Ben Burns
NCAA FB
NEW MEXICO STATE (+10 or better)
Game: Fresno St. vs. New Mexico St. Game Time: 11/30/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: New Mexico St. Reason: I'm taking the points with NEW MEXICO STATE. This is a big game for the Aggies and I feel the number is too high. This will be the final game for 21 New Mexico State seniors, including five starters on defense, three on offense and two specialists. Additionally, QB Holbrook needs 126 yards to break the New Mexico State career record for total offense of 8,207 yards set by Cody Ledbetter (1991-95). He already owns the marks for attempts, completions, passing yards and touchdown passes. Holbrook and co. are averaging a healthy 31 points per game at home, leading to a 4-2 (3-1 ATS) record here. Overall, the 'Air Raid" offense ranks sixth nationally and second in the WAC with 332.7 passing yards per game. The Aggies are fourth in the conference in third-down conversions (39.8 percent) and total offense (423.8) and seventh in rushing (91.2) and red-zone success (75.6 percent). The defense hasn't been so good. However, there are some positives as the 26.8 points per game at home that the Aggies are allowing is respectable. Additionally, the Aggies' 23 sacks are the most by the program since 2001 and defense ranks fourth in the conference in rushing defense. As mentioned above, the defensive unit has five seniors. They'll be playing hard in their last game, particularly given that defensive coordinator Woody Widenhofer is retiring after a 40-year career. I like the Bulldogs as a team. However, I feel that they're ripe for a letdown after last week's big win over K-State assured them of a bowl appearance. Last year's game was played at Frenso State and was decided by just five points in a 23-18 Bulldogs win. Look for another close one this year with Holbrook breaking the school record and his team easily hanging within the generous number. *Main Event
NBA
OVER Seattle/Inidana (215 or better)
Game: Indiana Pacers vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 11/30/2007 10:35:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on Indiana and Seattle to finish OVER the total. After winning with the Sonics to go "over" the total three games ago, I successfully played on them to finish "under" the number in each of their last two games. Those last two results have kept tonight's number reasonably low and I feel that this should be a strong spot for the Sonics to record another "over." That's because they'll be facing a team that likes to run and down the floor. The last time that the Sonics faced a similar team (Memphis on 11/19) they combined for a whopping 233 points. Note that the Sonics rank last in the Western Conference in terms of scoring defense while the Pacers rank second last (behind only Memphis) in the East. The Pacers have already seen the OVER go 3-0 this season when playing a game with an over/under line of 210 or greater, bringing the OVER to 6-1 their last seven in that situation. They've seen five of their last seven games produce a minimum of 214 points and the only two that didn't do so were the two occasions when they played the second of back to back games - which they aren't doing tonight. Looking at the series history and we find the OVER at a perfect 8-0 the last eight meetings. I'm expecting more of the same tonight as this track meet sails above the posted total.
NCAA BB
MONTANA STATE (-25 or better)
Game: Alcorn State vs. Montana State Game Time: 11/30/2007 9:30:00 PM Prediction: Montana State Reason: I'm laying the points with MONTANA STATE. This is a mismatch and I expect it to get out of hand early. After a pair of losses on the raod, the Bobcats return home where they are 2-0 SU/ATS. They also take a major step down in class as the Braves are 0-4 getting outscored by an average margin of 90-60. While certainly not a national powerhouse, the Bobcats have the weapons to hand the Braves another beating. The Bobcats have a trio of veteran guards in Casey Durham, Mecklen Davis and Carlos Taylor. Freshman Bobby Howard has been making immediate contributions at power forward, while African center Divaldo Mbunga might be one of the impact newcomers in the Big Sky, having started out with 13.8 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Having faced the likes of UNLV and having beaten Boise State in their most recent game here, this is the easiest opponent that the Bobcats have seen. Look for them to "get healthy" with a wire-to-wire blowout, dropping the Braves to 0-4 ATS the last four times they were listed as road underdogs of greater than 12.5 points. *CBB Big Chalk GOM
NHL
MINNESOTA
Game: St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild Game Time: 11/30/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Wild Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. Challenged by their coach, the Wild responded with a solid win over a surging Phoenix team last time out. Playing with "revenge" from a 3-2 loss here on the first day of the month, I expect the Wild to build off the win over Phoenix and record their second straight victory. Prior to the November 1st loss, the Wild had beaten the Blues six straight times here. The Wild didn't just beat the Blues either, they beat them badly. Indeed, the Wild outscored the Blues by a 27-9 margin over that six game stretch. The Wild got Pavol Demitra back last game. That's important as he's a key part of their offense. With the victory, the Wild improved to 9-1-1 with him in the lineup. The Wild will surely have Niklas Backstrom between the pipes. Backstrom made 21 saves against the Coyotes to improve to an outstanding 21-2-4 with a 1.47 GAA and six shutouts all-time at the Xcel Energy Center. That includes a 7-1 mark (1.50 GAA) and two shutouts this season. Look fo Backstrom to continue his home ice dominance and the Wild to resume their home ice dominance in this series. *Personal Favorite
NCAA FB
NEW MEXICO STATE (+10 or better)
Game: Fresno St. vs. New Mexico St. Game Time: 11/30/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: New Mexico St. Reason: I'm taking the points with NEW MEXICO STATE. This is a big game for the Aggies and I feel the number is too high. This will be the final game for 21 New Mexico State seniors, including five starters on defense, three on offense and two specialists. Additionally, QB Holbrook needs 126 yards to break the New Mexico State career record for total offense of 8,207 yards set by Cody Ledbetter (1991-95). He already owns the marks for attempts, completions, passing yards and touchdown passes. Holbrook and co. are averaging a healthy 31 points per game at home, leading to a 4-2 (3-1 ATS) record here. Overall, the 'Air Raid" offense ranks sixth nationally and second in the WAC with 332.7 passing yards per game. The Aggies are fourth in the conference in third-down conversions (39.8 percent) and total offense (423.8) and seventh in rushing (91.2) and red-zone success (75.6 percent). The defense hasn't been so good. However, there are some positives as the 26.8 points per game at home that the Aggies are allowing is respectable. Additionally, the Aggies' 23 sacks are the most by the program since 2001 and defense ranks fourth in the conference in rushing defense. As mentioned above, the defensive unit has five seniors. They'll be playing hard in their last game, particularly given that defensive coordinator Woody Widenhofer is retiring after a 40-year career. I like the Bulldogs as a team. However, I feel that they're ripe for a letdown after last week's big win over K-State assured them of a bowl appearance. Last year's game was played at Frenso State and was decided by just five points in a 23-18 Bulldogs win. Look for another close one this year with Holbrook breaking the school record and his team easily hanging within the generous number. *Main Event
NBA
OVER Seattle/Inidana (215 or better)
Game: Indiana Pacers vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 11/30/2007 10:35:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on Indiana and Seattle to finish OVER the total. After winning with the Sonics to go "over" the total three games ago, I successfully played on them to finish "under" the number in each of their last two games. Those last two results have kept tonight's number reasonably low and I feel that this should be a strong spot for the Sonics to record another "over." That's because they'll be facing a team that likes to run and down the floor. The last time that the Sonics faced a similar team (Memphis on 11/19) they combined for a whopping 233 points. Note that the Sonics rank last in the Western Conference in terms of scoring defense while the Pacers rank second last (behind only Memphis) in the East. The Pacers have already seen the OVER go 3-0 this season when playing a game with an over/under line of 210 or greater, bringing the OVER to 6-1 their last seven in that situation. They've seen five of their last seven games produce a minimum of 214 points and the only two that didn't do so were the two occasions when they played the second of back to back games - which they aren't doing tonight. Looking at the series history and we find the OVER at a perfect 8-0 the last eight meetings. I'm expecting more of the same tonight as this track meet sails above the posted total.
NCAA BB
MONTANA STATE (-25 or better)
Game: Alcorn State vs. Montana State Game Time: 11/30/2007 9:30:00 PM Prediction: Montana State Reason: I'm laying the points with MONTANA STATE. This is a mismatch and I expect it to get out of hand early. After a pair of losses on the raod, the Bobcats return home where they are 2-0 SU/ATS. They also take a major step down in class as the Braves are 0-4 getting outscored by an average margin of 90-60. While certainly not a national powerhouse, the Bobcats have the weapons to hand the Braves another beating. The Bobcats have a trio of veteran guards in Casey Durham, Mecklen Davis and Carlos Taylor. Freshman Bobby Howard has been making immediate contributions at power forward, while African center Divaldo Mbunga might be one of the impact newcomers in the Big Sky, having started out with 13.8 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Having faced the likes of UNLV and having beaten Boise State in their most recent game here, this is the easiest opponent that the Bobcats have seen. Look for them to "get healthy" with a wire-to-wire blowout, dropping the Braves to 0-4 ATS the last four times they were listed as road underdogs of greater than 12.5 points. *CBB Big Chalk GOM
NHL
MINNESOTA
Game: St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild Game Time: 11/30/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Wild Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. Challenged by their coach, the Wild responded with a solid win over a surging Phoenix team last time out. Playing with "revenge" from a 3-2 loss here on the first day of the month, I expect the Wild to build off the win over Phoenix and record their second straight victory. Prior to the November 1st loss, the Wild had beaten the Blues six straight times here. The Wild didn't just beat the Blues either, they beat them badly. Indeed, the Wild outscored the Blues by a 27-9 margin over that six game stretch. The Wild got Pavol Demitra back last game. That's important as he's a key part of their offense. With the victory, the Wild improved to 9-1-1 with him in the lineup. The Wild will surely have Niklas Backstrom between the pipes. Backstrom made 21 saves against the Coyotes to improve to an outstanding 21-2-4 with a 1.47 GAA and six shutouts all-time at the Xcel Energy Center. That includes a 7-1 mark (1.50 GAA) and two shutouts this season. Look fo Backstrom to continue his home ice dominance and the Wild to resume their home ice dominance in this series. *Personal Favorite
