Burns NBA
OVER seattle/milwaukee (199 or better)
Game: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 12/7/2007 10:35:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on Milwaukee and Seattle to finish OVER the total. The Sonics have seen their last five games finish below the number. That's been due largely to some really high over/under lines though as three of those five games still produced a minimum of 205s. That string of "unders" has caused tonight's over/under line to be generously low. Facing a Milwaukee squad which allows more than 101 points per game on the road, I feel it is too low. The Bucks have seen the OVER go a profitable 41-26 since 2005 when facing a team from the Western Conference. During the same stretch, despite their last game staying below the number (it still finished with 210s!) the Bucks have seen the OVER go 23-11 when playing in the month of December. For the season, Seattle's games are still averaging greater than 205 combined while eight of Milwaukee's last 12 games have eclipsed the 200 mark. Facing a fairly stingy LA Clippers' defense, Seattle hit a season-best 54.5 percent of its three shots last time out. Meanwhile, Milwaukee gave up a season high 120s its last time out. I expect both teams to play a fast tempo and both to shoot the ball well. Look for that to lead to a high-scoring affair which finishes OVER the total. *Blue Chip
UNDER bulls/pistons (182 or better)
Game: Chicago Bulls vs. Detroit Pistons Game Time: 12/7/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Detroit and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a relatively high-scoring game against each other at Chicago last month. That game finished above the number with 190s. However, if not for a monster night (36 points) from Rasheed Wallace, that game would have been substantially lower-scoring. This season, the Pistons have been playing significantly lower-scoring games at home than they have on the road. Their "home defense" ranks second in the league, behind only the Celtics. Not surprisingly, the "over" has been profiftable when they've played on the road but the UNDER is 5-2 in their seven games. Meanwhile, the Bulls have played lower-scoring games away from Chicago and have seen the UNDER go 6-3 away from home for the season. Their "away defense" ranks third in the league. Both teams come off excellent defensive efforts. The Bulls traveled to Charlotte and limited the Bobcats to just 82 points. The Pistons were even better as they allowed a mere 76 in their visit to New Orleans. The last time the Pistons played on a Friday (two weeks ago vs. Philly) their game produced only 161 points. That brought the UNDER to 10-3 their last 13 "Friday games" and a profitable 29-14 since the beginning of the 2005 season. Looking back to the earlier meeting once again and we find that the defense really picked up towards the end of the game, as the teams produced just 37 points in the fourth quarter. Look for that type of defensive intensity from the opening tip in "Round 2" as the final combined score of this defensive battle falls beneath the number. *TV Total of the Month
OVER seattle/milwaukee (199 or better)
Game: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 12/7/2007 10:35:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on Milwaukee and Seattle to finish OVER the total. The Sonics have seen their last five games finish below the number. That's been due largely to some really high over/under lines though as three of those five games still produced a minimum of 205s. That string of "unders" has caused tonight's over/under line to be generously low. Facing a Milwaukee squad which allows more than 101 points per game on the road, I feel it is too low. The Bucks have seen the OVER go a profitable 41-26 since 2005 when facing a team from the Western Conference. During the same stretch, despite their last game staying below the number (it still finished with 210s!) the Bucks have seen the OVER go 23-11 when playing in the month of December. For the season, Seattle's games are still averaging greater than 205 combined while eight of Milwaukee's last 12 games have eclipsed the 200 mark. Facing a fairly stingy LA Clippers' defense, Seattle hit a season-best 54.5 percent of its three shots last time out. Meanwhile, Milwaukee gave up a season high 120s its last time out. I expect both teams to play a fast tempo and both to shoot the ball well. Look for that to lead to a high-scoring affair which finishes OVER the total. *Blue Chip
UNDER bulls/pistons (182 or better)
Game: Chicago Bulls vs. Detroit Pistons Game Time: 12/7/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Detroit and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a relatively high-scoring game against each other at Chicago last month. That game finished above the number with 190s. However, if not for a monster night (36 points) from Rasheed Wallace, that game would have been substantially lower-scoring. This season, the Pistons have been playing significantly lower-scoring games at home than they have on the road. Their "home defense" ranks second in the league, behind only the Celtics. Not surprisingly, the "over" has been profiftable when they've played on the road but the UNDER is 5-2 in their seven games. Meanwhile, the Bulls have played lower-scoring games away from Chicago and have seen the UNDER go 6-3 away from home for the season. Their "away defense" ranks third in the league. Both teams come off excellent defensive efforts. The Bulls traveled to Charlotte and limited the Bobcats to just 82 points. The Pistons were even better as they allowed a mere 76 in their visit to New Orleans. The last time the Pistons played on a Friday (two weeks ago vs. Philly) their game produced only 161 points. That brought the UNDER to 10-3 their last 13 "Friday games" and a profitable 29-14 since the beginning of the 2005 season. Looking back to the earlier meeting once again and we find that the defense really picked up towards the end of the game, as the teams produced just 37 points in the fourth quarter. Look for that type of defensive intensity from the opening tip in "Round 2" as the final combined score of this defensive battle falls beneath the number. *TV Total of the Month
