/195 B.14/20/1/193 B.1 K.3)
(06-BUF. +15' 41-14 05-Buf. +7 10-6 04-Ksu -8 33-7...SR: Kent State 8-7)
EAST CAROLINA 39 - Tulane 23--Green Wave RB Matt Forte powered for another 194 yards and 5 TDs (now up to 2007 YR & 22) last week vs. defenseless Rice. But ECU (allowing 3.95 ypc) is bigger and tougher up front than the Owls, and the offensively better-balanced Pirates were scoring 42 ppg in C-USA games TY until uncharacteristic 26-7 road loss at Marshall two weeks ago. (04-EAST CAROLINA -3' 27-25...SR: East Carolina 6-2)
Tennessee 37 - KENTUCKY 28--Since SEC East frontrunner UT (wins tie-breaker with UGA) managed to escape in 25-24 come-back thriller vs. Vandy, expect error-free Vols (SEC-low 12 giveaways) to extend their 22-game win streak vs. Kentucky squad that has dropped 3 of last 4. UT's highly-efficient,untouched sr. QB Ainge (sacked only thrice in 391 attempts, 65%, 20 TDs, 5 ints.) makes a few more big plays than Wildcats slipping star passer Woodson, who failed to generate a TD in final 3 Qs of disappointing 24-13 setback at Georgia.
(06-TENN. 17-Ky. 12...K.24-23 K.30/128 T.34/96 K.26/39/0/282 T.19/33/0/240 T.1 K.0)
(06-TENN. -20' 17-12 05-Tenn. -9 27-8 04-TENN. -23' 37-31...SR: Tennessee 70-23-9)
OHIO 31 - Miami-Ohio 17--Rested Ohio U. and sr. star RB Kalvin McRae (162 ypg rushing & 11 rush TDs last 5 games; career 4286 YR & 48 TDs) should be highly motivated in final game at Peden Stadium. Bobcats will say goodbye to 17 seniors (14 in two-deep) against rival Miami-O. squad that has its spot in MAC Championship all locked up. RedHawk offense doesn't convert yards into points as well as it should (107th in scoring at 19 ppg), and QB Daniel Raudabaugh is coming off a 3-int. game in unimpressive 7-0 win at home against Akron. Bobcat seniors secure 6th victory & gain bowl-eligibility.
(06-Ohio 34-MIAMI-O. 24...M.19-16 O.44/304 M.26/128 M.20/36/1/180 O.10/17/1/133 O.2 M.2)
(06-Ohio -3 34-24 05-Miami -9 38-7 04-MIAMI -19 40-20...SR: Miami-Ohio 51-30-2)
Utah 25 - BYU 22--Annual "Beehive Boot" battles (last two decided on final play!) even more exciting to locals than Oprah's recent Osmonds reunion show. And slight edge to hot Utah (covered last 6 TY), thanks to better-balanced "O," playmaking QB B. Johnson, and "D" that's allowed just one TD (and that came after a TO vs. New Mexico) in last 14 Qs of play. Well-defined series trends (dog 9-1 last 10; visitor 12-3 last 15) further support Ute argument.
(06-Byu 33-UTAH 31...B.27-26 U.33/98 B.24/54 U.25/41/0/376 B.28/44/0/375 B.0 U.0)
(06-Byu -3' 33-31 05-Utah +10 41-34 (OT) 04-UTAH -20 52-21...SR: Utah 49-29-4)
MEMPHIS 37 - Smu 22--Jelling Memphis (won & covered 4 of last 5) headed to minor bowl, while 1-10 SMU just playing out string for lame-duck HC Phil Bennett. In their final home game, Tigers' trigger-happy sr. QB Hankins (1771 YP in last 5 games) & sr. RB Doss (168 YR last week) will go out with a bang against pliable Pony defense that's yielding nearly 300 ypg passing & more than 5 ypc. (DNP...SR: Memphis 1-0)
Tulsa 38 - RICE 36--Visiting Golden Hurricane looking to sew up spot in C-USA title game. Rice's defense might be too weak to keep former mentor Graham from achieving that goal. But without a reliable ground hammer to complement star sr. QB Paul Smith (3886 YP & 34 TDP!), tough for visiting Tulsa to keep Owl QB Clement (18 TDP & 6 rush scores in just last 5 games) from trading points.
(06-Rice 41-TULSA 38 (OT)...T.26-18 T.52/260 R.33/147 T.17/29/1/308 R.14/37/0/209 R.0 T.3)
(06-Rice +14 41-38 (OT) 05-Tulsa -7 41-21 04-TULSA +1 39-22...SR: Rice 7-4-1)
UCLA 24 - Oregon 23--Not sure that UCLA can do enough to save Karl Dorrell's job if skittery 4th-string QB Rashaan at controls. But Bruins have displayed a circle-the-wagons mentality in recent years, especially at Rose Bowl, where they're 18-5 vs. number last 23 and unbeaten vs. line last 5 as dog. Oregon "O" just not the same with Brady Leaf in at QB for the injured Dennis Dixon, and not interested laying any points with Ducks after their national title dreams evaporated in Tucson.
(06-OREGON 30-Ucla 20...O.21-17 O.43/256 U.30/104 O.11/22/1/148 U.16/31/1/112 O.1 U.0)
(06-OREGON -9' 30-20 04-Ucla +7 34-26...SR: UCLA 38-22)
AUBURN 20 - Alabama 19--Now that number rising following Bama's shocking 21-14 home loss vs. UL Monroe, will take inflated price with angry, embarrassed, ridiculed Tide squad itchin' to end 5-game series losing streak. Auburn QB Cox's self-confidence waning again (4 ints. vs. Georgia; SEC-low 9 TDP), and his run-oriented, undynamic attack (24 pts. or fewer in 12 of past 13 vs. BCS conference foes) won't uncharacteristically erupt vs. a fired-up Bama defense. If Tide's usually-effective QB J.P. Wilson maintains his poise, Saban's squad hangs close again (all 5 losses TY by TD or fewer). Bama 8-2-2 as TD+ road dog since '97. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-Auburn 22-ALABAMA 15...Al.18-14 Au.40/124 Al.30/112 Al.18/33/1/252 Au.6/14/0/137 Au.1 Al.3)
(06-Auburn -3 22-15 05-AUBURN -7 28-18 04-Auburn -10' 21-13...SR: Alabama 38-32-1)
Georgia 30 - GEORGIA TECH 14--Lack of success against despised Georgia, which has captured last 6 in series, a major reason why Tech HC Chan Gailey on tenterhooks in Atlanta. Will a win save his job? Maybe, but that's easier said than done against burgeoning Bulldogs, who are riding 5-game 2007 win streak. Eager to lay cheap price with UGa's blossoming soph QB Stafford & revelatory RS frosh RB Moreno (766 YR & 9 TDs in last 5 games). Bulldogs won and covered last 3 visits here.
(06-GA. 15-Ga. Tech 12...U.18-12 T.35/146 U.37/84 U.16/29/0/171 T.6/22/2/42 U.1 T.1)
(06-GEORGIA -2' 15-12 05-Georgia -4 14-7 04-GEORGIA -15 19-13...SR: Georgia 58-36-5)
IDAHO 27 - Utah State 20--In the WAC equivalent of a Democratic Presidential debate where only Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel show up, we're tempted to jump on USU bandwagon (such as it is) that's recruiting new riders after Ags broke 16-game losing streak last week. But there are a few more difference-makers (such as RB D. Jackson & CB Franks) on Idaho side.
(06-Idaho 41-UTAH ST. 21...U.22-18 I.35/128 U.35/119 I.10/20/0/188 U.19/27/2/186 I.1 U.1)
(06-Idaho -2' 41-21 05-IDAHO +2 27-13 04-USU -11' 14-7...SR: Idaho 16-15-2)
FLORIDA 42 - Florida State 24--Sure, FSU is a rare DD road dog (1-1 since '97). But believe explosive Florida (43 ppg) eventually covers impost behind super-soph Heisman hopeful Tebow (1st QB in NCAA history with at least 20 TDs both passing & rushing in same season) welcoming back versatile, speedy WR Harvin (45 grabs; missed last 2 games with sinus condition). Conversely, expect 'Noles up-and-down QB Weatherford (3 ints. in '06 tilt) to be on downer in "The Swamp," since his play-action passes rendered mostly ineffective again with stodgy ground attack stymied by UF's run-stuffing front 7 (just 99 ypg, 3.0 ypc).
(06-Fla. 21-FLA. ST. 14...U.16-11 U.32/105 S.18/46 U.21/35/0/283 S.18/43/3/189 U.1 S.0)
(06-Fla. -9 21-14 05-FLA. -4 34-7 04-Fla. +7 20-13...SR: Florida 30-19-2)
OKLAHOMA 37 - Oklahoma State 27--With OU likely needing a win to clinch the Big XII South (unless Texas loses), superior defensive personnel of Sooners should get them there...but not before 60 minutes of "bedlam" have expired. OSU's offense has become unflappable (39 ppg last 5) since 6-3 soph Zac Robinson began executing the Cowboy spread with aplomb. And the OU defense continues to have periodic lapses at inopportune times. Sooners' hopes for a shot at the BCS title game now gone; check status of QB Bradford (concussion).
(06-Okla. 27-OKLA. ST. 21...S.20-19 U.47/238 S.39/119 S.17/31/0/243 U.7/11/0/77 U.0 S.1)
(06-Okla. -5' 27-21 05-OKLA. -19' 42-14 04-Okla. -13' 38-35...SR: Oklahoma 78-15-7)
Nevada 33 - SAN JOSE STATE 27--Be careful before laying too many points with Nevada, which has been involved in a series of hair-raisers in '07. And SJSU a lot more competent at home (8-1 vs. line since LY), where hot QB Tafralis has passed for 300+ yards in all four games TY. But big balance edge owned by Chris Ault's Wolf Pack Pistol, featuring slamming RB Lippincott (5.6 ypc), and Nevada needs win to keep flickering bowl hopes alive.
(06-NEVADA 23-Sjsu 7...N.25-13 N.55/230 S.27/162 N.20/28/1/178 S.10/22/1/77 N.1 S.2)
(06-NEVADA -13 23-7 05-Nevada -3' 30-23 04-NEVADA -14 42-24...SR: Nevada 12-7-2)
Ball State 30 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 23--NIU hasn't quit under vet HC Joe Novak, as young team has covered last two following humiliating 70-pt. defensive "effort" against Toledo. Husky soph RB Justin Anderson has gained 128 ypg rushing in last 9 games, and QB torch has been passed from sr. Dan Nicholson to promising soph Ryan Morris (21 of 35 for 206 YP & 2 TDs last week). Ball State is 13-3 vs. the number last 16 on the road, but only two of those games were double-digit Cardinal wins.
(06-N. Ill. 40-BALL ST. 28...N.24-21 N.41/358 B.26/78 B.29/40/0/307 N.20/27/0/252 N.1 B.1)
(06-Niu -6' 40-28 05-Bsu +29 31-17 04-Niu -20' 38-31 (OT)...SR: Ball State 18-14-2)
*MARSHALL 27 - Uab 19--Don't quite trust Marshall defense (447 ypg; ranks 103rd) to cover double digits against UAB HC Neil Callaway's hard-trying Blazers. Marshall QB Bernard Morris has cooled considerably in second half of season, tossing only 3 TD passes in last 4 games after throwing at least 2 in 6 straight. The previous two meetings in series have both been hotly contested.
(06-Marshall 31-UAB 24...M.21-19 M.46/317 U.28/137 U.18/30/2/205 M.9/12/2/156 M.0 U.0)
(06-Marshall +6 31-24 05-MARSHALL +3 20-19...SR: Marshall 2-0)
FRESNO STATE 31 - Kansas State 25--KSU not exactly rallying down stretch, as ongoing defensive breakdowns (Big XII scouts alarmed at number of missed assignments and improper alignments) contributing mightily to late-season fade. And Fresno good enough to capitalize, especially with "bye" week providing necessary rest that key Bulldog weapons RB R. Matthews & TE Pascoe needed to get back in action. TV-ESPN
(04-Fresno State +12' 45-21...SR: Fresno State 1-0)
NEW MEXICO 23 - Unlv 19--Not sure what to make of UNLV announcement that HC Sanford will return in '08, as Rebs (7th straight loss) didn't exactly respond positively to the news in last week's sleepwalk at TCU. But with QB Porterie enduring a bit of a sophomore slump, low-variance UNM not offering much value itself lately (no covers last 5). Ultra-competitive recent series history suggests generous points worth considering.
(06-N. Mex. 39-UNLV 36 (OT)...U.17-14 N.39/112 U.29/84 U.18/33/2/295 N.13/27/1/168 N.0 U.2)
(06-Unm -2' 39-36 (OT) 05-UNM -15 24-22 04-Unm +2' 24-20...SR: New Mexico 8-6)
Washington State 29 - WASHINGTON 27--Will Morley Safer and the 60 Minutes crew show up in Pullman to investigate Wazzu's 8-TO meltdown vs. Oregon State? Still, Bill Doba's Cougar "D" has shown enough in recent weeks to suggest it won't get run over by U-Dub RBs as did fading Cal last week. And wouldn't want to count on Husky backup QB Bonnell (just 7 of 19 vs. Golden Bears) to extend Apple Cup margin if Jake Locker unavailable again.
(06-Wash. 35-WSU 32...S.26-14 U.31/109 S.31/102 S.32/54/0/328 U.14/27/2/271 U.0 S.1)
(06-Wash. +8' 35-32 05-Wsu -3 26-22 04-WSU -12 28-25...SR: Washington 64-29-6)
*WESTERN MICHIGAN 27 - Temple 23--Temple, which was 4-42 SU the last four years, last week logged it's 4th victory of 2007 against Kent State. Look for remarkable turnaround to continue as Owls catch Western Michigan possibly still celebrating its upset at Iowa. Broncos managed to avoid turnovers and played perhaps their best defensive game of the season at Kinnick Stadium against the Hawkeyes, but hard-trying 2007 Temple defense is a much better unit than the one that yielded 41 points in last year's visit to Kalamazoo. Owls' frosh RB Daryl Robinson (17 carries for 105 yds. vs. Kent) gives Temple a lift.
(06-W. MICH. 41-Tem. 7...W.15-12 W.34/151 T.29/9 W.15/26/0/143 T.12/26/3/140 W.1 T.1)
(06-WMU -30 41-7 05-Wmu -3' 19-16...SR: Western Michigan 5-0)
*BOSTON COLLEGE 33 - Miami-Florida 13--Motivation a major ? for BC, which has already bagged a spot in ACC title game after last week's hard-fought win at Clemson. Want no part of money-burning Miami bunch that's just 11-24 vs. spread since start of 2005, however. Hurricanes have lost 5 of last 6 SU, as their offense is mostly inept, while their once-proud defense playing with little passion. TV--ESPN
(06-MIAMI 17-Bos. Col. 14...10-10 M.34/66 B.25/24 M.13/26/3/181 B.17/34/1/169 M.1 B.1)
(06-MIAMI-FLORIDA +4 17-14...SR: Miami-Florida 23-3)
*Virginia Tech 19 - VIRGINIA 10--Winner earns spot in next week's ACC title game. Can't sell host Cavaliers short, as they have extra week of prep and a knack for pulling out close games TY (6 of UVa's 9 wins have come by total of 12 pts.!). The stout defenses figure to hold sway in this matchup, so "under" might be best percentage play. Slightly lean to visiting Tech, as its complementary QBs, pocket-passing jr. Glennon & mobile true frosh T. Taylor, have a few more weapons at their disposal.
(06-VA. TECH 17-Va. 0...T.14-5 T.45/156 U.23/46 T.12/18/1/146 U.10/21/1/66 T.0 U.1)
(06-TECH -17 17-0 05-Tech -7 52-14 04-TECH -3' 24-10...SR: Virginia Tech 46-37-5)
*STANFORD 24 - Notre Dame 17--We'd bet even Digger Phelps isn't convinced last week's win vs. lowly Duke is any sort of late-season "buy" signal for ND. Despite that result, their shaky OL, lack of playmakers, and suspect "D" remain tangible negatives for Irish. Rested Stanford has at least progressed noticeably for Jim Harbaugh in '07, and Cardinal arsenal better stocked this week with return of big-play WR Sherman from 1-game suspension.
(06-N. DAME 31-Stan. 10...N.29-14 N.39/204 S.31/72 N.27/38/0/232 S.10/18/1/154 N.0 S.0)
(06-UND -29' 31-10 05-Und -15' 38-31 04-UND -5 23-15...SR: Notre Dame 15-6)
*Tcu 29 - SAN DIEGO STATE 23--We're not going to argue with SDSU critics who maintain Aztecs didn't beat much in their 4 wins this season. But SDSU "D" might not be as vulnerable vs. the more-conventional TCU attack as it was vs. Air Force's hybrid shotgun/option that gained almost 4/10 of a mile in last week's blowout. Remember, Frogs have covered only once on road TY, and Aztec QB O'Donnell has the wheels to neutralize TCU's Blake/Ortiz pass-rush duo.
(06-TCU 52-San Diego St. 0...T.30-6 T.49/275 S.24/31 T.22/26/0/349 S.11/25/2/56 T.1 S.0)
(06-TCU -17 52-0 05-Tcu -6' 23-20...SR: TCU 2-0)
ADDED GAMES
SOUTHERN MISS 29 - Arkansas State 23--Host Eagles are just 1-3 SU & vs. spread last 4 at Hattiesburg. ASU's indomitable soph QB Leonard (game-winning TDP on final play of game vs. UNT last week), top-notch soph RB Arnold, and scrappy defense find ways to keep Indians hanging around.
(05-Southern Miss -16' 31-19 (New Orleans Bowl)...SR: Southern Miss 6-3)
*LA.-LAFAYETTE 30 - La.-Monroe 28--Monroe's upset of Alabama sets up HC Charlie Weatherbie's Warhawks for a possible letdown against rival Lafayette this week. While Monroe RB Calvin Dawson figures to get his yards against yielding Lafayette defensive front, Ragin' Cajun counterpart Tyrell Fenroy has 363 YR in Lafayette's last 3 games. Although jr. QB Desormeaux reinjured his clavicle last week, sr. backup Connor Morel keyed the victory by completing 12 of 15 passes.
(06-Mon. 39-LAF. 20...L.24-16 M.33/173 L.41/173 M.11/18/0/244 L.22/42/3/189 M.1 L.0)
(06-Ulm +3 39-20 05-Ull +2' 54-21 04-ULM -4 13-10...SR: La.-Monroe 21-20)
THE GOLDSHEET Continued :
*Florida Atlantic 30 - Florida Intl. 23--FIU losing streak now at 22 (Golden Panthers, seeking to avoid two straight winless seasons, host North Texas next week). QB Rusty Smith (21 TDP) and the Fla. Atlantic offense should win the day, but FIU now appears to have enough seasoned athletes on defense and just enough QBing (RS frosh Younger 2 TDP, 1 TDR last week) to make a game of it. (at Dolphin Stadium)
(06-Fla. Atl. 31-Fla. Intl. 0...A.22-13 A.45/142 I.19/50 A.15/22/0/219 I.15/31/1/153 A.0 I.0)
(06-Fau -4 31-0 at Dolphin Stad. 05-FIU -1' 52-6 04-Fau -13' 17-10 at DS...SR: FAU 4-1)
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
BOISE STATE by 7 over Hawaii (Friday)
TENNESSEE by 9 over Kentucky
OHIO U. by 14 over Miami-Ohio
GEORGIA by 16 over Georgia Tech
*Florida Atlantic 30 - Florida Intl. 23--FIU losing streak now at 22 (Golden Panthers, seeking to avoid two straight winless seasons, host North Texas next week). QB Rusty Smith (21 TDP) and the Fla. Atlantic offense should win the day, but FIU now appears to have enough seasoned athletes on defense and just enough QBing (RS frosh Younger 2 TDP, 1 TDR last week) to make a game of it. (at Dolphin Stadium)
(06-Fla. Atl. 31-Fla. Intl. 0...A.22-13 A.45/142 I.19/50 A.15/22/0/219 I.15/31/1/153 A.0 I.0)
(06-Fau -4 31-0 at Dolphin Stad. 05-FIU -1' 52-6 04-Fau -13' 17-10 at DS...SR: FAU 4-1)
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
BOISE STATE by 7 over Hawaii (Friday)
TENNESSEE by 9 over Kentucky
OHIO U. by 14 over Miami-Ohio
GEORGIA by 16 over Georgia Tech
Pointwise
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
CENTRAL FLORIDA over Utep RATING: 1
VANDERBILT over Wake Forest RATING: 1
SAN JOSE STATE over Nevada RATING: 2
KANSAS over Missouri RATING: 3
WEST VIRGINIA over Uconn RATING: 3
FRESNO STATE over Kansas State RATING: 4
OKLAHOMA STATE over Oklahoma RATING: 5
CINCINNATI over Syracuse RATING: 5
NFL KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND over Philadelphia RATING: 2
TAMPA BAY over Washington RATING: 3
HOUSTON over Cleveland RATING: 4
ST LOUIS over Seattle RATING: 4
JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo RATING: 5
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
CENTRAL FLORIDA over Utep RATING: 1
VANDERBILT over Wake Forest RATING: 1
SAN JOSE STATE over Nevada RATING: 2
KANSAS over Missouri RATING: 3
WEST VIRGINIA over Uconn RATING: 3
FRESNO STATE over Kansas State RATING: 4
OKLAHOMA STATE over Oklahoma RATING: 5
CINCINNATI over Syracuse RATING: 5
NFL KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND over Philadelphia RATING: 2
TAMPA BAY over Washington RATING: 3
HOUSTON over Cleveland RATING: 4
ST LOUIS over Seattle RATING: 4
JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo RATING: 5
Tom STRYKER
system play:UTEP..
5*Fla..
4*Va..
3* Mia Oh,ND,Tulsa
2* Boise..
Red Zone Sports
WAC GOY Hawaii-3
Insider Sports Report
4* Arkansas/L.S.U. (NCAAF) UNDER 59.5
4* Texas -5.5 over Texas A&M (NCAAF)
3* Bowling Green -6.5 over Toledo (NCAAF)
Elite Sports Picks
Texas -5.5 over Texas A&M (NCAAF)
system play:UTEP..
5*Fla..
4*Va..
3* Mia Oh,ND,Tulsa
2* Boise..
Red Zone Sports
WAC GOY Hawaii-3
Insider Sports Report
4* Arkansas/L.S.U. (NCAAF) UNDER 59.5
4* Texas -5.5 over Texas A&M (NCAAF)
3* Bowling Green -6.5 over Toledo (NCAAF)
Elite Sports Picks
Texas -5.5 over Texas A&M (NCAAF)
