BEN BURNS
BLUE CHIP TOTAL
I'm playing on Hawaii and Boise State to finish UNDER the total. These teams have always had a reputation of being powerful offensive teams. That's not entirely true this year though, as Hawaii's offense is nothing like it used to be. While the Warriors run a "run and shoot offense," they are throwing fewer deep balls and are running more frequently. They come in averaging only 21 points per game including a mere 16.3 per game on the road. In those three road games, the Warriors managed only 264.7 yards per game. The Hawaii defense has really come around the last few weeks though. Three games ago, they held San Jose State to just 20 points. They followed that up by limiting Fresno State to 29. That doesn't sound all that impressive but that was on the road and the Bulldogs are a potent offensive team. Last time out, the Warriors were even better as they limited Louisiana Tech to just 14 points. Note that the Warriors have seen the UNDER go a profitable 14-6 their last 20 games (with a total) on turf. It's true that Boise State is strong offensively once again. Through five games, the Broncos are averaging 33.6 points. However, the defense has been even more impressive. The Broncos are allowing just 11.2 points per game and have held four of five opponents to a touchdown or less. In three home games, they are allowing a mere 5.7 points per game and only 278 total yards per game. Not surprisingly, both Boise home games which had a total finished comfortably under the number. Last year's meeting between these teams finished below the number and I expect tonight's game to do the same. *Blue Chip
IC Comp
College Football Friday
Comp Selection: 8 of 11 Comp Winners (5 of 6 winners):
Hawaii/Boise State Under 52.5
Hawaii beat this team 39-27 last year at home. You remember that game? That was in Hawaii and it was for the Conference Championship. Heck, I am a huge dog bettor but this is exactly why I am staying away from this game. After all, let me ask you a question. You want to lay 24 points to a Hawaii team that just won outright at Fresno State in overtime as 3 touchdown dogs? Or against a Hawaii team that covered against a Louisiana Tech taem and seems to be getting things figured out? Or, do you want to bet against Boise State who is fired up from last year's conference loss and plays this Hawaii team on their blue turf? If anything, I think Boise will take an early lead and I expect Hawaii to come back in the second half as they are still a young team and will look to get settled in by the second half. Boise State has covered their last 3 including winning at Southern Miss and covering a tough spread in which I think Vegas expected Boise State to win but hit the cover. Yet, the Broncos managed to cover that ballgame. Something interesting you can note is that Hawaii has covered the last 3 times these 2 teams have played and Boise State has covered the last 5 times before that. The public is on the over to a tune of 75% while just 25% is on the under. So, if you are looking to fade the pubilc here, the under would be a smart play. In fact, that will be my comp play today. As remember, in a conference game, defense is much more likely to take precedence. Of course, having said that, if you think Hawaii is going to be a strong play, you would lean over. But, given that Boise State has revenge and it's a conference game, I think this game shadows their strengths. Thus, my comp pick here is on the under. The under is 5-1 for Hawaii in Conference games and the under is 6-1 for Boise State in conference games which feeds my point about conference games typically going under. gl.
DCI
NHL
Season: 18-14 (.563)
Phoenix vs. OTTAWA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
N.Y. RANGERS 3, Toronto 2
Nashville 3, COLUMBUS 2
Vancouver vs. BUFFALO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Edmonton vs. CALGARY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
San Jose vs. ANAHEIM: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Carolina vs. LOS ANGELES: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Marc Lawrence Playbook
Friday, October 17th
BOISE ST over Hawaii by 21
You know Broncos head coach Chris Petersen has this game circled in blue
on his Boise State calendar: last year?s 39-27 win by the Warriors is just one
of only THREE SU losses the BSU leader has endured while compiling a stellar
28-3 SU record. There are lots of good numbers and reasons to play the Boys
in Blue this week, including a near-perfect 10-1 ATS log as conference home
chalk and a 6-1 ATS effort when playing with WAC revenge. But before we
open our wallet, we must note that Hawaii has covered three meetings
in a row against Boise ? plus the Warriors have shaken off a slow start to
show continued improvement and confi dence every week. Also don?t forget
that the Broncos fall into our ?5-0 Fat Cat Fade? scenario, a directive that
gives added value to the already substantial pointspread. If you have to get
involved in this one, our advice is to take the points.
Nick Bogdanovich
Medium Boise St. -24
Fri, 10/17/08 - 7:35 PMNick "BookieKiller" Parsons | NHL Money Line
double-dime bet8 BUF (-149)BetUS vs 7 VAN
Analysis: BUFFALO ? The Sabres were extra hungry entering this season and they?ve already proven to be a ?play on? team! Buffalo has won each of their first three games as, after missing the playoffs last season, their hunger has reached an all new level this season. The Canucks also entered this season with a full head of steam. They had an excellent camp before the season started and Vancouver started off the season with back to back wins over division rival Calgary before playing an awful game at Washington. However, after the ugly loss to the Capitals, the Canucks bounce back huge with an overtime win at Detroit last night. After a huge win over the defending Stanley Cup Champions, there won?t be much left in the tank for the Canucks tonight. That spells trouble against the refocused and re-energized Sabres on Friday! Buffalo is also coming off of a big win but it was Wednesday and it wasn?t the defending champions that they knocked off either. In other words, the Sabres are much better prepared for this game than the Canucks are, both mentally and physically. Buffalo is getting fantastic netminding from Ryan Miller and they have been excellent on the penalty kill. So far this season the Sabres have allowed just three goals in their three games and they?ve killed all 15 power plays! Even though Roberto Luongo is one of the best goalies in the game he has not been on top of his game recently as he?s allowed 12 goals in his last three starts! Also, it is expected that back-up goalie Curtis Sanford will get the start tonight in between the pipes since it?s the second night of a back to back situation for the Canucks. As a result, this one will be all Sabres and that makes Buffalo well worth the price!
